Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

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Special elections to the 115th Congress, 2017-2018
U.S. Senate
Alabama
Minnesota
Mississippi
U.S. House
Arizona's 8th District
California's 34th District
Georgia's 6th District
Kansas' 4th District
Michigan's 13th District
Montana's At-Large District
New York's 25th District
Ohio's 12th District
Pennsylvania's 7th District
Pennsylvania's 15th District
Pennsylvania's 18th District
South Carolina's 5th District
Texas' 27th District
Utah's 3rd District
Other 2017-2018 election coverage
2018 Statewide Elections
2018 Congressional Elections
2018 U.S. Senate Elections
2018 U.S. House Elections


In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip from a Republican to Democratic officeholder:

Special elections to Congress occur when a legislator resigns or is removed from office. Depending on the specific state laws governing vacancies, a state can either hold an election within the same calendar year or wait until the next regularly scheduled election. This page covers all special elections pertaining to the 115th Congress. Some of these special elections occurred in 2017, and others took place in 2018.[1]

Special elections that resulted in a partisan flip

Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District

See also: Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District special election, 2018

Mary Gay Scanlon (D) defeated Pearl Kim (R) and two other candidates in the special election for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District. The election coincided with the regular 2018 election on November 6, 2018. The winner of the special election served in Congress until Patrick Meehan's (R) term expired on January 1, 2019.[2]

On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Candidates on this page were listed under Pennsylvania’s new districts, which were used in the 2018 congressional elections. Click here for more information about the ruling. The special election for the 7th Congressional District was held under the old congressional maps.

Scanlon also defeated Kim in the regular election for the newly drawn 5th Congressional District.

Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District

See also: Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District special election, 2018

Attorney Susan Wild (D) defeated Olympic cyclist Marty Nothstein (R) and television reporter Tim Silfies (L) in the special election for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District. The winner of the special election served in Congress until Charlie Dent's (R) term expired on January 1, 2019.[3]

Wild also defeated Nothstein and Silfies in the regular election for the newly drawn 7th Congressional District.

Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District

See also: Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District special election, 2018

Democrat Conor Lamb won the special election for Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District against Republican Rick Saccone on March 13, 2018, by less than half a point.[4] The race was too close to call immediately following the election, and Saccone conceded to Lamb on March 21.[5]

The special election was held to fill the vacancy created by the departure of incumbent Tim Murphy (R). Murphy announced his resignation in October 2017 following reports that he encouraged a woman with whom he had an extramarital affair to have an abortion.[6] Lamb, Saccone, and Libertarian candidate Drew Miller competed for the seat.

The race received attention from national figures on both sides of the aisle. President Donald Trump (R) visited the state twice during the campaign, previewing his first trip with a tweet voicing support for Saccone and headlining a rally for the candidate during the second.[7][8][9][10] Vice President Mike Pence (R), counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway, and the president's son Donald Trump Jr. also visited the state on Saccone's behalf.[11][12][13] U.S. Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D-Mass.) traveled to Pennsylvania in February to support Lamb, and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) campaigned for Lamb in March.[14][15]

U.S. Senate in Alabama

See also: United States Senate special election in Alabama, 2017
USA Alabama location map.svg

A special election was held in Alabama on December 12, 2017. The primary election was held on August 15, 2017, with 18 candidates competing for the Democratic and Republican nominations.

Former U.S. attorney Doug Jones (D) defeated former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) in the general election on December 12, 2017.[16] Jones topped Moore by 1.7 points, 50 percent to 48.3 percent.[17] It was the only congressional special election in 2017 to result in a flipped seat.

Moore did not concede the race and said he considered requesting a recount.[18]

Why was there no recount?

Under Alabama law, a recount is automatically ordered when a candidate wins by no more than 0.5 percent of all votes cast for the office. Jones led Moore by 1.5 percentage when the count was unofficial.

A recount could also be requested by the losing candidate in some races, but he must pay for the costs.[19] Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill estimated that the process would cost $1 to $1.5 million.[20] The relevant state statutes also suggested that candidates for the U.S. Congress cannot petition for recounts.[21]

Was there a delay in the certification of results because of voter fraud claims?

No. On December 27, 2017, Moore filed a complaint alleging potential voter fraud. His complaint stated the higher voter turnout in Jefferson County was anomalous and that out-of-state voters had participated in the election. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R) said the following morning that Moore's complaint would not affect Jones' certification, which proceeded that afternoon.[22][23]

When was Jones sworn in?

The state certified the election results on December 28, 2017. Jones was sworn in on January 3, 2018, when the U.S. Senate returned from winter recess.[24][25]

What happened in the final weeks of the race?

In December 2017, Moore regained some support in public opinion polls—leading or tying Jones in six of the nine polls released that month—and from his own party, in the aftermath of sexual misconduct and assault allegations against him. President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Moore on December 4, 2017, and the Republican National Committee reinstated its fundraising agreement with him on the same day.[26] McConnell maintained, however, that Moore would face an ethics inquiry if he were seated in the Senate.[27] For more on the responses to the allegations, please see the timeline of reactions to the allegations.

By the end of November, Jones had outspent Moore on advertising in the general election. According to Advertising Analytics, Jones had aired more than 10,000 television spots and spent $5.6 million. Moore aired one-tenth that number of ads and spent about $800,000 on them.[28]

Jones also outraised Moore in individual contributions, $11.5 million to $5.2 million.[29] This was significantly more than any other Democratic Senate candidate in Alabama in the previous 10 years—the previous high in this time period was Vivian Davis Figures in 2008 with $293,000.[30]

Jones became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Alabama since Richard Shelby in 1992. Shelby later switched his party affiliation to Republican in 1994.

Special election results

Results of special elections to the 115th Congress
Race Election date Incumbent Winner Election MOV Previous election MOV 2016 Presidential election MOV[31]
Kansas' 4th Congressional District April 11, 2017 Republican Party Mike Pompeo Republican Party Ron Estes R+6 R+31 R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District May 25, 2017 Republican Party Ryan Zinke Republican Party Greg Gianforte R+6 R+15 R+21
California's 34th Congressional District June 6, 2017 Democratic Party Xavier Becerra Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez D+18[32] D+54[32] D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Tom Price Republican Party Karen Handel R+4 R+24 R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Mick Mulvaney Republican Party Ralph Norman R+3 R+20 R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District November 7, 2017 Republican Party Jason Chaffetz Republican Party John Curtis R+32 R+47 R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama December 12, 2017 Republican Party Jeff Sessions Democratic Party Doug Jones D+2 R+28 R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District March 13, 2018 Republican Party Tim Murphy Democratic Party Conor Lamb D+0[33] R+100 R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District April 24, 2018 Republican Party Trent Franks Republican Party Debbie Lesko R+6 R+38 R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District June 30, 2018 Republican Party Blake Farenthold Republican Party Michael Cloud R+23 R+24 R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District August 7, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Tiberi Republican Party Troy Balderson R+1 R+40 R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party John Conyers Jr. Democratic Party Brenda Jones D+78 D+61 D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Al Franken Democratic Party Tina Smith D+11 D+10 D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi November 6, 2018 Republican Party Thad Cochran Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith R+8 R+22 R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Louise Slaughter Democratic Party Joseph Morelle D+16 D+12 D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Meehan Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+6 R+19 D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Charlie Dent Democratic Party Susan Wild D+0 R+20 R+8


Background

From 2000 to 2018, partisan control of the U.S. Senate changed four times. Republicans controlled the chamber entering 2000. Democrats temporarily took a one-vote majority in the Senate after Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords decided to leave the Republican Party, serve as an independent, and caucus with the Democrats in 2001. Shortly before the 2002 midterm election, however, Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) was killed in a plane crash. His replacement, former Vice President Walter Mondale (D), was defeated by Norm Coleman (R). Following the midterm election, Coleman became the 51st Republican senator.[34] In 2005 and 2006, Republicans reached a high of 55 seats compared to the Democrats' 45.

Republicans lost control of the Senate in 2007 following the previous year's midterm election. Democrats won a 51-49 majority that year, which grew to a 59-41 split in 2010. The Senate changed hands again following the 2014 midterm election, and Republicans held a 54-46 majority in 2015 and 2016. This majority fell to a 52-48 split in 2017, and with the special election victory of Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D) shrinking the Republican majority to 51-49 in 2018, partisan control of the Senate was at risk of changing as a result of the 2018 elections.

If partisan control of the chamber did change in part because of Jones' win, it was another instance of the Senate majority shifting due to unexpected circumstances. A historical example of this would be 1953, when the Republican majority in the Senate shrank to 48-47 after Oregon Sen. Wayne Morse left the Republican Party to become an independent. Nine senators died from 1953 to 1955. When Ohio Sen. Robert Taft (R) died during the summer of 1953, a Democrat was appointed to replace him, which gave the Democratic Party a one-vote majority. The following summer, Wyoming Sen. Lester Hunt (D) committed suicide and a Republican was appointed to replace him. This flipped the majority back into Republican control.[34]

Analysis of regular election rematches

Five congressional elections on November 6, 2018, featured a rematch of special election candidates. This was the largest number of regular election rematches between the top-two special election finishers in an election cycle in 50 years.[35]

According to an analysis by Eric Ostermeier, of the 173 U.S. House special elections conducted between 1968 and 2016 and held earlier than the November regular election date, 41 were followed by a rematch with the same candidates. Only six of these rematches—15 percent—saw the special election winner unseated by the special election loser.[35]

Results of special election rematches
Race Candidates Special election winner Special election MOV Regular election winner Regular election MOV
Arizona's 8th Democratic Party Hiral Tipirneni
Republican Party Debbie Lesko
Republican Party Debbie Lesko R+6 Republican Party Debbie Lesko R+11
Kansas' 4th Democratic Party James Thompson
Republican Party Ron Estes
Republican Party Ron Estes R+6 Republican Party Ron Estes R+20
Ohio's 12th Democratic Party Danny O'Connor
Republican Party Troy Balderson
Republican Party Troy Balderson R+1 Republican Party Troy Balderson R+5
South Carolina's 5th Democratic Party Archie Parnell
Republican Party Ralph Norman
Republican Party Ralph Norman R+3 Republican Party Ralph Norman R+15
Texas' 27th Democratic Party Eric Holguin
Republican Party Michael Cloud
Republican Party Michael Cloud R+23 Republican Party Michael Cloud R+23

See also


Footnotes

  1. In Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District, Kevin Hern (R) won the election on November 6, 2018. He was sworn into office early on November 13, 2018, since former incumbent Jim Bridenstine (R) had previously vacated the office. The office of the clerk in the U.S. House referred to this as a special election, but Ballotpedia did not count it as one since the office was set to be up for regular election on that date regardless.
  2. The Morning Call, "Governor sets election date for replacing U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent," May 2, 2018
  3. The Morning Call, "Governor sets election date for replacing U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent," May 2, 2018
  4. Pennsylvania Department of State, "Official Returns," accessed May 24, 2018
  5. The Hill, "Saccone concedes Pennsylvania House special election to Lamb," March 21, 2018
  6. The New York Times, "Conservative Pennsylvania congressman resigns amid abortion scandal," October 5, 2017
  7. Politico, "Trump races to head off another special election debacle," January 11, 2018
  8. The Washington Post, "At Pennsylvania rally, Trump again calls for the death penalty for drug dealers," March 10, 2018
  9. Twitter, "Donald J. Trump on January 18, 2018," accessed January 18, 2018
  10. Pittsburgh Patch, "Trump endorses Saccone in 18th Congressional District race," January 23, 2018
  11. The Hill, "Pence to appear at fundraiser for Pennsylvania GOP candidate," January 26, 2018
  12. The Washington Post, "The Daily 202: Trump launches a rescue mission to save GOP seat in Pennsylvania special election," March 9, 2018
  13. The Washington Post, "Donald Trump Jr., Rick Saccone and plenty of chocolate: The final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania's special election," March 12, 2018
  14. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Joe Kennedy campaigns quietly for Conor Lamb," February 2, 2018
  15. The Times, "Joe Biden to campaign with Conor Lamb next week, including RMU rally," March 1, 2018
  16. The New York Times, "Live Alabama Election Results: Roy Moore and Doug Jones Compete for Senate Seat," December 12, 2017
  17. The New York Times, "Alabama Election Results: Doug Jones Defeats Roy Moore in U.S. Senate Race," Decemer 12, 2017
  18. AL.com, "Roy Moore recount could cost $1 million, may not be allowed," updated March 6, 2019
  19. Code of Alabama, "Section 17-16-20," accessed December 12, 2017
  20. Fortune, "Roy Moore Won't Concede the Alabama Senate Race. But He Might Not Be Able to Afford a Recount," December 14, 2017
  21. Election Law Blog, "Breaking: Under Alabama Law, Roy Moore May Not Be Able to Request a Recount If The Margin is More than 0.5%," December 12, 2017
  22. CNN, "Roy Moore files complaint to block Alabama Senate result," December 28, 2017
  23. Associated Press, "Roy Moore files lawsuit to block Alabama Senate result," December 28, 2017
  24. AL.com, "Doug Jones picks Joe Biden to escort him for swearing-in ceremony," January 2, 2018
  25. CNN, "Alabama certifies Jones' win over Moore," December 28, 2017
  26. The Hill, "RNC reinstates support for Moore after Trump endorsement," December 4, 2017
  27. The Hill, "McConnell: 'No change of heart' on Roy Moore," December 5, 2017
  28. Politico, "Moore buried under TV ad barrage," November 27, 2017
  29. Vox, "Doug Jones got more money from Alabama voters than Roy Moore did," December 12, 2017
  30. FEC, "2008 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Alabama ," accessed December 12, 2017
  31. Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
  32. 32.0 32.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
  33. Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
  34. 34.0 34.1 Politico, "Republican Control of the Senate Hangs by a Thread," December 21, 2017
  35. 35.0 35.1 Smart Politics, "How Often Do Seats Flip in Rematches of US House Special Elections?" August 13, 2018