Hawaii State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Hawaii Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | August 13, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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A total of 14 seats out of the 25 seats in the Hawaii State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats ousted the lone Republican incumbent, resulting in a chamber represented entirely by Democrats.
Hawaii state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction
Elections for the Hawaii State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 13, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 7, 2016.
Majority control
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Hawaii State Senate:
| Hawaii State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 24 | 25 | |
| Republican Party | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 25 | 25 | |
Retired incumbents
One incumbent did not run for re-election in 2016. That incumbent was:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Suzanne Chun Oakland |  Democratic |
Senate District 13 |
2016 election competitiveness
Hawaii saw a drop in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Hawaii performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In Hawaii, the percentage of legislative districts with only one major party candidate running in the general election increased significantly in 2016. Just over 52 percent of seats did not have general election competition. This compares to 26 percent seen between 2010 and 2014.
- In the Hawaii State Senate, there were 24 Democratic incumbents and one Republican incumbent, Samuel Slom. Five incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Slom did not face a primary opponent.
- In the House, there were 44 Democratic incumbents and seven Republican incumbents. Eighteen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were two incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Hawaii can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified five notable Hawaii state legislative races in 2016, two of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Hawaii races »
General election contests
- ☐ Sam Slom (Inc.) ☑ Stanley Chang
- ☑ Laura Thielen (Inc.) ☐ Robert Nagamine
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Hawaii Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Kaiali'i Kahele: 14,488 (I)  |
No candidate | Kimberly Arianoff: 1,816 (L) |
| 2 | Russell Ruderman: 11,664 (I) |
No candidate | Frederick Fogel: 2,488 (L) |
| 5 | Gilbert Keith-Agaran (I) |
No candidate | |
| 8 | Ronald Kouchi (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | Stanley Chang: 13,433 |
Samuel Slom: 11,985 (I) | |
| 10 | Les Ihara, Jr.: 13,845 (I) |
No candidate | Arnold Phillips II: 2,712 (L) |
| 11 | Brian Taniguchi: 14,943 (I) |
C. Kaui Jochanan Amsterdam: 3,416 | Joe Kent: 791 (L) |
| 13 | Karl Rhoads: 10,815 |
Rod Tam: 3,826 | Harry Ozols: 593 (L) |
| 14 | Donna Kim (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Glenn Wakai: 9,226 (I) |
No candidate | Roman Kalinowski: 1,711 (L) |
| 19 | William Espero: 7,880 (I) |
Kurt Fevella: 4,912 | |
| 20 | Mike Gabbard (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Donovan Dela Cruz (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Laura Thielen: 14,212 (I) |
Robert Nagamine: 6,886 | |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
| 2016 Hawaii Senate primary candidates | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other | |
| 1 | Kaiali'i Kahele: 6,592 (I) Dennis Onishi: 4,037 Kaloa Robinson: 793 |
No candidate | Kimberly Arianoff (L) |
|
| 2 | Greggor Ilagan: 3,580 Russell Ruderman: 4,275 (I) |
No candidate | Frederick Fogel (L) |
|
| 5 | Gilbert Keith-Agaran (I) |
No candidate | ||
| 8 | Kanoe Ahuna: 4,492 Ronald Kouchi: 7,817 (I) |
No candidate | ||
| 9 | Michael Bennett: 2,231 Stanley Chang: 7,950 Richard Kim: 524 |
Samuel Slom (I) |
||
| 10 | David Farrell: 1,295 Les Ihara, Jr.: 6,667 (I) |
No candidate | Arnold Phillips II (L) |
|
| 11 | Brian Taniguchi (I) |
C. Kaui Jochanan Amsterdam |
Joe Kent (L)
| |
| 13 | Kim Coco Iwamoto: 2,530 Keone Nakoa: 1,865 Karl Rhoads: 3,606 |
Rod Tam |
Harry Ozols (L)
| |
| 14 | Carl Campagna: 1,012 Donna Kim: 5,904 (I) |
No candidate | ||
| 15 | Glenn Wakai (I) |
No candidate | Roman Kalinowski (L)
| |
| 19 | William Espero (I) |
Kurt Fevella: 989 Chris Fidelibus: 650 |
||
| 20 | Mike Gabbard (I) |
No candidate | ||
| 22 | Donovan Dela Cruz (I) |
No candidate | ||
| 25 | Laura Thielen (I) |
Heather Dozier: 866 Robert Nagamine: 1,610 |
||
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | |||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | ||||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Hawaii State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 14 races in the Hawaii State Senate in 2016, nine were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 49.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[1]
| Democratic candidates in the Hawaii State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 14 races. In the nine races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 49.8 percent. Republicans did not win any races in 2016. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. One of the nine contested races in 2016—11.1 percent—saw a margin of victory that was 10 percent or less: District 9. It was won by a Democrat. |
Hawaii State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 9 D 5.7 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Hawaii State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. Twelve incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the seven winning Hawaii State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 56.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
Hawaii State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[2] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[2] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 14 49.8 percent 12 56.7 percent 5 5 35.7 percent Republican 0 N/A 0 N/A 0 0 N/A Total 14 49.8 percent 12 56.7 percent 5 5 35.7 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Hawaii State Senate districts in 2016.
| Hawaii State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 77.7 percent |
| District 2 | D | 64.8 percent |
| District 5 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | D | Unopposed |
| District 9 | D | 5.7 percent |
| District 10 | D | 67.2 percent |
| District 11 | D | 60.2 percent |
| District 13 | D | 45.9 percent |
| District 14 | D | Unopposed |
| District 15 | D | 68.7 percent |
| District 19 | D | 23.2 percent |
| District 20 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | D | 34.7 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Hawaii elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Hawaii in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| February 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate nomination papers are available for pick-up from state elections office or county elections officials | |
| February 25, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for petition to form new political party (party rules and a list of officers must also be submitted at this time) | |
| June 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing nomination papers | |
| July 14, 2016 | Campaign finance | First preliminary primary report due | |
| July 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure forms due (state candidates) | |
| August 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second preliminary primary report due | |
| August 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Primary election late contributions report due | |
| August 13, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final primary report due | |
| September 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Expense report on use of public funds in primary election due | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preliminary general election report due | |
| November 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | General election late contributions report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final election period report due | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Expense report on use of public funds in general election due | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Last day to file final primary and general application for public funds | |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Final day to submit supplemental report on deficit/surplus funds | |
| Source: Hawaii Office of Elections, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed June 5, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 9 of the 14 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. Nine Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 5 (36.0%) of the 14 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Five incumbents faced primary competition on August 13. One incumbent did not seek re-election and another eight incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent, a Democrat, did not run for re-election, while 13 (93.0%) ran for re-election. The one retiring incumbent can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Hawaii's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Hawaii Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 7.8% | 35.6% | 68.8% | 37.4 | 12 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Hawaii in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[3]
| Hawaii State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 37 | $1,418,668 |
| 2012 | 54 | $3,368,093 |
| 2010 | 46 | $1,789,331 |
| 2008 | 26 | $2,279,734 |
| 2006 | 28 | $1,488,669 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Hawaii, at $38,342 per candidate, is ranked 34 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[3][4]
Qualifications
From Article III, Section 7 of the Hawaii Constitution: "No person shall be eligible to serve as a member of the senate unless the person has been a resident of the State for not less than three years, has attained the age of majority and is, prior to filing nomination papers and thereafter continues to be, a qualified voter of the senatorial district from which the person seeks to be elected; except that in the year of the first general election following reapportionment, but prior to the primary election, an incumbent senator may move to a new district without being disqualified from completing the remainder of the incumbent senator's term."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Hawaii," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
