Iowa House of Representatives elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 27
- Early voting: Oct. 8 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.
| 2018 Iowa House elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | June 5, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Republicans maintained their majority in the 2018 elections for the Iowa House of Representatives despite losing seats, winning 54 seats to Democrats' 46. All 100 House seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 58 seats to Democrats' 41, with one vacancy.
Ballotpedia identified 15 of the races as battlegrounds, including nine Republican-held districts and six Democratic-held districts. Of the 15 battleground seats, Republicans won seven, including two in Democratic-held districts, and Democrats won eight battleground races, including four in Republican-held districts.
Heading into the election, Iowa had been a Republican trifecta since 2016 when Republicans took control of the Iowa State Senate. Republicans took control of the state House and the governorship in the 2010 elections. The last Democratic trifecta in Iowa formed after the 2006 elections and lasted until 2010. Had the Democratic Party taken the chamber, it would have broken the Republican trifecta.
The Iowa House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. The Iowa House of Representatives was one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers identified by Ballotpedia in the 2018 elections. Read more below.
Iowa state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
For more information about the Democratic primaries, click here.
For more information about the Republican primaries, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Republican Party maintained control of both chambers of the Iowa General Assembly in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 25 of 50 total seats were up for election. Republicans increased their majority in the Iowa State Senate from 29-20 to 32-18. One Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent were defeated in the general election.
The Iowa House of Representatives was identified as a battleground chamber. All 100 seats were up for election. The Republican majority in the Iowa House of Representatives was reduced from 58-41 to 54-46. Five incumbents were defeated in the general election; one Democrat and four Republicans.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Districts
- See also: Iowa state legislative districts
Use the interactive map below to find your district.
Candidates
General election candidates
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Iowa House of Representatives General Election 2018
- Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office Other District 1
John Wills (i)
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5 District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9 District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
Steve Sechrest (Libertarian Party)
District 17
District 18
District 19
Richard Dedor (Independent)
District 20 District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28 District 29 District 30 Did not make the ballot:
Zach Nunn (i)
District 31
District 32
Toya S. Johnson (Libertarian Party)
District 33
District 34
Marrianna Collins (Libertarian Party)
District 35
John Callahan (Libertarian Party)
District 36
Joseph Howe (Libertarian Party)
District 37
District 38 Kevin Koester (i)
District 39 Jake Highfill (i)
Anthony Junk (Libertarian Party)
District 40
District 41
Claudia Addy (Independent)
District 42 Peter Cownie (i)
District 43 Chad Brewbaker (Libertarian Party)
District 44 Gabriel Thomson (Libertarian Party)
District 45 District 46
District 47 Patrick Shaw (Libertarian Party)
District 48
District 49
John Evans (Libertarian Party)
District 50
District 51 District 52
District 53
District 54
District 55
District 56 District 57
Lucas Link (Libertarian Party)
District 58
District 59
District 60 Walt Rogers (i)
District 61 District 62
District 63
District 64
District 65
District 66
District 67
District 68 District 69 Joshua Henderson (Independent)
District 70 Myra Matejka (Libertarian Party)
District 71
District 72
District 73
District 74
District 75 John George (Libertarian Party)
District 76
District 77
District 78
District 79 Nicholas Ryan (Libertarian Party)
District 80 District 81
District 82 Phil Miller (i)
District 83 District 84 District 85
District 86
District 87
District 88
Corey Gingerich (Independent)
District 89 District 90
District 91
District 92
District 93
District 94
District 95
District 96
District 97
David Melchert, Jr. (Libertarian Party)
District 98
Did not make the ballot:
Reese Petersen
District 99 District 100
Primary candidates
Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Iowa House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[1]
| Iowa House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[1] |
| Democratic |
||||
| Republican |
||||
 Other |
||||
| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the Iowa House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Iowa House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 38 | Kevin Koester |
Heather Matson |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 39 | Jake Highfill |
Karin Derry |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 42 | Peter Cownie |
Kristin Sunde |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 43 | Chris Hagenow |
Jennifer Konfrst |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 44 | Rob Taylor |
Kenan Judge |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 60 | Walt Rogers |
Dave Williams |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 68 | Ken Rizer |
Molly Donahue |
R to D |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 82 | Phil Miller |
Jeff Shipley |
D to R |
| Iowa House of Representatives District 9 | Helen Miller |
Ann Meyer |
D to R |
Incumbents retiring
Seventeen incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[2][3] Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Holz |  Republican |
House District 5 |
| Helen Miller |  Democratic |
House District 9 |
| Ralph Watts | Republican |
House District 19 |
| Clel Baudler | Republican |
House District 20 |
| Greg Heartsill | Republican |
House District 28 |
| Zach Nunn | Republican |
House District 30 |
| Rob Taylor | Republican |
House District 44 |
| Chip Baltimore | Republican |
House District 47 |
| Kristi Hager | Republican |
House District 56 |
| Ken Rizer | Republican |
House District 68 |
| Todd Taylor | Democratic |
House District 70 |
| Dawn Pettengill | Republican |
House District 75 |
| Guy Vander Linden | Republican |
House District 79 |
| Larry Sheets | Republican |
House District 80 |
| Jerry Kearns | Democratic |
House District 83 |
| David Heaton | Republican |
House District 84 |
| Abby Finkenauer | Democratic |
House District 99 |
2018 battleground chamber
Ballotpedia identified the Iowa House of Representatives as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
- Competitive seats: In 2016, five seats won by Democrats had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. Seven seats won by Republicans had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. See the 2018 battleground races.
- Retirements: Seventeen state House members, 13 Republicans and four Democrats, did not seek re-election in 2018.
- Competitive statewide race: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who assumed the governorship in 2017 after incumbent Terry Branstad (R) resigned, sought her first elected term in 2018. Electoral ratings organizations expected the race to be competitive between the two parties. The governor's office was previously controlled by a Democrat from 1999 to 2010. Read more about the 2018 gubernatorial race here.
- 2016 presidential election results: Donald Trump (R) won 10 districts that elected Democrats to the state House. Hillary Clinton (D) won four districts that elected Republicans to the state House.
- Recent party control switches: The chamber flipped from Republican to Democratic control in 2006 and then came back under Republican control in 2010.
| Party control: 2006 - 2016 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Year: | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | |||||||||
| Winning Party: | D | D | R | R | R | R | |||||||||
Battleground races
Ballotpedia identified 15 battleground races in the Iowa House of Representatives 2018 elections: six Democratic seats and nine Republican seats. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
- If the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in the most recent election prior to 2018
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent’s margin of victory in the previous election was 10 percentage points or less
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent did not file to run for re-election
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections by 20 points or more
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
In the table below, a bolded name indicates the winner of an election.
| 2018 Iowa House Races to Watch | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
 Libertarian
|
2016 margin of victory | 2016 presidential result | Incumbent running? | Conditions met |
| 9 | Megan Srinivas | Ann Meyer | D+14.6 | R+16.0 | No | 2, 3 | |
| 14 | Timothy Kacena (i) | Robert Henderson | D+2.3 | D+0.4 | Yes | 1 | |
| 15 | Charlie McConkey (i) | LeAnn Hughes | D+3.5 | R+9.6 | Yes | 1, 2 | |
| 26 | Scott Ourth (i) | Rebel Snodgrass | D+8.0 | R+13.9 | Yes | 1, 2 | |
| 42 | Kristin Sunde | Peter Cownie (i) | R+6.6 | D+9.0 | Yes | 1, 2 | |
| 43 | Jennifer Konfrst | Michael Boal | Chad Brewbaker | R+3.1 | D+11.5 | No | 1, 2, 3 |
| 44 | Kenan Judge | Anna Bergman | Gabriel Thomson | R (unopposed) | R+2.8 | No | None[4] |
| 47 | David Weaver | Phil Thompson | Patrick Shaw | R+21.0 | R+16.6 | No | None[5] |
| 56 | Lori Egan | Anne Osmundson | R+9.0 | R+24.9 | No | 1 | |
| 57 | Nancy Fett | Shannon Lundgren (i) | Lucas Link | R+4.5 | R+20.2 | Yes | 1 |
| 68 | Molly Donahue | Randy Ray | R+8.1 | D+3.7 | No | 1, 3 | |
| 75 | Paula Denison | Thomas Gerhold | John George | R+35.9 | R+26.0 | No | None[6] |
| 82 | Phil Miller (i) | Jeff Shipley | D+9.3[7] | R+21.2 | Yes | 1, 2, 4 | |
| 83 | Jeff Kurtz | Jeffrey Reichman | D (unopposed) | R+12.9 | No | 3 | |
| 91 | Laura Liegois | Gary Carlson (i) | R+7.9 | R+6.1 | Yes | 1 | |
Battleground races map
Iowa political history
Partisan control
2018
In the 2018 elections, the Republican majority in the Iowa House of Representatives was reduced from 58-41 to 54-46.
| Iowa House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 41 | 46 | |
| Republican Party | 58 | 54 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
2016
In the 2016 elections, Republicans expanded their majority in the state House from 57-43 to 59-41.
| Iowa House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 43 | 41 | |
| Republican Party | 57 | 59 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Iowa gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 2016 elections. Democrats had trifectas in the state from 2007 to 2010. Republicans previously held a Republican trifecta from 1997 to 1998.
Iowa Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas • Ten years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Iowa ballot measures
Iowa's process for putting legislatively referred constitutional amendments before voters was designed to allow legislative elections to determine the fate of proposed constitutional amendments approved in the previous session. To put a legislatively referred constitutional amendment before voters, a simple majority vote is required in both the Iowa State Senate and the Iowa House of Representatives in two legislative sessions with an election for state legislators in between. Every two years, half of the state senators and all of the members of the state House are up for election.
During the 2017-2018 legislative session in Iowa, two proposed constitutional amendments were approved: the Iowa Gubernatorial Succession Amendment and the Iowa Right to Firearms Amendment. Both amendments were approved largely along party lines. The gubernatorial succession amendment—which was designed to allow the governor to appoint a replacement lieutenant governor if there is a vacancy—was approved by all 26 voting Republicans in the Senate and all 57 voting Republicans in the House. Voting Democrats were split 10-10 in the Senate, while all 40 voting Democrats voted against the amendment in the House. The amendment to add a right to own and bear firearms to the state constitution was approved by all Republicans in the Senate and by 54 of 56 voting Republicans in the House. In the Senate, 15 of 20 voting Democrats voted against it, and, in the House, all 40 voting Democrats voted against it. The one Independent state senator voted in favor of both amendments.
Iowa became a Republican trifecta in 2016 when Republicans flipped the state Senate. Republicans took control of the governor's office and the state House in the 2010 elections. Entering the November 2018 election, Iowa is one of 26 Republican state government trifectas. To retake control of the state Senate in 2018, Democrats needed to flip five seats. In the state House, Republicans had a 59-41 majority. In the 2018 elections, Republicans maintained their Trifecta control of the state.
After the 2018 elections, legislators were set to consider both amendments in the 2019-2020 legislative session. Ultimately, however, the secretary of state did not publish the approval of the amendments according to state law requirements. This invalidated the approval in the 2017-2018 session and required the two-session process to be started over for these two amendments.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[8] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[9] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[10] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Candidate and office information
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: Title II of the Iowa Code
There are four ways in which a candidate can gain access to the general election ballot: by primary election, by political party convention, by Non-party Political Organization (NPPO) convention, or by petition. These are detailed below.
Iowa allows any registered voter to challenge a candidate's nominating petition, as long as the challenge is made in writing and within 74 days of the corresponding election.[11][12]
By primary election
A candidate seeking the nomination of a state-recognized political party in a primary election must be a member of that party. Non-party Political Organizations (NPPOs) are not permitted to participate in primary elections. A primary election candidate must file an affidavit of candidacy and nomination petition with the Iowa Secretary of State during the primary election filing period, which begins 99 days before the primary and ends at 5 p.m. on the 81st day before the primary. The affidavit of candidacy and the nomination petition must be filed simultaneously.[13][14]
For the number of signatures required for nomination petitions, see the table below.[13][15][16]
| Formulas for determining signature requirements for political party candidates in primary elections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Office sought | Number of signatures needed | |
| Governor or U.S. Senator | 3,500 signatures, including at least 100 from 19 different counties.[13][16] | |
| State executive office (other than governor and lieutenant governor) | 2,500 signatures, including at least 77 from 18 different counties.[16] | |
| United States Representative | 1,726 signatures, including at least 47 from half of the counties in the district.[13][16] | |
| State Senator | 100 signatures from the district.[13][16] | |
| State Representative | 50 signatures from the district.[13][16] | |
By political party convention
If a political party fails to nominate a candidate at the primary election, the party may hold a convention after the primary to nominate a candidate. That candidate must then file a political party convention certificate and an affidavit of candidacy. The deadline to file the convention certificate and affidavit of candidacy is the same as the general election filing deadline. However, a political party convention candidate may file his or her documents before the filing period begins for general election candidates.[17]
By Non-party Political Organization (NPPO) convention
Non-party Political Organizations (NPPOs) are permitted to hold conventions to nominate their candidates. However, in order to qualify their nominations, NPPOs must meet the following requirements:[17][18] [19]
- To nominate a candidate to a state executive office or the United States Senate, 500 eligible electors, meaning people who meet all the requirements to register to vote, must attend the convention, and 25 counties must be represented by at least one eligible elector each.
- To nominate a candidate to the United States House of Representatives, 200 eligible electors who are residents of the congressional district the candidate seeks to represent must attend, including one eligible elector from at least half of the counties in the district.
- To nominate a candidate to the Iowa State Senate, 50 eligible electors who are residents of the senatorial district must attend, including one eligible elector from one-half of the precincts in the senatorial district.
- To nominate a candidate to the Iowa House of Representatives, 25 eligible electors who are residents of the representative district must attend, including one eligible elector from one-half of the precincts in the representative district.
- A convention may be held at any time as long as it is before the general election filing deadline.[20]
- After the convention, the NPPO must provide a list of those who attended the convention, including their addresses, to the Iowa Secretary of State, along with a convention certificate and an affidavit of candidacy for the candidate nominated. These documents must be filed together during the general election filing period, which begins 99 days before the general election and ends at 5 p.m. 81 days before the general election.[20][17][12]
By petition
A candidate who is not affiliated with any political party or NPPO can be nominated by petition. A NPPO candidate can gain ballot access in this manner if the NPPO cannot meet the convention attendance requirements described above. A petition candidates must file an affidavit of candidacy and nomination petition with the Iowa Secretary of State. These forms must be filed together by 5 p.m. 81 days before the general election.[12][18]
The table below details the signature requirements necessary for obtaining ballot access by petition.
| Formulas for determining signature requirements for NPPO candidates | ||
|---|---|---|
| Office sought | Number of signatures needed | |
| United States Senator or governor | 3,500 eligible electors, including at least 100 from at least 19 counties[17][18] | |
| Otherwise statewide executive offices | 2,500 eligible electors, including at least 77 from at least 18 counties[17][18] | |
| United States Representative | 1,726 eligible electors who are residents of the congressional district, including at least 47 eligible electors each from at least one-half of the counties in the congressional district[17][18] | |
Qualifications
The Iowa Constitution states, "No person shall be a member of the house of representatives who shall not have attained the age of twenty-one years, be a citizen of the United States, and shall have been an inhabitant of this state one year next preceding his election, and at the time of his election shall have had an actual residence of sixty days in the county, or district he may have been chosen to represent."[21]
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislative salaries, 2024[22] | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $25,000/year | $178/day for legislators who live outside of Polk County. $133.50/day for legislators who live within Polk County. |
When sworn in
Iowa state representatives always assume office the first day of January after their election.[23]
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Thirty-one of 99 Iowa counties—31 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Allamakee County, Iowa | 24.15% | 4.17% | 14.25% | ||||
| Boone County, Iowa | 13.69% | 6.64% | 7.63% | ||||
| Bremer County, Iowa | 13.68% | 2.68% | 9.31% | ||||
| Buchanan County, Iowa | 15.02% | 13.87% | 18.48% | ||||
| Cedar County, Iowa | 17.78% | 4.59% | 9.64% | ||||
| Cerro Gordo County, Iowa | 7.66% | 13.38% | 20.83% | ||||
| Chickasaw County, Iowa | 22.94% | 11.07% | 20.74% | ||||
| Clarke County, Iowa | 28.02% | 1.47% | 2.25% | ||||
| Clayton County, Iowa | 22.78% | 7.03% | 17.17% | ||||
| Clinton County, Iowa | 5.12% | 22.84% | 23.03% | ||||
| Des Moines County, Iowa | 6.89% | 18.41% | 23.04% | ||||
| Dubuque County, Iowa | 1.23% | 14.71% | 20.77% | ||||
| Fayette County, Iowa | 19.36% | 11.96% | 16.60% | ||||
| Floyd County, Iowa | 14.84% | 14.63% | 21.88% | ||||
| Howard County, Iowa | 20.49% | 20.95% | 25.78% | ||||
| Jackson County, Iowa | 19.27% | 16.89% | 24.39% | ||||
| Jasper County, Iowa | 18.13% | 7.07% | 7.50% | ||||
| Jefferson County, Iowa | 0.47% | 15.97% | 20.23% | ||||
| Jones County, Iowa | 19.08% | 7.78% | 10.40% | ||||
| Lee County, Iowa | 16.02% | 15.49% | 16.01% | ||||
| Louisa County, Iowa | 28.37% | 0.64% | 4.25% | ||||
| Marshall County, Iowa | 8.31% | 9.36% | 9.35% | ||||
| Mitchell County, Iowa | 24.04% | 3.37% | 12.31% | ||||
| Muscatine County, Iowa | 6.26% | 15.88% | 15.64% | ||||
| Poweshiek County, Iowa | 6.53% | 9.35% | 11.75% | ||||
| Tama County, Iowa | 20.28% | 7.43% | 12.19% | ||||
| Union County, Iowa | 27.49% | 3.86% | 3.70% | ||||
| Wapello County, Iowa | 20.60% | 11.88% | 13.53% | ||||
| Webster County, Iowa | 21.52% | 5.84% | 8.51% | ||||
| Winneshiek County, Iowa | 0.79% | 14.74% | 22.65% | ||||
| Worth County, Iowa | 21.68% | 14.53% | 22.42% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Iowa with 51.1 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 41.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1848 and 2016, Iowa voted Republican 69.76 percent of the time and Democratic 30.23 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Iowa voted Democratic three times and Republican the other two times.[24]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Iowa. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[25][26]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 61 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 19.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 35 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 18.8 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 65 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. Trump won 10 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 30.96% | 67.78% | R+36.8 | 22.23% | 73.81% | R+51.6 | R |
| 2 | 41.86% | 56.83% | R+15 | 27.53% | 67.70% | R+40.2 | R |
| 3 | 31.57% | 67.31% | R+35.7 | 20.73% | 74.78% | R+54.1 | R |
| 4 | 15.63% | 83.55% | R+67.9 | 12.95% | 81.67% | R+68.7 | R |
| 5 | 33.00% | 65.90% | R+32.9 | 22.28% | 73.69% | R+51.4 | R |
| 6 | 44.39% | 54.40% | R+10 | 32.54% | 62.36% | R+29.8 | R |
| 7 | 46.87% | 51.82% | R+5 | 31.96% | 62.86% | R+30.9 | R |
| 8 | 43.04% | 55.84% | R+12.8 | 28.52% | 67.11% | R+38.6 | R |
| 9 | 54.26% | 44.65% | D+9.6 | 39.33% | 55.29% | R+16 | D |
| 10 | 40.15% | 58.39% | R+18.2 | 25.64% | 69.78% | R+44.1 | R |
| 11 | 42.76% | 56.17% | R+13.4 | 30.87% | 64.40% | R+33.5 | R |
| 12 | 46.14% | 52.95% | R+6.8 | 30.92% | 64.32% | R+33.4 | R |
| 13 | 54.28% | 44.37% | D+9.9 | 42.30% | 52.03% | R+9.7 | D |
| 14 | 59.33% | 39.34% | D+20 | 47.69% | 47.27% | D+0.4 | D |
| 15 | 57.12% | 41.17% | D+16 | 41.89% | 51.48% | R+9.6 | D |
| 16 | 52.01% | 46.46% | D+5.5 | 41.84% | 51.76% | R+9.9 | R |
| 17 | 41.10% | 57.71% | R+16.6 | 25.76% | 70.01% | R+44.3 | R |
| 18 | 41.98% | 56.88% | R+14.9 | 28.11% | 67.52% | R+39.4 | R |
| 19 | 40.80% | 57.87% | R+17.1 | 36.54% | 56.73% | R+20.2 | R |
| 20 | 48.77% | 49.62% | R+0.9 | 35.39% | 59.04% | R+23.6 | R |
| 21 | 45.01% | 53.64% | R+8.6 | 29.35% | 65.17% | R+35.8 | R |
| 22 | 36.78% | 62.08% | R+25.3 | 29.64% | 65.50% | R+35.9 | R |
| 23 | 40.72% | 57.80% | R+17.1 | 27.37% | 66.81% | R+39.4 | R |
| 24 | 39.86% | 58.79% | R+18.9 | 25.77% | 69.86% | R+44.1 | R |
| 25 | 44.34% | 54.14% | R+9.8 | 34.15% | 59.72% | R+25.6 | R |
| 26 | 50.18% | 48.59% | D+1.6 | 39.62% | 53.52% | R+13.9 | D |
| 27 | 47.15% | 51.07% | R+3.9 | 30.50% | 64.42% | R+33.9 | R |
| 28 | 47.30% | 51.30% | R+4 | 31.76% | 62.81% | R+31.1 | R |
| 29 | 56.05% | 42.50% | D+13.6 | 40.78% | 53.23% | R+12.5 | D |
| 30 | 47.66% | 50.85% | R+3.2 | 38.47% | 54.84% | R+16.4 | R |
| 31 | 61.55% | 36.86% | D+24.7 | 49.75% | 43.99% | D+5.8 | D |
| 32 | 72.88% | 25.37% | D+47.5 | 63.69% | 30.28% | D+33.4 | D |
| 33 | 67.30% | 31.37% | D+35.9 | 59.50% | 34.55% | D+25 | D |
| 34 | 68.16% | 30.10% | D+38.1 | 60.44% | 33.19% | D+27.2 | D |
| 35 | 77.01% | 21.48% | D+55.5 | 70.40% | 23.46% | D+46.9 | D |
| 36 | 65.21% | 33.12% | D+32.1 | 63.13% | 29.46% | D+33.7 | D |
| 37 | 43.30% | 55.35% | R+12 | 42.10% | 50.50% | R+8.4 | R |
| 38 | 49.33% | 49.21% | D+0.1 | 42.85% | 49.84% | R+7 | R |
| 39 | 43.02% | 55.76% | R+12.7 | 43.93% | 48.99% | R+5.1 | R |
| 40 | 49.31% | 49.53% | R+0.2 | 50.25% | 43.32% | D+6.9 | D |
| 41 | 67.93% | 30.50% | D+37.4 | 69.25% | 24.10% | D+45.2 | D |
| 42 | 49.85% | 48.83% | D+1 | 51.15% | 42.19% | D+9 | R |
| 43 | 50.58% | 48.29% | D+2.3 | 52.50% | 41.03% | D+11.5 | R |
| 44 | 42.52% | 56.60% | R+14.1 | 44.97% | 47.76% | R+2.8 | R |
| 45 | 60.66% | 36.80% | D+23.9 | 57.79% | 31.85% | D+25.9 | D |
| 46 | 59.66% | 37.96% | D+21.7 | 57.22% | 33.12% | D+24.1 | D |
| 47 | 52.11% | 46.29% | D+5.8 | 38.31% | 54.96% | R+16.6 | R |
| 48 | 47.95% | 50.46% | R+2.5 | 36.50% | 56.98% | R+20.5 | R |
| 49 | 46.50% | 51.88% | R+5.4 | 36.62% | 55.49% | R+18.9 | R |
| 50 | 42.94% | 55.95% | R+13 | 30.36% | 64.36% | R+34 | R |
| 51 | 55.19% | 43.48% | D+11.7 | 35.67% | 58.91% | R+23.2 | R |
| 52 | 56.04% | 42.88% | D+13.2 | 37.76% | 56.73% | R+19 | D |
| 53 | 60.98% | 37.92% | D+23.1 | 47.69% | 46.65% | D+1 | D |
| 54 | 44.96% | 53.94% | R+9 | 32.11% | 62.71% | R+30.6 | R |
| 55 | 55.19% | 43.44% | D+11.8 | 43.51% | 50.62% | R+7.1 | R |
| 56 | 52.01% | 46.73% | D+5.3 | 34.91% | 59.80% | R+24.9 | R |
| 57 | 49.00% | 49.98% | R+1 | 37.25% | 57.49% | R+20.2 | R |
| 58 | 55.60% | 43.22% | D+12.4 | 37.06% | 57.82% | R+20.8 | R |
| 59 | 56.29% | 42.22% | D+14.1 | 51.94% | 40.87% | D+11.1 | D |
| 60 | 50.15% | 48.91% | D+1.2 | 45.19% | 48.75% | R+3.6 | R |
| 61 | 63.73% | 35.14% | D+28.6 | 52.34% | 42.07% | D+10.3 | D |
| 62 | 76.37% | 22.58% | D+53.8 | 62.14% | 32.64% | D+29.5 | D |
| 63 | 49.95% | 48.93% | D+1 | 39.04% | 55.06% | R+16 | R |
| 64 | 57.83% | 41.00% | D+16.8 | 40.27% | 53.42% | R+13.1 | D |
| 65 | 66.77% | 31.71% | D+35.1 | 61.58% | 31.29% | D+30.3 | D |
| 66 | 57.43% | 41.04% | D+16.4 | 53.11% | 39.91% | D+13.2 | D |
| 67 | 49.18% | 49.50% | R+0.3 | 47.22% | 45.74% | D+1.5 | R |
| 68 | 54.45% | 44.08% | D+10.4 | 48.20% | 44.50% | D+3.7 | R |
| 69 | 65.87% | 32.63% | D+33.2 | 52.73% | 40.24% | D+12.5 | D |
| 70 | 63.00% | 35.67% | D+27.3 | 53.85% | 39.20% | D+14.7 | D |
| 71 | 56.62% | 42.23% | D+14.4 | 48.02% | 46.57% | D+1.5 | D |
| 72 | 50.86% | 47.88% | D+3 | 34.92% | 59.56% | R+24.6 | R |
| 73 | 54.19% | 44.65% | D+9.5 | 43.25% | 51.15% | R+7.9 | R |
| 74 | 67.17% | 31.21% | D+36 | 69.14% | 24.89% | D+44.3 | D |
| 75 | 49.36% | 49.39% | R+0 | 34.09% | 60.12% | R+26 | R |
| 76 | 50.61% | 47.97% | D+2.6 | 40.64% | 53.90% | R+13.3 | R |
| 77 | 58.46% | 40.34% | D+18.1 | 53.49% | 39.62% | D+13.9 | D |
| 78 | 46.21% | 51.69% | R+5.5 | 34.06% | 60.08% | R+26 | R |
| 79 | 35.86% | 62.79% | R+26.9 | 25.96% | 67.84% | R+41.9 | R |
| 80 | 45.03% | 53.56% | R+8.5 | 27.04% | 68.71% | R+41.7 | R |
| 81 | 56.57% | 41.86% | D+14.7 | 39.52% | 55.89% | R+16.4 | D |
| 82 | 49.74% | 47.90% | D+1.8 | 36.54% | 57.76% | R+21.2 | D |
| 83 | 58.67% | 39.72% | D+19 | 40.42% | 53.35% | R+12.9 | D |
| 84 | 46.37% | 52.04% | R+5.7 | 30.59% | 63.23% | R+32.6 | R |
| 85 | 71.79% | 26.07% | D+45.7 | 74.26% | 19.90% | D+54.4 | D |
| 86 | 72.99% | 24.97% | D+48 | 72.34% | 21.06% | D+51.3 | D |
| 87 | 62.60% | 36.08% | D+26.5 | 48.53% | 45.49% | D+3 | D |
| 88 | 50.88% | 47.86% | D+3 | 35.94% | 58.76% | R+22.8 | R |
| 89 | 63.19% | 35.77% | D+27.4 | 52.47% | 40.86% | D+11.6 | D |
| 90 | 73.49% | 24.97% | D+48.5 | 57.98% | 34.93% | D+23.1 | D |
| 91 | 57.61% | 40.97% | D+16.6 | 43.65% | 49.75% | R+6.1 | R |
| 92 | 53.94% | 45.00% | D+8.9 | 42.25% | 51.61% | R+9.4 | R |
| 93 | 56.63% | 42.22% | D+14.4 | 50.96% | 42.21% | D+8.7 | D |
| 94 | 45.18% | 53.87% | R+8.7 | 43.91% | 50.10% | R+6.2 | R |
| 95 | 52.01% | 46.69% | D+5.3 | 41.86% | 51.59% | R+9.7 | R |
| 96 | 51.83% | 47.01% | D+4.8 | 35.42% | 58.91% | R+23.5 | R |
| 97 | 50.63% | 47.95% | D+2.7 | 37.14% | 56.46% | R+19.3 | R |
| 98 | 65.29% | 33.50% | D+31.8 | 48.47% | 45.38% | D+3.1 | D |
| 99 | 59.37% | 39.28% | D+20.1 | 52.61% | 41.12% | D+11.5 | D |
| 100 | 62.95% | 35.58% | D+27.4 | 51.37% | 42.25% | D+9.1 | D |
| Total | 52.23% | 46.40% | D+5.8 | 42.23% | 51.72% | R+9.5 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- Iowa House of Representatives
- Iowa State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Iowa state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Iowa state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ District 43 Rep. Chris Hagenow (R) did not file for re-election to the 43rd District, but he did file for state House District 19. Ballotpedia considers him an incumbent because he saught a different seat in the same chamber, so Hagenow is not listed below.
- ↑ This district was marked as a battleground because the incumbent did not file for re-election and the seat swung from R+14.1 in the 2012 presidential election to R+2.8 in the 2016 presidential election.
- ↑ This district was marked as a battleground because the incumbent did not file for re-election and the seat swung from D+5.8 in the 2012 presidential election to R+16.6 in the 2016 presidential election.
- ↑ This district was marked as a battleground because the incumbent did not file for re-election and the seat swung from R+0 in the 2012 presidential election to R+26 in the 2016 presidential election.
- ↑ This margin of victory is from a 2017 special election for the seat.
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Iowa Code, "Title II, Section 43.24," accessed January 13, 2014
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 Iowa Code, "Title II, Section 44.4," accessed January 13, 2014
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate’s Guide to the Primary Election," June 4, 2024
- ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "Iowa Code 2024, Section 43.11," accessed September 10, 2024
- ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "Iowa Code 2024, Section 43.20," accessed September 10, 2024
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 Iowa Secretary of State, "Iowa Code 2024, Section 45.1," accessed September 10, 2024
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate's Guide to the General Election," accessed January 13, 2014
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 The Iowa Legislature, "SF413," accessed March 10, 2021
- ↑ Iowa Code, "Title II, Section 44.1," accessed January 13, 2014
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 Iowa Secretary of State Website, "Forming a Political Party in Iowa," accessed January 13, 2014
- ↑ Iowa Constitution
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ Iowa Constitution, "Article III, Legislative Department, Section 3," accessed November 1, 2021
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Iowa," accessed June 1, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
