That is why what kinda American elite would want a nuclear war?
Their current super uber luxurious life would be gone.
From their current decadent life styles to fighting n killing n dying over clean water?
No elite would want that, I don’t want that.
Only crazies would want that.
This is why all progressive people of the world must welcome nuclear war as final end to fascism.
This is why all nucleophobia is racist and Islamophobic.
https://twitter.com/IsmailY54094388/status/1302402778162171907
When you compare WW II, Korea, Vietnam and then Iraq/Afghanistan you see that US military operations have become softer and nicer over the decades.
The 2020 China Military Power Report to Congress says that the new Type-055 Renhai Class cruiser “will likely be able to launch ASBMs and LACMs once these weapons are availableâ€. LACMs refers to land-attack cruise missiles.
The report comes in both classified and unclassified forms. The unclassified version does not present us with the evidence behind the assertion. But it would be a logical development, and would set Chinese warships apart from all others in the world. Arming cruisers with an equivalent weapon could be a game changer, extending their reach further into the Pacific. The first Renhai Class cruiser was only commissioned in January of this year. But already the 8th ship has been launched on August 30.
What I’d worry about, and what is more difficult to predict, are the knock on effects from a full counter value nuclear attack. People would be more concerned with clean drinking water and avoiding hunger than their internet connection.
As AK noted previously, the war would still be going on with whatever was left of countries’ conventional and non-nuclear unconventional arsenals. Society would be reorganized along totalitarian lines, meaning strict control over information resources. Large swathes of technological infrastructure would be destroyed anyway. So I stand by my initial claim that we’d be unlikely to be discussing the issue here, unless the war had happened decades ago and the rebuilding process to former technological levels had already commenced.
… would take out a circle of 60 miles or so
Nowhere close to that, order of magnitude less for lethal dose (if in the open) and that’s with much more powerful warheads than what constitutes most of the US and Russian arsenals today.
Actually, I'm not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China's anti-carrier missiles. And obviously, those medium-range ballistic missiles have nothing to do with Russia's new hypersonic cruise missiles, on which he's been focused.
Supposedly is the key word. You are reading too much of Admiral Martyanov sci-fi. Ballistic missiles can’t hit and destroy when equipped with conventional charge moving targets like aircraft carries.
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“Unsurprisingly, he claims carriers aren’t vulnerable to the Chinese missiles but he probably would be fired if he said otherwise.” – He would not be fired. Optimists are needed for various reasons but the alarm raising Kassandras like Robert Farley from The National Interest also are needed and they can be working an angle of creating another missile gap scare for the MIC as pointed by AP. And if I were the MIC I would pay a stipend to Martyanov to keep scaring us.
The ballistic missiles were developed for nuclear warheads and thus they are not an ideal delivery system for convention warheads particularly against moving targets like aircraft carriers that in 1-2 minutes can change their location by 1 km. The targeting and homing ability of Chinese ballistic missiles is limited even w/o countermeasures that can blind its radars and optics. Their maneuverability is also not that great. Thy can’t chase the aircraft carrier in horizontal plane. Their homing system must acquire the target once they leave the ionosphere and keep it. If it acquires the target too late it wont be able to steer and correct its direction. Here is an article from Taiwanese paper that has some numerical examples:
All the Ways Russia or China Could Sink a Navy Aircraft Carrier (Thousands Dead)
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/all-ways-russia-or-china-could-sink-navy-aircraft-carrier-thousands-dead-58197
If it is true that Russia will be able to mount a hypersonic glide vehicle on top of their ICBM that will have small drag and autonomous engine and thus will acquire much higher velocity (than the reentry vehicle of the ballistic missile) with supposedly increased maneuverability then indeed it might be a game changer, however all we know about them so far is form Russian media that some prototypes have been flown though not yet with the a ballistic carrier missile.
“And given the 737Max and all sorts of other disasters, I’m pretty skeptical of American competence right now, especially since we haven’t fought a war with anyone able to attack our carriers in three generations.” – I never got excited about what happened to 737M. The errors were made and turned out to be fatal in two cases but the principle was sound of how to cheaply make a better plane by adding larger and more efficient engines to the old frame. If the pilots were trained and made aware of the new “feature” everything would be more or less OK. If the 737M was delivered to Air Force during WWII after several accidents pilots would have learned to deal with the plane. There would be no issue. Many American (and Soviet as well) planes during WWII acquired the nickname of flying coffins yet they were produced in tens of thousands and they were designed and built here in the US and no engineers from Bangalore were involved. B-29 had to a accelerated very fast after the take off because otherwise its engines were catching fire of insufficient air cooling. In 45 months of war 52,651 accidents and 13,873 planes were lost inside the continental United States. Almost 1,000 Army planes disappeared en route from the US to foreign locations. 43,581 aircraft were lost overseas including 22,948 on combat missions and 20,633 attributed to non-combat causes overseas. The glitch of 737M would not be even noticed in war condition.
“But maybe the writer also has a “psychological make up that…wish[es] America ill†just like me…” – Perhaps I went too far but your initial comment to Karlin’s article made me wonder.
Nuclear War Head, relatively poor precision CEP of 400 yards (370 m).
The 4K18 was a Soviet medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile (also known as R-27K, where “K” stands for Korabelnaya which means “ship-related”) NATO SS-NX-13. The missile was a two-stage development of the single-stage R-27, the second stage containing the warhead as well as propulsion and terminal guidance.[4] Initial submarine testing began on 9 December 1972 on board the K-102, a project 605 class submarine, a modified Project 629/ NATO Golf class lengthened 17.1m (formerly B-121), to accommodate four launch tubes as well as the Rekord-2 fire control system, the Kasatka B-605 Target acquisition system and various improvements to the navigation and communications systems. Initial trials ended on 18 December 1972 because the Rekord-2 fire control system hadn’t been delivered yet. After a number of delays caused by several malfunctions, test firings were finally carried out between 11 September and 4 December 1973. Following the initial trials, the K-102 continued making trial launches with both the R-27 and the R-27K, until it was accepted for service on 15 August 1975.
Using external targeting data, the R-27K/SS-NX-13 would have been launched underwater to a range of between 350-400 nm (650–740 km), covering a “footprint” of 27 nm (50 km). The Maneuvering Re-Entry vehicle (MaRV) would then home in on the target with a Warhead yield was between 0.5-1 Mt.
The Russians have been the premier creators of missiles for quite some time.
I find it odd that they never built something like the DF-21D.
Perhaps they realize that it would not work.
Map of targeted areas in the USA. Given that each missile would take out a circle of 60 miles or so, almost all populated areas would be erased, including rural-feeling ones:
There would still be a few tends millions in the Dakotas.
Nowhere close to that, order of magnitude less for lethal dose (if in the open) and that's with much more powerful warheads than what constitutes most of the US and Russian arsenals today.
... would take out a circle of 60 miles or so
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Actually, I'm not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China's anti-carrier missiles. And obviously, those medium-range ballistic missiles have nothing to do with Russia's new hypersonic cruise missiles, on which he's been focused.
Supposedly is the key word. You are reading too much of Admiral Martyanov sci-fi. Ballistic missiles can’t hit and destroy when equipped with conventional charge moving targets like aircraft carries.
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Actually, I’m not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China’s anti-carrier missiles
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Mr Martyanov is highly sceptical of all Chinese military technological development including the DF-21D and DF-26B.
https://www.unz.com/?s=Df&Action=Search&ptype=all&commentsearch=only&commenter=Andrei+Martyanov
I suppose it depends on how extensively they choose to use them. AFAIK most of the populated areas (and many unpopulated areas, if they house missile silos or command centres) would disappear if the full arsenals are unleashed. You in Moscow and those of us on the American east coast, London, etc. would cease to exist.
Actually, I'm not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China's anti-carrier missiles. And obviously, those medium-range ballistic missiles have nothing to do with Russia's new hypersonic cruise missiles, on which he's been focused.
Supposedly is the key word. You are reading too much of Admiral Martyanov sci-fi. Ballistic missiles can’t hit and destroy when equipped with conventional charge moving targets like aircraft carries.
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The only link your provided on that subject was in Forbes by Loren Thompson, who runs the Lexington Institute, which I think is mostly a lobby for the military-industrial complex Unsurprisingly, he claims carriers aren’t vulnerable to the Chinese missiles but he probably would be fired if he said otherwise
This point can work two ways. Someone writing on behalf of the MCI could also exaggerate rivals’ prowess and capability in order to inspire more funding. The idea of falling behind or having become vulnerable would necessitate increased investment.
Supposedly is the key word. You are reading too much of Admiral Martyanov sci-fi. Ballistic missiles can’t hit and destroy when equipped with conventional charge moving targets like aircraft carries.
Actually, I’m not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China’s anti-carrier missiles. And obviously, those medium-range ballistic missiles have nothing to do with Russia’s new hypersonic cruise missiles, on which he’s been focused.
The only link your provided on that subject was in Forbes by Loren Thompson, who runs the Lexington Institute, which I think is mostly a lobby for the military-industrial complex. Unsurprisingly, he claims carriers aren’t vulnerable to the Chinese missiles but he probably would be fired if he said otherwise. I didn’t find his arguments very persuasive.
Obviously, nobody can be sure until war breaks out, and I’m certainly no expert. But over the years I’ve read numerous articles by seemingly-knowledgeable journalists making a pretty strong case. And given the 737Max and all sorts of other disasters, I’m pretty skeptical of American competence right now, especially since we haven’t fought a war with anyone able to attack our carriers in three generations.
The National Interest is a very mainstream and respectable publication, and ten seconds of Googling located a short piece that certainly seems to suggest that our carriers might be extremely vulnerable to those Chinese missiles:
But maybe the writer also has a “psychological make up that…wish[es] America ill” just like me…
This point can work two ways. Someone writing on behalf of the MCI could also exaggerate rivals’ prowess and capability in order to inspire more funding. The idea of falling behind or having become vulnerable would necessitate increased investment.
The only link your provided on that subject was in Forbes by Loren Thompson, who runs the Lexington Institute, which I think is mostly a lobby for the military-industrial complex Unsurprisingly, he claims carriers aren’t vulnerable to the Chinese missiles but he probably would be fired if he said otherwise
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Actually, I’m not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China’s anti-carrier missiles
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Correct, but only if we are living in places like New Zealand or Argentina. And sub-Saharan Africa, Laos, Papua New Guinea, etc. How many of us are?Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board.
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Unlikely, but that’s another discussion. (The destructive potential of nukes, while obviously huge, nonetheless falls decidedly short of their portrayal in popular culture).
Correct, but only if we are living in places like New Zealand or Argentina. And sub-Saharan Africa, Laos, Papua New Guinea, etc. How many of us are?Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board.
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Well, I'd agree that Italy, Spain, and Britain did very badly, but I'd argue that the US did even worse, especially since the outbreak arrived here later and we had more time to get prepared. Given the timelag and the enormous size of our country, our estimated per capita deaths haven't quite overtaken those other countries, but seem likely to do so.
The US response to covid was not worse than many other Western countries who had much more centralized governments than the US.
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You seem rather "excitable." For years all sorts of seemingly-knowledgeable military experts have provided very harsh criticisms of our defense budget and military technology, with the enormously expensive F-35 program and our carrier groups being particular targets. I've always found their analyses pretty persuasive, but had lingering doubts since the topic obviously couldn't be fully resolved until actual wartime use.
Extrapolating the response to corvid by the insinuation that American military potential is equally inept and deficient as US response to covid is pure demagoguery and manipulation. While any intellectually speculation should be welcomed in you case one sniff too much of wish full thinking bordering on Shadenfreude. One may wonder where does it come from in your psychological make up that you wish America ill.
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(1) Hype of hypersonic weapons and alleged ballistic thread to aircraft carries
Why China Can’t Target U.S. Aircraft Carriers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2019/08/09/why-china-cant-target-u-s-aircraft-carriers/#3ea443b3716a
Incoming: Can Aircraft Carriers Survive Hypersonic Weapons?
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2019/3/22/incoming-can-aircraft-carriers-survive-hypersonic-weapons
Don’t believe Putin’s hype about hypersonic missiles
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/12/31/commentary/world-commentary/dont-believe-putins-hype-hypersonic-missiles/
Hypersonic Weapons Hype?
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/03/20/hypersonic-weapons-hype/
(2). “the enormously expensive F-35 program” – But F-35 work and are excellent machines. So far 555 F-35 were manufactured. US military services plan to acquire 2,600 F-35 jet fighters which in combination with the existing F-22, F15, F-18 and F-16 exceed in quality and quantity what Russian and China has and will have in foreseeable future.
(3) Or do you believe that the American military has some super-secret defense weapon? – No I do not except that US has advantage in implementation of laser weapons and electromagnatic kinetic weapons. And most importantly the US has advantage in countermeasure and integration of the battlefield into the cyber battlefield where all possible data inputs are integrated and used using AI decision making. I believe that American Navy and Air Force tradition counts for something just like it counted during sea battles agains Japan in WWII when tactics and good decisions on part of Americans decide on outcomes of some battle when American did not have numerical advantage. When it comes to Navy experience Russia and China are where Russia was in 1905. When in comes to Air Force China has zero experience.
(4) “However, I think the utter and total incompetence ” – As I said before the incompetence was unavoidable once the US like most of the European countries were sucked into the paradigm of “curve faltering ” versus “herd immunity” which as A. Karlin called it was an idiot’s limbo trap. Be honest, only the strategy of virus elimination. like in Taiwan or NZ would satisfy you. But for some reason this strategy was never put on the table starting with England and their “herd immunity” fantasizing and followed by the US. I do not try to absolve our idiot president and all the cunctators form the CDC who advocated agains mask wearing but they including the idiot president exactly what pretty much all other leaders and CDC’s were doing in the Western world except for New Zealand.
(5) ” You seem rather “excitable.†“ – Perhaps but it sometime take an excitable person to tell the truth how he sees it to somebody who hide being multi level dissimulations and fake rationalism while really being ruled by hidden emotions and resentments.
Actually, I'm not sure that Martyanov has ever discussed China's anti-carrier missiles. And obviously, those medium-range ballistic missiles have nothing to do with Russia's new hypersonic cruise missiles, on which he's been focused.
Supposedly is the key word. You are reading too much of Admiral Martyanov sci-fi. Ballistic missiles can’t hit and destroy when equipped with conventional charge moving targets like aircraft carries.
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Message boards? Nah.
c.2000 style message board.
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BBS and Yahoo Chat Rooms, newfag
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board.
Correct, but only if we are living in places like New Zealand or Argentina. And sub-Saharan Africa, Laos, Papua New Guinea, etc. How many of us are?
- Interesting. Do they have more cardboard and plywood to get even more deterrence?Replies: @Blinky Bill
"[thye] don’t even need to work in order to have a huge impact "
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Yes.
The US response to covid was not worse than many other Western countries who had much more centralized governments than the US.
Well, I’d agree that Italy, Spain, and Britain did very badly, but I’d argue that the US did even worse, especially since the outbreak arrived here later and we had more time to get prepared. Given the timelag and the enormous size of our country, our estimated per capita deaths haven’t quite overtaken those other countries, but seem likely to do so.
Extrapolating the response to corvid by the insinuation that American military potential is equally inept and deficient as US response to covid is pure demagoguery and manipulation. While any intellectually speculation should be welcomed in you case one sniff too much of wish full thinking bordering on Shadenfreude. One may wonder where does it come from in your psychological make up that you wish America ill.
You seem rather “excitable.” For years all sorts of seemingly-knowledgeable military experts have provided very harsh criticisms of our defense budget and military technology, with the enormously expensive F-35 program and our carrier groups being particular targets. I’ve always found their analyses pretty persuasive, but had lingering doubts since the topic obviously couldn’t be fully resolved until actual wartime use.
However, I think the utter and total incompetence of the US reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak tends to shift my presumption, and leads me to believe they’re probably correct. The massive wave of uncontrolled nationwide riots and looting surely has a similar effect. I’d also note that a year or two ago we discovered that the FAA had allowed Boeing’s Max jets to go into service although they had a tendency to sometimes fly themselves into the ground, a fact that the FAA later attempted to conceal.
When governments reveal themselves to be totally incompetent in matters that you can directly check, you naturally become much more skeptical that they’re extremely competent in things that you can’t.
As another commenter just emphasized, carriers are gigantic objects which even cheap and rudimentary satellites could easily track. As far as I can tell, almost everyone agrees that China’s anti-carrier ballistic missiles have no effective defense. So what part of my analysis was mistaken?
Or do you believe that the American military has some super-secret defense weapon? Given the US government, I’d think they would have endlessly boasted about it by now. Maybe it was developed by all the genius black inventors we always see on Google and in our movies, and which Boeing has now promised to hire in large numbers.
“[thye] don’t even need to work in order to have a huge impact ”
– Interesting. Do they have more cardboard and plywood to get even more deterrence?
Both the DF-21D and DF-26B literally don’t even need to work in order to have a huge impact on US Navy operations in the West Pacific. They simply need to be a credible deterrent.
- Interesting. Do they have more cardboard and plywood to get even more deterrence?Replies: @Blinky Bill
"[thye] don’t even need to work in order to have a huge impact "
�
c.2000 style message board.
Message boards? Nah.
Usenet discussion groups that worked with old style dial-up modems were the pinnacle of Internet discourse.
Why I think carriers are white elephants:
Satellites capable of tracking a carrier are very cheap – in low orbit, the camera on an iPhone can do it. Technically, if you are tracking movement you only need the resolution of a few pixels. The satellite would need to be only about the size of an old brick phone or shoebox with solar panels folded. The standard cubesat. Made from commercially available parts, possible to create on an assembly line. Cost around $150,000, if assembled in the U.S.. Launch costs under $100,000, with ride-sharing. India launched 101, plus three bigger sats, on one medium-sized rocket. That was over three years ago.
Last I heard, about a year ago, there was a company nearing total, real-time coverage of the Earth’s surface, minus some areas near the poles. Tracking of container ships is done automatically, through software.
Drawbacks: they take a while to work into position. It’s done by dragging the solar panels, against air molecules. Launch infrastructure is pretty easy to target. Though, you could certainly launch a few with mobile launchers. Probably very susceptible to an EMP, but that would come with a high political cost, as it would lead to widespread disruptions.
Well, if those charts are intended to be an approximate measure of military effectiveness, there's obviously no way to be sure, but I'm politely skeptical.
Anyhow, here is their assessment of the MEI of the world’s only superpower and its two “near peer†competitors:
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The US response to covid was not worse than many other Western countries who had much more centralized governments than the US. All those countries were sucked into the half measure of dancing between the curve flattening ‘meme’ and the herd immunity ‘meme’. No country in the Western world proposed in clear terns the option of virus elimination on its territory and rally people to follow this policy. Only NZ and Taiwan successfully implemented the elimination strategy. They did it in much more humane approach than the draconian approach of China.
Extrapolating the response to corvid by the insinuation that American military potential is equally inept and deficient as US response to covid is pure demagoguery and manipulation. While any intellectually speculation should be welcomed in you case one sniff too much of wish full thinking bordering on Shadenfreude. One may wonder where does it come from in your psychological make up that you wish America ill.
Well, I'd agree that Italy, Spain, and Britain did very badly, but I'd argue that the US did even worse, especially since the outbreak arrived here later and we had more time to get prepared. Given the timelag and the enormous size of our country, our estimated per capita deaths haven't quite overtaken those other countries, but seem likely to do so.
The US response to covid was not worse than many other Western countries who had much more centralized governments than the US.
�
You seem rather "excitable." For years all sorts of seemingly-knowledgeable military experts have provided very harsh criticisms of our defense budget and military technology, with the enormously expensive F-35 program and our carrier groups being particular targets. I've always found their analyses pretty persuasive, but had lingering doubts since the topic obviously couldn't be fully resolved until actual wartime use.
Extrapolating the response to corvid by the insinuation that American military potential is equally inept and deficient as US response to covid is pure demagoguery and manipulation. While any intellectually speculation should be welcomed in you case one sniff too much of wish full thinking bordering on Shadenfreude. One may wonder where does it come from in your psychological make up that you wish America ill.
�
Sure, that makes perfect sense. But although I haven't looked into military technology in decades, here's a very simple question...
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 – now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon...If you have a third of someone’s naval strength, a reasonable “practical†interpretation of that is that you would be able to hold your own (or win) over your littoral waters
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” ballistic missiles that supposedly can kill our carriers “ – Supposedly is the key word. You are reading too much of Admiral Martyanov sci-fi. Ballistic missiles can’t hit and destroy when equipped with conventional charge moving targets like aircraft carries.
I now embrace the prospect of nuclear war.Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board
�
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board
I now embrace the prospect of nuclear war.
The same can be said about the Russians. They just grew tired of guerilla warfare.
Brits faced a similar dilemma during the Second Anglo-Boer War. They were sitting ducks against often leaderless elusive and highly mobile Boers on horseback armed with Mauser rifles, the original ‘Commandos’.
The British Empire only prevailed after setting up concentrations camps for enemy women and children which forced Boers to quit. Then again Boers are fundamentally European in terms of culture.
Well, if those charts are intended to be an approximate measure of military effectiveness, there's obviously no way to be sure, but I'm politely skeptical.
Anyhow, here is their assessment of the MEI of the world’s only superpower and its two “near peer†competitors:
�
Propaganda works because Americans are crass by nature.
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board. Nuclear war wouldn’t have destroyed industrial/technological civilization, but it will surely have knocked back Moore’s Law by a decade or two, along with stalling general tech development development for a similar period.
I now embrace the prospect of nuclear war.Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board
�
Message boards? Nah.
c.2000 style message board.
�
Correct, but only if we are living in places like New Zealand or Argentina. And sub-Saharan Africa, Laos, Papua New Guinea, etc. How many of us are?Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin
In fairness, there’s a reasonable chance we’d be discussing it, we’d just likely be doing it on a c.2000 style message board.
�
Sure, that makes perfect sense. But although I haven't looked into military technology in decades, here's a very simple question...
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 – now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon...If you have a third of someone’s naval strength, a reasonable “practical†interpretation of that is that you would be able to hold your own (or win) over your littoral waters
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This is a good question, that is surely true, if it turns out that the DF-21 can reliably hit US carriers, making it a silver bullet sort of weapon – this is something we’ll only find out in a real war. Other considerations: To work, it will also need constant real-time information on the local of said American carrier. That’s what military satellites are for. Does the US know where China’s are? Can it bring them down? If it does, will Russia feed China information from theirs? I don’t have a clue about any of those questions either.
I agree with you on the fundamental point, a much worse than expected outcome in a hot war is likely to trigger a major crisis in the US.
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 - now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon.
Similarly, do our exceptionally complex and expensive weapons work? Who knows, but real-life tests of other aspects of American society in recent years haven’t been too encouraging.
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Now that is pure delusion. But it's also what most Americans believe, I would think. Decades of knocking about various Third World countries has created dangerous delusions.
The US has the most powerful navy in the world. If you split off a carrier battle group and gave it to Montenegro then Montenegro would have the second most powerful navy in the world.
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For my entire life there has been talk of an imminent nuclear war. Hasn’t happened yet. Perhaps people have learned from the experience of poisoned gasses in WW I. It isn’t worth the costs of retaliation.
Wars are a permanent feature of human history. Nuclear weapons are enormously destructive but that doesn’t automatically mean that major international conflicts are going to stop happening.
Maybe it’s just that different calculations are involved, such as the Russian response to the unexpected and aggressive NATO extension to the East after German unification, or China’s calculation of the changing risks of a US first strike. The Chinese can see that ZioGlob/CIA USA 2020 is a completely different animal from Anglo USA 1965.
Wow, your entire life? That’s a really long time! It’s not that nuclear war is necessarily imminent, just that it would be disastrous if it happened. And, given a long enough timeline, it will happen. Also, I hate to be the bearer of logic here, but if a nuclear war had happened, it’s highly unlikely we’d be on this blog discussing it.
Since WW3 will be a nuclear ICBM war then Saudi Arabia's 5% of world military spending counts for nothing at all. So the focus seems to be on this chart:https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cmp-usa-russia-china-1940-2015.png- US military power is clearly dominant but growth is tailing off. For economic reasons, the MIC has probably captured the maximum amount of resources available. - Chinese military power comes in at less than half that of the US, but it seems to be entering a parabolic curve of extreme growth. It has top priority from the political leadership of the world's most dynamic economy.- Russian military power is only 1/3 of the US but it is still increasing, and actually accelerating - also with a political priority.The risk seems to be that the US ZioGlob/CIA are looking at the same chart and can only see their relative position worsening - particualrly with regards to China, and there are also some bad historical parallels. For example, in 1941 Hitler was in exactly the same position with regard to Soviet Russia. He was aware of the rapid Soviet industrialization of Russia and saw a "Window of Opportunity" for his invasion. If he didn't go for it he would never have his Eastern Empire.That begs the question of whether the NeoCons are crazy enough to False Flag China and try and knock it out in a "retaliatory" strike. Probably they are. They are already ramping up the MSM anti-China propaganda in every way possible.A separate problem with the Military Equipment Index is that the totals are actually misleading. On the face of it, The US is much more powerful than either China or Russia, but given the destructive power of modern ICBM's (wherever they come from) WW3 could be over in a couple of days with most military resources not coming into play at all.Replies: @Patricus
Based on it Military Equipment Index), for example, we see that the Russian share of global military spending in 2015 was 4 percent, while the MEI estimates its share of capabilities to be at 9.1 percent. On the flipside, Saudi Arabia accounts for over 5 percent of the world’s military spending but has around 1 percent of total capabilities.
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For my entire life there has been talk of an imminent nuclear war. Hasn’t happenned yet. Perhaps people have learned from the experience of poisoned gasses in WW I. It isn’t worth the costs of retaliation.
Wars are a permanent feature of human history. Nuclear weapons are enormously destructive but that doesn't automatically mean that major international conflicts are going to stop happening.
For my entire life there has been talk of an imminent nuclear war. Hasn’t happened yet. Perhaps people have learned from the experience of poisoned gasses in WW I. It isn’t worth the costs of retaliation.
�
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 - now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon.
Similarly, do our exceptionally complex and expensive weapons work? Who knows, but real-life tests of other aspects of American society in recent years haven’t been too encouraging.
�
Now that is pure delusion. But it's also what most Americans believe, I would think. Decades of knocking about various Third World countries has created dangerous delusions.
The US has the most powerful navy in the world. If you split off a carrier battle group and gave it to Montenegro then Montenegro would have the second most powerful navy in the world.
�
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 – now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon…If you have a third of someone’s naval strength, a reasonable “practical†interpretation of that is that you would be able to hold your own (or win) over your littoral waters
Sure, that makes perfect sense. But although I haven’t looked into military technology in decades, here’s a very simple question…
China has medium range ballistic missiles that supposedly can kill our carriers with no effective defense and do so from a distance far greater than their attack range. Suppose the US and China got into a war in the South China Sea, and China (very politely) warned us to leave the region, then destroyed our carriers if we failed to comply.
It seems to me that the destruction of one or more American carrier groups would be perceived as marking the end of worldwide American naval supremacy, especially since Russia now has those revolutionary hypersonic missiles. Maybe as a consequence, the dollar would collapse, thereby collapsing the American smoke-and-mirrors economy along with it.
Aside from going nuclear and maybe getting everyone killed, what could we do?
So maybe we then have a post-Tsushima 1905-style revolution, and we follow the battles in the War of the Texas Secession from our smartphones.
Again, a very simple and naive question from someone rather ignorant of current military affairs…
Well, if those charts are intended to be an approximate measure of military effectiveness, there's obviously no way to be sure, but I'm politely skeptical.
Anyhow, here is their assessment of the MEI of the world’s only superpower and its two “near peer†competitors:
�
Similarly, do our exceptionally complex and expensive weapons work? Who knows, but real-life tests of other aspects of American society in recent years haven’t been too encouraging.
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 – now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon.
E.g., from /r/worldnews, one of the world’s biggest forums: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ilop09/pentagon_report_china_now_has_worlds_largest_navy/
Most upvoted comment on that thread:
The US has the most powerful navy in the world. If you split off a carrier battle group and gave it to Montenegro then Montenegro would have the second most powerful navy in the world.
Now that is pure delusion. But it’s also what most Americans believe, I would think. Decades of knocking about various Third World countries has created dangerous delusions.
***
If you have a third of someone’s naval strength, a reasonable “practical” interpretation of that is that you would be able to hold your own (or win) over your littoral waters, especially considering that US naval assets are farflung whereas China’s are all concentrated in its vicinity. However, you would also expect to dominate a battlespace anywhere else (e.g., over the Indian Ocean… or Hawaii), and nor would you try to. I would think that this is an accurate reflection of US/Chinese naval strength at the present time.
Sure, that makes perfect sense. But although I haven't looked into military technology in decades, here's a very simple question...
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 – now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon...If you have a third of someone’s naval strength, a reasonable “practical†interpretation of that is that you would be able to hold your own (or win) over your littoral waters
�
However, you(China) would also (not)expect to dominate a battlespace anywhere else (e.g., over the Indian Ocean… or Hawaii), and nor would you(China) try to.
�
Well, if those charts are intended to be an approximate measure of military effectiveness, there's obviously no way to be sure, but I'm politely skeptical.
Anyhow, here is their assessment of the MEI of the world’s only superpower and its two “near peer†competitors:
�
The Tory party managing the Brexit narrative will show even Hollywood how propaganda is done.
Nuclear submarines have to keep pumps going for the reactors. Diesel-electric submarines operating on batteries can be very quiet and submarines with cryogenic oxygen systems have some capacity to run the diesels and recharge batteries while remaining submerged. Very dangerous when used in a coastal defense role.
Escorting fighters were not much of a factor in the B-29’s eventual success; it was Curtis LeMay’s decision to fly at night and engage in area incendiary attacks. Japanese night fighter and flak capability were quite limited, as were Japanese fire fighting resources.
They are. They can be less noisy than the nuclear subs. Close to your shores they are pretty valuable. The US Navy is of course not going to face surface combatants close to its shores, therefore non-nuclear subs are not as useful for it. Its allies naturally have such subs in most relevant theaters anyway.
Anyhow, here is their assessment of the MEI of the world’s only superpower and its two “near peer†competitors:
Well, if those charts are intended to be an approximate measure of military effectiveness, there’s obviously no way to be sure, but I’m politely skeptical.
This exercise reminds me a little of that WHO chart from January that ranked the US as being the country in the world best-prepared for a major disease epidemic, with Western Europe also placing very high. As I recall, China was regarded as rather vulnerable.
Instead, America has been about the *worst* in the world in our response, challenged only by India and Brazil.
I think there’s a major problem in focusing on inputs and assuming they strongly correlate with outputs. Since our health care spending is the greatest in the world, you’d think we had the most effective health care system, but it isn’t so.
Similarly, do our exceptionally complex and expensive weapons work? Who knows, but real-life tests of other aspects of American society in recent years haven’t been too encouraging.
Still, we do have the best propaganda in the world, which helps to cover up the other flaws.
The idea that Chinese military strength is a third (was a third in 2015 - now surely higher) of that of the US is still a massive change from popular conceptions of it as some kind of unchallenged hegemon.
Similarly, do our exceptionally complex and expensive weapons work? Who knows, but real-life tests of other aspects of American society in recent years haven’t been too encouraging.
�
Now that is pure delusion. But it's also what most Americans believe, I would think. Decades of knocking about various Third World countries has created dangerous delusions.
The US has the most powerful navy in the world. If you split off a carrier battle group and gave it to Montenegro then Montenegro would have the second most powerful navy in the world.
�
The same can be said about the Russians. They just grew tired of guerilla warfare.
Brits faced a similar dilemma during the Second Anglo-Boer War. They were sitting ducks against often leaderless elusive and highly mobile Boers on horseback armed with Mauser rifles, the original 'Commandos'.
The same can be said about the Russians. They just grew tired of guerilla warfare. �
How about platform effectiveness?
I agree. Polonium-210 is so much more effective.
Try Shamir’s latest post to help fill your needs – its a conspiracy theory masterpiece – but not very believable.
I mean, if the US had followed, say, Nazi Germany’s counter-insurgency practices in Belarus, then Afghanistan would have been quiescent for years. Its population would have also plummeted, as opposed to doubling since 2001. These types of colonial adventures are pretty meaningless for assessing proper Great Power conflicts, anyway.
That’s absurd. The US quickly defeated the resistance and suffered very few casualties in Afghanistan. Any other countries would have failed.
I agree that measuring the current inventory of equipment is valid. IMO there will be no time for nations to move factories or build new shipyards in the event of an all out military conflict between major powers. You will go to war with what you have on day one not what you might have next year.
A major intangible is combat experience. The Germans had a lot of it in 1940/41. Russia and France not so much and it showed in their inability to contain German offensives.
Then their are synergies. The most expensive weapons program in WW2 was not the atomic bomb. It was the B-29 bomber. While the B-29 was a most impressive airplane, flying higher, faster and with more payload than any other bomber it wasn’t very effective at first. As with the air war over Germany it wasn’t until fighters were available to escort the B-29’s were they able to get down low and burn down Japan’s cities. Add an atomic bomb and they became a war winner.
Seems as if additional parts have been added to the modules for the Type 003 aircraft carrier but – I'm not entirely sure – they are still not connected.
(Images via ChineseTiger1986 /PDF) pic.twitter.com/rDAkBWYnjT
— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) August 31, 2020
Based on it Military Equipment Index), for example, we see that the Russian share of global military spending in 2015 was 4 percent, while the MEI estimates its share of capabilities to be at 9.1 percent. On the flipside, Saudi Arabia accounts for over 5 percent of the world’s military spending but has around 1 percent of total capabilities.
Since WW3 will be a nuclear ICBM war then Saudi Arabia’s 5% of world military spending counts for nothing at all.
So the focus seems to be on this chart:
– US military power is clearly dominant but growth is tailing off. For economic reasons, the MIC has probably captured the maximum amount of resources available.
– Chinese military power comes in at less than half that of the US, but it seems to be entering a parabolic curve of extreme growth. It has top priority from the political leadership of the world’s most dynamic economy.
– Russian military power is only 1/3 of the US but it is still increasing, and actually accelerating – also with a political priority.
The risk seems to be that the US ZioGlob/CIA are looking at the same chart and can only see their relative position worsening – particualrly with regards to China, and there are also some bad historical parallels. For example, in 1941 Hitler was in exactly the same position with regard to Soviet Russia. He was aware of the rapid Soviet industrialization of Russia and saw a “Window of Opportunity” for his invasion. If he didn’t go for it he would never have his Eastern Empire.
That begs the question of whether the NeoCons are crazy enough to False Flag China and try and knock it out in a “retaliatory” strike. Probably they are. They are already ramping up the MSM anti-China propaganda in every way possible.
A separate problem with the Military Equipment Index is that the totals are actually misleading. On the face of it, The US is much more powerful than either China or Russia, but given the destructive power of modern ICBM’s (wherever they come from) WW3 could be over in a couple of days with most military resources not coming into play at all.
Are (non-nuclear launch platform) submarines still useful?
BREAKING – India attacks China
Last weekend India announced it “preemptively” took territory against China as a defensive play against “provocative” Chinese actions. The Special Frontier Force was used. SFF is not an Indian Army unit but a special operations unit designed for insurgency and manned by Tibetans in India. It is under the control of R&AW, India’s external intelligence agency.
According to Joshi, given the nature of the unit used this was a planned operation and not based on any Chinese move. He believes the report provocative Chinese action actually followed the planned operation and it is unwise for India to invite war.
https://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/
Another defense analyst/journalist and former military officer Ajai Shukla reports there was combat. The Tibetan company commander was killed. Chinese casualties. He seems to relish the prospect of backing an insurgency in Tibet.
I think further combat is imminent and support from China will arrive for the insurgents in Northeast India.
Americans can’t not brag about the size of their balls. It comes with the negrification of their culture.
We need a Navalny post from you, Anatoly.
Isn’t it funny how this “military grade nerve agent” never kills anyone? You get sick for a couple of weeks, then make a full recovery.
Bloat. The US army is advanced and mighty on paper, but they lack spirit, and most importantly determination thay is needed when fighting those kinds of enemies. Pesky humanism and niceness culture is to blame for the second one. The only way to beat guerrillas is total genocide, otherwise you lose no matter what
The problem is the US’s reliance on the muh international community – ie their pozzed and subhumanized westeen dick gobblers. They can’t go full measure because they gotta hold up that semblance of reputation as the “nice guy” even though actual humans know better
I believe that the second LHD 75, which caught fire in April, sailed recently. The announced plan is to construct three of these and use them in the field. It is big enough to be an interesting fleet component. We will have to see what kind of force and doctrine they build up around it.
PEACE 😇
_______
According to several eyewitnesses a fire broke out this morning on the 1st PLAN Type 075 LHD, which is currently being fitted out at the Hudong shipyard in Shanghai.
It seems as if the fire was quickly put out but how it will affect the ship's schedule is not clear now. pic.twitter.com/OZCYjbRe1t
— @Rupprecht_A (@RupprechtDeino) April 11, 2020
China doesn’t seem to put a high priority on aircraft carriers or amphibious assault ships. It seems that they invest more in defending their coastline than force projection.
We spend too much on Central Command. We shouldn’t have troops in a lot of those places.
It’s weird to contrast those charts of supreme U.S. military capability with the U.S. military getting fought to a standstill by goatherds in Afghanistan for 19 years. What’s the point of all of it?
The simplest approach is often the best. Too much modelling and it becomes wishful thinking – see epidemiology or climatology. Stick with your index.
With the acquisition of submarines of the 2015-2020 period, Russia must be slightly higher now. She should be slowly rising during the newt years while China should be rising faster. USA is kept at constant level and the rest of NATO slowly going down.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
West Ukraine is under developed.
You are fantasizing as usual.
Lviv is more highly developed than Luhansk.
I am happy they have less HIV cases. They also stand on their knees like slaves when their heroes come back in caskets.
I didn’t know that slaves knelt to honor their war dead.
I guess these guys are slaves according to you?
I guess the American guy here is also a slave in your Sovok world?
Central Ukraine does not like your svidomi kind either.
LOL, more fantasies.
No the political problem was because Lviv’s mayor refused to support Poroshenko.
Sharii’s wife talking here about Poroshenko’s shit propaganda channel. They went to a local protest and tried to pass it off as anti shteinmeyer formula protest. People come up to journo who is running a live segment and call her a liar on live TV. Poroshenko’s channel turns off cameras waits until later in the day and then restarts again trying to pass off the crowd as anti shteinmeyer formula protest.
With these warriors and propagandists I fear there is no future for west Ukraine ubermench.
Lviv has twice the population of Luhansk.
comparing backward rural area of Ukraine
�
Only good state for Donbas was money - thanks to export of steel and coal.
Also ignoring good stats in other Eastern regions
�
Center is worse than west, better than Donbas. Not identical.
ignoring how identical central regions look to east.
�
You are projecting again.Replies: @Dreadilk
pass his fantasy as reality.
�
West Ukraine is under developed. Everything you say can be explained by this fact. Besides the fact that you can’t even understand the bs paper you pushing.
I am happy they have less HIV cases. They also stand on their knees like slaves when their heroes come back in caskets.
Central Ukraine does not like your svidomi kind either. Also funny you talk shit about Buzina since he can’t defend him self because Nazis killed him.
You are fantasizing as usual.
West Ukraine is under developed.
�
I didn't know that slaves knelt to honor their war dead.
I am happy they have less HIV cases. They also stand on their knees like slaves when their heroes come back in caskets.
�
LOL, more fantasies.
Central Ukraine does not like your svidomi kind either.
�
Political problems between Lviv mayor and Poroshenko. Toronto was also swimming in garbage due to some trouble with unions. The difference is that Lviv managed it well by still removing the garbage from much of the center whereas Toronto:
Just a couple of years ago Lvov and Vinitsia were swimming in garbage
�
The political problem was over the west being poor and not being able to afford to pay for garbage services.
Just a couple of years ago Lvov and Vinitsia were swimming in garbage
Political problems between Lviv mayor and Poroshenko. Toronto was also swimming in garbage due to some trouble with unions. The difference is that Lviv managed it well by still removing the garbage from much of the center whereas Toronto:
comparing backward rural area of Ukraine
Lviv has twice the population of Luhansk.
Also ignoring good stats in other Eastern regions
Only good state for Donbas was money – thanks to export of steel and coal.
ignoring how identical central regions look to east.
Center is worse than west, better than Donbas. Not identical.
pass his fantasy as reality.
You are projecting again.
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards - but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
clean or elegant as Donetsk?
�
It is a very objective report - they criticize as much as they praise.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
�
Donetsk almost doesn't have prerevolutionary architecture, unlike Vinnitsa or Kharkov. However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities). Condition of all three of those cities is/was quite good though. Donetsk was a successful and elegant city.Replies: @AP, @Dreadilk
Compared even to Kharkiv or Vinnytsia (never mind Venice).�
Just a couple of years ago Lvov and Vinitsia were swimming in garbage because they did not have enough money to pay for the services.
Political problems between Lviv mayor and Poroshenko. Toronto was also swimming in garbage due to some trouble with unions. The difference is that Lviv managed it well by still removing the garbage from much of the center whereas Toronto:
Just a couple of years ago Lvov and Vinitsia were swimming in garbage
�
This I don't doubt, but again, it's a religious peasant region, which makes it a poor point of comparison. I'm sure people in Des Moines sleep around less than those in New York City, but that's comparing apples and pears.Replies: @AP, @Dreadilk
People in Lviv are less likely to be junkies and less likely to sleep around.
�
This. He is comparing backward rural area of Ukraine with heavily industrialized high density areas. Also ignoring good stats in other Eastern regions and ignoring how identical central regions look to east.
I personally like rural but as far as comparisons go he is trying to pass his fantasy as reality.
Lviv has twice the population of Luhansk.
comparing backward rural area of Ukraine
�
Only good state for Donbas was money - thanks to export of steel and coal.
Also ignoring good stats in other Eastern regions
�
Center is worse than west, better than Donbas. Not identical.
ignoring how identical central regions look to east.
�
You are projecting again.Replies: @Dreadilk
pass his fantasy as reality.
�
You cannot say it is America which is responsible for the HIV epidemic. American and European epidemiologists have published for years about how to contain this epidemic. But authorities in Russia and Ukraine, do not comply with the recommendations, and the result was predictable. From little I know, this was on a federal government level primarily. However, on a local government level, there were people like Roizman which drug chain addicts to the bed - we are talking about idiots who can't follow the advice of epidemiologists who studied the causes and solutions for HIV epidemics.Replies: @Dmitry, @Dreadilk
past the CIA to try and push it to damage societies of it’s enemies�
US has it’s own drug epidemic to be giving advice.
funny to note the masquerading as a medical professional, when given your comments on HIV /aids it is impossible to think you are one
AK knows who I am and can confirm.
I want to remain anon so I do not detail by specialty, I only state I have a doctoral degree (MD, DO, PhD or D Pharm) and work in a hospital and private office.
OTOH it is funny that as a sovok civil “engineer” you consistently fail at math.
a lot of Jews from Donbas have settled
Young people will go often to Kiev, Moscow.
You can see on social media, younger professionals in Kiev who are refugees from Donetsk.
none in Galicia,
There is a small Jewish private school in Lvov (so they must have some there, at least to sustain a very small school).
Jewish populations in Ukraine will be older, and immobile (not moving between cities according to quality of life differences).
In Donetsk, generally, the old people stay – and most of the young have exited because of the war.
Did you see difference in cleanliness? I didn't.
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards – but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
�
The point is that if it were objective they would criticize more than they praise.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.It is a very objective report – they criticize as much as they praise.�
HDI by oblast. Unfortunately it only goes to 2001:http://www.miamioh.edu/cas/_files/documents/havighurst/2007/skryzhevska.pdfPage 10. Donbas went from being first in Ukraine outside Kiev in 1994, to dead last by 2001.http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/ukraine_nhdr_2008_en.pdfPage 83. Donbas was still dead last in 2005.(I don't have more time to spend googling this stuff).(wikie has HDI by region but not by oblast, so Lviv is mixed together with backward Volyn, Donbas with high HDI Kharkiv)Low life expectancy, high crime, low HDI, high HIV - picture doesn't add up to the place being elegant, clean, civilized or successful.Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities).
�
Did you see difference in cleanliness? I didn’t.
Yes I could see it appears better maintained in Donetsk compared to either of those cities (particularly things like quantity of holes in roads/sidewalks). This is on Yandex and Google photos of the city which were filmed in 2012.
(Obviously now, the situation in Donetsk is ruined).
Low life expectancy, high crime, low HDI
High income, clean/elegant streets, above average education.
– You can find contrary indications. Overall, the city was not bad at all (for regional standards).
LOL, Sovok "engineer" can't do basic math, of course. While adjusting for urban/rural makes a small difference it is not nearly enough.
It is primarily an urban disease, risk of it spreading is exponentially higher in urban areas compared to rural areas obviously , so even though Lvov has a urban to rural population ratio of 3:2, and Donetsk and Lugansk are both ratios of about 9:1…….the infection rate in Donbass was only 3/4 times larger than shithole Lvov, despite 9 times larger urban ratio.
�
Although I wouldn't doubt that there are few doctors in the Carpathian mountain villages, you claimed that HIV is an urban phenomenon.
Let’s not forget that, objectively the hospitals in the Donbass, kiev and much of the south are far superior in facilities, serve a much higher proportion of people in concentrated areas…which simply means western ukraine is woefully underdiagnosed
�
Those regions are in central not western Ukraine, and are lower than in Donetsk.
As if your argument wasn’t dumb and insidious enough with kiev city not listed, Odessa clearly always high……it gets worse with Khmelnitsky and Cherkassy very high on the list
�
1. Sovok "engineer" doesn't know that 2015 comes before 2019.
“nearly 1% of pregnant women in Donbass had HIVâ€.
LOL- current rate in Ukraine ( at least officially) is over 1% of the population having HIV
�
Too many lies to bother countering now ( plus Karlin atrocious ban)…….funny to note the masquerading as a medical professional, when given your comments on HIV /aids it is impossible to think you are one…….is not denied.
Hasn’t the North Caucasus-lite for Ukrops lowest producer of politicians, judges, scientists, performing artists, engineers, sportsmen…..already been fully explained?
AK knows who I am and can confirm.
funny to note the masquerading as a medical professional, when given your comments on HIV /aids it is impossible to think you are one
�
Please be kind with AP, he still havent gotten over the fact that disease-ridden, uncivilised, dirty and overall inferior sovoki made his *shchyryje* ukraintse run away , utterly beaten and disgraced, their NATO overlords having led them to defeat.
And the fact that the whole clown parade exists only because V.V. Putin gave a tacit accord in ’14, as the airmobile brigade that saved the Krym from fascists could in 24h be in Kiev and end the posturing Banderists in a very decisive manner.
I suppose he was tired with paying for the whole mess.
1.6 was Luhansk. Donetsk was 1.0.
Looks to me that Vinitska Oblast has less Jews (1.2) living within than Donetska Oblast (1.6)? Still, 1.2 is quite high. Vinitska Oblast is quite well off, it’s the home of a lot of Poroshenko’s cronies, including Groisman, if I’m not mistaken. Nemiroff is either located within or in neighboring Khmelnitsky oblast.
Percentage of Jews by oblast in 2010:
Luhansk was in first place, followed by Dnipropetrovsk. Pretty much none in Galicia, which had once been 10% Jewish, because the native Jews there were utterly wiped out there during World War II, and the post-Soviet colonists (the most famous of whom being the Russian liberal politician Yavlinsky) fled after 1990.
Due to the patronage of Kolomoysky, a lot of Jews from Donbas have settled in Dnipropetrovsk:
https://qz.com/347948/the-ukrainian-city-thats-become-a-haven-for-jews-fleeing-another-european-war/
Young people will go often to Kiev, Moscow. You can see on social media, younger professionals in Kiev who are refugees from Donetsk.
a lot of Jews from Donbas have settled
�
There is a small Jewish private school in Lvov (so they must have some there, at least to sustain a very small school).
none in Galicia, �
Did you see difference in cleanliness? I didn't.
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards – but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
�
The point is that if it were objective they would criticize more than they praise.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.It is a very objective report – they criticize as much as they praise.�
HDI by oblast. Unfortunately it only goes to 2001:http://www.miamioh.edu/cas/_files/documents/havighurst/2007/skryzhevska.pdfPage 10. Donbas went from being first in Ukraine outside Kiev in 1994, to dead last by 2001.http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/ukraine_nhdr_2008_en.pdfPage 83. Donbas was still dead last in 2005.(I don't have more time to spend googling this stuff).(wikie has HDI by region but not by oblast, so Lviv is mixed together with backward Volyn, Donbas with high HDI Kharkiv)Low life expectancy, high crime, low HDI, high HIV - picture doesn't add up to the place being elegant, clean, civilized or successful.Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities).
�
Any stats on where urban, educated Jews chose to live during pre and post-revolutionary times in Vinnitsa vs Donetsk? They usually know where the better places are located?
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards - but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
clean or elegant as Donetsk?
�
It is a very objective report - they criticize as much as they praise.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
�
Donetsk almost doesn't have prerevolutionary architecture, unlike Vinnitsa or Kharkov. However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities). Condition of all three of those cities is/was quite good though. Donetsk was a successful and elegant city.Replies: @AP, @Dreadilk
Compared even to Kharkiv or Vinnytsia (never mind Venice).�
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards – but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
Did you see difference in cleanliness? I didn’t.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
It is a very objective report – they criticize as much as they praise.
The point is that if it were objective they would criticize more than they praise.
However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities).
HDI by oblast. Unfortunately it only goes to 2001:
http://www.miamioh.edu/cas/_files/documents/havighurst/2007/skryzhevska.pdf
Page 10. Donbas went from being first in Ukraine outside Kiev in 1994, to dead last by 2001.
http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/ukraine_nhdr_2008_en.pdf
Page 83. Donbas was still dead last in 2005.
(I don’t have more time to spend googling this stuff).
(wikie has HDI by region but not by oblast, so Lviv is mixed together with backward Volyn, Donbas with high HDI Kharkiv)
Low life expectancy, high crime, low HDI, high HIV – picture doesn’t add up to the place being elegant, clean, civilized or successful.
Yes I could see it appears better maintained in Donetsk compared to either of those cities (particularly things like quantity of holes in roads/sidewalks). This is on Yandex and Google photos of the city which were filmed in 2012. (Obviously now, the situation in Donetsk is ruined).
Did you see difference in cleanliness? I didn’t.�
High income, clean/elegant streets, above average education. - You can find contrary indications. Overall, the city was not bad at all (for regional standards).
Low life expectancy, high crime, low HDI
�
It is primarily an urban disease, risk of it spreading is exponentially higher in urban areas compared to rural areas obviously , so even though Lvov has a urban to rural population ratio of 3:2, and Donetsk and Lugansk are both ratios of about 9:1…….the infection rate in Donbass was only 3/4 times larger than shithole Lvov, despite 9 times larger urban ratio.
LOL, Sovok “engineer” can’t do basic math, of course. While adjusting for urban/rural makes a small difference it is not nearly enough.
Total urban population in Lviv oblast is 1.5 million. In Luhansk oblast it is 2 million (though Lviv has about 800,00 people, Luhansk has only about 400,000.). So if indeed HIV is limited to urban areas only as you propose, one would expect Lviv oblast to have 75% HIV rate of Luhansk oblast.
However (Table 1), for 2005-2012:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4174506/
Lviv oblast had only about 33% as many sexually-transmitted HIV cases as did Luhansk oblast.
It had, overall, about 50% of Luhansk oblast’s HIV cases total (in Lviv HIV is transmitted through needles more than through sex, in Luhansk it is the opposite – you know, whoring around).
Donetsk oblast has about 3 times more urban people than does Lviv oblast. But, it’s number of HIV cases transmitted through sex was 12 times higher.
Let’s not forget that, objectively the hospitals in the Donbass, kiev and much of the south are far superior in facilities, serve a much higher proportion of people in concentrated areas…which simply means western ukraine is woefully underdiagnosed
Although I wouldn’t doubt that there are few doctors in the Carpathian mountain villages, you claimed that HIV is an urban phenomenon.
Well, Lviv has more urban doctors per patient than any other oblast:
http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/280701/UkraineHiT.pdf
Lviv’s medical university is ranked higher than the one in Donetsk (also higher than the ones in Odessa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk – but Zaporizhia’s is higher):
Overall, the best medical schools are in the country’s west.
Higher life expectancy also is suggestive of better medical care.
As if your argument wasn’t dumb and insidious enough with kiev city not listed, Odessa clearly always high……it gets worse with Khmelnitsky and Cherkassy very high on the list
Those regions are in central not western Ukraine, and are lower than in Donetsk.
Kiev City is listed here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4174506/
Lower rate than in Donetsk. About 2/3 rate of HIV transmitted by needles and only 1/4 the rate of HIV transmitted by sex as in Donetsk oblast.
“nearly 1% of pregnant women in Donbass had HIVâ€.
LOL- current rate in Ukraine ( at least officially) is over 1% of the population having HIV
1. Sovok “engineer” doesn’t know that 2015 comes before 2019.
2. Normally one would expect pregnant women to have a lower rate of HIV than the general population. Not so in your mind, apparently.
It was economically successful. It wasn't cleaner or more elegant than other cities.
shithole compared
Again, for the regional standards (both Ukraine and Russia) – before the war, Donetsk was elegant, clean, well organized and economically successful city.
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It's a promotional project of one of Donetsk's oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
your link is to a publication from
It’s a serious and objective report. They explain strengths and weaknesses of the region without any self-promotion. �
There aren't many holes in central Zhytomir or Kharkiv etc. sidewalks either.
Look at ulitsa Artema and tell me how stones are in the wrong place or holes in the road or sidewalk.
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Compared even to Kharkiv or Vinnytsia (never mind Venice).Replies: @Dmitry
City looked crappy.
Compared to Venice or Oxford or something.
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clean or elegant as Donetsk?
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards – but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
It is a very objective report – they criticize as much as they praise.
Compared even to Kharkiv or Vinnytsia (never mind Venice).
Donetsk almost doesn’t have prerevolutionary architecture, unlike Vinnitsa or Kharkov.
However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities).
Condition of all three of those cities is/was quite good though. Donetsk was a successful and elegant city.
Did you see difference in cleanliness? I didn't.
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards – but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
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The point is that if it were objective they would criticize more than they praise.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.It is a very objective report – they criticize as much as they praise.�
HDI by oblast. Unfortunately it only goes to 2001:http://www.miamioh.edu/cas/_files/documents/havighurst/2007/skryzhevska.pdfPage 10. Donbas went from being first in Ukraine outside Kiev in 1994, to dead last by 2001.http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/ukraine_nhdr_2008_en.pdfPage 83. Donbas was still dead last in 2005.(I don't have more time to spend googling this stuff).(wikie has HDI by region but not by oblast, so Lviv is mixed together with backward Volyn, Donbas with high HDI Kharkiv)Low life expectancy, high crime, low HDI, high HIV - picture doesn't add up to the place being elegant, clean, civilized or successful.Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry
However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities).
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Oh, I'm sure he was wrong lots of times, but dishonesty and lying take intent, which I don't see here. And remember that this anecdote might still be true. All we can say for now is that the source is unreliable.Replies: @AP
Taking some hearsay from a very dubious source and, based on that, proclaiming that Bandera was a cat-killer is rather dishonest.
Bandera was a jerk regardless of whether or not he killed cats as a child. This story doesn’t change it, but it is further confirmation that Buzyna was dishonest in his tendentious approach to Ukraine. I’ve only been familiar with two of his works, this one and some article of his about Galicia, and in both cases he was dishonest. The latter actually included outright lies.
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Oh, I’m sure he was wrong lots of times, but dishonesty and lying take intent, which I don’t see here.
He knew that his source was very suspect and treated the info from that source as truthful without providing caveats for readers. This is dishonest and in bad faith. Someone like insomniac resurrected repeating it would not be dishonest, merely gullible. I don’t think Buzyna was gullible.
Sorry for going on criticizing your data, but there is an important point to make here. What these two maps show, I'm sure, are outcomes of greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse in Donbass than elsewehere in Ukraine. Bad enough, sure, but my point is that when putting a region against others, you will often have some confounding variable or other (here, greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse) that makes pretty much all other data from that region look bad. And even with that said, note that the differences in life expectancy are pretty uniform across the country -- way below the Western European average.Replies: @AP
It was a shithole compared to Kharkiv. [...] Assault rate: [...] Life expectancy 2012: [...]
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What these two maps show, I’m sure, are outcomes of greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse in Donbass than elsewehere in Ukraine. Bad enough, sure, but my point is that when putting a region against others, you will often have some confounding variable or other (here, greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse) that makes pretty much all other data from that region look bad.
Good point. All this stuff goes together, though. American ghettos have high crime, high rates of STDs, high rates of substance abuse. Overall picture is that of a shithole. Same for Donbas.
And even with that said, note that the differences in life expectancy are pretty uniform across the country — way below the Western European average.
There was a 3.5 year difference between Lviv oblast and Donetsk oblast.
Data were from 2012. At that time it was indeed well below Western European averages, but Western Ukraine was about the same as that of the Baltic countries. In 2012, Russia’s life expectancy was 70.1 years.
As an aside, it is pleasant to be in an argument with someone who is honest. Thank you.
This I don't doubt, but again, it's a religious peasant region, which makes it a poor point of comparison. I'm sure people in Des Moines sleep around less than those in New York City, but that's comparing apples and pears.Replies: @AP, @Dreadilk
People in Lviv are less likely to be junkies and less likely to sleep around.
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This I don’t doubt, but again, it’s a religious peasant region, which makes it a poor point of comparison. I’m sure people in Des Moines sleep around less than those in New York City, but that’s comparing apples and pears.
Lviv is religious but it isn’t “peasant,” the city has a population of 800,000 people (4 times more than Des Moines). It has twice the population of Luhansk. Being “peasant” would not explain its 3 times lower rate of HIV than Luhansk.
Again, for the regional standards (both Ukraine and Russia) - before the war, Donetsk was elegant, clean, well organized and economically successful city. And with the most local rich people, after Kiev.
shithole compared
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And good maintenance of roads, trees, sidewalks and buildings. Fortunately, both Yandex and Google have photographed the city, from before the war. Look at ulitsa Artema and tell me how stones are in the wrong place or holes in the road or sidewalk.
some more expensive buildings.
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It's a serious and objective report. They explain strengths and weaknesses of the region without any self-promotion.
your link is to a publication from
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I cannot read this comment seriously. You would also call Ekaterinburg Africa, because of Dior shops and high HIV. (I never knew that Africa was distinguished by consumption of luxury products, it seems to be rather a dissimilarity from Africa).
Thugs wearing expensive clothes while living in a place with low expectancy, high crime, high HIV.Sounds like some parts of Africa:
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Compared to Venice or Oxford or something. For local standards of Ukraine/Russia, it was above average for the city of this size and historical era of construction.Replies: @AP
City looked crappy. �
shithole compared
Again, for the regional standards (both Ukraine and Russia) – before the war, Donetsk was elegant, clean, well organized and economically successful city.
It was economically successful. It wasn’t cleaner or more elegant than other cities.
The “best” Eastern Ukrainian city was and is Kharkiv. Its residents compared their city favorably to bandit-Donetsk.
Here is Vynnytsia:
Is it not as clean or elegant as Donetsk?
Kharkiv:
Same thing.
It is very odd to think of Donetsk as “clean” or “elegant” compared to other Ukrainian or Russian cities.
It was fortunate to have coal and steel, Ukraine’s main source of hard currency, so it had more money.
your link is to a publication from
It’s a serious and objective report. They explain strengths and weaknesses of the region without any self-promotion.
It’s a promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
Look at ulitsa Artema and tell me how stones are in the wrong place or holes in the road or sidewalk.
There aren’t many holes in central Zhytomir or Kharkiv etc. sidewalks either.
City looked crappy.
Compared to Venice or Oxford or something.
Compared even to Kharkiv or Vinnytsia (never mind Venice).
Vinnitsa has more prerevolutionary architecture, so better for postcards - but it appears to have somewhat worse maintenance and is less clean or tidy overall, than Donetsk was.
clean or elegant as Donetsk?
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It is a very objective report - they criticize as much as they praise.
promotional project of one of Donetsk’s oligarchs. It is expensively-made.
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Donetsk almost doesn't have prerevolutionary architecture, unlike Vinnitsa or Kharkov. However, the condition of the Donetsk was maintained better, without any doubt (you can see overall more holes, less tidy and less maintenance in those other cities). Condition of all three of those cities is/was quite good though. Donetsk was a successful and elegant city.Replies: @AP, @Dreadilk
Compared even to Kharkiv or Vinnytsia (never mind Venice).�
Always wrong.
(Though of course the so-called “Irish†are the most cucked nation in the world, stands to reason they’d support the AIDS-infected man of Europe. �
1. The map doesn’t show Kiev- probably the most important statistic for judging everything, even though it has been a centre for 3 decades of masses of Lvov whores migrating to- effectively makes the map even more useless
2. Odessa has always been the highest rate of HIV in the country you idiot( no surprise considering major port city with millions of tonnes of cargo passing, major beach tourist city in the country attracting plenty of Lvov whores to either visit or migrate there over the years ), followed by Dnepropetrovsk. Neither region of the Donbass has ever been in top position for HIV/AIDS in Ukrops history. Odessa is something like 950-1000 per 100000 people infected
3. It is primarily an urban disease, risk of it spreading is exponentially higher in urban areas compared to rural areas obviously , so even though Lvov has a urban to rural population ratio of 3:2, and Donetsk and Lugansk are both ratios of about 9:1…….the infection rate in Donbass was only 3/4 times larger than shithole Lvov, despite 9 times larger urban ratio. That pretty much makes Lvov, the city the worst city in repelling HIV in the whole country and the most promiscous! 10, 15 or 20 times less rate would be good for Lvov, 3.5 is a catastrophe
4.Let’s not forget that, objectively the hospitals in the Donbass, kiev and much of the south are far superior in facilities, serve a much higher proportion of people in concentrated areas….and certainly have a far higher proportion of qualified and educated medical professionals………which simply means western ukraine is woefully underdiagnosed
5. Zakarpattia is very low – geographically west, but certainly not “western ukrainian” in the Galicia fucktard sense
6.As if your argument wasn’t dumb and insidious enough with kiev city not listed, Odessa clearly always high……it gets worse with Khmelnitsky and Cherkassy very high on the list and Volyn not very low either! It’s a problem throughout the country
7. “nearly 1% of pregnant women in Donbass had HIV”.
LOL- current rate in Ukraine ( at least officially) is over 1% of the population having HIV- your witless drivel is just saying that not only pregnant but by extrapolation,ALL women in Donbass have considerably below national average for the infection you dummy!
8. Bearing in mind the point about worse hospital / lower diagnosis competency in the west- the stats NOW show Kiev controlled Lugansk significantly lower than Lvov in HIV! Something like 160 per 100000 in Lvov to 115 in Lugansk
9. This is the most disturbing and tragicomic point. I was reading through some of open thread 90 or whatever recent one of Karlin today. Hilariously, it seems soon after how I mentioned I was a Civil Engineer, you have blurted out in some obviously insanely jealous response, that you are some qualified medical professional!!!
LOL. I defy any sane person who has read your incompetent posts on this subject to actually think you are a qualified medic!- interchangeing the terms of “AIDS” and “HIV” in an obviously false and confused manner. …..not to mention in your lie about Donbass to defend Galicia whores showing inept confusing about the transmission of the disease ( intravenous drug use vs sex)….makes it absolutely impossible you are a qualified medic. There is simply zero chance a real one would talk about the issue like that. Utterly disturbing, in addition to faking the ability to speak Russian ( hilariously exposed ), that you would know create for yourself the role as a fantasist medic!
10. Try not to get Uncle Karlin to protect you from your cretinism this time. My points are quite undeniable
11. That “study” is clear BS – no surprise that even the WHO have nothing to do with it
LOL, Sovok "engineer" can't do basic math, of course. While adjusting for urban/rural makes a small difference it is not nearly enough.
It is primarily an urban disease, risk of it spreading is exponentially higher in urban areas compared to rural areas obviously , so even though Lvov has a urban to rural population ratio of 3:2, and Donetsk and Lugansk are both ratios of about 9:1…….the infection rate in Donbass was only 3/4 times larger than shithole Lvov, despite 9 times larger urban ratio.
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Although I wouldn't doubt that there are few doctors in the Carpathian mountain villages, you claimed that HIV is an urban phenomenon.
Let’s not forget that, objectively the hospitals in the Donbass, kiev and much of the south are far superior in facilities, serve a much higher proportion of people in concentrated areas…which simply means western ukraine is woefully underdiagnosed
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Those regions are in central not western Ukraine, and are lower than in Donetsk.
As if your argument wasn’t dumb and insidious enough with kiev city not listed, Odessa clearly always high……it gets worse with Khmelnitsky and Cherkassy very high on the list
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1. Sovok "engineer" doesn't know that 2015 comes before 2019.
“nearly 1% of pregnant women in Donbass had HIVâ€.
LOL- current rate in Ukraine ( at least officially) is over 1% of the population having HIV
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Compared even to places like Vynnytsia. It was a shithole compared to Kharkiv.
nothing special:
Compared to what? Venice or Oxford?
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It was rich from coal and steel so it had some more expensive buildings.
It was better than majority of cities of Ukraine and Russia, etc, which is the point of comparison (not Western Europe).
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"Successful" - with African level of HIV, and with massive crime rate, and lowest life expectancy in Ukraine. And a fancy soccer stadium.
It was an elegant Soviet city, which had continued to succeed in a post-Soviet era.
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Bandit city had many bandits. Do you know how many luxury cars one can find in American ghettos?
Most of the wealth ended up in Cyprus.
One of the main things people were complaining just before the war, was that too many luxury apartment complexes were being constructed and planned in Donetsk and that there were too many luxury restaurants and automobile salons.
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LOL, your link is to a publication from Donetsk oligarch Akhmetov's "Фонд «Ðффективное управление."
It was ranked highly in economic competitiveness, economic innovation, etc.
https://web.archive.org/web/20160512033731/http://feg.org.ua/uploadfiles/ckfinder/fil
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Thugs wearing expensive clothes while living in a place with low expectancy, high crime, high HIV.
Here read how street signs were all for Gucci, Hugo Boss. Lagerfeld
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Steel and coal can buy stuff like a soccer team.
They had one of the best football teams in Europe.
This was a football team which competes with teams from the most developed Western European cities.
In such ways, it is an indication of an unusually successful city for this region.
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It was a shithole compared to Kharkiv. […] Assault rate: […] Life expectancy 2012: […]
Sorry for going on criticizing your data, but there is an important point to make here. What these two maps show, I’m sure, are outcomes of greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse in Donbass than elsewehere in Ukraine. Bad enough, sure, but my point is that when putting a region against others, you will often have some confounding variable or other (here, greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse) that makes pretty much all other data from that region look bad. And even with that said, note that the differences in life expectancy are pretty uniform across the country — way below the Western European average.
Good point. All this stuff goes together, though. American ghettos have high crime, high rates of STDs, high rates of substance abuse. Overall picture is that of a shithole. Same for Donbas.
What these two maps show, I’m sure, are outcomes of greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse in Donbass than elsewehere in Ukraine. Bad enough, sure, but my point is that when putting a region against others, you will often have some confounding variable or other (here, greater levels of alcoholism and drug abuse) that makes pretty much all other data from that region look bad.
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There was a 3.5 year difference between Lviv oblast and Donetsk oblast.
And even with that said, note that the differences in life expectancy are pretty uniform across the country — way below the Western European average. �
There is some truth in that. It is more reason to quarantine and blockade the place from Ukraine. However, Luhansk is also a much smaller city than either Lviv or Donetsk. And behavior makes a difference in terms of how vast such a disease can spread. People in Lviv are less likely to be junkies and less likely to sleep around.Replies: @Swedish Family
Do you not see the implication of the HIV rate being staggeringly higher in Donetsk than in Lugansk, right next door? This suggests that HIV rates are highly localized phenomena, just like any epidemic
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People in Lviv are less likely to be junkies and less likely to sleep around.
This I don’t doubt, but again, it’s a religious peasant region, which makes it a poor point of comparison. I’m sure people in Des Moines sleep around less than those in New York City, but that’s comparing apples and pears.
Lviv is religious but it isn't "peasant," the city has a population of 800,000 people (4 times more than Des Moines). It has twice the population of Luhansk. Being "peasant" would not explain its 3 times lower rate of HIV than Luhansk.
This I don’t doubt, but again, it’s a religious peasant region, which makes it a poor point of comparison. I’m sure people in Des Moines sleep around less than those in New York City, but that’s comparing apples and pears.
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