Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016
From Ballotpedia
President Donald Trump (R) won 2,626 counties nationwide, while Hillary Clinton (D) won 487 counties.[1] Of the 2,626 counties Trump won, Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Trump in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.[2] Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government.
HIGHLIGHTS
A small number of these counties could be considered bellwethers in modern presidential elections. Of the 206 Pivot Counties, 22 of them (10.7 percent) have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election dating back to 1984. Among those 22 counties, two (9.0 percent) voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1960. Those two counties are Valencia County, New Mexico, and Vigo County, Indiana.
The following map displays the Pivot Counties that voted for Obama, Obama, and Trump:
The table below details the number of Pivot Counties in each state. To see a full list of Pivot Counties, click here. For more complete information on a state, click the state name.
| Pivot Counties By State | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Pivot Counties | Total Counties | Percentage of Pivot Counties | Percentage of Population in Pivot Counties |
| Arkansas | 1 | 75 | 1.33% | 0.24% |
| Colorado | 4 | 64 | 6.25% | 0.57% |
| Connecticut | 1 | 8 | 12.50% | 3.28% |
| Delaware | 1 | 3 | 33.33% | 18.26% |
| Florida | 4 | 67 | 5.97% | 6.71% |
| Georgia | 5 | 159 | 3.14% | 0.57% |
| Illinois | 11 | 102 | 10.78% | 4.52% |
| Indiana | 5 | 92 | 5.43% | 7.98% |
| Iowa | 31 | 99 | 31.31% | 26.11% |
| Kentucky | 1 | 120 | 0.83% | 0.18% |
| Maine | 8 | 16 | 50.00% | 47.08% |
| Michigan | 12 | 83 | 14.46% | 18.36% |
| Minnesota | 19 | 87 | 21.84% | 9.97% |
| Mississippi | 2 | 82 | 2.44% | 3.09% |
| Montana | 3 | 56 | 5.36% | 3.37% |
| Nebraska | 1 | 93 | 1.08% | 0.37% |
| New Hampshire | 3 | 10 | 30.00% | 36.20% |
| New Jersey | 2 | 21 | 9.52% | 4.00% |
| New Mexico | 3 | 33 | 9.09% | 4.54% |
| New York | 18 | 62 | 29.03% | 19.37% |
| North Carolina | 6 | 100 | 6.00% | 3.18% |
| North Dakota | 4 | 53 | 7.55% | 2.56% |
| Ohio | 9 | 88 | 10.23% | 13.95% |
| Oregon | 2 | 36 | 5.56% | 1.91% |
| Pennsylvania | 3 | 67 | 4.48% | 7.05% |
| Rhode Island | 1 | 5 | 20.00% | 15.69% |
| South Carolina | 5 | 46 | 10.87% | 2.50% |
| South Dakota | 5 | 66 | 7.58% | 3.31% |
| Tennessee | 1 | 95 | 1.05% | 0.41% |
| Texas | 1 | 254 | 0.39% | 0.97% |
| Vermont | 1 | 14 | 7.14% | 0.99% |
| Virginia | 5 | 133 | 3.76% | 3.95% |
| Washington | 5 | 39 | 12.82% | 4.74% |
| Wisconsin | 23 | 72 | 31.94% | 17.35% |
Raw data
The following table details the last three presidential votes with figures for national vote totals, totals in just the Pivot Counties, and the difference between those two figures.
List of Pivot Counties
| Counties Won By Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Trump Margin of Victory in 2016 | Obama Margin of Victory in 2012 | Obama Margin of Victory in 2008 |
| Woodruff County, Arkansas | Arkansas | 8.91% | 4.21% | 7.46% |
| Conejos County, Colorado | Colorado | 3.56% | 9.22% | 12.93% |
| Huerfano County, Colorado | Colorado | 6.61% | 8.27% | 11.23% |
| Las Animas County, Colorado | Colorado | 15.60% | 2.65% | 7.04% |
| Pueblo County, Colorado | Colorado | 0.50% | 13.99% | 14.97% |
| Windham County, Connecticut | Connecticut | 7.78% | 13.28% | 14.68% |
| Kent County, Delaware | Delaware | 4.87% | 4.94% | 9.81% |
| Jefferson County, Florida | Florida | 5.06% | 1.75% | 3.66% |
| Monroe County, Florida | Florida | 6.82% | 0.44% | 4.90% |
| Pinellas County, Florida | Florida | 1.11% | 5.65% | 8.25% |
| St. Lucie County, Florida | Florida | 2.40% | 7.86% | 12.12% |
| Baker County, Georgia | Georgia | 8.68% | 0.57% | 1.07% |
| Dooly County, Georgia | Georgia | 2.05% | 6.98% | 3.53% |
| Peach County, Georgia | Georgia | 2.91% | 7.48% | 6.75% |
| Quitman County, Georgia | Georgia | 10.92% | 9.04% | 7.90% |
| Twiggs County, Georgia | Georgia | 1.58% | 8.64% | 6.97% |
| Alexander County, Illinois | Illinois | 8.30% | 13.65% | 12.62% |
| Carroll County, Illinois | Illinois | 26.69% | 1.49% | 4.81% |
| Fulton County, Illinois | Illinois | 14.93% | 11.04% | 21.33% |
| Henderson County, Illinois | Illinois | 28.43% | 12.25% | 17.67% |
| Henry County, Illinois | Illinois | 20.99% | 3.08% | 7.74% |
| Jo Daviess County, Illinois | Illinois | 14.64% | 1.16% | 10.49% |
| Knox County, Illinois | Illinois | 2.91% | 17.37% | 19.89% |
| Mercer County, Illinois | Illinois | 20.36% | 7.39% | 11.91% |
| Putnam County, Illinois | Illinois | 19.92% | 1.82% | 15.64% |
| Warren County, Illinois | Illinois | 16.50% | 5.47% | 8.08% |
| Whiteside County, Illinois | Illinois | 6.18% | 17.02% | 17.56% |
| Delaware County, Indiana | Indiana | 13.43% | 3.12% | 14.98% |
| LaPorte County, Indiana | Indiana | 6.33% | 12.57% | 22.04% |
| Perry County, Indiana | Indiana | 18.55% | 11.59% | 22.84% |
| Porter County, Indiana | Indiana | 6.59% | 3.90% | 7.20% |
| Vigo County, Indiana | Indiana | 14.97% | 0.86% | 15.83% |
| Allamakee County, Iowa | Iowa | 24.15% | 4.17% | 14.25% |
| Boone County, Iowa | Iowa | 13.69% | 6.64% | 7.63% |
| Bremer County, Iowa | Iowa | 13.68% | 2.68% | 9.31% |
| Buchanan County, Iowa | Iowa | 15.02% | 13.87% | 18.48% |
| Cedar County, Iowa | Iowa | 17.78% | 4.59% | 9.64% |
| Cerro Gordo County, Iowa | Iowa | 7.66% | 13.38% | 20.83% |
| Chickasaw County, Iowa | Iowa | 22.94% | 11.07% | 20.74% |
| Clarke County, Iowa | Iowa | 28.02% | 1.47% | 2.25% |
| Clayton County, Iowa | Iowa | 22.78% | 7.03% | 17.17% |
| Clinton County, Iowa | Iowa | 5.12% | 22.84% | 23.03% |
| Des Moines County, Iowa | Iowa | 6.89% | 18.41% | 23.04% |
| Dubuque County, Iowa | Iowa | 1.23% | 14.71% | 20.77% |
| Fayette County, Iowa | Iowa | 19.36% | 11.96% | 16.60% |
| Floyd County, Iowa | Iowa | 14.84% | 14.63% | 21.88% |
| Howard County, Iowa | Iowa | 20.49% | 20.95% | 25.78% |
| Jackson County, Iowa | Iowa | 19.27% | 16.89% | 24.39% |
| Jasper County, Iowa | Iowa | 18.13% | 7.07% | 7.50% |
| Jefferson County, Iowa | Iowa | 0.47% | 15.97% | 20.23% |
| Jones County, Iowa | Iowa | 19.08% | 7.78% | 10.40% |
| Lee County, Iowa | Iowa | 16.02% | 15.49% | 16.01% |
| Louisa County, Iowa | Iowa | 28.37% | 0.64% | 4.25% |
| Marshall County, Iowa | Iowa | 8.31% | 9.36% | 9.35% |
| Mitchell County, Iowa | Iowa | 24.04% | 3.37% | 12.31% |
| Muscatine County, Iowa | Iowa | 6.26% | 15.88% | 15.64% |
| Poweshiek County, Iowa | Iowa | 6.53% | 9.35% | 11.75% |
| Tama County, Iowa | Iowa | 20.28% | 7.43% | 12.19% |
| Union County, Iowa | Iowa | 27.49% | 3.86% | 3.70% |
| Wapello County, Iowa | Iowa | 20.60% | 11.88% | 13.53% |
| Webster County, Iowa | Iowa | 21.52% | 5.84% | 8.51% |
| Winneshiek County, Iowa | Iowa | 0.79% | 14.74% | 22.65% |
| Worth County, Iowa | Iowa | 21.68% | 14.53% | 22.42% |
| Elliott County, Kentucky | Kentucky | 44.13% | 2.50% | 25.17% |
| Androscoggin County, Maine | Maine | 9.38% | 12.78% | 15.22% |
| Aroostook County, Maine | Maine | 17.19% | 7.62% | 9.58% |
| Franklin County, Maine | Maine | 5.47% | 18.41% | 20.29% |
| Kennebec County, Maine | Maine | 3.58% | 13.46% | 14.78% |
| Oxford County, Maine | Maine | 12.94% | 14.73% | 16.04% |
| Penobscot County, Maine | Maine | 10.91% | 2.93% | 5.12% |
| Somerset County, Maine | Maine | 22.67% | 1.68% | 5.70% |
| Washington County, Maine | Maine | 18.44% | 1.60% | 1.01% |
| Bay County, Michigan | Michigan | 12.55% | 5.56% | 15.31% |
| Calhoun County, Michigan | Michigan | 12.46% | 1.60% | 9.36% |
| Eaton County, Michigan | Michigan | 4.72% | 3.13% | 8.40% |
| Gogebic County, Michigan | Michigan | 14.80% | 8.10% | 17.27% |
| Isabella County, Michigan | Michigan | 3.66% | 9.28% | 19.26% |
| Lake County, Michigan | Michigan | 22.77% | 5.01% | 12.28% |
| Macomb County, Michigan | Michigan | 11.53% | 3.99% | 8.62% |
| Manistee County, Michigan | Michigan | 15.29% | 5.93% | 13.26% |
| Monroe County, Michigan | Michigan | 21.97% | 0.98% | 4.35% |
| Saginaw County, Michigan | Michigan | 1.13% | 11.89% | 17.34% |
| Shiawassee County, Michigan | Michigan | 19.59% | 3.67% | 8.59% |
| Van Buren County, Michigan | Michigan | 13.92% | 0.45% | 8.78% |
| Beltrami County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 9.72% | 9.89% | 10.15% |
| Blue Earth County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 3.69% | 9.48% | 12.95% |
| Chippewa County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 28.70% | 1.87% | 5.87% |
| Clay County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 1.95% | 7.92% | 16.02% |
| Fillmore County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 21.70% | 7.34% | 8.26% |
| Freeborn County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 17.24% | 14.11% | 17.13% |
| Houston County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 13.87% | 3.16% | 10.69% |
| Itasca County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 16.35% | 9.83% | 12.92% |
| Kittson County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 22.05% | 6.03% | 18.54% |
| Koochiching County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 19.85% | 9.45% | 10.10% |
| Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 25.60% | 0.90% | 5.92% |
| Mahnomen County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 2.92% | 18.56% | 25.31% |
| Mower County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 7.82% | 22.61% | 23.61% |
| Nicollet County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 3.04% | 7.83% | 10.52% |
| Norman County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 13.34% | 10.79% | 26.94% |
| Rice County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 3.06% | 8.27% | 11.50% |
| Swift County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 25.57% | 9.83% | 13.79% |
| Traverse County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 23.30% | 4.44% | 5.41% |
| Winona County, Minnesota | Minnesota | 2.90% | 12.85% | 19.09% |
| Chickasaw County, Mississippi | Mississippi | 6.06% | 4.52% | 2.13% |
| Panola County, Mississippi | Mississippi | 0.12% | 8.62% | 6.52% |
| Blaine County, Montana | Montana | 2.46% | 15.32% | 19.24% |
| Hill County, Montana | Montana | 17.18% | 3.50% | 12.21% |
| Roosevelt County, Montana | Montana | 6.49% | 15.58% | 26.27% |
| Thurston County, Nebraska | Nebraska | 5.94% | 13.91% | 6.96% |
| Coos County, New Hampshire | New Hampshire | 8.89% | 17.54% | 18.19% |
| Hillsborough County, New Hampshire | New Hampshire | 0.20% | 1.12% | 3.73% |
| Sullivan County, New Hampshire | New Hampshire | 2.58% | 13.27% | 17.93% |
| Gloucester County, New Jersey | New Jersey | 0.48% | 10.77% | 12.16% |
| Salem County, New Jersey | New Jersey | 15.00% | 1.31% | 3.92% |
| Colfax County, New Mexico | New Mexico | 8.55% | 2.24% | 10.73% |
| Hidalgo County, New Mexico | New Mexico | 6.73% | 4.96% | 2.92% |
| Valencia County, New Mexico | New Mexico | 8.60% | 2.47% | 7.72% |
| Broome County, New York | New York | 2.01% | 5.31% | 8.02% |
| Cayuga County, New York | New York | 11.64% | 11.40% | 8.48% |
| Cortland County, New York | New York | 5.58% | 9.11% | 9.96% |
| Essex County, New York | New York | 1.14% | 18.77% | 13.32% |
| Franklin County, New York | New York | 5.45% | 26.07% | 22.23% |
| Madison County, New York | New York | 14.20% | 0.89% | 0.87% |
| Niagara County, New York | New York | 17.75% | 0.84% | 1.00% |
| Orange County, New York | New York | 5.50% | 5.65% | 4.13% |
| Oswego County, New York | New York | 21.99% | 7.93% | 2.44% |
| Otsego County, New York | New York | 11.13% | 2.72% | 5.91% |
| Rensselaer County, New York | New York | 1.41% | 12.19% | 9.34% |
| St. Lawrence County, New York | New York | 8.82% | 16.71% | 16.33% |
| Saratoga County, New York | New York | 3.21% | 2.44% | 3.40% |
| Seneca County, New York | New York | 11.01% | 9.08% | 2.60% |
| Suffolk County, New York | New York | 6.84% | 3.69% | 5.99% |
| Sullivan County, New York | New York | 11.23% | 9.02% | 9.46% |
| Warren County, New York | New York | 8.47% | 2.32% | 2.64% |
| Washington County, New York | New York | 18.40% | 1.90% | 0.81% |
| Bladen County, North Carolina | North Carolina | 9.39% | 1.97% | 2.07% |
| Gates County, North Carolina | North Carolina | 9.07% | 4.11% | 5.22% |
| Granville County, North Carolina | North Carolina | 2.49% | 4.54% | 6.58% |
| Martin County, North Carolina | North Carolina | 0.43% | 4.65% | 4.64% |
| Richmond County, North Carolina | North Carolina | 9.74% | 2.95% | 1.50% |
| Robeson County, North Carolina | North Carolina | 4.27% | 17.41% | 13.78% |
| Benson County, North Dakota | North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% |
| Ransom County, North Dakota | North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% |
| Sargent County, North Dakota | North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% |
| Steele County, North Dakota | North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% |
| Ashtabula County, Ohio | Ohio | 18.80% | 12.78% | 13.54% |
| Erie County, Ohio | Ohio | 9.48% | 12.29% | 13.86% |
| Montgomery County, Ohio | Ohio | 0.73% | 4.62% | 6.22% |
| Ottawa County, Ohio | Ohio | 19.51% | 4.30% | 6.24% |
| Portage County, Ohio | Ohio | 9.87% | 5.52% | 8.99% |
| Sandusky County, Ohio | Ohio | 22.58% | 2.71% | 4.64% |
| Stark County, Ohio | Ohio | 17.17% | 0.47% | 5.46% |
| Trumbull County, Ohio | Ohio | 6.22% | 23.00% | 22.43% |
| Wood County, Ohio | Ohio | 7.99% | 4.84% | 7.13% |
| Columbia County, Oregon | Oregon | 11.46% | 5.16% | 12.02% |
| Tillamook County, Oregon | Oregon | 5.58% | 4.86% | 9.89% |
| Erie County, Pennsylvania | Pennsylvania | 1.56% | 16.03% | 19.88% |
| Luzerne County, Pennsylvania | Pennsylvania | 19.31% | 4.81% | 8.41% |
| Northampton County, Pennsylvania | Pennsylvania | 3.78% | 4.71% | 12.30% |
| Kent County, Rhode Island | Rhode Island | 0.67% | 17.74% | 17.40% |
| Barnwell County, South Carolina | South Carolina | 5.16% | 5.33% | 1.65% |
| Calhoun County, South Carolina | South Carolina | 2.83% | 4.31% | 3.55% |
| Chester County, South Carolina | South Carolina | 4.83% | 10.58% | 8.30% |
| Colleton County, South Carolina | South Carolina | 8.49% | 0.19% | 0.53% |
| McCormick County, South Carolina | South Carolina | 3.32% | 3.60% | 6.08% |
| Corson County, South Dakota | South Dakota | 4.51% | 11.08% | 21.48% |
| Day County, South Dakota | South Dakota | 23.77% | 6.16% | 12.89% |
| Marshall County, South Dakota | South Dakota | 15.51% | 8.66% | 16.48% |
| Roberts County, South Dakota | South Dakota | 15.53% | 9.84% | 19.64% |
| Ziebach County, South Dakota | South Dakota | 1.96% | 16.43% | 27.16% |
| Hardeman County, Tennessee | Tennessee | 7.92% | 5.91% | 6.18% |
| Jefferson County, Texas | Texas | 0.48% | 1.61% | 2.25% |
| Essex County, Vermont | Vermont | 16.65% | 13.40% | 14.48% |
| Buckingham County, Virginia | Virginia | 11.28% | 2.43% | 0.87% |
| Caroline County, Virginia | Virginia | 5.02% | 8.24% | 11.97% |
| Essex County, Virginia | Virginia | 2.14% | 7.30% | 10.35% |
| Nelson County, Virginia | Virginia | 5.59% | 2.72% | 9.15% |
| Westmoreland County, Virginia | Virginia | 7.14% | 6.95% | 10.24% |
| Clallam County, Washington | Washington | 2.76% | 0.38% | 3.30% |
| Cowlitz County, Washington | Washington | 13.32% | 4.44% | 11.15% |
| Grays Harbor County, Washington | Washington | 6.99% | 14.11% | 14.56% |
| Mason County, Washington | Washington | 5.81% | 7.09% | 8.66% |
| Pacific County, Washington | Washington | 6.74% | 11.52% | 14.07% |
| Adams County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 21.92% | 8.73% | 18.35% |
| Buffalo County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 21.82% | 2.93% | 14.66% |
| Columbia County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 2.14% | 13.58% | 15.26% |
| Crawford County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 5.40% | 19.98% | 27.03% |
| Door County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 3.22% | 6.99% | 17.33% |
| Dunn County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 11.09% | 4.97% | 14.95% |
| Forest County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 26.58% | 5.44% | 15.16% |
| Grant County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 9.43% | 13.77% | 23.88% |
| Jackson County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 11.74% | 15.01% | 21.84% |
| Juneau County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 26.05% | 7.03% | 9.00% |
| Kenosha County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 0.31% | 12.23% | 18.06% |
| Lafayette County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 8.99% | 15.37% | 22.32% |
| Lincoln County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 20.60% | 0.71% | 12.48% |
| Marquette County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 24.09% | 0.27% | 5.28% |
| Pepin County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 23.08% | 2.22% | 12.89% |
| Price County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 25.00% | 0.04% | 13.40% |
| Racine County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 4.28% | 3.54% | 7.41% |
| Richland County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 5.50% | 16.13% | 20.63% |
| Sauk County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 0.35% | 18.47% | 23.04% |
| Sawyer County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 18.41% | 0.49% | 6.23% |
| Trempealeau County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 12.64% | 14.08% | 26.39% |
| Vernon County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 4.43% | 14.73% | 22.00% |
| Winnebago County, Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 7.34% | 3.73% | 11.66% |
| Average | 11.45% | 8.22% | 12.29% | |
| Median | 9.41% | 7.32% | 11.94% | |
See also
- List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
- Pivot Counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in presidential elections since 1992
- Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- Presidential election, 2016
- Presidential election, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ Associated Press, "Trending story that Clinton won just 57 counties is untrue," December 6, 2016
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections in July 2017.
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