Re: Why would they bother?
Russia and China have, at various times, willingly ignored UNCLOS. But then so does the US when it feel like it. Russia has also sent vessels where it definitely shouldn't – one of the reasons why Sweden decided to drop neutrality and join NATO.
But the Baltic has always been like that, at least ever since the days of the Hanseatic League and merchants getting up to shenanigans to protect their trade. Or cripple competitors. Multiple nations sharing an often narrow and shallow sea, all shipping bits, barrels, BTUs or just fish. And those coastal states haven't always been friendly, eg Sweden's invaded both Ukraine and Russia before, so has Finland, along with siding with the Nazis against Russia during WW2. Russia wants to protect their trade routes, Russia's enemies want to restrict trade. Russia sends spy subs, Sweden chases them away. US sends their subs like USS Virginia, Russia chases those away. It's been this way for centuries.
Well, except now things have heated up again, and the West is outright hostile towards Russia, especially little Baltic states like say, Estonia who have become viruently Russophobic recently. So it wouldn't be suprising if Russia is now actively hostile towards the West and working to harm our interests.
I think we may well see more assertive coastguards in action and requests that vessels move away.
That's how it's always supposed to have been and vessels being where they shouldn't, or stopping where they shouldn't get warned away by radio or patrol boats. And again given governments have finally woken up to the risks, this should be happening more frequently. Magic became a suspect because AIS data showed it doing a dougnut, which isn't something you'd normally expect an oil tanker to do. Maybe it was deliberate, may be it developed a fault, we don't know. Or we aren't being told.
Infrastructure in the Baltic is vulnerable though because it's shallow, and restricted. Cables (or pipes) are especially vulnerable if they're crossing shipping lanes, so normally they're buried and protected with matting, concrete etc to try and stop them being damaged. But currents or ship movements overhead might scour that away and expose the cable. I once read a paper examing different burial techniques and risks and if concrete was a good or bad thing in shallow waters. So risks might increase if cables end up rubbing against exposed concrete or rebar when a deep draughted vessel passes overhead and the prop wash swirls things about a bit.
But that can be the nature of the job. Maintenance vessel goes to the location of the (first) break (not 'rupture') identified by OTDR, sends down an ROV to take a look and take pictures/video. Then ROV might cut the cable, or lift severed ends to the surface. Or the ship uses cutting & grappling anchors to do that, then cable is spliced back together and cable lowered back. If it needs re-burial and re-armoring, that's more complicated and takes longer. But priority is restoration, not finger pointing. And I don't envy the teams working these jobs given TPTB will be looking for evidence if it was accidental or sabotage. And then insurers may also be looking to see if it was a protection failure and deny claims.
It's one of those strange and very specialised bits of the telecomms industry that keeps all the bits flowing. Also plug for the Porthcurno museum if you want to learn more.
When it comes to navies, it's one of the few areas where Europe really does have the edge over Russia, especially with Finland and Sweden onboard.
Maybe, although we'll know TSHTF when their naval bases start smoking. Or there's other scope for shenanigans, ie there's terrestrial fibre routes into Russia via Finland and other Baltic states, so maybe those will have 'accidents'.
Sweden and Finland are now treating the events as sabotage, so you can shut down your smoke cannon.
Or they're operating the smoke cannon. Sabotage, or suspected sabotage? Again I wouldn't hold my breath given the EU still doesn't know who committed the biggest act of sabotage in the EU's history. It's one of those propaganda problems. If there is evidence, show it or prove it. This is the simplest way to prevent 'misinformation' and conspiracy theories. Cables were cut here, cause was vessel X dragging its anchor. Fines and prosecutions to follow.
Russia is definitely probing and provoking to see whether and how the West reacts.
It doesn't really need to given Russia operates cable landing stations, is part of the cable maintenance consortia responsible for repair & maintenance of cables, especially in their own territorial waters. And then on the sneaky side, it's had a long tradition of submarines and submersibles that have inspected cables that don't belong to Russia.. And we've done/do exactly the same thing. But currently in the absence of evidence, it's all just speculation and the risk of politicians & the media losing credibility by crying wolf.. Again.
(On the media side, there's good evidence of churnalism and multiple media outlets just running the same story. So the graphic showing the 'rupture', which is the wrong term.)
Biting the hand that feeds IT
