æµå‹•æ€§ã®ç½ ：大ææ…Œã¨å¤§ä¸æ³ã®çµ±ä¸€ç†è«– - himaginary’s diary
エガートソンã®NBER論文をもã†ä¸€ä¸ã€‚以下ã¯Gauti B. Eggertsson（ブラウン大）ã€Sergey K. Egiev（åŒï¼‰ã«ã‚ˆã‚‹è¡¨é¡Œã®è«–文（原題ã¯ã€ŒLiquidity Traps: A Unified Theory of the Great Depression and Great Recessionã€ï¼‰ã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ This paper presents a unified framework to explain three major economic downturns: the U.S. Great Depression, the U.S. Great Recession, and Japan’s Long Recession. Temporary economic disruptions, such as banking crises and excessive deb
フォワードガイダンスパズルã¯ãƒ‘ズルã«éžãš - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBERè«–æ–‡ãŒä¸ŠãŒã£ã¦ã„る（ungated版ã¸ã®ãƒªãƒ³ã‚¯ãŒã‚る著者ã®ä¸€äººï¼ˆã‚¨ã‚¬ãƒ¼ãƒˆã‚½ãƒ³ï¼‰ã®ãƒšãƒ¼ã‚¸ï¼‰ã€‚原題ã¯ã€ŒThe Forward Guidance Puzzle is not a Puzzleã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Gauti B. Eggertssonã€Finn D. Schüle（ã„ãšã‚Œã‚‚ブラウン大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ In standard New Keynesian models, future interest rate cuts have larger effects than current cuts—this is called the forward guidance puzzle. We argue that the forward guidance puzzle is not a puzzle. We show the puzzle arises from an impl
傾ã„ãŸLå—åž‹ã®ãƒ•ã‚£ãƒªãƒƒãƒ—ス曲線 - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をエガートソンらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る。原題ã¯ã€ŒThe Slanted-L Phillips Curveã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Pierpaolo Benigno（ベルン大）ã€Gauti B. Eggertsson（ブラウン大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in deman
It’s Baaack：2020年代ã®ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬é«˜é¨°ã¨éžç·šå½¢ã®ãƒ•ã‚£ãƒªãƒƒãƒ—ス曲線ã®å¾©æ´» - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBERè«–æ–‡ãŒä¸ŠãŒã£ã¦ã„る。原題ã¯ã€ŒIt’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curveã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Pierpaolo Benigno（ベルン大）ã€Gauti B. Eggertsson（ブラウン大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ This paper proposes a non-linear New Keynesian Phillips curve (Inv-L NK Phillips Curve) to explain the surge of inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed
é‡çš„ç·©å’ŒãŒåŠ¹ãç†ç”± - himaginary’s diary
以å‰ã“ã“ã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ãŸè«–æ–‡ã®æŽ²è¼‰ãŒæ±ºã¾ã£ãŸã¨ã®ã“ã¨ã§ã€è‘—者ã®ä¸€äººã®ã‚¨ã‚¬ãƒ¼ãƒˆã‚½ãƒ³ãŒãƒ„イッターã§ã‚¹ãƒ¬ãƒƒãƒ‰ã‚’ç«‹ã¦ã¦åŒè«–文を解説ã—ã¦ã„る（H/T タイラー・コーエン）。 Bernanke famously quipped that “The problem with Quantitative Easing (QE) is that it works in practice but not in theoryâ€. My paper with Bhattarai and Gafarov on how QE can work in theory is forthcoming in the Review of Economic Studies. A thread: First, on QE not working in theory: I think Bernanke had in mind QE2 and
懸念少ãªã金利æ£å¸¸åŒ–ã«ç›Šã€€ç±³ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬ã®è¡Œæ–¹ã€€ã‚¬ã‚¦ãƒ†ã‚£ãƒ»ã‚¨ã‚¬ãƒ¼ãƒˆã‚½ãƒ³ ブラウン大å¦æ•™æŽˆ - 日本経済新èž
ãƒã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒˆâ—‹ä¸€æ™‚çš„ãªä¾›çµ¦ä¸è¶³ãŒåŽŸå› ã€ã„ãšã‚Œã¯è§£æ¶ˆâ—‹FRBã®é©åˆ‡ãªå¯¾å¿œã§70年代ã®å†ç¾ãªã„â—‹ãƒã‚¤ãƒ‡ãƒ³æ”¿æ¨©ã®ç©æ¥µè²¡æ”¿ã‚‚リスクå°ã•ã„ã“ã®ã¨ã“ã‚ã€ç±³å›½ã§ã¯ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬æ‡¸å¿µãŒé©šãã»ã©é«˜ã¾ã£ã¦ã„る。例ãˆã°ã€ç±³æ”¾é€å±€NBCã®ä¸–論調査ã«ã‚ˆã‚‹ã¨ã€ç±³å›½äººã®71%ãŒãƒã‚¤ãƒ‡ãƒ³ç±³å¤§çµ±é ˜ã®çµŒæ¸ˆæ”¿ç–ãŒã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬ã«ã¤ãªãŒã‚‹ã®ã§ã¯ãªã„ã‹ã¨ã€Œã„ãらã‹æ‡¸å¿µã—ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã€ã¨ã„ã†ã€‚ã“ã†ã—ãŸæ‡¸å¿µãŒæœ€åˆã«ç”Ÿã¾ã‚ŒãŸã®ã¯ã€2021å¹´åˆã‚ã«ãƒã‚¤ãƒ‡ãƒ³æ”¿æ¨©ãŒæ–°
ストã‚ャスティックãªä¸‹é™é‡‘利期間ã®ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã‚’解ãé“具立㦠- himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をエガートソンらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版ã¸ã®ãƒªãƒ³ã‚¯ãŒã‚るエガートソンã®HP）。原題ã¯ã€ŒA Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Durationã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Gauti B. Eggertssonã€Sergey K. Egievã€Alessandro Linã€Josef Platzerã€Luca Riva（ã„ãšã‚Œã‚‚ブラウン大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ This paper presents a toolkit to solve for equilibrium in economies with the effective lower bound (ELB) on the nominal interest rate in a computationally
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