United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016

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2016 U.S. Senate Election in Indiana

General Election Date
November 8, 2016

Primary Date
May 3, 2016

November 8 Election Winner:
Todd Young Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Dan Coats Republican Party
Dan Coats.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up[1]
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up[2]
Rothenberg & Gonzales: Pure Toss-up[3]

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2016 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Indiana.png

Voters in Indiana elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 8, 2016.

The race for Indiana's Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Todd Young (R) defeated Evan Bayh (D), Lucy Brenton (L), and James Johnson (I) (Write-in) in the general election to win retiring incumbent Dan Coats' (R) Senate seat on November 8, 2016.[4][5][6]

Bayh, a former U.S. Senator, governor of Indiana, and Indiana Secretary of State received major media attention upon his announcement that he was running for the seat he left in 2011. Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, said Bayh’s run “might be the biggest surprise in Senate races this year.”[7]

Bayh said wanted to return to the Senate to address the same issues of partisanship and gridlock that led him to retire, “Things in Washington have only gotten worse, and it grieves me to see what’s happened in our country, the unmet challenges that so many of our families face. I just concluded that I couldn’t stand on the sidelines anymore and needed to do what I could to try and bring us together to meet our challenges.”[8]

Young, who represented Indiana's 9th Congressional District from 2011 to 2017, ran on his background as a former Marine, ‘“I would say more than anything else, this election is about who Hoosiers can trust. It’s about character,” Young said. “Either (voters) place their trust in a Marine who lives here in Indiana … or they place their trust in a career politician who’s cashed out and has an unseemly post-Senate career he doesn’t want to talk about.”[9]

In August 2016, Republicans accused Bayh of not living in Indiana, citing reports that he was listed as an inactive voter by the Indiana Election Division. CNN also reported that public records showed Bayh listed his two Washington, D.C. homes as his places of primary residence instead of his home in Indianapolis.[10]

During a campaign stop, Young said, “What I’m hearing from people across the board is they are frustrated by their elected representatives going to Washington, D.C., and forgetting about Indiana. They believe special interests and Washington lobbyists — like Evan Bayh — are a big part of the problem, and they’re right.”[11]

In response to a question about his homes, Bayh told the Indianapolis Star, “Susan and I spent the last couple of nights at our Indianapolis home, and we like it. If Congressman Young and his allies want to attack me, that’s their decision. I’m going to attack the challenges that face Hoosier families and our country. That’s why I’m running.”[8]

U.S. Senate, Indiana General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Young 52.1% 1,423,991
     Democratic Evan Bayh 42.4% 1,158,947
     Libertarian Lucy Brenton 5.5% 149,481
     N/A Write-in 0% 127
Total Votes 2,732,546
Source: Indiana Election Division


U.S. Senate, Indiana Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Young 67.1% 661,136
Marlin Stutzman 32.9% 324,429
Total Votes 985,565
Source: Indiana Secretary of State

This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 congressional races in 2016. Click here to read the full list.

HISTORICAL FACTS
  • Incumbent Sen. Dan Coats (R) held Indiana's Senate seat since 2011. He retired at the end of his term.
  • Sen. Evan Bayh was the last Democrat elected to the seat. Bayh served from 1999 to 2011.
  • The Senate seat had changed party control 14 times.
  • Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
    February 5, 2016
    May 3, 2016
    November 8, 2016

    Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Indiana utilizes an open primary system. Voters are not required to register with a party, but state statutes stipulate that citizens vote in the primary of the party they have voted for most often in the past.[12]

    For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.


    Incumbent: The election filled the Class 3 Senate seat held by Dan Coats (R). He was first elected in 2010. Coats officially announced that he would not seek re-election on March 24, 2015.[13]

    Election results

    General election

    U.S. Senate, Indiana General Election, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Young 52.1% 1,423,991
         Democratic Evan Bayh 42.4% 1,158,947
         Libertarian Lucy Brenton 5.5% 149,481
         N/A Write-in 0% 127
    Total Votes 2,732,546
    Source: Indiana Election Division

    Primary election

    U.S. Senate, Indiana Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Young 67.1% 661,136
    Marlin Stutzman 32.9% 324,429
    Total Votes 985,565
    Source: Indiana Secretary of State

    Candidates

    General election candidates:

    Republican Party Todd Young Approveda
    Democratic Party Evan Bayh
    Libertarian Party Lucy Brenton
    Grey.png James Johnson (Write-in)

    Primary candidates:[14]

    Democratic

    Evan Bayh - Former senator[15]

    Republican

    Marlin Stutzman - U.S. Rep.[16]
    Todd Young - U.S. Rep.[17] Approveda

    Withdrew:
    John Dickerson (D)[18][19]
    Eric Holcomb (R) - Incumbent Coats' chief of staff[20][21]
    Kevin Grant[22][23]
    Baron Hill (D) - Former U.S. Rep.[24][15]


    General election background

    Republican coattails

    Senator-elect Todd Young benefitted from having President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump won 57.2 percent of the vote, while Young won 52.2 percent, a 5.0 percent difference.

    A full breakdown of the Republican presidential and Senate races appears below.

    *Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races as battleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are from CNN and will be updated after the final results are released.

    Bayh’s 2010 job hunt

    After obtaining Bayh’s 2010 schedules, The Associated Press found that the former senator was looking for a job in the private sector during his last year in Congress while he was casting “votes on issues of interest to his future corporate bosses.”[25]

    According to The Associated Press, “Bayh met and talked repeatedly with headhunters at more than a half-dozen recruiting firms, and with officials at Apollo Global Management, Marathon Oil Co., and three other companies he would work with after his retirement: the McGuireWoods law firm, Leading Authorities, Inc. speaker’s bureau, and the investment firm RLJ Companies. At the same time the Senate was weighing major pieces of legislation, including the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul bill and an extension of the Bush tax cuts, and in some cases Bayh was casting votes that seemed to align with the interests of his future employers.”[25]

    It was unclear if Bayh violated Senate Ethics rules, but The AP noted that Bayh failed to file a disclosure about one of his meetings. “According to the schedules, a headhunter named Mike Flood paid for Bayh’s hotel stays on at least two nights, as well as transportation to and around New York City in November 2010. Senate rules say that such expenditures must be disclosed when they top $250, but it does not appear Bayh ever made such a disclosure.”[25]

    Senate Banking Committee

    Progressive groups, including the Courage Campaign, CPD Action, CREDO Action, Democracy for America, MoveOn.org, New York Communities for Change, Other98, Presente.org, RootsAction.org, and Rootstrikers, sent a letter to presumptive Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) asking him to oppose making Bayh chairman of the Senate Banking Committee if he was elected.[26]

    The groups wrote, “The Committee already conspicuously harbors several of the Democratic Caucus’s most conservative, Wall Street-friendly members. … Any attempt to have Evan Bayh installed as chair, or other efforts to appoint members who support the interests of Wall Street above those of the American people, must be opposed. … The financial industry is floating [Bayh’s] name to the media in a brazen, cynical attempt to tilt the Committee’s membership even further toward Wall Street.”[26]

    According to The Washington Post, “The letter follows a report in American Banker in August speculating that Bayh, who sat on the Banking Committee from 2000 to 2010, could find himself with more seniority on the panel than current Ranking Member Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) if Bayh returns to the Senate.” The groups wanted to see Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), “a fierce critic of Wall Street,” lead the committee.[26]

    President George W. Bush campaigns for Young

    Former President George W. Bush appeared at two campaign fundraisers with Young on September 12, 2016. Young said, President Bush “wants to make sure that we have a Republican check and balance against our next president, and if that president should be Hillary Clinton we especially need a Republican check and balance as we consider shaping the future of the U.S. Supreme Court. … This race is becoming very important and that's what brings President Bush here as well, he understands that control of an entire United States Senate could very well come down to the State of Indiana.”[27]

    Young chooses to sleep in office

    When Young was first elected, he rented an apartment in Washington, D.C., but later decided to sleep in his office instead. He explained the decision, saying, "I found myself retiring after long days to a dark apartment, which was not conducive to doing work or developing relationships with my colleagues. I just decided, seeing as I never intended to put roots down here in Washington, to instead allow my lease to be terminated and do what so many other members of Congress do, which is rest my head at the end of a long day in my office.”[28]

    He added that he spends most of his time in Indiana. He said, “The vast majority of my job is, and should be done, in the state of Indiana. If we’re going to make sure that we get our legislation right … we need to actually be spending time with Hoosiers.”[28]

    Bayh’s Indiana residence questioned

    After he entered the race, Bayh was forced to defend his Indiana residency and his loyalty to the state. On July 11, 2016, Young criticized Bayh for abandoning Indiana after he left the Senate in 2011. Young said, "After he cast the deciding vote for Obamacare, Evan Bayh left Indiana families to fend for themselves so he could cash-in with insurance companies and influence peddlers as a gold-plated lobbyist. This seat isn't the birthright of a wealthy lobbyist from Washington, it belongs to the people of Indiana."[29]

    Inactive voter status

    In August 2016, the Indiana Election Division listed Bayh as an inactive voter. The state also listed him as an inactive voter in July 2014. According to CNN, Bayh was still a registered voter, but “being considered inactive is the first step from being removed altogether from the voter rolls.”[30]

    Bayh’s residence

    After reviewing public records since Bayh left the Senate in 2011, CNN reported that the former senator listed Washington, D.C., as his main residence, rather than Indianapolis. Bayh owned two homes in Washington, D.C.—a $2.4 million home in Spring Valley and a $2.9 million home in Georgetown. Bayh claimed Indiana residency because he owned a $59,000 condo in Indianapolis. He also owned a condo in Key Biscayne, Florida.[31][32]

    According to CNN, “[W]hen Bayh registered his address -- whether it was on an Alaska fishing license, a donation to Hillary Clinton or on the deed to his beachfront property in Southern Florida -- he listed Washington as his home. Even when Bayh returned back to Indianapolis last summer for an Indiana Democratic Party dinner, he stayed at a JW Marriott just 12 miles away from his condo. A source with Indianapolis Power and Light said Bayh's monthly electric bills averaged less than $20 per month since 2012, suggesting little -- if any -- use at his Indiana condo.”[31]

    Bayh defended his loyalty to the state, saying, “I think you can follow me around here, people know me, they know my service. I was representing my state when my opponent was in high school. I mean, I know our state. I love our state. Five generations. I don’t think that’s going to be a compelling issue.”[32]

    When Politico asked Bayh “how much of his time he spends in Indiana compared to Washington,” Bayh said, “a lot. I can’t reduce it to a number.”[32]

    Bayh gives incorrect Indiana address

    On August 20, 2016, amid questions about his Indiana residency, Bayh told a local television station that his address was 1142 C, Canterbury Court in Indianapolis, but his "address is actually Canterbury Square, not Court. The address Bayh told WLFI-TV is located several blocks away from his home address and in the same neighborhood," according to Independent Journal Review.[33][34][35]

    Bayh enters race

    On July 22, 2016, after national Democrats persuaded Bayh to return to the Senate and Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the race, Bayh announced that he would run for Indiana’s open Senate seat. Bayh announced his entry into the race in the following statement: “Susan and I met with business owners, entrepreneurs, neighbors and friends all across Indiana before tonight’s important step. We listened to their hopes, fears and solutions for the future. They’re concerned about keeping our communities safe, our businesses growing and making sure opportunities like college are affordable for our children. They also expect bipartisanship and compromise to get things done instead of ideology and obstruction. The challenges we face need to be tackled with Indiana common sense and a commitment to putting progress ahead of politics. I’m ready to get to work on winning this campaign, but more importantly, getting to work for Hoosiers.”[36]

    Bayh’s reason for leaving the Senate in 2011

    Bayh, who served two terms as Indiana’s governor and two terms as a senator from the state, announced in February 2010 that he would not run for re-election. According to Reuters, Bayh said that he wanted to leave the Senate because of partisan discord, the inability of lawmakers to make decisions outside of their “narrow ideology,” and “the kind of bitter politicking that has put President Barack Obama's whole agenda in jeopardy.” Bayh said, "I love helping our citizens make the most of their lives, but I do not love Congress.”[37]

    He also published an op-ed explaining his decision to leave Congress, and he offered possible solutions for fixing how Congress and our political culture functions. He wrote, "What is required from members of Congress and the public alike is a new spirit of devotion to the national welfare beyond party or self-interest. In a time of national peril, with our problems compounding, we must remember that more unites us as Americans than divides us."[38]

    Bayh commented on his plans for his post-Senate career, saying, "I looked at the next six years, and I thought maybe I can help create jobs in the private sector, maybe I can work at a university helping to educate young people, maybe I can help lead a foundation or a philanthropy that is trying to cure cancer and other major diseases. Those are tangible, real accomplishments that maybe I could help make for people's lives."[39]

    Bayh’s post-Senate career

    Bayh worked as a partner in McGuireWoods, a law firm in Washington, D.C. Young tried to portray Bayh as a lobbyist, but Bayh said that he was not one. According to The South Bend Tribune, “He has explained that his role at McGuireWoods has been to provide clients with advice, not lobby the government. The firm’s website describes him as ‘a strategic advisor to many of the firm’s most significant clients, particularly those whose business goals are impacted by the actions of Congress, the executive branch, or by governors and legislators across the country.’”[11] Bayh was also a senior adviser in Apollo Global Management, a New York-based private equity firm.[40]

    Primary election background

    Coats not seeking re-election

    On March 24, 2015, Sen. Dan Coats (R) announced that he would not seek re-election, making his seat a highly sought after prize for Republicans who hoped to maintain control of the upper chamber and Democrats who hoped to regain control. Coats said, “Today I am announcing that I will not seek reelection to the United States Senate. This was not an easy decision. While I believe I am well-positioned to run a successful campaign for another six-year term, I have concluded that the time has come to pass this demanding job to the next generation of leaders."[41]

    After leaving the Senate in 1999, Coats ran for re-election in 2010 and won Bayh’s seat when Bayh retired from the Senate. Coats previously served in the Senate from 1989 to 1999. He was appointed to the Senate after Indiana Senator Dan Quayle was elected vice president in 1988.[42]

    Hill withdraws

    In a Facebook post on July 11, 2016, Hill announced that he would exit the Senate race.

    I have never run away from tough decisions or tough fights. But, I am a pragmatic person who will always put my country and my state first. I am also a proud Democrat who wants to see an Indiana Democrat fighting for Hoosier families alongside Senator Joe Donnelly in the U.S. Senate. And, I want to do everything in my power to ensure a U.S. Senate that will govern responsibly. That is why, after consulting with my family, my staff and party leaders, I am withdrawing from the U.S. Senate race and removing my name from the November ballot. While our campaign had been making great progress and building momentum all over Indiana, it is simply not enough to fight back against the slew of out-of-state, special interest and dark money that is certain to come our way between now and November. Democrats have a very real chance at winning this Senate seat, especially with a strong nominee who has the money, name identification and resources to win. I do not want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions. In accordance with Indiana law, I have filed the necessary paperwork to withdraw from the race and I have notified Indiana Democratic Party Chairman John Zody. The Indiana Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will now undertake a process to fill the vacancy with a nominee who will win in November. To those of you who have been with me from the very beginning and who have contributed to this campaign or any of my previous campaigns, I cannot thank you enough for the support you have given to Betty and me. We are eternally grateful, and your faith in us will never be forgotten.[43]
    —Baron Hill[44]

    One of the reasons Hill stepped aside was his inability to raise enough money to compete against Young.[45]

    Bayh’s statement of Hill’s departure

    After Hill announced he was leaving the race, Bayh said in a statement, “Baron Hill has always put Indiana first, and has been focused on setting aside party differences to strengthen our state and country. I share this commitment, and agree with him that the stakes have never been higher. Baron and I have spoken and we both believe that we must send leaders to Washington who will put Hoosiers' interests ahead of any one political party."[45]

    Challenge of Young's signatures

    The Indiana Democratic Party challenged Young's candidate petitions, claiming that he fell short of the required 500 signatures from Indiana's 1st Congressional District.[46] Following the Democratic Party's challenge, fellow GOP candidate Marlin Stutzman formally challenged Young's petitions as well.[47]

    The Indiana Election Commission allowed Young to stay on the ballot, splitting along party lines in a 2-2 vote. Democrats did not challenge the ruling in court. Party chairman John Zody said of the decision, "After thoroughly exploring all options and what is best for our candidates and party moving forward, the Indiana Democratic Party will not pursue legal action."[48][49]

    Defeated candidates

    Stutzman's personal use of campaign funds

    On April 20, 2016, The Associated Press released a story accusing Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) of using campaign funds to pay for a family vacation. Stutzman claimed that the trip to Los Angeles was a campaign expense because his family joined him for several campaign events. He then repaid the money to his campaign fund. The story also claimed that Stutzman's campaign paid roughly $130,000 for airfare and hotels compared to $27,000 spent by Todd Young's (R) campaign during the same time period. Stutzman's campaign manager Josh Kelley said of the claims, "It is irresponsible to imply that Marlin Stutzman has not always done his best to be in compliance with all FEC rules and regulations."[50]

    Stutzman campaign

    In October 2015, Stutzman's campaign manager, political director, and general consultant all left his campaign. Commenting on the departures, Stutzman said, "It’s what I’ve been looking at for our team and where the political environment is at right now. I thought it was good to have a team that has their finger on the plus of Indiana politics."[51]

    Issues

    The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal

    See also: The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal: An overview

    Bayh and Young both opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is a trade deal between the United States and 11 Asia-Pacific countries. The deal seeks to promote trade and strengthen the relationships between the 12 nations by reducing and eliminating tariffs, fostering competition, and creating greater opportunities for businesses. The countries involved have also agreed to promote environmental protection practices and enforce laws protecting workers. Congress has not voted on the final agreement.

    Free trade deals were of particular importance to Indiana residents because the “air conditioner manufacturer Carrier and an affiliate announced plans to lay off 2,100 Hoosier workers and move production units to Mexico. GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has blasted the decision on the campaign trail, promising to impose steep tariffs on companies that move jobs overseas,” according to the Indy Star.[52]

    Bayh opposes TPP

    Bayh opposed the TPP because he said it would lead to job losses in Indiana. According to his campaign website, “Indiana’s workers have the skills to compete and succeed against any nation on Earth, but not with our two hands tied behind our back. That’s why Evan opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal that lacks the necessary provisions to protect good-paying Hoosier jobs from being outsourced overseas. Evan believes that before the United States considers or agrees to any new trade deals, we must improve enforcement of our trade laws, including cracking down on currency manipulation and better protecting American ingenuity and Intellectual Property.”[53]

    Young opposes TPP

    Young voted in favor of giving President Barack Obama trade promotion authority (TPA) to negotiate the TPP, but ultimately said that he could not support the final trade deal. Young said, “I’ve got some real problems with specific provisions in the (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement). I do the responsible thing every legislator would do when you have an opportunity to open up foreign markets to our food, fiber and manufactured goods — which is wait for the debate. But until the intellectual property protections are fixed pertaining to biologics, which would adversely impact Eli Lilly’s model, for example, I’m not prepared to support it.”[54][55][52]

    Bayh on tax reform

    While speaking at the Indiana Manufacturing Conference in October 2016, Bayh discussed comprehensive corporate tax reform. He said, “The tax rate of 35 percent is just way out of whack with what companies pay in other countries. If we can get that rate down to, let’s say somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 percent, we’ll make ourselves globally competitive, we will eliminate the incentive for many of these large corporations to invert themselves and relocate in Ireland and places like that.”[56]

    According to the Kokomo Tribune, "Bayh claimed that if the corporate rate can be lowered, billions of dollars will be made available for an infrastructure initiative for projects related to roads, bridges, airports, rail facilities and more."[56]

    Brenton on tax reform

    Brenton proposed streamlining the government and eliminating corporate taxes to keep money in the pockets of Indiana's residents. According to her campaign website, "First, we must commit to keeping the government at the absolute minimum size. Too many government agencies are parasites on taxpayers, staffing alphabet soup agencies that are not operating within nor authorized by the Constitution. A streamlined government keeping power here it belongs: in the hands of the people that it serves. Corporate taxes must end. Why? Corporations do NOT pay taxes. They write the check – but only because they first get the money from their customers. It is the customers who pay the taxes. Corporate taxation is only a scheme to mask the transfer of funds to the government."[57]

    Young on tax reform

    Young signed the Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) Taxpayer Protection Pledge. According to ATR, by signing the pledge, "candidates and incumbents make a written commitment to oppose any and all tax increases. While ATR has the role of promoting and monitoring the Pledge, the Taxpayer Protection Pledge is made to a candidate's constituents, who deserve to know where candidates stand on the tax issue."[58][59]

    Republican Party Young's campaign themes

    Young, a retired Marine intelligence officer with counterterrorism training, highlighted his national security credentials on the campaign trail. He said, “I happen to believe we are fighting radical Islamic jihadists right now, and they must be defeated. Collectively, we and our allies and other partners in the region need to develop a coherent, comprehensive strategy to fight and destroy groups like ISIS, using all the instruments of national power — economic, diplomatic and, yes, even military power.”[11]

    Young’s other priorities included “addressing how federal regulations and the tax code affect the economy and improving programs to help ‘the poor, the vulnerable and at-risk Americans’ such as the long-term unemployed, foster children and people with disabilities,” according to The South Bend Tribune.[11]

    The following issues were listed on Young's campaign website. A full explanation of Young's stance on each issue can be viewed here.

    • Agriculture: Agriculture is the lifeblood of the Hoosier economy. Products grown in Indiana feed not only the rest of the country, but also the rest of the world. Unfortunately, it has been a trying time to be a Hoosier farmer. The EPA’s WOTUS rule is the biggest unilateral regulatory overreach in recent memory.
    • Education: An education is one of the most fundamental aspects of a young person’s life. It is absolutely crucial that we are able to make decisions to put our children in the best position to succeed. Unfortunately, Washington is dead set on controlling education decisions and budgets.
    • Healthcare: Make no mistake: Obamacare is nothing short of a government takeover of your healthcare. Todd supports a repeal of Obamacare and wants to replace it with common-sense health care reform that keeps your health care decisions between you and your doctor – not between you and the government.
    • Jobs & Economy: Jobs. Too many Americans don't have them, and folks in Washington spend too little time worrying about them. Hoosiers elected Todd to Congress because they wanted a new, conservative approach to economic policies. Government doesn't create jobs, it just tends to get in the way of how small businesses operate. Todd listens to small business owners to learn what obstacles he can remove so they can create more jobs.
    • Tax Reform: Taxes are complicated. Everybody knows that – Todd Young included. That's why he is fighting to have the current tax system simplified in order to reward Americans for working hard, investing and saving the money they've earned. Most importantly, it allows you to keep more of your hard-earned money in your own pocket. We can accomplish this by reforming the current tax code with a simpler system.
    • Spending & Balanced Budget: The single greatest threat to our nation's future – to the future we owe to our children – is the rapidly growing national debt. The plain truth is that that we spend more than we take in and borrow more than 40 cents for every dollar spent. The U.S. is mired in over $16 trillion of debt—roughly the same size as our annual national economy. Five trillion dollars of that has been added since 2008 under the Obama administration. There is no way to spin it, no matter how hard Democrats try: our current path is unsustainable.
    • Medicare, Medicaid & Social Security: Mandatory spending programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are vital programs to protect the elderly, the sick and the poor. Unfortunately, they are heading for bankruptcy. If we don't act soon, those of us who rely on them most could very well be left without the assistance we've paid into and need. There will be nothing left for future generations.
    • National Defense: One of the most important duties of the government is providing for the public safety and national defense. As a former Marine Corps intelligence officer and a previous member of the House Armed Services Committee, Todd takes this duty very seriously.
    • Pro-Life: Todd knows that life begins at conception, and that the right to life – just like the right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness – is of utmost importance. He also knows not every woman is prepared to raise a child. That's why Todd is also a strong advocate of adoption – support which stretches back to Todd's time in the private sector.
    • 2nd Amendment: As a member of the National Rifle Association and a U.S. Marine, Todd is a proud supporter of the 2nd Amendment. Last Congress Todd was a co-sponsor of a measure that would give national reciprocity to the conceal-carry permits of individual states. When properly licensed gun owners travel with their firearms, they shouldn't have to worry about whether or not they are breaking the law.

    [43]

    —Todd Young's campaign website, https://toddyoung.org/issues

    Democratic Party Bayh's campaign themes

    The following issues were listed on Bayh's campaign website.

    • Agriculture: Hundreds of thousands of Hoosier jobs count on Indiana’s growing agricultural economy. Yet, many farmers feel threatened by Washington regulation. For Indiana to succeed, we need a Senator who will be a voice for farmers in Washington and fight unnecessary regulation on family farms. Evan Bayh is a fifth generation Hoosier and the proud grandson of a farmer. True to his family, Evan Bayh will be a friend and ally for farmers, promoting policies that will help farmers succeed and get their product to market.
    • Medicare and Social Security: America has made a commitment to take care of our seniors. For Evan Bayh, it is unacceptable to compromise the promises that we’ve made to them by cutting historically important programs like Medicare and Social Security. As Indiana’s next Senator, Evan will champion Social Security and Medicare, fulfilling the pledge that we’ve made to those who came before us.
    • Jobs: Small businesses are the engine of our economy and we need to focus our attention on advancing policies that help them grow and prosper. … Evan believes in encouraging the creation of new small businesses and easing the burden on successful ones seeking to expand and create more good-paying jobs. In the Senate, Evan will fight to reduce regulations and increase access to capital for small business owners so that they can grow their organization, and encourage long-term investments in new technologies and equipment. Evan’s plan will incentivize opportunities for research and development, making Hoosier workers more productive. For Evan, when it comes to supporting Hoosier businesses, it doesn’t matter if an idea is a Republican idea or a Democratic idea, what matters is that it’s a good idea.
    • National Security: As Indiana’s Senator, Evan Bayh will make obliterating ISIS and eliminating the root causes of terrorism a top priority. Evan will fight for intensifying the airstrike campaign against ISIS, promoting global partnership in the war against terror, and expanding the network of our intelligence community. At home, it is essential that America bolster its domestic intelligence and make sure that first responders are fully equipped and trained to keep us safe. Our national security forces must have the resources necessary to root out lone wolves before they choose to act. Evan is committed to supporting America’s longtime ally Israel by getting tough on Iran. In 2009 Evan sponsored tough new sanctions on Iran, and last year he broke with his own party to oppose the President’s nuclear deal.
    • Education: Evan Bayh knows that America can’t continue to ignore the rising costs of a college education. America needs innovators and entrepreneurs to have big ideas and dream big dreams to keep America ahead. During his time as Governor, Evan created the 21st Century Scholars program. It made college affordable and drove students to succeed. The program had students commit to success in the eighth grade, requiring a B average and a clean record. Indiana needs its brightest stars to shine and the 21st Century Scholars program encourages more stars to shine even brighter — more than 70,000 Hoosier stars to date. Evan believes that the 21st Century Scholars program was one of his greatest achievements as Governor. As Indiana’s next Senator, he’s committed to creating similar opportunities for students nationwide and making sure that no good student has to turn down college because they can’t afford it.

    [43]

    —Evan Bayh’s campaign website, http://evanbayhforindiana.com/issues/

    Presidential preference

    Influence of Clinton and Trump

    In most battleground races, Republican President Donald Trump was a major presence and influenced the strategies of Republican and Democratic candidates, but he was not a central figure in Indiana. Many vulnerable Republican candidates tried to distance themselves from Trump without alienating his supporters, but Young did not have to deal with this issue, likely because Trump was expected to win Indiana, which he did. Although Young said he supported Trump, he did not campaign with Trump or speak much about him on the campaign trail. A key strategy of many Democrats was to tie congressional Republicans to Trump, but Bayh avoided this strategy. This was one race where ties to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton may have hurt the Democratic Party's chances of taking control of the Senate. Clinton was unpopular in the state, and Bayh’s support for her candidacy may have hurt him on election night.[60][61]

    Trump chose Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his running mate. According to Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, "Pence, has united the GOP factions behind the ticket in a normally Republican state, and it benefits the whole Hoosier GOP ticket."[62]

    Republican Party Todd Young

    See also: Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump
    • On May 6, 2016, Young’s campaign manager Trevor Foughty said, “Todd Young has consistently said he intends to support the Republican nominee for president because we cannot have a third term of Barack Obama with Hillary Clinton as our next president.” He did not formally endorse Trump.[63]
    • On August 3, 2016, Young did not say whether he would endorse Trump. Instead, he said, “My focus, of course, has been on the United States Senate race, and making sure that we don’t have another four years of these Obama/Clinton policies.”[64]

    Young praises Khan family

    Young, a retired Marine Corps intelligence officer, expressed his support for Khizr and Ghazala Khan, the parents of fallen United States Army Captain Humayun S. M. Khan. After the Khans criticized Trump during the Democratic National Convention on July 28, 2016, Trump responded by criticizing the Kahns for questioning his knowledge of the U.S. Constitution and suggested that Ghazala Khan did not speak at the convention because of her Islamic faith.[64][65]

    On August 3, 2016, Young said, “One of the reasons I served in the Marine Corps was to ensure that regardless of political differences we would honor our servicemen, and one of the reasons that Marines fight is to protect people’s right to have political differences. So my hat goes off to the Khan family, and my heart is with them and certainly my family’s prayers.”[64]

    Trump as commander in chief

    During an interview on August 29, 2016, when Young, a retired Marine, was asked if he was comfortable with Trump serving as commander in chief, he said, "I'm comfortable with a complete change in direction in our foreign policy, and the Republican nominee has offered that."[66]

    Young was then asked if he was comfortable with Trump possessing the nation's nuclear launch codes. He avoided directly answering the question. Instead, “[h]e finally declared that Hillary Clinton has disqualified herself from having a top secret security clearance,” according to The Associated Press. Young added, "Donald Trump has not disqualified himself from getting a top secret security clearance."[66]

    Democratic Party Evan Bayh

    See also: Endorsements for Hillary Clinton
    • On April 23, 2015, Bayh endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. He wrote in an email, Clinton is "a strong champion for the American family. ... We are finally moving in the right direction, and Hillary is the right candidate to lead us forward."[67]

    Endorsements

    Republican Party Todd Young

    • The IndyStar - "Young has served Hoosiers well in Congress for the past six years. He also provides a moderate-conservative voice that reflects the views of many Hoosiers and provides a valuable complement to Donnelly, and Young has the ability to grow into the type of effective and thoughtful leader that Coats has typified in his final years in the Senate. The IndyStar Editorial Board endorses Todd Young for U.S. Senate."[68]
    • Northwest Indiana Times - "It's time for a fresh face and ideas in the U.S. Senate, not old vestiges running on name recognition. Young is our best chance for elevating the seat."[69]

    Democratic Party Evan Bayh

    • The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette - "A consensus-builder in a majority-Republican state, Bayh has a pragmatic approach to problem-solving."[71]


    Defeated candidates

    Republican Party Marlin Stutzman

    • Club for Growth - Stutzman "has repeatedly voted to cut bloated federal programs and has voted for conservative budgets that would cut taxes and reduce the size of the federal government."[72]

    Polls

    Indiana Senate- Todd Young vs. Evan Bayh
    Poll Democratic Party Evan Bayh Republican Party Todd YoungMargin of ErrorSample Size
    WISH-TV
    October 10-16, 2016
    49%43%+/-4.8544
    Monmouth University
    October 11-13, 2016
    48%42%+/-4.9402
    WTHR/Howey Politics
    October 3-5, 2016
    42%41%+/-4.0600
    WTHR/Howey Politics
    September 6-8, 2016
    44%40%+/-4.0600
    Monmouth University
    August 13-16, 2016
    48%41%+/-4.9403
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected]

    Media

    Republican Party Todd Young

    Support

    Todd Young Presidential Debate TV ad
    "Green Land 30"
    "YOUNG Chemistry"
    "YOUNG Chicago Style 30 TV" - Ad attacking Stutzman for trying to get Young removed from the ballot
    "One Nation: "Real Threat" IN" - $250,000 ad buy supporting Todd Young
    "Conservative for Indiana: Todd Young" - $500,000 ad buy from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce supporting Todd Young
    "We Can Trust" - Senate Leadership Fund ad supporting Todd Young in April 2016
    "Best Chance" - Young ad attacking Evan Bayh, released July 2016
    "Miss Hit" - Young ad attacking Evan Bayh, released September 2016
    "Changes 30" - One Nation ad supporting Young, released October 2016

    Opposition

    "Flawed" - DSCC ad attacking Young, released July 2016
    "Worker" - Bayh's first ad attacking Young, released August 2016
    "See It" - Senate Majority PAC ad attacking Young, released September 2016
    "Future" - DSCC ad attacking Young, released September 2016
    "Headed South" - Senate Majority PAC ad attacking Young, released October 2016

    Democratic Party Evan Bayh

    Support

    Bayh stresses his bipartisanship in several campaign ads.

    "Work Together" - Bayh's first ad, released July 2016
    "Why" - Bayh's second ad, released July 2016
    "Trade" - Bayh ad, released August 2016
    "Independence" - Bayh ad on his independence from the Democratic Party
    "Fix Healthcare" - Bayh campaign ad, released September 2016
    "21st Century Scholars" - Bayh campaign ad, released September 2016
    " Saved" - Bayh campaign ad, released October 2016

    Opposition

    Opponents attack Bayh for siding with Democratic leaders including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the majority of his votes while in the Senate.

    "Bailout Bayh" - Freedom Partners Action Fund ad attacking Bayh, released July 2016
    "When It Counted" - Senate Leadership Fund ad attacking Bayh, released August 2016
    "Wrong Way" - NRSC ad attacking Bayh, released August 2016
    "Evan Bayh: A deciding vote for Obamacare" - U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad attacking Bayh
    "If Evan Bayh Wins in Indiana, You Can Kiss Your Gun Rights Good-Bayh" - NRA ad
    "Big" - Senate Leadership Fund ad opposing Bayh, released September 2016
    "Betray" - NRSC ad opposing Bayh, released October 2016
    "Sway" - Senate Leadership Fund ad opposing Bayh, released October 2016
    NRA ad opposing Evan Bayh, released October 2016
    "Bailout" - NRSC ad opposing Bayh, released October 2016

    Defeated candidates

    Republican Party Marlin Stutzman

    Support
    "We Need A Farmer" - Marlin Stutzman for Senate
    "Pocket Change" - Marlin Stutzman for Senate
    "Stand Strong" - Marlin Stutzman for Senate
    "Todd Young: Sell Out" - Marlin Stutzman for Senate
    Opposition
    "Works for Him" - Senate Leadership Fund ad attacking Stutzman, released April 2016

    Campaign contributions


    Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.

    Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.

    Todd Young


    Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.

    Evan Bayh

    Although Bayh raised significantly less money than his opponent, he entered the election with over $10 million from his prior tenure in the Senate, giving him a significant financial edge.


    Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.



    BP-Initials-UPDATED.png The finance data shown here comes from the disclosures required of candidates and parties. Depending on the election or state, this may not represent all the funds spent on their behalf. Satellite spending groups may or may not have expended funds related to the candidate or politician on whose page you are reading this disclaimer, and campaign finance data from elections may be incomplete. For elections to federal offices, complete data can be found at the FEC website. Click here for more on federal campaign finance law and here for more on state campaign finance law.


    Presidential impact

    Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm elections.[73] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

    Voter turnout comparison.JPG

    In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 5 Senate seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 seats in the last two midterms.[74] The fact that 2016 was a presidential election cycle was a cause of increased Republican vulnerability in the Senate.

    Election history

    2012

    On November 6, 2012, Joe Donnelly (D) defeated Richard Mourdock (R) and Andy Horning (L) in the general election. The incumbent was Richard Lugar, who lost to Mourdock in the 2012 Republican primary.

    U.S. Senate, Indiana General Election, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Donnelly 50% 1,281,181
         Republican Richard Mourdock 44.3% 1,133,621
         Libertarian Andy Horning 5.7% 145,282
         Independent James Johnson, Jr. 0% 15
         Independent Amy Willis 0% 3
    Total Votes 2,560,102
    Source: Indiana Secretary of State "United States Senate Election Results"

    2010

    On November 2, 2010, Coats won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Brad Ellsworth (D), Rebecca Sink-Burris (L), Jim Miller (I), and Jack Rooney (I) in the general election.[75]

    U.S. Senate, Indiana General Election, 2010
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Coats 54.6% 952,116
         Democratic Brad Ellsworth 40% 697,775
         Libertarian Rebecca Sink-Burris 5.4% 94,330
         Independent Jim Miller 0% 161
         Independent Jack Rooney 0% 99
    Total Votes 1,744,481

    Important dates and deadlines

    See also: Indiana elections, 2016

    The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Indiana in 2016.

    Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016
    Deadline Event type Event description
    January 20, 2016 Campaign finance Annual 2015 campaign finance reports due
    February 2, 2016 Ballot access Deadline for major party candidates for governor and the United States Senate to file petitions with county officials for verification
    February 5, 2016 Ballot access Final filing deadline for major party candidates running in the primary
    April 15, 2016 Campaign finance Pre-primary reports due
    May 3, 2016 Election date Primary election
    June 30, 2016 Ballot access Deadline for independent and minor party candidates to file petitions with county officials for verification
    July 5, 2016 Ballot access Filing deadline for write-in candidates
    July 15, 2016 Ballot access Filing deadline for independent and minor party candidates
    October 21, 2016 Campaign finance Pre-election reports due
    November 8, 2016 Election date General election
    Source: Indiana Election Division, "2016 Indiana Election Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015
    Alaska Public Offices Commission, "APOC Annual Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. Cook Political Report, "2016 Senate Race Ratings," accessed October 19, 2016
    2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," accessed October 19, 2016
    3. Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "Senate Ratings," accessed October 19, 2016
    4. Lucy Brenton for Senate, "Who is Lucy," accessed September 15, 2016
    5. Indiana Secretary of State, "May 3, 2016 Primary Election," accessed February 8, 2016
    6. Indiana Secretary of State, "November 8, 2016 General Election," accessed September 6, 2016
    7. Indianapolis Star, "Baron Hill withdraws from Senate race, likely clearing way for Evan Bayh," July 11, 2016
    8. 8.0 8.1 Indianapolis Star, "Evan Bayh on running for Senate, Indiana residency," July 13, 2016
    9. Indianapolis Star, "Todd Young relies on Marine experience in surprise battle for Senate seat," October 30, 2016
    10. CNN, "Records contradict Bayh’s assertion over staying in Indiana," August 21, 2016
    11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 South Bend Tribune, "Todd Young campaigns in South Bend," accessed September 14, 2016
    12. Indiana General Assembly, "Indiana Code § 3-10-1-6," accessed August 2, 2024
    13. Howey Politics, "Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse," March 24, 2015
    14. Candidates are listed by party and alphabetically within each party.
    15. 15.0 15.1 Indy Star, "Baron Hill withdraws from Senate race, possibly clearing way for Evan Bayh," July 11, 2016
    16. The Hill, "Rep. Marlin Stutzman declares Senate bid," May 9, 2015
    17. Pal-Item, "Young enters crowded GOP primary for Coats’ Senate seat," July 12, 2015
    18. Indy Star, "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat," August 15, 2015
    19. Facebook, "John Dickerson," January 20, 2016
    20. The Hill, "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate," March 24, 2015
    21. Courier & Press, "Holcomb withdraws from U.S. Senate race," February 8, 2016
    22. Email submission to Ballotpedia, September 17, 2015
    23. Indiana Secretary of State, "May 3, 2016 Primary Election," accessed February 8, 2016
    24. Roll Call, "Ousted Democrat Announces Indiana Senate Bid (Updated)," May 15, 2015
    25. 25.0 25.1 25.2 The Washington Post, "AP Exclusive: Job hunt substantial part of Bayh’s last year," accessed October 18, 2016
    26. 26.0 26.1 26.2 The Washington Post, "Liberal groups tell Schumer: No Bayh as Banking chair," accessed October 17, 2016
    27. WNDU.com, "UPDATE: Former President Bush visits Elkhart to boost Todd Young," accessed September 14, 2016
    28. 28.0 28.1 Indy Star, "Todd Young's D.C. 'home' is his Capitol Hill office," accessed October 18, 2016
    29. TriStateHomepage.com, "Rep. Todd Young Criticizes Evan Bayh for Being 'Lifelong Politician,' 'Lobbyist,'" accessed September 14, 2016
    30. CNN, "First on CNN: Bayh's Indiana voting status: Inactive," accessed September 14, 2016
    31. 31.0 31.1 CNN, "Records contradict Bayh's assertion over staying in Indiana," accessed September 14, 2016
    32. 32.0 32.1 32.2 Politico, "Bayh defends Indiana residency," accessed September 14, 2016
    33. Independent Journal Review, "Indiana Senate Candidate Evan Bayh Gets His Own Address Wrong," accessed September 14, 2016
    34. Politico, "Bayh screws up Indiana address during local interview," accessed September 14, 2016
    35. WishTV.com, "Bayh addresses Indiana voting status controversy," accessed September 14, 2016
    36. Fox59.com, "Indiana Democrats select Evan Bayh as nominee for U.S. Senate race," accessed September 14, 2016
    37. Reuters, "Democratic Sen. Bayh won't seek re-election," accessed September 14, 2016
    38. The New York Times, "Why I’m Leaving the Senate," accessed September 14, 2016
    39. South Bend Tribune, "Evan Bayh hits campaign trail in South Bend," accessed September 14, 2016
    40. Indy Star, "Races for U.S. Senate, governor keep Indiana near center of political universe," accessed September 14, 2016
    41. The Washington Post, "Sen. Dan Coats not running for reelection," accessed September 15, 2016
    42. Bloomberg, "Coats Wins Indiana Republican Primary for Bayh’s Senate Seat," accessed September 15, 2016
    43. 43.0 43.1 43.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
    44. Facebook, "Baron Hill," accessed September 14, 2016
    45. 45.0 45.1 Roll Call, "Evan Bayh to Run for Indiana Senate," accessed September 14, 2016
    46. NCB News, "Indiana Democrats Say GOP Candidate Two Vote Shy of Qualifying," February 10, 2016
    47. WFYI, "Stutzman Files Challenge To Young's Candidacy," February 12, 2016
    48. The Journal Gazette, "Young remains on ballot for now," February 20, 2016
    49. The Indiana Lawyer, "Democrats won't challenge Young's candidacy in court," March 14, 2016
    50. The Associated Press, "APNewsBreak: Senate candidate bills campaign for family trip," April 20, 2016
    51. Howey Politics, "Stutzman say chaos, campaign intensity prompted staff change," accessed October 13, 2015
    52. 52.0 52.1 Indy Star, "Young, Bayh spar over trade," accessed October 17, 2016
    53. Evan Bayh for Indiana, "Trade," accessed October 18, 2016
    54. Clerk.House.gov, "On Motion to Concur in Senate Amendment With Amendment," accessed October 5, 2016
    55. Clerk.House.gov Clerk.House.gov, "Concurring in portion of senate amendment preceding title II," accessed October 5, 2016
    56. 56.0 56.1 Kokomo Tribune, "Candidates for US Senate, governor visit Kokomo," accessed October 17, 2016
    57. Lucy Brenton for U.S. Senate, "Issues," accessed October 18, 2016
    58. Americans for Tax Reform, "About the Taxpayer Protection Pledge," accessed October 18, 2016
    59. Americans for Tax Reform, "Pledge Database," accessed October 18, 2016
    60. Real Clear Politics, "Indiana: Trump vs. Clinton," accessed September 18, 2016
    61. The Associated Press, "Senate hopeful won't say if OK with Trump having nuke codes," accessed September 14, 2016
    62. The Times, "Indiana's U.S. Senate race rated 'Toss Up,'" accessed October 17, 2016
    63. Indy Star, "Indiana GOP still coming to terms with Trump," accessed September 14, 2016
    64. 64.0 64.1 64.2 Tribune Star, "Young praises Gold Star family, sidesteps endorsing Trump," accessed September 14, 2016
    65. Politico, "Christie calls Trump criticism of the Khans 'inappropriate,'" accessed September 6, 2016
    66. 66.0 66.1 The Associated Press, "Senate hopeful won't say if OK with Trump having nuke codes," accessed September 14, 2016
    67. NWITimes.com, "Bayh endorses Clinton for president," accessed September 14, 2016
    68. The Indy Star, "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate," accessed November 7, 2016
    69. Northwest Indiana Times, "EDITORIAL: We endorse Visclosky for House, Young for U.S. Senate," October 21, 2016
    70. Indy Star, "U.S. Chamber turns its back on Bayh," August 29, 2016
    71. The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate," accessed November 7, 2016
    72. The Journal Gazette, "Stutzman gets conservative endorsement," July 30, 2015
    73. United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
    74. United States Senate, "Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present," accessed September 6, 2015
    75. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013


    For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!


    Senators
    Representatives
    District 1
    District 2
    District 3
    Jim Banks (R)
    District 4
    Jim Baird (R)
    District 5
    District 6
    District 7
    District 8
    District 9
    Republican Party (9)
    Democratic Party (2)