numbers - はてな匿名ダイアリー

Moving up to the No. 6 spot globally for 2025 so far, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle has now grossed $633M.
Per Sony, that includes Japan and select other Asian markets. For Crunchyroll/Sony markets it equates to $324.6M.
The latter added $10.2M this weekend, including $6.7M overseas from 62 offshore hubs.

こんなの映画メディアどころか感想ブログでも感覚で見抜けないとダメなレベルだがシネマトゥデイはコタツに入りすぎてそういう能力を失ってるようだ

（追記）

シネマカフェさん、シネマトゥデイさんの落ちた落とし穴に追従するｗｗ

https://www.cinemacafe.net/article/2025/10/06/104186.html

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/dd665e333d45c9f24bcfc77f69156f7716cd880a

本作は全世界で7億5700万ドルを稼ぎ出し、

しかも出典明記さえ無し。一次情報かな？ｗ

コタツカフェさんの勇士に敬礼ｗ

Permalink | 記事への反応(4) | 12:19

2025-08-01

■[増田統計]2025年 7月の増田

日	記事数	文字数	文字数平均	文字数中央値
01	2748	1150536	418.7	46
02	28 23	840011	297.6	46
03	2676	333593	124.7	39
04	3928	2109761	537.1	53
05	3898	3813329	978.3	70
06	3227	414421	128.4	39
07	3350	1331430	397.4	52
08	3263	2178215	667.5	80
09	3201	1496622	467.5	65
10	2724	479251	175.9	46
11	2142	286349	133.7	39
12	2114	1326599	627.5	55
13	2339	248416	106.2	43
14	3039	11 17581	367.7	51
15	3916	1382930	353.1	54
16	2960	481963	162.8	43.5
17	3042	1379694	453.5	63
18	2999	1199142	399.8	73
19	2676	1292298	482.9	58
20	3577	728074	203.5	46
21	3697	2163142	585.1	76
22	3286	1735959	528.3	83
23	3303	1477039	447.2	75
24	4671	3460923	740.9	148
25	1935	520271	268.9	49
26	3233	2493734	771.3	227
27	2711	11 11687	410.1	101
28	4378	33920 11	774.8	565
29	3566	2652050	743.7	127.5
30	4386	6836232	1558.6	495
31	6870	7396885	1076.7	727
1月	102678	56830148	553.5	69

■ /20250620063320(354), ■ /20250708051936(305), ■白痴の女の子にゴミを食べさせて笑う社会に生きている /20250723050053(118), ■「選挙に行かない人」を叩く違和感 /20250712142415(99), ■東大卒だけど、チームみらいは苦手だ。 /20250718014412(95), ■別に嫁の肩を持ちたくないわけではないが、実家と仲良くしてほしいだけ /20250706004352(84), ■「BL＝性欲」という決めつけにモヤる話 /20250730165519(71), ■ /20250720211260(69), ■リベラルは反省しろって言うやつに聞きたい /20250717040810(58), ■ゲームやAVは社会の「割れ窓」 /20250724 110825(57), ■BLというジャンルが終わるかもしれない /20250729013213(57), ■三上悠亜と職業差別女だったら前者を恋人にしたいに決まってるだろ /202507290031 28(56), ■こだわりを捨てれば金は稼げる /20250720211432(54), ■40歳で資産6000万あったら仕事辞めちゃっていいのかな？ /20250729121336(53), ■法律って「お気持ち」の集合体みたいなもんじゃないの…？ /20250703194504(51), ■「差別は多様な考え方の１つではない」 /20250720214149(51), ■参院選は初めて白紙投票するよ /20250704081733(49), ■なんか久しぶりに増田に来たけど /20250701125568(48), (タイトル不明) /20250708044816(48), ■ /20250725181216(47), ■日本共産党というアホみたいに勘違いされている政党 /20250722063108(47), ■きょうだい格差のやつ見て思い出した。 /20250708234043(45), ■1人旅行って何したら楽しいの？ /20250720211738(44), ■出産費用って私(嫁)が払うの？ /2025011 1190924(43), ■２０２５大阪万博に行った。今までで最低のユーザー体験だった。 /20250713172930(43), ■そろそろ少子化対策に男性も含めようぜ /20250716111902(43), ■「汁物から手をつけるように」と言われて育たないのか /20250722084231(43), ■映画『国宝』の児童虐待描写はいいの？ /20250726081611(43), ■女性にも男性と同じように安心安全に生活する権利がある /20250724092330(41), ■ /20250723 205156(40), ■ブクマカって何ファーストなん？ /20250714161638(39), ■選挙に投票したらコメントする日記 /20250720081257(39), ■愛国心を持って何が悪いってワードうまいよな /20250714182110(38), ■バカなんで消費税について教えてほしいんだが /202507011 31 201(38), ■もしかして石破茂は稀代の名宰相なのか？ /20250724095352(38), ■参政党が勢力拡大したのってインテリリベラルが悪いよな /20250709164305(38), ■なんか革命的な暑さ対策無いの？ /20250705143715(37), ■いい加減、子育ての責務を社会の責務とすべき /20250719130402(37), ■Detailed Guide to QuickBooks Support Contact Numbers in the USA for 2025 /20250731 200952(36), ■Full List of QuickBooks Desktop ® Support Numbers in the USA: An Official Guide new /20250731 200919(36), ■ヒカルの碁大好きとか言ってるのに囲碁のルールわからないって言ってるやつ見ると /20250715212838(36), ■生成AIを利用したプログラミング初級者向けの温故知新な提案 /20250705193628(36), ■DELLのサポートがひどすぎる件 /20250711214843(36), ■カップリングオンリーに原作者が降臨したので、ジャンルを降りた。 /2025071520 1135(36), ■詐欺電話に泣かされそうになって悔しい /20250728 203642(35), ■恋人と仲良くない /20250730143406(35), ■コンビニで私物を冷やしてたら、出禁になった /20250708105412(34), ■外国人問題って、そもそもの原因はアベノミクスじゃんね /20250716224523(34), ■三上悠亜問題 /20250729001905(34), ■家族が陰謀論者になったよ /20250702013209(34)

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 02:22

2025-07-28

■Expedi𝖆™ USA: Direct Contact Numbers Support Guide 2025

El número principal de atención al cliente de Delta Airlines ® es 1-800-Delta Airlines ® o 1⇥ 844⇥ 429⇥ 1424 o 1⇥ 844⇥ 429⇥ 1424, disponible 24/7 para asistencia en vivo. Comuníquese con un representante en vivo si necesita ayuda con cambios de reserva, cancelaciones, reembolsos o consultas sobre compensaciones. También puede contactar .

https://discourse.libsdl.org/t/11-maneras-de-contactar-con-el-servicio-al-cliente-de-delta-airlines-por-telefono-correo-electronico-o-chat-guia-completa-de-ayuda/61064

https://discourse.libsdl.org/t/11-formas-de-llamar-al-servicio-de-atencion-al-cliente-de-delta-airlines-telefono-correo-electronico-o-chat-una-guia-paso-a-paso/61154

https://discourse.libsdl.org/t/guia-paso-a-paso-12-maneras-sencillas-de-contactar-con-delta-airlines-por-telefono-chat-y-correo-electronico/61171

Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 22:22

2025-03-18

■anond:20250318111936

了解 しました。2023年の日本車主要メーカー（トヨタ、ホンダ、日産、スバル、マツダ、三菱）が、米国内生産以外の自動車に25％の関税が課された場合の販売台数と生産台数の変化を予測 します。

前提条件**

期間は直近1年間（2024年）。
価格上昇による需要減を考慮し、大衆向けモデルでは15～30％の需要減、ラグジュアリーモデルでは5～10％の需要減を想定。
米国内工場の生産能力増加は現在の生産台数の115％を上限とする。
増設や投資は考慮せず、既存設備の範囲内での対応とする。
他ブランド（米国・韓国・欧州メーカー）へのシフトは、各国の国内生産割合に応じた影響を考慮し、韓国・欧州・中国メーカーも同様の関税を受けると仮定する。

これらの条件で、日本メーカー各社の米国内販売台数と生産台数の変化をシミュレーションし、結果をお知らせします。

* *

メーカー別・生産国別の販売台数 予測**

2023年には日本の主要6メーカー（トヨタ、ホンダ、日産、スバル、マツダ、三菱）の米国新車販売台数合計が約554万台となり、米国市場全体の3割強を占めました。

例えば、トヨタ（レクサス含む）は約224.8万台 [^1]、三菱は約8.7万台 [^2]。

関税が導入され車両価格が上昇すると、特に大衆車の需要が大きく落ち込み、高価格帯モデルの落ち込みは比較的小幅にとどまると想定されます（高価格帯モデルの需要減少は約5～10%、大衆向けモデルは約15～30%減）。

これに基づき、各メーカーについて**米国生産車（関税非課税）**と**日本生産車（関税課税対象の輸入車）**に分けた2024年米国販売台数予測は以下のとおりです。

トヨタ（レクサス含む）**

米国生産分：約115万台
輸入分：約70万台
**合計：約185万台（前年比18%減）**
高価格帯のレクサス車は約10%減、主力のトヨタブランド車（大衆車中心）は約20%減と想定されます。
関税後も販売台数の約6割強を米国生産車で賄える見込み。

ホンダ（アキュラ含む）**

米国生産分：約92万台
輸入分：約16万台
**合計：約108万台（前年比17%減）**
高価格帯のアキュラは約10%減、ホンダブランドの大衆車は約20%減と想定。
販売台数の約85%を関税の影響を受けない米国生産分で販売。

日産（インフィニティ含む）**

米国生産分：約65万台
輸入分：約3～5万台
**合計：約68万台（前年比25%減）**
関税後は主力車種の生産を最大限米国にシフトし、販売台数の約9割超を米国生産分でまかなう。

スバル**

米国生産分：約46万台
輸入分：約8万台
**合計：約54万台（前年比15%減）**
ブランド忠誠度が高く、価格弾力性が比較的低いため、需要減は約15%にとどまる。

マツダ**

米国生産分：約6万台
輸入分：約23万台
**合計：約29万台（前年比20%減）**
米国生産分は増加するものの、全体の約80%は日本からの輸入に依存。

三菱**

米国生産分：**0台**（工場無し）
輸入分：約6万台
**合計：約6万台（前年比30%減）**
関税の価格転嫁による大衆車需要減少率が最大。

* *

参考資料**

[^1]: [Toyota Motor North America Reports 20 23 U.S. Sales Results - Toyota USA Newsroom](https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-2023-u-s-sales-results/#:~:text=PLANO%2C%20Texas%20%28Jan,basis%20compared%20to%202022)

[^2]: [National Auto Sales Numbers For All Automakers In 20 23](https://www.carpro.com/blog/national-auto-sales-numbers-for-all-automakers-in-2023#:~:text=,Mitsubishi)

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 12:16

2025-02-12

■男の便所は1分半　女の便所は3分半

ボストンから成田への国際線に乗ったとき、席がトイレのすぐ近くだったことがある。国際線に乗ったことがある人なら知っていると思うが、人が途切れなくトイレに出たり入ったりするから、この席はくつろげない。

もうどうしようもないので、トイレに入っている人の滞在時間をiPhoneのNumbers アプリで一人ずつ記録して暇をつぶしたことがある。Numbersは「今」のボタンを押すだけで現在時刻がスプレッドシートに挿入できるから、それを使ってトイレの入室時刻と退室時刻を打刻した。入室時刻と退室時刻の差からトイレの滞在時間が測れる。

調査場所：　国際線航空機のトイレ

調査人数：　男性と女性それぞれ30人ぐらい

調査対象者：　さまざまな国籍の人

男女別にトイレの平均滞在時間を集計してみたら、男性が約1分半、女性が約3分半だった。

まったく同じ設備を使っても、男と女のトイレ滞在時間には明らかに差があった。もう言い訳できないレベルで女の便所はくそ長い。

Permalink | 記事への反応(2) | 20:56

2025-02-02

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在 可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy of human ity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart

ChatGPT

Reas oned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluating planetary prospects

OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candid ate.

Identifying potential candid ates

I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.

Assessing potential candid ates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIS T-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candid ates for advanced civilizations.

Assessing habitable zones

I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIS T-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIS T-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revis iting exoplanet options

I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.

Refining odds

I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e.

Clarifying speculative nature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.

Mapping out speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complex ity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessing likelihoods

I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.

Piecing together speculative odds

I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and a dding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.

Piecing together

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.

Assessing civilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.

Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candid ate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let al one advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIS T-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIS T-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIS T-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?

Earth’s Example:

On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candid ates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIS T-1 System (e, f, g):

These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.

LHS 1140 b:

This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.

A Final Note

All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use

ChatGPT

Reas oned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation's value

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its crit ic ism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate pred ictive model.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for pred icting extraterrestrial civilizations.

The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, pred ictive formula. Let’s break down why:

The Drake Equation

The equation is usually written as:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

×n

e

×f

l

×f

i

×f

c

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.

𝐿

L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.

Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Some factors, like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formation rate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.

Highly Speculative Factors:

The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

, and

𝐿

L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a stat istic ally robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of Possible Values:

Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for

𝑁

N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.

Heuristic, Not Pred ictive:

The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In the sense of being a strict mathemat ical model with well-defined inputs and pred ic table outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especia lly those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate pred iction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reas oned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-human intelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.

Piecing together possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.

Reflecting on potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the pred ictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallel evolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.

Evaluating life exploration

I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.

Adapting the equ Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 21:12

■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在 可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy of human ity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart

ChatGPT

Reas oned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluating planetary prospects

OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candid ate.

Identifying potential candid ates

I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.

Assessing potential candid ates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIS T-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candid ates for advanced civilizations.

Assessing habitable zones

I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIS T-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIS T-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revis iting exoplanet options

I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.

Refining odds

I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIS T-1 e.

Clarifying speculative nature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.

Mapping out speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complex ity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessing likelihoods

I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.

Piecing together speculative odds

I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and a dding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.

Piecing together

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.

Assessing civilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.

Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candid ate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let al one advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIS T-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIS T-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIS T-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?

Earth’s Example:

On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candid ates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIS T-1 System (e, f, g):

These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.

LHS 1140 b:

This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.

A Final Note

All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use

ChatGPT

Reas oned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation's value

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its crit ic ism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate pred ictive model.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for pred icting extraterrestrial civilizations.

The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, pred ictive formula. Let’s break down why:

The Drake Equation

The equation is usually written as:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

×n

e

×f

l

×f

i

×f

c

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.

𝐿

L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.

Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Some factors, like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formation rate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.

Highly Speculative Factors:

The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

, and

𝐿

L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a stat istic ally robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of Possible Values:

Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for

𝑁

N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.

Heuristic, Not Pred ictive:

The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In the sense of being a strict mathemat ical model with well-defined inputs and pred ic table outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especia lly those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate pred iction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reas oned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-human intelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.

Piecing together possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.

Reflecting on potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the pred ictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallel evolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.

Evaluating life exploration

I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.

Adapting the equ Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 21:12

2024-05-30

■How do I speak to someone on Qatar Airways??#Call~Now Guide2024

[QATAR~Airways]™ How do I speak to someone on Qatar Airways??#Call~Now

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Permalink | 記事への反応(0) | 15:34

2024-04-07

■anond:20240407132647

エクセル自体はすごいよねー

すごすぎるくらいすごい

自宅はマックが多いけど表計算はNumbersとか💩

エクセルしか使いたくない

Permalink | 記事への反応(1) | 13:28

2024-02-16

■オーストラリアの作家メリンダ・タンカード・リーストについて調べた

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melinda_Tankard_Reist

・1963年生まれ

・反ポルノ、反売春運動で知られる作家

・女性と少女の擁護者であり、プロライフ・フェミニスト（中絶反対フェミニスト）であると自称している

・著書：悲しみの言葉を贈る：中絶後の悲しみの女性の物語、「反抗的な出産: 医療優生学に抵抗する女性たち」、少女の性的化への挑戦、世界的なポルノ産業の害悪を暴露する、売春の物語: 性産業における生存の物語

・2009年、彼女は、製品やサービスを販売するために女性を対象化し、少女を性的対象とする広告主、企業、マーケティング担当者をターゲットとする草の根運動運動である、性搾取のない世界のためのコレクティブ・シャウトを共同設立した

今回のH＆Mの件

・「女の子の親は一般的に、娘が学校に行くとき、バスに乗るとき、授業中に歩いているのを他人が見ても、頭を『向けない』ことを好む」と述べた（Twitter）

　「小さな女子学生は一般的に『注目を集めたい』とは思っていません。私が学校で関わっている多くの人々は、自分たちの外見に不必要な注目を集めたくないため、一人になって学んだり楽しんだりすることを望んでいます。

　（“Little schoolgirls generally don’t want to ‘turn heads.’ The large numbers I engage with in schools want to be left alone to learn and have fun and not draw unwanted attention to their appearance.”）

・「どうして小さな女の子は自分の外見、体、そして「スタイル」に注目を集めるべきだという考えを煽りたいのですか？おそらくマーケティングチームに一言相談して、『ルッキズム』を願望目標として評価する文化の中で成長しようとすでに苦労している思春期前の少女たちの注意を引かないようなものを考えてはいかがでしょうか?」