United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016
November 8, 2016 |
May 3, 2016 |
Todd Young |
Dan Coats |
Cook Political Report: Toss-up[1] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up[2] Rothenberg & Gonzales: Pure Toss-up[3] |
Voters in Indiana elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 8, 2016.
The race for Indiana's Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Todd Young (R) defeated Evan Bayh (D), Lucy Brenton (L), and James Johnson (I) (Write-in) in the general election to win retiring incumbent Dan Coats' (R) Senate seat on November 8, 2016.[4][5][6]
Bayh, a former U.S. Senator, governor of Indiana, and Indiana Secretary of State received major media attention upon his announcement that he was running for the seat he left in 2011. Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, said Bayh’s run “might be the biggest surprise in Senate races this year.”[7]
Bayh said wanted to return to the Senate to address the same issues of partisanship and gridlock that led him to retire, “Things in Washington have only gotten worse, and it grieves me to see what’s happened in our country, the unmet challenges that so many of our families face. I just concluded that I couldn’t stand on the sidelines anymore and needed to do what I could to try and bring us together to meet our challenges.”[8]
Young, who represented Indiana's 9th Congressional District from 2011 to 2017, ran on his background as a former Marine, ‘“I would say more than anything else, this election is about who Hoosiers can trust. It’s about character,” Young said. “Either (voters) place their trust in a Marine who lives here in Indiana … or they place their trust in a career politician who’s cashed out and has an unseemly post-Senate career he doesn’t want to talk about.”[9]
In August 2016, Republicans accused Bayh of not living in Indiana, citing reports that he was listed as an inactive voter by the Indiana Election Division. CNN also reported that public records showed Bayh listed his two Washington, D.C. homes as his places of primary residence instead of his home in Indianapolis.[10]
During a campaign stop, Young said, “What I’m hearing from people across the board is they are frustrated by their elected representatives going to Washington, D.C., and forgetting about Indiana. They believe special interests and Washington lobbyists — like Evan Bayh — are a big part of the problem, and they’re right.”[11]
In response to a question about his homes, Bayh told the Indianapolis Star, “Susan and I spent the last couple of nights at our Indianapolis home, and we like it. If Congressman Young and his allies want to attack me, that’s their decision. I’m going to attack the challenges that face Hoosier families and our country. That’s why I’m running.”[8]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Todd Young | 52.1% | 1,423,991 | |
Democratic | Evan Bayh | 42.4% | 1,158,947 | |
Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 5.5% | 149,481 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0% | 127 | |
Total Votes | 2,732,546 | |||
Source: Indiana Election Division |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Todd Young | 67.1% | 661,136 | ||
Marlin Stutzman | 32.9% | 324,429 | ||
Total Votes | 985,565 | |||
Source: Indiana Secretary of State |
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 congressional races in 2016. Click here to read the full list.
HISTORICAL FACTS | |
Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
---|---|---|
Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Indiana utilizes an open primary system. Voters are not required to register with a party, but state statutes stipulate that citizens vote in the primary of the party they have voted for most often in the past.[12]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Incumbent: The election filled the Class 3 Senate seat held by Dan Coats (R). He was first elected in 2010. Coats officially announced that he would not seek re-election on March 24, 2015.[13]
Election results
General election
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Todd Young | 52.1% | 1,423,991 | |
Democratic | Evan Bayh | 42.4% | 1,158,947 | |
Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 5.5% | 149,481 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0% | 127 | |
Total Votes | 2,732,546 | |||
Source: Indiana Election Division |
Primary election
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Todd Young | 67.1% | 661,136 | ||
Marlin Stutzman | 32.9% | 324,429 | ||
Total Votes | 985,565 | |||
Source: Indiana Secretary of State |
Candidates
General election candidates: Evan Bayh Lucy Brenton James Johnson (Write-in) |
Primary candidates:[14] |
Democratic |
Republican Todd Young - U.S. Rep.[17] |
Withdrew: John Dickerson (D)[18][19] Eric Holcomb (R) - Incumbent Coats' chief of staff[20][21] Kevin Grant[22][23] Baron Hill (D) - Former U.S. Rep.[24][15] |
General election background
Republican coattails
Senator-elect Todd Young benefitted from having President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Trump won 57.2 percent of the vote, while Young won 52.2 percent, a 5.0 percent difference.
A full breakdown of the Republican presidential and Senate races appears below.
*Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races as battleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are from CNN and will be updated after the final results are released.
2016 Republican Presidential and Senate election results | |||
---|---|---|---|
State | Presidential candidate vote % | Senate candidate vote % | Vote % Difference |
Alabama | Donald Trump | Incumbent Richard Shelby | |
Totals | 62.9% | 64.2% | Shelby +1.3% |
Alaska | Donald Trump | Incumbent Lisa Murkowski | |
Totals | 53.3% | 43.8% | Trump +9.5% |
Arizona | Donald Trump | Incumbent John McCain | |
Totals | 49.5% | 53.4% | McCain +3.9% |
Arkansas | Donald Trump | Incumbent John Boozman | |
Totals | 60.4% | 59.8% | Trump +0.6% |
Florida | Donald Trump | Incumbent Marco Rubio | |
Totals | 49.1% | 52.1% | Rubio +3.0% |
Georgia | Donald Trump | Incumbent Johnny Isakson | |
Totals | 51.4% | 55.1% | Isakson +3.7% |
Idaho | Donald Trump | Incumbent Mike Crapo | |
Totals | 59.0% | 66.0% | Crapo +7.0% |
Indiana | Donald Trump | Todd Young | |
Totals | 57.2% | 52.2% | Trump + 5.0% |
Iowa | Donald Trump | Incumbent Chuck Grassley | |
Totals | 51.7% | 60.1% | Grassley +8.4% |
Kansas | Donald Trump | Incumbent Jerry Moran | |
Totals | 57.2% | 62.4% | Moran +5.2% |
Kentucky | Donald Trump | Incumbent Rand Paul | |
Totals | 62.5% | +57.3% | Trump +5.2% |
Louisiana | Donald Trump | Multiple Republican candidates | |
Totals | 58.1% | (Race not called) | - |
Missouri | Donald Trump | Incumbent Roy Blunt | |
Totals | 57.1% | 49.4% | Trump +7.7% |
North Carolina | Donald Trump | Incumbent Richard Burr | |
Totals | 50.5% | 51.1% | Burr +0.6% |
North Dakota | Donald Trump | Incumbent John Hoeven | |
Totals | 64.1% | 78.6% | Hoeven +14.5% |
Ohio | Donald Trump | Incumbent Rob Portman | |
Totals | 52.1% | 58.3% | Portman +6.2% |
Oklahoma | Donald Trump | Incumbent James Lankford | |
Totals | 65.3% | 67.7% | Lankford +2.4% |
Pennsylvania | Donald Trump | Incumbent Pat Toomey | |
Totals | 48.8% | 48.9% | Toomey +0.1% |
South Carolina | Donald Trump | Incumbent Tim Scott | |
Totals | 55.6% | 61.2% | Scott +5.6% |
South Dakota | Donald Trump | Incumbent John Thune | |
Totals | 61.5% | 71.8% | Thune +10.3% |
Utah | Donald Trump | Incumbent Mike Lee | |
Totals | 45.5% | 67.4% | Lee +21.9% |
Wisconsin | Donald Trump | Incumbent Ron Johnson | |
Totals | 47.9% | 50.2% | Johnson +2.3% |
California | Donald Trump | No Republican on the ballot | |
Totals | 33.3% | No Republican on the ballot | - |
Colorado | Donald Trump | Darryl Glenn | |
Totals | 44.8% | 45.8% | Glenn +1.0% |
Connecticut | Donald Trump | Dan Carter | |
Totals | 41.6% | 35.3% | Trump +6.3% |
Hawaii | Donald Trump | John Carroll | |
Totals | 30.1% | 22.2% | Trump +7.9% |
Illinois | Donald Trump | Incumbent Mark Kirk | |
Totals | 39.4% | 40.2% | Kirk +0.8% |
Maryland | Donald Trump | Kathy Szeliga | |
Totals | 35.3% | 36.4% | Szeliga +1.1% |
Nevada | Donald Trump | Joe Heck | |
Totals | 45.5% | 44.7% | Trump +0.8% |
New Hampshire | Donald Trump | Incumbent Kelly Ayotte | |
Totals | 47.2% | 47.9% | Ayotte +0.7% |
New York | Donald Trump | Wendy Long | |
Totals | 37.5% | 27.5% | Trump +10.0% |
Oregon | Donald Trump | Mark Callahan | |
Totals | 41.3% | 33.9% | Trump +7.4% |
Vermont | Donald Trump | Scott Milne | |
Totals | 32.6% | 33.0% | Milne +0.4% |
Washington | Donald Trump | Chris Vance | |
Totals | 37.7% | 39.2% | Vance +1.5% |
Totals | Trump's average win: 55.4% | Republican senators' average win: 58.6% | Republican senators +3.2% |
Bayh’s 2010 job hunt
After obtaining Bayh’s 2010 schedules, The Associated Press found that the former senator was looking for a job in the private sector during his last year in Congress while he was casting “votes on issues of interest to his future corporate bosses.”[25]
According to The Associated Press, “Bayh met and talked repeatedly with headhunters at more than a half-dozen recruiting firms, and with officials at Apollo Global Management, Marathon Oil Co., and three other companies he would work with after his retirement: the McGuireWoods law firm, Leading Authorities, Inc. speaker’s bureau, and the investment firm RLJ Companies. At the same time the Senate was weighing major pieces of legislation, including the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul bill and an extension of the Bush tax cuts, and in some cases Bayh was casting votes that seemed to align with the interests of his future employers.”[25]
It was unclear if Bayh violated Senate Ethics rules, but The AP noted that Bayh failed to file a disclosure about one of his meetings. “According to the schedules, a headhunter named Mike Flood paid for Bayh’s hotel stays on at least two nights, as well as transportation to and around New York City in November 2010. Senate rules say that such expenditures must be disclosed when they top $250, but it does not appear Bayh ever made such a disclosure.”[25]
Senate Banking Committee
Progressive groups, including the Courage Campaign, CPD Action, CREDO Action, Democracy for America, MoveOn.org, New York Communities for Change, Other98, Presente.org, RootsAction.org, and Rootstrikers, sent a letter to presumptive Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) asking him to oppose making Bayh chairman of the Senate Banking Committee if he was elected.[26]
The groups wrote, “The Committee already conspicuously harbors several of the Democratic Caucus’s most conservative, Wall Street-friendly members. … Any attempt to have Evan Bayh installed as chair, or other efforts to appoint members who support the interests of Wall Street above those of the American people, must be opposed. … The financial industry is floating [Bayh’s] name to the media in a brazen, cynical attempt to tilt the Committee’s membership even further toward Wall Street.”[26]
According to The Washington Post, “The letter follows a report in American Banker in August speculating that Bayh, who sat on the Banking Committee from 2000 to 2010, could find himself with more seniority on the panel than current Ranking Member Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) if Bayh returns to the Senate.” The groups wanted to see Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), “a fierce critic of Wall Street,” lead the committee.[26]
President George W. Bush campaigns for Young
Former President George W. Bush appeared at two campaign fundraisers with Young on September 12, 2016. Young said, President Bush “wants to make sure that we have a Republican check and balance against our next president, and if that president should be Hillary Clinton we especially need a Republican check and balance as we consider shaping the future of the U.S. Supreme Court. … This race is becoming very important and that's what brings President Bush here as well, he understands that control of an entire United States Senate could very well come down to the State of Indiana.”[27]
Young chooses to sleep in office
When Young was first elected, he rented an apartment in Washington, D.C., but later decided to sleep in his office instead. He explained the decision, saying, "I found myself retiring after long days to a dark apartment, which was not conducive to doing work or developing relationships with my colleagues. I just decided, seeing as I never intended to put roots down here in Washington, to instead allow my lease to be terminated and do what so many other members of Congress do, which is rest my head at the end of a long day in my office.”[28]
He added that he spends most of his time in Indiana. He said, “The vast majority of my job is, and should be done, in the state of Indiana. If we’re going to make sure that we get our legislation right … we need to actually be spending time with Hoosiers.”[28]
Bayh’s Indiana residence questioned
After he entered the race, Bayh was forced to defend his Indiana residency and his loyalty to the state. On July 11, 2016, Young criticized Bayh for abandoning Indiana after he left the Senate in 2011. Young said, "After he cast the deciding vote for Obamacare, Evan Bayh left Indiana families to fend for themselves so he could cash-in with insurance companies and influence peddlers as a gold-plated lobbyist. This seat isn't the birthright of a wealthy lobbyist from Washington, it belongs to the people of Indiana."[29]
Inactive voter status
In August 2016, the Indiana Election Division listed Bayh as an inactive voter. The state also listed him as an inactive voter in July 2014. According to CNN, Bayh was still a registered voter, but “being considered inactive is the first step from being removed altogether from the voter rolls.”[30]
Bayh’s residence
After reviewing public records since Bayh left the Senate in 2011, CNN reported that the former senator listed Washington, D.C., as his main residence, rather than Indianapolis. Bayh owned two homes in Washington, D.C.—a $2.4 million home in Spring Valley and a $2.9 million home in Georgetown. Bayh claimed Indiana residency because he owned a $59,000 condo in Indianapolis. He also owned a condo in Key Biscayne, Florida.[31][32]
According to CNN, “[W]hen Bayh registered his address -- whether it was on an Alaska fishing license, a donation to Hillary Clinton or on the deed to his beachfront property in Southern Florida -- he listed Washington as his home. Even when Bayh returned back to Indianapolis last summer for an Indiana Democratic Party dinner, he stayed at a JW Marriott just 12 miles away from his condo. A source with Indianapolis Power and Light said Bayh's monthly electric bills averaged less than $20 per month since 2012, suggesting little -- if any -- use at his Indiana condo.”[31]
Bayh defended his loyalty to the state, saying, “I think you can follow me around here, people know me, they know my service. I was representing my state when my opponent was in high school. I mean, I know our state. I love our state. Five generations. I don’t think that’s going to be a compelling issue.”[32]
When Politico asked Bayh “how much of his time he spends in Indiana compared to Washington,” Bayh said, “a lot. I can’t reduce it to a number.”[32]
Bayh gives incorrect Indiana address
On August 20, 2016, amid questions about his Indiana residency, Bayh told a local television station that his address was 1142 C, Canterbury Court in Indianapolis, but his "address is actually Canterbury Square, not Court. The address Bayh told WLFI-TV is located several blocks away from his home address and in the same neighborhood," according to Independent Journal Review.[33][34][35]
Bayh enters race
On July 22, 2016, after national Democrats persuaded Bayh to return to the Senate and Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the race, Bayh announced that he would run for Indiana’s open Senate seat. Bayh announced his entry into the race in the following statement: “Susan and I met with business owners, entrepreneurs, neighbors and friends all across Indiana before tonight’s important step. We listened to their hopes, fears and solutions for the future. They’re concerned about keeping our communities safe, our businesses growing and making sure opportunities like college are affordable for our children. They also expect bipartisanship and compromise to get things done instead of ideology and obstruction. The challenges we face need to be tackled with Indiana common sense and a commitment to putting progress ahead of politics. I’m ready to get to work on winning this campaign, but more importantly, getting to work for Hoosiers.”[36]
Bayh’s reason for leaving the Senate in 2011
Bayh, who served two terms as Indiana’s governor and two terms as a senator from the state, announced in February 2010 that he would not run for re-election. According to Reuters, Bayh said that he wanted to leave the Senate because of partisan discord, the inability of lawmakers to make decisions outside of their “narrow ideology,” and “the kind of bitter politicking that has put President Barack Obama's whole agenda in jeopardy.” Bayh said, "I love helping our citizens make the most of their lives, but I do not love Congress.”[37]
He also published an op-ed explaining his decision to leave Congress, and he offered possible solutions for fixing how Congress and our political culture functions. He wrote, "What is required from members of Congress and the public alike is a new spirit of devotion to the national welfare beyond party or self-interest. In a time of national peril, with our problems compounding, we must remember that more unites us as Americans than divides us."[38]
Bayh commented on his plans for his post-Senate career, saying, "I looked at the next six years, and I thought maybe I can help create jobs in the private sector, maybe I can work at a university helping to educate young people, maybe I can help lead a foundation or a philanthropy that is trying to cure cancer and other major diseases. Those are tangible, real accomplishments that maybe I could help make for people's lives."[39]
Bayh’s post-Senate career
Bayh worked as a partner in McGuireWoods, a law firm in Washington, D.C. Young tried to portray Bayh as a lobbyist, but Bayh said that he was not one. According to The South Bend Tribune, “He has explained that his role at McGuireWoods has been to provide clients with advice, not lobby the government. The firm’s website describes him as ‘a strategic advisor to many of the firm’s most significant clients, particularly those whose business goals are impacted by the actions of Congress, the executive branch, or by governors and legislators across the country.’”[11] Bayh was also a senior adviser in Apollo Global Management, a New York-based private equity firm.[40]
Primary election background
Coats not seeking re-election
On March 24, 2015, Sen. Dan Coats (R) announced that he would not seek re-election, making his seat a highly sought after prize for Republicans who hoped to maintain control of the upper chamber and Democrats who hoped to regain control. Coats said, “Today I am announcing that I will not seek reelection to the United States Senate. This was not an easy decision. While I believe I am well-positioned to run a successful campaign for another six-year term, I have concluded that the time has come to pass this demanding job to the next generation of leaders."[41]
After leaving the Senate in 1999, Coats ran for re-election in 2010 and won Bayh’s seat when Bayh retired from the Senate. Coats previously served in the Senate from 1989 to 1999. He was appointed to the Senate after Indiana Senator Dan Quayle was elected vice president in 1988.[42]
Hill withdraws
In a Facebook post on July 11, 2016, Hill announced that he would exit the Senate race.
“ | I have never run away from tough decisions or tough fights. But, I am a pragmatic person who will always put my country and my state first. I am also a proud Democrat who wants to see an Indiana Democrat fighting for Hoosier families alongside Senator Joe Donnelly in the U.S. Senate. And, I want to do everything in my power to ensure a U.S. Senate that will govern responsibly. That is why, after consulting with my family, my staff and party leaders, I am withdrawing from the U.S. Senate race and removing my name from the November ballot. While our campaign had been making great progress and building momentum all over Indiana, it is simply not enough to fight back against the slew of out-of-state, special interest and dark money that is certain to come our way between now and November. Democrats have a very real chance at winning this Senate seat, especially with a strong nominee who has the money, name identification and resources to win. I do not want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions. In accordance with Indiana law, I have filed the necessary paperwork to withdraw from the race and I have notified Indiana Democratic Party Chairman John Zody. The Indiana Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will now undertake a process to fill the vacancy with a nominee who will win in November. To those of you who have been with me from the very beginning and who have contributed to this campaign or any of my previous campaigns, I cannot thank you enough for the support you have given to Betty and me. We are eternally grateful, and your faith in us will never be forgotten.[43] | ” |
—Baron Hill[44] |
One of the reasons Hill stepped aside was his inability to raise enough money to compete against Young.[45]
Bayh’s statement of Hill’s departure
After Hill announced he was leaving the race, Bayh said in a statement, “Baron Hill has always put Indiana first, and has been focused on setting aside party differences to strengthen our state and country. I share this commitment, and agree with him that the stakes have never been higher. Baron and I have spoken and we both believe that we must send leaders to Washington who will put Hoosiers' interests ahead of any one political party."[45]
Challenge of Young's signatures
The Indiana Democratic Party challenged Young's candidate petitions, claiming that he fell short of the required 500 signatures from Indiana's 1st Congressional District.[46] Following the Democratic Party's challenge, fellow GOP candidate Marlin Stutzman formally challenged Young's petitions as well.[47]
The Indiana Election Commission allowed Young to stay on the ballot, splitting along party lines in a 2-2 vote. Democrats did not challenge the ruling in court. Party chairman John Zody said of the decision, "After thoroughly exploring all options and what is best for our candidates and party moving forward, the Indiana Democratic Party will not pursue legal action."[48][49]
Defeated candidates
Stutzman's personal use of campaign funds
On April 20, 2016, The Associated Press released a story accusing Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) of using campaign funds to pay for a family vacation. Stutzman claimed that the trip to Los Angeles was a campaign expense because his family joined him for several campaign events. He then repaid the money to his campaign fund. The story also claimed that Stutzman's campaign paid roughly $130,000 for airfare and hotels compared to $27,000 spent by Todd Young's (R) campaign during the same time period. Stutzman's campaign manager Josh Kelley said of the claims, "It is irresponsible to imply that Marlin Stutzman has not always done his best to be in compliance with all FEC rules and regulations."[50]
Stutzman campaign
In October 2015, Stutzman's campaign manager, political director, and general consultant all left his campaign. Commenting on the departures, Stutzman said, "It’s what I’ve been looking at for our team and where the political environment is at right now. I thought it was good to have a team that has their finger on the plus of Indiana politics."[51]
Issues
The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal
Bayh and Young both opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which is a trade deal between the United States and 11 Asia-Pacific countries. The deal seeks to promote trade and strengthen the relationships between the 12 nations by reducing and eliminating tariffs, fostering competition, and creating greater opportunities for businesses. The countries involved have also agreed to promote environmental protection practices and enforce laws protecting workers. Congress has not voted on the final agreement.
Free trade deals were of particular importance to Indiana residents because the “air conditioner manufacturer Carrier and an affiliate announced plans to lay off 2,100 Hoosier workers and move production units to Mexico. GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has blasted the decision on the campaign trail, promising to impose steep tariffs on companies that move jobs overseas,” according to the Indy Star.[52]
Bayh opposes TPP
Bayh opposed the TPP because he said it would lead to job losses in Indiana. According to his campaign website, “Indiana’s workers have the skills to compete and succeed against any nation on Earth, but not with our two hands tied behind our back. That’s why Evan opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal that lacks the necessary provisions to protect good-paying Hoosier jobs from being outsourced overseas. Evan believes that before the United States considers or agrees to any new trade deals, we must improve enforcement of our trade laws, including cracking down on currency manipulation and better protecting American ingenuity and Intellectual Property.”[53]
Young opposes TPP
Young voted in favor of giving President Barack Obama trade promotion authority (TPA) to negotiate the TPP, but ultimately said that he could not support the final trade deal. Young said, “I’ve got some real problems with specific provisions in the (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement). I do the responsible thing every legislator would do when you have an opportunity to open up foreign markets to our food, fiber and manufactured goods — which is wait for the debate. But until the intellectual property protections are fixed pertaining to biologics, which would adversely impact Eli Lilly’s model, for example, I’m not prepared to support it.”[54][55][52]
Bayh on tax reform
While speaking at the Indiana Manufacturing Conference in October 2016, Bayh discussed comprehensive corporate tax reform. He said, “The tax rate of 35 percent is just way out of whack with what companies pay in other countries. If we can get that rate down to, let’s say somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 percent, we’ll make ourselves globally competitive, we will eliminate the incentive for many of these large corporations to invert themselves and relocate in Ireland and places like that.”[56]
According to the Kokomo Tribune, "Bayh claimed that if the corporate rate can be lowered, billions of dollars will be made available for an infrastructure initiative for projects related to roads, bridges, airports, rail facilities and more."[56]
Brenton on tax reform
Brenton proposed streamlining the government and eliminating corporate taxes to keep money in the pockets of Indiana's residents. According to her campaign website, "First, we must commit to keeping the government at the absolute minimum size. Too many government agencies are parasites on taxpayers, staffing alphabet soup agencies that are not operating within nor authorized by the Constitution. A streamlined government keeping power here it belongs: in the hands of the people that it serves. Corporate taxes must end. Why? Corporations do NOT pay taxes. They write the check – but only because they first get the money from their customers. It is the customers who pay the taxes. Corporate taxation is only a scheme to mask the transfer of funds to the government."[57]
Young on tax reform
Young signed the Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) Taxpayer Protection Pledge. According to ATR, by signing the pledge, "candidates and incumbents make a written commitment to oppose any and all tax increases. While ATR has the role of promoting and monitoring the Pledge, the Taxpayer Protection Pledge is made to a candidate's constituents, who deserve to know where candidates stand on the tax issue."[58][59]
Young's campaign themes
Young, a retired Marine intelligence officer with counterterrorism training, highlighted his national security credentials on the campaign trail. He said, “I happen to believe we are fighting radical Islamic jihadists right now, and they must be defeated. Collectively, we and our allies and other partners in the region need to develop a coherent, comprehensive strategy to fight and destroy groups like ISIS, using all the instruments of national power — economic, diplomatic and, yes, even military power.”[11]
Young’s other priorities included “addressing how federal regulations and the tax code affect the economy and improving programs to help ‘the poor, the vulnerable and at-risk Americans’ such as the long-term unemployed, foster children and people with disabilities,” according to The South Bend Tribune.[11]
The following issues were listed on Young's campaign website. A full explanation of Young's stance on each issue can be viewed here.
“ |
|
” |
—Todd Young's campaign website, https://toddyoung.org/issues |
Bayh's campaign themes
The following issues were listed on Bayh's campaign website.
“ |
|
” |
—Evan Bayh’s campaign website, http://evanbayhforindiana.com/issues/ |
Presidential preference
Influence of Clinton and Trump
In most battleground races, Republican President Donald Trump was a major presence and influenced the strategies of Republican and Democratic candidates, but he was not a central figure in Indiana. Many vulnerable Republican candidates tried to distance themselves from Trump without alienating his supporters, but Young did not have to deal with this issue, likely because Trump was expected to win Indiana, which he did. Although Young said he supported Trump, he did not campaign with Trump or speak much about him on the campaign trail. A key strategy of many Democrats was to tie congressional Republicans to Trump, but Bayh avoided this strategy. This was one race where ties to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton may have hurt the Democratic Party's chances of taking control of the Senate. Clinton was unpopular in the state, and Bayh’s support for her candidacy may have hurt him on election night.[60][61]
Trump chose Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his running mate. According to Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, "Pence, has united the GOP factions behind the ticket in a normally Republican state, and it benefits the whole Hoosier GOP ticket."[62]
Todd Young
- On May 6, 2016, Young’s campaign manager Trevor Foughty said, “Todd Young has consistently said he intends to support the Republican nominee for president because we cannot have a third term of Barack Obama with Hillary Clinton as our next president.” He did not formally endorse Trump.[63]
- On August 3, 2016, Young did not say whether he would endorse Trump. Instead, he said, “My focus, of course, has been on the United States Senate race, and making sure that we don’t have another four years of these Obama/Clinton policies.”[64]
Young praises Khan family
Young, a retired Marine Corps intelligence officer, expressed his support for Khizr and Ghazala Khan, the parents of fallen United States Army Captain Humayun S. M. Khan. After the Khans criticized Trump during the Democratic National Convention on July 28, 2016, Trump responded by criticizing the Kahns for questioning his knowledge of the U.S. Constitution and suggested that Ghazala Khan did not speak at the convention because of her Islamic faith.[64][65]
On August 3, 2016, Young said, “One of the reasons I served in the Marine Corps was to ensure that regardless of political differences we would honor our servicemen, and one of the reasons that Marines fight is to protect people’s right to have political differences. So my hat goes off to the Khan family, and my heart is with them and certainly my family’s prayers.”[64]
Trump as commander in chief
During an interview on August 29, 2016, when Young, a retired Marine, was asked if he was comfortable with Trump serving as commander in chief, he said, "I'm comfortable with a complete change in direction in our foreign policy, and the Republican nominee has offered that."[66]
Young was then asked if he was comfortable with Trump possessing the nation's nuclear launch codes. He avoided directly answering the question. Instead, “[h]e finally declared that Hillary Clinton has disqualified herself from having a top secret security clearance,” according to The Associated Press. Young added, "Donald Trump has not disqualified himself from getting a top secret security clearance."[66]
Evan Bayh
- See also: Endorsements for Hillary Clinton
- On April 23, 2015, Bayh endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. He wrote in an email, Clinton is "a strong champion for the American family. ... We are finally moving in the right direction, and Hillary is the right candidate to lead us forward."[67]
Endorsements
Todd Young
- The IndyStar - "Young has served Hoosiers well in Congress for the past six years. He also provides a moderate-conservative voice that reflects the views of many Hoosiers and provides a valuable complement to Donnelly, and Young has the ability to grow into the type of effective and thoughtful leader that Coats has typified in his final years in the Senate. The IndyStar Editorial Board endorses Todd Young for U.S. Senate."[68]
- Northwest Indiana Times - "It's time for a fresh face and ideas in the U.S. Senate, not old vestiges running on name recognition. Young is our best chance for elevating the seat."[69]
Evan Bayh
- The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette - "A consensus-builder in a majority-Republican state, Bayh has a pragmatic approach to problem-solving."[71]
Defeated candidates
Marlin Stutzman
- Club for Growth - Stutzman "has repeatedly voted to cut bloated federal programs and has voted for conservative budgets that would cut taxes and reduce the size of the federal government."[72]
Polls
Indiana Senate- Todd Young vs. Evan Bayh | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Evan Bayh | Todd Young | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||||
WISH-TV October 10-16, 2016 | 49% | 43% | +/-4.8 | 544 | |||||||||||||||
Monmouth University October 11-13, 2016 | 48% | 42% | +/-4.9 | 402 | |||||||||||||||
WTHR/Howey Politics October 3-5, 2016 | 42% | 41% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||||
WTHR/Howey Politics September 6-8, 2016 | 44% | 40% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||||
Monmouth University August 13-16, 2016 | 48% | 41% | +/-4.9 | 403 | |||||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected] |
Media
Todd Young
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Evan Bayh
Support
Bayh stresses his bipartisanship in several campaign ads.
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Opposition
Opponents attack Bayh for siding with Democratic leaders including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the majority of his votes while in the Senate.
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Defeated candidates
Marlin Stutzman
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Campaign contributions
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Todd Young
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Evan Bayh
Although Bayh raised significantly less money than his opponent, he entered the election with over $10 million from his prior tenure in the Senate, giving him a significant financial edge.
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
The finance data shown here comes from the disclosures required of candidates and parties. Depending on the election or state, this may not represent all the funds spent on their behalf. Satellite spending groups may or may not have expended funds related to the candidate or politician on whose page you are reading this disclaimer, and campaign finance data from elections may be incomplete. For elections to federal offices, complete data can be found at the FEC website. Click here for more on federal campaign finance law and here for more on state campaign finance law.
Presidential impact
Presidential elections have a significant impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm elections.[73] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.
In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of 5 Senate seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 seats in the last two midterms.[74] The fact that 2016 was a presidential election cycle was a cause of increased Republican vulnerability in the Senate.
Election history
2012
On November 6, 2012, Joe Donnelly (D) defeated Richard Mourdock (R) and Andy Horning (L) in the general election. The incumbent was Richard Lugar, who lost to Mourdock in the 2012 Republican primary.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
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Democratic | Joe Donnelly | 50% | 1,281,181 | |
Republican | Richard Mourdock | 44.3% | 1,133,621 | |
Libertarian | Andy Horning | 5.7% | 145,282 | |
Independent | James Johnson, Jr. | 0% | 15 | |
Independent | Amy Willis | 0% | 3 | |
Total Votes | 2,560,102 | |||
Source: Indiana Secretary of State "United States Senate Election Results" |
2010
On November 2, 2010, Coats won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Brad Ellsworth (D), Rebecca Sink-Burris (L), Jim Miller (I), and Jack Rooney (I) in the general election.[75]
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Indiana elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Indiana in 2016.
Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | ||
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Deadline | Event type | Event description |
January 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | Annual 2015 campaign finance reports due |
February 2, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for major party candidates for governor and the United States Senate to file petitions with county officials for verification |
February 5, 2016 | Ballot access | Final filing deadline for major party candidates running in the primary |
April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary reports due |
May 3, 2016 | Election date | Primary election |
June 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent and minor party candidates to file petitions with county officials for verification |
July 5, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates |
July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent and minor party candidates |
October 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election reports due |
November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election |
Source: Indiana Election Division, "2016 Indiana Election Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015 Alaska Public Offices Commission, "APOC Annual Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015 |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2016
- United States Senate elections, 2016
- Dan Coats
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 Senate Race Ratings," accessed October 19, 2016
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," accessed October 19, 2016
- ↑ Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "Senate Ratings," accessed October 19, 2016
- ↑ Lucy Brenton for Senate, "Who is Lucy," accessed September 15, 2016
- ↑ Indiana Secretary of State, "May 3, 2016 Primary Election," accessed February 8, 2016
- ↑ Indiana Secretary of State, "November 8, 2016 General Election," accessed September 6, 2016
- ↑ Indianapolis Star, "Baron Hill withdraws from Senate race, likely clearing way for Evan Bayh," July 11, 2016
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Indianapolis Star, "Evan Bayh on running for Senate, Indiana residency," July 13, 2016
- ↑ Indianapolis Star, "Todd Young relies on Marine experience in surprise battle for Senate seat," October 30, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Records contradict Bayh’s assertion over staying in Indiana," August 21, 2016
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 South Bend Tribune, "Todd Young campaigns in South Bend," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Indiana General Assembly, "Indiana Code § 3-10-1-6," accessed August 2, 2024
- ↑ Howey Politics, "Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse," March 24, 2015
- ↑ Candidates are listed by party and alphabetically within each party.
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 Indy Star, "Baron Hill withdraws from Senate race, possibly clearing way for Evan Bayh," July 11, 2016
- ↑ The Hill, "Rep. Marlin Stutzman declares Senate bid," May 9, 2015
- ↑ Pal-Item, "Young enters crowded GOP primary for Coats’ Senate seat," July 12, 2015
- ↑ Indy Star, "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat," August 15, 2015
- ↑ Facebook, "John Dickerson," January 20, 2016
- ↑ The Hill, "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate," March 24, 2015
- ↑ Courier & Press, "Holcomb withdraws from U.S. Senate race," February 8, 2016
- ↑ Email submission to Ballotpedia, September 17, 2015
- ↑ Indiana Secretary of State, "May 3, 2016 Primary Election," accessed February 8, 2016
- ↑ Roll Call, "Ousted Democrat Announces Indiana Senate Bid (Updated)," May 15, 2015
- ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 The Washington Post, "AP Exclusive: Job hunt substantial part of Bayh’s last year," accessed October 18, 2016
- ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 The Washington Post, "Liberal groups tell Schumer: No Bayh as Banking chair," accessed October 17, 2016
- ↑ WNDU.com, "UPDATE: Former President Bush visits Elkhart to boost Todd Young," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ 28.0 28.1 Indy Star, "Todd Young's D.C. 'home' is his Capitol Hill office," accessed October 18, 2016
- ↑ TriStateHomepage.com, "Rep. Todd Young Criticizes Evan Bayh for Being 'Lifelong Politician,' 'Lobbyist,'" accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "First on CNN: Bayh's Indiana voting status: Inactive," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ 31.0 31.1 CNN, "Records contradict Bayh's assertion over staying in Indiana," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ 32.0 32.1 32.2 Politico, "Bayh defends Indiana residency," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Independent Journal Review, "Indiana Senate Candidate Evan Bayh Gets His Own Address Wrong," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Bayh screws up Indiana address during local interview," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ WishTV.com, "Bayh addresses Indiana voting status controversy," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Fox59.com, "Indiana Democrats select Evan Bayh as nominee for U.S. Senate race," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Reuters, "Democratic Sen. Bayh won't seek re-election," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Why I’m Leaving the Senate," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ South Bend Tribune, "Evan Bayh hits campaign trail in South Bend," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Indy Star, "Races for U.S. Senate, governor keep Indiana near center of political universe," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Sen. Dan Coats not running for reelection," accessed September 15, 2016
- ↑ Bloomberg, "Coats Wins Indiana Republican Primary for Bayh’s Senate Seat," accessed September 15, 2016
- ↑ 43.0 43.1 43.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Facebook, "Baron Hill," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ 45.0 45.1 Roll Call, "Evan Bayh to Run for Indiana Senate," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ NCB News, "Indiana Democrats Say GOP Candidate Two Vote Shy of Qualifying," February 10, 2016
- ↑ WFYI, "Stutzman Files Challenge To Young's Candidacy," February 12, 2016
- ↑ The Journal Gazette, "Young remains on ballot for now," February 20, 2016
- ↑ The Indiana Lawyer, "Democrats won't challenge Young's candidacy in court," March 14, 2016
- ↑ The Associated Press, "APNewsBreak: Senate candidate bills campaign for family trip," April 20, 2016
- ↑ Howey Politics, "Stutzman say chaos, campaign intensity prompted staff change," accessed October 13, 2015
- ↑ 52.0 52.1 Indy Star, "Young, Bayh spar over trade," accessed October 17, 2016
- ↑ Evan Bayh for Indiana, "Trade," accessed October 18, 2016
- ↑ Clerk.House.gov, "On Motion to Concur in Senate Amendment With Amendment," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Clerk.House.gov Clerk.House.gov, "Concurring in portion of senate amendment preceding title II," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ 56.0 56.1 Kokomo Tribune, "Candidates for US Senate, governor visit Kokomo," accessed October 17, 2016
- ↑ Lucy Brenton for U.S. Senate, "Issues," accessed October 18, 2016
- ↑ Americans for Tax Reform, "About the Taxpayer Protection Pledge," accessed October 18, 2016
- ↑ Americans for Tax Reform, "Pledge Database," accessed October 18, 2016
- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "Indiana: Trump vs. Clinton," accessed September 18, 2016
- ↑ The Associated Press, "Senate hopeful won't say if OK with Trump having nuke codes," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Times, "Indiana's U.S. Senate race rated 'Toss Up,'" accessed October 17, 2016
- ↑ Indy Star, "Indiana GOP still coming to terms with Trump," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ 64.0 64.1 64.2 Tribune Star, "Young praises Gold Star family, sidesteps endorsing Trump," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Christie calls Trump criticism of the Khans 'inappropriate,'" accessed September 6, 2016
- ↑ 66.0 66.1 The Associated Press, "Senate hopeful won't say if OK with Trump having nuke codes," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ NWITimes.com, "Bayh endorses Clinton for president," accessed September 14, 2016
- ↑ The Indy Star, "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate," accessed November 7, 2016
- ↑ Northwest Indiana Times, "EDITORIAL: We endorse Visclosky for House, Young for U.S. Senate," October 21, 2016
- ↑ Indy Star, "U.S. Chamber turns its back on Bayh," August 29, 2016
- ↑ The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate," accessed November 7, 2016
- ↑ The Journal Gazette, "Stutzman gets conservative endorsement," July 30, 2015
- ↑ United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
- ↑ United States Senate, "Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present," accessed September 6, 2015
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
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For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!