Connecticut House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Connecticut House Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 9, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 151 seats in the Connecticut House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained eight seats in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the Connecticut House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 9, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 7, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Connecticut House of Representatives:
| Connecticut House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 86 | 79 | |
| Republican Party | 64 | 72 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 151 | 151 | |
Incumbents retiring
Twenty incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Carter |  Republican |
House District 2 |
| Bill Aman | Republican |
House District 14 |
| Brian Becker |  Democratic |
House District 19 |
| Ed Jutila | Democratic |
House District 37 |
| Paul Brycki | Democratic |
House District 45 |
| Mike Alberts | Republican |
House District 50 |
| Gayle Mulligan | Republican |
House District 55 |
| Claire Janowski | Democratic |
House District 56 |
| David William Kiner | Democratic |
House District 59 |
| Peggy Sayers | Democratic |
House District 60 |
| Roberta Willis | Democratic |
House District 64 |
| Craig Miner | Republican |
House District 66 |
| Cecilia Buck-Taylor | Republican |
House District 67 |
| Selim Noujaim | Republican |
House District 74 |
| Frank Nicastro, Sr. | Democratic |
House District 79 |
| J. Brendan Sharkey | Democratic |
House District 88 |
| Robert Megna | Democratic |
House District 97 |
| Al Adinolfi | Republican |
House District 103 |
| John Shaban | Republican |
House District 135 |
| Janice Giegler | Republican |
House District 138 |
Note: District 90 was vacant.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified eight notable Connecticut state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Connecticut races »
General election contests
- A Democratic candidate and Green Party candidate targeted the freshman Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Kathleen McCarty (R) (Inc.) ☐ Sharon Palmer (D) ☐ Lauren Shaw (G)
- A Democratic candidate targeted the freshman Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Aundré Bumgardner (Inc.) ☑ Joe de la Cruz
- A Republican candidate targeted the Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Bob Godfrey (Inc.) ☐ Emanuela Palmares
- A Democratic candidate targeted the freshman Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Charles Ferraro (Inc.) ☐ Sean Ronan
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
| 2016 Connecticut House primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 39 | Ernest Hewett: 513 (I) Chris Soto: 994  |
- | |
| 63 | - | Jay Case: 689 (I) David LaPointe: 336 |
|
| 77 | Laura Bartok: 704 Christy Matthews: 157 |
- | |
| 88 | James Pascarella: 812 Joshua Elliott: 1,053 |
- | |
| 113 | - | Jason Perillo: 1,054 (I) Ruth Parkins: 108 |
|
| 116 | Michael DiMassa: 567 Louis Esposito: 545 (I) |
- | |
| 124 | Andre Baker: 643 (I) Charles Coviello Jr.: 289 |
- | |
| 126 | Charlie Stallworth: 929 (I) Maria Pereira: 845 |
- | |
| 146 | Terry B. Adams: 499 (I) Dan Dauplaise: 263 |
- | |
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Connecticut House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 151 races in the Connecticut House of Representatives in 2016, 115 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 29.9 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Connecticut House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 79 races. In the 63 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 34.1 percent. Republicans won 72 races in 2016. In the 52 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.7 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Twenty-eight of the 115 contested races in 2016—24.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Twelve races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won 16 races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Connecticut House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 2 R 2.4 percent District 13 R 2.3 percent District 14 R 5.2 percent District 16 D 2.1 percent District 19 D 7.7 percent District 21 D 6.8 percent District 27 R 7.8 percent District 28 D 6.1 percent District 30 D 3.7 percent District 36 R 2.3 percent District 40 D 8.5 percent District 41 D 9.6 percent District 50 D 9.4 percent District 53 R 0.4 percent District 56 D 3.5 percent District 58 R 7.2 percent District 59 R 8.2 percent District 60 R 6.9 percent District 65 D 2.6 percent District 73 D 3.9 percent District 77 R 5.6 percent District 79 D 8.3 percent District 83 D 1.6 percent District 99 D 0.1 percent District 103 D 0.8 percent District 118 D 8.5 percent District 135 R 6.6 percent District 138 R 8.0 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Connecticut House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. One hundred twenty incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 86 winning Connecticut House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 34.9 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Connecticut House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Sixty-eight Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 53 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 36.7 percent. Fifty-two Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 33 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.9 percent. |
Connecticut House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 79 34.1 percent 68 36.7 percent 15 16 20.3 percent Republican 72 24.7 percent 52 31.9 percent 19 20 27.8 percent Total 151 29.9 percent 120 34.9 percent 34 36 23.8 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Connecticut House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Connecticut House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 84.1 percent |
| District 2 | R | 2.4 percent |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | D | 74.2 percent |
| District 5 | D | 63.8 percent |
| District 6 | D | 78.2 percent |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | 31.2 percent |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | 50.2 percent |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | 22.4 percent |
| District 13 | R | 2.3 percent |
| District 14 | R | 5.2 percent |
| District 15 | D | Unopposed |
| District 16 | D | 2.1 percent |
| District 17 | R | Unopposed |
| District 18 | D | 29.7 percent |
| District 19 | D | 7.7 percent |
| District 20 | D | Unopposed |
| District 21 | D | 6.8 percent |
| District 22 | R | 20.1 percent |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 24 | D | 29.2 percent |
| District 25 | D | 64.3 percent |
| District 26 | D | 44.6 percent |
| District 27 | R | 7.8 percent |
| District 28 | D | 6.1 percent |
| District 29 | D | 24.7 percent |
| District 30 | D | 3.7 percent |
| District 31 | R | 36.5 percent |
| District 32 | R | 30.6 percent |
| District 33 | D | 15.5 percent |
| District 34 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | 22.2 percent |
| District 36 | R | 2.3 percent |
| District 37 | R | 12.2 percent |
| District 38 | R | 14.2 percent |
| District 39 | D | 83.5 percent |
| District 40 | D | 8.5 percent |
| District 41 | D | 9.6 percent |
| District 42 | R | Unopposed |
| District 43 | D | 23.0 percent |
| District 44 | R | 20.7 percent |
| District 45 | R | 24.8 percent |
| District 46 | D | 12.7 percent |
| District 47 | R | 19.7 percent |
| District 48 | D | 11.9 percent |
| District 49 | D | 31.4 percent |
| District 50 | D | 9.5 percent |
| District 51 | D | 15.9 percent |
| District 52 | R | 21.7 percent |
| District 53 | R | 0.4 percent |
| District 54 | D | 50.6 percent |
| District 55 | R | Unopposed |
| District 56 | D | 3.5 percent |
| District 57 | R | Unopposed |
| District 58 | R | 7.2 percent |
| District 59 | R | 8.2 percent |
| District 60 | R | 6.9 percent |
| District 61 | R | 29.2 percent |
| District 62 | R | Unopposed |
| District 63 | R | Unopposed |
| District 64 | R | 12.3 percent |
| District 65 | D | 2.6 percent |
| District 66 | R | 17.6 percent |
| District 67 | R | 17.9 percent |
| District 68 | R | Unopposed |
| District 69 | R | Unopposed |
| District 70 | R | Unopposed |
| District 71 | R | 59.8 percent |
| District 72 | D | 67.4 percent |
| District 73 | D | 3.9 percent |
| District 74 | R | 10.9 percent |
| District 75 | D | 54.5 percent |
| District 76 | R | 41.7 percent |
| District 77 | R | 5.6 percent |
| District 78 | R | 26.0 percent |
| District 79 | D | 8.3 percent |
| District 80 | R | Unopposed |
| District 81 | R | 18.3 percent |
| District 82 | D | Unopposed |
| District 83 | D | 1.6 percent |
| District 84 | D | 71.8 percent |
| District 85 | D | 15.0 percent |
| District 86 | R | 72.3 percent |
| District 87 | R | 49.8 percent |
| District 88 | D | 24.4 percent |
| District 89 | R | Unopposed |
| District 90 | R | 18.4 percent |
| District 91 | D | 42.3 percent |
| District 92 | D | Unopposed |
| District 93 | D | 89.2 percent |
| District 94 | D | Unopposed |
| District 95 | D | Unopposed |
| District 96 | D | Unopposed |
| District 97 | D | Unopposed |
| District 98 | D | Unopposed |
| District 99 | D | 0.1 percent |
| District 100 | D | 38.8 percent |
| District 101 | R | Unopposed |
| District 102 | D | 15.2 percent |
| District 103 | D | 0.8 percent |
| District 104 | D | 14.1 percent |
| District 105 | R | 14.6 percent |
| District 106 | R | 14.9 percent |
| District 107 | R | Unopposed |
| District 108 | R | Unopposed |
| District 109 | D | 30.5 percent |
| District 110 | D | 24.8 percent |
| District 111 | R | 25.7 percent |
| District 112 | R | Unopposed |
| District 113 | R | 45.7 percent |
| District 114 | R | 70.3 percent |
| District 115 | D | 41.6 percent |
| District 116 | D | 46.8 percent |
| District 117 | R | 13.2 percent |
| District 118 | D | 8.5 percent |
| District 119 | R | 18.1 percent |
| District 120 | R | 25.4 percent |
| District 121 | D | Unopposed |
| District 122 | R | 72.4 percent |
| District 123 | R | 22.9 percent |
| District 124 | D | 79.5 percent |
| District 125 | R | 75.6 percent |
| District 126 | D | 66.7 percent |
| District 127 | D | 52.9 percent |
| District 128 | D | 72.8 percent |
| District 129 | D | 58.7 percent |
| District 130 | D | 75.8 percent |
| District 131 | R | 37.0 percent |
| District 132 | R | 19.9 percent |
| District 133 | D | 18.2 percent |
| District 134 | R | 20.7 percent |
| District 135 | R | 6.6 percent |
| District 136 | D | 15.3 percent |
| District 137 | D | 34.6 percent |
| District 138 | R | 8.1 percent |
| District 139 | D | 25.5 percent |
| District 140 | D | Unopposed |
| District 141 | R | 37.3 percent |
| District 142 | R | 62.3 percent |
| District 143 | R | Unopposed |
| District 144 | D | 34.1 percent |
| District 145 | D | 62.0 percent |
| District 146 | D | 37.3 percent |
| District 147 | D | Unopposed |
| District 148 | D | 44.8 percent |
| District 149 | R | Unopposed |
| District 150 | R | Unopposed |
| District 151 | R | 20.7 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Connecticut elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Connecticut in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | January 10 filing | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | April 10 filing | |
| June 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Primary petitions due for state and district office candidates | |
| July 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | July 10 filing | |
| July 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | First weekly supplemental filing, primary | |
| July 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second weekly supplemental filing, primary | |
| August 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7th day preceding primary filing | |
| August 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final weekly supplemental filing, primary | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| August 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Nominating petitions due for new party or no party candidates | |
| September 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30th day following primary filing | |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | October 10 filing | |
| October 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | First weekly supplemental filing, general election | |
| October 25, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates | |
| October 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second weekly supplemental filing, general election | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7th day preceding general election filing | |
| November 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final weekly supplemental filing, general election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | January 10 filing | |
| Sources: Connecticut Secretary of State, "November, 8 2016 State Election Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 Connecticut State Elections Enforcement Commission, "2016 Filing Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 Connecticut Secretary of State, "Registration for Write-in Candidacy," accessed October 10, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 41 of the 151 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 26 Republicans and 18 Democrats were guaranteed election, barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 110 (76%) of the 151 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Seven incumbents faced primary competition on August 9. Twenty incumbents did not seek re-election, one seat is vacant, and another 123 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary election:
- District 39: Ernest Hewett (D)
- District 116: Louis Esposito (D)
Retired incumbents
Twenty incumbents did not run for re-election, while 130 ran for re-election. One seat is vacant in District 90. A list of those retiring incumbents, ten Democrats and ten Republicans, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Connecticut's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Connecticut General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 12.8% | 5.5% | 71.7% | 30.0 | 23 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Connecticut in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Connecticut House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 319 | $7,115,873 |
| 2012 | 302 | $7,079,192 |
| 2010 | 311 | $6,970,708 |
| 2008 | 304 | $5,565,584 |
| 2006 | 297 | $4,162,088 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Connecticut, at $22,307 per candidate, is ranked 32 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article III, Section 4 of the Connecticut Constitution states: "The house of representatives shall consist of not less than one hundred twenty-five and not more than two hundred twenty-five members, each of whom shall be an elector residing in the assembly district from which he is elected. Each assembly district shall be contiguous as to territory and shall elect no more than one representative. For the purpose of forming assembly districts no town shall be divided except for the purpose of forming assembly districts wholly within the town."
See also
- Connecticut House of Representatives
- Connecticut State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2016
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Connecticut," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
