Measuring Competence Is Epistemic Hell
Our ancestors weren’t stupid. They were trying to find some kind of logical progression of cause-and-effect, but they lived in epistemic hell. This is why cargo-cult programming exists. This is why urban legends persist. This is why parents simply want their children to do as they say. This is why we have youtubers chastising NASA for not reading their own Apollo 11 postmortem. This is why corporate procedures emphasize checking boxes instead of critically examining the problem. When your cause-and-effect chain is a hundred steps long and caused by something 5 years ago, economic pressure incentivizes simply trying to avoid blame instead of trying to find the actual systemic problem. The farther up the chain of management a problem is, the longer it takes for the effects to be felt, and the worse we get at finding the root cause. Software engineering has the same issue, where incompetence may only cause performance issues years later, after the original coder has left, and the system has scaled up beyond a critical breaking point. This is why we still don’t know how to hire programmers.