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The SMO will keep rollin’ on. And as the Europeans want it, to the last Ukrainian.

Let’s start with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Road to Damascus moment:

“Frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers, the United States helping Ukraine and Russia, and it needs to come to an endâ€.

Now that’s a howler. Jeffrey Sachs to the rescue. Of course, the correct formulation would be “proxy war launched by the United Statesâ€. But still: Hallelujah! Such illumination – by proxy – from Heavens Above could never had hit the previous American Secretary of Genocide.

Now cut to panic. Total European panic.

Le Petit Roi, as popular in France as nighttime mosquitoes in a five-star beach resort, has declared that peace in Europe is only possible with a “tamed†Russia – and that Russia is a direct threat to France and Europe.

On Ukraine, he pontificated that peace simply cannot take place under Russian terms or via the – inevitable – Ukrainian surrender.

Le breathless Petit Roi literally went nuclear. He stressed that France possesses a nuclear deterrent – and offered it to the rest of Europe, while insisting that Europe’s future should not be dictated by Moscow or Washington.

Le Petit Roi napoleonically all but declared war on Russia. Well, the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of France would gladly agree that mini-Napoleon should be dispatched to the battlefields in the black soil of Novorossiya right away – where he would surrender in less than 5 minutes, waving a rainbow flag, as he realizes he’s about to be turned into an instant steak tartare.

Now couple this Moliere farce with the fate of the much larger, fatter, pan-European New Model Woke Army regimented by the Fuhrerin SS von der Lugen out of Brussels, allegedly to be financed to the tune of 800 billion euros – money that no one has, and would have to be loaned then repaid with sky-high extorsion interest rates to the usual international financial system vultures.

SS von der Lugen insists Europe is in danger, so the solution is a massive expansion of the military-industrial complex – in practice, buying more overpriced American weapons – and “rearmamentâ€.

Talk about Gotterdammerung on crack.

Were the New Model Woke Army ever come to light, surrender would also be a matter of less than 5 minutes – brandishing rainbow flags – as its woke warriors would face the dire prospect of being Oreshniked to a pile of charcoal grilled burgers.

Add to it the Return of the Nord Stream Saga – with a new plot twist. Sy Hersh conclusively proved that the Nord Streams were bombed under orders of the previous Crash Test Dummy regime in Washington. Now Nord Stream 2, at least, could be back in business via a not-so-secret U.S.-Russia deal involving Gazprom and American oligarchs.

All that while fanatics in Berlin assure right and left they want to explore every possible way to prevent (italics mine) the Nord Stream system from being repaired – because after all no one, especially the new BlackRock chancellor, can deviate from the official policy of destroying the German economy by all means necessary.

Compounding the Kafkaesque scenario, the Prime Minister of Denmark – which is on the brink of losing Greenland “one way or another†to Trump 2.0 – immortalized the words, “peace in Ukraine will be more dangerous than war.†The Polish Prime Minister did not miss a beat, adding that “Europe is stronger than Russia and capable of winning in any military, financial, or economic confrontation.†Europe is in such a “winning†streak now – as the record shows.

All this discombobulated Tower of Babel proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that Europe is geopolitically – and geoeconomically – dead and buried. No Teutonic Gods – complete with fat lady singin’ – will be able to resurrect it.

Flirting with a one-way ticket back to the Stone Age

The notion that Europe is able to pose a military threat to Russia does not even qualify as trashy propaganda for sub-zero IQs. It would take at least a decade to re-militarize Germany as its economy is moribund, serially stabbed by unmanageable energy costs. Russia for its part is protected from a possible nuclear attack by Le Petit Roi’s puny “umbrella†arsenal by the most sophisticated missile defenses in the world.

The Aegis defensive missiles in Poland are relatively worthless – even if their prime danger to Russia remains that the system can be converted to handle offensive missiles. As a whole, the Aegis, Patriot, THAAD-PAC-3, SBIR-HIGH Ground Based Infrared Systems are all relatively useless.

Other than the U.S., NATO simply has no military worth. And Washington under Trump 2.0 simply will not be involved in the next European War.

The U.S. has satellite systems for targeting but no one else in NATO has them. With the U.S. pulling out, and in the event of a hypothetical von der Lugen-led New Woke Army attack against Russia, Russian missiles can knock out all European ports, airports and manufacturing and energy systems in a day max – instantly returning Europe to the stone age.

This applies to England, France, Germany, not to mention assorted chihuahuas: all of NATO. Russia can knock out all British power systems with Zircons launched from a conventional submarine. Stone Age, here we come. Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be intercepted.

Meanwhile, President Putin insists on talking sense to lunatics. At the Collegia of the FSB on February 27, he noted how, “some Western elites are still determined to maintain instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt and compromise the dialogue [with the U.S.] that has begun. We see this. We need to take this into account and use all the possibilities of diplomacy and special services to disrupt such attempts.â€

As Andrei Martyanov has noted, superpowers have “only two options in the 21st century: either start WWIII which will end with nuclear exchange or find a modus vivendi.†That’s a conversation for adults that automatically excludes the European hospice and the childish tantrums of the cracked actor in Kiev.

The cracked actor never had any (italics mine) cards. He now cuts a pathetic figure, doing somersaults to cling to power, propped by (former) collective West money, weapons and massive propaganda. Now the 404 nation he “created†is losing not only the war but the P.R. war as well.

The former adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office, Oleksiy Arestovych, as slimy as they come, but always with his pulse on reliable info, is convinced that the Ukrainian Army, blind and cross-eyed, can hold out at best for another one and a half to two months without all those American goodies. Without intel data, Kiev’s forces cannot prepare strikes against the Russian federation or conduct reconnaissance and cyber ops.

Country 404 as a whole is now entering Walking Dead territory. Europe, with or without its SS von der Lugen Invincible Armada, does not have the industrial capacity, the financial might, and the military capability to stop the debacle. Russia has already stated that any European “peacekeeping†troops will immediately become legitimate targets.

The spectacular failure of Project Ukraine is a sight to behold. It’s no wonder the current, tawdry, ghastly political “elites†are in total panic. Without Project Ukraine, and without the Mafia protection of His Master’s Voice, they are just, geopolitically, an irrelevant, post-colonial small peninsula on the western borders of fast-integrating Eurasia.

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The Empire of Chaos will not take the competition lightly. The Middle Kingdom is unfazed – and ready to rock’n roll.

When President Xi Jinping hosted a recent – rare – meeting with an array of Chinese tech superstars, including a “rehabilitated†Jack Ma, Alibaba’s founder, he urged them to “show their talentâ€, code for going for broke in the tech war with the U.S.

It was no wonder that young Liang Wenfeng, founder of AI sensation DeepSeek, was among the guests.

DeepSeek threw not only Silicon Valley but the whole somewhat paranoid U.S. national security ecosystem completely off balance. Yet Beijing’s emphasis is not subversion, but a sound drive towards building an AI system totally independent from U.S. monopolistic pressure and Nvidia products. Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent will likely align their infrastructure with DeepSeek.

This process is perfectly synchronized with the Made in China 2025 project, which has already propelled China to the leadership position in several sectors – from electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels to smart grids and advanced manufacturing. The final breakthroughs will be on top semiconductors and aerospace.

It’s now common knowledge that DeepSeek’s development was not a product of Silicon Valley labs showered with billions of dollars of research funds. Liang Wenfeng himself revealed it: “I won’t lie, our AI was created on the basis of Soviet developments – the OGAS system of Academician Glushkov.â€

The wonders of History: a Soviet marvel auctioned off for a pittance, $15,000 in 1995 possibly because it was considered worthless, is now the backbone of China’s new digital revolution.

Physics heavyweight Quantum Bird, formerly with the CERN in Geneva, is adamant: “The Americans lost the plot. It’s all about models employing less computing power and less data. Nvidia high-performance GPUs costing $40,000 consume too much energy. Then there’s financial speculation. Raspberry Pi [a small single-board computer], the size of a credit card and with a simple processor, costing $50 for students, they may run DeepSeek, consuming less energy than a cellphone.â€

And that’s just the beginning, Quantum Bird adds: “When Russia and China come up with their first lithographic machine… It was Silicon Valley that pushed the world to this.â€

Russia-China scientists have already accelerated scientific computing on conventional Nvidia graphics cards by 800 times, creating a new algorithm using reverse engineering.

That was pulled off by a joint group of scientists from MSU-PPI University in Shenzhen (MSU-BIT University), established in 2014 by Lomonosov Moscow State University and Beijing Polytechnic Institute.

In parallel, researchers using Made in China GPUs have already boosted 10 times their performance over U.S. supercomputers relying on Nvidia hardware. U.S. tech sanctions? Who cares?

Counterpunching Sanctionmania

Chinese scientists are not intimidated by any challenges. On hardware, production of advanced GPUs like the A100 and H100 is a foreign monopoly. On software, Nvidia has restricted its CUDA software ecosystem from running on third-party hardware; that’s a serious problem for those working on independent algorithms.

These may not be insurmountable problems when a rolling wave of Chinese scientists is coming back home to China mostly from the U.S..

Take Tsinghua University chip superstar Sun Nan. Tsinghua’s social media recently revealed that Sun Nan came back in 2020 after many years in the U.S. to “train chip professionals for China and solving the manufacturing problems of mid- and high-end chip technologyâ€.

The key sectors, once again, are semiconductors and quantum computing. Nothing Trump 2.0 will throw at China in terms of “tech containment†will alter the Chinese drive.

Sun Nan and his team have already come up with high-performance circuit design tech they integrated into more than 50 chips used in the Chinese power grid, high-speed rail, industrial measurement and control, instrumentation and electric vehicles.

Countering the American drive to derail China’s development in AI and chipmaking equipment, interconnected Sun Tzu maneuvers paint the picture of a Chinese transformation of current supply chains, fomenting a tech crisis in the West itself. That is a key reason for Trump’s obsession with Greenland and Ukraine’s rare earth potential.

Sanctionmania has been going on since 2017, when Trump started to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. The Cadaver in the White House administration then slapped a 100% tax on Chinese EVs, and dozens of export controls on China, via coercion of its own “allies†such as Holland’s ASML and South Korea’s Hynix and Samsung.

Trump 2.0 will come up with a renewed charge of the heavy brigade quite soon.

By 2018, China was entirely dependent on Western tech. That was a time when telecom towers came from Ericsson, GPUs and chips for neural networks from Nvidia, and cars from the European giants.

Now it’s a completely different ball game: a blowback game.

Huawei leads in global telecom equipment. BYD is the world’s top producer of electric vehicles – ahead of Tesla since last year. Huawei is ahead of Google in smartphone processor shipments, also since last year. Xiaomi will launch its own smartphone processor this year.

Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip is already just 5% behind Nvidia’s AI products – and 70% cheaper. Huawei is vertically integrated with its own chip design and manufacturing supply chain – offering mobile operating systems (Harmony OS NEXT), electric vehicles, streaming services, and autonomous driving.

How to “directly benefit societyâ€

Apart from DeepSeek, ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and 01.ai have all developed their own sophisticated LLM models.

China not only already leads in industrial AI applications from robotics and drones to autonomous driving; it is also metastasizing its industrial, technological and economic breakthroughs into military power.

Example: the recently launched world’s first 6th generation fighter prototypes – not only one but two, simultaneously; the world’s first drone-carrier; the first hypersonic stealth unmanned airplanes for strike and reconnaissance; the first stealth unmanned warship; and the most powerful long-range air defence systems.

China is advancing at breakneck speed in directed energy weapons, military 5G, atomic timing, and space warfare systems.

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For those who keep track of the slings and arrows crossing the broader geopolitical chessboard non-stop, it’s an immensely powerful – and humbling – experience to one day be contemplating the devastated Avdeyevka, in the heart of the war in Donbass, and a week later struggling to understand the devastation inflicted on villages in southern Lebanon.

It’s all about the transcending power of Resistance – uniting Orthodox Christianity in the black soil of Novorossiya to political Shi’ism in the Eastern Mediterranean.

It’s this close-up, in microcosm, of the tortuous, bloody, pitiless ways of the Angel of History – to remember Walter Benjamin’s searing metaphor – that really illuminate the always shape-shifting Big Picture, and help us to better frame complex historical processes on the move.

We are now, geopolitically, under the volcano. And one of the key questions ahead that may allow us to better find a way out is how the top BRICS nations will be reacting to the seemingly immovable Forever Wars ethos.

So let’s keep our feet on the ground. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has just gone through an intriguing Astana process loop. First he was in Turkiye – the new hegemon in Syria, at least in thesis. He met Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan – the former head of Turkish intel – and President Erdogan.

Even though Turkiye will hardly dare to become a BRICS partner – after it was officially invited at the Kazan summit last year – Ankara simply cannot afford to antagonize Russia, mostly for geoeconomic reasons.

Then Lavrov went to Iran – following up on the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation signed on January 17 in Moscow.

Lavrov and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed not only the proverbial mutually beneficial trade and economic cooperation agenda – especially on energy and transportation – but also the wider geopolitical chessboard, including ultra-sensitive nodes such as Syria, Yemen, the Persian Gulf, the Caspian, the South Caucasus and Afghanistan, as well as what could happen next for the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal.

Yet the absolutely key imperative remains the Forever Wars chapter in Ukraine – whose resolution (or not) will deeply affect geopolitics for the rest of the century.

Three years ago, at the start of the SMO, President Putin qualified a series of objectives. NATO responded by seeking to up the ante.

Examples. Let’s start with a security treaty imposing a demilitarized space on Russia’s western borders, and the return of NATO to its limits circa 1997. NATO responded by expanding in Scandinavia – and now the Baltic chihuahuas, supported by Finland, dream of turning the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake.

While the Lugansk National Republic has been 100% liberated, Donetsk stands at best at 75%. Kherson was 100% liberated in the summer of 2022, but then there was a retreat; it now stands at 75%. Same with Zaporizhia.

Ukraine has not been fully demilitarized yet – although the prospects are somewhat encouraging – or denazified (that will be a decade-long process, at least).

Ukraine as a non-NATO neutral nation remains a real red line to Moscow ahead of upcoming negotiations with Trump 2.0. Same with the acceptance by Kiev of Crimea and the four regions as Russian and the removal of all sanctions against Russia: Washington may remove quite a few, but the vassal EU will keep them all.

Not to mention it’s still a long and winding road – to put it mildly – for Moscow to eventually de-enclave Transnistria, which would require to establish a transport corridor through the Kharkov-Transnistria axis as well as Odessa – a Russian city – and securitizing the whole Black Sea littoral. Control of the Black Sea was the prime NATO obsession since before Maidan in 2014.

Walk on the Wild – Kafkaesque – Side

When we follow the money regarding the upcoming US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, it’s clear that what matters for Trump 2.0 is to reestablish the position of American companies in Russia, all the way to buying Russian commodities – as suggested by Putin himself.

So geoconomics rule – again, bringing us all back to 2013 and the fateful free market agreement between the EU and Kiev.

Trump 2.0 is building the narrative that European troops – not directly NATO-linked – will be deployed in Kiev after the end of the war. That would fit into a soft power operation of convincing public opinion about NATO’s annexation of rump Ukraine.

Trump 2.0, meanwhile, is actively transferring to the collapsing EU the role of 100% globalist supporter of Kiev. Follow the money: this means the EU has to pay up. For everything – while the US gleefully exploits what remains of Ukraine’s resources.

In parallel, in this Kafkaesque universe, Brussels keeps piling up sanctions on Russia while removing sanctions on Syria on the energy and transportation fronts because Damascus, after all, is now ruled by jihadists: “our†jihadists.

Compounding the circus, clueless EU mutts such as the next BlackRock German chancellor now openly admit, regretfully, that Maidan, from the start, was in fact aimed against Brussels. The American goal – way before the toxic distribution of Nuland’s cookies – was to sever the EU from Russia and destroy it as a technological competitor. Mission accomplished.

Of course, in such a Kafkaesque domain, none of the above is enough to change the EU narrative. Brussels wants to allocate yet another 20 to 40 billion euros (which they don’t have) and an “unimaginable†amount of (American) weapons to Kiev, as stated by Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

Follow the Money – and the Shadow Play

Back on the Ukraine front, Putin has actually suggested that Zaluzhny might replace the current cracked actor in a sweaty sweatshirt. The MI6 is undoubtedly currently preparing Zaluzhny in London exactly for such a role.

As for military budget cuts, Putin also accepts Trump’s idea of dividing them by half (China politely disagrees). Were that to happen, Russia’s budget would roughly be back to what it was before the SMO, while the Americans would have to cut off $400 billion. Elon Musk’s DOGE will be thrilled; the Deep State will fight it to death.

For all the intertwined shadow play that is taking place on all fronts, invisible to public opinion, there is an undercurrent of skeptical dissent in Moscow according to which after three years of a narrative insisting the Ukraine war was a US war on Russia (certainly by the globalist Democrat axis), plus the Ukrainian biolabs, the tsunami of sanctions, the Nord Stream bombings, Moscow is now willing to re-start economic cooperation with Washington from scratch.

Of course it’s not so simple. But there are indeed fears that a possible “peace†deal may turn out to be yet another American “follow the money†win.

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•ï¿½Category: Foreign Policy, History •ï¿½Tags: Bri, BRICs, China, Donald Trump, Iran, NATO, Russia, Ukraine�

No one ever lost money betting on the batshit crazy “policies†of the ferociously yapping Baltic chihuahuas.

No one ever lost money betting on the batshit crazy “policies†of the ferociously yapping Baltic chihuahuas. Their latest power play of sorts is a drive to turn the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake.

The notion that a bunch of Russophobic sub-entities have what it takes to expel the Russian superpower from the Baltic Sea and pose a threat to St. Petersburg does not even qualify as cartoonish. Yet that is indeed part and parcel of NATO’s re-configured obsessions, as their warmongering “vanguard†has been relocated to a London-Warsaw-Baltic chihuahuas-Ukraine axis.

What kind of black hole rump “Ukraine†will turn out to be after the end of the war – which may not even happen in 2025 – remains to be seen. What’s certain is that in the case of a Ukraine exit – whatever the modalities – enter Romania.

The whole electoral farce in Romania – complete with the demonization of election front-runner Calin Georgescu – revolves around the upgrading of the Mihail Kogalniceanu base, which will become the largest NATO military base in Europe.

So, once again, this is all about the Black Sea. NATO wreaking havoc in the Black Sea carries way more savory prospects than NATO via chihuahuas monopolizing the Baltic Sea.

Ilya Fabrichnikov, a member of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, has published a remarkable essay essentially focusing on the Black Sea (this is a short version on the Kommersant daily).

Fabrichnikov convincingly argues that from an European – UE/NATO – angle, what really mattered in Ukraine was “to move its borders, along with its military, political and economic infrastructure, close to Russia’s, to put under full control the strategic Black Sea trade corridor – which easily stretches further north along the Odessa-Gdansk route – in order to more conveniently and quickly explore the economic spaces of Asia and North Africa, and to begin dictating its terms to Russian supplies of oil, gas and other resources needed by the European economy.â€

As this focused power play instrumentalizing Ukraine is unravelling in real time, a replacement is needed – even as warmongering Eurocrats keep peddling their Orwellian “peace is war†dementia non-stop, complete with a non-stop tsunami of sanctions and renewed promises of avalanches of weapons to Kiev.

This is a classic Brussels vassals affair – even as the toxic Medusa von der Lugen as head of the EC and Rutti-Frutti as the new head of NATO were essentially appointed by Washington and London. Collectively, Europe has pumped way more military-political funds into black hole Ukraine than the Americans.

The reason is simple. For Europe there’s no Plan B apart from that mirific “strategic defeat†of Russia.

The EU/NATO Black Sea power play would make it even more imperative for Russia to connect with Transnistria. The only one who can answer whether this is part of the current planning is of course President Putin.

Neo-nazis go pipeline bombing

Russian intel is very much aware that the Europeans have to some extent already carved up their own areas in Ukraine – from ports to mines. Not surprisingly the Brits, via MI6, are ahead of the “continentalsâ€, mostly Germany.

All that intertwines with the extremely murky weapons-for-metals deal clinched by Trump 2.0 with the totally illegitimate sweatshirt actor-turned-gangster in Kiev. The only thing that matters for Trump is to get U.S. money back – whether the total bill is $500 billion or less (actually, much less).

Into this kabuki steps in the real power in Kiev after the proclamation of martial law: the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine. The unelected, actually illegal actor is not taking any major decisions for some time now. These are issued by the former head of the foreign secret service, Oleksandr Lytvynenko.

It was the council that on February 17 ordered the bombing of the crucial pipeline owned by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) linking Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk, exporting loads of Kazakh and Russian oil.

Crucially, CPC shareholders included Italy’s ENI (2%); the Caspian Pipeline Co., which is a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil (7.5%); and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium Co., a subsidiary of Chevron (15%).

Well, that’s not very bright; the “integral nationalistsâ€, code for neo-nazis in Kiev decided to bomb a partially owned American asset. Not only there will be blowback by Trump 2.0; it is already on.

On the equally murky rare earths front, Putin’s recent interview to Channel One seems to have thrown everyone off balance. Russia, he said, has way more rare earths than Ukraine and is “ready to work with our foreign partners, including the U.S.†to develop these deposits. That’s classic Sun Tzu Putin: the Americans won’t have rare earths to exploit in the future rump Ukraine – because they don’t exist. But they can be partners with Russia in Novorossiya.

All of the above of course would presuppose a solid U.S.-Russia negotiation on Ukraine. And yet Team Trump 2.0 still does not seem to grasp the real Russian red lines:

1. No temporary ceasefire “along the front lineâ€.

2. No trading of new territories acquired in the battlefield.

3. No NATO or European “peacekeepers†in the western borders of Russia.

Putin discombobulating Trump

As it stands, Washington and Moscow remain divided by an abyss.

Mr. Disco Inferno simply cannot make serious concessions – or de facto recognize the strategic defeat of the Empire of Chaos. Because that would seal the Definitive End of Unilateral Hegemony.

Putin for his part simply will not give away the hard-won victories on the battlefield. Russian public opinion expects nothing less. After all Russia holds all the cards leading to a possible negotiation.

The EU/NATO will never admit their own, self-inflicted strategic defeat; hence those Baltic/Black Sea dreams, which carry the extra self-inflicted fantasy of disrupting China’s New Silk Roads as much as “isolating†Russia.

Putin is actually performing virtual somersaults to instill some common sense. In his Mr. Disco Inferno he noted how, on U.S.-Russia relations, “t his first step should focus on increasing the level of trust between the two countries. This is exactly what we have been doing in Riyadh, and this is what our next high-level contacts will be devoted to. Without this, it is impossible to solve any issue, including one as complex and acute as the Ukrainian crisis.â€

Trust is far from being re-established, especially vis a vis a Lavrov-defined “non-agreement capable†Empire of Chaos with its global credibility in tatters. Add to it bombast after bombast manufactured to control the news cycle 24/7: the preferred Trump 2.0 modus operandi. None of it leads to that prime diplomatic mantra: “confidence buildingâ€.

And it will get even murkier – and way more dangerous – if Russian public opinion is confronted with the fact that after 11 years fighting a vicious proxy war with the Empire of Chaos, they may become partners in strategic industry sectors that Putin himself defined as essential to Russia’s national security.

Just like that. Or that may be just Putin discombobulating Trump with some unforeseen Sun Tzu gambit.

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•ï¿½Category: Foreign Policy, History •ï¿½Tags: Baltics, EU, NATO, Russia, Ukraine�

Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral in Beirut became a powerful testament to the enduring spirit of resistance, as millions gathered to honor his memory amidst the wreckage left by the Israeli aggression in south Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Despite the destruction and constant threats, the resolute defiance of the people made it clear: the resistance remains steadfast.

BEIRUT – It’s about 1:30 pm on Sunday, 23 February. Inside Beirut’s vast Sports City Stadium, at least 100,000 people clad in black and draped in yellow resistance flags pay their respects as the caskets of the late Hezbollah secretary-generals Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine begin to make a slow turn around the arena.

A photo of Beirut’s Sports City Stadium during Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine’s funeral ceremony.

Suddenly a triangular formation of Israeli F-15 and F-35 fighter jets pierce the skies, buzzing the stadium as low as aeronautically possible. In any other nation, on such a somber occasion, this would have been an aerial tribute for the ceremony taking place on the ground.

But this is Lebanon – a nation under pressure by the usual suspects, whose national army is prohibited from purchasing high-tech jet fighters and any meaningful air defenses. So the Israeli aerial show was, predictably, yet another provocation – one which, incidentally, instantly turned against the perpetrators.

The whole stadium – plus the more than a million Lebanese congregating around it – outroared the agent provocateurs, in a cacophony of insults and deprecatory remarks.

Mockery prevailed, rather than rage. What are you gonna do? Bomb all of us at the same time – as you did with Sayyed Nasrallah on 27 September 2024? We’re here, and we’re ready. Bring it on, cowards.

“Death to Israel,†they chanted, a sea of fists pumping the air. “Labayka ya Nasrallah†(“at your service, oh Nasrallahâ€), they roared in unison.

The handlers obviously did not get the message, because the pathetic Hasbara air show got a replay less than an hour later, met with even louder cries of derision and defiance.

Incidentally, Lebanese engineers confirm that when the Israeli Air Force dropped dozens of synchronized bombs on Hezbollah’s underground command HQ in Dahiye, the southern Beirut suburb, to assassinate the resistance leader, this could only have been accomplished with US high-tech intel/satellite know-how.

The gathered human intel that facilitated this massive hit could only have been collected by boots on the ground.

Israeli intel may boast of – potentially – infiltrating some nodes of Hezbollah’s nearly iron-clad internal discipline as well as possessing all the American high-tech gear it needs to stage everything from childish provocations to Hell from Above. But when it comes to the nitty gritty – actual battle – the Israeli occupation army is actually a bunch of wimps.

Masters of Destruction

And that brings us to the senseless devastation inflicted by Israel on south Lebanon with its failed “invasion.†Occupation troops tried desperately for 66 days to penetrate deep into the south, but were unable to progress more than a few kilometers across the border, before immediately retreating back to their safe zones.

This daily pattern of loss infuriated Israeli leaders, who made up for this deficiency by launching disproportionate and indiscriminate air attacks across Lebanon. The numbers vary, but at least 4,800 Lebanese were killed in battles and missile attacks across the south, the majority civilians.

With no tangible gains and massive Israeli troop demoralization on the Lebanese border, Tel Aviv literally begged Washington to strike a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah.

That inevitably opened the terrain for the true and tested specialty of a cowardly army: Revenge.

Nothing prepares anyone to witness the remains of the insane destruction perpetrated by the Israelis in selected south Lebanon latitudes – from Maroun al-Ras to Odaisseh – most of this carnage wreaked after the ceasefire agreement was struck.

Maroun al-Ras is on the top of a hill, strategically overlooking Palestine in the deep background. It’s now a classic case of how Israel totally destroys a village in order not to save it.

Maroun al-Ras, part of the union of municipalities of Qalaa, harbored roughly 600 residential units, with around 2,500 to 3,000 residents. During the ceasefire, the Israelis – who lacked the competence to occupy it during the war – came back and destroyed everything, from booby-trapping homes to bulldozing roads and uprooting trees.

Walking around the wasteland of Maroun al-Ras is the epitome of Desolation Row: a sort of microcosm of Gaza, equally unlivable. Yet the resistance is everywhere – from Hezbollah flags and countless pictures of local martyrs duly honored to the first bulldozers starting to remove piles of detritus.

A photo showing the destruction in south Lebanon’s Maroun al-Ras.

Odaisseh, smack at the Palestine border, is an equally horrifying case. Once again, the Israeli army failed to capture the town after two months of fierce fighting with Hezbollah. Once again, the ceasefire was used for a Revenge Operation. Odaisseh, today, stands literally razed to the ground.

In all these cases, there was absolutely not a single peep from NATOstan media and not a single forceful condemnation, not to mention action, by the United Nations.

Unlike Maroun al-Ras, where you see occupied Palestine from afar, at the top of the hill (in the foreground, it’s actually stolen Lebanese land), the limits of Odaisseh are right in front of an occupying/invading power checkpoint. A group of Israeli occupiers pointed their guns at us during our visit. But the most significant bunch were those who peered behind a wall in fear.

A photo showing the destruction in south Lebanon’s Odaisseh.

Tel Aviv, predictably, continues to violate the ceasefire it begged for: its troops remain as invaders in five hilltop positions in south Lebanon, and its air force persists in conducting air strikes across the country.

Seen as pieces in a mosaic, the aerial provocation on Sunday, coupled with the senseless destruction of villages in south Lebanon, depict what, at best, should be construed as a Revenge Killing Machine posing as a nation-state.

Yet the resistance, now embodied by the memory and example of Sayyed Nasrallah, simply will not be intimidated. It’s no accident that he is and will continue to be revered all across the Arab world, the lands of Islam, and the Global Majority.

So what if the president and premier of Lebanon did not attend the funeral ceremony on Sunday? These are mere puppets. What matters is what was sealed by this extraordinarily moving funeral ceremony: “We are the covenant.†The resistance’s rallying cry simply won’t be erased.

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This was never meant to be Yalta. Although Yalta 2.0 may eventually happen.

This was never meant to be Yalta. Although Yalta 2.0 may eventually happen. On the Victory Day parade in Moscow next May 9, celebrating 80 years of the end of the Great Patriotic War and the defeat of Nazi Germany, Putin as the host and Xi Jinping as a top guest will be in town. So might be Donald Trump. Why not have them all board a flight to Crimea and stage a Yalta 2.0 in – where else – Yalta?

“Sweet dreams are made of thisâ€, to quote pop metaphysicians Eurythmics. Meanwhile, we didn’t have Yalta, not even Reykjavik; we had a long 4.5 hours in the royal palace of Ed-Diriyah in the Wadi Hanifa valley. Russia and the U.S. finally sat down to discuss as adults – for the first time in three years.

A delightful measure of excitement was duly provided – all related to the parties being involved in “work on normalizing diplomatic relationsâ€. Until three months ago – under the Cadaver In The White House administration and his Secretary of Genocide – that possibility was as remote as a meteorite crashing on Earth (that will happen, but in a distant future).

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio performed the super-human feat of at least not crashing in front of the Mighty Lavrov – the top diplomat on the planet. Lavrov and Rubio agreed to create a consultation mechanism to eliminate “irritants†(American terminology) in U.S.-Russia relations, and to cooperate on “issues of common geopolitical interestâ€, as per the State Department. BRICS might not be one of them.

Eliminating “irritants†can be easily interpreted as code for Trump 2.0 trying to find ways out of the previous tsunami of sanctions and economic warfare that only produced spectacular blowback.

The Americans predictably emphasized that “one meeting is not enough to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.†Of course not. Presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov noted that Putin himself will decide when “contacts with the U.S. on Ukraine†will begin, and who will be the Russian negotiators.

Lavrov fully debunked the existence of a three-stage plan on Ukraine, including a ceasefire; elections; and the signing of a final agreement. Carefully examining the record so far, Lavrov has always maintained that the U.S. is “non-agreement capableâ€.

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff was positively beaming:

“We couldn’t have imagined a better result after this session.†Well, Witkoff certainly followed the money – Trump’s supreme priority – when he and the American delegation were completely “surprised†to learn that “U.S. companies lost $300 billion from leaving Russiaâ€, as revealed by the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev.

As with the BRICS fiasco, looks like Team Trump also has not been doing their homework on the business front.

How the geoeconomic war was won

Based on what happened in Riyadh, it’s too early to brag that Washington under Trump 2.0 has declared that Ukraine – and his puny narco-Fuhrer – are over. A rump Ukraine will survive in some shape or form, but it’s far from clear “what†will be post-war Ukraine.

As for Russia at the forefront of designing a new world order, that seems to be the case. A New Great Game is starting, eons away from the original – British – 19th century concoction, and much closer to how a New Great Game was perceived in the early 2010s, when the Chinese came up with the New Silk Roads concept.

When we have Washington and Russia now proclaiming to “consider each other’s interestsâ€, that automatically means the Empire of Chaos losing its previous leverage and now being forced to sit on the table and listen (Lavrov emphasized we actually heard each other).

When both delegations stress that a personal Trump-Putin meeting is very complicated to schedule, that can certainly be interpreted as code for how the U.S. Deep State will be forced to spin what is a de facto unmitigated strategic defeat in a failed proxy war.

Beyond the proverbial torrent of spin on what are Trump’s real motives to get closer to Russia, generating even delightful intimations of a hallucinatory magic carpet ride – to the sound of Steppenwolf and Jefferson Airplane – it’s all possible this may only be a fictional ride.

Or something way more sinister: Trump setting up the European rabble for a new Great War against Russia before 2030, with the Americans watching from afar.

What is certain is that Trump wants to normalize Russia to stop losing money in Ukraine – let those European patsies pay up – and concentrate on the real nitty gritty: the tech and geoeconomics war with China, which Beijing in several layers has already won without launching a single HIMARS, instead concentrating on the achievements of the Made in China 2025 plan.

As for the EUro patsies, which Trump positively abhors, they gathered together in Paris for a glorious counter-summitry non-event: the League of Losers, discussing, what else, their Forever War, and how they are going to dispatch their “peacekeeping†forces – that they don’t have, with weapons they don’t have – to Ukraine.

That mutt posing as British PM is promising to put “boots on the ground†while the toxic Medusa von der Lugen continues to vociferate in her rabid warmongering chihuahua best. Even other rabid dogs such as Poland, alongside poodles Germany, Italy and Spain said “no†to the Brit Dr. Martens avalanche.

As it stands, what happened in Riyadh was just a first step – a U.S.-Russia reconciliation of sorts, like the long detente of the late 1960s and mid-1970s; Gorbachev-Reagan in 1986-1989 and Gorbachev-Daddy Bush in 1989-1991 (that finished with the collapse of the USSR); and Medvedev-Obama in 2009 (that ended with the destruction of Libya).

So for the moment we have zero facts. Apart from what Russian forces are continuing to create in the battlefields of Novorossiya. These new facts on the ground will make things even more dire for the Americans, as the ultra-problematic Ukraine negotiation will stretch for at least a few months.

Let a sobering Lavrov have the last word: “When national interests align, we need to do everything to unite efforts on these tracks, for the sake of mutually beneficial projects, both in the geopolitical sphere and economic affairs.†Lavrov is convinced that the Americans now “have a better understanding of our position.â€

Will that be the case – or will this just be another chapter in a relentless reality show? Let the New Great Game really begin.

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•ï¿½Category: Foreign Policy •ï¿½Tags: Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, NATO, Russia, Sergei Lavrov, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin�

AVDEYEVKA – It’s a snowy noon in Avdeyevka this past Saturday – exactly one year and two days after the liberation of the now completely destroyed city, and I am talking to two survivors of the ordeal, Nadezhda and Elena, both in their 60s, exhibiting the willpower of giants, in their rebuilt apartments.

Avdeevka. One year after liberation.

Avdeevka.

Avdeevka.

Avdeevka. The scale of destruction.

Avdeevka. Featuring London – MI6 – Bridge.

Avdeyevka was an avowedly impregnable fortress used by Ukrainians to shell Donetsk and environs non-stop. Much like Palestinians in Gaza, civilian victims in Donbass never existed in the collective West narrative of the war.

Nadezhda painfully rememorates surviving as a hostage in a cramped basement with no water or electricity, just a small generator, and getting the essentials from Russian NGOs and soldiers.

Showing black and white photos, Elena remembers the golden days of Avdeyevka as a company town, where around 40,000 workers were employed by the massive Avdeyeka Coke and Chemical Plant, built by the USSR in 1964, and providing essential coke for the nearby Mariupol Steel Works.

What’s striking in Elena’s time travel is that she bears no grudges against Ukrainians or Russians – whose lethal clash progressively shattered her city. A former kindergarten teacher, with a soft voice and excellent articulation, she attributes it all to what could be construed as a toxic misunderstanding.

To revisit Avdeyevka one year after the liberation is a tremendously emotional experience. Amidst the wasteland now called peace – reminding us of Tacitus – one can spot tiny glimpses of reconstruction: a few working shops, and plaques detailing which company from which Russian region is responsible for the rebuilding of whole apartment blocks.

This is the reality of war and post-war that those EUrocrats gathered at the Munich Security Conference could not possibly comprehend – as much as they were sent spinning like clueless cockroaches after the dressing down they received from Trump 2.0 stalwarts.

There are now some intimations of normality across Donbass. Lugansk feels like a boom town – with bustling businesses, brand new Chinese cars all around, and gleaming new parks. On Friday, people were streaming to place red roses at the foot of the monument celebrating the liberation of the city from the Nazis way back in 1943.

The occasional loud boom is still heard across Donetsk – but that is nothing compared to a year ago, when the frontline could be as close as 4 km away. Nightlife is in effect in a funky underground bar where young rappers read their lyrics on their smartphones.

Commanders confidently explain how the frontline is constantly advancing West towards Pokrovsk – and beyond. Back on the road, they share some privileged intel on how the frontlines will look like in a month or so.

Battle hardened professionals, they dismiss the rumblings from Munich as chattering class inconsequence – and harbor no illusions about the US-Russia negotiations in Riyadh.

Video Link

Minefields and violins

Donbass magic works in mysterious ways. In the morning you feel like an apocalyptic prisoner in a disaster movie set in Avdeyevka. In the afternoon you are face to face with the Donetsk State Academic Philharmonic, which never stopped playing all through these war years, with some musicians leaving to the front, and some dying in battle.

Enjoying the wonderful Donetsk Philharmonic, which never stopped playing during all the war years. The organ in the back was played by Tchaikovsky.

Donetsk Philharmonic.

Donetsk Philharmonic.

Dmitry Karas, the affable deputy director of the Philharmonic, shows me around the museum, filled with preciosities, some directly linked to Prokofiev. The orchestra this Saturday plays mostly popular songs from the 60s, to rapturous applause, especially when the stunning beautiful lead singer Anna Bratus – an Honored Artist of Ukraine – displays her powers. The spectacular organ behind the orchestra was played in the past by Tchaikovsky.

Back on the road, on the way to Ugledar – which was liberated only four months ago – the reality of war creeps in again. On the left side of the road, trenches under the snow, now abandoned: these were Donetsk People’s Republic positions. On the right side, a sea of unexploded mines, placed in the fields by Ukrainians. Demining will take a long time – teams are already active, starting from the outskirts of Donetsk.

We reach the village of Nikolskoe, very close to Ugledar, harboring the magnificent St. Nikolas and St. Basil’s Monastery Abode. It’s like two monasteries, one male and one female, in one, with a church and surrounding convents. The whole compound was shelled virtually non-stop by the Ukrainians, which were positioned on a hill on the other side of the main road.

We go there: the monasteries were right in the line of fire. It got really ugly; a female convent, filled with nuns, was hit by no less than five HIMARS. Many people died. Try to explain this fact of war to the Estonian imbecile posing as head of the EU’s foreign policy, representing 450 million Europeans, as she mumbled in Munich that no Russians die in the Ukraine conflict.

Inside the church, at least 50 people, mostly elderly, with no place to go, still live and pray; their beds are neatly placed and there is a communal kitchen. At least 250 people used to live in what was considered the only safe place around for several months.

The tricky matter of finding a ride back to Moscow, due to pressing commitments, is solved by my crack producer Masha Lelyanova the “Hand of God†Donbass way: we are taken by two members of the PeresVet 9 group, who every month drive all the way to Donbass and back in their Tank SUV crammed with humanitarian aid deposited at a church in the outskirts of Moscow.

Video Link

Lavrov lays down the Law

The Power of Resistance: Avdeevka is Russia.

Avdeevka. Back to the church of Mary Magdalen, slowly being rebuilt. Working 24/7, that will take a year.

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•ï¿½Category: Foreign Policy •ï¿½Tags: Russia, Ukraine�

Either Ukraine surrenders unconditionally – or the war show must go on. Meanwhile, let’s Keep on Trumpin’.

Mr. Disco Inferno has reverted to his default mode of throwing tantrum after tantrum because nearly everybody in West Asia and beyond is sayin’ NO to the Gaza Riviera Resort and Casino scam.

Here’s a partial pile-up:

  • Egypt: the Palestinians will not be ethnic cleansed here, or in Jordan, or anywhere else.
  • Saudi Arabia: We will not normalize with Israel before there is a sovereign Palestinian state.
  • Turkey, via Sultan Erdogan: No power can remove Palestinians from their “eternal†homeland.
  • Arab League: this is a “complete detachment from reality.â€
  • Hamas: there will be no more ceasefire violations.
  • Iran, via Leader Khamenei: we will NOT negotiate anything with you.

And this is just the beginning.

Russia, via Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “Washington’s attempts to give Moscow ultimatums or to demonstrate the alleged ‘big favor’ in exchange for unacceptable U.S. demands are doomed to failure in the dialogue with Russia.â€

So we should expect Mr. Disco Inferno to go totally ballistic in the next few days, literally burning the [geopolitical] dancefloor: “Burning, burning (Disco Infernoooooo) / burning burning / burn that mother downâ€.

Now gimme $500 billion in rare earth metals

Mr. Disco Inferno has stated that under his Gaza Riviera scheme,

Palestinians would have no right of return after they are expelled because “they are going to have much better housing.†That will signify the normalization of ethnic cleansing under a Nakba 2.0 on steroids – billed as a “humanitarian†real estate development opportunity in a “phenomenal locationâ€.

It’s no wonder that even feeble Arab vassals of the Empire of Chaos had to reject it. Not to mention that would Nakba 2.0 be implemented, Palestinian armed resistance will go sky-high, with instrumental input by a rejuvenated Hezbollah.

The Trump Gaza Riviera Resort and Casino scheme is essentially reviving an Israeli Ministry of Intelligence deportation framework detailed as early as in October 13, 2023 – and leaked by the Israeli news magazine Calcalist 11 days later.

At the time, the plan called to deport the people of Gaza to north Sinai, after totally “clearing†Gaza and installing them on tent cities in a “closed security zone†within Egypt. This plan was at least partly implemented.

Then, in May 2024, Netanyahu’s office came up with an even more detailed four-step plan which started with – what else – “demolitionâ€. Trump has used the exact terminology to describe Gaza.

The Israeli plan included setting up “Hamas-free zones supervised by an UAE-led coalition; designing “new cities†from scratch; and if everything went swell, rinse and repeat in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. We may be on stage 1 of this plan.

Gaza is in fact the toxic blueprint for a much larger and insidious NATO project, encompassing vast tracts of West Asia, as Israel all the way through has been weaponized by U.S. and UK; Turkey continued to supply it with Azeri oil from the BTC pipeline; and Arab “leadership†has behaved like eunuchs – at least until the announcement of Gaza Riviera.

Compared to the upgraded Forever Wars chapter in West Asia, the Forever Wars chapter in Ukraine is a much tougher proposition.

Mr. Disco Inferno’s much hyped “peace†plan for Ukraine was actually put on hold, as he decided to send his special envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg to the Munich Security Conference to feel the pulse of the NATO vassals.

Translation: let’s cut a deal on all those rare earth metals. The sweaty sweatshirt actor in Kiev is ready to give up all available Ukrainian land and resources to save himself. Problem is the absolute majority of those rare earth metals are in Novorossiya, and already in the possession of Russia.

Mr. Disco Inferno did not beat around the bush:

“They have very valuable lands in terms of rare earth metals, oil and gas. I want our money to be protected, we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars. And they may make a deal, they may not. They may become Russian someday, they may not become Russian. But we will have all this money, and I say I want it back. I said I want the equivalent of, say, $500 billion in rare earth metals. And they basically agreed to do that. So at least we don’t feel like fools.â€

U.S.-Russia relations “on the verge of ruptureâ€

Kellogg is dismissed in Moscow’s circles of power as “a representative of the U.S. industrial-military complex†and more bluntly, as the proverbial imperial asset: a militarily illiterate Cold War-style general with zero knowledge of geopolitics. Whenever he opens his mouth in public, that is duly confirmed.

Moreover his daughter, Megan Mobbs, is the president of the RT Weatherman Foundation, which since the start of the war in 2022 runs a logistical hub on the border with Romania to evacuate wounded and killed American mercenaries to a medical center in Germany, as well as to deliver different firms of “aid†to Ukraine.

In January 2023, her foundation sponsored Kellogg’s trip to Ukraine, after which he called the U.S. Senate to “provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defeat Russia’s military, implement strict accountability measures for that military assistance, and do it now.â€

The mood in informed Moscow is that a potential U.S.-Russia negotiation will have less than zero effect on the current plans of Russia’s General Staff. On the battlefield, Russian forces continue to advance and consolidate what is defined as a “road net†– former Ukrainian supply routes -, preparing for better weather in Spring which will potentialize even more their advantage on air power and drones.

Once again it was Ryabkov who laid down the line on what Moscow expects from Trump 2.0:

“The first step towards normalizing bilateral relations, meaning negotiations based on the principles of mutual respect and equality, should be taken by the United States. We are open to dialogue, ready to negotiate in a tough bargaining mode, taking into account the realities ‘on the ground’ and our national interests, predetermined by history and geography. So the decisions and choice are up to Trump and his team.â€

The problem is the Empire of Chaos does not do “mutual respect and equalityâ€; it is exceptionalist by definition. The Empire of Chaos does not do “dialogâ€: it’s always “my way or the highwayâ€. And the memory-impaired Empire of Chaos dismisses both “history and geographyâ€.

After detailing how “relations between Moscow and Washington are balancing on the verge of ruptureâ€; how Russia “sees no practical changes†in the U.S.’s Ukrainian policy; how Moscow and Washington “have not yet agreed on high-level contactsâ€; and how Moscow “does not expect its relations with Washington to get much better†under Trump 2.0, Ryabkov, as a clincher, in fact already painted the Big Picture ahead:

“Washington’s attempts to give Moscow ultimatums or to demonstrate the alleged ‘big favor’ in exchange for unacceptable U.S. demands are doomed to failure in the dialogue with Russia.â€

Neither Trump nor Kellogg seem to have gotten the message.

Not to mention that the CIA is feeding them a comet of stupidities when it comes to the state of the Russian economy.

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•ï¿½Category: Foreign Policy, History •ï¿½Tags: Donald Trump, Gaza, Israel/Palestine, Russia, Ukraine�

MOSCOW – The 14th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Club in Moscow was hit by a geopolitical bunker buster bomb right in the middle of the proceedings: the announcement, by US President Donald Trump himself, of some sort of future Trump Gaza Riviera Resort and Casino in Palestine.

Even before international outrage started to overspill, from the BRICS front to ASEAN to the Arab world (which sees it as Nakba 2.0), reaching even Trump-friendly Saudi Arabia and major US allies in Europe, perplexity set in at Valdai among most scholars and academics.

Two glaring exceptions were professor at the University of Tehran Mohammad Marandi and former British diplomat Alastair Crooke – always delicately nuanced analysts of West Asia. Both have long argued that as the US empire is being forced to retreat, it will become much more ruthless and take greater risks.

Marandi qualifies Trump as “a gift” to American global decline. Crooke, for his part, wonders whether Israel’s far-right Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu really trapped Trump in a quagmire – when it may be the other way around. Trump now seems to have Netanyahu – which he basically despises – exactly where he wants him: owing favors.

Trump made a lot of bombastic promises, which Netanyahu can sell as a major success to the Tel Aviv warmongers who compose his government. So his coalition will hold – for now. Yet, in return, Israel will still have to follow the next steps of the despised ceasefire project. And that would lead, in theory, to the end of the war. Netanyahu wants an Infinite War, with unlimited Eretz Israel expansion and annexation. That is not a done deal – by far.

As it stands, at face value, in one fell swoop, Trump normalized genocide, ethnic cleansing, and the reduction of the Gaza tragedy to a tawdry real estate deal in a “phenomenal location.†The accumulated effect of “the US will take over the Gaza strip,†“we will own it,†and “… level the site†not only opens the US to a shockingly illegal foreign annexation, but it’s the embarrassingly passe “there are no Palestinians†trope on steroids.

But this is far from “sheer lunacy,†as defined by US think tanks everywhere. It’s a natural extension of trying to buy Greenland, trying to annex Canada (in both cases, an increase to the US resource base), grabbing the Panama Canal, and rechristening the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.

It’s about changing the subject and the predominant narrative instead of addressing the real threat to the Empire: the Russia–China strategic partnership.

In this case, the new Gaza Riviera built on a pyramid of skulls is not only endorsed but already envisioned by the genocidals in Tel Aviv in tandem with Trump’s billionaire donors, a key part of Israel’s lobby in the US.

Trump’s vision, according to New York insiders, came from his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who less than a year ago was already talking about the real estate gold represented by the Gaza seashore. Kushner is even more dangerous now that he’s acting behind the curtains in Trump’s second term: he’s the main influencer on POTUS when it comes to a possible, future US-sanctioned occupation of Gaza.

For the moment, we have a Deporting-Building-Selling reality show ethos applied to the most insoluble problem in West Asia. Marandi calls it the “US–Israel problem.†Taha Ozhan at the Ankara Institute qualifies it as “the Israeli-centered order†as well as “the American problem.â€

Living under a ‘global regime change’

The discussions at Valdai, of course, extrapolated Trump’s Gaza bombshell. Ozhan focused on the “immense stress test†on West Asia – from the genocide in Gaza to “Assad must go†metastasizing into Al-Qaeda in suits ruling Damascus. He warns that the current global chaos may spawn new wars: We are now in a process of “global regime change,†where “sustainable instability is over.â€

The Palestinian presence, via PLO Minister of Social Development Ahmad Majdalani, was not exactly heartening. He drummed up the usual talking points, such as the problem of “normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel with the backdrop of annexation of the West Bank,†while “other Muslim nations only watch from the sidelines.â€

Majdalani also wondered whether “BRICS will be able to work as an effective counter-balance†to the “American problem,†as defined by Ozhan. But on the tortuous issue of Palestinian unity, he offered nothing new, and went on carping about the impossibility of “the Abraham Accords without the Palestinian people.â€

The eminent Vitaly Naumkin, President of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, published an excellent report on Syria, co-authored with Vasily Kuznetsov, also from the Institute of Oriental Studies.

While they stress that the fall of former longtime Syrian president Bashar al-Assad represents a “window of opportunity†for Israel, Turkiye, and the Gulf monarchies, they qualify the nuances.

What is Israel really up to? “Establishing direct control over certain (which exactly?) territories or creating a wide buffer zone?â€

On Turkiye, “Ankara’s interest in inflicting a strategic defeat on the Kurds and possibly creating a buffer zone along the Syrian–Turkish border is understandable.†What is unclear is “the extent of the [American] commitment to investing in the Kurds†under Trump.

On the Gulf monarchies, “they will strengthen their position primarily using economic leverage.†Yet “the interests of various GCC countries vary, and their alignment is not always clear.â€

As for Iran, Naumkin and Kuznetsov realistically point out that if the formerly extremist, new Syrian setup “fail[s] to consolidate society†– and that’s a very strong possibility – “Iran may have another shot at restoring its influence.â€

For Naumkin, the Russian bases in Syria “should stay†– a topic that is, incidentally, a source of fierce debate in Moscow’s corridors of power. He argues this position mostly because Russia “could balance the expansionist designs of some Turkiye factions in northern Syria.â€

Corridor-mania

Even though the recently-signed Russia–Iran strategic partnership was not specifically discussed at Valdai, Marandi noted that “Iran is moving very fast on what needs to be built, because that will draw India much closer economically.â€

The heart of the matter of the Russia–Iran deal is not military: it’s geoeconomic, and centered on the International North–South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), a key Eurasia/BRICS integration connectivity project.

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•ï¿½Category: Foreign Policy •ï¿½Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, BRICs, China, Donald Trump, Gaza, Iran, Israel/Palestine, Russia�

European chihuahuas, enjoy your “strategic defeat†fantasies!

Let’s start with the tale of an Empire bragging to the wind.

Mr. Disco Inferno orders OPEC and OPEC+ to lower the price of oil, because, in his mind, that may solve the war in Ukraine – as in forcing Moscow to the table because of dwindling energy revenues. That in itself summarizes the level of garbage being fed to POTUS by his cornucopia of acronyms passing for intel.

Trump at Davos: “I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil (…) If the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately. Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue (…) With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And, likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us.â€

Quite predictably, OPEC+ – basically run by Saudi Arabia and Russia – said Nyet. Apart from the fact they don’t care much about interest rates, on the energy front they’ll keep doing what they have planned to do, including soon decreasing production, but at acceptable levels.

Standard Chartered, a major player, noted that OPEC has limited power to end the war immediately by reducing the oil price, with OPEC ministers considering this attempt at “strategy†as very inefficient and costly.

So much for imperial diktats.

The Chihuahua Strategic Victory Plan

As highlighted before, the U.S. – via fracking – has enough gas for domestic consumption, but not enough to export en masse to the EU, because of liquification problems. That explains why even buying more American energy for exorbitant prices, the EU de facto remains largely dependent on Russian LNG – and non-U.S. sources – since the sabotage of the Nord Streams, unveiled in detail by Sy Hersh.

Even at full capacity, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot deliver all the gas the EU needs; add to it virtually no investment in both badly needed extra exploration plus the infrastructure necessary to meet increased EU demand.

On the domestic U.S. oil market, things do get positively Kafkaesque. U.S. trucking – a massive service industry – is dependent on imported Russian diesel, which needs to be mixed with Made in America oil in order to be suitable for trucks.

Now cut again to Davos, which came and went barely registering a blip. Toxic EC Medusa von der Leyen told Davos that Europe had “substantially reducedâ€, and “in record timeâ€, its dependency on Russian fossil fuels.

Nonsense. Europe’s energy reality is bleak. Russian LNG from Novatek is currently priced at around $4.5–$4.7 per MMBtu. That’s more expensive than pipeline gas but still much (italics mine) cheaper than American LNG.

Every industry pro from the Persian Gulf to Antwerp knows that Europe is now importing Russian LNG like it never did before. That’s it – or a dry death. In parallel, Russia will triple its LNG supply capacity by 2035. End result: whatever those “energy commissioners†in Brussels may come up with, Russia will remain essential when it comes to European energy security.

There are no limits – even stratospheric – for Eurocracy stupidity, which corrodes the system like a plague. The Europeans not only have managed to shut off their own gas pipelines but are still “investigating†the Nord Stream de facto terror attack.

End result: they are now importing more (italics mine) Russian gas, but by different means, from third-party suppliers, and paying a fortune.

This is what can be described as the Chihuahua Strategic Victory Plan.

U.S. Treasury sanctions Mr. Disco Inferno

Russia’s LNG exports hit a record high last year, growing by 4% – and delivering 33.6 million tons. The monthly record was 3.25 million tons in December 2024 – 13.7% more than November.

The largest Russian exporter is Yamal LNG: 21.1 million tons, 6% more than in 2023.

Now cut to proverbial American rumble, in the form of Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt ordering the “full termination†of Russian gas exported to Europe.

To hell with what nations like Hungary, Austria and Slovakia may think – and do need.

Pyatt told the Atlantic Council, “Today we are the largest LNG exporter in the world, and by the end of the Trump administration, we will have doubled what we’re doing today […] The decision has clearly been made in Brussels to get to zero [gas supplies from Russia] by 2027…and the United States strongly supports that goal.â€

Oh dear. Do these people even read the basic headlines? As reported by Politico, the EU is “devouring†Russian gas at unprecedented levels since the start of 2025, importing 837,300 metric tons of LNG just in the first two weeks of the year.

The Ukraine transit deal was shut off for good – at least for now – starting on January 1st. The action now is on the maritime routes.

Enter the U.S. Treasury with a new – what else – sanctions package against Russian oil trade, targeting up to 5.8 million barrels a day shipped by sea.

As it stands, the global oil market is experiencing a surplus of about 0.8 million barrels a day. Oil prices for 2025 should remain at around $71 for a barrel of Brent crude (as it stands, it’s $76.2). Not exactly what Mr. Disco Inferno wants.

So let’s assume these 5.8 million barrels of Russian oil – under stiff sanctions – would vanish from the global market. In this case we would have oil prices skyrocketing to an average of $150 to $160 a barrel. Once again, not what Mr. Disco Inferno wants: he vociferously promised – and keeps promising – a MAGA oil superpower, while lowering oil prices to max $50 a barrel.

According to Russia’s 2025 budget, oil is priced at $65.9 a barrel.

If the U.S. Treasury manages to work its magic and “disappear†with those 5.8 million barrels, Russian revenues would go up to around $88.2 billion, even considering much lower exports.

High oil prices hurt American competitiveness. So somebody should tell Mr. Disco Inferno this U.S. Treasury gambit is actually more negative to Trumpian dreams than to Russia.

Across Eurasia, Russia is sitting pretty, especially with its BRICS partners. Power of Siberia to China is on a roll, and Power of Siberia II should start operating by 2030. A boost on LNG exports to Iran is a done deal – especially after the signing of the strategic partnership earlier this month.

This year a deal will also be signed in Russia to transport LNG to Afghanistan via tanker convoys. Next step will be Pipelineistan: perhaps, finally, the necessary steps to build a variant of TAPI (the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline, but with gas coming from Russia.

The biggest customer for Russian LNG, apart from China, is of course BRICS partner India. It’s in the interests of Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and India to have a stabilized Pakistan – not an Islamabad remote-controlled by Washington, as in the current setup – for the final opening of Russian LNG routes to India. That will happen, in time.

As for the European chihuahuas, enjoy your “strategic defeat†fantasies. Keep yapping – and buying Russian LNG.

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•ï¿½Category: Economics, Foreign Policy •ï¿½Tags: Donald Trump, EU, Natural Gas, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine�
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