Actually there is a real problem with skilled emigration from Russia no matter how much spin one puts on it.
Latest high profile case is the emigration from Russia of former rising star of russian politics Robert Schlegel, an ethnic German, in the past youngest State Duma MP, number 2 of the Nashi youth mouvement and high profile member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe delegation from Russia in ’14 at the height of the Crimea reunification and upcoming war in Ukraine., Robert Schlegel got much notice thanks to his very articulate presentation of Russia’s case.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/12/04/defected-pro-kremlin-lawmaker-resettles-in-germany-a68461

Understanding is that the emigration of so many young talents from Russia is due to huge disappointment people experience in the way the country works (phenomenal corruption, nepotism, general stagnation…) and the perceived lack of prospects for the country.
The emigration of people of such caliber should serve as an alarm and it can’t be just wished away.

Vermont is close to French Canada, which has a reputation..

Rest of Canada is fake nice.

I was once at a country store in Waterbury, Vermont, and struck up a conversation with a Russian family in the processing of buying something. The cashier behind the counter, overhearing us, said, “Oh, you’re Russian?! I’m really sorry, I would’ve been much nicer, but I thought you were Canadian.”

Of for that matter, people whose mode of communication is yelling and ру��кий мат. Canadians are nice to each other, and it’s a good thing that you really get used to.

Probably not all Canadians are so cute. My wife two days ago went to visit a family with 4 children which returned from Canada (this family lived in Canada for several years as the head of the family has a job in Canada). This family doesn’t want to go back to Canada because (in their experience) Canadians are terrible people. For this they are now planning how to arrange so that the family lived in St. Petersburg and the head of the family part of the year worked in Canada.

We laugh, but this is one of the Varlamov themes about Canada.

Video Link

overestimates the actual odds but insurance companies may like it that way because they can justify charging you more

Lol that would be a clever motivation – more profitable for insurance companies than an alternative motivation of just wanting to save costs by not needing to buy scientific calculators for their office.

Overestimation is too small to notice if we need to be insured against being murdered in London (murder rate 1.52 per 100,000).
e.g. after 80 years
0.1216% chance of being murdered
vs
0.1215% chance of being murdered

But maybe if we live somewhere like Tijuana (murder rate 138 per 100,000), we should remember to check our life insurance agent has a calculator in the office.
E.g. after 80 years
11.04% chance of being murdered
vs
10.45% chance of being murdered

Well maybe blacks arent as violent as people think. Almost 1/4 of NYC is “black”. Another 1/4 is Hispanic – mainly from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic (manyof them “black”). So if these grouos are zo violemt one would surely expect a higher homicide rate than Naples or Glasgow. But knowing I have some Scottish in me – I know Scottish tempers. So it seems police tactics play a big part in NY.
Also El Paso has a lot of the Mexicans everyone loves to hate… Which we know Mexico has horrific violent wars going on.

Thank you once again.

If murder rate (odds of being killed in one year) is p=5/100,000 then the probability P(80 years) (the odd of being killed in your lifetime of n=80 years) is calculated using Bernoulli formula:

P(n=80 years)=np(1-p)^(n-1) = 0.00398423

So your lifetime odds of being murdered are 4 in 1000. If you have say 25 years to live your odds of bing killed in remaining lifetime is 0.0012485 (12 in 10,000).

Now, the second question: What are the odds that one of your N=200 acquaintances will be murdered in the next 25 years?

You use the same Bernoulli formula with p=0.0012485.

P(1 friend out 200 killed in 25 years) =Np(1-p)^(N-1)=200*0.0012485*(1-0.0012485)^199=0.194738

The probability that 2 out of your 200 friends are killed in next 25 years

P(2 friends out 200 killed in 25 years) =((N-1)N/2)p^2(1-p)^(N-2)=200*0.0012485^2*(1-0.0012485)^198= 0.0242217

So the probability that at least one of your acquaintances is murdered is higher. You first calculate using Bernoulli formula the probability of nobody getting killed and then subtract it form 1:

P(at least 1 out of 200 friend killed)=1-(1-p)^N = 1 – (1-0.0012485)^200= 0.221087

In the actuarial statistics when p is small like for the odds of being murdered they simplify the calculations of lifetime odds by ignoring the (1-p)^n term, so basically they just take p and multiply by number of years n. Lifetime odds = Years*MurderRate. This overestimates the actual odds but insurance companies may like it that way because they can justify charging you more.

This still seems absurdly high.

Lol it should be ok. (That earlier absurdity was because I multiplied years like a solid bloc – and I might not have even been drunk and stoned at the time.)

You know 200 people in a space (with a replenishing 100,000 people to keep it simple) where there is murder rate of 5 per 100,000
p=0.01 someone you know will be murdered each year
(0.99)^80 = 0.447523
1 -0.447523
———-
p = 0.552477 someone you know will have been murdered after 80 years.

Most people who are killed, are killed either because they are in the criminal world, or killeed by spouses or close ones. Only a fraction are killed randomly

Sure, it’s unevenly distributed in real life, so will depend on kind of people you know: Tupac’s kind of friends – at least this is the impression from the songs -, will be far more likely to be murdered than Ivanka Trump’s.

So if yo are a normal person who isn’t involved in gangs or the drug business, and who doesn’t have a lethal spouse , your chance of getting murdered in the USA is close to zero.

Personally I knew a man who was murdered in a fight. In this case, he was middle class and intellectual – but he was 20 or 21 year old when it happened. Also a friend from school has died falling at 3am – but it was again it was a 21 year old man when he died. Men at that age – probably one of the most high risk groups for dying like this (fights, falls, car catastrophes) in any country.

I have to admit that he got me (& apparently others too). It’s funny now! 🙂

The neighborhood depicted doesn’t look all that spooky and looks a lot like the neighborhood that I grew up in Minneapolis. Today, the same neighborhood is a hodge podge of yuppified remodeled houses and other parts more run down, allsorts of “new immigrants” including Somalis. ðŸ™�

But hey, at least Western Europeans don’t have so many thugs in their prisons.

They are working hard to correct that. By accepting “refugees� Europeans greatly increased the number of thugs in their midst. The only remaining thing is to put at least some of them in prison. Maybe they will have balls to do that.

You have a 75% probability of heads, because of mutual exclusion.

On the other hand, with the murder rate at 5 per 100,000, and your 200 friends, and 80 years – there is no mutual exclusion for the friends (we should see each as independent) so we should multiply.

However, if we treat each year as a different instance as above, then we should use exponent for the years maybe? (I was viewing it just as a simple bloc).

p =0.55247678623
So it should be 55% probability that one of your friends will be murdered at the rate of 5 murders per hundred thousand, if you know 200 people.

Ok. This still seems absurdly high. Half the people I know have not known someone who was murdered. However when I thought about the guy for my school who was shot because he got involved in drugs, I realized an obvious reason for why 55% of people will not actually know someone who got murdered.

Murders are not only rare, but also they are generally not random. Most people who are killed, are killed either because they are in the criminal world, or killed by spouses or close ones. Only a fraction are killed randomly by strangers that they have no dealings with.

So if the overall homicide rate for white people is 3/100,000, for those not involved in, say, the drug business or crime, and not killed by family members the rate is probably no higher than 1/100,000.

So if yo are a normal person who isn’t involved in gangs or the drug business, and who doesn’t have a lethal spouse , your chance of getting murdered in the USA is close to zero.

On the other hand, robberies are pretty much always done to random people (otherwise the robber would be easily identified). The 3/100,000 European-Americans who get killed or the 1/100,000 Western Europeans who get killed aren’t just anybody. But the 420/100,000 people in London who get robbed vs. the 198/100,000 in New York who get robbed really could be any of us.

So while the odds of being randomly murdered or having a friend randomly murdered are close to zero in both the USA in Europe (so close to zero that a doubled risk in the USA is functionally meaningless), the odds of getting robbed (someone pulling a knife on you and taking your wallet, someone beating you and taking your wallet, etc.) are much higher in several Western European countries than in the USA.

But hey, at least Western Europeans don’t have so many thugs in their prisons.

You guys realize he was kidding and being sarcastic/mocking Toronto Russian?

you have a 50% chance of getting heads when you flip a coin. This does not mean that if you flip a coin twice your chances of getting heads one of those times is 100%. It is not cumulative – each time it is the same 50% chance.

You have a 75% probability of heads, because of mutual exclusion.

On the other hand, with the murder rate at 5 per 100,000, and your 200 friends, and 80 years – there is no mutual exclusion for the friends (we should see each as independent) so we should multiply.

However, if we treat each year as a different instance as above, then we should use exponent for the years maybe? (I was viewing it just as a simple bloc).

p =0.55247678623
So it should be 55% probability that one of your friends will be murdered at the rate of 5 murders per hundred thousand, if you know 200 people.

you can flip it 10 times and never get heads. Same thing for 5/100,000 chance of being murdered in a year. It does not mean that, if you lived for 20,000 years, you would be guaranteed to be murdered.

Your individual probability of being murdered each year in that example would be
1 – (0.99,995) ^20,000
1 – 0.36787024399385
p = 0.632129756 (for being murdered)

So you will probably be murdered if you live that many years.

–

On the other hand, if the murder rate is at 3/100,000, then 1- 0.99997^20,0000
You have a 54.88% chance of survival.

So if our lifespan was that long, European vs. American murders rates are the difference between probably dying and probably surviving.

It’really all in the eye of the beholder. Here’s a winter street scene in Minneapolis from the same sort of neighborhood that Boris N so dutifully laments. In the right hands (and through the right eyes) it can be transformed into a cozy winter cityscape (this painting sold for $1,700 dollars a number of years back, it’s worth a lot more today):

“Harriet Avenue” Olexa Bulavitsky

y who has been murdered. You are off by a decibel. It would be an 8% chance

It would be 80%, after 80 years, at the rate of 5 murders per hundred thousand, if you know 200 people and the victims were evenly distributed in the population, as was the sample of people you knew (according to attributes relevant for these purposes).

So, if you knew 200 white people, it would be 48% chance (if murders were evenly distributed and so was your sample) after 80 years that one would be murdered.

That’s not how probability works.

For example you have a 50% chance of getting heads when you flip a coin. This does not mean that if you flip a coin twice your chances of getting heads one of those times is 100%. It is not cumulative – each time it is the same 50% chance. You could get heads the first time you flip the coin. Or you can flip it 10 times and never get heads. Same thing for 5/100,000 chance of being murdered in a year. It does not mean that, if you lived for 20,000 years, you would be guaranteed to be murdered. Each year would be the same 5/100,000 chance.

Casinos would love to have you as a customer!

Half of American white people do not know someone (out of 200 closest people) who was murdered LOL.

I know (acquaintance, not friend) someone who was murdered (or killed during a fight).

I heard of someone from my high school who developed a drug problem, got involved in some shady busisness, and was shot to death. I recognize the name, have a very vague idea of the face. Not one of 200 people I would claim to know.

My colleague, after visiting Madrid, said to never go there because it is dangerous. He was beaten up by a gang of teenagers who took his wallet and camera. He had never

Were they in Lavapiés, with illegal immigrants? Or perhaps near some dangerous Colombian bar or something?

I don’t know, I didn’t ask because I don’t know Madrid. Guy speaks Spanish and thought the people who assaulted him spoke Romanian. He goes to New York (Manhattan) and Boston a lot and thinks Madrid is more dangerous.

I always thought that you hated everything and your posts do not disappoint. Nonetheless, I must express my admiration of the sheer extent and documentation by which you express your disgust for everything in existence. It is no mere griping, which is common enough, but genuine effort that you put in to explore, record, and explain how in the end that everything is fact made up of only the ridiculous, ugly and the pointless in equal measures.

I can post a bunch of similar or even more appalling pics from Nashville, TN (except for the piles of snow – in TN half-an-inch of snow is a catastrophe, local drivers can’t handle it, they are bad enough w/o any snow). I could have had the same kind of pics from many cities in Canada (Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Vancouver), if I were interested in taking those pics. Does this mean that the life in the US or Canada is “sheer horror and desperation�? Of course not.

People who did not achieve anything to boast about after emigration do need to convince themselves that they ran from “horror and desperation�. Otherwise, they’d have to acknowledge that they are losers, who brought their nature with them to a new country. Virtually nobody is prepared to acknowledge an inconvenient truth.

I can’t agree more with you.

Just look at this mess right in the center of Moscow. How many years passed, but Sobyanin still can’t make things straight!

The well-known Sobyanin’s pavement made by semi-literate unqualified Tajiks. Everybody knows how corrupt all this pavement scheme is!

Just piles and piles of dirty snow nobody is going to clear! Right in the center!

Slippery!

In a normal country this car would be crystal clear. But not in Putin’s Russia.

These poor children have to walk through this hell every day on the way to school, all their miserable childhood. I hope when they grow up, they immigrate to Canada.

Some more pictures from the backyard of Russia, REAL Russia they’ll never show you on Kremlin’s TV. You can just feel the sheer horror and desperation of life in Putin’s Russia.

Have you lived in San Francisco? How was it to live there?

My impression is that it is one of the most charming and beautiful cities in America.

But it is also probably the only city I have walked around, where in 100 metres you can transition from an extremely bourgeois street, to one full of homeless one-arm people.

y who has been murdered. You are off by a decibel. It would be an 8% chance

It would be 80%, after 80 years, at the rate of 5 murders per hundred thousand, if you know 200 people and the victims were evenly distributed in the population, as was the sample of people you knew (according to attributes relevant for these purposes).

The reason it is not like this in real life, because victims are not evenly distributed – and neither is the sample of 200 people you know.

Similarly, your chance of being murdered after 80 years is 0,4% at 5 murders per hundred thousand. (But that is if homicide victims would be random, including in relation to their age and stage of life)

homicide rate among white people in the USA is about 3/100,000,

So, if you knew 200 white people, it would be 48% chance (if murders were evenly distributed and so was your sample) after 80 years that one would be murdered.

I don’t know a single person who has been murdered (of course, I am not black). Nor do any of my friends or relatives. Thinking of anyone

I know (acquaintance, not friend) someone who was murdered (or killed during a fight).

But I also must have known far more than 200 people so far (I think it is more like 1000+). I know people who were in my school, who have died already in ways which would seem unlikely.

My colleague, after visiting Madrid, said to never go there because it is dangerous. He was beaten up by a gang of teenagers who took his wallet and camera. He had never

Were they in Lavapiés, with illegal immigrants? Or perhaps near some dangerous Colombian bar or something?

I don’t think police in any country would be interested that your phone is stolen – one hour of police investigation, could probably pay for several new phones.

Glasgow did, stabbing someone because they support Rangers or Celtic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nil_by_Mouth_(charity)

Also a lot of gang violence fueled by sectarian rivalry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Boys

Not Glasgow.

Rate of robbery in London is two times higher

I haven’t time right now to investigate, but it will surely not be the case in your specific definition (where you say it is with violence), as violent crime is more than 2 times higher in New York than in London.

It is violence or the the threat of violence. So if I show you a knife and demand your wallet, or if I stab you and take it – this is robbery.

If I steal a purse from a table and run off, this is theft, not robbery.

It is not my definition, it is how it is defined by both American and British legal systems.

New York has a violent crime rate of 585.8 per 100,000 for 2016 (according to Wikipedia). Los Angeles has violent crime rate of 927.7 per 100,000 for 2016. London has a violent crime rate of 270 per 100,000

This is a less specific and more vague definition than “robbery.”

These are real people killed, however, and differences of hundreds of such deaths every year adds to quite a lot (like the death numbers from a small war).

Yes, a difference close to zero.

E.g. If you know about 200 people in a city. Then murder rate of 5 per 100,000 – if randomly distributed -, can imply 80% chance someone you know will be murdered if you live to 80.

LOL, 80% of Americans do not know someone personally who has been murdered. You are off by a decibel. It would be an 8% chance, over a lifetime, of knowing someone among the 200 people you know who has been murdered.

Most people do not know 200 people (I would not classify, say, seeing someone on an elevator every day, or a classmate one never sees outside class, as “knowing” someone). And kids do not know 200 people. For purposes of mourning and being affected emotionally by a murder it is probably 50 at most (siblings, parents, grandparents, aunts/uncles, 1st cousins, real friends). This means a 2% chance over 80 years (of course, it would be over 70 years as little kids don’t know 50 people so you should start at age 10).

Of course, homicide rate among white people in the USA is about 3/100,000, and 20/100,000 among blacks. Black people are likely to know someone who has been murdered (40% chance over a lifetime if they know 200 people and live to 80).

I don’t know a single person who has been murdered (of course, I am not black). Nor do any of my friends or relatives. Thinking of anyone I ever knew over my life – I once worked with a nurse (Latina) a few years ago when her friend (also Latina) was killed by a boyfriend. A friend’s daughter had a black friend in high school who was bused in from a ghetto in another town, who was killed by a black guy in her apartment building (the friend, a Russian, told her understandably upset daughter that that’s what happens to black people).

But I know a person who was hit by lightning (and survived).

I do know several people who have been robbed, however, both in the USA and Europe. My colleague, after visiting Madrid, said to never go there because it is dangerous. He was beaten up by a gang of teenagers who took his wallet and camera. He had never been robbed in the USA despite living here, but 2 weeks in Spain and he was robbed. Spain has a higher rate of robbery than the USA. It has a lower murder rate but as I have explained to you murder is extremely rare in both countries.

Crime stats are unreliable, murders are the gold standard as they have to be recorded and a dead body can’t be ignored.

Glasgow and Belfast suffered from sectarian violence known as ‘The Troubles’, until recently. So not really fair comparisons.

I have had my wallet stolen once, by some blacks on the NY subway.

San Francisco has a real city atmosphere in the centre (e.g. near Union Square), and many beautiful streets and historic buildings, while San Diego – not really.

Although, I think I might also prefer to live in San Diego, because of the convenience for travelling across the border to Mexico (as well as the fact it is not drowning in homeless people).

but cold nasty windy weather

It was just perfect sunny weather when I visited (in early summer).

Rate of robbery in London is two times higher

I haven’t time right now to investigate, but it will surely not be the case in your specific definition (where you say it is with violence), as violent crime is more than 2 times higher in New York than in London.

New York has a violent crime rate of 585.8 per 100,000 for 2016 (according to Wikipedia). Los Angeles has violent crime rate of 927.7 per 100,000 for 2016. London has a violent crime rate of 270 per 100,000

some kind of violent jungle, so this is probability of getting killed. Well yes, and the difference is meaningless. Close to zero in both cases.

These are real people killed, however, and differences of hundreds of such deaths every year adds to quite a lot (like the death numbers from a small war).

Moreover, murder also does not just affect the victim, but their family, people they know, etc.

E.g. If you know about 200 people in a city. Then murder rate of 5 per 100,000 – if randomly distributed -, can imply 80% chance someone you know will be murdered if you live to 80.

Whereas at the low Spanish murder rate of 0.6, it is only 9,6% chance.

752 acid attacks in London last year:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/london-is-acid-attack-hotspot-of-western-world-with-victims-as-young-as-10-a4222921.html

So it is rare, but the number is rising every year.

‘San Francisco is one of the most charming cities in the world; but they need to prepare tourists that it is where America settles a lot of its homeless, drug addicts, disabled beggars and mentally ill people.’

I grew up across the Bay from it, my grandmother was born there in 1901, etc.

You need to understand the population of the city has been virtually completely replaced over the last fifty years. You might as well compare Kaliningrad to Königsberg.

It is not talking about risk possibilities, but actualized killings, with dead bodies, sad families, etc.

You were talking about homicide rates and a place being some kind of violent jungle, so this is probability of getting killed. Well yes, and the difference is meaningless. Close to zero in both cases.

About 114 pedestrians were killed by traffic in New York compared to 73 in London. In your world should people be scared to walk around in New York? In the real world no – it’s freak occurrence in both places. As is homicide.

295 people were killed in New York last year, while 128 people were killed in London with a larger population.

So a difference of 167 people in a city of 8900000.

Robbery is being differently defined in different countries.

In English (still used in London) it is defined specifically as taking something from someone using force or the threat of force.

From wiki:

Recording of robbery offences in England and Wales are sub-divided into Business Robbery (robbery of a business, e.g. a bank robbery) and Personal Robbery (taking an individuals personal belongings with force/threat).[57] Annually business robbery offences in London account for on average 10% of total robbery offences.

Rate of robbery in London is two times higher than in New York. And unlike murder, which is very rare in both cities, robbery is common enough that people are at reasonable risk of falling victim to it. It is 420/100,000 in London vs. 198/100,000 in New York.

It’s also possible to compare violent crime rates (although there could be a difference in definition of violent crime between countries).

This is much murkier than specific crimes such as “robbery” or “homicide.” Robbery is relatively common but twice as high in London. Homicide is extremely rare but twice as high in New York. There are 167 more people killed in New York than in London. But about 20,000 more people were robbed in London than in New York (that is, forced to give up something at knifepoint, beaten up and had something taken, had acid thrown in their face and had something taken, etc.). This is a real risk that can actually happen to someone, at a noticeably higher rate in London than in New York.

It’s a price Londoners pay for living in a country that doesn’t believe in incarcerating criminals. New York is about to follow London’s lead with its new bail reforms, so it will catch up in a few years.

San Francisco is one of the most charming cities in the world

Even before the recent homeless epidemic, I was never impressed by it. Nice Victorian architecture and hills (Pittsburgh has both) plus ocean, but cold nasty windy weather and unpleasant people.

San Diego is the nicest large city in California. Santa Barbara is nicest overall.

I got relatively immune to beggars, psychos, and homeless in the streets in four years in Philadelphia. But seeing men kissing each other in SF streets almost made me puke.

San Francisco is one of the most charming cities in the world; but they need to prepare tourists that it is where America settles a lot of its homeless, drug addicts, disabled beggars and mentally ill people.

I had a little culture shock walking such streets.

1/100,000 and 2/100,000 is meaningless. It is a difference of .00001. At that low number “doublingâ€� is meaningless…. warnings about eating sausage doubling the rate of some cancer (

It is not talking about risk possibilities, but actualized killings, with dead bodies, sad families, etc.

295 people were killed in New York last year, while 128 people were killed in London with a larger population.

You can say that it is low in both cases – but that depends on your point of comparison. New York is low, compared to other American cities, or 1980s New York. But compared to Europe, New York is high, and 295 is more than the total number of murders in some countries.

For example, in Netherlands, 76 people were killed in 2017. ( Netherlands has 17.18 million people, compared to New York’s population of 8.623 million)

OTOH robbery is a lot more common, and here many Western European nations are indeed much more dangerous

Robbery is being differently defined in different countries. Moreover, reporting rate will be lower (as it usually is not such a serious crime).

How dangerous these robberies are, will also be partly tracked by the murder rate.

In countries with high murder rates, we can infer the typical robberies will be more dangerous, than in countries with low murder rates.

It’s also possible to compare violent crime rates (although there could be a difference in definition of violent crime between countries).

but you are much more likely to have someone pull out a knife and take your wallet, or throw acid in your face and take your wallet, or hit you on the head and take your wallet

New York has a violent crime rate of 585.8 per 100,000 for 2016 (according to Wikipedia). Los Angeles has violent crime rate of 927.7 per 100,000 for 2016.

London seems to have violent crime rate of 270 per 100,000.

There could be difference in definitions – but from a “brief look” at the violent crime rates, London definitely seems to be a lot lower.

‘Lol I would place my bet this is more likely in an American street.’

Obviously, it depends on which ‘American street.’ San Francisco is a bit of an outlier. Any resemblance between it and any place else is purely coincidental.

‘… So you may be about equally unlikely to get killed in New York as in London, but you are much more likely to have someone pull out a knife and take your wallet, or throw acid in your face and take your wallet, or hit you on the head and take your wallet, in London or Paris or Madrid than you are in New York (incidentally, a colleague of mine was jumped and had his wallet taken by some teenagers in Madrid last year. This had never happened to him in the USA).’

Well, New York is fixing that. Stay tuned.

So you can find a few small cities of 250,000 in America,which have a lower murder rate, than the “murder capital of Europe�.

They are next to each other (Scottsdale, Chandler and Gilbert Arizona) and although each only has 250,000 people together have 750,000 people, which is more than Glasgow.

You wrote: “The “most dangerousâ€� city in Western Europe, is safer than the most safe city in America”

This was clearly wrong.

Functionally it is a meaningless difference… There are a bunch of mostly-white US states with a homicide rate of 2 or lower:

It’s not meaningless either in the real world (it means twice as many murders), or for the perception of Western European people.

Of course the difference between a murder rate of 1/100,000 and 2/100,000 is meaningless. It is a difference of .00001. At that low number “doubling” is meaningless.

It means rather than all things being equal, instead of having a .001% chance of being murdered it is .002%.

It is silly hysteria, akin to warnings about eating sausage doubling the rate of some cancer (which really means, increasing risk of it from 0.001% to .002% or something similar).

OTOH robbery is a lot more common, and here many Western European nations are indeed much more dangerous than European America.

What’s very common in a couple of Western European countries, or at least Spain, is people take your phone or your wallet when you don’t see them. This is not a violent kind of robbery.

Did you even read my post before replying?

I already explained to you that theft (what you describe) is not robbery.

https://www.lawyers.com/legal-info/criminal/types-of-crimes/what-s-the-difference-between-theft-and-robbery.html

The crimes of theft (sometimes known as “larceny�) and robbery both involve taking someone else’s money or property without permission. The main difference between the offenses is that robbery involves the use of force or intimidation. Because robbery involves force, it is usually considered a more serious crime than theft.

Also again:

Much of Western Europe has more robberies than America:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/robery/

Belgium, Spain, Portugal, UK and France.

So robbery rate in London was 420/100,000 in 2010 (the last year wiki gives). In New York it was 198/100,000. Less than half.

So you may be about equally unlikely to get killed in New York as in London, but you are much more likely to have someone pull out a knife and take your wallet, or throw acid in your face and take your wallet, or hit you on the head and take your wallet, in London or Paris or Madrid than you are in New York (incidentally, a colleague of mine was jumped and had his wallet taken by some teenagers in Madrid last year. This had never happened to him in the USA).

Well, I calculated for myself just now, and Israel seem to have an extremely low emigration rate relative to its population.

Net negative emigration from Israel in 2017, was 0.06%, by my calculation. For comparison, emigration of British citizens from UK was 0.36% in 2015 – I calculated with the same methodology for 2015 data.

So Israel’s net negative emigration rate is around 6 times lower than UK’s.

In relation to Russia – more Russian citizens are immigrating to Israel this year, than total number of Israelis who are emigrating from Israel to all countries.

Russian immigration to Israel will exceed 15,000 a year this year. While Israel’s total net negative emigration was 5,800 people (in 2017, the latest year reported).

when police are more interested in thoughtcriminals on Twitter than actual criminals on the streets

Censorship of internet is unpleasant, but I doubt this is resulting in lack of attention to street crime (especially as in UK, streets are very safe in general – the English state is effective in creating all kinds of order).

Not large, but it’s a class of crime that pretty much doesn’t exist in the US, period.

Lol I would place my bet this is more likely in an American street.

Video Link

Well, it;’s not as if Russia is Israel or some other shit hole.

Forty percent of Israeli Jews say they would emigrate if only they could.

I suppose Russia’s a real country; not some ideological invention. Russians live in Russia.

3 months in London – Cell phone stolen.

With a small sample size, you might find a fellow whose phone was stolen by robbers in London, just as you can find people who got terrible sunburn from their holiday in Sweden.

It’s not going to be common however (people I know who work in London, are surprised how they don’t experience crime). London also has video cameras on most streets, so I doubt it’s a very easy place to have a career as a robber.

people upending a flash of acid on your face and running off with your phone, as is the new trend in Sadiq Khan’s London.

And being electrocuted by lightning, on a sunny day – might be a new trend for sunny days, if you believe the English media (there are articles in websites like Daily Mail).

I’m not interested enough to research myself. But in case anyone is – what do we think is the “acid on your face to steal your phone” victim rate per 100,000 of the population?

Even the low rate of 2.16 is higher than in a bunch of cities surrounding Phoenix (each with about 250,000

So you can find a few small cities of 250,000 in America,which have a lower murder rate, than the “murder capital of Europe”.

It proves a point.

London, in the most “murder epidemic year for a decade”, has a murder rate of 1.5 per 100,000. This city is the centre of black gangs and violence

Whereas in America, people might boast when they can find (but not name) a medium-small city of 250,000, that has have a murder rate below 2.1.

Functionally it is a meaningless difference… There are a bunch of mostly-white US states with a homicide rate of 2 or lower:

It’s not meaningless either in the real world (it means twice as many murders), or for the perception of Western European people.

You can see how much panic there is in London now, because its murder rate reached 1.52 last year (English media is writing about the terrible murders in London every week, and the television is discussing what a disaster it is that murder is so high and common in London).

Meanwhile, America’s low crime and safe cities like Salt Lake City, have a murder rate of 5.13 per 100,00.

Even a rural, bourgeois, white state like Vermont, has a higher murder rate than stone jungles like London .

you are about equally unlikely to be killed if you are a European in either America or Europe, you are noticeably more likely to be robbed in many western European countries than in

What’s very common in a couple of Western European countries, or at least Spain, is people take your phone or your wallet when you don’t see them. This is not a violent kind of robbery.

Cultural response, is that Spanish people typically always watch their bags, phones, wallets, very carefully, if you go out with them (in any other country).

This is a very small adjustment – i.e. don’t leave your bag unattended -, and it’s not like being terrorized by real crime.

Another kind of robbery or theft in Spain is that shop cashiers very often try to trick you by giving you the wrong change. It’s like some kind of sport there to trick people with the wrong change.

Meanwhile, with all this small crime that happens in Spain, the murder rate is 0,6 for every 100,000 people, and the effect on normal life does not seem very great.

or instance, in Ireland, various computer programmers get more money, but after they pay all the stuff- they’re left with even less money, let alone life: they have nothing of life- neither fornication nor family, nothing. They are treated as slaves- but they don’t complain there. Here, with 30% of “uneasiness�, they would noisily protest. There, they are obedient slaves.

Untrue.

Knowing the guy in question who wrote it initially to some extent, he was being actively yelled at in his job and arguably the opposite was true: while he was making some money, he was neither getting basic respect(of not being yelled at) nor really feeling like he was fulfilling any purpose(due to waste in the project). That and casual acceptance of nepotism and bullying, which might be all very conservative but its plenty unpleasant to live in when you’re smart, capable and want to do something for the world.

In the West now, there is plenty of pozzing but at least no one yells at him. He doesn’t have to socialize with people he doesn’t like in the work and pretend to be their friends and laugh at their jokes(all which takes away more time from doing what he might want otherwise). His work might still be pointless, but at least they’re nicer about it and everyone can pretend it is important.

Perhaps it is atomistic, but there are times when the impersonal machine is more pleasant than the personal nastiness of humanity.

Glasgow has a homicide

Even Glasgow has a lower murder rate than the safest US cities.

Glasgow’s murder rate is 2.16 per 100,000 (I just myself calculated from 2018 official Scotland’s government data).

This is very recent improvement. Until a couple of years ago Glasgow’s homicide rate was around 5, higher than in New York, Seattle, San Diego, San Jose, Austin, El Paso.

Even the low rate of 2.16 is higher than in a bunch of cities surrounding Phoenix (each with about 250,000 people but collectively about 750,000 people) and nearly the same as San Diego (population 1.4 million, homicide rate 2.46).

So you are still wrong.

It’s only high by local standards. Scotland’s murder rate is 1.1 per 100,000. (Which is lower than any American state).

Functionally it is a meaningless difference. If you feel safe with a murder rate of 1.1 you are not going to be scared with a murder rate of 2.1 (about trhe same as Estonia, and lower than Hungary – are thee places a “jungle”?). There are a bunch of mostly-white US states with a homicide rate of 2 or lower:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_homicide_rate

Overall, white homicide rate in the USA is 2.96:

https://www.colorlines.com/articles/where-does-your-state-rank-when-it-comes-black-homicide

Higher than western Europe and Visegrad, lower than former USSR. If you adjust by state, northern US whites are probably in Visegrad territory while those in the South are probably like ex-USSR.

Hardly a “jungle.”

Also, much of Western Europe has more robberies than America:

If this data means things like your girlfriend’s handbag stolen if she leaves it in the cafe – then e.g. Spanish cities like Barcelona are one of the worst places in the world.

No, you are talking about theft. Robbery is someone showing you a knife, or beating you up, and taking your wallet or purse or doing that to a clerk in a store.

https://www.lawyers.com/legal-info/criminal/types-of-crimes/what-s-the-difference-between-theft-and-robbery.html

The crimes of theft (sometimes known as “larceny�) and robbery both involve taking someone else’s money or property without permission. The main difference between the offenses is that robbery involves the use of force or intimidation. Because robbery involves force, it is usually considered a more serious crime than theft.

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So while you are about equally unlikely to be killed if you are a European in either America or Europe, you are noticeably more likely to be robbed in many western European countries than in the USA. This is probably because the Western European legal system tolerates criminals and allows them to be out on the streets.

Why not add journalists running chaotically in between each line of buses? Just a suggestion.

It’s called doing business. Australia a Western Country has done very well at it and is never described as such !

Well … hardly ever.

Temperature per capita fell by more than a degree between the beginning and the end of the USSR, while increasing by more than a degree in Canada.

Way to miss the whole point, Sherlock.

Obviously resource extraction got more important during the 20th century, hence larger populations to extract it were required.

That wasn’t the point. The point is that Russia has always been expanding northwards and eastwards, for important political, geographic and cultural reasons. Russia has been doing that even when resource extraction wasn’t as important.

Telling Russians to abandon Siberia is like telling Americans to abandon the American West because it’s too dry.

I.e., completely pants-on-head potato-tier retarded.

You may want to read up on these things a little bit.

See what I mean. You want to take all the fun out of it by becoming informed.

Yet something happened and Russia’s converge stalled with the West.

Communists and tribe happened. Just like it happens in the West today.
Communists labelled early period of 20th century in Russia as period of decline and despair. Ironically, Russian economy/GDP during this period before WWI was growing faster then any other major European economy (UK, France, Italy or Germany). Only US demonstrated higher levels of growth.

Why does China have significantly more capable elites?

Because their elites are Chinese.
Among 20 richest Russians
Mikhelson, Fridman, Abramovich, Vekselberg, Khan, Deripaska (30%) – Jews or Jewish descent. Where do you think their loyalty is?
Alekperov, Kerimov, Usmanov, Makhmudov (20%) – different historically Muslim ethnic groups.

Compare with the list of richest Chinese.

A lot of American highway and automobile related infrastructure will reach its 70 year birthday soon. (Interstate highway system was constructed from the 1950s).

There must be enormous need for reconstruction/replacement of infrastructure. Lifespan of a bridge is normally maximum of 70 years. So how many bridges will need to be replaced in the highway system?

Personally, I agree. A normal cold puddles of melted ice, in Spring, is nothing very serious – it just means you wear cheap shoes, or can even buy some waterproof shoes. (Just don’t wear expensive clothes those days).

Boiling water puddles, on the other hand, are a bit scary. When the boiling water leaks spreads around and cools, it’s just amusing

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But when it breaks under the road – e.g. in Tyumen, last month. It’s lucky people no-one was cooked like a lobster.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVZr4ydPsMk

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Last month, in Penza, two people were killed by boiling to death alive inside their car, when their car falls into a puddle of boiling water under the road.

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Glasgow has a homicide

Even Glasgow has a lower murder rate than the safest US cities.

Glasgow’s murder rate is 2.16 per 100,000 (I just myself calculated from 2018 official Scotland’s government data). It’s only high by local standards. Scotland’s murder rate is 1.1 per 100,000. (Which is lower than any American state).

skewed among a segregated sub-population of African-Americans and rarely affect others

You can blame murder problems on African Americans – but the whitest US cities are also have higher murder rates, than the blackest Western European cities.

For example, London had the highest murder rate for 10 years, last year – it was 1.52 per 100,000 people.

Also, much of Western Europe has more robberies than America:

If this data means things like your girlfriend’s handbag stolen if she leaves it in the cafe – then e.g. Spanish cities like Barcelona are one of the worst places in the world.

But the severity of this type of crime is low (buy a new bag, watch your things when in Barcelona, etc).

Therefore, people in Spain, do not feel exactly terrorized by crime, unlike populations in countries with high homicide rates.

Superficially a hellhole, but beneath the surface an interesting place with wildly different facets. Elements of Walking Dead, great music scenes, beautiful crumbling ruins, huge empty factories where people threw massive parties, mile after mile of the ugliest and most boring suburbs in America, charming well-policed rich piece of New England on Lake St. Clair right next to the ghetto, Eastern Europeans and Arabs (most of whom, in Detroit, are Christians), small islands of prosperity within the city patrolled by private security (like in Walking Dead among the zombies).

Much of the city is in ruins, and nature has come back. I’ve seen a pheasant when driving through the city. Here are some ruins:


The sort of place where in the early to mid 90s there were huge illegal parties, where local gangs were paid off to keep the cars and people safe:

I do not know how accurate is the description of corruption mechanism by your lawyer friend but I can easily imagine that it is very true because this is how corruption works everywhere. The difference is the scope. When it is excessive it chokes the economy and creates lots of resentment but below some critical level it is just a process of wealth extraction and reassignment within the propertarian class. The success of 19/20 century America was built by such corruption and the late coming of Germany into the success story of the economic development was because of lower level of this kind of corruption than in America.

So you’ve been to Detroit? What’s it like over there?

That’s interesting. I can’t say much for the roads of Northeast Ohio, which in many ways are in a state of permanent reconstruction. What I can say for sure is that the quality of the Ohio Turnpike has declined over the last 20 years. It formerly had a better reputation, and was run by a different agency. But when semi trucks were allowed to speed up to 70mph (113km/h), road damage considerably increased.

I was last in Indiana 10 years ago, and the roads were horrid, not sure if that’s changed.

Michigan has awful roads, the Dem Governor won election last year on a platform of “fix the damn roads”.

You are taking one poll

So did you, but when it turned out that the facts didn’t match your spin, suddenly it is a bad thing. And this poll is comparable across years back. Looking at the relevant age groups, it shows the opposite of your spin. Suddenly it isn’t convenient anymore.

Yikes.

Roads in Nashville deteriorated in the last 18 years, whereas roads in Moscow improved. Today roads in Moscow are better than roads in Nashville. BTW, in contrast to Moscow, a harsh winter in Nashville means only a few degrees below freezing.

Also, much of Western Europe has more robberies than America:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/robery/

Belgium, Spain, Portugal, UK and France

The “most dangerous� city in Western Europe, is safer than the most safe city in America

Nonsense.

Glasgow has a homicide rate of 5.1/100,000 and Belfast of 3.3/100,000:

https://www.cheatsheet.com/culture/most-dangerous-cities-in-europe.html/

In Naples it is 3.9.

Seattle (3.7) and New York (3.4) have lower homicide rates than Glasgow and Naples. San Jose (3.1), El Paso (2.8), Austin (2.6) and San Diego (2.5) have lower homicide rates than Glascow, Naples and Belfast.

Also keep in mind that American homicides tend to be skewed among a segregated sub-population of African-Americans and rarely affect others. There is no more a jungle where most American lives as in Europe.

Roads in Detroit are worse than roads in Moscow.

Never been to Moscow, I was just going by the pictures she posted. I see stuff like that every year.

I’d guess that most North American cities have better infrastructure than most Russian cities, and things like potholes, road surfaces, drainage etc. are probably less of a problem, and cities with harsh winters tend to have shittier roads in general. I just think it’s ridiculous to say that large puddles are such a degrading experience that they’d make you want to move countries, that’s just silly.

Am I alone in this? Perhaps I have just gotten used to the terrible, oppressive puddles, to the point that I don’t realize the extent of my degradation.

I don’t know about Moscow, to say about Toronto’s experience of Moscow. Moscow is a city with comparatively warm winters (i.e. includes warmer days in winter when ice can melt and partially drain), smooth asphalt and infinite municipal money – so, how bad can it be?

But as a general topic, puddles are no joke, including if you are driving a car. This happens because of melting ice after months, in the spring, uneven road surface and drainage. But the only dangerous one is a leak of boiling water.

Toronto in Canada might have good drainage systems. In addition, Toronto probably does not have a problem of leaking boiling water, if people heat water in their buildings.

all talk about exploring venues of …is rubbish. Most local “migrants� are just fine examples of slave mentality. For instance, in Ireland, various computer programmers get more money, but after they pay all the stuff- they’re left with even less money, let alone life: they have nothing of life- neither fornication nor family, nothing. They are treated as slaves- but they don’t complain there. Here, with 30% of “uneasiness�, they would noisily protest. There, they are obedient slaves.

Yeah, I find Arpad’s argument that people leave to go to the west for the work environment, of all things, questionable.

safe as European cities were before Europe committed suicide

?
Europe has a bad immigration policy, but still no need to exaggerate – Europe isn’t dangerous at all, beyond some incidents like terrorist attacks, which are as statistically less common by individual as lightning strikes.

The “most dangerous” city in Western Europe, is safer than the most safe city in America, and safer than most Russian cities as well.

Politics of Western Europe has become so gentle and emasculated, partly because Western European man has been one of the first in human history to live from childhood in a world where few people will experience violence in their life – which is an unnatural, or at least historically unprecedented, condition for man.

By comparison, America is still a real jungle (although statistically America is also becoming a lot safer since the 1980s).

people in Toronto are simply nicer to each other

This is very subjective.

You must be incredibly pampered to consider stepping over large puddles a degrading experience. As if there aren’t large muddy puddles of water in Canada.