Nebraska State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Nebraska Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | May 10, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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The officially nonpartisan Nebraska Unicameral maintained a Republican majority after the 2016 elections. Democrats did take three seats, altering the partisan balance slightly in the process.
A total of 25 seats out of the 49 seats in the Nebraska State Senate were up for election in 2016. Nebraska state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years. No significant changes occurred to political control in the state after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the Nebraska State Senate were held in 2016. The primary election took place on May 10, 2016. The general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was February 16, 2016, for incumbents. Challengers were required to file by March 1, 2016.[1]
Majority control
There are no formal party alignments or groups within the Nebraska State Senate. Coalitions tend to form issue-by-issue based on a member's philosophy of government, geographic background and constituency. However, almost all of the members of the legislature are affiliated with the state affiliate of either the Democratic or the Republican Party and both parties explicitly endorse candidates for legislative seats. Senators and candidates are listed as officially nonpartisan, but in most cases the individual has a direct party affiliation. As an example, in most cases if a sitting senator runs for Congress, the individual runs on either the Democratic or Republican line on the ballot.
For more information on how Ballotpedia determined the partisan affiliation for Nebraska senators, please click here.
Partisan breakdown
In the Nebraska Senate, 25 members are needed to pass a bill, 30 are needed for a filibuster or veto, and 33 are needed to override a Governor's veto. The following table described party affiliation of Nebraska state senators heading into the 2016 election.[2]
| Nebraska Unicameral | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 12 | 15 | |
| Republican Party | 35 | 32 | |
| Independent | 1 | 1 | |
| Libertarian Party | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 49 | 49 | |
2016 election competitiveness
Nebraska saw some improvement in general election competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Nebraska performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Nebraska State Senate, 4 of 14 incumbents (28.6%) faced primary opposition.
- All 11 incumbents that did not run for re-election in 2016 were barred by term limits.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Nebraska can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified four notable Nebraska Senate primary races in 2016.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Nebraska races »
Primary contests
- An incumbent appointed in August 2015 ran for a full-term against a former state senator in a Democratic district.
- ☐ Nicole Fox (Inc.) ☑ Tony Vargas ☑ John Synowiecki
- Four candidates vied for an open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Mark Elworth ☑ Jill Brown ☑ Justin Wayne ☐ Jake Seeman
- Three candidates vied for an open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Zachary Zoul ☑ Dan Quick ☑ Gregg Neuhaus
- Four candidates vied for an open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Karl Elmshaeuser ☐ Wendall Gaston ☑ Steve Erdman ☐ Peggy Popps
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Nebraska Senate general election candidates | ||
|---|---|---|
| District |  Nonpartisan
| |
| 1 | Dan Watermeier (I) 
| |
| 3 | Tommy Garrett: 7,476 (I) Carol Blood: 7,959
| |
| 5 | Mike McDonnell: 7,120 Gilbert Ayala: 3,028 | |
| 7 | Tony Vargas: 5,244 John Synowiecki: 3,248 | |
| 9 | Sara Howard: 10,552 (I) Larry Roland: 2,773 | |
| 11 | Ernie Chambers: 7,763 (I) John Sciara: 1,726 | |
| 13 | Jill Brown: 6,605 Justin Wayne: 6,920
| |
| 15 | David Schnoor: 7,189 (I) Lynne Walz: 7,601
| |
| 17 | Ardel Bengtson: 4,451 Joni Albrecht: 6,825
| |
| 19 | Jim Scheer (I)
| |
| 21 | Larry Scherer: 6,567 Mike Hilgers: 8,588
| |
| 23 | Jerry Johnson: 6,950 (I) Bruce Bostelman: 8,693
| |
| 25 | Jim Gordon: 10,258 Suzanne Geist: 12,899
| |
| 27 | Anna Wishart: 9,930 Dick Clark: 3,657 | |
| 29 | Kate Bolz: 14,281 (I) Melody Vaccaro: 2,936 | |
| 31 | Rick Kolowski: 9,762 (I) Ian Swanson: 8,985 | |
| 33 | Les Seiler: 6,053 (I) Steve Halloran: 9,164
| |
| 35 | Dan Quick: 5,743 Gregg Neuhaus: 5,668 | |
| 37 | Bob Lammers: 7,547 John Lowe: 8,600
| |
| 39 | Lou Ann Linehan: 11,729 Bill Armbrust: 9,646 | |
| 41 | Tom Briese
| |
| 43 | Al Davis: 8,376 (I) Tom Brewer: 9,169
| |
| 45 | Sue Crawford: 8,774 (I) Michael Cook: 6,734 | |
| 47 | Karl Elmshaeuser: 5,230 Steve Erdman: 10,739
| |
| 49 | John Murante (I)
| |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | |
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | ||
Primary election
Note: The top-two candidates in the primary election advanced to the general election.
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Nebraska State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 25 races in the Nebraska State Senate in 2016, 21 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 21.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Eight races saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Eight of the 21 contested races in 2016—38.1 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Six races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. |
Nebraska State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Margin of Victory District 3 3.1 percent District 13 2.3 percent District 15 2.8 percent District 31 4.1 percent District 35 0.7 percent District 37 6.5 percent District 39 9.7 percent District 43 4.5 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Nebraska State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. Eight incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the five winning Nebraska State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 41 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
Nebraska State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Total elections Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed 25 21.7 percent 8 41.0 percent 3 4 16.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Nebraska State Senate districts in 2016.
| Nebraska State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Margin of Victory | |
| District 1 | Unopposed | |
| District 3 | 3.1 percent | |
| District 5 | 40.3 percent | |
| District 7 | 23.5 percent | |
| District 9 | 58.4 percent | |
| District 11 | 63.6 percent | |
| District 13 | 2.3 percent | |
| District 15 | 2.8 percent | |
| District 17 | 21.1 percent | |
| District 19 | Unopposed | |
| District 21 | 13.3 percent | |
| District 23 | 11.1 percent | |
| District 25 | 11.4 percent | |
| District 27 | 46.2 percent | |
| District 29 | 65.9 percent | |
| District 31 | 4.1 percent | |
| District 33 | 20.4 percent | |
| District 35 | 0.7 percent | |
| District 37 | 6.5 percent | |
| District 39 | 9.8 percent | |
| District 41 | Unopposed | |
| District 43 | 4.5 percent | |
| District 45 | 13.2 percent | |
| District 47 | 34.5 percent | |
| District 49 | Unopposed | |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Nebraska elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Nebraska in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| December 1, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period for both incumbents and non-incumbents running in the primary election opens | |
| December 1, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period for both incumbents and non-incumbents running in the general election opens | |
| February 16, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period for incumbents running in the primary election closes | |
| March 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period for non-incumbents running in the primary election closes | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | First primary statement due | |
| May 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second primary statement due | |
| May 10, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary statement due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period for incumbents running in the general election closes | |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period for non-incumbents running in the general election closes | |
| October 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | First general statement due | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second general statement due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 17, 2017 | Campaign finance | Post-general statement due | |
| Sources: Nebraska Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings Information – 2016 Election," accessed July 1, 2015 Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission, "2016 Election Year – Candidate Brochure," June 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Unopposed candidates
In four of the 25 districts up for election in 2016, one candidate ran unopposed in the general election, guaranteeing election barring unforeseen circumstances. One of the four entirely unopposed candidates ran for an open seat.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on May 10, up from 2014, when just one senator faced primary competition. Seven other incumbents were on the ballot with one challenger, leaving them effectively unopposed in the top-two primary. The following incumbent was defeated in the primary election:
- District 7: Nicole Fox (R)
Retired incumbents
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Nebraska State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Nebraska voters approved Initiative 415 (2000). Under the terms of Initiative 415, Nebraska's senators can serve no more than two consecutive four-year terms in the state senate.
There are 49 Nebraska State Senators. In 2016, 11 current members were ineligible to run for the senate again in November.
The senators ineligible to run for re-election were:
Non-Partisan (11):
| Name | Current Office |
|---|---|
| Heath Mello | District 5 |
| Tanya Cook | District 13 |
| Dave Bloomfield | District 17 |
| Ken Haar | District 21 |
| Kathy Campbell | District 25 |
| Colby Coash | District 27 |
| Mike Gloor | District 35 |
| Galen Hadley | District 37 |
| Beau McCoy | District 39 |
| Kate Sullivan | District 41 |
| Ken Schilz | District 47 |
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Nebraska's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Nebraska Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 68.0% | 12.5% | 84.0% | 54.8 | 2 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Nebraska in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Nebraska State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 66 | $4,706,100 |
| 2012 | 71 | $4,233,454 |
| 2010 | 51 | $2,071,733 |
| 2008 | 74 | $3,324,642 |
| 2006 | 83 | $3,140,430 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Nebraska, at $71,305 per candidate, is ranked 27 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Nebraska State Senate, a candidate must be:[7]
- At least 21 years of age
- A resident of Nebraska, and specifically a resident of the legislative district he or she wishes to serve, for at least one year prior to the general election
- Must not have ever been convicted of a felony
See also
External links
- Nebraska Secretary of State - Primary candidate list
- Nebraska Secretary of State - Primary results
- Nebraska Secretary of State - General election candidate list
Footnotes
- ↑ Nebraska Secretary of State, "Official Election Calendar," accessed December 7, 2015
- ↑ Methodology of how political affiliation is determined can be seen here. Post-election partisan balance will be analyzed shortly after the election.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Nebraska," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Qualifications to serve in the Nebraska Legislature
