Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018

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General election

General election for Governor of Tennessee

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bill Lee
Bill Lee (R)
 
59.6
 
1,336,106
Image of Karl Dean
Karl Dean (D)
 
38.6
 
864,863
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Sherry Clark (Independent)
 
0.2
 
5,198
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Mark Wright (Independent)
 
0.2
 
4,687
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Patrick Whitlock (Independent)
 
0.2
 
3,631
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Yvonne Neubert (Independent)
 
0.1
 
3,070
Image of Heather Scott
Heather Scott (Independent)
 
0.1
 
2,969
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Mark Brown (Independent)
 
0.1
 
2,841
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Joe Wilmoth (Independent)
 
0.1
 
2,444
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
George Blackwell Smith IV (Independent)
 
0.1
 
1,550
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Cory King (Independent)
 
0.1
 
1,502
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Independent)
 
0.1
 
1,396
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Justin Cornett (Independent)
 
0.1
 
1,217
Image of Chad Riden
Chad Riden (Independent)
 
0.0
 
1,096
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Robert Sawyers Sr. (Independent)
 
0.0
 
1,059
Image of Vinnie Vineyard
Vinnie Vineyard (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
1,012
Image of Rick Tyler
Rick Tyler (Independent)
 
0.0
 
981
Image of Gabriel Fancher
Gabriel Fancher (Independent)
 
0.0
 
869
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Sean Fleming (Independent)
 
0.0
 
814
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Alfred Rapoza (Independent)
 
0.0
 
800
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Jessie McDonald (Independent)
 
0.0
 
755
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Toney Mitchell (Independent)
 
0.0
 
739
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Mike Toews (Independent)
 
0.0
 
726
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Matthew Koch (Independent)
 
0.0
 
652
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Independent)
 
0.0
 
613
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Tommy McAnally (Independent)
 
0.0
 
609
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Jaron Weidner (Independent)
 
0.0
 
588
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
William Helmstetter (Independent)
 
0.0
 
496
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
11

Total votes: 2,243,294
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2022
2014
Governor of Tennessee
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 5, 2018
Primary: August 2, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent(s):
Bill Haslam (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2018
Impact of term limits in 2018
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Tennessee
executive elections
Governor

Tennessee held an election for governor on November 6, 2018. The candidate filing deadline was April 5, 2018.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

For more information about gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here.

SETTING THE STAGE
  • Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor was Bill Haslam (R), who was first elected in 2010 and was re-elected in 2014. Haslam was prevented from seeking a third term in 2018 due to term limits.
  • Heading into the election, Tennessee was a Republican trifecta. It had held this status since Haslam took office in 2011. Tennessee was also a Republican triplex.
  • Tennessee was won by the Republican candidate in each of the previous five presidential elections. The widest margin of victory was Donald Trump's 26 percent margin in 2016 while the narrowest was George W. Bush's four percent margin in 2000.
  • Tennessee was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.

    Candidates and election results

    See also: Statistics on gubernatorial candidates, 2018

    General election

    General election for Governor of Tennessee

    The following candidates ran in the general election for Governor of Tennessee on November 6, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Bill Lee
    Bill Lee (R)
     
    59.6
     
    1,336,106
    Image of Karl Dean
    Karl Dean (D)
     
    38.6
     
    864,863
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Sherry Clark (Independent)
     
    0.2
     
    5,198
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Mark Wright (Independent)
     
    0.2
     
    4,687
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Patrick Whitlock (Independent)
     
    0.2
     
    3,631
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Yvonne Neubert (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    3,070
    Image of Heather Scott
    Heather Scott (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    2,969
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Mark Brown (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    2,841
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Joe Wilmoth (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    2,444
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    George Blackwell Smith IV (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    1,550
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Cory King (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    1,502
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Tracy Yaste Tisdale (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    1,396
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Justin Cornett (Independent)
     
    0.1
     
    1,217
    Image of Chad Riden
    Chad Riden (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    1,096
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Robert Sawyers Sr. (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    1,059
    Image of Vinnie Vineyard
    Vinnie Vineyard (Independent) Candidate Connection
     
    0.0
     
    1,012
    Image of Rick Tyler
    Rick Tyler (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    981
    Image of Gabriel Fancher
    Gabriel Fancher (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    869
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Sean Fleming (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    814
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Alfred Rapoza (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    800
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Jessie McDonald (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    755
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Toney Mitchell (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    739
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Mike Toews (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    726
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Matthew Koch (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    652
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Jeremy Allen Stephenson (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    613
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Tommy McAnally (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    609
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Jaron Weidner (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    588
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    William Helmstetter (Independent)
     
    0.0
     
    496
     Other/Write-in votes
     
    0.0
     
    11

    Total votes: 2,243,294
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Democratic primary election

    Democratic primary for Governor of Tennessee

    Karl Dean defeated Craig Fitzhugh and Mezianne Vale Payne in the Democratic primary for Governor of Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Karl Dean
    Karl Dean
     
    75.1
     
    279,324
    Image of Craig Fitzhugh
    Craig Fitzhugh
     
    19.4
     
    72,263
    Image of Mezianne Vale Payne
    Mezianne Vale Payne Candidate Connection
     
    5.4
     
    20,253

    Total votes: 371,840
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Republican primary election

    Republican primary for Governor of Tennessee

    The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for Governor of Tennessee on August 2, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Bill Lee
    Bill Lee
     
    36.7
     
    289,699
    Image of Randy Boyd
    Randy Boyd
     
    24.3
     
    191,940
    Image of Diane Black
    Diane Black
     
    23.0
     
    181,719
    Image of Beth Harwell
    Beth Harwell
     
    15.3
     
    120,910
    Image of Kay White
    Kay White
     
    0.4
     
    3,181
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    Basil Marceaux
     
    0.2
     
    1,270

    Total votes: 788,719
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


    Endorsements

    Context of the 2018 election

    Race rating

    Race ratings: Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018
    Race trackerRace ratings
    November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
    The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Other 2018 statewide elections

    See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

    This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

    A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

    Republican winning streak

    See also: Winning streaks in 2018 gubernatorial elections

    Lee's victory in the general election was the third in a series beginning with Bill Haslam's (R) victory in 2010, continuing a record-long Republican winning streak in Tennessee gubernatorial elections. The longest Democratic winning streak in state history was 20 elections, occurring between 1922 and 1966.

    Wave election analysis

    See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

    The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

    Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

    Applying this definition to gubernatorial elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

    The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 gubernatorial waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

    Gubernatorial wave elections
    Year President Party Election type Gubernatorial seats change Elections analyzed[4]
    1970 Nixon R First midterm -12 35
    1922 Harding R First midterm -11 33
    1932 Hoover R Presidential -10 35
    1920 Wilson D Presidential -10 36
    1994 Clinton D First midterm -10 36
    1930 Hoover R First midterm -9 33
    1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -9 33
    1966 Johnson D First midterm[5] -9 35
    1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -8 33
    1982 Reagan R First midterm -7 36
    2010 Obama D First midterm -7 33

    State overview

    Partisan control

    This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Tennessee heading into the 2018 elections.

    Congressional delegation

    State executives

    State legislature

    • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly. They had a 25-69 majority in the state House and a 4-26 majority in the state Senate.

    Trifecta status

    See also: State government trifectas

    2018 elections

    See also: Tennessee elections, 2018

    Tennessee held elections for the following positions in 2018:

    Demographics

    Demographic data for Tennessee
     TennesseeU.S.
    Total population:6,595,056316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):41,2353,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:77.8%73.6%
    Black/African American:16.8%12.6%
    Asian:1.6%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
    Two or more:2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:4.9%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:85.5%86.7%
    College graduation rate:24.9%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$45,219$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:21.4%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Tennessee.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    As of July 2016, Tennessee's three largest cities were Nashville-Davidson (pop. est. 667,885), Memphis (pop. est. 652,236), and Knoxville (pop. est. 187,347).[6]

    State election history

    This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Tennessee from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Tennessee Secretary of State.[7]

    Historical elections

    Presidential elections

    Election results (President of the United States), Tennessee 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 60.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 34.7% 26.0%
    2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.5% Democratic PartyBarack Obama 39.1% 20.4%
    2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.9% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.8% 15.1%
    2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 42.5% 14.3%
    2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.2% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.3% 3.9%

    U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2014

    This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Tennessee from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

    Election results (U.S. Senator), Tennessee 2000-2014
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2014 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 61.9% Democratic Party Gordon Ball 31.9% 30.0%
    2012 Republican Party Bob Corker 64.9% Democratic Party Mark Clayton 30.4% 34.5%
    2008 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 65.1% Democratic Party Bob Tuke 31.6% 33.5%
    2006 Republican Party Bob Corker 50.7% Democratic Party Harold Ford, Jr. 48.0% 2.7%
    2002 Republican Party Lamar Alexander 54.3% Democratic Party Bob Clement 44.3% 10.0%
    2000 Republican Party Bill Frist 65.1% Democratic Party Jeff Clark 32.2% 32.9%

    Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Tennessee.

    Election results (Governor), Tennessee 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2014 Republican Party Bill Haslam 70.3% Democratic Party Charles Brown 22.8% 47.5%
    2010 Republican Party Bill Haslam 65.0% Democratic Party Mike McWherter 33.1% 31.9%
    2006 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 68.6% Republican Party Jim Bryson 29.7% 38.9%
    2002 Democratic Party Phil Bredesen 50.7% Republican Party Van Hilleary 47.6% 3.1%

    Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Tennessee in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

    Congressional delegation, Tennessee 2000-2016
    Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
    2016 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
    2014 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
    2012 Republican Party 7 77.8% Democratic Party 2 22.2% R+5
    2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
    2008 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
    2006 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
    2004 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.6% D+1
    2002 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
    2000 Republican Party 5 55.6% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

    Trifectas, 1992-2017

    A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

    Tennessee Party Control: 1992-2024
    Five years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
    Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
    Senate D D D D R D D D D D D D D R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
    House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

    Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
    County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
    Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

    In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

    Presidential results by legislative district

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Tennessee governor election 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    See also

    Tennessee government:

    Elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
    2. In Tennessee, most polling places were open between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All precincts closed at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and 7:00 p.m. Central.
    3. Tennessean, "Donald Trump quickly endorses Republican nominee for Tennessee governor Bill Lee after Thursday's election," August 3, 2018
    4. The number of gubernatorial seats up for election varies, with as many as 36 seats and as few as 12 seats being up in a single even-numbered year.
    5. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
    6. Tennessee Demographics, "Tennessee Cities by Population" accessed September 7, 2018
    7. Tennessee Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 7, 2018
    8. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
    9. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017