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Surveys of inflation expectations aren't the most reliable indicators, since normal people don't really think in terms of a number. But for what it's worth, no sign of expectations losing their anchor 1/
And worth noting that the most salient price, gasoline, is way down. So very little reason to believe that an inflation spiral is looming any time soon 2/
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A month is only a month, and still better to focus on 3-month rates of inflation. But if you bear in mind the lagged effect of rent disinflation, this sure looks like underlying inflation under 4. 1/
It's almost as if the 2021-2 inflation surge was tr-tr-tr ... something that ends with "tory". 2/
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Jason is doing an excellent service here. How I sort-of think about it too 1/
And this is my own concept that swaps in spot rents for all rents using the private measures from Apartment List and Zillow. This is NOT a good measure of the cost of living but may be a better way to think about where inflation is going. pic.twitter.com/gMlSJtfujE
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) 2022å¹´12æ13æ¥
If you're of a certain (advanced) age, "supercore" makes you think of childhood TV 3/
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Thoughts about inflation. It should go without saying that we need to be cautious. Yesterday's good report came <2 weeks after a nasty negative shock on wages. Much too soon to celebrate 1/
That said, I find myself thinking about Dornbusch's Law â originally about currency crises: the crisis takes longer to arrive than you imagine, then happens faster than you imagine 2/
Maybe something similar on disinflation? Obv we don't know that, but past underprediction of inflation is no guarantee of future performance 3/
More substantively: many people trying to estimate "underlying" inflation. But less clarity about what that means, and this matters 4/
Standard macro says that inflation can be self-perpetuating â that is, persist even in the face of above-normal unemployment â if entrenched in expectations. But ... 5/
... one-year expectations elevated, but that's just lagged gas prices; medium-term not at all, and no sign future inflation seeping into price and wage setting 6/
Alternative notion of "underlying" is inflation caused by general excess demand rather than temporary disruptions. Wage data and most core measures show some of that 7/
But if inflation isn't entrenched â and probably won't be, given low headline rates â isn't it likely that cooling demand will bring inflation down fast? 8/
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Yes. Or use market rents instead of BLS. But even "supercore" excluding shelter is running at 3.6% over past 3 months if you also exclude used cars. Still curb our enthusiasm time, although dire Volcker scenarios look ever less likely
Rents are falling fast (much more than seasonality) as household formation has slowed sharply (after surging during pandemic).
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) 2022å¹´12æ14æ¥
This is important for inflation - demand for rentals is falling, while supply is picking up. Perhaps we should look at inflation ex-shelter.
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A quick note about "core" inflation. I'm aware of at least 6 measures:
Traditional
Median
Trimmed mean
Supercore (traditional ex shelter)
Superdupercore (super also ex used cars)
Furman core (use market rents for shelter)
They all tell different stories!
Here's what I get (using Zillow in place of BLS shelter)
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Reupping this: current measures of core inflation tell you whatever you want to hear. 3-month rates annualized 1/
Definitions:
Traditional
Median
Trimmed mean
Supercore (traditional ex shelter)
Superdupercore (super also ex used cars)
Furman core (use market rents for shelter) 2/
More in forthcoming newsletter 3/
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I'm not going to try picking over the entrails of the latest inflation report. Just noting the role reversal. A year ago inflation optimists kept trying to explain away the bad news ... 1/
Now the pessimists are working overtime to explain away the good news. To be fair, always a good idea to be cautious. But recent reports really have been encouraging 2/
And one thing the data really don't support is the notion that reducing inflation must require a big rise in unemployment. All of the good news has happened with labor market still strong 3/
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*1:cf. Apartment List - Wikipediaã
*2:cf. Zillow - Wikipediaã
*3:cf. スーパーカー (人形劇) - Wikipediaã
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