U.S. Senate primaries, 2016
Primary elections will be held for 34 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats in 2016. In most of those races, the party of the winning candidate is all but decided before anyone even files to run. However, there are still several notable Democratic and Republican primaries in 2016, and this page serves to highlight those elections as races to watch. This page will not have information on competitive general election races. In fact, many of the primaries highlighted here will not have competitive general elections in the fall. For coverage of high-profile general election races, see Ballotpedia's U.S. Senate battlegrounds coverage.
General 2016 Senate election information
- Republicans hold 24 of the 34 seats up for re-election. The fact that the Republican Party has so many more seats to defend makes it much more vulnerable than the Democratic Party, regardless of political climate.
- Freshmen Republicans hold five of the six most competitive seats in the country. Those Republicans were first elected in the Tea Party wave of 2010 and will face their first re-election bid in 2016.
- This year's Senate election coincides with a presidential election. The higher voter interest and turnout will make re-election more difficult for those freshmen members of the GOP, who were elected in the midterm election of 2010, a very favorable political landscape for Republicans. It should be noted that many presidential primaries occur on different dates than congressional primaries, so this effect will likely be stronger in the general election than in the primary elections.
Because of these factors, control of the Senate is up for grabs in 2016. Republicans currently hold a tenuous 54-seat majority in the chamber, so Democrats will need to gain five seats in 2016 in order to retake control of the Senate. The U.S. House has virtually no chance of falling into Democratic hands, so if the Republican Party wins the White House in 2016, the Democratic Party will need to win the Senate to prevent Republicans from controlling the entire federal government. In order to prevent that from happening, they will be pouring a glut of resources into the competitive Senate races. The Republican Party will be doing the same in an attempt to defend their control of the chamber.
Criteria
It is typically difficult to predict how competitive primaries will be. However, Ballotpedia put together a number of factors that were used to give insight into the most interesting 2016 primary elections. While none of these factors by themselves indicated a close race, when combined, they often led to more intense competition. Factors used to determine the competitiveness of primaries included:
- Number of candidates
- Incumbent's years in office
- 2014 margin of victory
- Whether or not the seat is open (retiring or resigning incumbent)
- Whether or not the district's general election is considered a 2016 battleground
- Notable endorsements
- Significant fundraising
Races to watch
| The map below indicates which states have Senate election "races to watch." • Purple indicates a "race to watch," while green indicates a less competitive Senate primary. • Gray indicates that the state has not been assessed at this time or that the state does not have a 2016 election. As primary dates approach, more states will be assessed for competitive primaries. |
Race summaries
California
California's U.S. Senate primary was a race to watch in 2016. The seat was open following incumbent Barbara Boxer's decision to retire. Thirty-four candidates filed to run to replace Boxer, including seven Democrats, 12 Republicans, and 15 minor party candidates. In California, all candidates run in the same primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election. As expected, the two Democratic front-runners, Attorney General Kamala Harris and U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez, advanced to the general election. Both had received a number of endorsements and lead in polling heading into the primary.
Indiana
Indiana's U.S. Senate Republican primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat was open following incumbent Dan Coats' decision to retire. Two Republican candidates competed to replace Coats—Rep. Marlin Stutzman (IN-3) and Rep. Todd Young (IN-9). Young, the establishment favorite, easily defeated Stutzman to win the nomination. Heading into the election, Young had a strong lead over Stutzman in total fundraising. However, Stutzman had the backing of several conservative groups, including the Club for Growth. Indiana’s Senate race is currently rated safely Republican, meaning that Young is a strong favorite to win the general in November.[1]
Maryland
Maryland's U.S. Senate Democratic primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. The seat is open following incumbent Barbara Mikulski's decision to retire. Ten Democratic candidates filed to run in the race to replace Mikulski. Heading into the priamry, the two front-runners in the race were U.S. Reps. Donna Edwards (MD-4) and Chris Van Hollen (MD-8). Van Hollen defeated Edwards and eight other candidates to win the Democratic primary. Maryland’s Senate race is safely Democratic, meaning that Van Hollen is a strong favorite to win the general in November.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate Democratic primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. Four candidates—former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, Joseph Vodvarka, former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environment Protection Kathleen McGinty, and Braddock Mayor John Fetterman—competed for the chance to take on incumbent Pat Toomey (R) in the general election. Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race is considered a battleground in 2016. Sestak and McGinty were the front-runners heading into the primary. McGinty received a number of big endorsements, including President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. She also had the financial backing of the DSCC. Polls showed a close race between McGinty and Sestak, but McGinty ultimately triumphed.
Illinois
Illinois' U.S. Senate Democratic primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth, Chicago Urban League President and CEO Andrea Zopp, and state Sen. Napoleon Harris competed for the Democratic nomination. Duckworth easily won the Democratic primary on March 15, 2016. She will face incumbent Mark Kirk (R), one of the most vulnerable senators, in the general election. Heading into the primary, Duckworth was the clear frontrunner in fundraising, with contributions totaling $5,707,884.[2] Zopp had raised a total of $1,425,062 as of the FEC's year-end reports.[3] Harris trailed with $1,050,100 in total contributions.[4] Duckworth had also received a number of big endorsements from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Sen. Dick Durbin.[5][6][7] Zopp also received major endorsements from Rep. Danny K. Davis and Rev. Jesse Jackson.[8][9][10]
Ohio
Ohio's U.S. Senate Democratic primary was considered a race to watch in 2016. Kelli Prather, Cincinnati City Council Member P.G. Sittenfeld and former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland competed for the Democratic nomination. Strickland was the winner of the March 15 primary. Strickland lead his competitors in fundraising, with a total of $3,738,816 in 2015 contributions. Sittenfeld was second with $1,493,160 in 2015 contributions. Prather reported zero contributions on her 2015 year-end FEC report. Strickland was endorsed by Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and the Ohio Democratic Party. Sittenfeld was endorsed by former Ohio Gov. Richard Celeste.[11][12][13][14][15]
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2016
- United States Senate elections, 2016
- Presidential election, 2016
- United States Senate
Footnotes
- ↑ The New York Times, "Indiana Primary Results," May 3, 2016
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Tammy Duckworth Year-End Report," accessed February 23, 2016
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Zopp for US Senate Year-End Report," accessed February 23, 2016
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Napoleon for Illinois Year-End Report," accessed February 23, 2016
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times, "Sen. Durbin endorses Rep. Duckworth's Senate bid," June 4, 2015
- ↑ Roll Call, "DSCC Endorses Duckworth in Illinois Senate Race," July 9, 2015
- ↑ Twitter, "Kevin Robillard," September 8, 2015
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times, "Rep. Danny Davis endorses Andrea Zopp for Senate," November 15, 2015
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times, "Jackson endorses Zopp's bid for U.S. Senate," January 24, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016
- ↑ Cleveland.com, "PG Sittenfeld endorsed by former Ohio Gov. Richard Celeste," February 10, 2016
- ↑ Roll Call, "Bill Clinton Endorses Strickland in Ohio," March 31, 2015
- ↑ Politico, "Clinton: Strickland 'will be an important voice in the Senate,'" August 27, 2015
- ↑ Jon Husted Ohio Secretary of State, "Secretary Husted Certifies Candidates, Official Form of 2016 Primary Election Ballot," December 31, 2015
- ↑ FEC.gov, "Candidate and Committee Viewer," accessed February 26, 2016(Search Terms: Prather, Sittenfeld and Strickland)
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For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!
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