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Look, what we saw was a seven and a half percent annual rate wage increase for the month, a six percent wage increase for the last three months and a 5 percent increase for the year. So it's high and it's rising and the labor market is strong. And we're still in unprecedented territory in terms of the gap between vacancies and jobs. And I think that what that's got to tell you is that we have a long way to go to getting inflation down where the Fed has said that it wants it to be. We don't know where this is, how this is all going to play out. But for my money, the best single measure of core underlying inflation is to look at wages. It's interesting. That's what Paul Krugman acknowledged today when he said that he was shaken in his views by these numbers. And I think what this is telling us is that the Fed's got a long way to go.
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I suspect they're going to need more increases in interest rates than the market is now judging or than they are now saying. Look, every time they revise their forecast of inflation up and they regard revise their forecast of ultimate unemployment up as well. And gosh, we've all been at the airport and they say it's leaving at seven thirty and then they say it's leaving at eight thirty and then they say it's leaving at nine thirty. And when I see that happen, I think it's leaving at 11:00. And it's something like that with these economic forecasts. So I hope I'm wrong, but my sense is that inflation is going to be a little more sustained than what people are looking for. And my sense also is that it's much harder than many people think to achieve a soft landing because there are all these mechanisms that kick in. At a certain point, consumers run out of their savings. And then you have a Wile E. Coyote kind of moment where consumption falls off. At a certain point, people start putting their houses on the market and then you see house prices falling and then other people rush to put them on the market. At a certain point, you see credit drying up and when credit dries up, people can't pay back their old their old borrowing.
So there is this proposition we've talked about before on this show, David. It's called Sahm's Rule that says that when the unemployment rate goes up by half a percent, it goes up by more than 2 percent. And that's because once you get into a negative situation, there's an avalanche aspect. And I think we have a real risk that that's going to happen at some point.
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It's priced into the market a little below five. I think that's got to be low or likely to be low because I always try to look for possible errors and four seems almost impossible. And six is certainly a scenario we can write. And that tells me that 5 is not a good best guess for where it's going to be. In terms of what will happen, I guess I think there's an old saying that things happen faster than you think they will. They don't happen as fast as you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. And I think that may be the way it is with the downturn. I don't know when it's going to come, but when it kicks in, I suspect it will be fairly forceful.
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First of all, I think it's important to understand that having failed for a while to hit 2 percent, it's kind of problematic then to declare that it's no longer our goal, even if it was a somewhat arbitrary goal in the first place.
Second, we've already backed away from the 2 percent, in a sense. We've been for years, well above 2 percent and nobody's saying we should swing below 2 percent, so it all averages out to be 2. So, in some sense, we're already not really trying for a 2 percent average inflation target. We're trying for a 2 percent minimum inflation target and that's different than what we originally set out to. So, we've already ease.
Third, if we settle in for a 3 percent inflation target, then where do we think it's going to go? Presumably there's going to be a low point of inflation in this cycle, David. And from that low point, it will rise. So saying 3 percent as a target for what we're disinflating to isn't saying 3 percent is an average for the next cycle. So what I think we should do is stay with the 2 percent target, recognize in as I think is surely right, that that's going to be a low point, not an average. But I think that's all right.
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When the data don't tell you what you want to hear, you have to listen. I was a lot more optimistic about near-term inflation at 8:29 this morning than I am now https://t.co/uNFrUXElrK
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