Florida House of Representatives elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 27 - Nov. 3[2]
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2018 Florida House elections | |
---|---|
General | November 6, 2018 |
Primary | August 28, 2018 |
Past election results |
2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
2018 elections | |
---|---|
Choose a chamber below: | |
Republicans maintained their majority in the Florida House of Representatives in the 2018 elections, winning 73 seats to Democrats' 47. All 120 House seats were up for election in 2018. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled 75 seats and Democrats controlled 41.
Republicans maintained their trifecta in Florida by holding the state House, the state Senate, and the governor's office.
Florida state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
The Florida House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. In 2017, three chambers in Virginia and New Jersey were up for election. In 2016, 86 out of 99 legislative chambers held elections. Prior to 2018, the Florida House of Representatives last held elections in 2016.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Republican Party maintained control of both chambers of the Florida State Legislature in the 2018 election. The Florida State Senate was identified as a battleground chamber. Twenty-two out of 40 seats were up for election. The Republican majority in the Florida State Senate was reduced from 26-14 to 25-15. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and one Republican incumbent was defeated in the general election.
The Florida House of Representatives held elections for all 120 seats. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives was reduced from 75-41 to 73-47. Four seats were vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary. Five incumbents were defeated in the general election; two Democrats and three Republicans.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Candidates
General election candidates
font-size: 16px !important;
} .thirdpartyname:not(:first-child) { padding-top: 5px; } .thirdpartyname { margin:0; } .candidate:last-child { padding-bottom: 5px; } @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) { .candidateListTablePartisan td { font-size: 12px !important; vertical-align: top; }
}
Florida House of Representatives General Election 2018
- Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
- = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office Democratic Republican Other District 1 District 2 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Alex Andrade
District 3 Jayer Williamson (i)
Bobbi Osborne (No Party Affiliation)
District 4 Mel Ponder (i)
District 5 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Brad Drake (i)
District 6 Jay Trumbull (i)
District 7 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Halsey Beshears (i)
District 8 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Ramon Alexander (i)
District 9 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Loranne Ausley (i)
District 10 Merrillee Malwitz Jipson (No Party Affiliation)
Fred Martin (No Party Affiliation)
District 11 Cord Byrd (i)
District 12 Clay Yarborough (i)
District 13 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Tracie Davis (i)
District 14 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Kimberly Daniels (i)
District 15 District 16 Jason Fischer (i)
District 17 Cyndi Stevenson (i)
Jaime Perkins (No Party Affiliation)
District 18 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Travis Cummings (i)
District 19 Bobby Payne (i)
District 20 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Clovis Watson Jr. (i)
District 21 Chuck Clemons (i)
District 22 Charlie Stone (i)
District 23 Stan McClain (i)
District 24 Paul Renner (i)
District 25 Tom Leek (i)
Joe Hannoush (Libertarian Party)
District 26 Patrick Henry (i)
District 27 David Santiago (i)
District 28 District 29 Scott Plakon (i)
District 30 Bob Cortes (i)
District 31 District 32 District 33 District 34 District 35 Blaise Ingoglia (i)
District 36 Amber Mariano (i)
District 37 District 38 Daniel Burgess (i)
David TK Hayes (No Party Affiliation)
District 39 Josie Tomkow (i)
District 40 Colleen Burton (i)
District 41 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Sam Killebrew (i)
District 42 Mike La Rosa (i)
District 43 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
John Cortes (i)
District 44 Bobby Olszewski (i)
District 45 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Kamia Brown (i)
District 46 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Bruce Antone (i)
District 47 District 48 Amy Mercado (i)
Did not make the ballot:
Scotland Calhoun
District 49 District 50 Rene Plasencia (i)
District 51 District 52 Thad Altman (i)
District 53 Randy Fine (i)
District 54 Erin Grall (i)
District 55 Cary Pigman (i)
District 56 District 57 District 58 Lawrence McClure (i)
District 59 District 60 Jackie Toledo (i)
District 61 District 62 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Susan Valdes
District 63 Shawn Harrison (i)
District 64 James Grant (i)
Andy Warrener (No Party Affiliation)
District 65 Chris Sprowls (i)
District 66 District 67 District 68 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Ben Diamond (i)
District 69 District 70 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Wengay Newton (i)
District 71 District 72 Margaret Good (i)
District 73 District 74 Robert Samuel Kaplan (No Party Affiliation)
District 75 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Michael Grant (i)
District 76 Ray Rodrigues (i)
District 77 Dane Eagle (i)
District 78 District 79 District 80 Byron Donalds (i)
Dustin Lapolla (No Party Affiliation)
District 81 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Tina Polsky
District 82 MaryLynn Magar (i)
District 83 District 84 District 85 Rick Roth (i)
District 86 Matt Willhite (i)
District 87 David Silvers (i)
Samson LeBeau Kpadenou (Green Party)
District 88 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Al Jacquet (i)
District 89 Did not make the ballot:
Deborah Gibson (No Party Affiliation)
District 90 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Joseph Casello
District 91 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Emily Slosberg (i)
District 92 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Patricia Hawkins-Williams (i)
District 93 Kelly Milam (No Party Affiliation)
District 94 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Bobby DuBose (i)
District 95 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Anika Tene Omphroy
District 96 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Kristin Jacobs (i)
District 97 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Jared Evan Moskowitz (i)
District 98 District 99 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Evan Jenne (i)
District 100 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Joseph Geller (i)
District 101 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Shevrin Jones (i)
District 102 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Sharon Pritchett (i)
District 103 District 104 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Richard Stark (i)
District 105 District 106 Bob Rommel (i)
District 107 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Barbara Watson (i)
District 108 Riquet Caballero (Libertarian Party)
District 109 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
James Bush III
District 110 The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected:
Jose Oliva (i)
District 111 Bryan Avila (i)
District 112 Nick Duran (i)
District 113 District 114 Javier Fernandez (i)
District 115 District 116 District 117 Kionne McGhee (i)
District 118 Robert Asencio (i)
District 119 Daniel Sotelo (No Party Affiliation)
District 120
Write-in candidates:
- William Davis, District 6
- Valion Joyce, District 61
- Jose Vasquez, District 62
Primary candidates
font-size: 16px !important;
} .thirdpartyname:not(:first-child) { padding-top: 5px; } .thirdpartyname { margin:0; } .candidate:last-child { padding-bottom: 5px; } @media only screen and (max-width: 600px) { .candidateListTablePartisan td { font-size: 12px !important; vertical-align: top; }
}
Florida House of Representatives Primary Election 2018
- Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name.
- = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office Democratic Republican Other District 1 District 2 District 3 Jayer Williamson (i)
District 4 Mel Ponder (i)
District 5 Brad Drake (i)
District 6 Jay Trumbull (i)
District 7 Halsey Beshears (i)
District 8 Ramon Alexander (i)
District 9 Loranne Ausley (i)
District 10 District 11 District 12 Clay Yarborough (i)
District 13 Tracie Davis (i)
District 14 District 15 District 16 Jason Fischer (i)
District 17 Cyndi Stevenson (i)
District 18 Travis Cummings (i)
District 19 Bobby Payne (i)
District 20 District 21 Chuck Clemons (i)
District 22 District 23 Stan McClain (i)
District 24 Paul Renner (i)
District 25 Tom Leek (i)
District 26 District 27 David Santiago (i)
District 28 District 29 Scott Plakon (i)
District 30 Bob Cortes (i)
District 31 District 32 District 33 District 34 District 35 Blaise Ingoglia (i)
District 36 Amber Mariano (i)
District 37 District 38 Daniel Burgess (i)
District 39 Josie Tomkow (i)
District 40 Colleen Burton (i)
District 41 Sam Killebrew (i)
District 42 Mike La Rosa (i)
District 43 John Cortes (i)
District 44 Bobby Olszewski (i)
District 45 Kamia Brown (i)
District 46 Bruce Antone (i)
District 47 Did not make the ballot:
Lou Forges
District 48 Amy Mercado (i)
District 49 District 50 District 51 District 52 Thad Altman (i)
Matt Nye
District 53 Randy Fine (i)
District 54 Erin Grall (i)
District 55 Cary Pigman (i)
District 56 The Republican primary was canceled.
District 57 District 58 Lawrence McClure (i)
District 59 District 60 Jackie Toledo (i)
District 61 District 62 District 63 Shawn Harrison (i)
District 64 District 65 Chris Sprowls (i)
District 66 District 67 District 68 Ben Diamond (i)
District 69 District 70 District 71 District 72 Margaret Good (i)
District 73 Did not make the ballot:
Melissa Howard
District 74 District 75 Michael Grant (i)
District 76 Ray Rodrigues (i)
District 77 Dane Eagle (i)
District 78 District 79 District 80 Byron Donalds (i)
District 81 District 82 MaryLynn Magar (i)
District 83 District 84 Forest Blanton
Delores Hogan Johnson
Kim Johnson
Robert Joseph
District 85 Rick Roth (i)
District 86 Matt Willhite (i)
District 87 District 88 Al Jacquet (i)
District 89 District 90 District 91 Emily Slosberg (i)
District 92 District 93 District 94 Bobby DuBose (i)
District 95 District 96 District 97 District 98 Andrew Dolberg
Elaine Geller
Michael Gottlieb
Stephen Korka
Daniel Stallone
District 99 Evan Jenne (i)
District 100 Joseph Geller (i)
District 101 Shevrin Jones (i)
District 102 Sharon Pritchett (i)
District 103 District 104 Richard Stark (i)
District 105 District 106 Bob Rommel (i)
District 107 Barbara Watson (i)
District 108 District 109 District 110 Jose Oliva (i)
District 111 Bryan Avila (i)
District 112 Nick Duran (i)
District 113 District 114 Javier Fernandez (i)
District 115 District 116 District 117 Kionne McGhee (i)
District 118 Robert Asencio (i)
District 119 Juan Fernandez-Barquin
Enrique Lopez
Analeen Martinez
Bibiana Potestad
District 120 Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Florida House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[3]
Florida House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[3] |
Democratic | ||||
Republican | ||||
Other | ||||
Total |
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the Florida House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Florida House of Representatives | |||
---|---|---|---|
District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
Florida House of Representatives District 103 | Manny Diaz Jr. | Cindy Polo | R to D |
Florida House of Representatives District 118 | Robert Asencio | Anthony Rodriguez | D to R |
Florida House of Representatives District 26 | Patrick Henry | Elizabeth Fetterhoff | D to R |
Florida House of Representatives District 30 | Bob Cortes | Joy Goff-Marcil | R to D |
Florida House of Representatives District 44 | Bobby Olszewski | Geraldine Thompson | R to D |
Florida House of Representatives District 47 | Mike Miller | Anna Eskamani | R to D |
Florida House of Representatives District 59 | Ross Spano | Adam Hattersley | R to D |
Florida House of Representatives District 63 | Shawn Harrison | Fentrice Driskell | R to D |
Florida House of Representatives District 69 | Kathleen Peters | Jennifer Webb | R to D |
Incumbents retiring
Thirty-five incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[4] Those incumbents were:
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: Chapter 99 of the Florida Statutes
In Florida, a candidate cannot file for more than one office at a time if the terms of those offices run concurrently. Thus, any elected public official wishing to run for office must resign if the term of that office will run concurrently with the office the official currently holds.[5]
Qualifying as a candidate
Major party, minor party, and unaffiliated candidates in Florida file in the same way. All qualifying paperwork and filing fees must be submitted to the Florida Department of State, Division of Elections, during the qualifying period corresponding to the office being sought. Qualifying periods are as follows:[6]
- For candidates seeking federal office, state attorney, or public defender, filing may begin after noon on the 120th day prior to the primary election and must be completed no later than noon on the 116th day before the primary election.
- For candidates seeking state office, other than state attorney or public defender, filing may begin after noon on the 71st day before the primary election and must be completed no later than noon on the 67th day before the primary election.
- During a year in which the Florida State Legislature apportions the state, all candidates must file during the qualifying period designated for those seeking state office.
During the qualifying period, every candidate must file a full and public disclosure of financial interests, a form designating a campaign treasurer and campaign depository, qualifying fees or in-lieu-of-fee petitions, and a candidate oath. The candidate oath must be administered by the qualifying officer and must be signed in its written form by both the candidate and the qualifying officer, affirming the following:[5][7]
- The candidate is a registered voter.
- The candidate is qualified to run for and hold the office being sought.
- The candidate has not qualified for any other office in the state that runs for the same term as the office sought.
- The candidate has resigned from any other public office whose term would run at the same time as the office being sought.
- The assessment fee has been paid.
- If running with a political party, the candidate has not been a registered member of any other political party for 365 days before the beginning of the qualifying period.
Candidate filing fees
In Florida, candidates are required to pay filing fees and election assessment fees to the Division of Elections when qualifying. A party assessment fee may also be required, if the party the candidate is running with elects to levy one. For political party candidates, total fees are equal to 6 percent of the annual salary of the office being sought (i.e., a 3 percent filing fee, a 1 percent election assessment, and a 2 percent party assessment). For unaffiliated candidates, total fees are equal to 4 percent of the annual salary of the office being sought. (i.e., a 3 percent filing fee and a 1 percent election assessment).[8]
A candidate may waive the required filing fees if he or she submits an in-lieu-of-filing-fee petition with signatures equal to at least 1 percent of the total number of registered voters in the geographical area represented by the office being sought. Signatures for this petition may not be collected until the candidate has filed the appointment of campaign treasurer and designation of campaign depository form, and the completed petition must be filed by the 28th day preceding the first day of the qualifying period for the office being sought. This petition must be filed with the supervisor of elections in each county in which the petition was circulated in order to verify the signatures. The supervisor of elections in the county must then certify the number of valid signatures to the Florida Division of Elections no later than seven days prior to the first day of the corresponding qualifying period.[9]
Write-in candidates
A write-in candidate is not entitled to have his or her name printed on any ballots, but a space is provided for voters to write in a candidate's name on the general election ballot. A candidate may not qualify as a write-in candidate if he or she has qualified to run for public office by other means.[6][10]
A write-in candidate is required to file a candidate oath with the Florida Division of Elections. This is due during the standard qualifying period for the office being sought. A write-in candidate is not required to pay any filing fees.[6][7]
At the time of qualifying, the write-in candidate must reside within the district represented by the office being sought.[11]
Qualifications
To run for the Florida House of Representatives, candidates must be 21 years old, have lived in Florida for two years and live in the district they intend to serve.[12]
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
State legislative salaries, 2024[13] | |
---|---|
Salary | Per diem |
$29,697/year | $175/day for a maximum of 60 days. Members can also receive per diem outside of the session. |
When sworn in
Florida legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[14]
Florida political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, the Republicans majority in the Florida House of Representatives was reduced from 75-41 to 73-47.
Florida House of Representatives | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
Democratic Party | 41 | 47 | |
Republican Party | 75 | 73 | |
Vacancy | 4 | 0 | |
Total | 120 | 120 |
2016
Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held a 79-41 majority, down from the 82-37 majority they held after the 2014 elections. A party needs to have 80 members to override gubernatorial vetoes without any votes from the other party.
Prior to the 1990s, Democrats maintained control in both chambers of the Legislature. The Senate became split in 1992 and moved to a Republican majority in the following election. Republicans took control of the House in 1996 and controlled both chambers through the 2016 elections.
Florida House of Representatives | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
Democratic Party | 38 | 41 | |
Republican Party | 81 | 79 | |
Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
Total | 120 | 120 |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Florida gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 1998 elections, when they took control of the governor's office. The trifecta was briefly broken in 2010 when Gov. Charlie Crist left the Republican Party to become an independent. Crist did not run for re-election in the 2010 gubernatorial election and the seat was won by Republican Rick Scott, which restored the Republican trifecta.
Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta • Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Impact of term limits
The Florida House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Florida voters approved Amendment 9 in 1992. Amendment 9 altered Article VI, section 4 of the Florida Constitution to impose a maximum of four two-year terms on state representatives.
All 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 20 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (3)
Republicans (17):
Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 24 of them—12 senate chambers and 12 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[17] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[18] The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.
A total of 271 state legislators—96 state senators and 175 state representatives—were ineligible to run in the 2018 elections because of term limits. This represented 4 percent of the 6,066 total seats up for election in November 2018.[19][20] Republicans had twice as many state legislators term-limited in 2018 than Democrats. A total of 86 Democrats were term-limited, while 177 Republicans were term-limited.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
State legislative wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[21] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[22] | -782 | 7,561 | |
1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[23] | -695 | 7,481 | |
1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 |
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Jefferson County, Florida | 5.06% | 1.75% | 3.66% | ||||
Monroe County, Florida | 6.82% | 0.44% | 4.90% | ||||
Pinellas County, Florida | 1.11% | 5.65% | 8.25% | ||||
St. Lucie County, Florida | 2.40% | 7.86% | 12.12% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[24][25]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 36.20% | 62.79% | R+26.6 | 34.08% | 62.44% | R+28.4 | R |
2 | 40.60% | 58.27% | R+17.7 | 39.85% | 55.53% | R+15.7 | R |
3 | 22.07% | 76.75% | R+54.7 | 19.63% | 76.01% | R+56.4 | R |
4 | 25.64% | 73.07% | R+47.4 | 24.90% | 69.68% | R+44.8 | R |
5 | 25.87% | 73.02% | R+47.2 | 21.51% | 76.01% | R+54.5 | R |
6 | 28.12% | 70.72% | R+42.6 | 25.59% | 70.40% | R+44.8 | R |
7 | 35.78% | 63.03% | R+27.3 | 29.54% | 67.81% | R+38.3 | R |
8 | 76.69% | 22.32% | D+54.4 | 74.29% | 22.33% | D+52 | D |
9 | 52.23% | 46.70% | D+5.5 | 52.98% | 42.92% | D+10.1 | D |
10 | 29.54% | 69.49% | R+40 | 24.47% | 73.15% | R+48.7 | R |
11 | 29.10% | 69.98% | R+40.9 | 28.75% | 67.52% | R+38.8 | R |
12 | 38.82% | 60.18% | R+21.4 | 39.91% | 55.90% | R+16 | R |
13 | 66.27% | 33.01% | D+33.3 | 64.06% | 33.01% | D+31.1 | D |
14 | 67.05% | 32.34% | D+34.7 | 64.74% | 32.99% | D+31.8 | D |
15 | 43.22% | 55.85% | R+12.6 | 43.85% | 52.54% | R+8.7 | R |
16 | 36.02% | 63.09% | R+27.1 | 38.53% | 57.46% | R+18.9 | R |
17 | 29.91% | 69.15% | R+39.2 | 31.55% | 64.91% | R+33.4 | R |
18 | 27.33% | 71.82% | R+44.5 | 27.27% | 69.17% | R+41.9 | R |
19 | 31.02% | 68.02% | R+37 | 25.79% | 71.54% | R+45.8 | R |
20 | 65.02% | 33.40% | D+31.6 | 63.38% | 32.58% | D+30.8 | D |
21 | 47.01% | 51.55% | R+4.5 | 47.92% | 47.87% | D+0.1 | R |
22 | 40.28% | 58.79% | R+18.5 | 35.09% | 62.28% | R+27.2 | R |
23 | 38.65% | 60.23% | R+21.6 | 31.70% | 65.06% | R+33.4 | R |
24 | 41.79% | 57.34% | R+15.6 | 35.96% | 61.17% | R+25.2 | R |
25 | 43.38% | 55.73% | R+12.4 | 37.23% | 59.47% | R+22.2 | R |
26 | 57.57% | 41.40% | D+16.2 | 49.01% | 47.49% | D+1.5 | D |
27 | 50.25% | 48.70% | D+1.6 | 42.51% | 54.04% | R+11.5 | R |
28 | 46.01% | 52.86% | R+6.9 | 46.02% | 49.59% | R+3.6 | R |
29 | 44.35% | 54.70% | R+10.4 | 45.97% | 50.16% | R+4.2 | R |
30 | 50.06% | 48.88% | D+1.2 | 51.93% | 43.61% | D+8.3 | R |
31 | 40.55% | 58.49% | R+17.9 | 37.12% | 59.50% | R+22.4 | R |
32 | 43.05% | 56.11% | R+13.1 | 40.66% | 56.10% | R+15.4 | R |
33 | 33.03% | 66.40% | R+33.4 | 29.41% | 68.70% | R+39.3 | R |
34 | 38.74% | 60.18% | R+21.4 | 28.67% | 68.26% | R+39.6 | R |
35 | 45.66% | 53.25% | R+7.6 | 34.40% | 62.35% | R+28 | R |
36 | 51.81% | 46.55% | D+5.3 | 37.97% | 58.18% | R+20.2 | R |
37 | 42.35% | 56.41% | R+14.1 | 34.77% | 61.75% | R+27 | R |
38 | 44.80% | 54.00% | R+9.2 | 39.90% | 56.32% | R+16.4 | R |
39 | 43.29% | 55.62% | R+12.3 | 38.74% | 57.77% | R+19 | R |
40 | 46.30% | 52.68% | R+6.4 | 41.48% | 54.62% | R+13.1 | R |
41 | 48.78% | 50.29% | R+1.5 | 45.76% | 51.24% | R+5.5 | R |
42 | 49.88% | 49.23% | D+0.7 | 46.82% | 49.98% | R+3.2 | R |
43 | 74.04% | 25.31% | D+48.7 | 73.13% | 24.03% | D+49.1 | D |
44 | 45.77% | 53.48% | R+7.7 | 51.21% | 45.05% | D+6.2 | R |
45 | 68.39% | 30.95% | D+37.4 | 67.75% | 29.32% | D+38.4 | D |
46 | 85.10% | 14.40% | D+70.7 | 82.72% | 14.71% | D+68 | D |
47 | 49.79% | 49.04% | D+0.8 | 53.85% | 41.40% | D+12.5 | R |
48 | 71.31% | 27.89% | D+43.4 | 71.71% | 25.05% | D+46.7 | D |
49 | 59.87% | 38.85% | D+21 | 61.07% | 33.94% | D+27.1 | D |
50 | 46.33% | 52.71% | R+6.4 | 46.10% | 49.78% | R+3.7 | R |
51 | 43.21% | 55.60% | R+12.4 | 37.31% | 58.51% | R+21.2 | R |
52 | 39.39% | 59.51% | R+20.1 | 36.49% | 59.05% | R+22.6 | R |
53 | 48.93% | 49.90% | R+1 | 42.52% | 53.45% | R+10.9 | R |
54 | 39.76% | 59.51% | R+19.8 | 37.01% | 60.11% | R+23.1 | R |
55 | 38.22% | 60.83% | R+22.6 | 31.47% | 66.00% | R+34.5 | R |
56 | 41.15% | 57.81% | R+16.7 | 35.36% | 61.69% | R+26.3 | R |
57 | 42.15% | 56.94% | R+14.8 | 42.01% | 54.38% | R+12.4 | R |
58 | 46.77% | 52.09% | R+5.3 | 43.06% | 53.20% | R+10.1 | R |
59 | 49.52% | 49.33% | D+0.2 | 47.68% | 48.08% | R+0.4 | R |
60 | 45.69% | 53.23% | R+7.5 | 47.16% | 48.50% | R+1.3 | R |
61 | 84.25% | 14.95% | D+69.3 | 80.00% | 16.79% | D+63.2 | D |
62 | 64.91% | 34.12% | D+30.8 | 63.03% | 33.28% | D+29.8 | D |
63 | 52.82% | 46.09% | D+6.7 | 53.22% | 42.91% | D+10.3 | R |
64 | 43.41% | 55.66% | R+12.3 | 43.51% | 52.80% | R+9.3 | R |
65 | 45.20% | 53.72% | R+8.5 | 41.15% | 55.05% | R+13.9 | R |
66 | 47.12% | 51.78% | R+4.7 | 41.07% | 55.29% | R+14.2 | R |
67 | 52.12% | 46.53% | D+5.6 | 45.78% | 49.98% | R+4.2 | R |
68 | 54.01% | 44.56% | D+9.5 | 50.98% | 44.15% | D+6.8 | D |
69 | 51.25% | 47.57% | D+3.7 | 46.57% | 49.53% | R+3 | R |
70 | 79.17% | 20.00% | D+59.2 | 73.65% | 23.39% | D+50.3 | D |
71 | 45.45% | 53.64% | R+8.2 | 42.72% | 53.89% | R+11.2 | R |
72 | 47.80% | 51.26% | R+3.5 | 46.03% | 50.71% | R+4.7 | D |
73 | 37.59% | 61.60% | R+24 | 35.82% | 61.14% | R+25.3 | R |
74 | 42.64% | 56.48% | R+13.8 | 37.10% | 60.20% | R+23.1 | R |
75 | 42.40% | 56.68% | R+14.3 | 34.70% | 62.49% | R+27.8 | R |
76 | 35.45% | 64.01% | R+28.6 | 35.24% | 61.90% | R+26.7 | R |
77 | 41.60% | 57.61% | R+16 | 36.05% | 60.86% | R+24.8 | R |
78 | 44.44% | 54.88% | R+10.4 | 42.96% | 53.85% | R+10.9 | R |
79 | 45.93% | 53.26% | R+7.3 | 39.89% | 57.01% | R+17.1 | R |
80 | 38.79% | 60.51% | R+21.7 | 36.96% | 60.49% | R+23.5 | R |
81 | 60.36% | 39.13% | D+21.2 | 59.06% | 39.12% | D+19.9 | D |
82 | 38.70% | 60.58% | R+21.9 | 36.91% | 60.22% | R+23.3 | R |
83 | 48.78% | 50.42% | R+1.6 | 43.71% | 53.43% | R+9.7 | R |
84 | 53.34% | 45.89% | D+7.5 | 47.96% | 49.59% | R+1.6 | D |
85 | 47.28% | 52.04% | R+4.8 | 44.74% | 52.71% | R+8 | R |
86 | 58.97% | 40.46% | D+18.5 | 56.40% | 41.24% | D+15.2 | D |
87 | 68.41% | 30.79% | D+37.6 | 65.09% | 32.03% | D+33.1 | D |
88 | 82.26% | 17.18% | D+65.1 | 78.19% | 19.67% | D+58.5 | D |
89 | 47.47% | 51.83% | R+4.4 | 48.96% | 48.44% | D+0.5 | R |
90 | 62.95% | 36.37% | D+26.6 | 59.38% | 38.20% | D+21.2 | D |
91 | 58.67% | 40.92% | D+17.8 | 59.17% | 39.23% | D+19.9 | D |
92 | 74.08% | 25.42% | D+48.7 | 71.50% | 26.66% | D+44.8 | D |
93 | 47.43% | 51.88% | R+4.5 | 48.32% | 49.43% | R+1.1 | R |
94 | 83.50% | 16.05% | D+67.5 | 81.01% | 17.21% | D+63.8 | D |
95 | 86.68% | 12.99% | D+73.7 | 85.09% | 13.47% | D+71.6 | D |
96 | 61.11% | 38.32% | D+22.8 | 60.59% | 37.30% | D+23.3 | D |
97 | 65.66% | 33.79% | D+31.9 | 65.26% | 32.41% | D+32.9 | D |
98 | 60.99% | 38.39% | D+22.6 | 61.02% | 36.58% | D+24.4 | D |
99 | 61.62% | 37.75% | D+23.9 | 59.47% | 38.07% | D+21.4 | D |
100 | 57.57% | 41.85% | D+15.7 | 58.15% | 39.86% | D+18.3 | D |
101 | 79.29% | 20.19% | D+59.1 | 76.54% | 21.27% | D+55.3 | D |
102 | 85.86% | 13.86% | D+72 | 83.21% | 15.08% | D+68.1 | D |
103 | 54.82% | 44.76% | D+10.1 | 58.71% | 39.21% | D+19.5 | R |
104 | 58.34% | 41.21% | D+17.1 | 62.33% | 35.40% | D+26.9 | D |
105 | 53.14% | 46.37% | D+6.8 | 56.16% | 41.22% | D+14.9 | R |
106 | 31.21% | 68.26% | R+37.1 | 33.84% | 63.71% | R+29.9 | R |
107 | 86.16% | 13.52% | D+72.6 | 83.68% | 14.67% | D+69 | D |
108 | 89.58% | 10.12% | D+79.5 | 87.11% | 11.24% | D+75.9 | D |
109 | 90.13% | 9.58% | D+80.6 | 86.38% | 12.14% | D+74.2 | D |
110 | 50.15% | 49.43% | D+0.7 | 52.71% | 45.14% | D+7.6 | R |
111 | 47.97% | 51.64% | R+3.7 | 52.16% | 45.66% | D+6.5 | R |
112 | 53.53% | 45.94% | D+7.6 | 61.62% | 35.70% | D+25.9 | D |
113 | 63.42% | 35.97% | D+27.5 | 67.40% | 30.24% | D+37.2 | D |
114 | 50.14% | 49.27% | D+0.9 | 55.75% | 41.60% | D+14.2 | D |
115 | 49.45% | 50.03% | R+0.6 | 54.08% | 43.37% | D+10.7 | R |
116 | 44.48% | 55.04% | R+10.6 | 50.91% | 46.43% | D+4.5 | R |
117 | 82.64% | 17.02% | D+65.6 | 78.36% | 19.57% | D+58.8 | D |
118 | 51.39% | 48.14% | D+3.3 | 54.87% | 42.54% | D+12.3 | D |
119 | 50.32% | 49.20% | D+1.1 | 55.15% | 42.23% | D+12.9 | R |
120 | 52.28% | 46.85% | D+5.4 | 49.21% | 47.52% | D+1.7 | R |
Total | 50.01% | 49.13% | D+0.9 | 47.82% | 49.02% | R+1.2 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
See also
- Florida House of Representatives
- Florida State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Florida state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Florida state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 97, Section 012," accessed March 10, 2014
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 061," accessed December 2, 2014
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 021," accessed March 10, 2014
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 092," accessed March 10, 2014
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 095," accessed March 10, 2014
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 061," accessed March 10, 2014
- ↑ Florida Statutes, "Title IX, Chapter 99, Section 0615," accessed March 10, 2014
- ↑ Florida Division of Elections, "Candidate Qualifying Information," accessed December 16, 2103
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ Florida Constitution, "Article III, Section 15(d)," accessed November 22, 2016
- ↑ Metz resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Diaz resigned his seat before the end of his term. He was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate were up for election in 2018 and have term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. In the three chambers, a total of 129 seats were up for election in 2018. No legislators were unable to run in 2018 in those three chamber because of term limits.
- ↑ Ballotpedia confirmed through phone calls that at least seven California legislators were term-limited in 2018. The number of California legislators term-limited and the overall number of term-limited state legislators had a chance to change if Ballotpedia could confirm that more members were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ Some of the 271 term-limited state legislators in 2018 may resign before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2018.
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017