Connecticut State Senate elections, 2016
 |
Presidential • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State Senate • State House • Local judges • School boards • Candidate ballot access |
 |
| 2016 Connecticut Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | August 9, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
All 36 seats in the Connecticut State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans flipped three seats to split the chamber at 18 seats a piece for both Democrats and Republicans. Even though the chamber was tied following the 2016 general election, Democrats did not lose their state government trifecta because Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) was the tie-breaker vote in the chamber.
Introduction
Elections for the Connecticut State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 9, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 7, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Connecticut State Senate:
| Connecticut State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 21 | 18[2] | |
| Republican Party | 15 | 18 | |
| Total | 36 | 36 | |
Incumbents retiring
Two incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Maynard |  Democratic |
Senate District 18 |
| Clark Chapin |  Republican |
Senate District 30 |
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified eight notable Connecticut state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Connecticut races »
General election contests
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.
- ☐ Danté Bartolomeo (Inc.) ☑ Len Suzio
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a swing district.
- ☐ Joseph Crisco (Inc.) ☑ George Logan
- A Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate competed for the open seat vacated by a Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Timothy Bowles ☑ Heather Somers
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Mae Flexer (Inc.) ☐ John French
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Connecticut Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | John Fonfara: 20,437 (I)  |
Barbara Ruhe: 6,052 | Barbara Barry: 829 (G) |
| 2 | Eric Coleman: 30,772 (I) |
Theresa Tillett: 5,888 | |
| 3 | Timothy Larson: 23,913 (I) |
Carolyn Mirek: 18,650 | |
| 4 | Steve Cassano: 24,146 (I) |
Lorraine Marchetti: 23,557 | |
| 5 | Beth Bye: 30,655 (I) |
Mark Merritt: 21,128 | |
| 6 | Terry Gerratana: 19,683 (I) |
Charles Paonessa: 10,788 | |
| 7 | Annie Hornish: 18,388 | John Kissel: 28,651 (I) |
|
| 8 | David Pena: 18,204 | Kevin Witkos: 32,839 (I) |
|
| 9 | Paul Doyle: 29,684 (I) |
Earle Roberts: 17,213 | |
| 10 | Gary Holder-Winfield (I) |
No candidate | |
| 11 | Martin Looney (I) |
No candidate | |
| 12 | Ted Kennedy, Jr.: 32,089 (I) |
Bruce Wilson: 21,208 | |
| 13 | Dante Bartolomeo: 20,866 (I) | Len Suzio: 21,761 |
|
| 14 | Gayle Slossberg: 26,549 (I) |
Pat Libero: 20,836 | |
| 15 | Joan Hartley: 20,312 (I) |
No candidate | James K. Russell: 4,407 (Ind.) |
| 16 | Ryan Rogers: 17,966 | Joe Markley: 29,610 (I) |
|
| 17 | Joseph Crisco: 20,769 (I) | George Logan: 21,602 |
|
| 18 | Timothy Bowles: 18,447 | Heather Somers: 24,795 |
|
| 19 | Catherine Osten: 24,614 (I) |
Barbara Crouch: 17,452 | |
| 20 | Ryan Henowitz: 17,761 | Paul Formica: 26,501 (I) |
|
| 21 | Prez Palmer: 16,561 | Kevin C. Kelly: 30,966 (I) |
|
| 22 | Marilyn Moore: 22,271 (I) |
Elaine Hammers: 16,885 | |
| 23 | Edwin Gomes: 19,689 (I) |
Mike Garrett: 2,583 | |
| 24 | Kenneth Gucker: 18,745 | Michael McLachlan: 20,501 (I) |
|
| 25 | Bob Duff: 26,509 (I) |
Gregory Ehlers: 18,470 | |
| 26 | Carol Anne Curry: 22,898 | Antonietta Boucher: 34,627 (I) |
|
| 27 | Carlo Leone: 24,149 (I) |
Gino Bottino: 11,993 | Cora Santaguida: 874 (G) |
| 28 | Philip Dwyer: 21,441 | Tony Hwang: 32,659 (I) |
|
| 29 | Mae Flexer: 22,180 (I) |
John French: 18,280 | |
| 30 | David Lawson: 21,042 | Craig Miner: 26,676 |
|
| 31 | Michael Nicastro: 18,053 | Henri Martin: 27,162 (I) |
|
| 32 | Greg Cava: 17,099 | Robert Kane: 33,090 (I) |
|
| 33 | Norm Needleman: 22,954 | Art Linares: 31,594 (I) |
Colin Bennett: 954 (G) |
| 34 | No candidate | Leonard Fasano (I) |
|
| 35 | Arlene Avery: 19,199 | Anthony Guglielmo: 31,829 (I) |
|
| 36 | John Blankley: 19,291 | Scott Frantz: 28,901 (I) |
Ed Heflin: 811 (G) |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Connecticut Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 6 | Terry Gerratana: 2,425 (I) Sharon Beloin-Saavedra: 1,199 |
- | |
| 22 | Thomas McCarthy: 1,546 Marilyn Moore: 2,689 (I) |
- | |
| 23 | Dennis Bradley: 1,684 Edwin Gomes: 1,938 (I) |
- | |
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Connecticut State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 36 races in the Connecticut State Senate in 2016, 33 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 23.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the Connecticut State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 18 races. In the 16 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.6 percent. Republicans won 18 races in 2016. In the 17 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.4 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Five of the 33 contested races in 2016—15.2 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Connecticut State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 4 D 1.2 percent District 13 R 2.1 percent District 17 R 2.0 percent District 24 R 4.5 percent District 29 D 9.6 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Connecticut State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Thirty-two incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 29 winning Connecticut State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 26.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Connecticut State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Eighteen Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 16 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.6 percent. Fourteen Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 13 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 21.7 percent. |
Connecticut State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 18 29.6 percent 18 29.6 percent 2 2 11.1 percent Republican 18 18.4 percent 14 21.7 percent 1 1 5.6 percent Total 36 23.8 percent 32 26.1 percent 3 3 8.3 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Connecticut State Senate districts in 2016.
| Connecticut State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 52.7 percent |
| District 2 | D | 67.9 percent |
| District 3 | D | 12.4 percent |
| District 4 | D | 1.2 percent |
| District 5 | D | 18.4 percent |
| District 6 | D | 29.2 percent |
| District 7 | R | 21.8 percent |
| District 8 | R | 28.7 percent |
| District 9 | D | 26.6 percent |
| District 10 | D | Unopposed |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | 20.4 percent |
| District 13 | R | 2.1 percent |
| District 14 | D | 12.1 percent |
| District 15 | D | 64.3 percent |
| District 16 | R | 24.5 percent |
| District 17 | R | 2.0 percent |
| District 18 | R | 14.7 percent |
| District 19 | D | 17.0 percent |
| District 20 | R | 19.8 percent |
| District 21 | R | 30.3 percent |
| District 22 | D | 13.8 percent |
| District 23 | D | 76.8 percent |
| District 24 | R | 4.5 percent |
| District 25 | D | 17.9 percent |
| District 26 | R | 20.4 percent |
| District 27 | D | 32.8 percent |
| District 28 | R | 20.7 percent |
| District 29 | D | 9.6 percent |
| District 30 | R | 11.8 percent |
| District 31 | R | 20.2 percent |
| District 32 | R | 31.9 percent |
| District 33 | R | 15.6 percent |
| District 34 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | 24.8 percent |
| District 36 | R | 19.6 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Connecticut elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Connecticut in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | January 10 filing | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | April 10 filing | |
| June 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Primary petitions due for state and district office candidates | |
| July 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | July 10 filing | |
| July 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | First weekly supplemental filing, primary | |
| July 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second weekly supplemental filing, primary | |
| August 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7th day preceding primary filing | |
| August 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final weekly supplemental filing, primary | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| August 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Nominating petitions due for new party or no party candidates | |
| September 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30th day following primary filing | |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | October 10 filing | |
| October 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | First weekly supplemental filing, general election | |
| October 25, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates | |
| October 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second weekly supplemental filing, general election | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7th day preceding general election filing | |
| November 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final weekly supplemental filing, general election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | January 10 filing | |
| Sources: Connecticut Secretary of State, "November, 8 2016 State Election Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 Connecticut State Elections Enforcement Commission, "2016 Filing Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 Connecticut Secretary of State, "Registration for Write-in Candidacy," accessed October 10, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 4 of the 36 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of three Democrats and one Republican were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 32 (89%) of the 36 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Three incumbents faced primary competition on August 9. Two incumbents did not seek re-election and another 31 incumbents are advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Two incumbents did not run for re-election, while 34 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Republican and one Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Connecticut's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Connecticut General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 12.8% | 5.5% | 71.7% | 30.0 | 23 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Connecticut in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Connecticut State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 80 | $6,452,477 |
| 2012 | 77 | $6,089,049 |
| 2010 | 78 | $5,011,069 |
| 2008 | 79 | $5,351,022 |
| 2006 | 73 | $3,989,412 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Connecticut, at $80,656 per candidate, is ranked 25 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article III, Section 3 of the Connecticut Constitution states: The senate shall consist of not less than thirty and not more than fifty members, each of whom shall be an elector residing in the senatorial district from which he is elected. Each senatorial district shall be contiguous as to territory and shall elect no more than one senator.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Tie-breaking votes are cast by the lieutenant governor.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Connecticut," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
