Florida House of Representatives elections, 2018

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2018 Florida
House elections
Flag of Florida.png
GeneralNovember 6, 2018
PrimaryAugust 28, 2018
Past election results
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2018 elections
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Republicans maintained their majority in the Florida House of Representatives in the 2018 elections, winning 73 seats to Democrats' 47. All 120 House seats were up for election in 2018. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled 75 seats and Democrats controlled 41.

Republicans maintained their trifecta in Florida by holding the state House, the state Senate, and the governor's office.

Florida state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.

The Florida House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. In 2017, three chambers in Virginia and New Jersey were up for election. In 2016, 86 out of 99 legislative chambers held elections. Prior to 2018, the Florida House of Representatives last held elections in 2016.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

See also: State legislative elections, 2018

The Republican Party maintained control of both chambers of the Florida State Legislature in the 2018 election. The Florida State Senate was identified as a battleground chamber. Twenty-two out of 40 seats were up for election. The Republican majority in the Florida State Senate was reduced from 26-14 to 25-15. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and one Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.

The Florida House of Representatives held elections for all 120 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 75-41 to 73-47. Four seats were vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary. Five incumbents were defeated in the general election; two Democrats and three Republicans.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

  • Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
  • A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

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Candidates

See also: Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

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Write-in candidates:

Primary candidates

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Margins of victory

See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Florida House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

  • Elections won
  • Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
  • Elections won without opposition
  • Average margin of victory[3]
Florida House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party Elections won Elections won by less than 10% Unopposed elections Average margin of victory[3]
Democratic Party Democratic
47
9
29
20.6%
Republican Party Republican
73
18
8
19.3%
Grey.png Other
0
0
0
N/A
Total
120
27
37
20.0%



The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Florida House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District Winning Party Losing Party Margin of Victory
Florida House of Representatives District 89
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
0.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 26
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
0.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 105
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
0.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 115
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
0.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 72
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
1.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 15
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
1.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 29
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
2.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 118
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
2.3%
Florida House of Representatives District 28
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
2.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 44
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
2.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 21
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
2.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 84
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
2.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 59
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
3.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 83
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
4.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 60
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
4.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 69
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
5.4%
Florida House of Representatives District 30
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
5.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 114
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
5.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 120
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
6.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 103
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
6.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 63
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
6.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 64
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
7.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 93
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
7.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 67
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
7.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 42
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
8.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 58
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
9.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 85
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
9.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 53
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
10.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 57
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
10.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 119
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
10.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 50
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
10.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 27
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
11.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 71
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
11.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 32
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
13.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 66
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
13.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 47
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
14.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 116
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
14.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 112
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
15.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 40
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
15.3%
Florida House of Representatives District 51
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
15.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 74
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
16.4%
Florida House of Representatives District 39
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
17.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 16
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
17.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 36
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
17.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 79
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
17.8%
Florida House of Representatives District 12
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
18.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 65
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
18.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 78
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
18.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 86
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
19.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 25
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
19.8%
Florida House of Representatives District 37
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
20.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 1
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
21.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 24
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
22.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 31
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
22.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 35
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
22.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 73
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
23.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 82
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
24.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 111
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
24.3%
Florida House of Representatives District 113
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
25.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 80
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
25.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 54
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
26.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 77
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
26.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 52
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
27.4%
Florida House of Representatives District 22
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
27.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 98
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
28.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 49
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
28.5%
Florida House of Representatives District 76
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
29.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 55
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
31.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 23
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
32.1%
Florida House of Representatives District 38
Ends.png Republican
Grey.png Independent
32.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 106
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
33.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 34
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
38.6%
Florida House of Representatives District 33
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
39.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 11
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
39.7%
Florida House of Representatives District 17
Ends.png Republican
Grey.png Independent
40.9%
Florida House of Representatives District 4
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
44.3%
Florida House of Representatives District 48
Electiondot.png Democratic
Ends.png Republican
46.8%
Florida House of Representatives District 19
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
46.8%
Florida House of Representatives District 56
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
49.0%
Florida House of Representatives District 10
Ends.png Republican
Electiondot.png Democratic
49.8%
Florida House of Representatives District 3
Ends.png Republican
Grey.png Independent
57.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 87
Electiondot.png Democratic
Begins.png Green Party
69.2%
Florida House of Representatives District 108
Electiondot.png Democratic
Specialsession.png Libertarian
83.4%
Florida House of Representatives District 100
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 101
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 102
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 104
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 107
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 110
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 117
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 13
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 18
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 20
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 41
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 43
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 45
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 46
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 5
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 6
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 68
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 7
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 75
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 8
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 88
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 9
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 90
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 91
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 94
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 95
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 99
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 14
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 61
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 62
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 70
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 81
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 92
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 96
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 97
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 109
Electiondot.png Democratic
None
Unopposed
Florida House of Representatives District 2
Ends.png Republican
None
Unopposed


Seats flipped

See also: State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in the Florida House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Florida House of Representatives
District Incumbent 2018 winner Direction of flip
Florida House of Representatives District 103 Republican Party Manny Diaz Jr. Democratic Party Cindy Polo R to D
Florida House of Representatives District 118 Democratic Party Robert Asencio Republican Party Anthony Rodriguez D to R
Florida House of Representatives District 26 Democratic Party Patrick Henry Republican Party Elizabeth Fetterhoff D to R
Florida House of Representatives District 30 Republican Party Bob Cortes Democratic Party Joy Goff-Marcil R to D
Florida House of Representatives District 44 Republican Party Bobby Olszewski Democratic Party Geraldine Thompson R to D
Florida House of Representatives District 47 Republican Party Mike Miller Democratic Party Anna Eskamani R to D
Florida House of Representatives District 59 Republican Party Ross Spano Democratic Party Adam Hattersley R to D
Florida House of Representatives District 63 Republican Party Shawn Harrison Democratic Party Fentrice Driskell R to D
Florida House of Representatives District 69 Republican Party Kathleen Peters Democratic Party Jennifer Webb R to D

Incumbents retiring

Thirty-five incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[4] Those incumbents were:

Name Party Current Office
Clay Ingram Ends.png Republican House District 1
Frank White Ends.png Republican House District 2
Elizabeth Porter Ends.png Republican House District 10
Jay Fant Ends.png Republican House District 15
Jason Brodeur Ends.png Republican House District 28
Larry Metz Ends.png Republican House District 32
Don Hahnfeldt Ends.png Republican House District 33
Richard Corcoran Ends.png Republican House District 37
Mike Miller Ends.png Republican House District 47
Tom Goodson Ends.png Republican House District 51
Ben Albritton Ends.png Republican House District 56
Jake Raburn Ends.png Republican House District 57
Ross Spano Ends.png Republican House District 59
Sean Shaw Electiondot.png Democratic House District 61
Janet Cruz Electiondot.png Democratic House District 62
Larry Ahern Ends.png Republican House District 66
Kathleen M. Peters Ends.png Republican House District 69
Jim Boyd Ends.png Republican House District 71
Joe Gruters Ends.png Republican House District 73
Julio Gonzalez Ends.png Republican House District 74
Matt Caldwell Ends.png Republican House District 79
Joseph Abruzzo Electiondot.png Democratic House District 81
Gayle Harrell Ends.png Republican House District 83
Larry Lee, Jr. Electiondot.png Democratic House District 84
Bill Hager Ends.png Republican House District 89
Lori Berman Electiondot.png Democratic House District 90
George Moraitis Ends.png Republican House District 93
Barrington A. Russell Electiondot.png Democratic House District 95
Katie Edwards-Walpole Electiondot.png Democratic House District 98
Manny Diaz, Jr. Ends.png Republican House District 103
Carlos Trujillo Ends.png Republican House District 105
Cynthia Stafford Electiondot.png Democratic House District 109
David Richardson Electiondot.png Democratic House District 113
Michael Bileca Ends.png Republican House District 115
Jeanette Nuñez Ends.png Republican House District 119

Process to become a candidate

See also: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Florida

DocumentIcon.jpg See statutes: Chapter 99 of the Florida Statutes

In Florida, a candidate cannot file for more than one office at a time if the terms of those offices run concurrently. Thus, any elected public official wishing to run for office must resign if the term of that office will run concurrently with the office the official currently holds.[5]

Qualifying as a candidate

Major party, minor party, and unaffiliated candidates in Florida file in the same way. All qualifying paperwork and filing fees must be submitted to the Florida Department of State, Division of Elections, during the qualifying period corresponding to the office being sought. Qualifying periods are as follows:[6]

  1. For candidates seeking federal office, state attorney, or public defender, filing may begin after noon on the 120th day prior to the primary election and must be completed no later than noon on the 116th day before the primary election.
  2. For candidates seeking state office, other than state attorney or public defender, filing may begin after noon on the 71st day before the primary election and must be completed no later than noon on the 67th day before the primary election.
  • During a year in which the Florida State Legislature apportions the state, all candidates must file during the qualifying period designated for those seeking state office.

During the qualifying period, every candidate must file a full and public disclosure of financial interests, a form designating a campaign treasurer and campaign depository, qualifying fees or in-lieu-of-fee petitions, and a candidate oath. The candidate oath must be administered by the qualifying officer and must be signed in its written form by both the candidate and the qualifying officer, affirming the following:[5][7]

  1. The candidate is a registered voter.
  2. The candidate is qualified to run for and hold the office being sought.
  3. The candidate has not qualified for any other office in the state that runs for the same term as the office sought.
  4. The candidate has resigned from any other public office whose term would run at the same time as the office being sought.
  5. The assessment fee has been paid.
  6. If running with a political party, the candidate has not been a registered member of any other political party for 365 days before the beginning of the qualifying period.

Candidate filing fees

In Florida, candidates are required to pay filing fees and election assessment fees to the Division of Elections when qualifying. A party assessment fee may also be required, if the party the candidate is running with elects to levy one. For political party candidates, total fees are equal to 6 percent of the annual salary of the office being sought (i.e., a 3 percent filing fee, a 1 percent election assessment, and a 2 percent party assessment). For unaffiliated candidates, total fees are equal to 4 percent of the annual salary of the office being sought. (i.e., a 3 percent filing fee and a 1 percent election assessment).[8]

A candidate may waive the required filing fees if he or she submits an in-lieu-of-filing-fee petition with signatures equal to at least 1 percent of the total number of registered voters in the geographical area represented by the office being sought. Signatures for this petition may not be collected until the candidate has filed the appointment of campaign treasurer and designation of campaign depository form, and the completed petition must be filed by the 28th day preceding the first day of the qualifying period for the office being sought. This petition must be filed with the supervisor of elections in each county in which the petition was circulated in order to verify the signatures. The supervisor of elections in the county must then certify the number of valid signatures to the Florida Division of Elections no later than seven days prior to the first day of the corresponding qualifying period.[9]

Write-in candidates

A write-in candidate is not entitled to have his or her name printed on any ballots, but a space is provided for voters to write in a candidate's name on the general election ballot. A candidate may not qualify as a write-in candidate if he or she has qualified to run for public office by other means.[6][10]

A write-in candidate is required to file a candidate oath with the Florida Division of Elections. This is due during the standard qualifying period for the office being sought. A write-in candidate is not required to pay any filing fees.[6][7]

At the time of qualifying, the write-in candidate must reside within the district represented by the office being sought.[11]

Qualifications

See also: State legislature candidate requirements by state

To run for the Florida House of Representatives, candidates must be 21 years old, have lived in Florida for two years and live in the district they intend to serve.[12]

Salaries and per diem

See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
State legislative salaries, 2024[13]
SalaryPer diem
$29,697/year$175/day for a maximum of 60 days. Members can also receive per diem outside of the session.

When sworn in

See also: When state legislators assume office after a general election

Florida legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[14]

Florida political history

See also: Partisan composition of state houses and State government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, the Republicans majority in the Florida House of Representatives was reduced from 75-41 to 73-47.

Florida House of Representatives
Party As of November 6, 2018 After November 7, 2018
     Democratic Party 41 47
     Republican Party 75 73
     Vacancy 4 0
Total 120 120

2016

Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held a 79-41 majority, down from the 82-37 majority they held after the 2014 elections. A party needs to have 80 members to override gubernatorial vetoes without any votes from the other party.

Prior to the 1990s, Democrats maintained control in both chambers of the Legislature. The Senate became split in 1992 and moved to a Republican majority in the following election. Republicans took control of the House in 1996 and controlled both chambers through the 2016 elections.

Florida House of Representatives
Party As of November 7, 2016 After November 8, 2016
     Democratic Party 38 41
     Republican Party 81 79
     Vacancy 1 0
Total 120 120

Trifectas

A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Florida gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 1998 elections, when they took control of the governor's office. The trifecta was briefly broken in 2010 when Gov. Charlie Crist left the Republican Party to become an independent. Crist did not run for re-election in the 2010 gubernatorial election and the seat was won by Republican Rick Scott, which restored the Republican trifecta.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Impact of term limits

See also: Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2018 and Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018

The Florida House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Florida voters approved Amendment 9 in 1992. Amendment 9 altered Article VI, section 4 of the Florida Constitution to impose a maximum of four two-year terms on state representatives.

All 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 20 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:

Democratic: (3)

Republicans (17):

Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 24 of them—12 senate chambers and 12 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[17] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[18] The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.

A total of 271 state legislators—96 state senators and 175 state representatives—were ineligible to run in the 2018 elections because of term limits. This represented 4 percent of the 6,066 total seats up for election in November 2018.[19][20] Republicans had twice as many state legislators term-limited in 2018 than Democrats. A total of 86 Democrats were term-limited, while 177 Republicans were term-limited.

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

State legislative wave elections
Year President Party Election type State legislative seats change Elections analyzed[21]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -1,022 7,365
1922 Harding R First midterm -907 6,907
1966 Johnson D First midterm[22] -782 7,561
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -769 7,179
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -702 7,627
2010 Obama D First midterm -702 7,306
1974 Ford R Second midterm[23] -695 7,481
1920 Wilson D Presidential -654 6,835
1930 Hoover R Presidential -640 7,361
1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -494 7,513

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Click here to read the full study »


Historical context

See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

F5 Pop. % with uncontested state legislative races.png

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
  4. Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
  5. 5.0 5.1 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 97, Section 012," accessed March 10, 2014
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 061," accessed December 2, 2014
  7. 7.0 7.1 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 021," accessed March 10, 2014
  8. Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 092," accessed March 10, 2014
  9. Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 095," accessed March 10, 2014
  10. Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 061," accessed March 10, 2014
  11. Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 0615," accessed March 10, 2014
  12. Florida Division of Elections, "Candidate Qualifying Information," accessed December 16, 2103
  13. National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
  14. Florida Constitution, "Article III, Section 15(d)," accessed November 22, 2016
  15. Metz resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
  16. Diaz resigned his seat before the end of his term. He was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
  17. The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate were up for election in 2018 and have term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018.
  18. The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. In the three chambers, a total of 129 seats were up for election in 2018. No legislators were unable to run in 2018 in those three chamber because of term limits.
  19. Ballotpedia confirmed through phone calls that at least seven California legislators were term-limited in 2018. The number of California legislators term-limited and the overall number of term-limited state legislators had a chance to change if Ballotpedia could confirm that more members were term-limited in 2018.
  20. Some of the 271 term-limited state legislators in 2018 may resign before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2018.
  21. The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
  22. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  23. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  24. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  25. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Current members of the Florida House of Representatives
Leadership
Minority Leader:Fentrice Driskell
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
Sam Greco (R)
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
J.J. Grow (R)
District 24
District 25
District 26
Nan Cobb (R)
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
District 38
District 39
District 40
District 41
District 42
District 43
District 44
District 45
District 46
District 47
District 48
District 49
District 50
District 51
District 52
District 53
District 54
District 55
District 56
District 57
District 58
District 59
District 60
District 61
District 62
District 63
District 64
District 65
District 66
District 67
District 68
District 69
District 70
District 71
District 72
District 73
District 74
District 75
Danny Nix (R)
District 76
District 77
District 78
District 79
District 80
District 81
District 82
District 83
District 84
District 85
District 86
District 87
District 88
District 89
District 90
District 91
District 92
District 93
District 94
District 95
District 96
Dan Daley (D)
District 97
District 98
District 99
District 100
District 101
District 102
District 103
District 104
District 105
District 106
District 107
District 108
District 109
District 110
District 111
District 112
Alex Rizo (R)
District 113
District 114
District 115
District 116
District 117
District 118
District 119
District 120
Republican Party (85)
Democratic Party (35)