Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016

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Oregon Gubernatorial Special Election

Primary Date: May 17, 2016

General Election Date: November 8, 2016

November Election Winner: Kate Brown (D)

Incumbent Prior to Election: Kate Brown (D)

State Executive Elections Top Ballot Governor • Attorney General Secretary of State • Treasurer Down Ballot None

Oregon held a special election for governor on November 8, 2016, to fill the remainder of former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber's term, which expired in January 2019. Incumbent Kate Brown (D), who—as secretary of state—automatically succeeded Kitzhaber upon his resignation, won election to the remainder of Kitzhaber's term.

HIGHLIGHTS

The special election was prompted by the February 2015 resignation of former Governor John Kitzhaber (D).

Incumbent Governor Kate Brown (D), who succeeded Kitzhaber, defeated four challengers in the May 17 primary election for the Democratic nomination, while physician Bud Pierce (R) won the Republican nomination.

Going into the election, Democrats had held the office since 1987.

Brown won the general election on November 8, 2016.

Overview

Incumbent Governor and former Secretary of State Kate Brown (D) succeeded to the governorship in February 2015 after Governor John Kitzhaber (D) resigned following an ethics scandal. Brown sought election to the remainder of Kitzhaber's term and defeated four challengers in the Democratic primary election by a comfortable margin.

Physician Bud Pierce defeated three candidates to win the Republican nomination to challenge Brown in November. Brown held an advantage over Pierce in three polls conducted in October 2016. Her margin in the polls ranged from 4 to 14 percentage points.

Going into the election, Democrats had held the office since 1987 and had trifecta control of the state. This race was rated Likely Democrat—and, as expected, Brown won the general election on November 8, 2016.

Candidates and results

Candidates

Kate Brown (D/Working Families)
Governor of Oregon since 2015

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Bud Pierce (R)
Oncologist

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Cliff Thomason (IPO)
Realtor, president of Orhempco, Inc.

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Aaron Auer (Constitution Party)
Preacher

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James Foster (Lib.)
Software executive, attorney

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Click [show] to view candidates who were defeated in the primary elections or who declined to run in this race

Defeated Prominent candidates Julian Bell (D) I.C.U. physician. Steve Johnson (D) Home care worker, realtor Allen Alley (R) Executive chairman, Indice Semiconductor Bruce Cuff (R) Real estate broker Bob Niemeyer (R) Business owner, engineer Other candidates Chet Chance (D) - Truck driver Kevin M. Forsythe (D) - Team associate, Walmart Bob Forthan (R) - Unknown Dave Stauffer (D) - Environmental engineer, attorney Patrick Barney (IPO) - Certified nursing assistant Declined Brad Avakian (D) - Oregon Commissioner of Labor and Industries Betsy Johnson (D) - State Senator Tina Kotek (D) - State House Speaker Ted Wheeler (D) - Oregon Treasurer Shane Bemis (R) - Gresham Mayor, former city commissioner Knute Buehler (R) - State Rep. and 2012 GOP secretary of state nominee Sid Leiken (R) - Lane County Commissioner, former Mayor of Springfield Sherrie Sprenger (R) - State House Minority Whip Monica Wehby (R) - Neurosurgeon and former 2014 U.S. Senate candidate

Results

General election

Incumbent Kate Brown defeated Bud Pierce, Cliff Thomason, James Foster, and Aaron Auer in the Oregon governor election.

Oregon Governor, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic/Working Families	Kate Brown Incumbent	50.70%	985,027
	Republican	Bud Pierce	43.53%	845,609
	Independent Party of Oregon	Cliff Thomason	2.44%	47,481
	Libertarian	James Foster	2.33%	45,191
	Constitution Party	Aaron Auer	1.00%	19,400
Total Votes				1,942,708
Source: Oregon Secretary of State

Primary elections

Democratic primary election

 

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for governor.

Democratic primary for governor, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Kate Brown Incumbent	83.96%	403,730
Julian Bell	7.04%	33,872
Dave Stauffer	2.83%	13,624
Steve Johnson	2.36%	11,366
Kevin M. Forsythe	1.79%	8,599
Chet Chance	0.95%	4,584
Write-in votes	1.06%	5,077
Total Votes		480,852
Source: http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/1314035914.html

Republican primary election

 

Bud Pierce defeated Allen Alley, Bruce Cuff, Bob Niemeyer and Bob Forthan defeated in the Republican primary for governor.

Republican primary for governor, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Bud Pierce	47.03%	143,387
Allen Alley	29.25%	89,180
Bruce Cuff	11.55%	35,201
Bob Niemeyer	10.15%	30,933
Bob Forthan	1.23%	3,756
Write-in votes	0.8%	2,435
Total Votes		304,892
Source: http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/1314035914.html

Independent Party of Oregon primary election

Cliff Thomason defeated Patrick Barney in the Independent Party of Oregon primary for governor.

Independent Party of Oregon primary for governor, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Cliff Thomason	35.92%	8,380
Patrick Barney	25.25%	5,892
Write-in votes	38.83%	9,060
Total Votes		23,332
Source: http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2016P/1314035914.html

About the primary

A primary election is an election in which voters select the candidate they believe should represent a political party in a general election. Primaries usually take place several months before a general election. Oregon generally utilizes a closed primary process. The selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members for presidential and legislative elections. However, the Oregon Republican Party voted to open the Republican primary to unaffiliated voters for the offices of secretary of state, attorney general, and treasurer.

Oregon's primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.

Party control

Oregon Party Control: 1992-2024
Sixteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	S	S	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Oregon is traditionally a Democratic state, and going into the 2016 elections, Democrats had trifecta control of the state government. The last Republican to occupy the governor's office was Victor Atiyeh, who served two terms from 1979 to 1987. Other statewide elected offices—including state treasurer, secretary of state, attorney general, and the two U.S. Senate seats—had all been occupied by Democrats for the previous 15 years. The last Republican to win a statewide election was former United States Senator Gordon Smith, who lost his 2008 re-election bid to Jeff Merkley after serving two terms in office.

Despite Democrats' dominance of the governor's seat in Oregon over the last three decades, gubernatorial elections in recent years have been relatively close races. John Kitzhaber won election in 2010 by a mere 1.5 percent margin of victory and again in 2014 by just 5.8 percent. Given Democrats' dominance of Oregon's top offices and Brown's incumbency advantage, Republicans had little chance of winning the governorship in 2016.

Influence of voter turnout

Oregon's special election for governor coincided with a highly competitive presidential election, which drives up voter turnout. This increased turnout during presidential election years can significantly affect the partisan balance of state governments. In particular, offices elected during mid-presidential term elections disadvantage the party of the current president, a trend that has remained relatively constant since the Civil War. Presidential election years see aggregate gains for the party of the winning presidential candidate.

Oregon's governor is usually elected during mid-presidential term elections, with the last regularly scheduled election held in 2014. The same year, voter turnout was the lowest recorded since 1942. Indeed, voter turnout has dropped during mid-presidential term elections since the 1840s. This means the governor of Oregon is usually elected during the years that see the lowest turnout. This special election was particularly notable in that a larger proportion of Oregonians than usual popularly elected the governor.

Race tracking

Race Ratings: Governor of Oregon (special election)
Race Tracker	Race Ratings
The Cook Political Report	Likely Democrat	Likely Democrat
Governing	Likely Democrat	Likely Democrat
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely Democrat	Safe Democrat
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Safe Democrat	Safe Democrat
Daily Kos Race Ratings	Likely Democrat	Likely Democrat
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Polls

General election: Kate Brown (D) vs. Bud Pierce (R)
Poll	Kate Brown	Bud Pierce	Undecided	Margin of error	Sample size
The Oregonian (October 4-14, 2016)	48%	34%	0%	+/-4	608
Oregon Public Broadcasting (October 6-13, 2016)	46%	33%	0%	+/-4	600
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA (October 10-12, 2016)	46%	42%	0%	+/-3.9	654
DHM Research (September 1-6, 2016)	43%	35%	0%	+/-4.3	517
icitizen (June 23-17, 2016)	42%	35%	23%	+/-4	603
AVERAGES	45%	35.8%	4.6%	+/-4.04	596.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

Click [show] to see pre-primary hypothetical match-up polling results.

Oregon Governor: Brown vs. Alley Poll Kate Brown* (D) Allen Alley (R) Undecided Margin of error Sample size Moore Information (April 20, 2015) 47% 32% 21% +/-4.0 500 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]. Oregon Governor: Brown vs. Bemis Poll Kate Brown* (D) Shane Bemis (R) Undecided Margin of error Sample size Moore Information (April 20, 2015) 45% 26% 28% +/-4.0 500 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]. Oregon Governor: Brown vs. Pierce Poll Kate Brown* (D) Bud Pierce (R) Undecided Margin of error Sample size Moore Information (April 20, 2015) 45% 27% 28% +/-4.0 500 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]. Oregon Governor: Brown vs. Richardson Poll Kate Brown* (D) Dennis Richardson (R) Undecided Margin of error Sample size Moore Information (April 20, 2015) 48% 41% 12% +/-4.0 500 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]. Note: An asterisk (*) denotes incumbent status.

Campaign media

Note: If a candidate is not listed below, Ballotpedia staff were unable to locate any campaign media for that candidate. Do you know of any? Tell us!

Democrats

Julian Bell (D)
Kate Brown (D)
Chet Chance (D)
Kevin M. Forsythe (D)
Steve Johnson (D)
Dave Stauffer (D)

Republicans

Allen Alley (R)
Bruce Cuff (R)
Bob Niemeyer (R)
Bud Pierce (R)

Know of a candidate's campaign site not listed? Tell us!

Campaign advertisements

Allen Alley, "Too much"

Recent news

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Oregon gubernatorial special election 2016. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 - Google News

Past elections

2014

Governor of Oregon, 2014
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber Incumbent	49.9%	733,230
	Republican	Dennis Richardson	44.1%	648,542
	Pacific Green	Jason Levin	2%	29,561
	Libertarian	Paul Grad	1.5%	21,903
	Constitution	Aaron Auer	1.1%	15,929
	Progressive	Chris Henry	0.9%	13,898
	Nonpartisan	Write-in votes	0.5%	6,654
Total Votes				1,469,717
Election results via Oregon Secretary of State

To view the full electoral history for Governor of Oregon, click [show] to expand the full section.

2010 On November 2, 2010, John Kitzhaber won election to the office of Governor of Oregon. He defeated Chris Dudley, Wes Wagner and Greg Kord in the general election. Governor of Oregon, 2010 Party Candidate Vote % Votes      Democratic John Kitzhaber 49.3% 716,525      Republican Chris Dudley 47.8% 694,287      Constitution Greg Kord 1.4% 20,475      Libertarian Wes Wagner 1.3% 19,048      Miscellaneous - 0.2% 3,213 Total Votes 1,453,548 Election results via Oregon Secretary of State. 2006 On November 7, 2006, Ted Kulongoski won re-election to the office of Governor of Oregon. He defeated Ron Saxton, Mary Starrett, Joe Keating and Richard Morley in the general election. Governor of Oregon, 2006 Party Candidate Vote % Votes      Democratic Ted Kulongoski Incumbent 50.7% 699,786      Republican Ron Saxton 42.8% 589,748      Constitution Mary Starrett 3.6% 50,229      Pacific Green Joe Keating 1.5% 20,030      Libertarian Richard Morley 1.2% 16,798      Miscellaneous - 0.2% 2,884 Total Votes 1,379,475 Election results via Oregon Secretary Of State. 2002 On November 5, 2002, Ted Kulongoski won election to the office of Governor of Oregon. He defeated Kevin L. Mannix and Tom Cox in the general election. Governor of Oregon, 2002 Party Candidate Vote % Votes      Democratic Ted Kulongoski 49.1% 618,004      Republican Kevin L. Mannix 46.3% 581,785      Libertarian Tom Cox 4.6% 57,760 Total Votes 1,257,549 Election results via Oregon Secretary of State.

Race background

Key election dates

Filing deadline (major parties): March 8, 2016

Primary date: May 17, 2016

Filing deadline (third parties and independents): August 30, 2016

General election date: November 8, 2016

Recount request deadline: December 13, 2016

Inauguration: TBD

Candidate field

Incumbent Governor Brown ran to serve out the rest of Kitzhaber's 2015-2019 term. In late 2015, reports noted that she had begun hiring Democratic consultants and collecting campaign funds. After only a few months in office, a poll released in June 2015 found that Brown had a good approval rating in Oregon, with 55 percent of Oregonians approving of her job performance and only 24 percent disapproving; 21 percent said that they were unsure.

Additionally, Brown entered the race with an incumbency advantage. A recent study by The Washington Post found that governors who initially enter office to complete the term of a governor who left office early, like Brown did in 2015, often run for their own terms as governor and that when they do, they tend to win. Incumbent governors generally leave office early for one of four reasons: appointment to a new position (usually at the federal level), election to a new position (such as United States Senator), resignation due to scandal, or death. The report found that 18 governors took office through succession from 2000 to 2014, and 12 of these governors sought election in order to remain in the governor's office. Of these 12, nine won their election bids, including both of the governors who were replacing a predecessor that had resigned due to scandal. Finally, Brown has previously won two statewide elections as Oregon Secretary of State in 2008 and 2012, by comfortable margins.

Other potential candidates included candidates who were serving as elected officials, including Gresham Mayor Shane Bemis, Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken, and State House Minority Whip Sherrie Sprenger. All three candidates declined to run.

During the early months of the campaign, there was considerable speculation that incumbent Kate Brown could face a primary challenge from within her own party by popular and prominent public officials. Among the Democrats who considered running for governor were Oregon Commissioner of Labor and Industries Brad Avakian and Oregon Treasurer Ted Wheeler, who was initially considering a gubernatorial run in 2018 when Kitzhaber was originally expected to retire. Like Brown, both Avakian and Wheeler had won statewide election multiple times. Additionally, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Tina Kotek (D) was also considered a possible contender in 2016. Instead, Avakian decided to run for Oregon Secretary of State, Wheeler decided to run for Mayor of Portland, Oregon, and Kotek decided to run for re-election to the Oregon House of Representatives.

Resignation of Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber

Term in office: 1995-2003, 2011-2015

Next in succession: Secretary of State Kate Brown (D)

Related pages Resignation overview February 11 story February 13 story Impeachment amendment Recall effort Cylvia Hayes Kate Brown Ellen Rosenblum Governor of Oregon Governor Vacancy process

Kitzhaber's resignation

John Kitzhaber (D) served his first stint as governor from 1995-2003 and won back the office in 2010. On November 4, 2014, Kitzhaber was re-elected to an unprecedented fourth term. Three months later, Kitzhaber became embroiled in an ethics controversy and faced a possible recall election. He stepped down from the state's chief executive office on February 18, 2015.

Kitzhaber's departure activated the line of succession, which in Oregon begins with the secretary of state as there is no lieutenant governor. With less than one year left of her second term, Kate Brown (D) vacated the secretary of state's seat in order to assume the governorship on February 18, 2015.

Resignations

There have been five governors in the state's history who resigned prior to the conclusion of their terms. The most recent case of John Kitzhaber, who resigned due to an ethics and criminal investigation concerning conflicts of interest related to his fiancee and advisor Cylvia Hayes, was the first gubernatorial resignation in Oregon since 1952. See the following table for details about these governors and their reasons for leaving office:

Gubernatorial resignations in Oregon history
Governor	Party	End of last term	Resignation year	Reason
Lafayette Grover	Democratic	1879	1877	Appointment to U.S. Senate
George Earle Chamberlain	Democratic	1911	1909	Appointment to U.S. Senate
Frank Benson	Republican	1911	1910	Illness
James Douglas McKay	Republican	1953	1952	Federal appointment
John Kitzhaber	Democratic	2019	2015	Ethics and criminal investigation

About the office

Governor

Main article: Governor of Oregon

The Oregon governor is an elected constitutional officer, the head of the executive branch, and the representative of the highest state office in Oregon. The governor is popularly elected every four years by a plurality and is limited to two four-year terms out of a 12-year span. The officeholder is Kate Brown (D). Brown was sworn into office on February 18, 2015, succeeding John Kitzhaber (D), who resigned from office following an ethics scandal. Brown previously served as the secretary of state from 2009 to 2015.

See also: Oregon State Legislature, Oregon House of Representatives, Oregon State Senate

Incumbent

Incumbent Governor Kate Brown (D) succeeded to the governorship in February 2015 following the resignation of previous Governor John Kitzhaber (D). Kitzhaber stepped down following ethics concerns surrounding his administration during his re-election campaign in 2014. Brown had served as secretary of state since 2009 and, as Oregon has no lieutenant governor, became governor according to Oregon's laws of succession.

Brown was first elected secretary of state in 2008, defeating Republican Rick Dancer by a margin of 5 percent. She won re-election against challenger Knute Buehler (R) in 2012 by a margin of 8 percent.

Prior to her tenure as secretary of state, Brown served in the Oregon State Senate from 1996-2008, acting as majority leader from 2004-2008. She also served in the House of Representatives from 1991-1996. Brown previously worked as an advocate for the Women's Rights Coalition and as a private practice attorney.

State profile

Demographic data for Oregon
	Oregon	U.S.
Total population:	4,024,634	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	95,988	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	85.1%	73.6%
Black/African American:	1.8%	12.6%
Asian:	4%	5.1%
Native American:	1.2%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.4%	0.2%
Two or more:	4.1%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	12.3%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	89.8%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	30.8%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$51,243	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	18.4%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Oregon. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

Presidential voting pattern

See also: Presidential voting trends in Oregon

Oregon voted for the Democratic candidate in all six presidential elections between 2000 and 2020.

Pivot Counties (2016)

Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, two are located in Oregon, accounting for 0.97 percent of the total pivot counties.

Pivot Counties (2020)

In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Oregon had two Retained Pivot Counties, 1.10 of all Retained Pivot Counties.

More Oregon coverage on Ballotpedia

• Elections in Oregon
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• Public policy in Oregon
• Endorsers in Oregon
• Oregon fact checks
• More...

See also

Oregon government:

• Oregon state executive offices
• Oregon State Legislature
• Oregon courts

Previous elections:

• State executive official elections, 2015
• State executive official elections, 2014

Ballotpedia exclusives:

• State executives compensation
• State of the state addresses
• Who runs the states?

External links

• Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division