Pennsylvania gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018

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Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 6, 2018
Primary: May 15, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent(s):
Gov. Tom Wolf (Democrat)
Lt. Gov. Mike Stack (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Pennsylvania
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2018
Impact of term limits in 2018
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Pennsylvania
executive elections
Governor

Lieutenant governor

Sitting Gov. Tom Wolf (D) defeated former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) in the general election for governor of Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.

Although Wolf was first elected by a margin of 10 percentage points in 2014, Donald Trump (R) carried the state in the 2016 presidential election. The previous four presidential elections were won by the Democratic candidate, with Barack Obama (D) earning the largest victory margin at 10 percent in 2008. The narrowest was Trump's one percent margin in 2016.

The previous 10 gubernatorial elections were also split: Republican and Democratic candidates each won five.

A Republican victory could have shifted Pennsylvania from a divided government to a Republican trifecta with Republicans controlling both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office. Three race raters called the race Likely Democratic.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Pennsylvania state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals. The governor may not veto district map proposals for state legislative seats, which are drawn by a political commission.[1] Click here for more information on redistricting procedures.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on gubernatorial candidates, 2018

General election

General election for Governor of Pennsylvania

Incumbent Tom Wolf defeated Scott Wagner, Ken Krawchuk, and Paul Glover in the general election for Governor of Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom Wolf
Tom Wolf (D)
 
57.8
 
2,895,652
Image of Scott Wagner
Scott Wagner (R)
 
40.7
 
2,039,882
Image of Ken Krawchuk
Ken Krawchuk (L)
 
1.0
 
49,229
Image of Paul Glover
Paul Glover (G)
 
0.6
 
27,792

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 5,012,555
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for Governor of Pennsylvania

Incumbent Tom Wolf advanced from the Democratic primary for Governor of Pennsylvania on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom Wolf
Tom Wolf
 
100.0
 
749,812

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 749,812
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania

Scott Wagner defeated Paul Mango and Laura Ellsworth in the Republican primary for Governor of Pennsylvania on May 15, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Scott Wagner
Scott Wagner
 
44.3
 
326,612
Image of Paul Mango
Paul Mango
 
36.9
 
271,857
Image of Laura Ellsworth
Laura Ellsworth
 
18.8
 
138,843

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 737,312
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Lieutenant gubernatorial election

General election candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Tom Wolf, governor of Pennsylvania
TomWolf.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: Governor of Pennsylvania (assumed office: 2015), Secretary of Revenue of Pennsylvania (2007-2008)

Biography: Wolf earned his B.A. from Dartmouth College, M.A. from the University of London, and PhD from MIT. He served in the Peace Corps in India. He owned a kitchen cabinet supply and specialty building products company for more than two decades before being elected governor of Pennsylvania.[2]

Key messages
  • Wolf supported an extraction tax for the oil and gas industry.[3][4]
  • Wolf said he was able to raise nearly $1 billion in education funding and reduce the state's reliance on property taxes to fund schools. He said he accomplished these goals while working with a Republican state legislature.[4][5]
  • Wolf said Wagner wanted to tax retirement income. He released several videos highlighting Wagner calling seniors the greediest generation.[6][7]



Scott Wagner, former state senator
Scott Wagner.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: Pennsylvania State Senate (2014-2018)

Biography: After graduating from Dallastown Area High School, Wagner started several businesses. He owned York Waste Disposal for nearly two decades before starting Penn Waste. Wagner was the first state Senate candidate in state history to win his seat as a write-in candidate.[8][9]

Key messages
  • Wagner said his mission in office was to "protect your paycheck." He said he would reduce regulations imposed under the Wolf administration.[10]
  • Wagner said that he would eliminate school taxes on homes and stop a 45-year streak of tax increases on personal incomes, sales, and goods.[10]
  • Wagner presented himself as a self-made businessman who understood the struggles of the working class, driving his opposition to increased taxes.[9][11]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Governor of Pennsylvania, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Tom Wolf Republican Party Scott WagnerUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Franklin & Marshall University
September 17-23, 2018		N/A 52%30%18%+/-6.1545
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 12-19, 2018		N/A 55%38%8%+/-3.41,080
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
September 13-19, 2018		N/A 55%36%9%+/-5.5404
Rasmussen Reports
September 12-13, 2018		N/A 52%40%8%+/-3.5800
Marist College
August 12-16, 2018		NBC News 54%40%6%+/-4.2713
Suffolk University
June 21-25, 2018		N/A 47%36%15%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 52.5% 36.67% 10.67% +/-4.52 673.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

PredictIt Prices

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[15]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[16][17][18]

Race ratings: Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


General election endorsements
Endorsement Democratic Party Wolf Republican Party Wagner
Political figures
President Donald Trump (R)[19] ✔
Former President Barack Obama (D)[20] ✔
Vice President Mike Pence (R)[21] ✔

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available:

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Tom Wolf

Support

"The Only One" - Wolf campaign ad, released September 13, 2018
"Education" - Wolf campaign ad, released August 16, 2018
"That's Different" - Wolf campaign ad, released February 27, 2018

Oppose

"Seniors" - Wagner opposition ad, released September 6, 2018
"Drastic" - Wagner opposition ad, released August 1, 2018

Republican Party Scott Wagner

Support

"Education" - Wagner campaign ad, released August 8, 2018
"Self-Made" - Wagner campaign ad, released July 11, 2018

Oppose

"Came From" - Wolf opposition ad, released September 6, 2018

Debates and forums

October 1, 2018, debate

Wolf and Wagner participated in the only Pennsylvania gubernatorial debate of the election cycle on October 1, 2018, hosted by the Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry and moderated by Jeopardy! host Alex Trebek. The candidates discussed the budget, capital punishment, education, and the state's retirement system, among other issues.

  • Find the Morning Call round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the WHYY round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the York Daily Record round-up of the debate here.
Pennsylvania gubernatorial debate, October 1, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the candidates' websites.

Democratic Party Tom Wolf

“

REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Leading by Example

Governor Wolf refuses to take a state salary or pension. He also requires cabinet secretaries to post their expenses online each month.

SENIORS

Enhancing Quality of Care

Governor Wolf created a task force to enhance the quality of care for seniors in long-term living facilities.

OPIOID CRISIS

Improving Doctor Prescribing Guidelines

Governor Wolf has announced improved prescribing guidelines for the safe and effective use of opioids.

ENVIRONMENT

Banning Drilling in the Delaware River Basin

In September, Governor Wolf and the governors of Delaware and New York, comprising a majority of the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), announced that they voted in favor of a resolution put forward by the commission to issue draft regulations to permanently ban hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas in the Delaware River Basin.

ENVIRONMENT

Enacting the Gas Drilling Moratorium

With one of his first actions in office, Governor Wolf enacted a gas drilling moratorium on Pennsylvania’s state parks. Governor Wolf knows we must strike the right balance with Pennsylvania’s growing energy economy, and he knows our state parks and forests are unique assets that should be preserved, protected, and utilized by our residents for recreational purposes.

ENVIRONMENT

Fighting back against cuts from the Trump Administration

Governor Wolf stood up to Trump’s proposed cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency. These cuts if enacted would harm businesses seeking permits, and harm residents’ clean water, air, and land. The reductions would also impact safe drinking water inspections, sewage and industrial wastewater inspections, brownfield redevelopment, and eliminate funding for radon protection, a problem that plagues Pennsylvania homes.

Governor Wolf fought the Trump Administration’s efforts to delay new ozone pollution regulations. Governor Wolf fought this to protect children who suffer from asthma and respiratory illnesses.

ENVIRONMENT

Supporting Solar Energy

Governor Wolf reopened a $30 million loan program to encourage the use of solar energy in Pennsylvania. The governor is working to make sure that the benefits of increased renewable jobs, a cleaner environment, and a growing renewable economy will be felt throughout the commonwealth.

EDUCATION

Restored the $1 Billion Cut to Education Made Under Corbett

Governor Wolf has fully restored the $1 billion cut to education made under the Corbett administration that led to teacher layoffs, larger class sizes, and cuts to important programs.

EDUCATION REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Enacting a Fair Funding Formula

Governor Wolf believes that all children, no matter their zip code, deserve a high quality education. That’s why he enacted a fair funding formula that removes politics from school funding.

EDUCATION

Investing in Pre-K and Kindergarten

Governor Wolf knows that we need our students to start early in order to get a head start in life. Since he’s taken office, Governor Wolf has increased the number of children able to attend pre-kindergarten by 64% and increased the number of students enrolled in full-day kindergarten to 93,800.

EDUCATION

Preparing Students for 21st Century Jobs

Governor Wolf wants to make sure Pennsylvanians are prepared for jobs of the future. He’s launched Pennsylvania to third in the nation in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education and increased the number of credentials earned by students in career and technical education programs by 32%.

EDUCATION

Improving Graduation Rates

Under Governor Wolf, high school graduation rates have increased to 86%, making Pennsylvania a national leader.

EDUCATION

Improving School Safety and Security

Governor Wolf has made ensuring the safety of Pennsylvanians, especially our children, a top priority. That’s why he created a task force to bring together officials, educators, parents and students to talk about ways to improve school safety and security.

JOBS

Expanding Workforce Development Opportunities

Governor Wolf has approved nearly $1 million in funding through the new Manufacturing PA initiative for seven new training programs across Pennsylvania to give 250 job-seekers the skills they need to secure a stable, high-paying job in manufacturing and passed a manufacturing tax credit. Governor Wolf has supported the training of more than 120,000 workers at more than 2,200 companies across the commonwealth to help workers thrive in their jobs and develop more marketable skills.

REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Banning Gifts

Governor Wolf’s first actions as governor were to sign an executive order banning members of his administration from accepting gifts and reforming legal contracting to end the pay-to-play culture in Harrisburg.

HEALTH CARE OPIOID CRISIS

Expanding Medicaid

One of Governor Wolf’s first actions as Governor was to expand Medicaid giving an additional 720,000 Pennsylvanians the health care they need, including over 125,000 Pennsylvanians with substance abuse disorder.

HEALTH CARE

Reducing the Uninsured Rate

Governor Wolf has reduced Pennsylvania’s uninsured rate to 5.6%, the lowest rate on record.

HEALTH CARE PROGRESSIVE VALUES

Standing up to Donald Trump’s Extreme Agenda

Governor Wolf is standing up to Donald Trump’s extreme agenda by fighting against Trumpcare and proposed federal budget cuts that would eliminate Meals on Wheels, heating assistance for low-income people, and educational resources for students with disabilities.

PROGRESSIVE VALUES

Strengthening Animal Cruelty Laws

Governor Wolf signed Libre’s Law which improves Pennsylvania’s protection for animals. This bill increases penalties for animal cruelty and neglect and raises standards to ensure our pets and other animals are properly cared for.

PROGRESSIVE VALUES

Expanding Rights for our LGBTQ Community

Governor Wolf has expanded protections from discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender expression or identity for state employees and is fighting for similar protections at the statewide level.

SENIORS

Standing Up to Donald Trump’s Age Tax

Governor Wolf fought GOP efforts to institute an age tax and roll back prescription drug and health care coverage for our seniors.

JOBS

Fighting for A Minimum Wage Increase

Governor Wolf has fought for and continues to fight for a statewide minimum wage increase to $12 an hour, tied to inflation.

OPIOID CRISIS

Increasing Access to Overdose Antidote

Governor Wolf directed his physician general to sign a standing order for Naloxone, the overdose reversing antidote, so that any Pennsylvanians can get the life saving drug without a prescription. He also equipped law enforcement, first responders, and schools with the overdose-reversing antidote naloxone, leading to over 6,700 reversals since 2014.

REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Bringing the Liquor System into the 21st Century

Governor Wolf modernized Pennsylvania’s archaic liquor system by instituting the most significant reforms since Prohibition that improve customer convenience and for the first time allow beer to be sold at gas stations and c-stores and allow grocery stores to sell wine.

HEALTH CARE REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Legalizing Medical Marijuana

Governor Wolf signed a bill that legalized medical marijuana, providing long overdue medical relief to patients with serious medical conditions such as cancer & multiple sclerosis.

SENIORS

Upgrading Senior Community Centers

Governor Wolf invested millions in senior community centers in order to upgrade technology and facilities to give the centers the resources needed to revitalize and expand the services that enrich the lives or our senior population.

JOBS

Creating 21st Century Jobs

Governor Wolf has worked to expand companies like Amazon to make Pennsylvania a technology hub and passed a manufacturing tax credit.

ENVIRONMENT PROGRESSIVE VALUES

Standing up to Big Oil and Gas

Governor Wolf stopped the Republican plan to gut environmental regulations in favor of big oil and gas. Governor Wolf passed new safeguards that improved the protection of water and public resources, as well as public health and safety, and also addressed landowner concerns, enhanced transparency, and improved data management. JOBS

Eliminating Burdensome Business Taxes

Governor Wolf has eliminated burdensome taxes on businesses like the Capital Stock and Franchise Tax.

REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Improving Government Contracting

Governor Wolf signed an executive order to increase diverse and small business participation in state government contracting.

OPIOID CRISIS

Keeping Drugs off the Street

Governor Wolf strengthened the use of the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program so that doctors can identify if patients are “doctor shopping” and have been prescribed opioids by other physicians. The system now has 90,000 users who have conducted over one million searches. Governor Wolf also increased the number of drug-take back boxes to 700 for unwanted, expired, or unused prescriptions leading to the destruction of over 150 tons of drugs.

HEALTH CARE

Increasing Access to Health Insurance for our Kids

Governor Wolf has increased enrollment in the Children’s Health Insurance Program by 20%. The program now serves more than 180,000 Pennsylvania children.

SENIORS

Protecting the Lottery Fund for Senior Programs

Governor Wolf stabilized the Lottery Fund, which supports important senior programs, by authorizing the Pennsylvania Lottery to offer virtual sports games at Lottery retailers, including bars and taverns.

SENIORS

Increasing Opportunities to Age in Place

Governor Wolf has increased opportunities for older Pennsylvanians to remain in their homes. Under Governor Wolf, more than 50,000 additional seniors, a 41% increase, are able to age in their homes.

PROGRESSIVE VALUES REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Leading on Criminal Justice Reform

Governor Wolf has pushed for criminal justice reforms to refocus the system on rehabilitation and end mass incarceration. Under his leadership, Pennsylvania has reduced recidivism. The governor also banned the box on non-civil service applications for jobs under his jurisdiction and he signed into law a bill allowing non-violent ex-offenders to ask the court to seal their criminal records, which will help them to get jobs and not return to prison. The governor is also leading an initiative to further improve our criminal justice system from sentencing guidelines to our bail system.

REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Increasing Transparency

Governor Wolf publishes his schedule for the public each day and requires cabinet secretaries to post their expenses online each month.

SENIORS

Protecting Seniors’ Health Care

Governor Wolf saved more than 180,000 seniors from losing their Medicare Advantage health plans.

JOBS

Investing in Infrastructure

Under Governor Wolf, 1,300 roads, 600 bridges, and more than 6,000 miles of roadway have been repaired or rebuilt, with $6 billion in infrastructure improvements funding jobs across Pennsylvania. Governor Wolf announced plans for an additional investment of more than $2 billion in road, highway and bridge projects over the next 10 years.

OPIOID CRISIS

Expanding Access to Treatment

Governor Wolf signed a first-of-its-kind Statewide Disaster Declaration for the heroin and opioid epidemic to enhance state response and increase access to treatment. He worked with medical professionals to create 45 centers that will treat more than 11,000 individuals. Governor Wolf also launched a 24/7 helpline, 1-800-662-HELP, for those who need immediate assistance with drug and alcohol problems.

PROGRESSIVE VALUES

Protecting Women’s Right to Choose

Governor Wolf has vetoed the most extreme anti-choice bill in the country, which would criminalize abortions and leave no exceptions for rape, incest, health or tragic fetal anomalies. As a former Planned Parenthood patient escort, Governor Wolf has also opposed Republican efforts to defund the organization.

REFORMING GOVERNMENT

Reforming our Pension System

Governor Wolf signed comprehensive pension reform which reduced risk to taxpayers, continues to pay down our debt, and slashes Wall Street fees while still offering state employees fair benefits.

PROGRESSIVE VALUES

Unrigging the Political System

Governor Wolf rejected Republicans’ gerrymandered maps to ensure that Pennsylvanians are fairly represented. He introduced a voting reform plan that includes same day and automatic voter registration, modernizing absentee voting, and enacting campaign finance reform. Governor Wolf instituted online voter registration in 2015, resulting in over 1 million new or updated Pennsylvanian voter registrations. He also refused Donald Trump’s request for Pennsylvania voters’ personal information.

JOBS

Streamlining Services for Small Business

Governor Wolf has assisted more than 7,000 entrepreneurs and business owners by cutting through red tape and establishing the new PA Business One-Stop Shop.

JOBS

Investing in Job Creators

Governor Wolf’s investment in the creation of a Shell Cracker Plant in Western Pennsylvania, the Port of Philadelphia, and a steel plant in Johnstown will create over 15,000 jobs.[22]

”
—Wolf for PA[23]

Republican Party Scott Wagner

“

JOBS AND YOUR PAYCHECK

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

In a word, opportunity -- or lack of it. The Wolf Administration is chasing good-paying job providers away to other states -- and he's blocking Pennsylvania from becoming the economic powerhouse of the Northeast. Under Tom Wolf, PA has one of the most punishing tax and regulatory burdens in the country -- with more than 150,000 regulations on the books. As a job creator, Scott Wagner knows firsthand how Governor Wolf's failed policies are hurting job creators, often forcing them to close shop or move to states with better business climates -- taking good paying jobs (and our kids) with them.

SCOTT'S PLAN

Protecting paychecks means plenty of good paying jobs. To make that happen, Scott intends to treat entrepreneurs like the valuable job creators they are. He will free business owners to from regulations and burdensome processes so they can provide better paychecks for hard working Pennsylvanians who've waited far too long for a chance to get ahead. How? Scott is a man of action.

TAXES AND YOUR PAYCHECK

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

In a word, mismanagement. Recent reports found hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars were wasted, poorly invested, or lost. Our current governor, Tom Wolf, doesn't understand the concept of a hard earned dollar, because he's only ever known privilege and influence. His gross mismanagement takes a great deal of unecessary money out of your wallet. No governor has been more financially reckless, or done more to benefit wealthy special interests -- while treating hard working Pennsylvanians like ATM machines, and denying them the most basic considerations -- like safe, well-maintained roads.

SCOTT'S PLAN

Scott will protect your paycheck by cutting up Harrisburg's credit cards and shutting off the spending valve. He'll make it a place that takes less from you and returns more by forcing every agency to implement zero-based budgeting which will protect taxpayers from mismanagement. He'll sign legislation to eliminate the school taxes on your home, and he'll break Pennsylvania’s 45-year streak of tax increases on everything from personal income and sales, to gas and digital downloads.

EDUCATION AND YOUR PAYCHECK

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

In a word, politics. An immensely powerful school employees' union (the PSEA), and the politicians it controls, are diverting more and more money meant for students to an out of control state employee pension program. They’ve blocked Harrisburg from solving this crisis for students and overly burdened taxpayers. Politicians have promised, but failed to end reliance on property taxes to fund schools contributing to massive student inequality. Taxpayers are handcuffed to a system that drains them while it steals away the equal and excellent education our children deserve.

SCOTT'S PLAN

Scott will take on the big union bosses who own Tom Wolf -- so he can fix the student-robbing pension crisis and make sure funding goes to our students where it belongs. He'll end property tax reliance and make sure that no student is hurt by his or her zip code. He’ll sign legislation to stop over-prescribing of opioids and treat it like the code red crisis it is. He'll retool and reinvent the education system to prepare children to fill STEM jobs and the 200,000 available skilled labor positions.

THE CULTURE AND YOUR PAYCHECK

WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

In a word, self-interest. Harrisburg is notorious for a culture which has allowed politicians and wealthy special interests to prosper at the expense of hard working Pennsylvanians. It has become known as a place where bribery, fraud and abuse of power are casually accepted -- where public service has become profitable. PA is home to the most expensive, wasteful and lavish legislature in the country -- one that has left honest citizens behind, and forgotten their interests. Instead of a system that encourages service to those hard workers, we have a system that has bred a generation of career politicians who look out for themselves.

SCOTT'S PLAN

Scott knows that to protect paychecks, we have to ensure elected officials are working for taxpayers, not themselves. He'll push to reduce the size of the legislature, abolish lawmaker per diems, pensions and lifetime health insurance plans. To break the culture of political careerism, Scott will work toward limiting terms in the legislature. He’ll move to ban former lawmakers from lobbying and to prohibit lobbying firms from engaging in campaign work on behalf of politicians.[22]

”
—Wagner for Governor[24]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Tom Wolf Facebook

Republican Party Steve Wagner Facebook

Other 2018 statewide elections

See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Erie County, Pennsylvania 1.56% 16.03% 19.88%
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania 19.31% 4.81% 8.41%
Northampton County, Pennsylvania 3.78% 4.71% 12.30%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[25][26]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 89 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 84 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Clinton won 19 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 114 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 20 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 119 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


Election history

2014

See also: Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014

Democrats Tom Wolf and Mike Stack won election on November 4, 2014.

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTom Wolf/Mike Stack 54.9% 1,920,355
     Republican Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley Incumbent 45.1% 1,575,511
Total Votes 3,495,866
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State

2010

See also: Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2010

On November 2, 2010, Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley won election to the office of governor/lt. gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin in the general election.

governor/lt. gov. of Pennsylvania, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTom Corbett/Jim Cawley 54.5% 2,172,763
     Democratic Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin 45.5% 1,814,788
Total Votes 3,987,551
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State.

2006

On November 7, 2006, Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll won re-election to the office of Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Lynn Swann/Jim Matthews in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll Incumbent 60.4% 2,470,517
     Republican Lynn Swann/Jim Matthews 39.6% 1,622,135
Total Votes 4,092,652
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State.

2002

On November 5, 2002, Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Mike Fisher/Jane M. Earll, Ken V. Krawchuk/Henry E. Haller and Michael Morrill/Vicki J. Smedley in the general election.

Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngEd Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll 53.4% 1,913,235
     Republican Mike Fisher/Jane M. Earll 44.4% 1,589,408
     Libertarian Ken V. Krawchuk/Henry E. Haller 1.1% 40,923
     Green Michael Morrill/Vicki J. Smedley 1.1% 38,423
Total Votes 3,581,989
Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State.

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to gubernatorial elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 gubernatorial waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

Gubernatorial wave elections
Year President Party Election type Gubernatorial seats change Elections analyzed[27]
1970 Nixon R First midterm -12 35
1922 Harding R First midterm -11 33
1932 Hoover R Presidential -10 35
1920 Wilson D Presidential -10 36
1994 Clinton D First midterm -10 36
1930 Hoover R First midterm -9 33
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -9 33
1966 Johnson D First midterm[28] -9 35
1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -8 33
1982 Reagan R First midterm -7 36
2010 Obama D First midterm -7 33

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Pennsylvania heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 11 state executive positions, while six were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of Pennsylvania was Democrat Tom Wolf.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • Pennsylvania was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Tom Wolf (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2018

Pennsylvania held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Pennsylvania
 PennsylvaniaU.S.
Total population:12,791,904316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):44,7433,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:81.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11%12.6%
Asian:3.1%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.1%3%
Hispanic/Latino:6.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:28.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,599$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).[29][30]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Pennsylvania every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.9% 0.7%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.1% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.7% 5.4%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.7% Republican Party John McCain 44.3% 10.4%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.0% Republican Party George Bush 48.5% 2.5%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.6% Republican Party George Bush 46.4% 4.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Patrick Toomey 48.8% Democratic Party Katie McGinty 47.3% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Bob Casey 53.7% Republican Party Tom Smith 44.6% 9.1%
2010 Republican Party Patrick Toomey 51.0% Democratic Party Joe Sestak 49.0% 2.0%
2006 Democratic Party Bob Casey 58.7% Republican Party Rick Santorum 41.3% 17.4%
2004 Republican Party Arlen Specter 52.6% Democratic Party Joseph Hoeffel 42.0% 10.6%
2000 Republican Party Rick Santorum 52.4% Democratic Party Ron Klink 45.5% 6.9%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Pennsylvania.

Election results (Governor), Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Tom Wolf 54.9% Republican Party Thomas Corbett 45.1% 9.8%
2010 Republican Party Thomas Corbett 54.5% Democratic Party Dan Onorato 45.5% 9.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ed Rendell 60.4% Republican Party Lynn Swann 39.6% 20.8%
2002 Democratic Party Ed Rendell 53.4% Republican Party Mike Fisher 44.3% 9.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Pennsylvania 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2014 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2012 Republican Party 13 72.2% Democratic Party 5 27.8% R+8
2010 Republican Party 12 63.2% Democratic Party 7 36.8% R+5
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 8 42.1% Democratic Party 11 57.9% D+3
2004 Republican Party 12 63.2% Democratic Party 7 36.8% R+5
2002 Republican Party 12 63.2% Democratic Party 7 36.8% R+5
2000 Republican Party 11 52.4% Democratic Party 10 47.6% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Pennsylvania Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D


Recent news

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Pennsylvania governor election 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

Pennsylvania gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 - Google News

See also

Pennsylvania government:

Elections:

Ballotpedia exclusives:

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ All about Redistricting, "Who draws the lines?" accessed January 24, 2018
  2. ↑ Wolf for PA, "About," accessed September 28, 2018
  3. ↑ YouTube, "Wolf – The Only One," September 13, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 WITF, "Governor Wolf puts tax plans far behind him as he seeks a 2nd term," July 2, 2018
  5. ↑ WHYY, "Full of optimism, Gov. Wolf prepares for re-election," January 7, 2018
  6. ↑ PoliticsPA, "PA Gov: Wolf Blasts Wagner in 2 New Ads," August 8, 2018
  7. ↑ YouTube, "Wolf – Came From," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ PennLive, "Scott Wagner makes history with his win in York County Senate race," March 18, 2014
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Wagner for Governor, "About Scott," accessed September 28, 2018
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Wagner for Governor, "Scott's Plan," accessed September 28, 2018
  11. ↑ YouTube, "Wagner – Self-Made," July 11, 2018
  12. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  13. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  15. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  16. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  17. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  18. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  19. ↑ Wagner for Governor, "President Trump Endorses Scott Wagner," August 3, 2018
  20. ↑ Twitter, "Wolf for PA," September 21, 2018
  21. ↑ FOX 43, "Scott Wagner receives endorsement from Vice President Mike Pence in Pa. governor’s race," June 20, 2018
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  23. ↑ Wolf for PA, "Record," accessed September 27, 2018
  24. ↑ Wagner for Governor, "Scott's Plan," accessed September 27, 2018
  25. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  26. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  27. ↑ The number of gubernatorial seats up for election varies, with as many as 36 seats and as few as 12 seats being up in a single even-numbered year.
  28. ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  29. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Pennsylvania," accessed January 3, 2018
  30. ↑ Pennsylvania Demographics, "Pennsylvania Cities by Population," accessed January 3, 2018
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