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Le Pen vs. Macron: Is France On the Move?

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Three years after Paris’ Notre Dame burned on April 15, 2019, with needless to say still no word on the culprit, France must again, as in 2017 have to choose between flawed immigration patriot Marine Le Pen and Establishment globalist Emmanuel Macron. Their much-anticipated debate is on Wednesday April 20. The Brussels bureaucracy’s sudden allegation against her of campaign finance irregularities has been widely derided

and there are some Establishment media worries about a Brexit/ Trump-style upset [Macron’s struggles with young voters leave an opening for Le Pen by Ivana Saric, Axios, April 18, 2022]

Perhaps Le Pen won’t make it, this time. But, compared to 20 years ago, France is clearly on the move.

There was much to parse in these first-round election results. There is no question that radical immigration patriot Eric Zemmour’s final result, 7% of the vote, was deeply disappointing, at least to me. Le Pen received 23.15 %. There are a number of reasons for this score, not least the “strategic voting” (vote utile in French) of perhaps one third of Le Pen voters, who voted for her to prevent a Leftist candidate from reaching the second round.

But perhaps more significant: the collapse of the mainstream Socialist and conservative (UMP or LR) parties that had governed France for decades until the last-minute invention of Emmanuel Macron. The Socialist and conservative candidates received 55.8% of the vote as recently as 2012. But they reached less than 7% this time.

Bruno Gollnisch, Le Pen père’s former right-hand man, could not hide his schadenfreude:

“seeing the candidates of the two parties, … who have governed France for 60 years and co-managed the coutry’s decline, getting less than 7% of the vote gives me, I admit, some perverse pleasure.”[Twitter, April 15, 2022, my translation]

The Socialist candidate was already a non-entity in the 2017 election. This year, however, the Establishment Conservatives candidate, Valierie Pecresse also received less than 5% of the vote—which crucially means that the government will not reimburse her campaign spending! Pécresse was reduced to pleading for donations to make up the 7 million Euro loss, 5 million Euro of which she had obtained through personal loans.

Thus the two traditional parties of France (= Democrats and Republicans), while still powerful in local and regional politics, are irrelevant so far as national politics are concerned.

Macron rules on the basis of a hegemonic center while all opposition has concentrated around two irreconcilable “extremes”—the Left around Mélenchon; the Right around Le Pen.

Mélenchon’s triumph on the Left is suggestive of the racialization of French politics. in the major cities, white neighborhoods voted Macron while black/Muslim ones voted Mélenchon:

Damien Rieu, a social media maven who has joined Zemmour’s Reconquest party, declared the election had seen “the eruption of the ethnopolitical [and] electoral communitarianism, the first step towards [becoming] Lebanon.”

Indeed, it seems that around 70% of Muslims voted Mélenchon and 40% of his voters were Muslim. Tellingly, 45.8% of prisoners who voted cast for Mélenchon, twice the national average. This is highly suggestive of the ethnic composition of French prisons.

(The Government of the French Republic generally declines, on principle, to collect demographic date—see David Orland’s Connerly’s Racial Privacy Initiative: The Unhappy French Connection published on VDARE in 2003.)

Mélenchon, who had spent his whole career as a die-hard secularist, is now embracing his increasingly colorful electorate. While denouncing the very idea of a “Great Replacement,” he tells his activist supporters—who are still mostly elderly white boomers—about the glories of “creolization” in the mixed-race France of the future. [Qu’est-ce que la créolisation, nouvel étendard de Jean-Luc Mélenchon? by Vincent Bresson, Slate.fr, October 1, 2021] He no longer opposes the wearing of Islamic headscarves by university students, something he used to condemn as a sign of archaic patriarchal culture. His laïcité now basically boils down to a rabid hostility towards Christianity.

But curiously, Le Pen and Mélenchon both did well in France’s majority-black and mixed-race overseas territories (French Guiana and several islands in the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean). This was essentially motivated by a desire for handouts (Le Pen and Zemmour both have voiced strong emotional attachment to these territories as the last vestiges of France as an intercontinental empire) and, significantly. the fact that some of these territories face huge amounts of illegal immigration from Latin America and Africa.

Indeed, there have been amusing cases of local black women protesting against pro-migrant NGOs run by well-thinking white women. NazBol Françafrique when?

In Le Pen’s speech reacting to her qualifying for the second round,, she declared France would have to choose between Macron’s vision of “division, injustice, and disorder” for the benefit of “the few,” and her own vision:

The unity of the French around social justice, protection, guaranteed by the fraternal framework around the millennia-old idea of the nation and of the people

Patriots like me regret that Le Pen has soft-pedaled nationalist themes, especially immigration, to focus on essentially statist protectionist economics. Large swathes of her discourse are scarcely distinguishable from that of a Social-democrat.

But identitarian thinkers like Julien Rochedy [Tweet him]and François Bousquet have conceded that, in purely electoral terms, Le Pen may well have been right to focus on bread and butter issues. Macron is an embattled president whom vast swathes of the electorate loathe for his failure to bring positive change, his authoritarian reaction to the yellow-vest protests, and his totalitarian management of the COVID crisis[Macron declares his Covid strategy is to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated, by Jon Henley, Guardian, January 4, 2022].

While Le Pen’s (relatively) pro-Russian stance has proven embarrassing in light to the general emotional reaction to the war in Ukraine, the spikes in the cost of fuel, energy bills, and inflation in general may strengthen her position in the long run. Remember that the massive Yellow-Vest protests were sparked by a fuel tax hike.

Francois Bousquet, the editor of the high-brow identarian magazine Éléments, sums up Le Pen’s triumph over Zemmour:

While Zemmour knows France, Marine knows the French. And they’re the ones who vote.” [Marine qui rit, Zemmour qui pleure (Marine Laughs, Zemmour Cries), Éléments, April 14, 2022

Significantly, Zemmour’s supporters were more educated, often in white-collar and management positions, and were more motivated. They are concentrated in the prosperous southeast of France, where there are many retirees and a few descendants of the European settlers who fled Algeria. But he even had a few supporters within some of the wealthier neighborhoods of Paris.

Le Pen, however, has her ear attuned to déclassé whites in peripheral France, who have despite themselves adopted a rather atomized way of life, defined indeed by their automobiles, suburban sprawl, and the sparsification of public services (particularly in rural areas).

Bousquet concludes on these atomized lower-class whites: “Do they still form a people? I do not know, but they are our people. We shouldn’t forget it.”

There is now a strange situation in which many activists moved to Zemmour, while Le Pen retains—essentially through her carefully honed TV appearances—appeal to a critical mass of largely depoliticized voters.

I remain skeptical of Le Pen’s ability to win the second round. (But I must acknowledge that some polls have her neck-and-neck with Macron).

The Media-political demonization machine has started going into overdrive. The University of Nantes for example point-blank told its students to vote for Macron, abandoning all pretense of political neutrality[The president of the University of Nantes calls for a vote for Macron, Paudal.com, April 13, 2022]

The Leftist magazine Le Nouvel Observateur published a deranged article declaring that if Le Pen is elected she would become commander-in-chief of France’s nuclear force de frappe and so would be able to “unleash the equivalent of 48,000 Hiroshimas over a large part of the United States, Russia, China, Africa—and Europe.”[Si Marine Le Pen était élue, voici l’arsenal nucléaire qui se trouverait entre ses mains(If Marine Le Pen were elected, here is the nuclear arsenal that would be in her hands) by Vincent Jauvert, April 13, 2022

But while Le Pen has deemphasized identitarian themes, she has by no means disavowed them. She proposes a referendum against immigration, abolishing Birthright Citizenship and family reunification, deporting foreign criminals, and reserving welfare to French citizens (or to foreigners who have been working and paying into the system for at least five years).

Macron by contrast has issued almost 1.3 million foreign visas (an increase from the previous presidential administration, despite the sharp decline during the COVID years).

A Le Pen presidency, whatever its other faults, would at least slowdown the demographic dispossession of the French—rather like the Trump Administration did.

Like Mélenchon, Le Pen’s proposals of protectionism and give-aways are probably economically ill-advised (in my opinion). While Le Pen wants to replace the EU with an “Alliance of European Nations,” it is not clear what this would mean in practice.

There is a significant risk a Le Pen presidency would face Trumpian ineffectiveness—especially given the inevitable sabotage of huge swathes of the Media-Political establishment—and Brexit-type time-wasting. There is a troubling lack of prioritization.

But perhaps a president Le Pen would be able to focus on popular, actually doable actions—which is what Matteo Salvini did, with great effectiveness, during his short stint as Interior Minister of Italy prior to being ousted in a parliamentary coup.

Guillaume Durocher [Tweet him] is a European historian and political writer.

(Republished from VDare by permission of author or representative)
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  1. Miro23 says:

    While Le Pen wants to replace the EU with an “Alliance of European Nations,” it is not clear what this would mean in practice.

    She says the words “European Nations” – the exact things that the EU Globalists want to erase. “European Nations” (with implied nationalism) are a potent barrier to their ideal of a frontier free, multicultural, woke, financialized space run by the WEF/Davos elite in the interests of the WEF/Davos elite – so she should get the vote just for that.

    The French working class know full well that French nationalist leaders are the only people who will protect them – and they urgently need them for their survival.

    •�Agree: Jack Kennedy
  2. Anonymous[295] •�Disclaimer says:

    “Le Pen’s proposals of protectionism …… economically ill advised …”.

    So, you are perfectly happy with the *inevitable* reality of full spectrum Chinese and east Asian full spectrum hegemonic financial, industrial, technical, military, scientific, economic etc etc supremacy and dominance which has been the only tangible result of the past half century’s push towards ‘globalization’?

    It ill behooves me to add, in passing, that the EU has economically – and politically – stagnated for the past half century of globalization. I’m afraid the point of no return has been passed. Long ago.

  3. (…) the wearing of Islamic headscarves —

    shows that the wearers themselves as well as the opponents are ignoramuses, indeed Qur’ân 24, 31 has been translated by Christoph Luxenberg as follows: “Qu’elles s’attachent leur ceinture autour de la taille / that they fix their girdle around the waist”, in “Le voile islamique”, published in Cités, Presses Universitaires de France, Paris 3/2004.

    Knowing that the aforesaid ignoramuses were on the rise (yes, already back then, before 1850), Balzac once wrote that “enfin, quand l’Europe ne sera plus qu’un troupeau d’hommes sans consistance parce qu’elle sera sans chefs, elle sera dévorée par de grossiers conquérants / at last, when Europe will be but a herd of men without consistence because she will be without chiefs, she will be devoured by uncouth conquerors” (in La confidence des Ruggieri).

  4. While a Le Pen presidency is much to be desired, I wonder how she would staff her government? There just aren’t all that many RN supporters who have experience governing, even at the local level. She might find herself forced to rely on persons who do not share her agenda.

    I wonder too if Macron might contest her legitimacy in a close election. She might not have a “majority” if abstentions and blank ballots are taken into account. Macron might seize on that to suggest non-recognition of her as president by the EU, other European governments and the United States. It may sound far-fetched, but the hostility to Marine Le Pen and the RN is deep and bitter among French and European elites.

  5. FREXIT for freedom!!!

    •�Agree: RadicalCenter
  6. Durruti says:

    To be, or not to be!

    A nice informational article by Durocher.

    A vote for Marine Le Pen is a good action. Yes, French Patriots, well armed, well organized, well trained, Restoring the Republic of Charles De Gaulle would be an even better action. But one action is possible in the short term, and the other, unfortunately, not.

    The possible benefits of the successful election of Marine Le Pen to the French Presidency:

    1. A President Marine Le Pen – might free Herve Ryssen, and suspend the fines against Dieudoné & Soral.

    2. She is a great speaker, and might give great speeches.

    3. All those who abandoned her campaign, as she did her father’s, will be unhappy.

    4. The French people will have one more chance to Defend their Country (don’t go there).

    5. Le Pen might act to Free France from the Zio/Rothschild/NATO/United States – Prison.

    6. The French might be more affable to Tourists (a long shot).

    7. Notre Dame might actually be rebuilt (a long shot).

    8. Her government might include Dieudonné as Minister of Culture (a long shot).

    9. Soral might be appointed Ambassador to the USA (a long shot).

    10. Herve Ryssen might be appointed Ambassador to the Entity (a long shot).

    Conclusion:

    Vote for Marine Le Pen! Voting is easier than picking up the gun. Yes, she doesn’t have a chance (of a fair counting of the votes). Annnd, poor Marine Le Pen is being badly beaten around the head and shoulders by the Zionist (er-French) Media. Yes, I have no idea who she really is, or represents. For God sakes! Vote for Marine Le Pen. Then get your shot (of cognac).

    Dr. Peter J. Antonsen – nom de guerre, Durruti

    •�Replies: @frankie p
  7. Macron vs. Le Pen

    is same as Clinton vs. Trump:

    ZOGarbage out,

    ZOGarbage in.

    Now here this, White idiots:

    you cannot vote yourself out of a Jew-engineered genocide.

    •�Disagree: Rich
    •�Replies: @Durruti
  8. Miro23 says:

    And the EU (ZioGlob) are playing dirty in this election the way they usually do:

    https://rmx.news/european-union/the-eu-launches-a-direct-assault-against-marine-le-pens-presidential-bid/

    The EU launches a direct assault against Marine Le Pen’s presidential bid

    In a sign that the European Union has completely abandoned any pretense of respect for the democratic process and the will of a national electorate, OLAF, the EU’s anti-fraud office has accused French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen of embezzlement only days before the final round of the French presidential elections.

    It seems that OLAF has a switch-on/switch-off button controlled by the European Commission, and it is increasingly used in perfect synchrony with the EU’s ongoing political battles against mostly conservative or Euro-skeptic political foes. Yet the current example, undermining the fairness of the French presidential campaign is probably the most brutal and partisan attack on a sovereign country’s democratic process to date.

  9. A123 says: •�Website

    Which groups will turnout for an uninspiring set of choices?

    — I suspect a great many Populists will sit this one out. Le Pen burned bridges in her attempt to shift Leftwards.
    — Macron is also less than compelling to a large portion of France’s potential voters.

    With low votes cast, anything could happen.

    PEACE 😇

    •�Agree: Durruti
  10. Durruti says:
    @Haxo Angmark

    Now here this, White idiots:

    you cannot vote yourself out of a Jew-engineered genocide.

    And knowing that!!!

    You plan to do what????? Your alternative? Actions? Suggestions?

    Or, have you surrendered already? Was it in Berlin?

  11. Rich says:

    If Macron wins they might as well change the name of the country to ‘Germany’s bitch’ and be done with it.

    •�Replies: @René Fries
  12. @Rich

    (…) change the name of the country to ‘Germany’s bitch’

    what are the tribes composing Germany? well, Schwaben, Bayern, Hessen, Thüringer, Sachsen, Franken, Friesen —

    and in France? well, “le Quade, le Vandale, le Sarmate, l’Alain, le Gépide, le Hérule, le Saxon, le Burgonde, l’Alaman” and “les Suèves” and “des Teutons, des Bataves (…) et des Taifales”, according to J.J. Hatt’s Histoire de la Gaule romaine, éditions Payot, Paris 1959, pp. 351 sq – – -all these Germanic tribes having formed around AD 500, an ocean in which a very little number of Gallo-Roman isles still remained, none of these “isles” exceeding a 25% Gallo-Roman percentage.

  13. frankie p says:
    @Durruti

    Any French administration with Soral, Ryssen and Diudonne could only result in real benefits for the common citizens of France. F*** the globalists and the Zionists!

  14. Durruti says:

    Ye olde Red Baiting – Media assassination of Le Pen.

    https://news.yahoo.com/important-french-election-approaches-le-092428142.html

    In the debate, Macron Russia-bates Marine Le Pen, & the Media piles on and Russia-bates Marine Le Pen.
    After the debate, the Media insists she lost.

    [In America, Military Veteran Tulsi Gabbard has been called a Traitor by Draft Dodger, Romney, who has been assisted by the Media.] If you are well known, and resist, you will be punished.

    The French election is not a fair fight, but the effort must be made.

    It is not whether you win or lose that is of note, but how you lose! We the People lose!

    But we never surrender!

  15. Marine Le Pen has blown another Presidential Election, this time by opposing the headscarf – a garment that even infidel women sometimes wear. This is much different from banning the niqab and burka.

    Her impending loss may be a good thing. The whole of Western Europe faces economic difficulties, and France is no exception. Neither Le Pen nor Macron has any chance of fulfilling their economic promises. If Le Pen had won, the failure would have been blamed on her immigration policy.

    Better luck next time.

    •�Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  16. Well, first a little bit of editing :

    radical immigration patriot Eric Zemmour

    You wanted to write : Billionaire propped cartoonish jewish supremacist Eric Zemmour

    There, you stand corrected, no need to thank me.

    Bolloré’s lapdog measly 7% tell me that the french saw through the ruse. For all its flaws they don’t have “l’extrême-droite la plus bête du monde” (yet)

  17. A123 says: •�Website

    The incredibly weak and compromised Le Pen cleared 40%.

    Those numbers suggest Zemmour could have won. The real problem with the current Top-2 run off system is that it creates “controlled opposition”. Votes going to the squishiest candidate does not even require a ‘conspiracy’. Simple human nature from swing voters propelled certain loser Le Pen past the much more credible Zemmour.

    Without a genuine ‘U.S. Style MAGA Primary’, the Populists in France have to voluntarily unite around a single, electable candidate early. That is the only way to avoid certain defeat by terrible candidates, like Le Pen.

    PEACE 😇

  18. Laetizia G says: •�Website

    Hi Mr. Durocher, you quote the magazine Elements of a good level while addressing the general public. Do you know the journal Eurosynergies? which is aimed at people with a high school education and anyone interested in political philosophy, philosophy, history, etc., which publishes articles by thinkers from all over Europe, which is fascinating. Director of publication: Robert Steuckers. http://euro-synergies.hautetfort.com/

    Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

  19. Mr. XYZ says:
    @James N. Kennett

    I dislike Le Pen due to her wanting to fuck over Ukraine. Shame.

  20. François says:

    Honestly, if I were a French citizen, I wouldn’t even vote. Unlike her father Jean-Marie, Marine Le Pen is just another Zionist politician. She fails to name to (((main cause))) of the immigration problem in France which automatically disqualifies her in my book. Of course she’s the lesser of evils as oppose to Maçon, but either way it’s a lose lose situation.

    •�Replies: @NoBodyImportant
  21. acudoc1949 says: •�Website

    We must stop flailing away at the branches and strike at the root of Nose Power!!! The current model of banking and currency is based on the Bank of England model, founded in 1694. Benjamin Franklin stated that the main reason for the American Revolutionary War was the insistence by George III that the American colonies accept Bank of England banknotes, which were issued as promissory notes, rather than use the increasingly successful American fiat script, issued by the colonies in the CORRECT quantity and not bearing debt! We must be prepared for a new monetary system, an honest one, when our present debt-based banking cartel collapses. Kindly read and critique this proposed Constitutional Amendment. But first, a little background…

    From “The Truth in Money Book” by Theodore R. Thorsen and Richard F Warner:

    [MORE]

    QUOTE Someone had to borrow at usury to bring that money [checkbook balances, bills and coins] into existence. The money goes out of existence as the usury and the debt principal are paid back to the bank. These amounts are huge: several billion dollars go out of existence each day. [Actually this money goes into the reserve accounts of the Federal Reserve Banks, out of the hands of the public! This book was first printed in November 1980. The amounts which are withdrawn presently are much larger.] If the money is not replaced with new loans, a shortage occurs. Soon individuals and businesses experience serious cash flow problems. These result in more and more loan applications to banks—the only place where money is being created to replenish the supply” UNQUOTE

    Here is one possible solution—-To Hell with Fractional-Reserve Debt-Based Banking Constitutional Amendment

    (1) Rescind the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and rename existing Federal Reserve notes and check book balances, in all U.S. banking and credit-creating institutions as well as foreign holdings of dollars, on a 1-to-1 basis, as U.S. Treasury Dollars and U.S.Treasury-Denominated bank balances. All currently existing financial contracts of the Federal Reserve Banking System, including United States Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, and Inflation-Protected Securities, remain in effect.

    (2) Henceforward, ex nihilo credit creation by banking and financial institutions in the United States is prohibited. Loans are required to originate from previous savings of U.S. Treasury Dollars and U.S. Treasury-Denominated bank balances from accounts only authorized by account holders for lending purposes. Each loan is held in and paid from a specified, sequestered loan account by the various financial institutions, with interest charges and term limits for each loan to be determined solely by the bank management and the contracting party. Non-cash reserves held in the regional Federal Reserve Banks in accounts of the member institutions of the Federal Reserve System no longer form the basis for credit creation and are extinguished via accounting erasure. Any further payments of principal and interest on currently-existing promissory notes owned by any bank are required to be distributed to holders of savings accounts and checking accounts in that bank in a manner to be determined by each bank, such procedures to be transparent to savings or checking account holders at that bank in terms of amount and frequency of payment. Regional Federal Reserve Banks continue to provide check-clearing operations for the member banks.

    (3) Monetary transactions of the regional Federal Reserve banks or of its member banks with international banks, including the Bank of International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund, can not include ex nihilo credit creation.

    (4) The U.S. Treasury supplies Treasury Dollars as needed to any member bank of the Federal Reserve system to satisfy demands for cash by deposit and savings account holders in excess of cash reserves held by banks at the time of enactment of this amendment.

    (5) Fund the U.S. government and its agencies and projects directly via Treasury Dollars authorized by the Congress in its yearly federal budget. The borrowing of money from the Federal Reserve system of banks or from other institutions or individuals to pay for federal government expenditures is prohibited. All outstanding Treasury Securities are henceforward redeemed on demand via payment with U.S. Treasury Dollars.

    (6) Abolish the Federal Income Tax on individuals, corporations, and business enterprises while maintaining a social security tax on individual incomes. Social security retirement revenues are strictly sequestered in Federal Government Retirement Accounts held by the U.S. Treasury and managed by the Social Security Administration. The Sixteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is hereby rescinded and the Internal Revenue Service disbanded.

    (7) Institute a federal sales tax with a varying yearly tax rate adjusted by the U.S. Congress in session, the sole aim of such adjustments being to maintain a stable or decreasing Consumer Price Index based on data collected by the Federal Government. Any such federal sales taxes taken in by the Federal Government are extinguished from the currency supply to keep the Consumer Price Index stable or decreasing and are not utilized for further funding.

    (8) Article 1, Section 8, Clause 1 of the U.S. Constitution is amended to read as follows: The Congress shall have Power to collect customs duties on imports and exports, uniformly applied throughout the United States, and to provide for the Defence and general Welfare of the United States.

    (9) Article 1, Section 8, Clause 2 of the U. S. Constitution is rescinded.

    (10) The adoption of this amendment does not prohibit the use by the citizens of the United States of any alternative currencies they should choose to use in their private or commercial transactions, provided both parties to the transaction agree to the medium of exchange.

  22. @François

    So basically she’s a female Donald Trump only I can’t find any photos of her wearing a small hat, and acting like a cock sucker like you see with Trump everywhere, especially now seeing how desperate he is to get reelected over Harris.

  23. Anonymous[354] •�Disclaimer says:

    While Le Pen wants to replace the EU with an “Alliance of European Nations,” it is not clear what this would mean in practice.

    When the modern world changes, it spookily changes quickly and uniformly. Examples: Communism was nothing before the USSR became communist, the US destroying the remnant European Empires in the Suez Crisis, the Jewish Coalition’s offensive of the 1960s, the accession of Obama as Dictator in Chief (“phone and pen” speech) and the disintegration of the pre-Obama US.

    The US suzerainty is disintegrating along with US expeditionary combat power. Trump cannot win the Ukraine/Russian Federation war, cannot stabilize the Middle East/Israel war, cannot rebuild American industry, or for that matter the European dependence on imported, very distant external resources. Trump will be able to salvage something, but the Northeast and possibly the Left Coast might secede, and the precedent and citizen action required to deport the 10 million or so ({1,2}*1E6) illegal immigrants will change the nature of whatever parts of the US implement deportation. The end of “birthright citizenship” will change it more, especially if it is retroactive (as the Supreme Court decision might make it).

    With the failure of US suzerainty is the failure of the suzerain governments, such as those of the EU. Right now, US sourced additional resources are keeping Europe awash, just barely floating. Federal Republic of Germany (FRG)[1] industries are building new plants outside of Europe, because “awash” is a synonym for “failure” in the FRG context.

    So: realignment is on the way.
    * EU member states federate with the Russian Federation (RF) after Trump stabilizes the rump US, that being their only reliable source of relatively cheap resources.
    * The People’s Republic of China (PRC) drops its alliance with RF and concentrates on building a local sphere of influence, once centered on coal and oil. PRC might try for Australia as a suzerainty client, and with the Left Coast and Northeast reduced to an imitation Cuba, the Texas/Florida section might not have enough of a Navy to influence PRC.
    * Africa makes out very badly, as does the Middle East. Actions such as the Houthis closing the Suez Canal make EU/RF and PRC efforts to extract resources from Africa into money losers. Think of Haiti as an example.
    * The United Kingdom (UK) breaks up, and England has a revolution. So does Ireland, and so does Scotland. No more UK [2] from lack of interest.
    * Latin America fragments, part becoming an indigestible mess (as are Haiti, Cuba and Venezuela now) and part trying to follow Argentina’s/Trump’s policy of reducing graft by reducing government size and authority.

    All of this could be done without resort to nuclear weapons, unless Ukraine actually uses radioisotope dusting from ground reactor rods (~30 year half life) against RF, in which case you might expect destruction of the Ukraine using RF tactical nuclear weapons strikes to destroy Ukraine’s command & control network. Should that happen, the above changes might occur very rapidly indeed. Or, we might all die.

    ********************************************************************
    1] Does anybody else find it strange that the Federal Republic of Germany has the English acronym FRoG? Or that Ukraine would have the acronym Uk, and the United Kingdom the acronym UK? Big UK, smaller Uk, both uk. Who choses these names, anyway? Porsche’s chronically undermanned PR (Puerto Rico) department?
    2] Although the National Lampoon‘s “prediction” of Cornwall declaring war on England hardly seems likely. Wales, maybe, with the English invading — again.

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