Minnesota State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Minnesota Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 9, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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Republicans won control of the Minnesota State Senate, which gave Republicans control over both state legislative chambers. Republicans gained six seats in the November general election, giving the GOP a one-seat majority. House Republicans also expanded their majority to a 19-seat lead.
All 67 seats in the Minnesota State Senate were up for election in 2016.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Minnesota State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. Democrats sought to defend their 11-seat majority against the Republicans. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Minnesota State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 9, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was May 31, 2016.
Context
In the 2012 presidential election, Republicans lost majorities in both houses by at least the previous margin of control. Democrats argued that higher turnout in presidential elections tends to benefit their candidates, whereas Republicans claimed that this year's presidential race would negatively affect candidates in rural legislative districts, which they saw as battlegrounds. Larry Jacobs, professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, said that Democrats would "have an advantage" due to higher turnout, though with Hillary Clinton as their nominee, they would not see the same level of turnout caused by voter enthusiasm for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.[1]
In early 2015, Minnesota Democrats launched the Minnesota Rural Initiative, a program seeking to train rural candidates following criticism of an "autopsy report" on the 2014 election for not acknowledging rural voters. State Rep. Jeanne Poppe said that the program could be "the playbook for 2018 and beyond" in other states.[2]
Incumbents in Minnesota have especially strong advantages in primary contests because Minnesota's political parties play a larger role in legislative districts than they do in other states. Because of this, potential primary challengers tend to drop out of races early if they are unable to secure endorsements from activist groups. Low voter turnout outside of activist or endorsement groups further emphasizes the importance of the political support these groups provide to candidates.[3]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Minnesota State Senate:
| Minnesota State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 38 | 33 | |
| Republican Party | 28 | 34 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 67 | 67 | |
Incumbents retiring
Thirteen incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| LeRoy Stumpf |  Democratic |
Senate District 1 |
| Roger Reinert | Democratic |
Senate District 7 |
| John Pederson |  Republican |
Senate District 14 |
| Dave Brown | Republican |
Senate District 15 |
| Kathy Sheran | Democratic |
Senate District 19 |
| Alice Johnson | Democratic |
Senate District 37 |
| Barb Goodwin | Democratic |
Senate District 41 |
| Bev Scalze | Democratic |
Senate District 42 |
| Terri Bonoff | Democratic |
Senate District 44 |
| Julianne Ortman | Republican |
Senate District 47 |
| James Metzen | Democratic |
Senate District 52 |
| Katie Sieben | Democratic |
Senate District 54 |
| Dave Thompson | Republican |
Senate District 58 |
Note: Incumbent James Metzen (D-52) died on July 11, 2016, after a battle with lung cancer.
2016 election competitiveness
Minnesota sees improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Minnesota performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Minnesota State Senate, there were 39 Democratic incumbents and 28 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was just one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there are 61 Democratic incumbents and 73 Republican incumbents. Four state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were three primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Minnesota can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified seven notable Minnesota state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests. One of these Senate contests was a primary race, and can be viewed by clicking the "Primary election" tab below.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Minnesota races »
General election contests
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a potentially competitive race.
- ☐ Lyle Koenen (Inc.) ☑ Andrew Lang
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Paul Anderson ☐ Deb Calvert
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Matt Little ☐ Tim Pitcher
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Primary contests
- A vulnerable Republican incumbent faced a strong primary challenger.
- ☐ Sean Nienow (Inc.) ☑ Mark Koran
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Minnesota State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 67 races in the Minnesota State Senate in 2016, 66 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 25.6 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[4]
| Democratic candidates in the Minnesota State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 33 races. In the 32 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 26.5 percent. Republicans won 34 races in 2016. In the 34 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.8 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 17 of the 66 contested races in 2016—25.8 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Nine races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won 12 races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Minnesota State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5 R 1.4 percent District 11 D 9.1 percent District 14 R 0.4 percent District 20 R 4.0 percent District 21 R 8.6 percent District 27 D 9.6 percent District 36 D 2.2 percent District 37 D 3.0 percent District 42 D 8.6 percent District 44 R 0.4 percent District 48 D 2.3 percent District 49 D 9.1 percent District 51 D 8.2 percent District 53 D 0.9 percent District 54 D 6.4 percent District 57 D 6.3 percent District 58 D 0.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Minnesota State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 46 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 45 winning Minnesota State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 31.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Minnesota State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 24 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 23 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.1 percent. 22 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 22 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 30.6 percent. |
Minnesota State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[5] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[5] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 33 26.5 percent 24 32.1 percent 1 1 3.0 percent Republican 34 24.8 percent 22 30.6 percent 0 0 0.0 percent Total 67 25.6 percent 46 31.3 percent 1 1 1.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Minnesota State Senate districts in 2016.
| Minnesota State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 22.9 percent |
| District 2 | R | 13.3 percent |
| District 3 | D | 22.9 percent |
| District 4 | D | 10.4 percent |
| District 5 | R | 1.4 percent |
| District 6 | D | 25.6 percent |
| District 7 | D | 31.3 percent |
| District 8 | R | 32.6 percent |
| District 9 | R | 42.5 percent |
| District 10 | R | 28.8 percent |
| District 11 | D | 9.2 percent |
| District 12 | R | 35.3 percent |
| District 13 | R | 37.3 percent |
| District 14 | R | 0.4 percent |
| District 15 | R | 41.7 percent |
| District 16 | R | 34.7 percent |
| District 17 | R | 14.6 percent |
| District 18 | R | 33.4 percent |
| District 19 | D | 19.2 percent |
| District 20 | R | 4.0 percent |
| District 21 | R | 8.6 percent |
| District 22 | R | 40.5 percent |
| District 23 | R | 41.8 percent |
| District 24 | R | 17.2 percent |
| District 25 | R | 26.6 percent |
| District 26 | R | 12.0 percent |
| District 27 | D | 9.6 percent |
| District 28 | R | 26.1 percent |
| District 29 | R | 32.2 percent |
| District 30 | R | 43.6 percent |
| District 31 | R | 36.1 percent |
| District 32 | R | 13.2 percent |
| District 33 | R | 25.4 percent |
| District 34 | R | 20.6 percent |
| District 35 | R | 35.2 percent |
| District 36 | D | 2.2 percent |
| District 37 | D | 3.0 percent |
| District 38 | R | 17.4 percent |
| District 39 | R | 22.7 percent |
| District 40 | D | 36.2 percent |
| District 41 | D | 22.3 percent |
| District 42 | D | 8.6 percent |
| District 43 | D | 21.5 percent |
| District 44 | R | 0.4 percent |
| District 45 | D | 27.7 percent |
| District 46 | D | Unopposed |
| District 47 | R | 34.7 percent |
| District 48 | D | 2.3 percent |
| District 49 | D | 9.1 percent |
| District 50 | D | 19.5 percent |
| District 51 | D | 8.2 percent |
| District 52 | D | 15.9 percent |
| District 53 | D | 0.9 percent |
| District 54 | D | 6.4 percent |
| District 55 | R | 37.4 percent |
| District 56 | R | 10.3 percent |
| District 57 | D | 6.3 percent |
| District 58 | D | 0.9 percent |
| District 59 | D | 55.8 percent |
| District 60 | D | 56.1 percent |
| District 61 | D | 62.5 percent |
| District 62 | D | 76.7 percent |
| District 63 | D | 61.9 percent |
| District 64 | D | 53.7 percent |
| District 65 | D | 62.1 percent |
| District 66 | D | 49.1 percent |
| District 67 | D | 50.7 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Minnesota elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Minnesota in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 2015 year-end report of receipts and expenditures due | |
| May 17, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period opens | |
| May 31, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period closes | |
| July 25, 2016 | Campaign finance | First report of receipts and expenditures due (covering January 1 through July 18) | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second report of receipts and expenditures due (covering January 1 through November 24) | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | 2016 year-end report of receipts and expenditures due | |
| Sources: Minnesota Secretary of State, "Filing Periods," accessed June 12, 2015 Minnesota Votes, "2016 Election Dates," accessed June 12, 2015 Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board, "2016 Disclosure Calendar," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In all but two of the 67 districts that were up for election, there were candidates from both major parties running for election. Two Democrats, incumbent Ron Latz and incumbent Kari Dziedzic, were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on August 9. Thirteen incumbents did not seek re-election and another 50 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. Sean Nienow (R-32) was the only incumbent defeated in the primary.
Retired incumbents
Thirteen incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 54 (80.5 percent) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, nine Democrats and four Republicans, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Minnesota's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Minnesota Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 11.2% | 4.2% | 93.3% | 36.2 | 14 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Minnesota in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[6]
| Minnesota State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2012 | 166 | $5,500,465 |
| 2010 | 160 | $5,876,613 |
| 2006 | 152 | $6,896,027 |
Qualifications
To be eligible to run for the Minnesota State Senate, a candidate must meet the following criteria:[7]
- be eligible to vote in Minnesota;
- not have filed for more than one office for the upcoming primary or general election;
- be at least 21 years old;
- be a resident of Minnesota for at least one year; and
- be a resident of the legislative district for at least six months prior to the general election date.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ MinnPost, "Why 2016 will be unlike any Minnesota election in over a decade," July 22, 2015
- ↑ The Hill, "Minnesota Democrats target rural vote for 2016 state legislative fights," December 11, 2015
- ↑ A Ballotpedia staff member received information about this topic from an email conversation with a Minnesota-based political writer.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Minnesota," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Filing for Office," accessed June 23, 2014
