Tennessee State Senate elections, 2018

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
2018 Tennessee
Senate elections
Flag of Tennessee.png
GeneralNovember 6, 2018
PrimaryAugust 2, 2018
Past election results
2016・2014・2012・2010・2008
2006・2004・2002・2000
2018 elections
Choose a chamber below:

Republicans expanded their majority in the 2018 elections for Tennessee State Senate, since, after the election, they controlled 28 seats to Democrats' five. Eighteen of 33 Senate seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 26 seats to Democrats' four, with three vacancies.

The Republican Party maintained its trifecta in Tennessee in 2018 by holding its majorities in the state Senate and House and by retaining the governorship.

Because state senators in Tennessee serve four-year terms, winning candidates in the regular election served through 2022 and played a role in Tennessee's redistricting process. Congressional and state legislative district boundaries are drawn by the state legislature. Read more below.

The Tennessee State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

Tennessee state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

See also: State legislative elections, 2018

The Republican Party maintained supermajority status in both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 18 out of 33 seats were up for election. Republicans increased their supermajority in the Tennessee State Senate from 26-4 to 28-5. Three seats were vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and no incumbents were defeated in the general election.

The Tennessee House of Representatives held elections for all 99 seats. The Republican supermajority in the House of Representatives increased from 69-25 to 73-26. Five seats were vacant before the election. Two Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary and one Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

  • Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

Want more information?

Candidates

See also: Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

   font-size: 16px !important;

} .thirdpartyname:not(:first-child) { padding-top: 5px; } .thirdpartyname { margin:0; } .candidate:last-child { padding-bottom: 5px; } @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) { .candidateListTablePartisan td { font-size: 12px !important; vertical-align: top; } 

 }




Primary election candidates


The candidate list below is based on an official list provided by the Tennessee Secretary of State website on April 6, 2018. The filing deadline for the August primary was on April 5, 2018. (I) denotes an incumbent.[3]



   font-size: 16px !important;



}
.thirdpartyname:not(:first-child) {
			padding-top: 5px;
}
.thirdpartyname {
	margin:0;
}
.candidate:last-child {
	padding-bottom: 5px;
}
@media only screen and (max-width: 600px) {
	.candidateListTablePartisan td {
		font-size: 12px !important;
		vertical-align: top;
	}



 }




Special election candidates




   font-size: 16px !important;



}
.thirdpartyname:not(:first-child) {
			padding-top: 5px;
}
.thirdpartyname {
	margin:0;
}
.candidate:last-child {
	padding-bottom: 5px;
}
@media only screen and (max-width: 600px) {
	.candidateListTablePartisan td {
		font-size: 12px !important;
		vertical-align: top;
	}



 }





Margins of victory
See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Tennessee State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

  • Elections won
  • Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
  • Elections won without opposition
  • Average margin of victory[4]
Tennessee State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party Elections won Elections won by less than 10% Unopposed elections Average margin of victory[4]
Democratic Party Democratic
4
0
2
71.0%
Republican Party Republican
14
1
3
32.2%
Grey.png Other
0
0
0
N/A
Total
18
1
5
51.6%



The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Tennessee State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District Winning Party Losing Party Margin of Victory
Tennessee State Senate District 31
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
1.8%
Tennessee State Senate District 7
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
11.1%
Tennessee State Senate District 13
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
16.6%
Tennessee State Senate District 27
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
30.3%
Tennessee State Senate District 11
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
30.3%
Tennessee State Senate District 23
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
33.8%
Tennessee State Senate District 17
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
40.8%
Tennessee State Senate District 25
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
43.0%
Tennessee State Senate District 5
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
43.7%
Tennessee State Senate District 15
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
47.3%
Tennessee State Senate District 9
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
55.5%
Tennessee State Senate District 29
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
67.0%
Tennessee State Senate District 19
Electiondot.png Democratic
Grey.png Independent
75.0%
Tennessee State Senate District 1
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Tennessee State Senate District 21
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Tennessee State Senate District 3
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Tennessee State Senate District 2
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Tennessee State Senate District 33
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed


Incumbents retiring

Three incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018. Those incumbents were:

Name Party Office
Bill Ketron Ends.png Republican Senate District 13
Thelma Harper Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 19
Lee Harris Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 29

Process to become a candidate

See also: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Tennessee

DocumentIcon.jpg See statutes: Chapter 2-5 and Chapter 2-7 of the Tennessee Code

State legislative candidates

A candidate running for the state legislature, whether partisan or independent, must adhere to the same ballot access requirements, which are detailed below.

  1. The candidate must obtain a nominating petition from a county election commission office or the office of the state coordinator of elections.[5][6]
  2. The nominating petition must be signed by the candidate and at least 25 voters who are registered in the candidate's district.[5][6]
  3. The signer of a petition must include the address shown on his or her voter registration card in order for his or her signature to be counted.[6]
  4. The candidate must file the original nominating petition in the office of the county election commission by the first Thursday of April in his or her county of residence. The candidate must also file a certified duplicate in the county election commission office in each county wholly or partially within the candidate's district. This requirement applies to both political party candidates running in the primary and independent candidates running in the general election.[5][6]
  5. There are no filing fees.

Federal and statewide office

A partisan or independent candidate for governor, United States Representative, or United States Senator must obtain a nominating petition from a county election commission office or the office of the state coordinator of elections.[7][8]

  1. The nominating petition must be signed by at least 25 voters who are registered anywhere in Tennessee.[7][9]
  2. The signer of a petition must include the address shown on his or her voter registration card in order for the signature to be counted.[6]
  3. The candidate must file the nominating petition no later than noon on the first Thursday of April.[7][9]
  4. The candidate must file the original nominating petition in the office of the Tennessee State Election Commission. The candidate must also file a certified duplicate in the office of the state coordinator of elections. Both of these must be received by the qualifying deadline.[7][9]
  5. There are no filing fees.

For write-in candidates

In order to have his or her votes tallied, a write-in candidate must file a certificate of write-in candidacy no later than noon on the 50th day before the general election in each county that makes up the district of the listed office. For the offices of governor, United States Senator, and United States Representative, this form must be filed with the Tennessee Coordinator of Elections.[10][11]

Qualifications

See also: State legislature candidate requirements by state

To be eligible to serve in the Tennessee State Senate, a candidate must be:[12]

  • A U.S. citizen
  • 30 years old before the general election
  • A three-year resident of Tennessee before the general election
  • A district resident for 1 year prior to the general election
  • A qualified voter
  • The following situations would eliminate a candidate from qualifying for office:
    • Those who have been convicted of offering or giving a bribe, or of larceny, or any other offense declared infamous by law, unless restored to citizenship in the mode pointed out by law;
    • Those against whom there is a judgment unpaid for any moneys received by them, in any official capacity, due to the United States, to this state, or any county thereof;
    • Those who are defaulters to the treasury at the time of the election, and the election of any such person shall be void;
    • Soldiers, seamen, marines, or airmen in the regular army or navy or air force of the United States; and
    • Members of congress, and persons holding any office of profit or trust under any foreign power, other state of the union, or under the United States.

Salaries and per diem

See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
State legislative salaries, 2024[13]
SalaryPer diem
$28,405.96/year$326.47/day. Legislators living within 50 miles of the Capitol receive a reduced amount of $47 per day.

When sworn in

See also: When state legislators assume office after a general election

Tennessee legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[14]

Tennessee political history

See also: Partisan composition of state senates and State government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, Republicans increased their majority in the Tennessee State Senate from 26-4 to 28-5.

Tennessee State Senate
Party As of November 6, 2018 After November 7, 2018
     Democratic Party 4 5
     Republican Party 26 28
     Vacancy 3 0
Total 33 33

2016

In the 2016 elections, no changes occurred to the partisan balance of the Tennessee State Senate.

Tennessee State Senate
Party As of November 7, 2016 After November 8, 2016
     Democratic Party 5 5
     Republican Party 28 28
Total 33 33

Trifectas

A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Tennessee gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 2010 elections by taking control of the governorship.

Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

State legislative wave elections
Year President Party Election type State legislative seats change Elections analyzed[15]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -1,022 7,365
1922 Harding R First midterm -907 6,907
1966 Johnson D First midterm[16] -782 7,561
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -769 7,179
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -702 7,627
2010 Obama D First midterm -702 7,306
1974 Ford R Second midterm[17] -695 7,481
1920 Wilson D Presidential -654 6,835
1930 Hoover R Presidential -640 7,361
1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -494 7,513

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »


Historical context

See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

F5 Pop. % with uncontested state legislative races.png

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Redistricting in Tennessee

See also: Redistricting in Tennessee

Because state senators in Tennessee serve four-year terms, winning candidates in this election served through 2022 and played a role in Tennessee's redistricting process. In Tennessee, congressional and state legislative district boundaries are drawn by the state legislature.

State legislature districts in the 2010-2012 redistricting process

On January 13, 2012, the state legislature approved a state House redistricting plan, which was signed into law on January 26, 2012. New state Senate lines were adopted on January 19, 2012, and signed into law on February 9, 2012.[18]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[19][20]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 5 out of 33 state Senate districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 59.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 6 out of 33 state Senate districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 28 out of 33 state Senate districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 33.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 27 out of 33 state Senate districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 40.8 points.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  2. ↑ In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
  3. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Petition Filed for Tennessee Senate as of April 6, 2018," accessed April 17, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Tennessee Department of Elections, "Qualifying Procedures for Candidates for Tennessee House of Representatives," accessed October 31, 2013
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Tennessee Code, "Chapter 2-5-101," accessed February 22, 2014
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 Tennessee Department of Elections, "Qualifying Procedures for Candidates for Governor," accessed November 26, 2013
  8. ↑ Tennessee Code, "Chapter 2-5-103," accessed February 24, 2014
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Tennessee Secretary of State, "Tennessee Candidates for United States Senate," accessed February 25, 2014
  10. ↑ Tennessee Department of Elections, "Write-In Candidacy," accessed October 31, 2013
  11. ↑ Tennessee Code, "Chapter 2-7-133," accessed February 24, 2014
  12. ↑ Tennessee Secretary of State, "Qualifications for elected offices in Tennessee," accessed December 18, 2013
  13. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
  14. ↑ Tennessee Constitution, "Article II, Section 3," accessed November 1, 2021
  15. ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
  16. ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  17. ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  18. ↑ All About Redistricting, "Tennessee," accessed May 5, 2015
  19. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Current members of the Tennessee State Senate
Leadership
Senate President:Randy McNally
Minority Leader:Raumesh Akbari
Senators
District 1
J. Lowe (R)
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
Bo Watson (R)
District 12
Ken Yager (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Mark Pody (R)
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
Sara Kyle (D)
District 31
District 32
Paul Rose (R)
District 33
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (6)


v • e
2018 Elections to State legislatures
State Senate elections
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kentucky • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
SLP badge.png
State House elections
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Missouri • Montana • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Tennessee_State_Senate_elections,_2018&oldid=9949546"