Video Link

Even WWII didn’t cause anything larger than a minor blip in the march towards the inflection point that was passed during the 60s.

I’M SORRY! WE TRIED!!!

But as a certain someone said: “Their efforts were commendable…”

The reply guy “well akcually…” to both you and Karlin is basically: “Yes, and?” We all knew for years that the real demographic threat is not North Africa or the Middle East, but SS-Africa combined with a suicidal ideology in occupied and colonized Europe. “Islamo-Fascism” was always Zionist bait since Charles Krauthammer invented the term, also not exactly a hot take. And it never really took off in Evropa.

Islam has no power in Europe which is not given to them by Jews and upper middle class leftoid “baizuo”. Jews have power. A lot. The post WW 2 globalist world order has systemic power. And Islam has, intentionally and from the beginning, served the same purpose as the black civil rights movement in America. With the same questionable success. But distracting from (((them))) would not have worked with, let’s say, Japanese or Korean immigrants.

Furthermore, I have had one violent interaction with a gang of multiculti “tanned German” yahoos, among which one was a Turk, and about two to three with Poles. Which were much more dangerous, too. I have never had problems with Turks in general. On the contrary actually. And when in my tradcath phase I was sporting the classical Christian big beard style, I was greeted by them always with “salam aleikum!” Which I found quite nice. Better than atheist bug chasers anyway.

The real Nafri baby boom was in the 70s to early 80s. Prof. Gunnar Heinsohn pointed out years ago that the peak of the influx would ebb down around 2020-2025. And I finally came to realize that the “rapefugees” we are dealing with are basically Muslim Millennials. Draft dodgers and porn consuming, ungrateful soyboys who are pissed they have no access to Starbucks. And it was the Ziotard media alone which had fever fantasies of them as a trained insurgency cohort which would slit our throats at night and install the caliphate. Plus the projecting cuck fantasies of Ameritards who want to distract from their own TQ (Tyrone Question).

Street crime is of course really bad among Nafris, but on the other hand mostly contained to their own ranks and quarters. The only Islamists which ever creeped me out were Chechens. The war veteran from the Chechen war I met in Leningrad had some stories to tell! 10/10 based and red pilled guy, too. Would build Nazbol Gang with. Which shows again: IF you want to do it right, including Jihad, DO IT LIKE A WHITE MAN! On the other hand the “moderate Islamist” Chechen Salafist from Gelsenkirchen was pretty chill. – If you want to have a bro to discuss the Jews with…

For real I am not worried about Islam in Germany. At all. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-german-muslims-shocking-response-to-the-holocaust-1.9500759

Don’t worry about muh Islam. Worry about SS-Africa and the megalomania of the international libtard. They make a great candidate for the great filter.

The protests against Netanyahu are because he hasn’t extended the possibility of commercial surrogacy to LGBT as he had promised:

However, in (most? all??) Western Europe, they do not allow commercial surrogacy, let alone to single fathers or same-sex couples.

So, you can see how “Woke”, the politics is in Israel on topics like LGBT – i.e. that the “right-wing” Prime Minister claimed to support policies, which are not passed in Western Europe, and suffers mass protests when he delayed following his liberal words with actions.

THE SURROGACY LAW, amended in 2018, allows married heterosexual couples and single women to have children through surrogacy, but not single fathers or same-sex couples. That same year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he would support a bill to allow same-sex couples to have children through surrogacy, but so far has failed to do so.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/times-up-government-nearing-high-court-deadline-for-surrogacy-equality-660040

On the cannabis, Likud is also more liberal than the governments of some Western European countries like United Kingdom.

The first bill, submitted by MK Sharren Haskel (Likud), would decriminalize the possession of up to 50 grams of marijuana while fully legalizing the possession and personal consumption of up to 15 grams by individuals above the age of 21.

A separate bill sponsored by MK Ram Shefa (Blue and White) calls to regulate the cannabis market for self-consumption and fully legalize the personal consumption of cannabis by individuals above the age of 21, in accordance with the terms specified in the bill.

https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/News/PressReleases/Pages/press24620f.aspx

So right-wing, Likud is still quite accurately to its name – as a consolitation of nationalists and liberals. It’s not like young people in Israel are completely outside of Western trends in all the socially liberal ways, if they vote for Likud. That said, I do think young Israelis are culturally significantly different from young people living in the West, including having stronger nationalism, and heavier socialization.

Belarus btw is looks more like liberal EU cargo cult than nationalism

The most popular type of young peoples’ nationalism in Belarus is orientated more towards Poland and against Russia, and indeed they are partly funded by Poland and Visegrad, and they want to join the EU.

If Lukashenko wants to appease those type of polonophile nationalists, he should probably build informal alliance with Poland and Visegrad, as you can see nationalist groups are adding EU flags and hosted by Poland; Poland is developing that softpower projection into Belarus without apparently Lukashenko being able to prevent it.

Video Link

Offense is taken, not given, though I find your conclusions pretty much in total error, I find your faith a combination of touching and entertaining. You have not addressed any meaningful points that I’ve brought up, and seem wary of addressing any actual inflection points I’ve brought up in history or nature, so I’ll leave you to your religion though I’ll share a few links for your edification:

https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-past-is-another-country.html
Examples of human population replacement: no natural compensation for the eradication of an entire host population for an invasive population.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/dynamics-of-predation-13229468/
This is not “rare” or “unusual” but in fact the common pattern of predator-prey interaction

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.7185
When predators are removed, even more extreme boom-bust cycles happen

And I echo my earlier link on availability of energy to human civilization, though that is essentially self-evident: from human to animal ultimately to fossil, etc. As you should note in your own reading, all of this affects the carrying capacity. To indicate that we absolutely know all future developments that can continue to affect the human carrying capacity is silly, though you are certainly allowed to have faith in your particular brand of shamanism.

Yes, time on this planet as a species is very limited, and no matter what you do, even if you explode all your nuclear weapons simultaneously in a radiative fest extravaganza, that will just cause a temporary setback for life on parts of the biosphere. The space rock that wiped out dinos 65 million yr ago brought inmensely more destructive power than all nuclear weapons combined and yet the biosphere recovered quickly and then it sprouted out numerous new species in an orgy of copulations and natural selection.

Good point.

Mankind cannot destroy this planet or life. For all our narcissistic arrogance, we are in the end a puny species.

But mankind can destroy the environment needed for it to flourish. And may well be doing so with its ideology of infinite growth.

But who knows what other species, perhaps not yet existing, will initiate a line of development that culminates in a state of consciousness as high as man without our drawbacks?

If one believes – as I do – that all of existence is the expression of one energy and everything is indisdolubly interconnected, then death – of an individual or a species – and the rise of a new one is merely that energy rearranging itself. I exist as much in that squirrel as I do in my human skin.

But we have left the realm of biology and perhaps I am getting to wooly headed here 🙂

You seem to be trying to offend me or ellicit some sort of adversarial response, but you would need to be a lot stupider to do that.

The idea that “Nature� blindly has some sort of overall compensatory mechanism without even considering the math of it is basically a kind of Lysenkoistic scientific magic.

Here you came close. Yes, nature has blind compensatory mechanisms for populations whose math has been worked out, rather extensively and in depth. Just do a search for “population dynamics compensation” and everything will be illuminated.

It gonna be extremely difficult to reach a stable state at a human population size below the current size. Even WWII didn’t cause anything larger than a minor blip in the march towards the inflection point that was passed during the 60s. Perhaps WWIII, as it will be fought with nuclear weapons, will reset the biological process that started rolling ~500 thousand years ago, leading to a smaller asymptotic human population size, but I don’t think that is what you want, because the biosphere itself will be affected, reducing carrying capacity for a long time (in human timescales).

A steady state economy is another matter entirely. That can be achieved.

Yes, time on this planet as a species is very limited, and no matter what you do, even if you explode all your nuclear weapons simultaneously in a radiative fest extravaganza, that will just cause a temporary setback for life on parts of the biosphere. The space rock that wiped out dinos 65 million yr ago brought inmensely more destructive power than all nuclear weapons combined and yet the biosphere recovered quickly and then it sprouted out numerous new species in an orgy of copulations and natural selection.

When Western middle class is brainwashed into first tolerating a massive immigration, and then worked up to aggressively expelling or destroying the imported alien masses, …

Massive immigration happened because political and business bosses desired it, but the elimination of immigrants will happen DESPITE the wishes of those bosses.

Power dynamics are the main driver. This and elite clans wishing to perpetuate their dominant position.

Like in every other social mammal species.

Space for housing is a minor issue. The problem is agricultural land. How much food can be produced? About half the land that can be used for agriculture is already used for agriculture. The potential to expand food production is far from unlimited. People would have to eat more energy efficient food.

People will never be able to live of nutrition pills because they can’t contain enough energy. But powder food works.

Electricity production would obviously be a big issue. I don’t know how far you’d get by filling Sahara and Australia with solar cells but that’s probably a good plan.

Probably the Earth could support 1000 billion is everybody is content to take their nutrition in pill form always and live in a 5 by 8 cell with no windows.

Climate change is real, climate has always fluctuated. Anthropogenic global warming is a cult and the global movement to oppose global warming is a manipulative social psy op.

dying out suddenly

It is not natural if people are manipulated to kill each other. When the Wendat and the Mohawk killed each other under European patronage with the imported guns, it had nothing to do with their ecosystems carrying capacity and population dynamics and everything to do with the fur trade control by competing European commercial interests, empires competing for territory control and ongoing colonisation.

When Western middle class is brainwashed into first tolerating a massive immigration, and then worked up to aggressively expelling or destroying the imported alien masses, it will also have nothing to do with population dynamics and everything to do with the global elite deciding that it is time to cull the masses and control their numbers forever to avoid the many potential negative impacts of technological advances and the irreversible social and ecological change that it might induce.

I understand why they would want to keep their control on human development, some of their reasons are possibly not just self-serving, but we – humans- have substituted ourselves for nature a long time ago. It started in the Neolithic and will continue until the humanity dies out, but nature is not the main driver here.

Power dynamics are the main driver. This and elite clans wishing to perpetuate their dominant position.

I don’t know that “patriotic” is quite the right word for them, but my impression is that they don’t have a reputation as a nuisance minority (except in the minds of hardcore nationalists).

I have no idea of what “insurgency” passer by is thinking of. It sounds like something he just pulled out of his ass. The communist authorities undertook a massive Bulgarisation drive beginning in the mid-1980s, forcing Turks to adopt Bulgarian names and clamping down on Islamic worship. Not surprisingly, not all Turks took this sitting down and some attempted to fight back. Maybe this is the “insurgency” he is referring to, though no one in his right mind could accuse the Turks of having started it.

Intetesting, thanks.

Honestly, I’d prefer it if humanity reached a stable population somewhere significantly below what it is now.

One thing is obvious – population growth cannot continue indefinitely and it is clearly a healthy natural process that it is declining. But sometimes the obvious is hard to see.

A “steady state” economy would also obviously be in humanity’s interest to achieve, but we are nowhere near mature enough as a species to seriously contemplate this.

For all the Enlightenment talk of humanity taking charge of its destiny, we are as ever, animals driven by blind passion and insatiable greed.

But I am sure natural processes will take care of the situation – whether humanity survives is another question. Lovelock’s Gaia theory proposes the Earth is an organism – humans cannot destroy it, but they may destroy the environment they need to survive.

Which is fine – other species will arise.

Although an atheist since age 11, May stated that religion may help society deal with climate change. While referring to what he believed to be a rigid structure of fundamentalist religion, he stated that the co-operational aspects of non-fundamentalist religion may in fact help with climate change. When asked if religious leaders should be doing more to persuade people to combat climate change, he stated that it was absolutely necessary.

Ah, I see that you have your prophet who also wishes to combat climate change with literal religion.

This should not happen, lest Tropical Hyperborea be threatened.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/tropical-hyperborea-cometh/

Instead of the population tending toward a “stable point�, it may overshoot and undershoot in a dynamic process that never reaches stasis.

Or perhaps stable points are reached – but don’t last very long.

That happens to other types of populations, populations of animals with short life, with just a few cohorts, with separate generations (think of cicadas, extreme case with a 13 yr lapse between generations), and in other very special cases like the case cited by Daniel Chieh. The human stock on the other hand has a lot of population inertia which makes their population dynamics very smooth (and predictable).

A great Aussie mathematician died last year, his name was Robert M. May. I learned a lot from him. He clarified many of these issues with his research on discrete nonlinear systems. He single-handedly created a new field for which we are still trying to work out its implications in many areas of application.

Did you finish reading the abstract you linked?

Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.

And this is also incorrect for humans, which obviously have been able to alter the natural forces such as nutritional availability or viable habitat. Depending on technology, humans both gain and lose limits.

http://people.eku.edu/ritchisong/RITCHISO/envscinotes3.html

Your “certitude” is necessarily limited by actual concrete limits and forces, all which may be altered by energetic availability depending on technology and furthermore altered by competition within populations of a species, so its more accurate to say that you have “faith,” which is basically religious in composition.

All of this should be self-evident as an intelligent, cogent person. The idea that “Nature” blindly has some sort of overall compensatory mechanism without even considering the math of it is basically a kind of Lysenkoistic scientific magic.

BTW, it was possibly the first French movie which introduced Maghrebi immigrant criminals and hinted at problems with immigration.

I recall watching a French film made in the mid-70s about Parisian (I think) summer vacationers on the beaches of southern France. There is some misunderstanding with some Algerian immigrants and things escalate and the French band together and kill one of the Algerians and the film then goes on to portray the French as “racists” blah blah – that’s how I recall it anyway, but I could very easily have the details wrong here.

Do you have any idea of the film I’m talking about? I’d like to watch it again. If it helps to jog your memory, I remember one scene near the beginning, a couple or more of the main characters are in a cafe and a guy (a busker, I think) walks in off the street and asks to use the toilet. The proprietor tells him he has to buy something, but the guy says no, no, you have to let me, it’s the law. (I remember this scene because I thought at the time, yes, that sounds very much like the kind of law the French would pass.)

Thanks for your interesting and well informed reply, for trying to explain to me why you erroneously think I am religious because of my certitude in natural laws explaining lots of things that humans mis-interpret as ideologically-driven.

However, you fail becase you are just quoting a very special case of limit cycles, failing to note the vast majority of cases, including the human stock, where such limit cycles are not observed, but rather, a stable point is achieved and mantained for a very long time (one stable equilibrium, rather one limit cycle). See for instance this paper in Nature:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1857-0

Authors write in the Abstract: “However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods5,6,7,8 and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19.”

The term “compensation” has nothing to do with Lisenkoism. Do a search for “population dynamics compensation” and you will find a lot of sources. In short, compensation is the process by which populations suffer checks on growth because of their biological potential and environmental forces. Compensation kicks in when populations are too big. Related terms are “overcompensation” and “depensation”.

It is no interference, like I said, it is just a prediction of how things will work out under population dynamics. Fractions of populations dying out suddenly are part of Nature’s blind and non-teleological devices. Current immigration of brown and black people to Europe and the USA will lead, naturally, to conflict and internal warfare down the road, to the detriment of the colored newcomers.

And it is not drastic. It will be a minor thing compared to segregation governance, the policy that the liberal State will apply on the long-times natives.

Worth linking to here as well in regards to carrying capacity of Earth as per our kind host:

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/max-world-population-200-billion/

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/world-population/

So here’s a very simple series of land/food calculations:

* The average person needs around 2,000 calories per day, implying 730,500 calories every 365.25 days.

* About 11.6% of the world’s land surface of 15,749,300 square kilometers is arable land, translating into 3,891,730,777 acres.

* Corn yields 15,000,o00 calories per square acre.

Carrying capacity in a World of Corn would be 79,912,336,273 (80 billion people).

This order of magnitude is remarkably consistent across different methods. For instance, on this Reddit thread, similar calculations for other high yield crop varieties and high yield farming methods produced estimates of 206 billion and 247 billion, respectively.

Moreover, in the aforementioned meta-analysis of 94 estimates, a multivariate regression analysis on global carrying capacity estimates in which land/food was the limiting factor produced conservative and progressive estimates of 33 billion and 103 billion, respectively.

I feel tragically deprived that melanf has not yet engaged himself into this conversation, being that it involved attractive women.

No, this is simply inaccurate. Your understanding of population dynamics is inaccurate.

Predators follow the Lotka–Volterra equations of cyclic rise and fall, rather than some form of exact equilibrium point.

https://serc.carleton.edu/details/images/52117.html

You may be trying to describe a sigmoid growth curve which has exponential growth reaching a carrying capacity, but that’s not flat but rather an equilibrium with cycles as well, and the carrying capacity is due to specific limiting factors rather than some sort of mystic “compensation method” which I can only imagine as some version of Lysenkoism complete with vital forces and other magical rambles disguised as science.

One could certainly imagine humans with a different population point, for example, with Mr. Karlin’s artificial wombs being prolific.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-artificial-wombs/

People who object(or support) social changes are indicating them as a limiting factors, and finally even within the limiting factors, intraspecies competition allows certain populations to expand at the cost of others and of course this is observed in any number of species, and often is the cause of extinctions.

So yes, your belief is a kind of religion. Please review your priors, as the logic is so whacked that it almost can’t be engaged with.

Bulgarian muslims (turks) had an insurgency during the 80s and hundreds of thousands were deported to Turkey.

I’m told that today those who remain there (8% of the population? 10%?) are law-abiding, hard-working, mostly secular, patriotic chaps.

But yes, perhaps it did take a deportation to get rid of the potential trouble-makers, horrendous as that may sound.

But the purest example I have seen of souless, aestheticist French cinema of the 1980s, that seems more like glamour photography, is Luc Besson filming Isabelle Adjani.

I remember that movie, watched it once. But to be fair, the most marking French film of the 80ies is probably “Tchao pantin.”, a kind of nouveau noir movie with the French comic Coluche, who was the working class French favorite. I have never understood the humour of Coluche, you probably have to be born into it, but he played his role in this trashy movie rather well.

BTW, it was possibly the first French movie which introduced Maghrebi immigrant criminals and hinted at problems with immigration.

Video Link

Nothing glamorous about this movie, but it was profoundly French.

https://www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tTP1Tcwr8ityDNg9OIpSc5IzFcoSMwrycwDAGUFCFE&q=tchao+pantin&oq=tchao&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j46l2j0.8340j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung-ss&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

I think it attempted to depict early 80ies Paris, like Taxi Driver depicted the mid-70ies New York.

I guess it would be impossible to produce a similar movie today because it was not at all politically correct.

And yet the Likud Government is constantly sabotaging LGBT rights and fighting with the High Court

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/179963-180722-thousands-to-protest-strike-over-surrogacy-law-excluding-gay-men

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-despite-promise-to-top-court-israel-still-discriminates-on-gay-adoption-1.7339552

In Belarus btw is looks more like liberal EU cargo cult than nationalism. That is, i suspect that nationalists are not the majority of protesters.

Moslims are, pound for pound, the weakest religious group in the world. They are pathetic fighters and there is really no way they will ever conquer anything except for other pathetic moslims.

I blame Trump. He put pressure on MBS to liberalize, and now Saudi Arabia has gone full globohomo.

I feel like she was a bit of a symptom of the end of the cultural fertility in the French cinema during the 1970s-1980s – as their films become and more more like glossy fashion magazines, with beautiful models on the cover, selling expensive dresses and perfumes.

We were talking a few weeks ago about why films Kieslowski made in France in the 1990s seem kitsch compared to his 1980s films in Poland. One of the main reasons for the kitsch effect, in my opinion, is that he has to hire beautiful French actresses like Irene Jacob, instead of the normal Polish actresses he used before.

Irene Jacob is almost unnaturally beautiful, and makes parts of his films seem like glamorous fashion shoots, and some of the realism element in his Polish films, with normal looking Polish actresses, is lost.

But the purest example I have seen of souless, aestheticist French cinema of the 1980s, that seems more like glamour photography, is Luc Besson filming Isabelle Adjani.

Video Link
It was an example of how in the 1970s-1980s, some of the French cinema is losing the cultural fertility of the previous decades, and the actresses become more and more beautiful, as the film industry seemed to be undergoing a conversion into glossy advertising. Of the course, the French are the best in world at marketing designer clothes and glamour, and it’s almost too easy for them to fall back onto it.

look at the Mizrachi marketing style of the Likud party campaigns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvSSAuF9kMk.

Video Link

The verse of Likud’s campaign song in 2019, was “Yalla Putin, Yalla Trump”.

At 0:33 in the video. Likud tries to associate Netanyahu with the type of strong leaders that impresses “low IQ” voters in Israel.

israeli youth is more right wing

Although note that “right-wing” is not constant across countries. Right-wing in Israel has many “Woke” aspects. In Israel, right wing is itself more a multiracial coalition than the left wing, and the rightist ideologies support multiracialism (although not multireligion).

Likud decriminalized cannabis, and has an LGBT caucus. Likud politicians march at the front of LGBT gay pride rallies. The “anti-white coalition” (i.e. anti-Ashkenazi coalition) in Israel is the Likud party – and many of the famous Mizrachi celebrities are supporting it: look at the Mizrachi marketing style of the Likud party campaigns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvSSAuF9kMk.

Israel is also becoming less militarist with each generation, while in the older liberal Israel there was more militarism.

So what’s very right wing about the non-Haredi, non-Arab youth in Israel? In Israel it is clear that there is a very high level of nationalism, and that the nationalism may be expanding among the youth to even higher levels.

Such expanding nationalism among the youth does exist in some countries in addition to Israel, as there are other examples of increasingly nationalist youth: e.g. in Ukraine, Belarus (where it is orientated against the government), Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

In Ukraine or Georgia, the rise of nationalism among the youth is result of the nationalist education system of the 1990s-2000s. (In Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the rise of nationalism is associated with geopolitical conflicts.)

With Israel, there isn’t such a simple explanation as the education system. It can perhaps be related to trauma of the Second Intifada where weekly or daily bombings penetrated into Israeli cities, and then rocket attacks, and “knife intifada” of more recent years.

Maybe a little off topic, but you should not use the term “Middle Eastern” at all. Especially when describing Armenians, as it just means “like the Arabs” in the mind of most of the world. It is an antiquated British geopolitical term. West Asian is the appropriate term, since Chechens and Georgians are a part of West Asia and the Egyptians and Moroccans are not.

I think her mother is Spanish, not a Mestiza. Also Salam Hayek – Lebanese father, Spanish-Mexican mother. Lebanese tend to marry into the European upper classes in Latin America.

Being militant has an “optimum point” like everything else. Extreme militant and extreme aggression and violence are self-defeating in the end.

Israel is significantly less militant, less violent and aggressive, than the Arabs it faces – and for this very reason it has no problem defeating them.

When you are too aggressive, you can’t “shut it off”, and you create sociieties with harsh hierarchies and lots of infighting and squabbling. Moreover, extreme aggression interferes with the ability to make calm, rational choices and craft strategy. Extreme aggression betrays lack of self confidence and inner weakness in the end.

In the tryouts for the elite units in the Israeli Army, excessive aggression is deliberately weeded out, and the most important quality is the ability to work within a team, which requires a high level of agreeableness. A weaker candidate who works well within a team is preferred to a stronger candidate who is overly militant and aggressive.

There are videos of Islamists suicide charging American Marine positions and being calmly decimated by the American forces who probably barely broke a sweat and then went back to playing pool. No doubt such foolhardiness betrays greater militantism, but is obviously self defeating.

There are also videos of American soldiers calmly engaging and defeating much larger Islamist forces in infantry combat from groups who cultivated an image of extreme violence and ferocity (cutting off heads, dressing in black and wearing masks, kidnapping and terroruzibg the civilian popukation etc).

Aristotle long ago described courage as the mean between foolhardiness and cowardice. Societies that achieve the correct balance succeed. The rest go into the dustbin of history.

Show me the side that tries to project excessive aggression and cruelty and fearsomeness, and I will show you the losing side that feels insecure.

Bashibuzuk suffers from feelings of innate inferiority and loserdom and can’t help indulging in fantasies of being dominated by hyper-masculine Muslims and in his fervid imagination – Jews.

Beware of paying too much attention to people who are “innate losers” – they bring everyone down with them.

Fetishizing excessive force is always a sign of inner insecurity.

Good point.

But if the 60s was still on the “upward arc” and thus not any kind of “stable point”, the “downward arc” we are now experiencing may take the population even lower than the 60s.

Instead of the population tending toward a “stable point”, it may overshoot and undershoot in a dynamic process that never reaches stasis.

Or perhaps stable points are reached – but don’t last very long.

I am now in a vast, open, natural landscape where you can see for miles and there are almost no humans. It’s remarkable how being in such an environment makes the passions, obsessions, grievances, and ambitions of the everyday human world seem so petty.

I am convinced three fourths of the distress and mental illness so characteristic of the modern world – and so evident on this website – are caused by population pressure and lack of access to the natural world.

Even in London in the 18th century, one of the largest metropolises in the world, one could walk to the countryside in an hour or two.

The human population needs to shrink – and drastically. And it seems like nature agrees. If the planet is an organism, it’s obviously initiating some sort of immune mechanism.

And since there is zero correlation between population size and creativity and inventiveness (one could even perhaps establish an opposite correlation), shrinking population has no implication for progress. It might help it.

I usually appreciate your comments and do not find them cryptic at all. And Julia Ormond is certainly a beautiful lady.

🙂

I must apologize, my comments are often cryptic in nature. It was a reference to 1980s American Pop culture and a Hollywood Cult classic. The greatest ever film made in US about Chinese culture! 😂😂😂😂

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Trouble_in_Little_China

The concept of a liberal genocide appeals to my esthetics, it kinda feels appropriate. Progress driven people are notoriously good at it, so it might certainly work.

But if you need to interfere in population dynamics in such a drastic manner, then perhaps the changes in TFR that you describe are not very natural. They would be ideologically impacted and socially selected for. I think we should trust nature more.

🙂

Shakira is only half lebanese, her mother is a colombian mestizo.

I like math, if I am bad in it, I will try harder :)…in my defense, my timeframe (and AK’s) was shorter. By 2100 all kinds of things could happen. Linear projections are risky.

I like your analysis, but there are 2-3 assumptions I want to address:
– 2 million or so annual migrants from the Third World could change: it is a political decision and when water reaches people’s noses they tend to wake up and act. (Or not.)

– EU native TFR is based on a dysfunctional generation of loser liberals – people who were born just to create some garbage, talk nonsense, and then disappear into the abyss of nothingness that they so fear all their lives. There is another Europe of people with families and by definition the self-selection of those traits is passing on a biological desire for children – that suggests that the family oriented Europeans will grow as a proportion of population, thus higher future TFR.

– Populations always mix and assimilate: a certain % of the migrants will gradually become indistinguishable from the native Europeans. This is especially true about the more viable groups, e.g. Lebanese in France, many South Americans in Spain, etc…but also among many others.

The real issue are the 4 billion surplus Sub-saharan Africans, and tens of millions of Indian, Middle Eastern, and mestizo low-class people who are desperate to move to Europe (and US). If the elites continue bringing them in, the game is over, there are way too many of them and they can never be assimilated.

By the way, if the elite morons think that their progeny will avoid this fate and hide away, they are fools. In 2-3 generation they will live in the same society and their descendants will not escape the dysfunctions: economic collapse and cholo-like short fat people with flat heads and small brains – it will come for them too. But elites tend to be fools, look at history, so we might be doomed. I still think Eastern Europe can be preserved.

Why haven’t they taken power right across the muslim world?

Because they are opposed by other Muslims. As I wrote in one of my comments above, what will probably save the West is the disunity among the Faithful and the opposition of the world Jewry to the Islamic project. But if these two obstacles are removed, then the West is probably lost.

Isabelle Adjani has pers eyes passing from blue to green through gray. Her eyes are probably as changing as her soul was when she was young.

If a green eyed French actress of immigrant ancestry is needed, then Mylène Jampanoï does certainly qualify.

This is Islam. And no sophistry or wishful thinking will ever change that. If they unite and come to terms with the Jewish elite you will submit because there’s nothing else you will be able to do. You are already submitting to the fake and gay Wokism, how can you possibly stand against a real militant religion…

I think you are exaggerating this threat. Obviously all “muslims” aren’t that extreme. We really need statistics on this, not scary anecdotes about Mohammed Atta. Secondly, if they’re so determined that less militant people have no hope of withstanding them, then how is they’ve only come to power in a couple of muslim countries (and are wavering even there)? Why haven’t they taken power right across the muslim world?

The world needs fewer people. It would be good if world population can be about halved

If you manage to cut human population by half as you desire, you will return humans to the situation in the 60s of the past century, precisely when human population growth rate was maximum. So total human biomass will return to current levels quickly, and perhaps things will become substantially worse if impregnated females and their offspring consume more today than in the 60s. So you might really want to shrink human biomass to a size higher than half of today’s biomass, so as to reduce total biomas while also maintaining a state of deacceleration.

Neoconfucians also thought that businessmen and soldiers were unvirtuous by their nature of their existence: businessmen make their living by deception(knowledge gap between cost of production and resale)

It’s astonishing the kind of dumb ideas intelligent people had about economics in the past. As if the only (or even main) reason I’m willing to pay a merchant’s asking price is because I’m ‘deceived’ about the mark-up on the item. In reality, I’d often be willing to pay that asking price even if the mark-up were posted right next to the price. (Especially if it’s the best deal going.)

Needless to say, all economic thinkers of the distant past (at least I’ve never heard of any exceptions) were ignorant of the concept of ‘consumer surplus’ – the difference between the maximum you would have paid for something, and the price you actually had to pay. If the maximum I were willing to pay for, say, a given set of golf clubs was $2000 but I could get that set for $500, I would feel like I got it for a song even if the mark-up on it was 500%. It’s a great shame economists haven’t managed to popularize this (fairly simple) concept as much as they have supply and demand.

Although I am skeptical of many extravagant Yogananda’s claims, I think his work on Omar Khayyam should be given more attention…

http://libgen.rs/book/index.php?md5=9B60BAD8B4137A7CBB9B708739A97A58 (click on the picture > get & download)

Well, as the Islamic saying goes: “The return to [one’s] origin is preferable ” (“Inna rujuu lil asli fadhila“)

It’s not about approving or frowning upon. It’s just an empirical prediction.

Also, genocides can be smallish, not affecting any other long-term trends inherent to the liberal State (cf. your previous dialogue w/grandma).

Former Argentine President Carlos Saul Menem was laid to rest Monday at an Islamic cemetery in the province of Buenos Aires.

“He is going to rest in the Islamic cemetery alongside my brother, even though he adhered to the Catholic religion. But he is going to be with my brother,” said Menem’s daughter Zulemita on Sunday.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/former-argentine-president-buried-in-islamic-cemetery/2146150

‘I never change, I simply become more myself.’

I was absolutely enamored with her and Sophie Marceau when I was young. When I see their pictures today, I can only lament the passing of time…

(Have no idea why but what I wrote above made me want to drink a cup of wine and read the Rubaiyat.)

🙂

Green eyes are great though

Isabelle Adjani is an example of the benefits of North African immigration to France.

Stop thinking constantly on sex.

Confucius would be celibate if he could, if what we know of his marriage is true.

Sahakira is an example of the benefits of the Lebanese immigration to South America, just like Isabelle Adjani is an example of the benefits of North African immigration to France.

🙂

If we think of the more serious examples, then Carlos Slim and Carlos Menem come to mind.

Yes, Shakira is an example.

Ever heard of selective immigration?

If South American arabs were representative of arabs as a whole the arab world would be 90% christian. Almost all arabs who migrated to Latin America were christians. They were also mostly merchants, very few peasants who migrated. They are not representative, not by a long shot.

“It increasingly looks like political Islamism was one of many passing Arab political fads that failed, like pan-Arab nationalism before it, and probably some kind of liberal socialism so far as the next generation is concerned.”

I really doubt that. How reliable is the arabometer? The World Values Survey still shows very high religiosity in these countries as well as near universal rejection of homosexuality and sex before marriage.

However, there will be already too many of them, so I predict a correction via genocide.

Do you think that your grandma would approve of this ?

Also, aren’t genocidal tactics kind of a “cheat code” to your grand population dynamics strategy ?

I mean, we already have the coronavirus as a “cheat code”, maybe that’s “granularity ” enough and we should place our fate in nature’s hands…

🙂

When those more religious moslems born in Europe and the US grow up and live a life of penury and squalor (because they will face compensation limits that the long-time natives have already internalized) they will bring their TFR to equilibrium with the long-time natives. However, there will be already too many of them, so I predict a correction via genocide. The exciting genocidal times in turn will create a short fertility boost for long-times natives.

Remember that IQ is only part of a person’s economical success. In general a low IQ prevents people from becoming successful, but high IQ doesn’t mean they will succeed in life. There are other heritable characters, for example conscientiousness and agreeableness (to name two of the Big Five).

I would guess that Amerindians of equal IQ of Arabs will be generally less successful because of lower conscientiousness.

Conscientiousness is independent of IQ.

Under Erdogan’s rule the Anatolian smallvilles became real town and cities and a broader middle-class emerged in those new urban regions.

The majority of Turks in Germany are from those Anatolian backwater-regions. That’s why Erdogan is very popular in Germany.

That’s a worn out cliché, accusing the scientific person of being religious.

There is a scientific discipline called population dynamics. It predicts the global dynamics of the human population (and others) from its birth with great accuracy. Demographers at the UN make regular predictions based on some simple dynamical systems from population dynamics like the discrete logistic map.

Humans think too much of themselves. Galileo and Darwin put some of the hubris to rest for good but there is still a lot of hubris. The human population follows the laws of population dynamics as much as any other species. Humans are to deaccelerate in growth rate (since the 60s) for the next few centuries and the most advanced regions (the White and Asian subpopulations) have to deaccelerate faster because they are reaching compensation limits sooner than the other subpopulations.

Excellent. Thanks. I was not aware of his poetry. This guy is a seer.

You (Karlin) are right that in aggregate the 500 million people EU will not become non-white.

You guys have poor math skill (Karlin included), i’m sorry to say that.

I do not believe that Eastern Europe will be non-white. But i do believe that Western Europe will be majority non-european by the end of the century. What you are looking at is around 50 – 55 % non-european Western Europe with around 30 – 35 % muslims. But the remaining natives will be old, with median age above 50 (worse than today’s Japan) while the migrants will be young. All the big cities will minority dominated, some will be muslim majority cities too.

You see, you look at 500 million EU and you say: no way it could become majority non-european. That would need more than 500 million other people coming in!

It is not easy to make 500 million a minority, but it is easy to make 160 million people a minority. And this is quite probably what the number of europeans living in Western Europe by 2100 will be.

Western Europe, that i’m talking about, is around 406 million people. 13 % of it is already non-european. That means around 53 million non european pop. and around 353 million euro pop.

That euro population is declining just as the japanese population is declining – it is old and well below replacement rate. Not only that, but the total population of Western Europe will soon start declining too. Even the current levels of migration are not enough to stop that. Which btw means that european authorities may push for even more immigration in the future.

So what you are looking at at 2100 is around 360 million people in Western Europe, and around 200 million non-europeans. Maybe 55 % of the western european population.

You already have 53 million living in Western Europe, to get the rest will require less than 2 million migrants per anum for all Western Europe. Some of the migrant population will increase due to higher TFR and young age, so you need 1,5 – 1,2 million non-european migrants per year for 80 years for all of Western Europe to get to 200 million majority by 2100. Something that is happening right now.

Here are some interesting demographic estimates on that issue.

https://gefira.org/en/2018/01/18/the-incredibly-shrinking-italian-population-by-2080-italians-will-be-a-minority-in-their-own-country/

https://gefira.org/en/2018/03/26/do-germans-still-belong-to-germany-in-the-near-future/

https://gefira.org/en/2017/06/05/cerberus-2-0-predicts-the-disappearance-of-the-dutch-population/

https://gefira.org/en/2018/07/27/sweden-will-remain-sweden-but-in-name/

Houellebecq wrote what looks like it should be the new anthem of the West 20+ years ago:

Liberalism and individualism are in many ways a function of less inbreeding in western population. This isn’t how most of the non-west is, though. It is more inbred, thus more tribal, selfish and clannish.

In other words, good luck finding <90 % white crowd protesting Climate Change and trying to save the planet.

Israeli secular jews are the only rich secular population in the world at or above replacement rate. So that’s exceptional.

The fact that israeli youth is more right wing than old, mostly married people is exceptional too. I’m not aware of anything like this anwhere else in the world.

Bulgarian muslims (turks) had an insurgency during the 80s and hundreds of thousands were deported to Turkey.

They do not secularise in western countries. Second gen is often worse than the first.

And really, “secularism” in muslim countries is a whole other beast than what is understood in the West. For example in “secular Syria” or Mubarak’s Egypt it wasn’t allowed for muslims to convert to a non-muslim religion. Also when a muslim and non-muslim marry, the children must become muslims. Proselytism by non-muslim groups was not allowed. And you saw how “secular” Turkey moved towards government islamism and Neo-Osmanism.

Yep, this is interesting. Although it would be interesting to see the situation in other muslim countries. What is known, though, that in Europe and the US, muslims are both more religious and have higher TFR than the native population.

on account of accumulating evidence there of fertility convergence

There is no accumulating evidence of fertility convergence in Europe because many other european countries do not follow Denmark’s case, including other scandinavian countries too. Look at comprehensive data and not just data for one country.

View post on imgur.com

As for Uzbekistan, no source for this guy’s data. I need something more than empty talkings.

Meanwhile Wiki data shows that birth rate is increasing in Uzbekistan, and it increased even in 2020 too.

But i can tell you right now that he isn’t good at math. He claims that 3+ % in Uzbekistan is lower than in Russia, and yet the fact remains that TFR in Uzbekistan was nearly 2.8 in 2019 vs 1,5 for Russia. Do you know what that means? It means that there are far more childless women in Russia than in Uzbekistan. Which is why the lower 3 + % didn’t matter. This pattern gave you a TFR a 2.8 There was a decrease in the 3 + % which was compensated by a decrease in the number of childless women. In other words, Uzbekistan can continue doing that and having 2.8 TFR.

Thanks, I see there was more to Houellebecq in the past.

The noisy, whining, cholo-like, midwit migrants from the Third World sh..holes who prance around spouting secular and/or religious identity slogans is the most repulsive thing that West offers today. Their precise origin or their confused ideology is less important than the pathological envy enforced by stupidity. But the people who brought, cultivated and empowered them are worse. I don’t see the West overcoming this toxic combination.

That’s a good point.

It’s obviously crazy to think population can just keep increasing indefinitely, and what goes up must come down.

Also interesting to point out that secularization has in some sense led to the population explosion that is overburdening our world today.

The world needs fewer people. It would be good if world population can be about halved.

We need more wilderness and open land, and a better relationship to nature. Instead of “dominating” nature we should be refreshed and inspired by it.

People who lament population re-balancing are the ignorant “more, more” philosophy types that has made such a mess of the world.

He is possibly a heretic, we should prepare the soft cushions for pillow torture…

Victim of modern secularist propaganda regurgitates modern secularist propaganda.

Your perspective on population is religious, not scientific.

You are just not seeing the big picture.

I know many assume that lower fertility rates are to be blamed on secularization (mostly) and other ideological forces such as women participation in the work force, but lower fertility rates are natural (not ideological) after successful species spread and grow in size. It happens to sardines, locusts, soil worms, humans, red king crabs, bacteria in Petri dishes. All populations have in-built compensation mechanisms that reduce fertility rates after some time of expansion, and the young human species have just passed the point of maximum growth so it gonna start deaccelerating everywhere until it reaches a plateau.

Fertility rates exploded for humans thanks to secularization, after the Dark Ages when white peoples in Europe were asfixiated with the stupid North African religion. The release of the white peoples from the schackles of religion after the Dark Ages allowed for the biological potential of the species to be unleashed.

The Renaissance was indeed the birth of the secular white peoples: Galileo, Copernicus, Descartes, Chaucer, Milton, Kepler, Da Vinci, Francis Bacon, Shakespeare, the printing press, the Age of Discovery, humanism (“man is the measure of all things”), Paracelsus, Visalius, William Harvey, Erasmus. Church control of the medical profession decreased (Church orcs forbade dissection), paving the way for modern medicine.

If no other meat is available and there is a risk of starvation, then Muslims are allowed by Shariah to eat porc or any other non-Hallal food. Circumcision is not one of the Five Pillars of Islam, an adult convert to Islam does not necessarily have to undergo circumcision.

See the dropping of birthrates after the end of the Catholic regime in 1975 here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033179/fertility-rate-spain-1850-2020/

It was indeed seen as being rather unvirtuous and extravagant, but notably, Neoconfucians also thought that businessmen and soldiers were unvirtuous by their nature of their existence: businessmen make their living by deception(knowledge gap between cost of production and resale), and soldiers make their living through violence.

This did not prevent China from either having businessmen or militaries.

Even in governance, China was heavily Legalist despite often preaching Confucianism. The contradictions are part and parcel of its being.

I remember there were reports of no provisions being made for Muslims in US immigration detention facilities and them having to eat pork, and the Jewish blue-checks on Twitter were putting out tweets in solidarity and mentioning how bad it would be if Jews had to eat pork.

The biggest resistance to banning circumcision as well comes from the Jewish lobbies, there was huge pressure on little Iceland to not ban circumcision from the ADL who threatened to launch an anti-Iceland media blitz if Iceland didn’t relent and ditch the circumcision ban bill. Full letter to the Icelandic Parliament is attached below with a highly intriguing passage highlighted on the second page.

“Renaissance, with the time when secularization could produce modern medicine, science and technology,”

Please, the Renaissance was not a period of secularization. Christianity was completely pervasive and ubiquitous. Modern medicine does not appear in the Renaissance. Modern science starts later, during the Baroque period. Technology? What do you mean? There have always been technology but, if you refer to the Industrial Revolution, it happened much later.

In addition to that, the fact that some intellectuals or even some elites secularized is not relevant because these are minorities. The important thing is the secularization of the masses. This started in the 60s.

In my country (Spain), birthrates were 18 per 1000 people in 1975 when the National-Catholic regime ended. In 1993 (18 years later), after a relentless anti-natalist secularization campaign, it was about 9. It was not biology. It was culture.

I don’t mean that secularization was the only factor: wealth and the reduction of mortality rate are important factors in the long term. But the last decades, the plummeting of birthrates is due to secularization (including “the pozz”, anti-natalist propaganda, etc.)