United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018

Elections in Arizona, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
• Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 2
• Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6

• Online registration: Yes
• Same-day registration: No
• Voter ID: Non-photo ID
• Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • Governor • Attorney General • Secretary of State • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local judges • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • Democratic primaries • Republican primaries

2022 → ← 2016
U.S. Senate, Arizona
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Jeff Flake (Republican) Election winner: Kyrsten Sinema (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Arizona U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special) Arizona elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate race (special)Mississippi U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate race (special)Missouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Arizona on November 6, 2018. Sinema's victory was the closest U.S. Senate election in the state since former Sen. Barry Goldwater (R) won re-election to his third and final term by fewer than 10,000 votes over Democrat Bill Schulz in 1980.

Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R), who was first elected in 2012, did not seek re-election.

Angela Green (G) appeared on the ballot, but she withdrew from the race and endorsed Sinema on November 1, 2018.

A Democratic victory in this race was considered critical to the party potentially taking control of the chamber. "The Democratic path to a majority in the Senate is narrow and fraught, and if it exists at all, it runs through Arizona, a conservative state that last sent a Democrat to the upper chamber 30 years ago," The Hill reported.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

The race was rated a toss-up by three outlets. The open seat, the state's growing Latino population, and President Donald Trump's (R) four-point margin of victory in the 2016 presidential election made this a competitive election.

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Note: Angela Green (G) withdrew from the race on November 1, 2018, but still appeared on the ballot.

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Martha McSally and Angela Green in the general election for U.S. Senate Arizona on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kyrsten Sinema (D)	50.0	1,191,100
		Martha McSally (R)	47.6	1,135,200
		Angela Green (G)	2.4	57,442
		Other/Write-in votes	0.0	566

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 2,384,308 (100.00% precincts reporting)
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema defeated Deedra Abboud in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Kyrsten Sinema	79.3	404,170
		Deedra Abboud	20.7	105,800

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 509,970
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• David Ruben (D)
• Bob Bishop (D)
• Cheryl Fowler (D)
• Richard Sherzan (D)
• Chris Russell (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

Martha McSally defeated Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Martha McSally	54.6	357,626
		Kelli Ward	27.6	180,926
		Joe Arpaio	17.8	116,555

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 655,107
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Craig Brittain (R)
• Nicholas Tutora (R)
• Christian Diegel (R)
• Michelle Griffin (R)

Green primary election

No Green candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Eve Reyes-Aguirre (G)

Libertarian primary election

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Doug Marks (L)

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages

Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. representative

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: U.S. House, Arizona's 9th Congressional District (assumed office: 2013); Arizona State Senate (2011-2012); Arizona House of Representatives (2005-2011)

Biography: After receiving a master's degree in social work and a J.D. from Arizona State University, Sinema worked as an adjunct professor and a faculty member for the Center for Progressive Leadership. She was first elected to the state legislature in 2004 and the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012.

Key messages

• Sinema presented herself as an independent voice in Congress committed to bipartisan solutions. She was the third-most bipartisan member of Congress, according to a GovTrack.us analysis of the 114th Congress.

• Sinema identified access to quality healthcare, veterans benefits, job growth, and national security as policy priorities. She pointed to her experience coming from a military family and cosponsorship of the VA MISSION Act—which she said helped improve veterans' access to healthcare—as examples of her commitment to veterans and the military.

• Sinema said she experienced homelessness and poverty in her childhood. She shared her personal experiences when discussing education, job training, and overcoming adversity.

Martha McSally, U.S. representative

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: U.S. House, Arizona's 2nd Congressional District

Biography: McSally graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy and served in the Air Force for 26 years before retiring in 2010 as a colonel. She also earned a master's degree in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a master's degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Air War College. She served as a professor of National Security Studies at the George C. Marshall Center in Germany and was elected to Congress in 2014.

Key messages

• McSally highlighted her military service, including being the first woman in U.S. history to fly a fighter jet in combat and the first woman to command a fighter squadron.

• McSally pointed to her legislative focus on veterans and the military—including helping to fund the A-10 Warthog and authoring legislation to prioritize veterans for border security jobs—as a show of her accomplishments and focus on national security.

• McSally characterized Sinema as misunderstanding national security and disrespecting the military because of anti-war protests she engaged in following the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally
Poll	Poll sponsor	Sinema	McSally	Other/Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights November 2-3, 2018	N/A	48%	49%	3%	+/-3.9	631
Trafalgar Group October 30-November 1, 2018	N/A	50%	47%	3%	+/-2.1	2,166
Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018	N/A	52%	48%	0%	+/-3.7	677
Fox News October 27-29, 2018	N/A	46%	46%	8%	+/-3.5	643
CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018	N/A	51%	47%	2%	+/-4.4	702
HighGround Public Affairs October 26-28, 2018	N/A	45%	47%	9%	+/-4.9	400
NBC News/Marist October 23-27, 2018	N/A	50%	44%	6%	+/-5.4	506
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 17-26, 2018	N/A	46%	48%	6%	+/-4.0	799
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights October 22-23, 2018	N/A	45%	52%	3%	+/-4.0	600
AVERAGES		48.11%	47.56%	4.44%	+/-3.99	791.56
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Click [show] to see older poll results

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, September 10-October 26, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Sinema McSally Other/Undecided Margin of error Sample size CBS News/YouGov October 23-26, 2018 N/A 47% 44% 9% +/-4.1 972 The New York Times/Siena College October 15-19, 2018 N/A 46% 48% 6% +/-4.2 606 Data Orbital October 16-17, 2018 N/A 47% 41% 12% +/-4.0 600 CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 N/A 47% 44% 9% +/-3.6 898 OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 Arizona October 1-2, 2018 N/A 41% 47% 12% +/-4.0 600 Fox News Poll September 27-October 2, 2018 N/A 47% 45% 8% +/-3.5 716 Suffolk University September 27-30, 2018 N/A 45% 42% 13% +/-4.4 500 Latino Decisions September 10-25, 2018 Arizona State University 47% 41% 11% +/-3.5 775 AVERAGES 45.88% 44% 10% +/-3.91 708.38 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]. U.S. Senate election in Arizona, March 15-September 21, 2018 Poll Kyrsten Sinema (D) Martha McSally (R) Other/Undecided Margin of Error Sample Size Emerson September 19-21, 2018 45% 39% 17% +/-4.4 650 NBC News September 16-20, 2018 48% 45% 7% +/-4.7 564 CNN/SSRS September 11-15, 2018 50% 43% 7% +/-4.3 761 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 5-14, 2018 47% 44% 9% +/-3.5 1,016 Fox News September 8-11, 2018 47% 44% 8% +/-3.5 710 ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights September 5-6, 2018 46% 49% 5% +/-4.0 597 Gravis Marketing September 5-7, 2018 48% 49% 3% +/-3.3 882 Data Orbital September 4-6, 2018 44% 40% 16% +/-4.2 550 ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights July 23-25, 2018 48% 44% 8% +/-4.0 600 Gravis Marketing June 27-July 2, 2018 43% 39% 18% +/-3.2 925 Emerson June 21-22, 2018 40% 32% 28% +/-4.0 650 NBC News/Marist College June 17-21, 2018 49% 38% 13% +/-4.5 839 Axios/SurveyMonkey April 2-23, 2018 51% 42% 7% +/-4.0 1,667 Public Policy Polling March 15-16, 2018 46% 41% 13% +/-4.2 547 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]

PredictIt Prices

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Kyrsten Sinema	Democratic Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Martha McSally	Republican Party	$21,876,370	$20,952,576	$923,794	As of December 31, 2018
Angela Green	Green Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. *** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

• America First Action reported it was spending $350,000 on phone, digital, and mail campaigns for McSally in October 2018.

• The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) spent $300,000 on English- and Spanish-language ads criticizing the immigration policies of Arpaio, McSally, and Ward.

• Defend Arizona spent more than $1 million on an ad campaign against Sinema in September 2018. The group spent another $1.1 million on an ad defending McSally on her healthcare policy in October 2018.

• The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee reserved $5 million in ads beginning late September 2018.

• EMILY's List spent $139,000 on an ad opposing McSally in September 2018.

• Majority Forward spent $434,000 on ads running from August 31 through September 10, 2018. In October 2018, Majority Forward and VoteVets made a $1 million ad buy criticizing McSally for her healthcare policy.

• The National Republican Senatorial Committee reserved $2.1 million in ad time to run from Labor Day through mid-October 2018.

• One Nation spent $700,000 on an ad campaign running from August 30 through September 5, 2018.

• Red and Gold, a Democratic group formed in August 2018, spent $815,000 on an ad campaign against McSally.

Race ratings

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2018
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 30, 2018	October 23, 2018	October 16, 2018	October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Kyrsten Sinema

Support

"Go Forward" - Sinema campaign ad, released October 11, 2018

"True Test" - Sinema campaign ad, released September 30, 2018

"Whatever It Takes" - Sinema campaign ad, released September 6, 2018

"Your Voice (Spanish)" - Sinema campaign ad, released August 23, 2018

"Work Together," Sinema campaign ad, released March 20, 2018

"Paul," Sinema campaign ad, released March 20, 2018

"Kyrsten Sinema Ha Estado En Sus Zapatos," Sinema campaign ad, released March 20, 2018

Oppose

"Meth Lab" - NRSC ad, released October 17, 2018

"Handcuffs" - Defend Arizona ad, released October 10, 2018

"Frontlines" - NRSC ad, released October 10, 2018

"Advocated" - Defend Arizona ad, released October 4, 2018

"Sided With" - Defend Arizona ad, released October 2, 2018

"No One Was Looking" - NRSC, released September 24, 2018

"Did" - Defend Arizona ad, released September 18, 2018

"Act" - NRSC ad, released September 14, 2018

"Looked" - Defend Arizona ad, released September 11, 2018

"Luke Air Force Base" - McSally opposition ad, released September 10, 2018

"Lynn" - McSally opposition ad, released September 8, 2018

Martha McSally

Support

"Health Care and Trafficking" - McSally campaign ad, released October 24, 2018

"Call Martha McSally" - U.S. Chamber Action ad, released October 10, 2018

"Resolve" - McSally campaign ad, released October 4, 2018

"Character and Commitment" - McSally campaign ad, released October 2, 2018

"Marco" - McSally campaign ad, released September 14, 2018

"National Security" - McSally campaign ad, released August 23, 2018

Oppose

"Dangerous" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 31, 2018

"The Choice" - DSCC ad, released October 26, 2018

"Borrar" - EMILY's List ad, released October 19, 2018

"Brag" - VoteVets ad, released October 15, 2018

"Betrayed" - DSCC ad, released October 9, 2018

"Anthony" - EMILY's List ad, released October 8, 2018

"Steve" - Majority Forward ad, released October 2, 2018

"Arizonans Say" - DCCC ad, released September 19, 2018

"Three Times" - Majority Forward ad, released September 18, 2018

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement	Kyrsten Sinema	Martha McSally
Elected officials
Former President Barack Obama (D)	✔
President Donald Trump (R)		✔

Debates and forums

October 15, 2018, debate

Sinema and McSally debated on October 15, 2018, at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. The candidates discussed the Trump administration, Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, and healthcare, among other issues.

• Find the Arizona Daily Star round-up of the debate here.
• Find the Hill round-up of the debate here.
• Find the Roll Call' round-up of the debate here.

U.S. Senate debate in Arizona, October 15, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites.

Kyrsten Sinema

“	FIXING A DYSFUNCTIONAL WASHINGTON Arizonans know Washington is dysfunctional. Too many politicians are more concerned about the next election than doing what’s best for everyday people. Many think the rules we all follow don’t apply to them. Not Kyrsten. Kyrsten was ranked the third most independent member of Congress. Kyrsten supports the No Budget, No Pay bill that says if Congress doesn’t pass a budget, they shouldn’t get paid. She voted against her own pay raise and cosponsored legislation to dock pay for members of Congress who engage in bad behavior. She also worked across the aisle to introduce the Cut The Perks Act, a bill that holds political appointees accountable for misusing taxpayer dollars and requires them to pay back illegally spent funds. Arizonans know neither party is right all the time and Congress needs to work together to get things done. We believe that delivering results is more important than scoring political points. That’s why Kyrsten will work with anyone – regardless of party – who’s serious about getting things done for everyday Arizonans. QUALITY, AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE FOR ALL ARIZONANS Growing up, Kyrsten’s family struggled to make ends meet and, for a while, they didn’t have health insurance. That experience helped shape Kyrsten’s belief that no child should ever go without a doctor, and no family should be forced to choose between getting the care they need and paying their bills. It’s why she voted against health care repeal that would have stripped coverage from hundreds of thousands of Arizonans, sent premiums skyrocketing for older patients and those with pre–existing conditions, and cut billions in funding from AHCCCS, worsening the opioid epidemic in Arizona. Kyrsten knows our health care system is broken, but she believes we should work together to fix the problems – not simply repeal everything without real solutions. Kyrsten is committed to making sure Arizonans have access to more health care choices, low–cost prescription drugs, and high–quality, dependable coverage. As one of the most independent–minded members of Congress, she’s committed to working with anyone – regardless of party – to get it done. SUPPORTING OUR VETERANS AND FIXING THE VA Kyrsten comes from a military family – one brother is a Marine and the other is an active duty Sailor – so for her, honoring our commitments to veterans is personal. Kyrsten believes taking care of our active duty military and veterans is one of the most important obligations we have as Americans. Every American who wears the uniform deserves our respect and full support, both on the battlefield and when he or she returns home. When Kyrsten learned the Phoenix VA was failing to provide adequate care for Arizona veterans, she stood up for those who defend our freedoms and took on the VA to make sure no veteran is left without the care he or she needs. Kyrsten worked across the aisle to improve health care for veterans, expand educational opportunities, and hold the VA accountable. She cosponsored the VA MISSION Act to help ensure Arizona veterans have access to the high-quality health care they deserve, where and when they need it. The VA MISSION Act was signed into law in June 2018. Kyrsten has also supported our veterans by hosting Boots to Books resource fairs to connect them with the educational opportunities they need to start their next careers. As an independent voice for Arizona, Kyrsten will keep fighting to make sure every veteran gets the benefits he or she has earned. KEEPING ARIZONA FAMILIES SAFE Kyrsten knows there’s nothing more important than keeping Arizona families safe. That’s why she’s worked to keep our military strong and fully funded, pushed for aggressive action to defeat ISIS and other overseas threats, and supported law enforcement here at home. Kyrsten believes we need a strong, smart strategy to defeat terrorism. That means destroying terrorists abroad and stopping terrorists from entering our country. Kyrsten has fought to cut off terrorist groups from the illicit revenue they count on. She has passed laws to make sure the United States has an effective plan to keep money out of the hands of terrorists and to cut off oil revenue to ISIS. Arizona has a proud military tradition, and servicemembers and veterans are a vital part of our communities. That’s why Kyrsten has worked to save military jobs here in Arizona and voted to increase funding for our military bases and give servicemembers a pay raise. In the Senate, she’ll continue working to ensure our troops have everything they need to keep us safe and free. KEEPING OUR PROMISES TO SENIORS Kyrsten knows how important it is to keep our promises to seniors. She understands that Medicare and Social Security aren’t line items in a budget for politicians to cut – they’re benefits Arizonans have earned through a lifetime of hard work. Kyrsten is committed to protecting benefits for current seniors and future generations, and she refuses to cut Medicare and Social Security or raise the retirement age. Kyrsten is working to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in the system to strengthen Social Security and Medicare. She’s also protected seniors’ hard-earned savings from financial fraud by introducing bills like the Senior Safe Act, which was signed into law in 2018. After a lifetime of hard work, Arizonans deserve to retire with dignity. Kyrsten is committed to making sure our seniors get the respect and security they deserve. CREATING GOOD JOBS AND GROWING ARIZONA’S ECONOMY Kyrsten knows that for Arizona to thrive, we have to build an economy that works for everyone. She’s worked across the aisle to help create good-paying jobs, cut red tape for small businesses, and grow Arizona’s economy. Kyrsten is committed to closing the gender pay gap because making sure every Arizonan gets equal pay for equal work is critical to our state’s economic success. Kyrsten believes supporting Arizona businesses is key to creating jobs and helping our communities thrive. In recognition of her support for Arizona businesses, Kyrsten has received the Chamber of Commerce’s Spirit of Enterprise award every year she has served Arizona in Congress. Kyrsten is committed to helping Arizonans thrive all across our state. She’s worked across the aisle to help family farmers, supported expanding rural broadband, and fought to protect community health centers that are so vital to rural Arizona. Kyrsten went through tough times as a kid and education was her ticket to a better life. Kyrsten understands education is the key to economic opportunity and must be supported at all levels. That’s why Kyrsten worked with Senator John McCain to protect $3.5 billion in school funding for Arizona. She has also worked across the aisle to make college and skills training more affordable. Kyrsten is committed to making sure all Arizonans have the skills they need to succeed in the 21st century workforce. COMMONSENSE IMMIGRATION REFORM Arizonans understand that Washington’s failure to act on immigration has hurt our economy and our communities. We want real solutions to fix this broken system, not just more partisan talk. Arizonans know that commonsense immigration solutions would secure our border, protect our DREAMers, keep families together, and strengthen Arizona’s economy. That’s why Kyrsten continues to work across the aisle on commonsense immigration solutions. Kyrsten is a cosponsor of the USA Act, a solution supported by both parties that invests in smart border security while providing permanent protection for Dreamers. Kyrsten is also a long-time supporter of the DREAM Act. DREAMers are hardworking Arizonans who serve in our military, graduate from our schools, and contribute to our economy. She believes they deserve to become citizens of the only country they’ve ever known. Kyrsten will continue working to fix the broken immigration system so we can keep Arizonans safe and our families strong. STANDING UP FOR WOMEN AND FAMILIES Kyrsten has always been a passionate advocate for women and families. Her first job was helping survivors of domestic violence, and she’s taken that dedication into public service. In Arizona, Kyrsten passed laws to increase penalties on sex traffickers and empower law enforcement to crack down on predators. Kyrsten stood up for kids by working with her colleagues across the aisle to expand the critically important AMBER Alert system to tribal lands in Arizona and across the U.S. She also successfully led a bipartisan effort to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act. Kyrsten believes a woman, her family, and her doctor should decide what’s best for her health – not Washington politicians. She stands up for women’s health clinics like Planned Parenthood and opposes efforts to let employers deny workers coverage for basic health care like birth control. Kyrsten believes women deserve equal pay for equal work, and she’s determined to help close the gender pay gap.	”
—Sinema for Senate

Martha McSally

No campaign themes were available on McSally's campaign website, as of September 14, 2018.

Social media

Twitter accounts

Tweets by kyrstensinema Tweets by marthamcsally

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Kyrsten Sinema

Martha McSally

Timeline

• November 1, 2018: Angela Green (G) withdrew from the race and endorsed Sinema. Green still appeared on the ballot.
• October 31, 2018: In six public opinion polls conducted between October 22 and October 29, Sinema and McSally traded the lead by single-digit margins. An OH Predictive Insights poll showed McSally with a 7-point lead, while an NBC News/Marist poll found Sinema leading by 6 percentage points.
• October 23, 2018: America First Action reported it was spending $350,000 on phone, digital, and mail campaigns for McSally.
• October 19, 2018:
  • In a New York Times/Siena College poll of 606 likely voters, McSally led Sinema by 2 percentage points, 48 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 4.2 percent.
  • In a Data Orbital poll of 600 likely voters, Sinema led McSally by 6 percentage points, 47 percent to 41 percent. The margin of error was 4.0 percent.
• October 16, 2018: Majority Forward and VoteVets made a $1 million ad buy criticizing McSally for her healthcare policy.
• October 15, 2018: Sinema and McSally debated at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. The candidates discussed the Trump administration, Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court, and healthcare, among other issues.
• October 10, 2018: Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R) and former President George W. Bush (R) were scheduled to campaign for McSally on October 12 and October 19, respectively.
• October 9, 2018: Defend Arizona spent an additional $1.1 million on an ad campaign defending McSally on her healthcare policy.
• October 2, 2018: The McSally campaign released an ad featuring Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) praising McSally.
• October 1, 2018: Former President Barack Obama (D) endorsed Sinema as part of his second wave of 2018 endorsements.
• September 30, 2018: Sinema released a campaign ad focused on her senior policy, including Social Security and Medicare.
• September 14, 2018: VoteVets.org spent $200,000 on an ad campaign opposing McSally.
• September 12, 2018
  • An OH Predictive Insights poll found McSally leading Sinema by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent, in a survey of 597 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.0 percent.
  • A Fox News poll found Sinema leading McSally by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent, in a survey of 710 likely voters. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
• September 10, 2018: The McSally campaign released an ad, "Lynn," featuring a U.S. Navy veteran saying she could not vote for Sinema.
• June 26, 2018: NBC News released the results of a poll it conducted alongside Marist College. The poll, which was conducted between June 17 and June 21, asked 839 registered voters who they would support in hypothetical matchups between Kyrsten Sinema (D) and three Republican candidates. The poll found that in a matchup against Martha McSally (R), 49 percent of voters would back Sinema while 38 percent would back McSally. In a matchup against Joe Arpaio (R), 57 percent of voters would back Sinema and 32 percent would back Arpaio. In a matchup against Kelli Ward (R), 48 percent would back Sinema while 38 percent would back Ward.
• April 9, 2018: Sinema launched an ad campaign featuring her brother, a police officer, with a $400,000 ad buy.
• April 4, 2018: The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a Google ad campaign against Sinema for her vote against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
• March 21, 2018: Public Policy Polling released a poll finding Sinema leading McSally by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, in a general election match.
• March 20, 2018: Sinema released two positive ads highlighting her CQ Magazine rating as the third-most independent member of Congress.

Other 2018 statewide elections

See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

States holding both Gubernatorial and Senate elections in 2018
State	Incumbent Governor	Open Seat?	Incumbent Senator	Open Seat?
Arizona	Doug Ducey	No	Jeff Flake	Yes
California	Jerry Brown	Yes	Dianne Feinstein	No
Connecticut	Dan Malloy	Yes	Chris Murphy	No
Florida	Rick Scott	Yes	Bill Nelson	No
Hawaii	David Ige	No	Mazie Hirono	No
Maine	Paul LePage	Yes	Angus King	No
Maryland	Larry Hogan	No	Ben Cardin	No
Massachusetts	Charlie Baker	No	Elizabeth Warren	No
Michigan	Rick Snyder	Yes	Debbie Stabenow	No
Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Yes	Amy Klobuchar	No
Nebraska	Pete Ricketts	No	Deb Fischer	No
Nevada	Brian Sandoval	Yes	Dean Heller	No
New Mexico	Susana Martinez	Yes	Martin Heinrich	No
New York	Andrew Cuomo	No	Kirsten Gillibrand	No
Ohio	John Kasich	Yes	Sherrod Brown	No
Pennsylvania	Tom Wolf	No	Bob Casey, Jr.	No
Rhode Island	Gina Raimondo	No	Sheldon Whitehouse	No
Tennessee	Bill Haslam	Yes	Bob Corker	Yes
Texas	Greg Abbott	No	Ted Cruz	No
Vermont	Phil Scott	No	Bernie Sanders	No
Wisconsin	Scott Walker	No	Tammy Baldwin	No
Wyoming	Matt Mead	Yes	John Barrasso	No

Election history

2016

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	John McCain Incumbent	53.7%	1,359,267
	Democratic	Ann Kirkpatrick	40.7%	1,031,245
	Green	Gary Swing	5.5%	138,634
	N/A	Write-in	0.1%	1,584
Total Votes				2,530,730
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Jeff Flake	49.2%	1,104,457
	Democratic	Richard Carmona	46.2%	1,036,542
	Libertarian	Marc Victor	4.6%	102,109
	Independent	Steven Watts (Write-in)	0%	290
	Independent	Don Manspeaker (Write-in)	0%	24
Total Votes				2,243,422
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year	President	Party	Election type	Senate seats change	Senate majority
1932	Hoover	R	Presidential	-13	D (flipped)
1958	Eisenhower	R	Second midterm	-12	D
1946	Truman	D	First midterm	-10	R (flipped)
1980	Carter	D	Presidential	-9	R (flipped)
2014	Obama	D	Second midterm	-9	R (flipped)
1942	Roosevelt	D	Third midterm	-8	D
2008	George W. Bush	D	Presidential	-8	D
1926	Coolidge	R	First midterm	-7	R
1930	Hoover	R	First midterm	-7	R
1986	Reagan	R	Second midterm	-7	D (flipped)

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	30.1%	68.2%	R+38.2	28.6%	66.9%	R+38.3	R
2	57.2%	41.6%	D+15.7	59.4%	36.1%	D+23.2	D
3	70.0%	28.1%	D+41.9	70.2%	24.4%	D+45.8	D
4	54.3%	44.2%	D+10.2	56.8%	38.2%	D+18.7	D
5	28.1%	70.0%	R+41.9	22.2%	73.5%	R+51.3	R
6	42.2%	55.6%	R+13.4	41.7%	52.1%	R+10.4	R
7	63.2%	35.4%	D+27.8	59.8%	34.1%	D+25.7	D
8	44.7%	53.5%	R+8.8	40.2%	54.6%	R+14.4	R
9	53.4%	44.9%	D+8.4	56.8%	37.9%	D+18.9	D
10	51.8%	46.5%	D+5.4	52.9%	41.6%	D+11.4	D
11	39.7%	59.0%	R+19.3	40.6%	54.5%	R+13.9	R
12	32.5%	65.9%	R+33.4	34.8%	59.3%	R+24.5	R
13	33.5%	65.1%	R+31.6	34.1%	61.1%	R+27	R
14	35.7%	62.5%	R+26.8	33.6%	59.9%	R+26.2	R
15	36.4%	61.9%	R+25.4	39.1%	55.7%	R+16.6	R
16	35.0%	63.1%	R+28.1	32.9%	61.3%	R+28.4	R
17	42.1%	56.2%	R+14.2	45.1%	49.2%	R+4.1	R
18	48.1%	50.0%	R+1.9	51.9%	41.5%	D+10.4	R
19	66.4%	32.1%	D+34.3	67.4%	27.2%	D+40.3	D
20	42.4%	55.3%	R+12.9	42.7%	50.7%	R+8	R
21	40.6%	58.0%	R+17.4	39.8%	55.0%	R+15.2	R
22	33.4%	65.4%	R+31.9	33.7%	62.1%	R+28.4	R
23	35.9%	62.9%	R+26.9	41.2%	54.6%	R+13.3	R
24	63.2%	34.4%	D+28.8	65.9%	27.7%	D+38.3	D
25	33.1%	65.1%	R+31.9	35.1%	58.7%	R+23.6	R
26	58.3%	38.5%	D+19.8	59.4%	31.9%	D+27.5	D
27	75.2%	23.2%	D+52	74.1%	20.6%	D+53.5	D
28	44.6%	53.6%	R+9	49.9%	44.6%	D+5.3	R
29	64.7%	33.6%	D+31.1	65.0%	29.3%	D+35.7	D
30	61.3%	36.7%	D+24.7	62.2%	31.7%	D+30.5	D
Total	44.6%	53.7%	R+9.1	45.5%	49.0%	R+3.6	-
Source: Daily Kos

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona.
• Republicans held five of the nine U.S. House seats in Arizona.

State executives

• As of September 2018, Republicans held 7 of 11 state executive positions. The remaining four positions were officially nonpartisan.
• The governor of Arizona was Republican Doug Ducey. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

• Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seats
• Nine U.S. House seats
• Governor
• Seven lower state executive positions
• 30 state Senate seats
• 60 state House seats

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
	Arizona	U.S.
Total population:	6,817,565	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	113,594	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	78.4%	73.6%
Black/African American:	4.2%	12.6%
Asian:	3%	5.1%
Native American:	4.4%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.2%	0.2%
Two or more:	3.2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	30.3%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	86%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.5%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$50,255	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	21.2%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	48.7%	Hillary Clinton	45.1%	3.6%
2012	Mitt Romney	53.7%	Barack Obama	44.6%	9.1%
2008	John McCain	53.6%	Barack Obama	45.1%	7.5%
2004	George W. Bush	54.9%	John Kerry	44.4%	10.5%
2000	George W. Bush	51.0%	Al Gore	44.5%	5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	John McCain	53.7%	Ann Kirkpatrick	40.7%	13.0%
2012	Jeff Flake	49.2%	Richard Carmona	46.2%	3.0%
2010	John McCain	58.9%	Rodney Glassman	34.7%	24.2%
2006	Jon Kyl	53.3%	Jim Pederson	43.5%	9.8%
2004	John McCain	76.7%	Stuart Starky	20.6%	56.1%
2002	Jon Kyl	79.3%	William Toel (I)	7.8%	7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Doug Ducey	53.4%	Fred DuVal	41.6%	11.8%
2010	Jan Brewer	54.3%	Terry Goddard	42.4%	12.1%
2006	Janet Napolitano	62.6%	Len Munsil	35.4%	27.2%
2002	Janet Napolitano	46.2%	Matt Salmon	45.2%	1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2014	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2012	4	44.4%	5	55.5%	D+1
2010	5	62.5%	3	37.5%	R+2
2008	3	37.5%	5	62.5%	D+2
2006	4	50%	4	50%	Even
2004	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2002	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2000	5	83.3%	1	16.6%	R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D
Senate	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• Jeff Flake
• United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Footnotes

[show]

Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Ruben Gallego (D)

Mark Kelly (D)

Representatives

District 1

David Schweikert (R)

District 2

Eli Crane (R)

District 3

Yassamin Ansari (D)

District 4

Greg Stanton (D)

District 5

Andy Biggs (R)

District 6

Juan Ciscomani (R)

District 7

Raúl Grijalva (D)

District 8

Abraham Hamadeh (R)

District 9

Paul Gosar (R)

Republican Party (6)

Democratic Party (5)