Lean Development and the Predictability Paradox
The best way to achieve predictable software development outcomes is to start early, learn constantly, commit late, and deliver fast. This may seem to cut against the grain of conventional project management practice, which is supposed to give more managed, predictable results. But predictability is a funny thing; you cannot build with confidence on a shifting foundation. The problem with conventional approaches is that they assume the foundation is firm; they have little tolerance for change.
The paradox is that trying too hard to create predictability creates the opposite effect. Conventional practices are fragile in the face of change, and even in the face of learning. And yet, the more complex the system, the more necessary learning becomes. What is needed is an approach that encourages learning, and does not commit until learning is complete.
...The paradox of lean development is that you have to give up some of the trappings of predictability in order to get true predictability. You have to abandon some conventional wisdom to gain the benefits of making decisions with more certainty. Fundamentally, you have to develop the capability to respond to events as they unfold, rather than hold dear the capability to orchestrate events in advance.