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China Designs an Economic Road Map All the Way to 2029

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HONG KONG – There can hardly be a better place to track the four-day, twice-a-decade plenum of the Communist Party of China than dynamic, “one country, two systems” Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is right at the heart of East Asia – halfway between Northeast Asia (Japan, the Koreas) and Southeast Asia. To the west is not only China but the Eurasia landmass, linking it to India, Persia, Turkiye and Europe. To the east, sailing forward, is the Pacific and the US’s West Coast.

Moreover, Hong Kong is the ultimate multipolar, multi-nodal (italics mine) hub: a frenzied global metropolis forged by trade routes going back centuries, attracting people from every latitude keen on interconnecting commerce, ideas, technologies, shipping, commodities, markets.

Now, reinvented for 21stcentury Eurasia integration, Hong Kong has all it takes to profit as a key node of the Greater Bay Area, the southern hub propelling China to economic superpower status.

The plenum in Beijing was a quite serious/sober affair – trying to strike a balance between sustainable economic growth and national security all the way to 2029, when the PRC celebrates its 80th anniversary.

The proverbial comprador elites, 5th columnists and outright Sinophobes across the West have gone bonkers on the current slowdown of the Chinese economy – complete with slumps in the financial and property fronts – running in parallel to all hybrid war strands of Chinese containment emanating from Washington.

Fact: China’s GDP grew roughly 5% in the first semester; and the final plenum communique, released at the end of the four-day meeting, stressed that this should remain the “unwavering” target for the second semester.

The official rhetoric of course was heavy on stimulation of domestic consumption, and “new momentum” to drive exports and imports.

This key passage in the final communique breaks it all down when it comes to the new iteration of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”:

“We must purposefully give more prominence to reform and further deepen reform comprehensively with a view to advancing Chinese modernization in order to better deal with the complex developments both at home and abroad, adapt to the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and live up to the new expectations of our people.

It was stressed that, to further deepen reform comprehensively, we must stay committed to Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development and fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.

We must thoroughly study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s new ideas, viewpoints, and conclusions on comprehensively deepening reform and fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts.”

And to make it more simple, Xi actually explained it all in some detail.

Those Pesky ‘Markets’

Nowhere around the world one finds a government focused on devising five-year plans for economic development (Russia now seems to be engaged in its first attempts) – encompassing development of rural land, tax reform, environmental protection, national security, the fight against corruption, and cultural development.

When the term “reform” appears no less than 53 times in the final communique, that means – contrary to Western proselytism – that the CPC is dead set on improving governance and increasing efficiency. And all those targets must be met – otherwise heads will roll.

Science and technology will once again have pride of place in China’s development, a sort of follow-up to the Made in China 2025 strategy. The emphasis predictably will be on better integration of the digital economy into the real economy; infrastructure upgrading; and boosting “resilience” in the industrial supply chain.

It’s fascinating to watch how the communique emphasizes the necessity to “correct market failures” – which is a euphemism for reigning in turbo-neoliberalism. What is stressed is “unswerving support and guidance” to the development of the “non-state sector”, with Beijing ensuring “all forms of ownership” in the economy competing fairly and lawfully “on an equal footing”.

The plenum could be easily interpreted as a calculated exercise in Taoist patience. According to Xie Maosong, from the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, “Xi said many times that the easy part of the reform is over, and now we are in uncharted waters. The party must watch its step, particularly as the external risks build. We are also touching the vested interests of many groups.”

Of course turbo-capitalist Hong Kong’s main obsession is “markets”. Conversations with British traders scouting Asia for their clients reveal they are not so keen on investing in China – yet that does not faze Beijing’s planners. What matters for the Politburo is how to meet the economic, social, environmental and geopolitical targets set by Xi for the next five years. It’s up to the markets to adapt to it.

Of course Beijing planners are already factoring Trump in the overall equation. The Western mantra that China’s economy is struggling to stabilize may be debatable. Yet China’s economy may be in fact in a more precarious position now than when Trump unleashed his trade war in mid-2018. The yuan may seem to be under more pressure because of the gap between US and Chinese borrowing costs.

According to a JPMorgan estimate, every 1% tariff hike during the 2018-2019 period of the US-launched trade war was linked to a 0.7% rise of the US dollar versus the yuan.

Trump plans to impose a 60% tariff on virtually all Chinese products. That would lead to an exchange rate of roughly 9 yuan to the dollar, 25% weaker than now.

Now Read the Whole Thing and Get to Work

It’s enlightening to check what Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, said about the plenum. He encouraged “all sectors of the community” to read the communique. And the Hong Kong business elite did get the drift: they interpreted it as Beijing betting once again on Hong Kong’s key role for the development of the Greater Bay Area.

It would not be any other way. Hong Kong, Lee stressed, is a “superconnector” and “super value-adder”, linking mainland China with the Global North and the Global South, and still attracting all sorts of foreign investment to China.

ORDER IT NOW

Now compare it with the predominant view on Hong Kong in US business circles. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong is appalled, stressing how US businessmen in fact don’t understand the Safeguarding National Security directive approved last March, which complemented the National Security Law installed by Beijing in 2020.

For Beijing, these are very serious matters of national security – which range from a crackdown on money laundering to preventing the proverbial 5th columnists from launching a color revolution such as the one that nearly destroyed Hong Kong in 2019. No wonder so many American investors cannot get it. Beijing couldn’t care less.

Now let’s see what China’s top mutual fund manager has to say about it.

Zhang Kun, manager of Blue Chip Mixed Fund, runs four funds with combined assets of $8.9 billion. He prefers to set his sights on Beijing’s aim to boost per capita GDP to match the West by 2035.

If that happens, with or without a US trade war – and the Chinese won’t stop at nothing to achieve it – then per capita GDP could be around $ 30,000 (it was $12,300 last year, according to Chinese think tanks).

So foreign investment will continue to be welcomed in China, via Hong Kong or not. But on each and every front, what trumps everything is national security. Call it a practical exercise in sovereignty.

(Republished from Sputnik by permission of author or representative)
•�Category: Economics, Foreign Policy •�Tags: China, China/America
The China/America Series
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  1. Carney says:

    Yeah, Communist regimes’ Five-Year Plans always work out great.

    •�Agree: SteveK9, JR Foley
    •�Replies: @Decoy
  2. Pythas says:

    Ya I’m impressed also. Gee European and American man can we have all your scientific, technological, and industrial inventions over the past 600 years.

  3. Notsofast says:

    isn’t it ironic, that hong kong, created by literal gunboat diplomacy, to give the perfidious albion, a center for their drug trade, has become such an important economic engine in chinas amazing societal resurgence. chinas infinite patience payed off, when these limey bastard’s lease was up, and was not renewed. these hypocritical imperialist drug dealers, had the nerve to complain that the chinese were not allowing their former vassals “democratic” governance, while never having given them a say in their own countries political affairs.

    in addition to infinite patience, the chinese have long memories and know full well who was responsible for their century of humiliation. like the russians the chinese have great skill at defeating their enemies, while playing within the rules imposed upon them, that these drug dealing klepocrats don’t follow themselves. the rest of the world is lining up behind the new brics based order as a result and the city of london is losing it’s supremacy and being exposed as the money laundering ponzi scheme that it is.

    when the shit hits the fan and the quadrillion dollar derivates market implodes, the entire british empire will collapse like a house of cards. this is why it is so important to draw china into a military confrontation before the air comes out of their ponzi balloon. both the chinese and russians understand, that the zato biological war, these pirates launched in 2020 with their covid bioweapon, could be countered peacefully, merely by beating them at their own crooked game, and exposing them as the fraudsters that they are.

    china’s patience may not be as infinite as it appears though, they will not allow taiwan, to be turned into ukraine, where zato found out you can only poke the bear so many times, before you get the stick shoved up your ass.

    •�Thanks: SafeNow, JR Foley, Joe Levantine
    •�Replies: @Joe Levantine
    , @Godly10
  4. SteveK9 says:

    Even more meaningless drivel from Pepé than usual.

    •�Replies: @dogbumbreath
    , @Anonymous
  5. the Chinese won’t stop at nothing

    Will China stop? No, it won’t stop.
    Will China stop at something? No, it won’t stop at anything.
    Will China stop at something? No, it will stop at nothing.
    China no se detendrá ante nada.

  6. SafeNow says:

    https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.m-RHQm4suuA7D1fflKmV2AHaFs%26pid%3DApi&f=1&ipt=41f6c8798cb5e3a95561d21fade4c1b87b1c76ec886200bfd06d1760bcd68d83&ipo=images

    “China Lake” by Zhao Bandi, Chinese contemporary artist. The people are prosperous and happy. But at the same time, they are all immersed in that lake, representing a unifying and constraining force of government. It is shallow and not drowning them, but still, this is not a completely comfortable thing. Thus, a criticism, a negative, of government. But in China, one can buy this print in a museum store, and hang it up in one’s home or workplace, and discuss it with friends. In woke-curated U.S. museum stores, would a reprint critical of the government narrative be offered for sale?

    •�Troll: picture111
  7. The only way the communist “West” can beat back China is by going back to its prior socio-economic model—i.e. recognizing that economic prosperity and technological and scientific advancement are created by a hundred million well educated individuals who are afforded the figurative and literal space to do it at their own pace.

    Instead, the West began rapidly adopting the totalitarian Chinese model, starting with its draconian lockdowns during COVID. This may well have been motivated, or at least justified on the basis of the stream of unverifiable propaganda that started to emerge from the pinko government, claiming that their totalitarian model alone was the shining beacon of hope in the world, as they alone were able to keep the number of related deaths at levels that the rest of the world, and especially the “free” world could only dream of.

    Several years later, it is obvious that much of that propaganda turned out to be lies, built on a foundation of unrealistic assertions that could not be independently disproven (by now, the standard Chinese practice of asking for excuse tomorrow rather than permission today should be widely understood—although in reality, it goes more along the lines of asking to go fvck yourself tomorrow, rather than for permission today, TBH).

    Anyway, the West bought China’s lies hook, line, and sinker

    •�Troll: picture111
    •�Replies: @xcd
  8. John Dael says:

    “America is now infected with all the symptoms of an Empire near collapse – a tumble precipitated by America’s obsession with the needs of the racist Jewish state to reconfigure the Middle East to benefit the Apartheid country. In the process, the US got blindsided while China and Russia became powerhouses themselves, ready to knock the US Empire off its perch.

    “Such happenstance is truly God’s doing to impede the Evil American Empire, as wagged by the Evil State of Israel, to become much worse than it already has.”

    https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/israel-the-scourge-of-empires/

    •�Agree: picture111
  9. JasonT says:

    China is symbolized by the Dragon, which is Satan the serpent. As God turns his back on the Western world because the Western world turned its back on God, China will ascend to prominence. When the Beast Power rises in Europe, with the backing of China, and the U.S. (along with the other English speaking countries and the secular state of Israel) are destroyed by the Beast Power, God will gather the remnants of His people together in the return of the Lord to set things back to His will.

    •�Replies: @picture111
  10. @SteveK9

    Even more meaningless drivel from Pepé than usual.

    Then why are you here?

  11. Decoy says:
    @Carney

    Something is working out in China. Its government has produced the greatest economic 40 year period in world history. The U.S. had a great run from 1945 to about 2008, but did not come close to what China accomplished for its citizens. Give credit where credit is due. It’s not the form of government that I would chose to live in, but (for the past 40 years) it’s worked well over there.

    •�Agree: Carlton Meyer
    •�Replies: @Carney
    , @xcd
  12. I think everybody should read this article.
    Because laughing is good for health.

    •�Troll: picture111
  13. Unz.com

    needs a proper China critic.

    Repeat, proper.

    •�Replies: @Deep Thought
  14. @Notsofast

    “ isn’t it ironic, that hong kong, created by literal gunboat diplomacy, to give the perfidious albion, a center for their drug trade, has become such an important economic engine in chinas amazing societal resurgence.”

    Can we call it the “cunning of reason”, where evil’s nefarious purposes transform into servicing the World Spirit, or shall we call it the greater good. The British colonised a rock and had to abandon it after it metamorphosed into a world trading hub. Confucian patience does teach the world quite some valuable lessons.

    Sometime between 2030 and 2035, Shanghai is bound to replace The City of London as the financial capital of the world. China’s steady progress based on a vibrant manufacturing sector and her state of the art infrastructure, combined with Western declining military clout and unplayable debt, will indeed take the last bit of air out of the Western Ponzi scheme.

    Thanks for a great post that reminds us of the wickedness of British Imperialism.

    •�Thanks: Notsofast
    •�Replies: @mulga mumblebrain
  15. Anonymous[141] •�Disclaimer says:
    @SteveK9

    I am always impressed with the Chinese intelligence. I am reminded of when I was in the Navy in the 1960s. Prior to visiting Hong Kong then, “old salts” warned us greenhorn sailors that when buying souvenirs, etc. from street corner vendors, to always halve the asking price to get a reasonable price.
    I was not surprised to see that the vendors were asking, what appeared to me , to be the quadrupled price.
    I also remembered the wise words of some smart guy who described the words of some gravestone reading, “here lies the body of some fool who tried to outhustle the East”.

  16. I see our CIA’s intense anti-China propaganda effort has worked well on many commentators here. They’ve never been to modern China and know little about it, but when they encounter something positive about China, their programming forces them to denounce it as false.

    •�Agree: mulga mumblebrain
    •�Replies: @vox4non
    , @xcd
  17. Carney says:
    @Decoy

    Going from Mao’s death to today, the improvement is indeed startling and impressive.

    But the thing is, that’s coming from an extreme low that was completely unnecessary and artificially imposed. The utter misery of China from 1949 to 1976 was not normal or natural, but the result of Communist economic crackpottery of the most radical kind and which was the equivalent of pushing a tightly inflated beachball down under the water. When the most-Mao government eased up on the pressure, naturally the beachball popped up, but that was less of an “achievement” for the regime to boast of than a reduction of the regime’s interference with the already-existing inherent high intelligence, work ethic, and entrepeneurial energy of the Chinese people.

    You can see in all the areas outside CCP control how the Chinese can achieve without being suppressed by Communism. Taiwan’s economy was larger (not just per capita, larger OVERALL) than that of vastly larger and more populous CCP-controlled mainland for many decades — and Taiwan was an authoritarian dictatorship for most of that time. Similarly, the Chinese in Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, Indonesia, and throughout the diaspora in Western countries have prospered. Indeed, as Thomas Sowell has shown, the Chinese throughout Southeast Asia have historically functioned as a “middleman minority”, economically outperforming the local majority ethnic groups and attracting resentment and (often state-imposed) discrimination as a result, much like the Lebanese in West Africa and South America, the Arabs and Indians in East Africa, and the Jews in Europe and the USA.

    All you have to do to get Chinese to prosper is to get out of their way and leave them alone, but it took decades for the Beijing regime to finally let itself do that to some degree.

    And now, it’s backsliding on even that. Xi is reviving the Mao-style cult of personality, increasingly meddling in the economy, and more. He’s strangling the goose that laid the golden eggs. China’s breakneck growth has slowed, even going by (questionable) official statistics.

    And given its demographic collapse it’s likely that China will now grow old before it grows rich – in other words, it may never catch up to the West on a per-capita or standard of living basis. The other Asian tigers managed to grow rich decades ago, before their demographic crises kicked in. It’s probably too late for China now.

    Add in the following looming catastrophes:

    the workforce collapsing especially fast compared to other nations given China being decades behind the West etc on reducing smoking. Vast numbers of white collar workers in their peak middle age earning years are going to have reduced productivity, or dropping out of the workforce overall, due to smoking-related illness and death.

    This will be exacerbated by China’s continued embrace of quackery (so-called “Traditional Chinese Medicine”) which serves solely to divert finite resources and patient treatment opportunity away from actual medicine to useless or counter-productive nonsense. Imagine if the Western medical system still insisted on treating Galen’s “Four Humours” as valid and incorporated all that nonsense into our medical schools, hospitals, etc. The irony is that the Communist Party purports to practice “scientific socialism” and under Mao carried out a crusade against the “Four Olds” (ideas, culture, customs, and habits) – much of which was demented lunacy (burning literature, smashing art, demolishing historically important buildings, etc). Stamping out such superstitious and destructive nonsense as “TCM” would have been a far better goal of such a campaign, yet the regime both under Mao and fully to this day continues to endorse and push it.

    This will be exacerbated even more by China’s decades of pollution and tainted food. And the explosion of obesity will further hinder the ability of the collapsing young generation to be as productive and healthy.

    And the regime has also set up gigantic bubbles that will inevitably pop. First, in the area of real estate. By artificially manipulating the economy so as to steer excessive portions of personal savings and investment into real estate development and speculation, China has set up vast empty developments, even entire ghost cities, that make the Florida condo scene look booming. Second, because of the continued existence of state-owned enterprises and the presence of important Party and Army bosses in important areas of the economy like banking, steel, and more, there are vast numbers of gigantic, money-losing “zombie” companies propped up by the taxpayers to prevent a short term spike in unemployment, but delaying the reckoning simply magnifies the disaster when that arrives. Japan has never recovered from the 1989 collapse of its economy when the massive bad debt in its banking sector became unsustainable, and China’s situation is even bigger.

    Communist countries excel in rapidly-constructed impressive showcase projects, but do poorly at quality, long-term maintenance and sustainability. And even if the glittering skyscrapers, high-speed rail lines, sprawling airports etc that wow visitors now don’t suffer a precipitous decline making the crumbling malaise of 1970s USA and UK look paradisaical, the other factors I’ve mentioned above will combine to do catastrophic damage.

    And then there’s war.

    Xi is steadily alienating countries around the world. His “Belt and Road” initiative is turning into a boondoggle and fiasco of maximum scale; China is unlikely to ever get a return on these prestige-project investments (much like the rusting rail lines and abandoned towns in post-Soviet Siberia), and to the extent it seeks to use that debt for strategic leverage it will simply cause Third World nations to turn to the West. His insistence on continuing to escalate the rhetoric and tension with his neighbors, especially Taiwan, risks a war he cannot afford.

    China’s elites are already desperate to get their money and families out of the PRC, forcing the regime to impose increasingly strict limits on outflow, in turn escalating the incentives and desperation. The moment a war breaks out or looks inevitable, that pressure will skyrocket. For the vast majority of Chinese and foreign investors in China who cannot pull their money out, they will at least seek to unload their assets; and with vast numbers of sellers chasing fewer and more reluctant buyers, there will be a massive crash in the value of all assets, wiping out life savings and destroying vast numbers of companies and jobs. Even worse, nobody will be willing to carry out shipping through an active naval war zone, collapsing the trade China relies on for its economic lifeblood. Dried-up exports collapse revenue, and dried-up imports — most especially oil — means not only China’s economy but its war effort are on a sharply limited and declining time limit.

    Xi is a combination of Kaiser Wilhelm and Mao Lite; his regime will make an absolute wreck of China’s economy one way or the other.

  18. Souza says:

    President Xi Jinping “socialism with Chinese characteristics” reminds me of President Hugo Chavez and his famous announcement (in 2005 here in Brazil) of “socialism of the 21st century in Venezuela”. It’s unbelievable that President Xi has unveiled his explanations: if you read it, any doubt that China is a dictatorship will vanish. 1.4 billion people can do nothing but accept the decisions and guiding principles (full of platitudes) laid down by the CPC Central Committee.
    I’m an ordinary citizen from South America but the most peculiar phrase in President Xi’s document is, quote: “black swan and gray rhino events have the potential to occur at any time”.
    The late President Hugo Chavez also let the deep U.S. state actors poison him.
    The same destiny awaits Russia President Vladimir Putin, as extensively written by Professor Paul Craig Roberts (PCR): he is a statesman (a businessman I would add) but not a war leader.
    All three unfortunately are (were in case of Chavez) not war leaders. That’s why Imperialism still runs the show (also in Hong Kong, an arm of the City of London shadow money).
    The genocidal Joseph Stalin (member of the – quintet – Genocidal Squad: Hiroito, Churchill, Hitler, FDR and Stalin) was a wartime leader and defeated Nazi Germany!
    On the contrary, President Putin confessed that between 100K and 200K Russians died (considering his rationale of 1 to 5 and official estimations that between 500K and 1mn Ukrainians have already died in the war). Stalin told his “comrades in arms” FDR and Churchill that 7.5 million soviets had perished (roughly 20% of the real figures). This is a simple example, as mentioned, please read PCR in this respect.
    P.S: Everybody around the Globe makes a five year plan!

  19. @Carney

    Note that ethnic Chinese are 2% of the population but control half of commerce in the Philippines, so don’t expect that nation to side with us in a war, especially after they suffered in World War II as a battleground.

    as Thomas Sowell has shown, the Chinese throughout Southeast Asia have historically functioned as a “middleman minority”, economically outperforming the local majority ethnic groups and attracting resentment and (often state-imposed) discrimination as a result

    When the Americans arrived to establish a colony in southern Vietnam in the 1950s, ethnic Chinese were 5% of the population yet controlled more than half of commerce. The CIA’s Landsdale launched an anti-communist propaganda campaign to demonize Chinese. This led to attacks on local Chinese and their businesses, causing most to flee Vietnam or move northward. This and other CIA bungling caused economic disaster in the south, as explained in this short video.


    Video Link

  20. @Carney

    Plenteous words used to justify an emotional response against the Yellow Peril.

    Why waste the breath? Just wait another 20 years and see if China has yet collapsed. Don’t be surprised to find out then that China’s GDP is 2X that of the USA.

    •�Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Carney
  21. vox4non says:
    @Carlton Meyer

    Indeed, how can they have eyes and yet not see? This is all a larger setup to manufacture consent for the next war, for the benefit of the military-industrial complex.

    The remedy, if they can make themselves do it, is to take a trip across at least these 4 cities – Shanghai (modern financial centre), Beijing (Capital city), Xi’an (Ancient Capital), and Chongqing (one of the largest municipality at 30 million) to see how the Chinese lived and live. That should be a good starter kit to see for themselves.

  22. vox4non says:
    @Carney

    Much of what you perceive is through your own lenses. Are you not in the danger of projecting onto China? The West is suffering in a quagmire of its own making, yet there’s no shortage of people who will exhort, nay harangue, China. There is almost a pathological need to interfere in another country’s working and that hasn’t worked out well for the West.

    The Chinese population (TFR ~1.09) may shrink but given their size, it would take a century or so before it really becomes a problem (You might want to check South Korea (TFR ~0.7) for a real depopulation). Nonetheless, robotics has a substantial footprint in its industry (Top 5: South Korea, Singapore, Germany, Japan, China).
    https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/global-robotics-race-korea-singapore-and-germany-in-the-lead.

    If I were you, I would worry more about the West demographics. In addition to the low native TFR, there is a large amount of births from non-traditional countries. Already, you can see in the cities where there is a greater heterogeneity of population. And many of them don’t share common values and norms with you. When the next crisis strikers, will the centre hold?

    Nowhere is perfect, but the Chinese seem to have worked out something for themselves. They don’t wish to export their form of governance, unlike the Americans who are eager to export “democracy”. Each year, 100 million Chinese tourists leave the country and return. If they were so unhappy, why would they return?

    Talking about interdiction, you talk about China as if it was as helpless as it was, in the early 20th century. Americans, long complacent in the safety of the two oceans, forget that there are now means to bring the pain of war right into their homes. Ask yourself how close the US carriers now approach China’s coast. Quite unlike the 1990s where a carrier can sail through the Taiwan Straits.

    Hmm, if you’ve been keeping abreast of current affairs resource-wise, you would’ve known there is the Power of Siberia 2 to deliver more oil/gas to China from Russia, and the link up to Iran via the Caspian sea should keep them out of the US’ grasp.

    As the latest geopolitical events have shown, the global south is moving away from the diktats of the West, and sanctions can be blunted or even ignored as in the case of Russia.

    People in Asia still remember what the West did during the Asian Financial Crisis, and the hypocritical turnaround when the Great Financial Crisis happened, when the US and European central banks came to the rescue of the too-big-to-fail banks.

    •�Replies: @Carney
    , @xcd
  23. Anonymous[242] •�Disclaimer says:
    @littlereddot

    wait another 20 years and see if China has yet collapsed. Don’t be surprised to find out then that China’s GDP is 2X that of the USA

    2X the size of the U.S. GDP? – Oh, you mean in exchange rate, artificially manipulated terms.

    Chine’s real GDP is already larger than the U.S. now. They overtook us in actual economic production 9 years ago. Now it’s at least 57% bigger, likely more.

    In 20 years, even with slow growth? Probably 3X as large as ours, and with multiple times our industrial capacity.

    Just calling it like I see it.

    •�Replies: @littlereddot
  24. Carney says:
    @vox4non

    Yes, white countries, Japan and South Korea all have demographic collapse also looming, but, as I already said but which you apparently missed, all these countries are ALREADY RICH. China is not. China delayed the start of its economic growth for over 30 years while mired in Maoist madness, and as a result its per capita GDP is only about half that First World countries. It’s run out of time, and it will grow old with the rest of us but without having been able to grow rich enough first.

    Water transport is, has been, and likely always will be the cheapest way to move goods. China’s oil imports are overwhelmingly over water as a result. Its pipelines and other attempts to import oil over land over its western borders are miniscule in comparison, and even if it ruined its entire economy with a massive effort at expanding this infrastructure, moving that oil would still be massively more expensive than importing it via land. China is in a vice like grip, and due to the stranglehold that the massive state-owned oil company has on its politics, and due to its lack of innovative thinking, it’s all its own fault.

    China is nearly unique in being a large industrial nation that automobilized very late. It had the luxury of having the opportunity of looking around the world and learning lessons. Brazil in the 1980s mandated that all cars sold in that country (sold, not just made, so as to include imports) be either solely made to run on ethanol, or at least be flexible fueled vehicles that, while gasoline-compatible, are also ethanol-compatible as well. Just about every major automaker operates in Brazil, and all of them quietly complied with this requirement which, as it turns out, is very cheap, even trivial, to comply with. As a result, Brazil is largely immune to oil shocks. China could have put in place a similar requirement, in particular one to make cars compatible with a similar alcohol fuel, methanol (with an M), which is most easily and cheaply made from natural gas but also can be made from a resource China has in abundance: coal (and coal-to-methanol is much more cheaply done than coal-to-gasoline).

    One of the major purported benefits of an authoritarian regime is that it is able to simply mandate things, and able to make and carry out long-term plans without regard for public opinion, short-term special interest opposition, or fear of running out of time and losing power. And yet on this all-important macro economic and geostrategic issue, China just mindlessly walked into the same bear trap as everyone else did.

    US carriers might now have to keep their distance from China’s coastline, but that’s irrelevant to the fact that Chinese waters becoming a war zone will deter trade. Cheap mines, missiles, torpedoes, and drones will make shipping too risky if not impossible, and further away from China there are choke points like the Straits of Malacca that will enable the US and its allies to step on China’s air hose.

  25. Carney says:
    @littlereddot

    China has 4X the USA’s population. So if it only has 2X the USA’s GDP, it’s still much, MUCH poorer.

    •�Replies: @littlereddot
  26. @Carney

    As a result, Brazil is largely immune to oil shocks. China could have put in place a similar requirement, in particular one to make cars compatible with a similar alcohol fuel, methanol (with an M),

    I remember watching a video in which David Goldman says that China aims to phase out all ICE cars sometime next decade and replaces them with EV’s which, of course, will be indirectly powered by the Sun.

  27. Carney says:
    @Carney

    Its pipelines and other attempts to import oil over land over its western borders are miniscule in comparison, and even if it ruined its entire economy with a massive effort at expanding this infrastructure, moving that oil would still be massively more expensive than importing it via land.

    OOPS. I meant moving that oil via land would still be massively more expensive than importing it via WATER.

  28. Godly10 says:
    @Notsofast

    “Democracy” is just a shell-game Western crypto-kikes use to stack the deck. It’s a classic “rules for thee but not for me” arrangement.

    •�Agree: littlereddot
  29. @Anonymous

    2X the size of the U.S. GDP?

    Well, I was just being conservative. It could be much larger.

    If we use Taiwan’s per capita GDP, then it would be in the region of 3X – 4X
    If we use Singapore’s per capita GDP, then it would be in the region of 5X – 6X
    If we factor in the collapse of the Petrodollar/decrease in value of the USD, then 10X is not unimaginable.

    •�Replies: @question
  30. @Carney

    We are talking about countries and what they can bring to bear….not the individual man in the street.

    Besides, I was being conservative. I cut an paste a reply I gave to another commentor:

    If we use Taiwan’s per capita GDP, then it would be in the region of 3X – 4X
    If we use Hong Kongs’s per capita GDP, then it would be in the region of 4X – 5X
    If we use Macau’s per capita GDP, then it would be in the region of 5X – 6X
    If we use Singapore’s per capita GDP, then it would be in the region of 5X – 6X
    If we factor in the collapse of the Petrodollar/decrease in value of the USD, then 10X is not unimaginable.

    China is just getting started, in 20 years, it will more like the other ethnic Chinese based economies listed above….which are themselves currently also early in the game.

    Which one to compare with, is arguable….but they all are either on par, or already exceed the USA.

  31. question says:
    @littlereddot

    a proxy for gdp is energy consumption. GDP for a country like the US is somewhat suspect because of finance distortion. “Energy is the currency of the real economy.”

    Energy usage: https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

    Scroll down part way, to get recent energy consumption, on map, 2023.

    China:USA is about 1.8

    Further down is electricity generation, China is over 2:1 to US. About 2.2:1

    And see growth in energy usage: China growing, US shrinking. (annual change graphic)

    •�Replies: @littlereddot
  32. @question

    Yes, you bring up a good point,

    Please forgive me if I go off in a slight tangent….This is an especially interesting one, because energy consumption data has to be used with caution….it too can be distorted due to cultural attitudes towards use of resources.

    If I remember correctly figures that I dug up some time ago, the average American uses twice the average European. And the average European uses twice the average Chinese.

    So the per capita energy use for the US vs China is 4 X !!!!!
    ….all while China is being the factory of the world????

    What I find intriguing is not so much the actual precise numbers, but the disproportionate use by Americans VS Chinese.

    In my opinion, the reason is political + cultural.
    The reason also overlaps with why the Chinese based economies are performing strongly.

    But a discussion of this would get too long, so I will not get into that now.

  33. vox4non says:
    @Carney

    So, what’s your metric of rich? Beverly Hills rich? Middle class rich?
    A living wage per annum in the top 5 US states range from Hawaii USD112,411, Massachusetts USD87,909, California USD80,013, New York USD73,226, Alaska USD71,570; with the lowest being Mississippi USD45,906.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/the-salary-a-single-person-needs-to-get-by-in-every-us-state.html
    The US per capita GDP by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is USD73, 637. Given that the a large number of Americans live in California and New York, they don’t seem to be particularly rich.
    A living wage in Shanghai, China would be about per annum CNY61,368 (USD8,556).
    https://www.globallivingwage.org/living-wage-benchmarks/urban-shanghai-china/
    China’s per capita GDP by PPP is USD22,135. At this difference, I think they feel they are rich enough.

    Another metric is the Gini coefficient (the higher the score the worst). The USA has 41.4% whereas China has 38.5%. The Europeans are better with scores from 34.7% to 24.6%.
    https://www.datapandas.org/ranking/gini-coefficient-by-country

    Based on current trends, I would say that China is in a better position to overtake the OECD nations.

    Hmm, so a continuous pipe that can supply me fuel 24/7 is more expensive than a ship?
    An Ultra-large Crude Carrier (ULCC) ship can carry between 1.9 to 2.2 million barrels of fuel.
    In comparison, the existing Power of Siberia can supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) / (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum of gas to China. The upcoming Power of Siberia 2 will supply another 30 bcm annually.
    To supply 38 bcm using an ULCC, you need either 17,272 ships or trips. Given the increasing costs of running a ship and the fuel itself to make the trip – how is it cheaper in the long run?

    Of course, there is always hazard in centralised planning. However, I suspect the choice they made based on local availability (they have large rare earth deposits), and the EV helps in reducing road and noise pollution.

    Why do you think China thought up the One Belt One Road (or Belt Road Initiative) – looking at a map, I’m sure they could figure out the vulnerabilities in the current sea lanes of communication (SLOC). Perhaps you may not be aware, but China is working with Russia to work out an arctic route. I’m sure any attempt to step there may be greeted by a Kinzhal or two.

  34. xcd says:
    @judgement knights of thunder

    Did China government officials oversee the killing citizens or making them invalids, en masse, to enrich cronies?

  35. xcd says:
    @Decoy

    If we give credit where due, 10s of millions of propagandists would be out of work for start. Then, disgruntled citizens might start abusing and then attacking the parasite pretenders.

  36. xcd says:
    @Carlton Meyer

    Simple slogans are comforting. They may even flip. In Animal Farm, “4 legs good, 2 legs bad” became “4 legs good, 2 legs better”.

  37. xcd says:
    @vox4non

    Putting aside the paid shills, the dogmatic denigration of China – even after covid -shows the success of propaganda. Most people in the “free” West including G7 are sinking deeper into dung. Yet the ridicule and hatred they are encouraged to spout distracts them from their misery and enslavement.

    •�Replies: @vox4non
  38. vox4non says:
    @xcd

    Exactly. The western population was “dumbed” down so that they won’t question and think for themselves.

    Then slowly drain them of financial independence so that they remain dependent on a larger entity to sustain them, and if necessary to force them into action through threats of deprivation (loss of jobs).

    Of course, using panem et circenses (L: Bread and circuses) in the form of mass entertainment and social media to control, distract and muzzle discontent and give them mental opiates. If that doesn’t work, given them the actual stuff – why the rush to legalise drug use?

    With no one to question, or the means to challenge the elite, the general Western population can be directed as needed to either be cash cows or cannon fodder.

  39. @Carney

    China’s economy grew at an annual rate under Mao by approximately as much as it did after him, but from the lowest base imaginable. They first had to repair the damage of two hundred years of turmoil and destruction, end illiteracy, raise life expectancy from less than forty to nearly seventy, emancipate women, end theocratic tyranny in Tibet and establish the basis for the later industrial surge.
    As one expects from nassty Judaic goy-haters like you, you have a particular animus towards China, because it proves, daily, the stupidity of Jewish claims to universal intellectual supremacy.
    China moves a lot of oil and gas by land because that’s easier from Siberia, and the Yankee fascists have long proclaimed that they will cut off sea-lanes during war. One has to be spectacularly stupid and pig ignorant not to know that. But your comments on automobiles may be the stupidest you’ve yet produced. China is now the world’s leading car producer and exporter-Brazil is not. China is turning its automobile fleet electric at break-neck speed, and, in face has reached 50% BEV purchases, of the total monthly sales, in recent months, four years ahead of schedule. But, unsurprisingly, you are a primitive fossil fuels nut-job, ie a climate destroyer, which the Chinese, being intelligent and informed, are not.
    Your masturbatory fantasies of the USA ‘stepping on China’s hose’ show, clearly, your racist blood-lust, but in the event of war in China’s neighbourhood, seeing as China is the world’s leading trading nation by far, that would trigger an economic collapse, globally, unlike any before, and, apart from anything else, the US Navy would be sunk as far off as Hawaii, the US stooge bases in occupied Okinawa, the Philippines, Guam etc, would be obliterated, and the low-paid masses in the USA would no longer have cheap products from China to consume, and that means civil war in the USA. You really are one dumbfuck racist.

  40. @Carney

    Dear me-this racist pig must be paid by the word. The swine begins by lying about China from 1949 to 1976.
    China, in 1949 was utterly devastated after two hundred years of decline, civil war, invasion, Japanese genocide and Western Imperialism. By 1976 China had repaired ALL that and created the industrial base for the later explosion of capacity, despite US economic warfare and subversion, raised life expectancy from less that forty to nearly seventy, ended illiteracy, emancipated women, freed Tibet from theocratic barbarity and defeated the USA in Korea. Shove that up your lying cloaca, troll.
    And it quotes the mega Uncle Tom, Sowell-the House Negro par excellence!! He just lerves kissing Jewish posteriors, so I guess that explains your adulation.
    The rest is a collection of dullities from a nullity. China’s growth has slowed, cretin, because it is so big. It’s called a law of large numbers. An economy four times bigger cannot grow as fast as before, because the raw materials, labour, transport, even markets, cannot grow by that amount. Five percent growth in an economy twice as large adds just as much production and consumption as before. Are you REALLY this moronic? Labour force collapse secondary to smoking? Where’d you get that one? Epoch Times or Peter Zeihan’s arse-hole? In any case as China is the world’s leader in automation, robotisation, computerisation etc of production, it doesn’t need as many people. They can visit the world as tourists, 140 million in the year before the US CoViD19 bio-warfare attack on China.
    The rest is a farrago of deranged, hate-crazed, racist lies. Perhaps you are Peter Zeihan after all. The happy fact is that China will NOT be derailed by evil, racist, psychopaths like you, and will lead the majority world out of slavery to Western racist tyranny. Suck on that, troll!

  41. @Joe Levantine

    Hong Kong rose to prominence as an entrepot to China, and a hub for organised crime. Without China it would have been nothing.

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