U.S. House primaries, 2016

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2016 U.S. House Elections

Election Date November 8, 2016

U.S. Senate Elections by State

Battlegrounds • Primaries

Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maryland • Missouri • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • South Dakota • Utah • Vermont • Washington • Wisconsin

U.S. House Elections by State

Battlegrounds • Primaries

Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections were held for all 435 U.S. House seats in 2016. Heading into the election, Republicans held a majority of 247 seats to Democrats' 187, while one seat was vacant pending a special election. In the vast majority of those races, the party of the winning candidate was all but decided before anyone even filed to run. Ballotpedia recorded a number of interesting U.S. House primary races to watch in 2016 to pair with Ballotpedia's 2016 general election battleground coverage.

Due to the lack of competition in the House, it was unlikely that Democrats would have been able to retake the House in the 2016 election cycle. However, there were still several notable Democratic and Republican primaries in 2016, and this page served to highlight those elections. This page does not have information on competitive general election races. For coverage of high-profile general election races, see Ballotpedia's U.S. House battlegrounds coverage.

Primary competitiveness

HIGHLIGHTS

In 2016, 44.53% of major-party primaries were contested, an increase from 39.5% in 2014.

Republican primaries were more competitive than Democratic primaries. Republicans saw a rate of competition of 46.17%, while only 36.89% of Democratic primaries were contested.

Five incumbents were defeated in 2016. This amounts to a very slim 1.3% of all incumbents who sought re-election.

Primary competitiveness measures the percentage of primary elections in which voters actually have a choice to make. In most cases, this means those primaries in which there are two or more candidates running. However, in states that use a top-two primary system, a primary must have at least three candidates running to be considered contested. Candidates who have declared write-in campaigns are not enough for a race to be considered contested.

In 2016, 44.53 percent of all major party primaries were contested. If you exclude California and Washington, the two states that use a top-two primary system, 41.53 percent of primaries were contested. As in the past several election cycles, Republican candidates faced significantly more primary opposition than Democratic ones. In Republican contests, 46.17 percent of primaries were contested, while 36.89 percent of Democratic primaries were contested.

Incumbents sought re-election in 90 percent of U.S. House districts. Party made no real difference in the percentage of incumbents who sought re-election. However, as was the case in overall primary races, Republican incumbents were more likely to face a primary challenger than Democratic incumbents. In Republican primary races featuring an incumbent, 52.25 percent of races were contested, while 44.71 percent of Democratic incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger. Only five incumbents were defeated in primary elections in 2016. This amounts to 1.3 percent, which is average over the past decade.

The map below displays the percentage of contested primary races in each state. • Filing deadline data is being used for states that haven't yet held their primaries. Slight inaccuracies may arise if filed candidates withdraw prior to the primary. • Louisiana doesn't hold a primary. All candidates compete in the general election and a runoff is held if no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote.

Full data regarding general competitiveness and competition in races involving an incumbent can be found in the tables below.

Contested Primaries during the 2016 Congressional Elections
State	Primary date	# of seats	Democratic contested primaries	Republican contested primaries	Contested Major Party primaries	% contested primaries
Alabama	3/1	7	0	4	4	28.57%
Arkansas	3/1	4	0	1	1	12.50%
Texas	3/1	36	13	20	33	45.83%
Mississippi	3/8	4	1	2	3	37.50%
Illinois	3/15	18	8	6	14	38.89%
Ohio	3/15	16	5	5	10	31.25%
Maryland	4/26	8	7	8	15	93.75%
Pennsylvania	4/26	18	4	5	9	25.00%
Indiana	5/3	9	8	8	16	88.89%
Nebraska	5/10	3	0	1	1	16.67%
West Virginia	5/10	3	1	1	2	33.33%
Idaho	5/17	2	1	2	3	75.00%
Kentucky	5/17	6	1	4	5	41.67%
Oregon	5/17	5	3	4	7	70.00%
Georgia	5/24	14	2	7	9	32.14%
California	6/7	53	40	40	40	75.47%
Iowa	6/7	4	2	2	4	50.00%
Montana	6/7	1	0	0	0	0.00%
New Jersey	6/7	12	6	4	10	41.67%
New Mexico	6/7	3	0	1	1	16.67%
South Dakota	6/7	1	0	0	0	0.00%
North Carolina	6/7	13	6	10	16	61.54%
Maine	6/14	2	0	1	1	25.00%
Nevada	6/14	4	4	3	7	87.50%
North Dakota	6/14	1	0	0	0	0.00%
South Carolina	6/14	7	1	2	3	21.43%
Virginia	6/14	11	2	5	7	31.82%
Colorado	6/28	7	2	2	4	28.57%
New York	6/28	27	10	3	13	24.07%
Oklahoma	6/28	5	3	5	8	80.00%
Utah	6/28	4	0	1	1	12.50%
Kansas	8/2/2016	4	2	2	4	50.00%
Michigan	8/2/2016	14	3	3	6	21.43%
Missouri	8/2/2016	8	5	8	13	81.25%
Washington	8/2/2016	10			10	100.00%
Tennessee	8/4/2016	9	4	6	10	55.56%
Connecticut	8/9/2016	5	0	0	0	0.00%
Minnesota	8/9/2016	8	3	5	8	50.00%
Vermont	8/9/2016	1	0	0	0	0.00%
Wisconsin	8/9/2016	8	5	3	8	50.00%
Hawaii	8/13/2016	2	2	1	3	75.00%
Alaska	8/16/2016	1	1	1	2	100.00%
Wyoming	8/16/2016	1	1	1	2	100.00%
Arizona	8/30/2016	9	5	6	11	61.11%
Florida	8/30/2016	27	11	13	24	44.44%
Massachusetts	9/8/2016	9	0	1	1	5.56%
Delaware	9/13/2016	1	1	0	1	50.00%
New Hampshire	9/13/2016	2	0	2	2	50.00%
Rhode Island	9/13/2016	2	2	0	2	50.00%

Contested Primaries involving incumbents during the 2016 Congressional Elections
State	Primary date	# of seats	Incs running	Democratic incs facing primary	Republican incs facing primary	% incs with primary
Alabama	3/1	7	7	0	4	57.14%
Arkansas	3/1	4	4	0	1	25.00%
Texas	3/1	36	34	5	14	55.88%
Mississippi	3/8	4	4	0	2	50.00%
Illinois	3/15	18	17	4	3	41.18%
Ohio	3/15	16	15	1	3	26.67%
Maryland	4/26	8	6	4	1	83.33%
Pennsylvania	4/26	18	16	2	2	25.00%
Indiana	5/3	9	7	2	5	100.00%
Nebraska	5/10	3	3	0	0	0.00%
West Virginia	5/10	3	3	0	1	33.33%
Idaho	5/17	2	2	0	2	100.00%
Kentucky	5/17	6	5	0	2	40.00%
Oregon	5/17	5	5	3	1	80.00%
Georgia	5/24	14	13	0	5	38.46%
California	6/7	53	49	23	13	73.47%
Iowa	6/7	4	4	0	2	50.00%
Montana	6/7	1	1	0	0	0.00%
New Jersey	6/7	12	12	3	4	58.33%
New Mexico	6/7	3	3	0	0	0.00%
South Dakota	6/7	1	1	0	0	0.00%
North Carolina	6/7	13	13	1	8	69.23%
Maine	6/14	2	2	0	0	0.00%
Nevada	6/14	4	3	1	1	66.67%
North Dakota	6/14	1	1	0	0	0.00%
South Carolina	6/14	7	7	0	2	28.57%
Virginia	6/14	11	8	0	1	12.50%
Colorado	6/28	7	7	1	2	42.86%
New York	6/28	27	23	5	0	21.74%
Oklahoma	6/28	5	5	0	5	100.00%
Utah	6/28	4	4	0	1	25.00%
Kansas	8/2/2016	4	4	0	2	50.00%
Michigan	8/2/2016	14	12	2	1	25.00%
Missouri	8/2/2016	8	8	2	6	100.00%
Washington	8/2/2016	10	9	5	4	100.00%
Tennessee	8/4/2016	9	7	1	4	71.43%
Connecticut	8/9/2016	5	5	0	0	0.00%
Minnesota	8/9/2016	8	7	2	1	42.86%
Vermont	8/9/2016	1	1	0	0	0.00%
Wisconsin	8/9/2016	8	7	2	2	57.14%
Hawaii	8/13/2016	2	1	1	0	100.00%
Alaska	8/16/2016	1	1	0	1	100.00%
Wyoming	8/16/2016	1	0	0	0	0.00%
Arizona	8/30/2016	9	7	1	3	57.14%
Florida	8/30/2016	27	20	3	6	45.00%
Massachusetts	9/8/2016	9	9	0	0	0.00%
Delaware	9/13/2016	1	0	0	0	0.00%
New Hampshire	9/13/2016	2	2	0	1	50.00%
Rhode Island	9/13/2016	2	2	2	0	100.00%

Defeated incumbents

Five incumbent members of Congress lost their primary elections in 2016—a slightly higher number than the past decade's average. This slight increase can be explained by the court-ordered redistricting that took place in several states. Redistricting played a role in three of the five incumbent losses, one of which was an incumbent-versus-incumbent battle.

Redistricting also explains why so many incumbents were defeated in the primaries in 2012, the first election after maps were redrawn following the 2010 census. In 2012, eight incumbent members of Congress lost to another incumbent in the primary as a direct result of redistricting.

Chaka Fattah

Chaka Fattah

Chaka Fattah was the first incumbent to lose a primary in 2016. He was defeated by Dwight Evans in the Democratic primary on April 26, 2016. Heading into the election, Fattah—who had represented Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District from 1994 until his resignation on June 23, 2016—had been made vulnerable due to an indictment in 2015 on charges including bribery, money laundering, and bank and mail fraud. Fattah was ultimately convicted of all charges in June, and he resigned shortly thereafter.

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Dwight Evans	42.3%	75,515
Chaka Fattah Incumbent	34.4%	61,518
Brian Gordon	13.2%	23,655
Dan Muroff	10.1%	18,016
Total Votes		178,704
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

Renee Ellmers

Renee Ellmers

Renee Ellmers was the second incumbent to fall in 2016. Ellmers was defeated by fellow GOP incumbent George Holding—who represented the 13th Congressional District heading into the election—in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary. Redistricting altered both districts significantly, causing Holding to seek election in the 2nd District. Heading into the primary, Holding was a clear favorite. He had the backing of a number of Republican organizations, including Americans for Prosperity, FreedomWorks, and the Club for Growth. However, Ellmers did secure a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Holding easily defeated Ellmers, receiving over twice as many votes.

U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
George Holding Incumbent	53.4%	17,084
Renee Ellmers Incumbent	23.6%	7,552
Greg Brannon	23%	7,359
Total Votes		31,995
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

Randy Forbes

Randy Forbes

Randy Forbes was defeated in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on June 14, 2016, by state Delegate Scott Taylor. Forbes, who represented the 4th Congressional District heading into the election, chose to seek election in District 2 after redistricting left his seat as a likely Democratic pickup in the general election. Forbes chose the 2nd District because it was open following incumbent Scott Rigell's decision not to seek re-election. The switch left Forbes vulnerable; since the region was entirely outside of his prior constituency, he was portrayed as an outsider. As a result, Taylor easily defeated Forbes by a margin of nearly 12 percent.

U.S. House, Virginia District 2 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Scott Taylor	52.6%	21,406
Randy Forbes Incumbent	40.6%	16,552
Pat Cardwell	6.8%	2,773
Total Votes		40,731
Source: Virginia Department of Elections

Tim Huelskamp

Tim Huelskamp

Tim Huelskamp was defeated in Kansas' 1st Congressional District Republican primary on August 2, 2016, by physician Roger Marshall. Huelskamp lost by a significant margin of 13 percent. Outside groups took an interest in the primary battle between Huelskamp and Marshall. In a reversal of the usual narrative, Huelskamp, the incumbent, was supported by the more conservative, anti-establishment wing of the Republican Party, while the challenger, Marshall, received the backing of groups normally associated with establishment Republicans. Huelskamp was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth, while Marshall received endorsements from the Kansas Farm Bureau and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

U.S. House, Kansas District 1 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Roger Marshall	56.6%	59,889
Tim Huelskamp Incumbent	43.4%	45,997
Total Votes		105,886
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

Corrine Brown

Corrine Brown

Corrine Brown was defeated in Florida's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 30, 2016, by former state Sen. Al Lawson. Brown was defeated by a margin of roughly 8 percent. Multiple factors made Brown unusually vulnerable in 2016: she was indicted earlier in the year on "charges of mail and wire fraud, conspiracy, obstruction and filing of false tax returns," and she also only represented roughly 38 percent of the newly drawn 5th District.

U.S. House, Florida District 5 Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Al Lawson	47.6%	39,306
Corrine Brown Incumbent	39%	32,235
L.J. Holloway	13.4%	11,048
Total Votes		82,589
Source: Florida Division of Elections

Races to watch

This section served to highlight races that were deemed "races to watch" heading into their primary elections. This designation means that the races were thought to be at least somewhat competitive. Races in which an incumbent was defeated are not listed in this section, as they were already detailed above.

Criteria

It is typically difficult to predict how competitive primaries will be. However, Ballotpedia put together a number of factors that were used to give insight into the most interesting 2016 primary elections. While none of these factors by themselves indicated a close race, when combined, they often led to more intense competition. Factors used to determine the competitiveness of primaries included:

• Number of candidates
• Incumbent's years in office
• 2014 margin of victory
• Whether or not the seat is open (retiring or resigning incumbent)
• Whether or not the district's general election is considered a 2016 battleground
• Notable endorsements
• Significant fundraising

Race summaries

Note: The summaries below are listed according to most recent primary date.

District 11

See also: Florida's 11th Congressional District election, 2016

The Republican primary race between District 10 incumbent Daniel Webster and Justin Grabelle, the former chief of staff to the retiring incumbent Rich Nugent, was a race to watch in 2016. Florida's 11th District was another example of a race in which redistricting played a major role in making an incumbent vulnerable. Due to the redrawing of the map, Webster's old district became a safe Democratic district causing him to run in the open 11th. Webster only represented 18 percent of the 11th District heading into the election. Webster ultimately defeated Grabelle in the primary on August 30, 2016.

District 23

See also: Florida's 23rd Congressional District election, 2016

The Democratic primary race between incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Tim Canova was considered a race to watch in 2016. Wasserman Schultz defeated Canova in the primary on August 30, 2016. Heading into the primary, Wasserman Schultz had the endorsement of President Barack Obama and a lead in overall fundraising, while Canova had the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders. Sanders established Our Revolution, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization that helped with fundraising for Canova. The race received national attention in July 2016, when DNC emails were made public and suggested that the DNC was favoring Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

District 1

See also: Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

The Republican primary race between incumbent Paul Ryan and Paul Nehlen was considered a race to watch in 2016. Heading into the primary, Ryan had the support of the Republican establishment and a massive lead in fundraising and polling. However, Paul Ryan's initial refusal to endorse Donald Trump in May and Trump's initial refusal to endorse Ryan on August 2, 2016, caused Nehlen's effort to unseat the Speaker to gain national media attention. Trump ultimately did endorse Paul Ryan on August 5, 2016, just three days after his initial refusal to back him. As expected, Ryan easily won the primary by a margin of over 60 percent.

District 24

See also: California's 24th Congressional District election, 2016

California's District 24 primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat was left open following incumbent Lois Capps' decision to retire. Nine candidates filed to run to replace Capps, including four Democrats, three Republicans, and two third-party candidates. In California, all candidates run in the same primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election. California's 24th District is considered safely Democratic in the general election. However, due to California's top-two primary system and the fact that more Democrats were on the ballot, there was some concern that the Democratic vote could be split enough to allow two Republican candidates to make it onto the general election ballot, resulting in a win for the Republican Party. Ultimately this did not happen, and Salud Carbajal (D) took the top spot in the primary, followed by Justin Fareed (R). National Democrats spent a lot of money in the district to promote Carbajal and avoid a two Republican general election.

District 13

See also: North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2016

North Carolina's District 13 Republican primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. Due to redistricting in North Carolina and the fact that incumbent George Holding is seeking re-election in the 2nd District, the seat is open. Ted Budd defeated 16 other Republican candidates to win the primary with only 20 percent of the vote. Normally a runoff would be required as no candidate received a majority of the vote. However, due to redistricting the primary had already been pushed back several months, leaving no time for a runoff election. The contest is rated safely Republican in the general election, meaning that Budd is very likely to win election in November.

District 3

See also: Indiana's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Indiana's District 3 Republican primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat was left open following incumbent Marlin Stutzman's unsuccessful run for U.S. Senate. Six Republican candidates competed to fill the seat: Jim Banks, Kip Tom, Mark Willard Baringer, Liz Brown, Pam Galloway and Kevin Howell. Banks was the winner of the Republican primary, defeating Kip Tom by roughly three percent of the vote. Heading into the primary, Banks and Tom were the front-runners in the race. The seat is rated safely Republican, meaning that Banks is very likely to be the district's next representative.

District 9

See also: Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2016

Indiana's District 9 Republican primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat was left open following incumbent Todd Young's run for U.S. Senate. Five Republican candidates competed to fill the seat: Robert Hall, Trey Hollingsworth, Erin Houchin, Brent Waltz, and Greg Zoeller. Hollingsworth defeated the other four to win the Republican nomination on May 3, 2016. Heading into the primary, Hollingsworth was the front-runner in the race, as he had a large fundraising advantage over the rest of the field. The seat is rated safely Republican in the general election.

District 4

See also: Maryland's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Maryland's District 4 Democratic primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat was left open following incumbent Donna Edwards' run for U.S. Senate. Six Democratic candidates competed to fill the seat: Anthony Brown, Warren Christopher, Matthew Fogg, Glenn Ivey, Joseline Pena-Melnyk and Terence Strait. Brown defeated the other five candidates to win the primary on April 26, 2016. The seat is safely Democratic, meaning that Brown is very likely to be the district's next representative.

District 8

See also: Maryland's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Maryland's District 8 Democratic primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat was left open following incumbent Chris Van Hollen's run for U.S. Senate. This was the most expensive primary race in the country, with contributions from all candidates totaling over $16 million as of the FEC's Pre-Primary reports. The bulk of this money came from candidate David Trone who had contributed a record-breaking roughly $10 million to his campaign. Kathleen Matthews and Jamie Raskin also raised very large sums, totaling $2,576,534 and $1,867,546, respectively. Raskin ultimately overcame Trone's massive financial advantage to win the primary.

District 8

See also: Ohio's 8th Congressional District election, 2016

See also: Ohio's 8th Congressional District special election, 2016

Ohio's' District 8 Republican primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. Following the early resignation of incumbent John Boehner (R) in October 2015, several candidates filed to run in the 2016 general and special election primaries on March 15, 2016. Fifteen Republican candidates competed in the 2016 Republican primaries: Matthew Ashworth, Bill Beagle, Warren Davidson, Timothy Derickson, Scott George, Eric Haemmerle, Terri King, Edward Meer, Joseph Matvey, John Robbins, Michael Smith, Jim Spurlino, Kevin F. White, J.D. Winteregg and George Wooley.

The winner of both the general and special election primaries, Warren Davidson, was backed by Club for Growth PAC and had been endorsed by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio, District 4). Beagle was endorsed by Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio, District 10), while Derickson was endorsed by Butler County Auditor Roger Reynolds. Both the general and special election primaries took on March 15, 2016.

District 8

See also: Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2016

Texas' District 8 Republican primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. Incumbent Kevin Brady narrowly escaped having to compete in a primary runoff election, as he defeated his three challengers, Steve Toth, Andre Dean and Craig McMichael, with 53.4 percent of the primary vote. Brady had a commanding lead in fundraising over his challengers with $1,801,131 in total contributions to Toth's $131,503, Dean's $12,214 and McMichael's $7,392. However, anti-establishment sentiment and the popularity of Ted Cruz in the district made re-election more difficult than it might have initially seemed for Brady. Additionally, the three challengers worked together to some degree by not attacking one another and campaigning at different polling places in order to try and force Brady into a runoff election. The primary took place on March 1, 2016.

District 15

See also: Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2016

Texas' District 15 Democratic primary was considered a competitive primary in 2016. Seven Democratic candidates competed to fill the open seat that will be left with the retirement of incumbent Ruben Hinojosa. Of those seven, Vicente Gonzalez and Juan Palacios Jr. advanced to the primary runoff election, which was held on May 24, 2016. Gonzalez nearly avoided a primary runoff by taking 42.2 percent of the primary vote, and Palacios came in second with 18.9 percent. Gonzalez ultimately triumphed in the primary runoff, taking nearly two-thirds of the vote. Gonzalez was the clear favorite heading into the primary as far as fundraising was concerned, as he had reported contributions totaling $1,009,200—over triple that of the next closest competitor. However, almost all of that money was loaned to the campaign by Gonzalez himself. Dolly Elizondo had raised the second most funds with $229,042, followed by Juan Palacios Jr. with $193,297 and Rance Sweeten with $114,248.

District 19

See also: Texas' 19th Congressional District election, 2016

Texas' District 19 Republican primary was considered a competitive primary in 2016. The seat will be left open following the retirement of incumbent Randy Neugebauer (R). Nine Republicans competed in the primary to replace Neugebauer. Of those nine, Glen Robertson and Jodey Arrington advanced to the primary runoff election, which was on May 24, 2016. Arrington defeated Robertson in the runoff election to secure the Republican nomination. Heading into the primary, Robertson had vastly outraised the rest of the field with just under $1 million in total contributions. Jodey Arrington and Michael Bob Starr were the only other candidates to come close, with $351,186 and $233,250, respectively.

Most competitive primaries

The following table displays the most competitive primary races in the country in 2016. The outcomes of all of these races were determined by less than five percent of the vote.

See also

Suggest a link

• United States Congress elections, 2016
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
• Presidential election, 2016
• United States House of Representatives

Footnotes

For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!