トランプ当é¸ã«å¯¾ã™ã‚‹ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã®å応・ãã®ï¼“ - himaginary’s diary
å‰ã€…回エントリã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ãŸã‚¹ãƒ¬ãƒƒãƒ‰ã§äºˆå‘Šã•ã‚ŒãŸé€šã‚Šã€ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ãŒãƒˆãƒ©ãƒ³ãƒ—当é¸ã®ä¸–ç•Œã¸ã®å½±éŸ¿ã«ã¤ã„ã¦è€ƒå¯Ÿã—ãŸã‚¹ãƒ¬ãƒƒãƒ‰ã‚’èµ·ã“ã—ã¦ã„る。 And now on global risks. Trump’s effects will not be confined to within the US borders. He will increase uncertainty around the world. My assessment is that his impact may be even more negative globally than nationally. The world is facing global challenges -- climate change, global pandemics, regulation and redirection of AI, and ad
トランプ当é¸ã«å¯¾ã™ã‚‹ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã®å応・ãã®ï¼’ - himaginary’s diary
å‰å›žã‚¨ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒªã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ãŸã‚¹ãƒ¬ãƒƒãƒ‰ã§äºˆå‘Šã•ã‚ŒãŸé€šã‚Šã€ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ãŒãƒˆãƒ©ãƒ³ãƒ—ã®æ”¿ç–ã«ã¤ã„ã¦è€ƒå¯Ÿã—ãŸã‚¹ãƒ¬ãƒƒãƒ‰ã‚’èµ·ã“ã—ã¦ã„る。 What about the economy under Trump? I don’t expect great news for workers, and I see big risks from Trump’s overall agenda, both because of his approach to AI and Silicon Valley, and because of his (likely) impact on US institutions. Trump is coming to power at a lucky time. Biden’s signature policies are showing signs of success, but their
トランプ当é¸ã«å¯¾ã™ã‚‹ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã®åå¿œ - himaginary’s diary
ãŒX（ツイッター）ã«æŠ•ç¨¿ã•ã‚Œã¦ã„る（H/T タイラー・コーエン）。å‰å›žã‚¨ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒªã§ã‚¯ãƒ«ãƒ¼ã‚°ãƒžãƒ³ã¨ãƒ–ランシャールã®åå¿œã¨ä½µã›ã¦ç´¹ä»‹ã—よã†ã‹ã¨æ€ã£ãŸãŒã€ã‹ãªã‚Šã®é•·æ–‡ãªã®ã§ã“ã‚Œã§ä¸€ã¤ã®ã‚¨ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒªã¨ã—ã¦ã¿ã‚‹ã€‚ This is a repost of my original thread about Trump's election, which has since disappeared. This time I am reposting it is a single message. I feel anxious and saddened by Trump’s election. Years of turmoil and uncertainty await us. I have also come to believe that this is not Trump’s win. It is the
オンラインビジãƒã‚¹ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã€ãƒ‡ã‚¸ã‚¿ãƒ«åºƒå‘Šã€ãŠã‚ˆã³ãƒ¦ãƒ¼ã‚¶ãƒ¼ã®åŽšç”Ÿ - himaginary’s diary
å‰ã€…回エントリã§ä»Šå›žãƒŽãƒ¼ãƒ™ãƒ«çµŒæ¸ˆå¦è³žã‚’å—賞ã—ãŸã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã®å…±è‘—NBER論文を紹介ã—ãŸãŒã€åŒã˜ã‚¿ã‚¤ãƒŸãƒ³ã‚°ã§ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã¯ãƒ†ãƒ¼ãƒžãŒã¾ã£ãŸãé•ã†åˆ¥ã®è¡¨é¡Œã®å…±è‘—NBER論文を上ã’ã¦ã„ãŸï¼ˆungated版）。原題ã¯ã€ŒOnline Business Models, Digital Ads, and User Welfareã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Daniel Huttenlocher（åŒï¼‰ã€Asuman Ozdaglar（åŒï¼‰ã€James Siderius（ダートマス大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ We present a model where social media platforms offer plans that intermix entertaining content with digital advertising (“adsâ€). Users derive ut
専制主義下ã§ã®èª¤è§£ã¨æ°‘主主義ã¸ã®è¦æ±‚ - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をアセモグルらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版）。原題ã¯ã€ŒMisperceptions and Demand for Democracy under Authoritarianismã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Cevat Giray Aksoy（ã‚ングス・カレッジ・ãƒãƒ³ãƒ‰ãƒ³ï¼‰ã€Ceren Baysan（トãƒãƒ³ãƒˆå¤§ï¼‰ã€Carlos Molina（å—カリフォルニア大）ã€Gamze Zeki（ストックホルム大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ This paper investigates whether enduring authoritarian regimes are in part rooted in the population’s misperceptions about their social and economic costs—as opposed
気候変動ã€æ–¹å‘付ã‘られãŸã‚¤ãƒŽãƒ™ãƒ¼ã‚·ãƒ§ãƒ³ã€ãŠã‚ˆã³ã‚¨ãƒãƒ«ã‚®ãƒ¼è»¢æ›ï¼šã‚·ã‚§ãƒ¼ãƒ«ã‚¬ã‚¹é©å‘½ã®é•·æœŸçš„å¸°çµ - himaginary’s diary
アセモグルã®æœ€è¿‘ã®NBERè«–æ–‡ã¯ãªã‚‹ã¹ã紹介ã™ã‚‹ã‚ˆã†ã«ã—ã¦ããŸã¤ã‚‚ã‚Šã ãŒã€æ˜¨å¹´9月ã®è¡¨é¡Œã®è«–文（ungated版）ãŒæŠœã‘ã¦ã„ãŸã®ã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ã¦ã¿ã‚‹ã€‚原題ã¯ã€ŒClimate Change, Directed Innovation, and Energy Transition: The Long-run Consequences of the Shale Gas Revolutionã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Philippe Aghion（コレージュ・ド・フランス）ã€Lint Barrage（ãƒãƒ¥ãƒ¼ãƒªãƒƒãƒ’工科大å¦ï¼‰ã€David Hémous（ãƒãƒ¥ãƒ¼ãƒªãƒƒãƒ’大å¦ï¼‰ã€‚ 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ We investigate the short- and long-term effects of a natural gas boom in an economy where energy
資本ã¨è³ƒé‡‘ - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文（原題ã¯ã€ŒCapital and Wagesã€ï¼‰ã‚’アセモグル（Daron Acemogluã€MIT）ãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ Does capital accumulation increase labor demand and wages? Neoclassical production functions, where capital and labor are q-complements, ensure that the answer is yes, so long as labor markets are competitive. This result critically depends on the assumption that capital accumulation does not change the technolog
ä¸ä¿¡ã€èª¤èªã€ãŠã‚ˆã³èª¤è§£ï¼šä¸å®Œå…¨æƒ…å ±ã¨ç´›äº‰å‹•å¦ - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をアセモグルらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版）。原題ã¯ã€ŒMistrust, Misperception, and Misunderstanding: Imperfect Information and Conflict Dynamicsã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Alexander Wolitzky（åŒï¼‰ã€‚ 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ Building on theories of international relations, we analyze how mistrust (uncertainty about an adversary's preferences or capabilities), misperception (imperfect observation of an adversary's actions), and misunders
転æ›çš„技術ã®è¦åˆ¶ - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をアセモグルらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版）。原題ã¯ã€ŒRegulating Transformative Technologiesã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Todd Lensman（åŒï¼‰ã€‚ 以下ã¯ãã®çµè«–部ã®å‰åŠ*1。 Advances in generative AI technologies, such as GPT-4 and other large language models, have both raised hopes of more rapid growth thanks to the rollout of these technologies and concerns about misuses and unforeseen negative consequences from their new capabilities.
ボトルãƒãƒƒã‚¯ï¼šéƒ¨é–€é–“ã®ä¸å‡è¡¡ã¨ç±³å›½ã®ç”Ÿç”£æ€§ã®æ¸›é€Ÿ - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をアセモグルã¨ã‚ªãƒ¼ã‚¿ãƒ¼ã‚‰ãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（H/T タイラー・コーエン；NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2023, volume 38ã®Chapter 3ã¨ã—ã¦ã‚‚上ãŒã£ã¦ã„る）。原題ã¯ã€ŒBottlenecks: Sectoral Imbalances and the US Productivity Slowdownã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€David Autor（åŒï¼‰ã€Christina Patterson（シカゴ大）。 以下ã¯ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã®ãƒ„イートã§ã®è§£èª¬ã€‚ A little bit of advertisement for a new paper, joint with David Autor and Christina Patterson, that has just come out as an NBER working p
民主主義ã¨çµŒæ¸ˆæˆé•· - himaginary’s diary
å‰å›žã¾ã§ã®3回ã®ã‚¨ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒªã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ãŸã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã‚¤ãƒ³ã‚¿ãƒ“ューã®æœ€å¾Œã§ã¯ã€æ°‘主主義ã¨çµŒæ¸ˆæˆé•·ã«ã¤ã„ã¦èªžã‚‰ã‚Œã¦ã„る。 EF: Shifting topics a little bit, in your 2019 article "Democracy Does Cause Growth," you and your co-authors found that democratic institutions are associated with economic growth. Why is that? What are the mechanisms behind this? Acemoglu: I'm proud of that paper because, for some reason, there was an emerging consensus within political scie
予想ã¨ãƒŽãƒ«ãƒ - himaginary’s diary
引ã続ãリッãƒãƒ¢ãƒ³ãƒ‰é€£éŠ€ã®ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã‚¤ãƒ³ã‚¿ãƒ“ューã«ã¤ã„ã¦ã®ã‚¨ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒªã€‚å‰å›žã€å‰ã€…回エントリã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ãŸç®‡æ‰€ã®å‰æ®µã§ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã¯ã€æ˜”ã¯çµŒæ¸ˆæˆé•·ã™ã‚Œã°åŠ´åƒè€…ã‚’å«ã‚社会ã®ã™ã¹ã¦ã®ã‚»ã‚°ãƒ¡ãƒ³ãƒˆãŒæ©æµã‚’å—ã‘ã‚‹ã¨è€ƒãˆã¦ã„ãŸãŒã€ä»Šã¯ãã®ã“ã¨ã‚’ãã‚Œã»ã©ç¢ºä¿¡ã—ã¦ã„ãªã„ã€ã¨è¿°ã¹ã¦ã„る。近著ã§ã¯ã€ãã®å•é¡Œã«é–¢ã—ã¦æ¬¡ã®3ã¤ã®è¦ç´ ã®é‡è¦æ€§ã‚’強調ã—ãŸã¨ã„ã†ã€‚ ãã®æ™‚点ã®æŠ€è¡“ã®æ€§æ ¼ 労åƒè€…ã®äº¤æ¸‰åŠ›ã‚’å½¢æˆã™ã‚‹åˆ¶åº¦ 予想ã¨ãƒŽãƒ«ãƒ （expectations and norms） ã“ã®ã†ã¡ã€æœ€å¾Œã®äºˆæƒ³ã¨ãƒŽãƒ«ãƒ ãŒã¨ã‚Šã‚ã‘é‡è¦ã€ã¨ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã¯ä¸»å¼µã™ã‚‹ã€‚一例ã¨ã—ã¦ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã¯ã€Alex Heã€Daniel le Maireã¨ã®å…±åŒç ”究*1ã§è¦‹ã„出ã•ã‚ŒãŸã€ãƒ“ジãƒã‚¹ã‚¹ã‚¯ãƒ¼ãƒ«ã§æ•™è‚²ã‚’å—ã‘ãŸçµŒå–¶è€…ãŒè³ƒé‡‘を削減ã™ã‚‹å‚¾å‘を挙ã’ã¦ã„る。彼らã¯ã€æ ªä¸»ã®åˆ©ç›Šã‚’追ã„求ã‚ã€ä¼æ¥ã‚’スリムã«ã™ã‚‹ã€ã¨ã„ã†ãƒ“ジョンãªã„ã—予想ãªã„ã—æ€æƒ³ã«å¾“ã£ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã€ã¨ã„ã†ã®ãŒã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«
ラッダイトãŒé”æˆã§ããšãƒ•ã‚©ãƒ¼ãƒ‰ãŒé”æˆã§ããŸã“㨠- himaginary’s diary
å‰å›žã‚¨ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒªã§ç´¹ä»‹ã—ãŸã‚¤ãƒ³ã‚¿ãƒ“ューã®ç¶šãã§ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ã¯ã€ãƒ©ãƒƒãƒ€ã‚¤ãƒˆé‹å‹•ã«ã¤ã„ã¦è§¦ã‚Œã¦ã„る。 EF: Objecting to the effects of new technology on labor is sometimes casually linked with the Luddites. As you know, the Luddites were a group of 19th-century English textile workers who responded to automation by destroying textile machinery. Setting aside their methods, what were the Luddites right about and what were they wrong about? Acemoglu: Ther
経済å¦çš„観点ã‹ã‚‰ã®AIè¦åˆ¶ã‚’妨ã’ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã‚‚ã® - himaginary’s diary
日本人ã¯ç”ŸæˆAIã«çŸ¥æ€§ã‚’幻視ã—ãŒã¡ã ãŒã€æ¬§ç±³äººã¯é“å…·ã¨ã—ã¦å‰²ã‚Šåˆ‡ã£ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã€ã¨ã„ã†ä¸»æ—¨ã®ã¯ã¦ãªåŒ¿åダイアリーãŒè©±é¡Œã«ãªã£ãŸãŒã€ãã‚‚ãã‚‚ãã†ã—ãŸå¹»æƒ³ã¯AIæ¥ç•Œã®é»Žæ˜ŽæœŸã«ç«¯ã‚’発ã—ã¦ãŠã‚Šã€ãã®å¹»æƒ³ãŒçµŒæ¸ˆå¦çš„視点ã‹ã‚‰ã®AIã®è¦åˆ¶ã‚’妨ã’ã¦ã„ã‚‹ã€ã¨ã„ã†è¶£æ—¨ã®ã“ã¨ã‚’ダãƒãƒ³ãƒ»ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ãŒãƒªãƒƒãƒãƒ¢ãƒ³ãƒ‰é€£éŠ€ã®Econ Focusã®ã‚¤ãƒ³ã‚¿ãƒ“ュー（H/T Mostly Economics）ã§è¿°ã¹ã¦ã„る。 EF: Arguments for regulating AI along economic lines seem uncommon now. More usually, one sees arguments about AI and alignment, about AI and long-term threats. Acemoglu: Those arguments really confuse the deb
文化ã€åˆ¶åº¦ã€ç¤¾ä¼šçš„å‡è¡¡ï¼šã‚ã‚‹æž çµ„ã¿ - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文（原題ã¯ã€ŒCulture, Institutions and Social Equilibria: A Frameworkã€ï¼‰ã‚’アセモグルï¼ãƒãƒ“ンソンãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版）。以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ This paper proposes a new framework for studying the interplay between culture and institutions. We follow the recent sociology literature and interpret culture as a “repertoire", which allows rich cultural responses to changes in the environment and shifts in political power. Specifically
戦争ã€ç¤¾ä¼šä¸»ç¾©ã€ãŠã‚ˆã³ãƒ•ã‚¡ã‚·ã‚ºãƒ ã®å‹ƒèˆˆï¼šå®Ÿè¨¼è¿½ç©¶ - himaginary’s diary
アセモグルã®NBER論文をもã†ä¸€ä¸ã€‚以下ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Giuseppe De Feo（レスター大）ã€Giacomo De Luca（ボゼン・ボルツァーノ自由大）ã€Gianluca Russo（ãƒãƒ³ãƒšã‚¦ãƒ»ãƒ•ã‚¡ãƒ–ラ大）ã«ã‚ˆã‚‹è¡¨é¡Œã®è«–文（ungated版ã€åŽŸé¡Œã¯ã€ŒWar, Socialism and the Rise of Fascism: An Empirical Explorationã€ï¼‰ã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ The recent ascent of right-wing populist movements in many countries has rekindled interest in understanding the causes of the rise of Fascism in inter-war years. In this paper, we argue
制度ã®å¤‰åŒ–ã¨åˆ¶åº¦ã®æŒç¶š - himaginary’s diary
ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をアセモグルらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る（ungated版）。原題ã¯ã€ŒInstitutional Change and Institutional Persistenceã€ã§ã€è‘—者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Georgy Egorov（ノースウエスタン大）ã€Konstantin Sonin（シカゴ大）。 以下ã¯ãã®è¦æ—¨ã€‚ In this essay, we provide a simple conceptual framework to elucidate the forces that lead to institutional persistence and change. Our framework is based on a dynamic game between different groups, who care both about current pol
進æ©ã®ç½ - himaginary’s diary
ã«ã¤ã„ã¦ã‚¢ã‚»ãƒ¢ã‚°ãƒ«ãŒã€ŒMinding the Perils of Progressã€ã¨é¡Œã—ãŸProject Syndicate論説ã§è«–ã˜ã¦ã„る（H/T Mostly Economics）。以下ã¯ãã®ä¸€ç¯€ã€‚ The improvements of the past 200 years are the fruits of industrialization, made possible by our acquisition of knowledge and mastery of technology. But this process involved trade-offs. Driven by the desire for wealth, firms and governments sought to reduce costs and boost productivity and profi
検査ãŒé€†åŠ¹æžœã«ãªã‚‹æ™‚ - himaginary’s diary
「Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing and the Spread of an Infectionã€ã¨ã„ã†NBER論文をアセモグルらãŒä¸Šã’ã¦ã„る。著者ã¯Daron Acemoglu（MIT）ã€Ali Makhdoumi（デューク大）ã€Azarakhsh Malekian（トãƒãƒ³ãƒˆå¤§ï¼‰ã€Asuman Ozdaglar（MIT）。 以下ã¯ãã®çµè«–部。 This paper studied the effects of testing on social activity and voluntary social distancing in the context of an epidemic. Social activity levels determine the (endogenous) social network over which contac
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