  |
はてなキーワード: numbersとは
ここでいうdomesticは北米のことな。box office mojoもthe numbersも北米のサイトなので。
internationalは北米以外の全部。
worldwideはdomestic+international=世界全部のこと。
で、mojoは全世界=worldwideの興行収入が7.5憶と言ってて、シネマトゥデイもそれにのっかってるが、内訳が北米1.2億+international6.3億だとなっているの。
で他のサイトを見ると北米1.2憶は合ってるけどinternationalは5.1憶で、全世界(worldwide)は6.3憶だっていってるわけ。
ちなみに先週のworldwideは6.1憶だった。
普通に考えて主要国のオープニング成績が出そろった後でいきなり1.4億ドル(200億円くらいか)稼ぐなんて無理なので、mojoがinternational=北米以外のとこにworldwide=全世界の数字を間違っていれちゃってるよねってこと。
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/ac9a4dc1bff1c4087fc1978d751857b0bfe000f3
https://www.cinematoday.jp/news/N0151193
『劇場版「鬼滅の刃」無限城編 第一章 猗窩座再来』の世界興行収入が5日までに7億5,763万3,973ドル（約1,136億円）に達し、
映画メディアの癖にちょっと前に6憶ドル突破がいきなり7.5憶ドルいくわけないだろという当たり前の感覚が無いので平気で大誤報やらかしてしまっている。
参照元のBoxOfficeMojoのサイトに行くとこうなってる
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl53837825/?ref_=bo_hm_rd
Domestic (16.5%)
$124,633,973
International (83.5%)
$633,000,000
Worldwide
$757,633,973
より正確なThe Numbersのほうはこうなってる
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Demon-Slayer-Kimetsu-no-Yaiba-The-Movie-Infinity-Castle-(2025-Japan)#tab=box-office
Domestic Box Office $124,634,000
International Box Office $508,366,000
全世界633M。つまりBox Office Mojo はInternationalのほうに633Mを計上してしまって、Domestic(米国)の分が2重計上になってる。
Deadlineでもこうなってる
Moving up to the No. 6 spot globally for 2025 so far, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle has now grossed $633M.
Per Sony, that includes Japan and select other Asian markets. For Crunchyroll/Sony markets it equates to $324.6M.
The latter added $10.2M this weekend, including $6.7M overseas from 62 offshore hubs.
こんなの映画メディアどころか感想ブログでも感覚で見抜けないとダメなレベルだがシネマトゥデイはコタツに入りすぎてそういう能力を失ってるようだ
（追記）
シネマカフェさん、シネマトゥデイさんの落ちた落とし穴に追従するｗｗ
https://www.cinemacafe.net/article/2025/10/06/104186.html
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/dd665e333d45c9f24bcfc77f69156f7716cd880a
| 日 | 記事数 | 文字数 | 文字数平均 | 文字数中央値 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2748 | 1150536 | 418.7 | 46 |
| 02 | 2823 | 840011 | 297.6 | 46 |
| 03 | 2676 | 333593 | 124.7 | 39 |
| 04 | 3928 | 2109761 | 537.1 | 53 |
| 05 | 3898 | 3813329 | 978.3 | 70 |
| 06 | 3227 | 414421 | 128.4 | 39 |
| 07 | 3350 | 1331430 | 397.4 | 52 |
| 08 | 3263 | 2178215 | 667.5 | 80 |
| 09 | 3201 | 1496622 | 467.5 | 65 |
| 10 | 2724 | 479251 | 175.9 | 46 |
| 11 | 2142 | 286349 | 133.7 | 39 |
| 12 | 2114 | 1326599 | 627.5 | 55 |
| 13 | 2339 | 248416 | 106.2 | 43 |
| 14 | 3039 | 1117581 | 367.7 | 51 |
| 15 | 3916 | 1382930 | 353.1 | 54 |
| 16 | 2960 | 481963 | 162.8 | 43.5 |
| 17 | 3042 | 1379694 | 453.5 | 63 |
| 18 | 2999 | 1199142 | 399.8 | 73 |
| 19 | 2676 | 1292298 | 482.9 | 58 |
| 20 | 3577 | 728074 | 203.5 | 46 |
| 21 | 3697 | 2163142 | 585.1 | 76 |
| 22 | 3286 | 1735959 | 528.3 | 83 |
| 23 | 3303 | 1477039 | 447.2 | 75 |
| 24 | 4671 | 3460923 | 740.9 | 148 |
| 25 | 1935 | 520271 | 268.9 | 49 |
| 26 | 3233 | 2493734 | 771.3 | 227 |
| 27 | 2711 | 1111687 | 410.1 | 101 |
| 28 | 4378 | 3392011 | 774.8 | 565 |
| 29 | 3566 | 2652050 | 743.7 | 127.5 |
| 30 | 4386 | 6836232 | 1558.6 | 495 |
| 31 | 6870 | 7396885 | 1076.7 | 727 |
| 1月 | 102678 | 56830148 | 553.5 | 69 |
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これらの条件で、日本メーカー各社の米国内販売台数と生産台数の変化をシミュレーションし、結果をお知らせします。
2023年には日本の主要6メーカー（トヨタ、ホンダ、日産、スバル、マツダ、三菱）の米国新車販売台数合計が約554万台となり、米国市場全体の3割強を占めました。
例えば、トヨタ（レクサス含む）は約224.8万台 [^1]、三菱は約8.7万台 [^2]。
関税が導入され車両価格が上昇すると、特に大衆車の需要が大きく落ち込み、高価格帯モデルの落ち込みは比較的小幅にとどまると想定されます（高価格帯モデルの需要減少は約5～10%、大衆向けモデルは約15～30%減）。
これに基づき、各メーカーについて**米国生産車（関税非課税）**と**日本生産車（関税課税対象の輸入車）**に分けた2024年米国販売台数予測は以下のとおりです。
[^1]: [Toyota Motor North America Reports 2023 U.S. Sales Results - Toyota USA Newsroom](https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-2023-u-s-sales-results/#:~:text=PLANO%2C%20Texas%20%28Jan,basis%20compared%20to%202022)
[^2]: [National Auto Sales Numbers For All Automakers In 2023](https://www.carpro.com/blog/national-auto-sales-numbers-for-all-automakers-in-2023#:~:text=,Mitsubishi)
ボストンから成田への国際線に乗ったとき、席がトイレのすぐ近くだったことがある。国際線に乗ったことがある人なら知っていると思うが、人が途切れなくトイレに出たり入ったりするから、この席はくつろげない。
もうどうしようもないので、トイレに入っている人の滞在時間をiPhoneのNumbersアプリで一人ずつ記録して暇をつぶしたことがある。Numbersは「今」のボタンを押すだけで現在時刻がスプレッドシートに挿入できるから、それを使ってトイレの入室時刻と退室時刻を打刻した。入室時刻と退室時刻の差からトイレの滞在時間が測れる。
男女別にトイレの平均滞在時間を集計してみたら、男性が約1分半、女性が約3分半だった。
まったく同じ設備を使っても、男と女のトイレ滞在時間には明らかに差があった。もう言い訳できないレベルで女の便所はくそ長い。
Please consider the histroy of humanity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う
Evaluating planetary prospects
OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advanced civilizations.
I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.
Refining odds
I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.
Piecing together speculative odds
I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and adding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.
Piecing together
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.
Assessing civilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.
Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let alone advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?
Earth’s Example:
On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candidates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).
These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.
LHS 1140 b:
This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.
All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation's value
OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its criticism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate predictive model.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for predicting extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, predictive formula. Let’s break down why:
The equation is usually written as:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.
𝐿
L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.
Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.
The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of Possible Values:
Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for
𝑁
N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.
The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In the sense of being a strict mathematical model with well-defined inputs and predictable outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.
In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-human intelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.
Piecing together possibilities
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.
I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.
Please consider the histroy of humanity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う
Evaluating planetary prospects
OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advanced civilizations.
I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.
Refining odds
I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.
Piecing together speculative odds
I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and adding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.
Piecing together
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.
Assessing civilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.
Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let alone advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?
Earth’s Example:
On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candidates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).
These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.
LHS 1140 b:
This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.
All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation's value
OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its criticism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate predictive model.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for predicting extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, predictive formula. Let’s break down why:
The equation is usually written as:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.
𝐿
L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.
Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.
The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of Possible Values:
Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for
𝑁
N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.
The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In the sense of being a strict mathematical model with well-defined inputs and predictable outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.
In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-human intelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.
Piecing together possibilities
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.
I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melinda_Tankard_Reist
・女性と少女の擁護者であり、プロライフ・フェミニスト（中絶反対フェミニスト）であると自称している
・著書：悲しみの言葉を贈る：中絶後の悲しみの女性の物語、「反抗的な出産: 医療優生学に抵抗する女性たち」、少女の性的化への挑戦、世界的なポルノ産業の害悪を暴露する、売春の物語: 性産業における生存の物語
・2009年、彼女は、製品やサービスを販売するために女性を対象化し、少女を性的対象とする広告主、企業、マーケティング担当者をターゲットとする草の根運動運動である、性搾取のない世界のためのコレクティブ・シャウトを共同設立した
今回のH＆Mの件
・「女の子の親は一般的に、娘が学校に行くとき、バスに乗るとき、授業中に歩いているのを他人が見ても、頭を『向けない』ことを好む」と述べた（Twitter）
「小さな女子学生は一般的に『注目を集めたい』とは思っていません。私が学校で関わっている多くの人々は、自分たちの外見に不必要な注目を集めたくないため、一人になって学んだり楽しんだりすることを望んでいます。
（“Little schoolgirls generally don’t want to ‘turn heads.’ The large numbers I engage with in schools want to be left alone to learn and have fun and not draw unwanted attention to their appearance.”）
・「どうして小さな女の子は自分の外見、体、そして「スタイル」に注目を集めるべきだという考えを煽りたいのですか？おそらくマーケティング チームに一言相談して、『ルッキズム』を願望目標として評価する文化の中で成長しようとすでに苦労している思春期前の少女たちの注意を引かないようなものを考えてはいかがでしょうか?」
おそらく一部炎上したのは「振り向かせよう」の部分だと思うが
この人や界隈の主張だとおそらく「かわいい」とかもNGなんだと思われる
こういう人って昔は有益だったと思うんだけど
今では薬が毒になってしまっている
少女全員を代弁しているのはやりすぎ
ChatGTPに、ディスクレシアについて尋ねました。
ディスクレシアとはなんですか？
ディスクレシアは、精神疾患の一種で、知能や思考能力に障害をもたらすことがあります。その主な症状は、思考の鈍さ、記憶障害、注意散漫、抑うつなどがあります。この病気は、アルツハイマー病などの認知症の一種としても知られています。
ディスレクシアとはなんですか？
"Dyslexia" is a learning disorder characterized by difficulty in reading, despite normal intelligence. It is a specific learning disability that is neurological in origin. It is characterized by difficulties with accurate and/or fluent word recognition, and by poor spelling and decoding abilities. These difficulties typically result from a deficit in the phonological component of language that is often unexpected in relation to other cognitive abilities and the provision of effective classroom instruction. It is not due to a lack of motivation, sensory impairment, or other environmental, cultural, or linguistic factors.
Could you tell me what dysclesia is?
Dyscalculia is a specific learning disability in which individuals have difficulty with math. They may struggle with understanding numbers, learning math facts, performing mathematical calculations, and grasping math concepts. These difficulties are not due to a lack of intelligence or motivation, but rather a neurological condition that affects the way the brain processes mathematical information. Some common symptoms of dyscalculia include difficulty with basic arithmetic, difficulty with word problems, and difficulty understanding math symbols and concepts.
医学生物学論文の 70%以上が、再現できない - 目次 | Nature
特に医学の試験・研究で、実施している薬や治療法などの性質を、医師（観察者）からも患者からも不明にして行う方法である。プラセボ効果や観察者バイアスの影響を防ぐ意味がある。
２０１６年１１月１２日放送 テレビ朝日 テレメンタリー２０１６「ＤＮＡ鑑定の闇Ⅲ ～崩れる”証拠の王”の座～」
‟同じ『９カ所』のＤＮＡ型を持つ人間が複数人いた”というもの。実は、日本では『９カ所』を調べたＤＮＡ型が決め手で、実刑・服役中の事件がある。しかし、再審の請求すら出来ていない。唯一の証拠〝ＤＮＡ資料〟が警察によって、破棄されてしまったからだ。警察が独占し、かつての「自白」に代わる〝証拠の王〟となったＤＮＡ鑑定。その闇に迫るシリーズ第３弾。
テレビ朝日系列 テレメンタリー２０１５ 「ＤＮＡ鑑定の闇 〜捜査機関“独占”の危険性〜」
ＤＮＡ鑑定が一審有罪の決め手となった事件で、衝撃の再鑑定結果が出た。警察が「鑑定不能」としていたものを再鑑定したところ、簡単にできた上に、しかも別人のＤＮＡ型が出てきたのだ。なぜ、こうしたことが起きたのか。事件の深層をあぶり出し、捜査機関のＤＮＡ鑑定“独占”の危険性に迫る。
9箇所の型が全部一致する確率は「黒人では5億6千万人に1人、白人では7億5千万人に1人」とされてきたものの、約6万5000人分のDNA型を収録した犯罪データベースを調べたら、9箇所一致が122組も（10箇所一致は10組、11箇所だと1組、12箇所一致の1組は兄弟）
Observed partial matches in Arizona data
number of matching loci number of partial matches
9 122
11 1
12 1
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血痕は語る
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UNLUCKY NUMBERS
Richard Gill is fighting the shoddy statistics that put nurses in prison for serial murder
コロナは大したことない派（漂白剤を飲めば治る派含む）を指す用法と、マスク警察系コロナ過剰警戒派を指す用法があるのがおもしろい
英辞郎 on the WEB 〈俗〉コビディオット◆コロナウイルス感染症の予防対策や警告を無視したり、食料品や日用品を大量に買いだめて品薄状態を引き起こし、人々の不安をあおったりするばかな人(idiot)
Cambridge Dictionary someone who behaves in a stupid way that risks spreading the infectious disease Covid-19:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/covidiot (derogatory, humorous, neologism) A person who is foolishly reckless with respect to avoiding contracting or spreading COVID-19.
Relating to the 2020 Covid-19 virus:
Someone who ignores the warnings regarding public health or safety.
A person who hoards goods, denying them from their neighbors.
Did you see that covidiot with 300 rolls of toilet paper in his basket?
That covidiot is hugging everyone she sees.
A person who makes themselves look like an idiot, during or after a pandemic.
1. A stupid person who stubbornly ignores 'social distancing' protocol, thus helping to further spread COVID-19.
A person that flies into a pandemic zone for holiday with their children, barely is able to return and shares their harrowing experience on social media for hero points.
1. A perfect term for those spreading, creating or publishing unverified and false information about the novel coronavirus.
2. An idiot who doubts the existence of COVID-19, therefore ignoring the need for social distancing and proper hand washing.
Covidiot: an individual who in the face of dire circumstances for all, acts selfishly toward others instead of in solidarity and with generosity.
Idiots who think Covid is a real threat and idiotically cover their face with a mask fearfully.
A person who "isn't worried" about Covid-19 because they "aren't old enough." (This does not discount the Covidiot having asthma, obesity, or another major risk factor).
Someone who goes on numerous pointless excursions during the aforementioned pandemic, often against local ruling, because they are hollow inside, utterly selfish, and, most probably, lick hand railings.
On the extreme, either denies Covid-19 is an issue at all (or real) and/or completely loses their shit and buys no more soap than usual BUT every last disenfectant product & T.P. roll.**
A person who has no medical background and makes statements about the Coronavirus pandemic founded on dubious sources, i.e. social media, an acquaintance, etc
A person who ignores the governments and health organization's recommendations in regards to the COVID-19 pandemic.
People that have no brain cells and can’t understand what social distancing means. People that make others life miserable in lockdown by continually mixing with others, therefore making the lockdown last longer because it fails .
A person who does not follow guidlines, listen to advice or think about their actions during the COVID-19 pandemic
A person who deliberately coughs on other people and thinks it is funny
An idiot who can’t respect common sense and basic science enough to to help stop the spread of disease.
Someone who is freaking out too much about covid and revolves everything they do around it. Also they treat anyone who doesn’t strictly follow guidelines like a murderer
Person in ICU for weeks blocking people from getting surgery
1. A covidiot is someone who rejects overwhelming evidence, provided by scientists, while promoting his opinions as facts.
2. Someone who, during a pandemic refuses to wear a mask in Walmart.
3. Anyone who thinks drinking bleach will cure anything.
Synonyms include: anti-vaccer, flat-earther, alien conspiracy theorist, climate change denier
A person who advocates for lockdowns, mandatory masks, school shutdowns, and other infringements on liberty based on unsettled science. This kind of person has nothing going on in their life except the sweet dopamine rush they get from self-righteously judging everyone else and tattling on people who don't trust the "experts." Usually talks about "science" a lot but has no background in math or science.
Someone who believes everything they hear on TV and other mainstream media, yet chooses to ignore official CDC numbers, such as how Covid has a 99.9997% recovery rate for those under 30, and 99.92% recovery rate for those 70+. They also ignore the fact that health "experts" on TV have told us that hospitals mark just about any death as a Covid death, no matter how they died, simply because they tested positive for Covid or were merely suspected of such.
Thus, these people wear their masks everywhere they go like it's a status symbol, while believing it actually does any good.
Zen4アーキテクチャーを搭載するRyzenシリーズについては2022年秋頃に投入が予定されており、デスクトップ向けCPUは『Raphael』、モバイル向けは『Phoenix』と言うコードネームで呼ばれています。
アーキテクチャー的にはZen4は現行のZen3から大きく進化するメジャーアップデートになると見られています。
Ryzenシリーズについては2020年に発売がされたRyzenが『Zen3』で世代的にはZen、Zen+、Zen2からZen3という事で第4世代呼ばれています。2022年初旬には第5世代に当たる『Zen3+』が搭載されたRyzenの投入が予定されており、Zen4についてはその次に登場する事から第6世代になると見られています。
なお、モデルナンバーについては2021年11月時点では不確定です。
これは、2022年初旬にモバイル向けZen3+搭載Ryzenとデスクトップ向けに3D V-Cacheを搭載したRyzenが登場しますが、これら2つのモデルがどのようなモデルナンバーを与えられるかによって変わるためです。今時点では、Zen3+が7000シリーズに、3D V-Cacheモデルが6000シリーズになると言われているので、Zen4は8000シリーズとなる可能性はありますが、ここではまだ不確定としています。
アーキテクチャー刷新とTSMC 5nm採用で、IPCを大幅向上
Zen4アーキテクチャーではZen3に対して大きく進化すると見られています。
Zen4アーキテクチャーを採用するEPYC GenoaのES品を手に入れた者によるリーク情報によると、Zen3を採用するEPYC Milanに対してES品と言う段階で既に同一クロックでの動作はZen3に対して29%程度向上しているとの事です。また、動作クロックについてもZen3より向上を見込んでいるとの事でAMD製CPUでは困難だった5.0GHzの壁も超えられるCPUになる可能性があると2021年2月時点のリークでは語られています。
5nm『Zen4』RyzenはIPC25%向上へ。性能は『Zen3』より40%増し
パフォーマンスが大きく向上している背景としては、Zen4ではTSMC 5nmプロセスを活用する事や、I/OダイについてもGlobal Foundryの14nmプロセスからTSMC 7nmプロセスに進化する事で全体的なパフォーマンス底上げに繋がっていると考えられます。
スッポン現象と決別。ソケットはLGA化されたソケットAM5が採用
Zen4 Ryzen "Raphael"採用のAM5モックアップ出現。TDPは最高170Wか
AMDのRyzenシリーズは2016年に発売された第一世代Ryzenから長らくソケットAM4を採用しています。このソケットAM4ではCPUとマザーボードを繋ぐピンがCPU側に搭載されたPGAが採用され、CPUの取り扱いに関してはIntelなどで採用されているLGA（マザーボード側にピンが搭載）モデルより扱いに注意が必要です。
特にこの機構ではCPUとCPUクーラーを密着させるシリコングリスが固着すると、CPUクーラーを外す際にCPUのソケットがロックされているにも関わらず、CPUがソケットから抜けてしまう現象があります。これが、スッポンと言う名前で親しまれていますが、このスッポンはいわば無理やりCPUがソケットから抜かれてしまうため、CPU側のピンが折れて動作不良に陥るような事態があります。
そんな、AMDのソケットAM4ですが、Zen4世代からソケットAM5へ進化する予定になっており、このAM5ではIntelでメジャーだったLGAが採用される事になっています。
170W TDP seems to only be for a special variant, not the normal CPUs for sure
— ExecutableFix (@ExecuFix) May 25, 2021
ピンの数は1718本となっており、IntelのAlder Lakeで採用されているLGA1700に近いピン数になっています。ただ、CPU裏のレイアウトでは、Intel側がCPUの中央付近に電源回路関係が敷き詰められているのに対して、AMDのZen4では裏面は全て接触パッドが敷き詰められており、CPUの表側にヒートスプレッターに切り欠きを設けて、そこに電源回路関係のチップが搭載されるデザインとなっているようです。
A first look at the AM5 socket, once again in the form of a 3D-render pic.twitter.com/84T6wUjpQ2
— ExecutableFix (@ExecuFix) July 29, 2021
最大コア数は16コアに据え置き。TDPは最大170Wまで引き上げられる見込み
Zen4 Ryzen Raphaelでは最大16コア据え置き。TDPは最大170Wに
Zen4アーキテクチャーを採用するサーバー向けCPUのEPYC GenoaではZen3アーキテクチャーを採用するEPYC Milanの64コアから最大96コアにコア数が増加する見込みになっています。しかし、コンシューマー向けのRyzenについては今まで通り16コアに据え置かれる見込みとなっています。
— ExecutableFix (@ExecuFix) July 13, 2021
また、TDPに関してはZen3搭載Ryzenシリーズではコンシューマー向けに販売されている製品ではTDPが120Wのみ、OEMなどに向けて販売されているモデルを含めると、65Wと120Wの2つのTDP帯製品が存在しますが、Zen4 RyzenからはTDPが最小は65Wと据え置きになるものの、95W、105W、120Wそして170Wの合計4つのTDP帯製品が登場する見込みとなっています。なお、この170Wモデルに関しては、パフォーマンスに特化した特別なモデルのために存在するようです。
CPUクーラーはAM4と互換性あり？TPD 170Wモデルには280mm以上の水冷クーラーが必須に
Zen4 Ryzenではソケットが変更となりますが、AMDのリーク資料によるとクーラーに関しては既存の純正CPUクーラーが対応製品としてリストアップされるなどしているため、ソケットは変わるものの、高さやマウント形状に関してはAM4と互換性を持つ可能性があります。
一方で、パフォーマンス特化モデルではTDPが170Wになるとの事ですが、この170Wモデルに関しては同じ資料によるとヒートシンクには280mm以上のラジエーターを備えた水冷クーラーが冷却には必要となると記載されています。そのため、Mini-ITXなどコンパクトな高性能PCを組み立てたいというユーザーにとってはハードルが高くなりそうです。
Zen4 RyzenにはGPU内蔵が標準に。ソケットAM5のリーク情報から判明
内蔵GPUが標準搭載になるのではないかと言う情報はAMDのソケットAM5の互換性について記載されたリーク資料にて記載されています。この資料上のOn-Chip Graphicsと言う欄には"1 Dedicated"、つまりOn-Chip Graphics用に専用チップを有する事が記載されています。また、これらはソケットAM5に対応するすべてのFamily/Model Numbersにて同様の事が書かれています。この事から現行のRyzen 5000Gシリーズのようにモバイル版をベースとしたデスクトップ版Ryzenでのみ内蔵GPU搭載となる扱いとは異なります。
また、上に表示されている資料のページには記載がありませんが、資料の原本には “Some OPNs…may not support GFX”、日本語訳で『一部OPNs(モデル)ではGFX（グラフィック）をサポートしません。』とわざわざ一部OPNsでは対応しないと書いてある当たり、GPUを内蔵したモデルが標準になる可能性は高そうです。
企業などでRyzen CPUを採用したデスクトップをあまり見た事があるという方は少ないと思いますが、多くの法人向けPCではGPUを内蔵している事は必須条件とも言え、わざわざdGPUが必要となる従来までのRyzenは大きなディスアドバンテージとなっていました。そこで、AMDではZen4 Ryzenからは内蔵GPUを標準搭載し、法人向け需要も取り込もうとしているのかもしれません。
CPU側はDDR4とDDR5に対応。PCI Expressも5.0まで対応
ソケットAM5に刷新されるZen4 Ryzenですが、これに伴いチップセットも現行の500番台から600番台のモデルが発売されます。この600番台チップセットではIntelが2021年11月に発売したAlder Lake-Sと同じようにメインメモリーにはデュアルチャンネルDDR5が採用される事となっていますが、CPU自体はDDR4にも対応しており、Alder Lake-Sと同じように廉価モデルのためにDDR4にも対応できるようにもなっているようです。
PCI Expressの世代に関しては、Zen4 RyzenのCPU自体はPCIe Gen5.0に対応した設計になっています。ただし、マザーボードのPCH自体はPCIe Gen 4.0までの対応となっておりCPUと直接接続が可能なPCIeレーンだけはPCIe Gen 5.0に対応できるというマザーボードになりそうです。なお、サーバー向け製品であるEPYCやThreadripperなどはマザーボード側もPCIe 5.0に対応できる見込みのようです。
The sacred geometry of chance
The hidden law of a probable outcome
すべてを支配するのは数
I know that the spades are the swords of a soldier
I know that the clubs are weapons of war
I know that diamonds mean money for this art
But that's not the shape of my heart
が、これは私の真意ではない
He may play the jack of diamonds
He may lay the queen of spades
He may conceal a king in his hand
手にはキングを隠し持ち
While the memory of it fades
記憶は薄れていく
Well, those who speak know nothin'
お前たちは何もわかってはいない
And find out to their cost
そして間違いなく勝負に負けるだろう
Like those who curse their luck in too many places
不運ばかりを嘆いている奴のように
ワイはiPhoneに標準装備の表計算アプリのNumbersを利用してる。
のまえに俺の言うライフログっていうのは何時から何時までは増田をしていた、とか簡単にメモすること。
細かく一日の家事とか余暇の使い方を分単位で記録するときもあるし
もっとざっくりとした記録の仕方になるときもあるけど、仕事に関してはかなり正確に記録している。
「今」をワンプッシュで記録できるところ。
セルのフォーマットを日付と時刻にしてやると「今」を押すだけで今の時刻を記録できる。
（EXCELアプリとかはこれが出来ない。最新版はどうなってるか知らんけど。）
このあたりまえのことが意外と出来るアプリが少ないんだよ、だから重宝してる。
Numbersは表計算アプリだから記録したデータの統計とか簡単に求めれるし。
ライフログアプリは専用のものも若干だけど存在するけど表計算アプリのNumbersのほうが使い勝手がいい。
というかNumbersの出来がかなりいいんだよな。
午前9時25分から348分前って何時？とかがセルのフォーマットを期間にしてやると簡単に求められたりとか。
俺にとってはかなり神アプリです。
飛田展男氏の声で、緩急（躁鬱）つけて読んでください。所々、大幅に意訳してます。一人称が僕なのも、カミーユ風ということで……。
---
……伝えたいのは、あなたがたを見てるってことです。
こんなのは、絶対に間違ってるんだ……。僕はね、こんなところに立ってる人間じゃあないんです。本当は海の反対側で学校に戻っているべきなんですよ。それなのにあなたがたは、僕のような若者のところに、希望なんてものを求めてやってくる。よくもそんなこと……！
お前たちが、繰り言を弄して僕の夢や、子ども時代を奪い去ったんだ！ それだけじゃない、僕なんて運が良い方なんだ！ たくさんの人が苦しみ、死にかけて……生態系全体が崩壊しかけてるんだぞ！ 僕たちを絶滅のふちに追い込んでおきながら、それなのに話すのはカネのこと！ 永遠の経済成長だとか、おとぎ話じゃあないんだぞ！ よくも！
これまで三十年以上、科学はこれ以上ないぐらい明瞭だったんだ。必要な政策だって解決策だって、どこにもないんですよ！ それに目を背けたままノコノコとここに来て「十分やっている」だなんて、どうして言えるんだよ！
……僕らの声を聞いて、あなたがたは緊急性を理解したと言ってみせる。悲しいですよ。腹も立ちますよ。でもね、僕にはやっぱり信じられないんだ。だってそうでしょう、もしあなたがたが状況を理解していたとして、それでも何もしないなら、それは悪だ。悪人の言うこと、信じられるわけないでしょうが……！
10年で温室効果ガスの排出を半分にしても、気温上昇を1.5度に抑えられる可能性は5割しかない。それが定説なんですよ。人の手に負えない連鎖反応が起こって、環境が暴走するリスクだってある。
なのにあなたがたは、5割の勝率で十分だというんでしょう。でもね、この数字は、暴走が始まる一線も、変化を加速させるフィードバックループも、大気汚染による隠れ温暖化も考えに入れちゃあいない。公平性だってなければ、正義すらないんだ。なのに、まともに存在すらしない技術で、僕たちの世代がなんとかしてくれると当てにして！ 何千億トンもの二酸化炭素をバラまいてるのは、お前らなんだぞ！
5割の勝率だなんて、受け入れられるわけないんだよ！ 結果を抱えて生きてかなきゃなんないのは、僕たちなんだぞ！
この惑星（ほし）の気温上昇を1.5度に抑える確率を67％にするには、今後のCO2の排出量をトータルで4,200億トン以下にしなくちゃならない。これが、2018年1月1日時点で、IPCCが出したベストの数字です。いまはね、3,500億トン以下なんですよ。
それなのに、今まで通りのやり方と技術で、何とかできるだなんて、どうかしてるだろ？！ 現状の排出レベルじゃあ、あと8年半で限界が来るってわかってるのに！
いまこの数字に基づいた解決策なんて、どこにもありはしない。計画だってない。この数字がね、都合が悪すぎるからなんですよ。お前ら、ありのままを語る勇気だってないじゃないか！
失望させないでほしい。そう思います。でもね、若い人たちは分かり始めているんです。あなたがたの裏切りに。未来の世代の全員の目が、あなたがたを見てるんです。だから、もし判断を誤って、失望させたのなら、僕たちは許しませんよ、絶対に。
この問題から逃げるだなんて、そんなことは絶対にさせない。いま、ここで、やり直さなきゃならないんだ……。世界の覚醒が見えるんです。否応なしに、変化は、来る……。
"My message is that we'll be watching you.
"This is all wrong. I shouldn't be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!
"You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I'm one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!
"For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you're doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.
"You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.
"The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control.
"Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.
"So a 50% risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences.
"To have a 67% chance of staying below a 1.5 degrees global temperature rise – the best odds given by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] – the world had 420 gigatons of CO2 left to emit back on Jan. 1st, 2018. Today that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatons.
"How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just 'business as usual' and some technical solutions? With today's emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.
"There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.
"You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you.
"We will not let you get away with this. Right here, right now is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.
"Thank you."
Macで仕事している人ってHomebrewとかきちんと会社のシステム部門を通してやってるの？
紹介派遣の人がインストールできないと仕事にならないので裁可をお願いします的なのが回ってきてMacはようわからん
業務使いするのに必須ならデフォルトで入っているべきだろと思うのは時代遅れナノカ
上は「自分たちのわからないものを使わないと業務ができないのならMacを使うの止めてしまえ」っていい出すし
下は下で「Macを使いたいです」ってMacを買わせておきながら「ParallelsとWindows10が必要です」「Officeも欲しいです」ってなんだよ
なんならデフォルトでNumbersとKeynoteが入っているので、これからはOfficeも必要ありませんとか稟議書に書いてなかったか？
