New York State Senate elections, 2016
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2016 New York Senate Elections | |
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Primary | September 13, 2016 |
General | November 8, 2016 |
2016 Election Results | |
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All 63 seats in the New York State Senate were up for election in 2016.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the New York State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the New York State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on September 13, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The filing deadline for major party candidates was July 14, 2016. The filing deadline for independent candidates was August 23, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the New York State Senate was controlled by Republicans through a power-sharing agreement. Simcha Felder (D) was a part of the Republican Conference. Jeffrey Klein, David Valesky, David Carlucci, Diane Savino, and Tony Avella were a part of the Independent Democratic Conference, tipping the balance further towards the GOP.
Republicans continued to maintain control of the chamber after the election through the same power-sharing agreement with Felder and the Independent Democratic Conference.[2]
New York State Senate | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
Democratic Party | 31 | 32 | |
Republican Party | 31 | 31 | |
Vacant | 1 | 0 | |
Total | 63 | 63 |
Retired incumbents
Five incumbent senators did not seek re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
Name | Party | Current Office |
---|---|---|
Jack Martins | ![]() |
Senate District 7 |
Adriano Espaillat | ![]() |
Senate District 31 |
Hugh Farley | ![]() |
Senate District 49 |
Michael Nozzolio | ![]() |
Senate District 54 |
Marc C. Panepinto | ![]() |
Senate District 60 |
Note: District 36 was vacant, and was previously represented by Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D).
Context of the 2016 elections
Before the Republican Party regained control of the state Senate in 2014, the party had held the majority off and on for over four decades. The Democratic Party gained the majority in 2008 but lost it in 2010. While Democrats held the numerical advantage after the 2012 election, a coalition of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and the Republicans helped give Republicans control.[3] Since Senate Democrats won a special election in District 9 on April 19, 2016, Democrats held a one-seat advantage over Republicans, but the power-sharing agreement between the IDC and Senate Republicans kept the chamber in Republican control.
The New York State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[4] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 6 and Senate District 7 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]
Of the 25 state Senate seats deemed competitive by Ballotpedia, 24 were effectively controlled by the Republican Party. One of those seats belonged to David Carlucci, a Republican-leaning member of the Independent Democratic Conference. Twenty of those districts were won by Barack Obama in 2012. These competitive races, coupled with the idea that a Clinton win in the state would also bring legislative seats, gave possibility that control of the New York State Senate could have shifted into the Democrats' favor.
An article published on the political research website FiveThirtyEight.com speculated that the presidential election would affect state legislative races. Seth Masket, the author of this article, noted that, historically, there is a measurable "trickle-down" affect from presidential elections. A victory or loss on the presidential ticket tends to translate to comparable gains or losses in the legislative branch. Clinton's victory in New York likely helped Senate Democrats.[7]
Long Island was considered to be one of the key battlegrounds in the state Senate since its nine-member delegation was made up of eight Republicans.[8] One of the campaign strategies for Long Island Democratic candidates was to tie Nassau County's Republican Senate candidates to Donald Trump (R). Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan (R) endorsed Trump for president. Flanagan said, "I’m going to make this unequivocally clear. I’m supporting Donald Trump for president. I’m going to do so with grace, with diplomacy, with passion and with fervor and I’m going to do it with New York style."[9] A Siena poll from September 2016 found that, "62% of voters statewide — including 56% in the suburbs — believed that Trump would hurt, not help, the GOP effort to maintain its Senate majority. The same poll showed 67% of suburban voters held an unfavorable view of Trump and just 32% in the suburbs were prepared to vote for him in November."[10] Senate GOP spokesman Scott Reif believed that Democrats had a "complete and absolute fixation on Donald Trump" to hide their failures of when they controlled the Senate in 2009 and 2010. Reif said, "When you are wrong on all of the issues that Long Island taxpayers and their families care about — and the Senate Democrats are thoroughly and utterly wrong — you look for anything else to put in front of voters."[10]
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified six notable New York state legislative races in 2016, all six of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable New York races »
General election contests
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Kemp Hannon (Inc.) ☐ Ryan E. Cronin
- A Democratic candidate and a Republican candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Adam Haber ☑ Elaine Phillips
- A Republican candidate and Green Party candidate challenged the newly elected Democratic incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Todd Kaminsky (Inc.) ☐ Christopher McGrath ☐ Laurence Hirsh
- A Democratic candidate and Working Families candidate challenged the freshman Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Terrence Murphy (Inc.) ☐ Alison Boak ☐ Andrew Falk
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Sue Serino (Inc.) ☐ Terry Gipson
- A Democrat, a Republican, and a Green Party candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Amber Small ☑ Christopher Jacobs ☐ James DePasquale
List of candidates
District 1
Republican primary candidates:
- Kenneth LaValle (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Kenneth LaValle (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Greg Fischer: 47,813
Kenneth LaValle: 94,756 (I)
District 2
Republican primary candidates:
- John J. Flanagan (I)
- Conservative and Independence
- John J. Flanagan (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Peter N. Magistrale: 47,623
John J. Flanagan: 91,172 (I)
Stephen Ruth: 5,505
District 3
Democratic primary candidates:
- John De Vito Jr.: 1,390
- Working Families
- Joseph L. Fritz: 1,012
- Women's Equality
- Ricardo Montano: 898
- John De Vito Jr.: 1,390
Republican primary candidates:
- Tom Croci (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Tom Croci (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
John De Vito Jr.: 46,108
Tom Croci: 65,713 (I)
Joseph L. Fritz: 1,363 (Women's Equality)
District 4
Republican primary candidates:
- Philip Boyle (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Philip Boyle (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
John Alberts: 45,232
Philip Boyle: 76,411 (I)
District 5
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- Carl Marcellino (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Carl Marcellino (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
James Gaughran: 72,265
Carl Marcellino: 74,024 (I)
District 6
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- Kemp Hannon (I)
- Conservative, Independence, Reform, and TRP-Tax Revolt
- Kemp Hannon (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Ryan E. Cronin: 60,938
Kemp Hannon: 71,174 (I)
District 7
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
Adam Haber: 66,029
Elaine Phillips: 69,438
District 8
Republican primary candidates:
- Michael Venditto (I)
- Conservative, Independence, TRP-Tax Revolt, and Reform
- Michael Venditto (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
John E. Brooks: 68,599
Michael Venditto: 68,285 (I)
District 9
Democratic primary candidates:
- Todd Kaminsky (I)
- Working Families and Women's Equality
- Todd Kaminsky (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Todd Kaminsky: 75,245 (I)
Christopher McGrath: 68,823
Laurence Hirsh: 1,459
District 10
Democratic primary candidates:
- James Sanders, Jr.: 5,495 (I)
- Working Families
- Adrienne E. Adams: 3,988
- Women's Equality
- James Sanders, Jr.: 5,495 (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
James Sanders, Jr.: 84,582 (I)
Adrienne E. Adams: 3,054 (Women's Equality)
District 11
Democratic primary candidates:
- Tony Avella (I)
- Tony Avella (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
Tony Avella: 72,520 (I)
Mark Cipolla: 31,797
District 12
Democratic primary candidates:
- Michael Gianaris (I)
- Working Families
- Michael Gianaris (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative
- November 8 General election candidates:
Michael Gianaris: 82,328 (I)
Marvin R. Jeffcoat: 13,409
District 13
Democratic primary candidates:
- Jose Peralta: (I)
- Working Families
- Jose Peralta: (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
Jose Peralta: 59,896 (I)
Jesus Gonzalez: 9,162
District 14
Democratic primary candidates:
- Leroy Comrie (I)
- Working Families
- Leroy Comrie (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- November 8 General election candidates:
Leroy Comrie: 97,578 (I)
Jarret N. Freeman: 8,364
District 15
Democratic primary candidates:
- Joseph Addabbo (I)
- Women's Equality
- Joseph Addabbo (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
Joseph Addabbo: 62,460 (I)
Michael Conigliaro: 35,691
District 16
Democratic primary candidates:
- Toby Ann Stavisky: 5,690 (I)
- Working Families and Women's Equality
- S.J. Jung: 3,966
- Toby Ann Stavisky: 5,690 (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
Toby Ann Stavisky: 52,495 (I)
Carlos G. Giron: 14,856
District 17
Democratic primary candidates:
- Simcha Felder (I)
- Republican and Conservative
- Simcha Felder (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
- November 8 General election candidates:
Simcha Felder (I)
District 18
Democratic primary candidates:
- Debbie Medina: 3,988
- Martin Malave Dilan: 5,844 (I)
- Independence
- November 8 General election candidates:
Martin Malave Dilan (I)
District 19
Democratic primary candidates:
- Mercedes Narcisse: 3,284
- Roxanne Persaud: 10,358 (I)
- Working Families
- November 8 General election candidates:
Roxanne Persaud (I)
District 20
Democratic primary candidates:
- Jesse Hamilton (I)
- Working Families and Independence
- Jesse Hamilton (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative
- November 8 General election candidates:
Jesse Hamilton: 90,272 (I)
Menachem Raitport: 5,706
District 21
Democratic primary candidates:
- Kevin Parker (I)
- Working Families
- Kevin Parker (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
- November 8 General election candidates:
Kevin Parker: 109,682 (I)
Brian Kelly: 4,256
District 22
Republican primary candidates:
- Martin Golden (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Martin Golden (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Martin Golden (I)
District 23
Democratic primary candidates:
- Diane Savino (I)
- Independence
- Diane Savino (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
- November 8 General election candidates:
Diane Savino (I)
District 24
Republican primary candidates:
- Andrew Lanza (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Andrew Lanza (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Andrew Lanza (I)
District 25
Democratic primary candidates:
- Michael Cox: 4,719
- Independence
- Velmanette Montgomery: 10,579 (I)
- Working Families
Republican primary candidates:
- November 8 General election candidates:
Velmanette Montgomery: 114,943 (I)
Mamie Rose: 3,896
Michael Cox: 4,247
District 26
Democratic primary candidates:
- Daniel Squadron (I)
- Working Families
- Daniel Squadron (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
- November 8 General election candidates:
Daniel Squadron (I)
District 27
Democratic primary candidates:
- Brad M. Hoylman (I)
- Working Families
- Brad M. Hoylman (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
- November 8 General election candidates:
Brad M. Hoylman: 118,371 (I)
Stephen Roberts: 5,317
District 28
Democratic primary candidates:
- Liz Krueger (I)
- Working Families
- Liz Krueger (I)
Independence primary:
- Republican, Women's Equality, and Libertarian
- November 8 General election candidates:
Liz Krueger: 101,117 (I)
Mike Zumbluskas: 33,788
District 29
Democratic primary candidates:
- Jose M. Serrano (I)
- Jose M. Serrano (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Jose M. Serrano: 56,194 (I)
Jose A. Colon: 6,158
Linda Ortiz: 1,752
District 30
Democratic primary candidates:
- Bill Perkins (I)
- Working Families
- Bill Perkins (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- November 8 General election candidates:
Bill Perkins: 113,144 (I)
Jon Girodes: 5,619
District 31
Democratic primary candidates:
- Robert Jackson: 7,936
- Marisol Alcantara: 8,469
- Micah Lasher: 8,175
- Luis Tejada: 1,316
- November 8 General election candidates:
Marisol Alcantara: 97,964
Melinda Crump: 8,719
John Toro: 1,368
Julia Willebrand: 6,400
District 32
Democratic primary candidates:
- Ruben Diaz: 8,557 (I)
- Elliot Quinones: 1,069
- Ruben Diaz: 8,557 (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Ruben Diaz: 79,574 (I)
Oswald Denis: 2,292
District 33
Democratic primary candidates:
- J. Gustavo Rivera: 6,036 (I)
- Working Families
- Fernando Cabrera: 3,549
- J. Gustavo Rivera: 6,036 (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
J. Gustavo Rivera: 61,953 (I)
Steven Stern: 1,340
District 34
Democratic primary candidates:
- Jeffrey Klein (I)
- Independence and Women's Equality
- Jeffrey Klein (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Jeffrey Klein: 80,998 (I)
Aleksander Mici: 6,080
Carl Lundgren: 2,686
District 35
- November 8 General election candidates:
Andrea Stewart-Cousins (I)
District 36
Democratic primary candidates:
- Edward Mulraine: 2,503
- Jamaal Bailey: 8,629
- Working Families
- Alvin Ponder: 932
- Pamela Hamilton-Johnson: 2,270
- Que English: 1,175
- November 8 General election candidates:
Jamaal Bailey: 88,233
Robert Diamond: 2,456
District 37
Democratic primary candidates:
- George Latimer (I)
- Working Families and Women's Equality
- George Latimer (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
George Latimer: 73,116 (I)
Julia P. Killian: 58,164
District 38
Democratic primary candidates:
- David Carlucci (I)
- Independence and Women's Equality
- David Carlucci (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
David Carlucci: 77,317 (I)
Thomas F. DePrisco: 41,612
District 39
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- William Larkin (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- William Larkin (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Christopher W. Eachus: 52,986
William Larkin: 59,428 (I)
District 40
Democratic primary candidates:
- Alison Boak: 4,344
- Working Families
- Andrew I. Falk: 1,179
- Alison Boak: 4,344
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- November 8 General election candidates:
Alison Boak: 58,737
Terrence P. Murphy: 80,312 (I)
District 41
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families, Women's Equality and Green
Republican primary candidates:
- Susan J. Serino (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Susan J. Serino (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Terry W. Gipson: 58,616
Susan J. Serino: 72,942 (I)
District 42
Democratic primary candidates:
- Opportunity to ballot [11]
Republican primary candidates:
- John Bonacic (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- John Bonacic (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Pramilla Malick: 43,209
John Bonacic: 68,047 (I)
District 43
- November 8 General election candidates:
Shaun P. Francis: 50,660
Kathleen A. Marchione: 85,057 (I)
Joseph Levy: 3,330
District 44
Democratic primary candidates:
- Neil Breslin (I)
- Working Families and Independence
- Neil Breslin (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- Conservative and Reform
Green primary candidates:
- November 8 General election candidates:
Neil Breslin: 77,809 (I)
Christopher Davis: 33,094
Deyva Arthur: 2,498
District 45
Republican primary candidates:
- Betty Little (I)
- Conservative and Independence
- Betty Little (I)
Green primary candidates:
- November 8 General election candidates:
Betty Little: 92,717 (I)
Stephen Matthew Ruzbacki: 12,553
District 46
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- George Amedore (I)
- Conservative, Green, Independence, and Reform
- George Amedore (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Sara K. Niccoli: 48,986
George Amedore: 83,970 (I)
District 47
Republican primary candidates:
- Joseph Griffo (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Joseph Griffo (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Joseph Griffo (I)
District 48
Republican primary candidates:
- Patricia Ritchie (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Patricia Ritchie (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Patricia Ritchie (I)
District 49
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- James Tedisco: 9,010
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Christian Klueg II: 5,429
- James Tedisco: 9,010
- November 8 General election candidates:
Chad Putman: 38,884
James Tedisco: 87,056
District 50
Republican primary candidates:
- John DeFrancisco (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- John DeFrancisco (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
John DeFrancisco (I)
District 51
Democratic primary candidates:
- Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- James L. Seward (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- James L. Seward (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Jermaine Bagnall-Graham: 31,626
James L. Seward: 84,527 (I)
District 52
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families
Republican primary candidates:
- Fred Akshar (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Fred Akshar (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Sharon Y. Ball: 30,571
Fred Akshar: 89,180 (I)
District 53
Democratic primary candidates:
- David Valesky (I)
- Independence and Women's Equality
- David Valesky (I)
Republican primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
- November 8 General election candidates:
David Valesky (I)
District 54
Democratic primary candidates:
Republican primary candidates:
- Floyd Rayburn: 3,735
- Reform
- Pamela Helming: 3,945
- Conservative and Independence
- Brian Manktelow: 2,123
- Jon Ritter: 952
- Sean Hanna: 1,370
- November 8 General election candidates:
Kenan Baldridge: 40,739
Pamela Helming: 74,175
Floyd Rayburn: 8,350 (Reform)
District 55
Democratic primary candidates:
- No candidates filed for election.
Republican primary candidates:
- Rich Funke (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Rich Funke (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Rich Funke (I)
District 56
Republican primary candidates:
- Joseph Robach (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Joseph Robach (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Ann C. Lewis: 42,764
Joseph Robach: 73,574 (I)
District 57
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- Catharine Young (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Catharine Young (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Lee Hyson: 19,136
Catharine Young: 93,320 (I)
District 58
Democratic primary candidates:
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- Thomas O'Mara (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Thomas O'Mara (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Leslie Danks Burke: 52,488
Thomas O'Mara: 63,270 (I)
District 59
Republican primary candidates:
- Patrick Gallivan (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Patrick Gallivan (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Tom Casey: 37,675
Patrick Gallivan: 100,293 (I)
District 60
Democratic primary candidates:
- Alfred T. Coppola: 3,712
- Amber Small: 7,348
- Working Families and Women's Equality
Republican primary candidates:
- Christopher Jacobs: 4,902
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Kevin T. Stocker: 1,586
- Christopher Jacobs: 4,902
- November 8 General election candidates:
Amber Small: 51,036
Christopher Jacobs: 77,327
James DePasquale: 2,835
District 61
Working Families Party candidates:
- Andre N. Liszka: 13
- Thomas A. Loughran: 46
- November 8 General election candidates:
Thomas A. Loughran: 53,363
Michael Ranzenhofer: 75,255 (I)
Ruben Cartagena Jr.: 2,012
District 62
Republican primary candidates:
- Robert Ortt (I)
- Conservative, Independence, and Reform
- Robert Ortt (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Robert Ortt (I)
District 63
Democratic primary candidates:
- Tim Kennedy (I)
- Independence, Working Families, and Women's Equality
- Tim Kennedy (I)
- November 8 General election candidates:
Tim Kennedy (I)
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the New York State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 63 races in the New York State Senate in 2016, 48 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 45.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[12]
Democratic candidates in the New York State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 32 races. In the 24 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 64.9 percent. Republicans won 31 races in 2016. In the 24 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 26.8 percent. |
More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Seven of the 48 contested races in 2016—14.6 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won five races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
New York State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5 R 1.2 percent District 6 R 7.7 percent District 7 R 2.5 percent District 8 D 0.2 percent District 9 D 4.4 percent District 39 R 5.7 percent District 58 R 9.3 percent
The average margin of victory for incumbents in the New York State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 56 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 41 winning New York State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 47.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
Democratic incumbents in the New York State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 29 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 21 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 65.9 percent. 27 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 20 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 27.8 percent. |
New York State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[13] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[13] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 32 64.9 percent 29 65.9 percent 8 8 25.0 percent Republican 31 26.8 percent 27 27.8 percent 7 7 22.6 percent Total 63 45.8 percent 56 47.3 percent 15 15 23.8 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in New York State Senate districts in 2016.
New York State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
---|---|---|
District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
District 1 | R | 32.9 percent |
District 2 | R | 30.2 percent |
District 3 | R | 17.3 percent |
District 4 | R | 25.6 percent |
District 5 | R | 1.2 percent |
District 6 | R | 7.8 percent |
District 7 | R | 2.5 percent |
District 8 | D | 0.2 percent |
District 9 | D | 4.4 percent |
District 10 | D | 93.0 percent |
District 11 | D | 39.0 percent |
District 12 | D | 72.0 percent |
District 13 | D | 73.5 percent |
District 14 | D | 84.2 percent |
District 15 | D | 27.3 percent |
District 16 | D | 55.9 percent |
District 17 | D | Unopposed |
District 18 | D | Unopposed |
District 19 | D | Unopposed |
District 20 | D | 88.1 percent |
District 21 | D | 92.5 percent |
District 22 | R | Unopposed |
District 23 | D | Unopposed |
District 24 | R | Unopposed |
District 25 | D | 89.9 percent |
District 26 | D | Unopposed |
District 27 | D | 91.4 percent |
District 28 | D | 49.9 percent |
District 29 | D | 78.1 percent |
District 30 | D | 90.5 percent |
District 31 | D | 78.0 percent |
District 32 | D | 94.4 percent |
District 33 | D | 95.8 percent |
District 34 | D | 83.5 percent |
District 35 | D | Unopposed |
District 36 | D | 94.6 percent |
District 37 | D | 11.4 percent |
District 38 | D | 30.0 percent |
District 39 | R | 5.7 percent |
District 40 | R | 15.5 percent |
District 41 | R | 10.9 percent |
District 42 | R | 22.3 percent |
District 43 | R | 24.7 percent |
District 44 | D | 39.4 percent |
District 45 | R | 76.2 percent |
District 46 | R | 26.3 percent |
District 47 | R | Unopposed |
District 48 | R | Unopposed |
District 49 | R | 38.3 percent |
District 50 | R | Unopposed |
District 51 | R | 45.5 percent |
District 52 | R | 48.9 percent |
District 53 | D | Unopposed |
District 54 | R | 27.1 percent |
District 55 | R | Unopposed |
District 56 | R | 26.5 percent |
District 57 | R | 66.0 percent |
District 58 | R | 9.3 percent |
District 59 | R | 45.4 percent |
District 60 | R | 20.0 percent |
District 61 | R | 16.8 percent |
District 62 | R | Unopposed |
District 63 | D | Unopposed |
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 23 of the 63 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 15 Democrats and eight Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 40 (63.4 percent) of the 63 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Seven incumbents faced primary competition on September 13. Five incumbents did not seek re-election, one seat was vacant, and another 50 incumbents were set to advance past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Five incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 57 incumbents ran for re-election. One seat is vacant. The retiring incumbents—two Democrats and three Republicans—can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
Overall Competitiveness | |||
---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
% Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
% Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
% Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details New York's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
New York Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
9.9% | 15.1% | 58.2% | 27.7 | 28 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in New York in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[14]
New York State Senate Donations | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Candidates | Amount |
2014 | 136 | $43,219,580 |
2012 | 148 | $41,850,728 |
2010 | 133 | $48,059,743 |
2008 | 142 | $46,470,593 |
2006 | 118 | $34,038,836 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. New York, at $317,791 per candidate, is ranked six of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[14][15]
Qualifications
Article 3, Section 7 of the New York Constitution states: "No person shall serve as a member of the legislature unless he or she is a citizen of the United States and has been a resident of the state of New York for five years, and, except as hereinafter otherwise prescribed, of the assembly or senate district for the twelve months immediately preceding his or her election; if elected a senator or member of assembly at the first election next ensuing after a readjustment or alteration of the senate or assembly districts becomes effective, a person, to be eligible to serve as such, must have been a resident of the county in which the senate or assembly district is contained for the twelve months immediately preceding his or her election. No member of the legislature shall, during the time for which he or she was elected, receive any civil appointment from the governor, the governor and the senate, the legislature or from any city government, to an office which shall have been created, or the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ buffalonews.com, "Breakaway Democrats decide to stick with GOP in New York State Senate," January 2, 2017
- ↑ NY Times, "In Rebuke to Democrats, Voters Return Control of New York Senate to G.O.P.," accessed January 21, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
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- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "How a Trump debacle could affect the House and state legislatures," accessed August 24, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Democrats' path to possible Senate control begins on Long Island," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ Time Warner Cable News, "New York Democrats See Opportunity With State Republicans' Embrace of Trump," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 NY Daily News, "LOVETT: Donald Trump is Democrats’ new weapon in battle for control of New York Senate," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ Pramilla Malick ran on the Democratic line in the primary as a write-in candidate.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in New York," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.