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Dear Ricardo,
I am puzzled. For me, the increase in unemployment is causal, not a side effect, for inflation. Do you mean to say that, if we could avoid the side effect, we could decrease inflation without higher unemployment?
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I should clarify. Inflation can obviously move a lot without movements in unemployment. We have seen that, and this is the focus of my paper with Bernanke. My reaction to Reis was in the context of higher inflation not due to price shocks .
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Hi @ojblanchard1, yes I do mean that. And indeed that has happened before, not just in the last 12 months.
It is not common, as neither is the complete absence of any side effects from antibiotics (continuing my analogy).
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Why raising interest rates lowers inflation, and usually (but may not) raises unemployment ð§µ
When the CB raises nominal interest rates, agents want to save more in nominal vehicles as opposed to real ones. The relative value of nominal vs real must rise. Inflation must fall.
This happens as: (i) banks want to deposit more at the CB rather than lend to projects, (ii) investors and firms prefer to park resources in nominal accounts rather than invest them in real projects, (iii) households prefer nominal savings instead of buying durables or others
All of these--less lending, less investment, less spending--often will raise unemployment, but that is a side effect, not the causal channel.
Usually u will rise when i rises (and I expect it will soon), but this is not necessary for pi to fall.
As an example, take the canonical 3-equation NK model, since it is at the heart of most monetary DSGEs. Contractionary monetary policy lowers inflation *regardless of price* rigidity.
If prices are sticky or the policy surprises agents, you get lower output as a side effect.
If prices are flexible or the policy is fully anticipated, you do not, unemployment does not rise.
The strength of the side effect from interest rates to real activity depends on information and price rigidities in that model. But the channel to inflation is there either way.
But is this just in that one model?
@lcastillomart survey goes through the 5 main mechanisms that economists use to understand how monetary policy affects inflation. The causal link from unemployment to inflation is just one of them: the last one we cover, in section 7.
The channel I described above is my favored, and is covered in section 3. But monetarist channels going back to MV=PY do not rely on unemployment rising (section 4), nor do some of the more recent fiscal channels (section 5). Even if both (all?) have it as a common side effect
Paper here: https://personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/99-perplexed.pdf
Following on discussion and questions from @ojblanchard1 and on this good thread:Reading this from @R2Rsquared; I'm happy to grant that we should ditch the notion of the Phillips Curve as a causal-story tool for setting unemployment to reach target inflation, but then what is the path from interest rate policy to lower near-term measured inflation? pic.twitter.com/88W8PJA7hI
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1. Looking at Ricardo's answer to my puzzled reaction. I realize that an important difference between the way he and I think. (And, more generally, this difference is behind many discussions in macro. For example, in assessing John Cochraneâs fiscal theory of the price level).
2. He thinks of the price level very much as an asset price
I think of the price level as the result of millions of uncoordinated nominal price decisions by individual price setters, who do not care about the price level, but care about their relative price.
3. In my way of thinking, the only way to get inflation down (leaving out happy commodity price shocks, etc) is to induce price/wage setters to want to decrease their relative price/wage, leading to a general adjustment of nominal prices, and a slowing of inflation.
4. Short of a direct effect on inflation expectations, or mind control, or price/wage controls, this requires slowing down the economy, and thus increasing unemployment. To me, the increase in unemployment is causal, and needed to reduce inflation.
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âMind controlâ! Unusually acerbic from OB, but on point. Look at sharp decline in small business inflation. Do you think theyâre making price decisions based on Powell press conferences?
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ã©ã¤ã¹ã¯ããA useful reply from @ojblanchard1ï¼ãã©ã³ã·ã£ã¼ã«ããã®æç¨ãªãªãã©ã¤ï¼ãã¨ããã³ã¡ã³ããæ·»ãã¦RTするã¨ã¨ãã«ã以ä¸ã®ジョン・ステインソンのツイートãRTãã¦ããã
I am with @R2Rsquared on this. Ideally, disinflation is achieved purely through the inflation expectations and supply shock terms of the Phillips curve. Unfortunately, this doesnât always work out perfectly. In this sense softening of the economy is a side effect.
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Cute and fun simulation. But misleading if one concludes from it that there is no relation between unemployment and inflation. Four points:
If you think of the Phillips curve relation in general as the proposition that overheating must put pressure on inflation, it is hard to think that there is not such a relation, perhaps complex, perhaps time changing, in the data.
Given unemployment, there are often large good markets price shocks which affect inflation, and mess up the relation. We are seeing one such episode. These shocks need to be controlled for.
Inflation depends not just on unemployment but also very much on expected inflation, which should be controlled for.
The relation between expected inflation and past inflation has changed in major ways in the last 60 years. This must be controlled for.
So, conclusion: Stop pronouncing the Phillips curve relation dead, and donât expect a simple inflation unemployment diagram to show much.
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4ç¹è¿°ã¹ã¦ããï¼Phillips curve tends to function in mysterious ways (over time): https://t.co/KQtbUkCtBT
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