Kentucky House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Kentucky House Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | May 17, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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Republicans won control of the Kentucky House of Representatives for the first time since 1920, providing the GOP with a new trifecta in Kentucky. Republicans picked up 17 seats in the November general election, giving the GOP a 28-seat majority.
All 100 seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives were up for election in 2016.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Kentucky State House as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Kentucky House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on May 17, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was January 26, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Kentucky House of Representatives. The chamber was flipped by Republicans.
| Kentucky House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 53 | 36 | |
| Republican Party | 46 | 64 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Johnny Bell |  Democratic |
House District 23 |
| Lawrence Clark | Democratic |
House District 46 |
| Bob DeWeese |  Republican |
House District 48 |
| David Floyd | Republican |
House District 50 |
| W. Brad Montell | Republican |
House District 58 |
| Thomas Kerr | Republican |
House District 64 |
| Mitchel Denham Jr. | Democratic |
House District 70 |
| Leslie Combs | Democratic |
House District 94 |
2016 election competitiveness
Kentucky saw improvement in general election competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Kentucky performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Kentucky State Senate, there were 11 Democratic incumbents and 27 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Two primary challenges took place in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 53 Democratic incumbents and 47 Republican incumbents. Six state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were eight primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Kentucky can be found below.
Context of the 2016 elections
The Kentucky House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named House District 3, House District 20, and House District 99 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[3][4]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 8, House District 38, and House District 46 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]
In an effort to regain control of the chamber, Republicans fielded candidates in 91 of the 100 House districts. Rep. Jonathan Shell (R), the House GOP campaign chairman, said that "House Republicans accomplished our recruitment goals for 2016. We have candidates in every corner of the state, in nearly every district. We have inspiring candidates who will bring a new majority to the people’s House and who will govern this state the way Kentuckians deserve."[7]
Scott Jennings, a political operative who advised Republican candidates, said on Kentucky Democrats that, "The state of the Democratic Party is a crisis. It’s an emergency." The Democratic Party had been losing ground in Kentucky since the 2015 general election. In 2015, Republican Matt Bevin defeated Democrat Jack Conway by nine percentage points for the governorship. Bevin was only the second Republican governor of Kentucky in four decades. Republicans also took control of the state auditor and treasurer office, and Rep. Denny Butler and Rep. Jim Gooch, Jr. switched their party affiliation from Democratic to Republican.[8] In a 2015 special election, Republicans also flipped District 27 in the Kentucky Senate. Steve West (R) won the seat by almost 9 percentage points and Romney won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 24 percentage points.
As of June 30, 2016, the Kentucky Democratic Party had only $72,650 on hand, while the Kentucky GOP had $1.6 million on hand. Democrats spent heavily in the March 8, 2016, special elections to increase their House majority.[9]
2016 special elections
Before the general election in November, Republicans targeted four state House special elections on March 8, 2016, which were previously held by two Democrats and two Republicans.
In three of the four special elections, Republicans had "a collective 3-to-1 cash advantage on their Democratic opponents."[10] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) planned "a six-figure, multi-platform ad campaign" that tied the four Democratic candidates to President Barack Obama.[11] RSLC President Matt Walter said on the House special elections that, "Democrats don’t seem to have a clue. They lost important races last November after running out-of-touch candidates determined to implement Obama’s policies in Kentucky. They’ve since lost two state House representatives who switched to the Republican Party because of the Democrats’ commitment to the president’s failed agenda. And now they are trying the same play again by running four House candidates in the upcoming special elections who will be strong allies to the president and his extreme positions."[11]
Results: Republicans retained one seat in the special elections but lost District 62. Democrats increased their lead to a 53-47 majority in the House.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Kentucky House candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Michael Murphy: 5,963 | Steven Rudy: 14,046 (I)  |
|
| 2 | Jesse Wright: 7,647 | Richard Heath: 11,699 (I) |
|
| 3 | Gerald Watkins: 9,869 (I) |
Joni Hogancamp: 7,958 | |
| 4 | No candidate | Lynn Bechler: 15,065 (I) |
|
| 5 | David Ramey: 6,153 | Kenny Imes: 13,770 (I) |
|
| 6 | Will Coursey: 11,399 (I) |
Paula Robinson: 9,393 | David Watson: 972 (L) |
| 7 | Joy Gray: 7,750 | Suzanne Miles: 13,189 (I) |
|
| 8 | Jeffery Taylor: 6,103 (I) | Walker Thomas: 6,577 |
|
| 9 | No candidate | Myron Dossett: 11,425 (I) |
|
| 10 | Dean Schamore: 10,712 (I) |
T.W. Shortt: 8,698 | |
| 11 | David Watkins: 9,117 (I) | Robby Mills: 9,728 |
|
| 12 | Jim Townsend: 8,059 | Jim Gooch, Jr.: 12,711 (I) |
|
| 13 | James Glenn, Jr.: 8,170 (I) | D.J. Johnson: 8,434 |
|
| 14 | Tommy Thompson: 7,775 (I) | Matt Castlen: 13,554 |
|
| 15 | Brent Yonts: 7,973 (I) | Melinda Prunty: 10,597 |
|
| 16 | Martha King: 5,788 (I) | Jason Petrie: 10,938 |
|
| 17 | No candidate | Jim DeCesare: 17,761 (I) |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Tim Moore: 14,996 (I) |
|
| 19 | John Wayne Smith: 5,614 | Michael Meredith: 12,455 (I) |
|
| 20 | Jody Richards: 8,561 (I) |
Melinda Hill: 6,140 | |
| 21 | No candidate | Bart Rowland: 13,728 (I) |
|
| 22 | Wilson Stone: 12,115 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 23 | Danny J. Basil: 7,154 | Steve Riley: 11,445 |
|
| 24 | Terry Mills: 8,972 (I) | William Reed: 10,563 |
|
| 25 | Michael Dile: 5,187 | Jim DuPlessis: 13,629 (I) |
|
| 26 | No candidate | Russell Webber: 14,565 (I) |
|
| 27 | Jeff Greer: 9,056 (I) |
Rachelle Frazier: 7,763 | |
| 28 | Charles Miller: 8,953 (I) |
Michael Payne: 7,854 | |
| 29 | No candidate | Kevin Bratcher: 17,535 (I) |
|
| 30 | Thomas Burch: 12,678 (I) |
Waymen Eddings: 3,833 | |
| 31 | Steven Riggs: 12,085 (I) |
Sarah Provancher: 8,792 | |
| 32 | No candidate | Phil Moffett: 15,243 (I) |
|
| 33 | Rob Walker: 11,291 | Jason Nemes: 14,146 |
|
| 34 | Mary Lou Marzian: 19,596 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | Jim Wayne: 13,913 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 36 | No candidate | Jerry T. Miller: 21,458 (I) |
|
| 37 | Jeffery M. Donohue: 7,387 (I) |
Mark Wilson: 6,817 | |
| 38 | McKenzie Cantrell: 7,600 |
Denver "Denny" Butler: 7,341 (I) | |
| 39 | Russ Meyer: 10,839 (I) |
Robert Gullette: 8,572 | |
| 40 | Dennis Horlander: 11,038 (I) |
George Demic: 3,970 | |
| 41 | Attica Scott: 13,257 |
No candidate | |
| 42 | Reginald Meeks: 15,896 (I) |
James Howland: 2,320 | |
| 43 | Darryl Owens: 13,173 (I) |
John M. Owen: 4,120 | |
| 44 | Joni Jenkins: 13,538 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 45 | Pam Sigler: 9,991 | Stan Lee: 15,375 (I) |
|
| 46 | Alan Gentry: 9,939 |
Eric Crump: 8,032 | |
| 47 | Rick Rand: 13,033 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 48 | Maria Sorolis: 11,304 | Ken Fleming: 15,097 |
|
| 49 | Linda Belcher: 9,186 (I) | Dan Johnson: 9,342 |
|
| 50 | James DeWeese: 7,457 | Chad McCoy: 13,048 |
|
| 51 | No candidate | John Carney: 16,344 (I) |
|
| 52 | No candidate | Ken Upchurch: 13,376 (I) |
|
| 53 | James Sargent: 6,127 | James A. Tipton: 16,091 (I) |
|
| 54 | Bill Noelker: 6,245 | Daniel Elliott: 12,607 (I) |
|
| 55 | Tobie Brown: 5,597 | Kim King: 16,797 (I) |
|
| 56 | James L. Kay II: 12,590 (I) |
Daniel Fister: 8,525 | |
| 57 | Derrick Graham: 15,747 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 58 | Cyndi Skellie: 7,894 | Rob Rothenburger: 12,527 |
|
| 59 | No candidate | David Osborne: 19,159 (I) |
|
| 60 | No candidate | Sal Santoro: 19,737 (I) |
|
| 61 | Kevin Napier: 4,959 | Brian E. Linder: 15,373 (I) |
|
| 62 | Chuck Tackett: 9,288 (I) | Phillip Pratt: 12,662 |
|
| 63 | No candidate | Diane St. Onge: 18,728 (I) |
|
| 64 | Lucas Deaton: 6,807 | Kimberly Moser: 15,220 |
|
| 65 | Arnold Simpson: 10,099 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 66 | No candidate | Addia Wuchner: 18,743 (I) |
|
| 67 | Dennis Keene: 9,232 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 68 | No candidate | Joseph Fischer: 20,003 (I) |
|
| 69 | No candidate | Adam Koenig: 13,892 (I) |
|
| 70 | John Sims, Jr.: 10,049 |
John VanMeter: 7,839 | |
| 71 | No candidate | Jonathan Shell: 16,951 (I) |
|
| 72 | Sannie Overly: 9,668 (I) |
Curtis Kenimer: 8,154 | |
| 73 | John Hendricks: 7,464 | Donna Mayfield: 11,385 (I) |
|
| 74 | James Davis: 8,142 | David Hale: 10,894 (I) |
|
| 75 | Kelly Flood: 9,816 (I) |
Gary McCollum: 6,116 | |
| 76 | Ruth Ann Palumbo: 15,028 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 77 | George A. Brown Jr.: 13,245 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 78 | Thomas McKee: 7,562 (I) | Mark Hart: 9,035 |
|
| 79 | Susan Westrom: 11,909 (I) |
Ken Kearns: 8,155 | |
| 80 | No candidate | David Meade: 13,698 (I) |
|
| 81 | Rita Smart: 8,980 (I) | C. Wesley Morgan: 9,056 |
|
| 82 | Bill Conn: 3,639 | Regina Bunch: 13,265 (I) |
|
| 83 | No candidate | Jeffrey Hoover: 16,813 (I) |
|
| 84 | Fitz Steele: 6,012 (I) | Chris Fugate: 10,278 |
|
| 85 | No candidate | Thomas Turner: 15,858 (I) |
|
| 86 | No candidate | Jim Stewart, III: 14,497 (I) |
|
| 87 | Rick Nelson: 7,224 (I) |
Chad Shannon: 6,804 | |
| 88 | No candidate | Robert J. Benvenuti III: 20,242 (I) |
|
| 89 | No candidate | Marie Rader: 15,479 (I) |
|
| 90 | No candidate | Tim Couch: 12,758 (I) |
|
| 91 | Cluster Howard: 7,161 (I) | Toby Herald: 8,828 |
|
| 92 | John Short: 7,287 (I) | John Blanton: 7,745 |
|
| 93 | Chris Harris: 7,363 (I) |
Norma Kirk-McCormick: 6,968 | |
| 94 | Angie Hatton: 8,393 |
Frank Justice II: 8,153 | |
| 95 | Greg Stumbo: 8,466 (I) | Larry Brown: 9,528 |
|
| 96 | Josh McGuire: 6,760 | Jill York: 9,353 (I) |
|
| 97 | Hubert Collins: 6,978 (I) | William Wells: 9,525 |
|
| 98 | Lew Nicholls: 8,330 (I) | Danny Bentley: 9,823 |
|
| 99 | Rocky Adkins: 11,143 (I) |
Wendy Fletcher: 5,741 | |
| 100 | Kevin Sinnette: 9,215 (I) |
Eric Chaney: 9,055 | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Primary contests
Ballotpedia identified four notable Kentucky state primary races in 2016, three of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Kentucky races »
State House District 23 (R) and (D)
- Two Democrats and two Republicans vied for the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- Steve Riley (R) ☐ Freddie Joe Wilkerson (R)
- Danny J. Basil (D) ☐ Joe Trigg (D)
State House District 94 (R) and (D)
- Two Democrats and four Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Wesley Doughman (R) ☐ Colin Fultz (R) Frank Justice II (R) ☐ Charles Wheeler (R)
- Angie Hatton (D) ☐ Joe Thornbury (D)
- Two first-time candidates competed in the Republican primary contest to face the Democratic incumbent.
- Wendy Fletcher ☐ Randy Smith
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Kentucky House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 100 races in the Kentucky House of Representatives in 2016, 64 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 20.5 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[12]
| Republican candidates in the Kentucky House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 64 races. In the 39 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.1 percent. Democrats won 36 races in 2016. In the 25 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.2 percent. |
| Democratic candidates and Republican candidates each won 10 races with margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 20 of the 64 contested races in 2016—31.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. 12 races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Each party won 10 races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Kentucky House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 6 D 9.2 percent District 8 R 3.7 percent District 11 R 3.2 percent District 13 R 1.6 percent District 24 R 8.1 percent District 27 D 7.7 percent District 28 D 6.5 percent District 37 D 4.0 percent District 38 D 1.7 percent District 49 R 0.8 percent District 72 D 8.5 percent District 78 R 8.9 percent District 81 R 0.4 percent District 87 D 3.0 percent District 92 R 3.0 percent District 93 D 2.8 percent District 94 D 1.5 percent District 95 R 5.9 percent District 98 R 8.2 percent District 100 D 0.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Kentucky House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 72 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 37 winning Kentucky House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 26.2 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Kentucky House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 41 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 16 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 33.8 percent. 31 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 21 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.4 percent. |
Kentucky House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[13] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[13] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 36 18.2 percent 31 20.4 percent 10 11 30.6 percent Republican 64 22.1 percent 41 33.8 percent 25 25 39.1 percent Total 100 20.5 percent 72 26.2 percent 35 36 36.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Kentucky House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Kentucky House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 40.4 percent |
| District 2 | R | 20.9 percent |
| District 3 | D | 10.7 percent |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | 38.2 percent |
| District 6 | D | 9.2 percent |
| District 7 | R | 26.0 percent |
| District 8 | R | 3.7 percent |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | 10.4 percent |
| District 11 | R | 3.2 percent |
| District 12 | R | 22.4 percent |
| District 13 | R | 1.6 percent |
| District 14 | R | 27.1 percent |
| District 15 | R | 14.1 percent |
| District 16 | R | 30.8 percent |
| District 17 | R | Unopposed |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 19 | R | 37.9 percent |
| District 20 | D | 16.5 percent |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | 23.1 percent |
| District 24 | R | 8.1 percent |
| District 25 | R | 44.9 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | D | 7.7 percent |
| District 28 | D | 6.5 percent |
| District 29 | R | Unopposed |
| District 30 | D | 53.6 percent |
| District 31 | D | 15.8 percent |
| District 32 | R | Unopposed |
| District 33 | R | 11.2 percent |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 36 | R | Unopposed |
| District 37 | D | 4.0 percent |
| District 38 | D | 1.7 percent |
| District 39 | D | 11.7 percent |
| District 40 | D | 47.1 percent |
| District 41 | D | Unopposed |
| District 42 | D | 74.5 percent |
| District 43 | D | 52.4 percent |
| District 44 | D | Unopposed |
| District 45 | R | 21.2 percent |
| District 46 | D | 10.6 percent |
| District 47 | D | Unopposed |
| District 48 | R | 14.4 percent |
| District 49 | R | 0.8 percent |
| District 50 | R | 27.3 percent |
| District 51 | R | Unopposed |
| District 52 | R | Unopposed |
| District 53 | R | 44.9 percent |
| District 54 | R | 33.8 percent |
| District 55 | R | 50.0 percent |
| District 56 | D | 19.3 percent |
| District 57 | D | Unopposed |
| District 58 | R | 22.7 percent |
| District 59 | R | Unopposed |
| District 60 | R | Unopposed |
| District 61 | R | 51.2 percent |
| District 62 | R | 15.4 percent |
| District 63 | R | Unopposed |
| District 64 | R | 38.2 percent |
| District 65 | D | Unopposed |
| District 66 | R | Unopposed |
| District 67 | D | Unopposed |
| District 68 | R | Unopposed |
| District 69 | R | Unopposed |
| District 70 | D | 12.4 percent |
| District 71 | R | Unopposed |
| District 72 | D | 8.5 percent |
| District 73 | R | 20.8 percent |
| District 74 | R | 14.5 percent |
| District 75 | D | 23.2 percent |
| District 76 | D | Unopposed |
| District 77 | D | Unopposed |
| District 78 | R | 8.9 percent |
| District 79 | D | 18.7 percent |
| District 80 | R | Unopposed |
| District 81 | R | 0.4 percent |
| District 82 | R | 57.0 percent |
| District 83 | R | Unopposed |
| District 84 | R | 26.2 percent |
| District 85 | R | Unopposed |
| District 86 | R | Unopposed |
| District 87 | D | 3.0 percent |
| District 88 | R | Unopposed |
| District 89 | R | Unopposed |
| District 90 | R | Unopposed |
| District 91 | R | 10.4 percent |
| District 92 | R | 3.1 percent |
| District 93 | D | 2.8 percent |
| District 94 | D | 1.5 percent |
| District 95 | R | 5.9 percent |
| District 96 | R | 16.1 percent |
| District 97 | R | 15.4 percent |
| District 98 | R | 8.2 percent |
| District 99 | D | 32.0 percent |
| District 100 | D | 0.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Kentucky elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Kentucky in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 26, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline for candidates running in the primary election | |
| April 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent, political organization and political group candidates to file statements of candidacy (federal candidates and municipal candidates of cities in the second to sixth classes) | |
| August 9, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate deadline for filing petitions, certificates, or statements | |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | 32-day pre-primary report due | |
| May 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | 15-day pre-primary report due | |
| May 17, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-primary report due | |
| July 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 60-day post-primary report due | |
| October 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | 32-day pre-general report due | |
| October 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | 15-day pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-general report due | |
| January 7, 2017 | Campaign finance | 60-day post-general report due | |
| Sources: Kentucky State Board of Elections, "2016 Kentucky Election Calendar," accessed June 12, 2016 Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, "Candidate Reporting Dates," accessed June 12, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 34 of the 100 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of nine Democrats and twenty-five Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 66 (66.0 percent) of the 100 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Fifteen incumbents, seven Democrats and eight Republicans, faced primary competition on May 17. Eight incumbents did not seek re-election and another 77 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 92 ran for re-election. A list of the incumbents who did not run, four Republicans and four Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index — the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates — showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Kentucky's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Kentucky General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 9.2% | 13.0% | 49.6% | 23.9 | 35 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Kentucky in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[14]
| Kentucky House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 184 | $11,435,100 |
| 2012 | 186 | $9,749,693 |
| 2010 | 186 | $7,426,944 |
| 2008 | 165 | $6,906,554 |
| 2006 | 182 | $6,498,418 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Kentucky, at $62,147 per candidate, is ranked 15 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[14][15]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Kentucky House of Representatives, a candidate must be:[16]
- At least 24 years of age at the time of the election
- A citizen of Kentucky
- A resident of the state 2 years preceding the election
- A resident of the district for the last year
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Courier-Journal," Rep. Jim Gooch latest Democrat to switch to GOP," accessed February 10, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Lexington Herald Leader, "Republicans field candidates in 91 of 100 House elections," accessed February 18, 2016
- ↑ WFPL News, "State Rep. Butler of Louisville Switches To Republican Party," accessed November 19, 2015
- ↑ Courier-Journal, "Ky Democrats lag far behind GOP in money," accessed August 4, 2016
- ↑ mycn2.com, "GOP holds financial advantages in special House elections less than a month before voters hit the polls," accessed February 18, 2016
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Republican State Leadership Committee, "National GOP group pours money into special House races," accessed February 18, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Kentucky," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State, "Becoming a Candidate," accessed August 21, 2014
