Washington House of Representatives elections, 2016
| 2016 Washington House Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | August 2, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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All 98 seats in the Washington House of Representatives were up for election in 2016.
Democrats looked to defend their two-seat majority against the Republicans in the Washington House of Representatives, one of 20 battleground chambers. Realistically, either party could have ended up in control of the chamber.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Washington House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election was held on August 2, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was May 20, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Washington House of Representatives:
| Washington House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 50 | 50 | |
| Republican Party | 48 | 48 | |
| Total | 98 | 98 | |
Retired incumbents
Fourteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Moscoso |  Democratic |
House District 1-Position 2 |
| Chad Magendanz |  Republican |
House District 5-Position 2 |
| Kevin Parker | Republican |
House District 6-Position 1 |
| Brad Hawkins | Republican |
House District 12-Position 2 |
| Maureen Walsh | Republican |
House District 16-Position 1 |
| Lynda Wilson | Republican |
House District 17-Position 1 |
| Chris Reykdal | Democratic |
House District 22-Position 1 |
| Sam Hunt | Democratic |
House District 22-Position 2 |
| Kevin Van De Wege | Democratic |
House District 24-Position 1 |
| Hans Zeiger | Republican |
House District 25-Position 2 |
| Christopher Hurst | Democratic |
House District 31-Position 2 |
| Elizabeth Scott | Republican |
House District 39-Position 2 |
| Brady Walkinshaw | Democratic |
House District 43-Position 1 |
| James Moeller | Democratic |
House District 49-Position 2 |
Note: Former Rep. Hans Dunshee (D) resigned before the filing deadline. John Lovick (D) was appointed to the seat on June 8, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness
Washington sees more incumbents facing primary challengers.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Washington performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Washington State Senate, there were 24 Democratic incumbents and 25 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were three primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 50 Democratic incumbents and 48 Republican incumbents. Thirteen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 13 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Washington can be found below.
Context of the 2016 elections
The Washington House of Representatives was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target.[1] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 17, House District 44-Position 1, and House District 45-Position 1 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[2][3]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 30-Position 1 and Senate District 28 in their "2016 Essential Races."[4][5]
The political control of Washington State was subject to drastic change depending on the 2016 general election results. Republicans controlled the state Senate by one seat, while Democrats controlled the state House by two seats. The following scenarios were possible in the legislature:
- Status quo: chambers are divided.
- In the status quo scenario, the next two years in the Washington Legislature would be similar to the past two years since Republicans took over the state Senate. Neither major party would be able to further their own policy agendas without bipartisan support.[6]
- Democratic trifecta: Democrats retake the state Senate and retain the state House.
- If Democrats controlled the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature, Democrats would have the opportunity to further their policies. In past legislative sessions, the GOP Senate blocked Democratic legislation dealing with gun regulation and climate-change legislation.[6]
- Republicans control both chambers: Republicans retain the state Senate and flip the state House.
- If Republicans controlled both the state Senate and state House, Republicans would be able to create the state budget and further their own priorities without intervention from Democratic lawmakers. Republicans would also be able to block Democratic policies. Democrats would need to have relied on the veto powers of Gov. Jay Inslee (D) to block legislation.[6]
Fourteen House incumbents—seven Republicans and seven Democrats—did not seek re-election in 2016. Kevin Carns, executive director for the House Republican Organizational Committee, argued that the open seat created by Christopher Hurst's (D-31b) retirement made the chamber effectively tied going into the general election. Hurst had represented District 31 since his election in 2006. District 31 is predominantly made up of Republicans and the other two state legislators from the district were Republican. In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) and the Republican candidate for governor won the district. Carns said, "I’m really confident that’s going to be in the win column for us. I’m pretty confident there’s going to be a new party in control in January."[6]
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified seven notable Washington state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Washington races »
General election contests
State House District 28-Position 2
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a closely divided district.
- ☑ Christine Kilduff (Inc.) ☐ Paul Wagemann
State House District 31-Position 2
- In this open seat, a Republican and an Independent Democrat faced off in this Republican-leaning district.
- ☐ Lane Walthers (Ind. Democrat) ☑ Phil Fortunato
State House District 30-Position 1
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in this district.
- ☑ Mike Pellicciotti ☐ Linda Kochmar (Inc.)
State House District 44-Position 1
- A Republican candidate challenged a newly appointed Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ John Lovick (Inc.) ☐ Janice Huxford
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Washington House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 98 races in the Washington House of Representatives in 2016, 78 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 25.9 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[7]
| Democratic candidates in the Washington House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 50 races. In the 37 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.4 percent. Republicans won 48 races in 2016. In the 41 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.8 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 13 of the 78 contested races in 2016—16.7 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Six races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won nine races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Washington House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5A R 3.9 percent District 5B R 7.5 percent District 17A R 3.3 percent District 19A R 1.0 percent District 28A R 4.2 percent District 28B D 9.4 percent District 30A D 8.8 percent District 30B D 2.2 percent District 35A R 10.0 percent District 35B R 8.4 percent District 42A R 9.2 percent District 44A D 4.0 percent District 44B R 9.1 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Washington House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Eighty-one incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 62 winning Washington House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 28.8 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Washington House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 42 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 30 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 34.9 percent. 39 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 32 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.1 percent. |
Washington House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[8] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[8] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 50 31.4 percent 42 34.9 percent 12 13 26.0 percent Republican 48 20.8 percent 39 23.1 percent 7 7 14.6 percent Total 98 25.9 percent 81 28.8 percent 19 20 20.4 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Washington House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Washington House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1A | D | 21.9 percent |
| District 1B | D | 10.4 percent |
| District 2A | R | 16.4 percent |
| District 2B | R | 31.3 percent |
| District 3A | D | 34.6 percent |
| District 3B | D | 24.2 percent |
| District 4A | R | 29.3 percent |
| District 4B | R | Unopposed |
| District 5A | R | 3.9 percent |
| District 5B | R | 7.5 percent |
| District 6A | R | 10.7 percent |
| District 6B | R | 25.9 percent |
| District 7A | R | Unopposed |
| District 7B | R | 53.7 percent |
| District 8A | R | 17.3 percent |
| District 8B | R | 19.7 percent |
| District 9A | R | 33.0 percent |
| District 9B | R | Unopposed |
| District 10A | R | 43.9 percent |
| District 10B | R | 18.2 percent |
| District 11A | D | 35.6 percent |
| District 11B | D | Unopposed |
| District 12A | R | 25.9 percent |
| District 12B | R | 20.4 percent |
| District 13A | R | Unopposed |
| District 13B | R | 41.5 percent |
| District 14A | R | 32.1 percent |
| District 14B | R | 37.1 percent |
| District 15A | R | Unopposed |
| District 15B | R | 20.4 percent |
| District 16A | R | 24.1 percent |
| District 16B | R | 35.9 percent |
| District 17A | R | 3.3 percent |
| District 17B | R | 26.2 percent |
| District 18A | R | 26.7 percent |
| District 18B | R | 13.6 percent |
| District 19A | R | 1.0 percent |
| District 19B | D | 19.8 percent |
| District 20A | R | Unopposed |
| District 20B | R | Unopposed |
| District 21A | D | 44.4 percent |
| District 21B | D | 23.9 percent |
| District 22A | D | 32.6 percent |
| District 22B | D | Unopposed |
| District 23A | D | 14.5 percent |
| District 23B | D | Unopposed |
| District 24A | D | 21.8 percent |
| District 24B | D | 13.7 percent |
| District 25A | R | 17.2 percent |
| District 25B | R | 12.4 percent |
| District 26A | R | 13.8 percent |
| District 26B | R | 17.9 percent |
| District 27A | D | Unopposed |
| District 27B | D | Unopposed |
| District 28A | R | 4.2 percent |
| District 28B | D | 9.5 percent |
| District 29A | D | 18.6 percent |
| District 29B | D | 21.6 percent |
| District 30A | D | 8.8 percent |
| District 30B | D | 2.2 percent |
| District 31A | R | 43.2 percent |
| District 31B | R | 15.5 percent |
| District 32A | D | 51.7 percent |
| District 32B | D | 45.1 percent |
| District 33A | D | 45.1 percent |
| District 33B | D | 40.1 percent |
| District 34A | D | 30.8 percent |
| District 34B | D | 61.2 percent |
| District 35A | D | 59.5 percent |
| District 35B | R | 10.0 percent |
| District 36A | R | 8.4 percent |
| District 36B | D | Unopposed |
| District 37A | D | Unopposed |
| District 37B | D | 81.8 percent |
| District 38A | D | 72.9 percent |
| District 38B | D | Unopposed |
| District 39A | D | 24.7 percent |
| District 39B | R | 23.4 percent |
| District 40A | R | 21.9 percent |
| District 40B | D | Unopposed |
| District 41A | D | Unopposed |
| District 41B | D | 29.0 percent |
| District 42A | D | 23.3 percent |
| District 42B | R | 9.2 percent |
| District 43A | R | 15.8 percent |
| District 43B | D | 30.9 percent |
| District 44A | D | Unopposed |
| District 44B | D | 4.0 percent |
| District 45A | R | 9.1 percent |
| District 45B | D | 23.7 percent |
| District 46A | D | Unopposed |
| District 46B | D | 69.8 percent |
| District 47A | D | Unopposed |
| District 47B | R | 14.2 percent |
| District 48A | D | 16.0 percent |
| District 48B | D | 40.2 percent |
| District 49A | D | 45.3 percent |
| District 49B | D | 44.4 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Washington elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Washington in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| February 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| March 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| May 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 and C-3 due, if required | |
| May 20, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for all candidates | |
| June 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Monthly C-4 due, if required | |
| July 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | 21-day pre-primary C-4 due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in primary candidates | |
| July 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-primary C-4 due | |
| August 2, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary C-4 due | |
| October 18, 2016 | Campaign finance | 21-day pre-general C-4 due | |
| October 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in general election candidates | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-general C-4 due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general C-4 due (and C-3, if required) | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | End of election cycle C-4 due (and C-3, if required) | |
| Note: Beginning June 1, 2016, C-3 reports must be filed weekly for deposits made during the previous seven days. Sources: Washington Secretary of State, "2016 Elections Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 Washington Public Disclosure Commission, "2016 Key Reporting Dates for Candidates," accessed November 25, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 35 (36 percent) of the 98 seats up for election in 2016, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 22 Democrats and 13 Republicans are guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 63 (64.2 percent) of the 98 seats up for election.
Note: Candidates filed as an Independent Democrat or Independent Republican were counted as a Democrat or Republican in the competitiveness analysis.
Primary challenges
Twenty-seven incumbents faced primary competition on August 2. Fourteen seats are open, leaving 57 incumbents that advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Fourteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 83 ran for re-election. A list of those retiring incumbents, seven Republicans and seven Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Washington's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Washington Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.6% | 15.5% | 66.7% | 30.9 | 18 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Washington in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[9]
| Washington House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 213 | $15,160,254 |
| 2012 | 225 | $15,847,692 |
| 2010 | 240 | $15,749,783 |
| 2008 | 220 | $15,336,325 |
| 2006 | 191 | $13,484,978 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Washington, at $71,175 per candidate, is ranked 11 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[9][10]
Qualifications
Section 7 of Article 2 of the Washington State Constitution states: "No person shall be eligible to the legislature who shall not be a citizen of the United States and a qualified voter in the district for which he is chosen."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Seattle Times, "Handful of races could flip political control of Legislature," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Washington," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
