Rhode Island State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Rhode Island Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | September 13, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 38 seats in the Rhode Island State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained one seat in the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the Rhode Island State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on September 13, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 29, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Rhode Island State Senate:
| Rhode Island State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 32 | 33 | |
| Republican Party | 5 | 5 | |
| Independent | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 38 | 38 | |
Incumbents retiring
One incumbent did not run for re-election in 2016. That incumbent was:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Edward O'Neill |  Independent |
District 17 |
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Rhode Island Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Maryellen Goodwin: 6,267 (I)  |
Jeffrey Caminero: 1,244 | |
| 2 | Ana Quezada |
No candidate | |
| 3 | Gayle Goldin (I) |
No candidate | |
| 4 | Dominick Ruggerio (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Paul Jabour (I) |
No candidate | |
| 6 | Harold Metts: 6,383 (I) |
No candidate | Russell Hryzan: 966 (Ind.) |
| 7 | Frank Ciccone (I) |
No candidate | |
| 8 | James Doyle (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | Adam Satchell (I) |
No candidate | |
| 10 | Walter Felag: 8,296 (I) |
No candidate | Jarrod Hazard: 3,741 (Ind.) |
| 11 | James Seveney: 6,621 |
John Pagliarini: 6,135 (I) | |
| 12 | Louis DiPalma: 7,911 (I) |
Amy Veri: 5,059 | |
| 13 | M. Teresa Paiva Weed: 7,609 (I) |
No candidate | Sav Rebecchi: 3,584 (Ind.) |
| 14 | Daniel Da Ponte (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Donna Nesselbush (I) |
No candidate | |
| 16 | Elizabeth Crowley (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Jina Petrarca-Karampetsos: 6,942 | Thomas Paolino: 7,224 |
|
| 18 | William Conley, Jr. (I) |
No candidate | |
| 19 | Ryan Pearson: 7,135 (I) |
Billy Charette: 5,686 | |
| 20 | Roger Picard (I) |
No candidate | |
| 21 | Margaux Morisseau: 6,101 | Nicholas Kettle: 8,282 (I) |
|
| 22 | Steve Archambault: 7,290 (I) |
Brent Barrows: 5,357 | |
| 23 | Paul Fogarty: 7,628 (I) |
Stephen Rawson: 5,475 | |
| 24 | Marc Cote (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Frank Lombardo, III: 8,219 (I) |
No candidate | Louis Vinagro: 4,246 (Ind.) |
| 26 | Frank Lombardi (I) |
No candidate | |
| 27 | Hanna Gallo: 7,276 (I) |
Jonathan Keith: 5,779 | |
| 28 | Joshua Miller (I) |
No candidate | |
| 29 | Michael McCaffrey: 8,341 (I) |
No candidate | Ronald Loparto: 4,585 (Ind.) |
| 30 | Jeanine Calkin |
No candidate | |
| 31 | Erin Lynch (I) |
No candidate | |
| 32 | Cynthia Armour Coyne: 8,012 (I) |
James Kazounis: 6,873 | |
| 33 | Leonidas Raptakis: 6,824 (I) |
No candidate | Scott Copley: 6,418 (Ind.) |
| 34 | Catherine Rumsey: 6,444 | Elaine Morgan: 7,856 (I) |
|
| 35 | No candidate | Mark Gee (I) |
|
| 36 | James Sheehan (I) |
No candidate | |
| 37 | V. Susan Sosnowski: 7,577 (I) |
No candidate | Sven Soderberg: 5,236 (Ind.) |
| 38 | No candidate | Dennis Algiere (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified three notable Rhode Island state legislative races in 2016, one of which was a state Senate contest.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Rhode Island races »
Primary contests
- Four Democratic candidates competed for the open seat vacated by the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Hagop Setrak Jawharjian ☐ Dennis Lavallee ☐ Keven McKenna ☑ Jina Petrarca-Karampetsos
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Rhode Island State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 38 races in the Rhode Island State Senate in 2016, 18 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 22.9 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Democratic candidates in the Rhode Island State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 33 races. In the 15 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 25.6 percent. Republicans won five races in 2016. In the three races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 9 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Five of the 18 contested races in 2016—27.8 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Three races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Rhode Island State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 11 D 3.8 percent District 17 R 2.0 percent District 32 D 7.7 percent District 33 D 3.1 percent District 34 R 9.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Rhode Island State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Thirty-four incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 16 winning Rhode Island State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 25.4 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Rhode Island State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 30 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 14 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 27.2 percent. Four Republican incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 12.5 percent. |
Rhode Island State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 33 25.6 percent 30 27.2 percent 16 18 54.5 percent Republican 5 9.0 percent 4 12.5 percent 2 2 40.0 percent Total 38 22.9 percent 34 25.4 percent 18 20 52.6 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Rhode Island State Senate districts in 2016.
| Rhode Island State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 66.9 percent |
| District 2 | D | Unopposed |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | Unopposed |
| District 6 | D | 73.7 percent |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | D | Unopposed |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | 37.8 percent |
| District 11 | D | 3.8 percent |
| District 12 | D | 22.0 percent |
| District 13 | D | 36.0 percent |
| District 14 | D | Unopposed |
| District 15 | D | Unopposed |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 17 | R | 2.0 percent |
| District 18 | D | Unopposed |
| District 19 | D | 11.3 percent |
| District 20 | D | Unopposed |
| District 21 | R | 15.2 percent |
| District 22 | D | 15.3 percent |
| District 23 | D | 16.4 percent |
| District 24 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | D | 31.9 percent |
| District 26 | D | Unopposed |
| District 27 | D | 11.5 percent |
| District 28 | D | Unopposed |
| District 29 | D | 29.1 percent |
| District 30 | D | Unopposed |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | 7.7 percent |
| District 33 | D | 3.1 percent |
| District 34 | R | 9.9 percent |
| District 35 | R | Unopposed |
| District 36 | D | Unopposed |
| District 37 | D | 18.3 percent |
| District 38 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Rhode Island elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Rhode Island in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| June 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for candidates to file declarations of candidacy | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing nomination papers | |
| September 13, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Source: Rhode Island Secretary of State, "How to Run for Office Guide," accessed April 15, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 28 (73.7 percent) of the 38 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major-party candidate running for election. A total of 26 Democrats and two Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 10 (26.3 percent) of the 38 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Six incumbents faced primary competition on September 13. One seat was open, leaving 31 incumbents who advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent representative did not run for re-election, while 37 sought re-election. A list displaying that incumbent, an independent, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Rhode Island's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Rhode Island General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 6.2% | 22.6% | 26.6% | 18.5 | 43 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Rhode Island in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Rhode Island State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 69 | $1,832,637 |
| 2012 | 80 | $1,998,060 |
| 2010 | 98 | $2,049,289 |
| 2008 | 74 | $1,783,862 |
| 2006 | 70 | $1,976,906 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Rhode Island, at $26,560 per candidate, is ranked 35 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Article III of the Rhode Island Constitution describes the requirements to hold office in Rhode Island's state government.
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Rhode Island," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
