Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022 →
← 2018
Washington's 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 15, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Dan Newhouse (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Poll opening hours vary; close at 8 p.m. (most voting done by mail)
Voting in Washington
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Washington's 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th
Washington elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Washington, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Dan Newhouse won election in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 15, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Dan Newhouse, who was first elected in 2014.

Washington's 4th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Adams, Benton, Franklin, Grant, Okanogan, and Yakima counties and parts of Douglas and Walla Walla counties.[2]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Washington's 4th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 39.6 33.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 57.8 66.2
Difference 18.2 32.6

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Washington did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 4

Incumbent Dan Newhouse defeated Doug McKinley in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 4 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
66.2
 
202,108
Image of Doug McKinley
Doug McKinley (D)
 
33.6
 
102,667
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
488

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 305,263
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 4

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House Washington District 4 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
57.4
 
101,539
✔
Image of Doug McKinley
Doug McKinley (D)
 
26.2
 
46,471
Image of Sarena Sloot
Sarena Sloot (R) Candidate Connection
 
6.7
 
11,823
Image of Tracy Wright
Tracy Wright (R) Candidate Connection
 
5.1
 
9,088
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Ryan Cooper (L)
 
2.3
 
4,080
Image of Evan Jones
Evan Jones (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
2.2
 
3,816
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
228

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 177,045
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 39 Washington counties—12.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Clallam County, Washington 2.76% 0.38% 3.30%
Cowlitz County, Washington 13.32% 4.44% 11.15%
Grays Harbor County, Washington 6.99% 14.11% 14.56%
Mason County, Washington 5.81% 7.09% 8.66%
Pacific County, Washington 6.74% 11.52% 14.07%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Washington with 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Washington cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Washington supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state favored Democrats in every election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Washington. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 30 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 32.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Washington's 4th Congressional District the 99th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Dan Newhouse Republican Party $1,184,750 $1,002,461 $299,719 As of December 31, 2020
Doug McKinley Democratic Party $61,816 $58,326 $3,491 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]

Race ratings: Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 4th Congressional District candidates in Washington in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Washington, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Washington 4th Congressional District All candidates N/A N/A $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 5/15/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 4

Incumbent Dan Newhouse defeated Christine Brown in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
62.8
 
141,551
Image of Christine Brown
Christine Brown (D)
 
37.2
 
83,785

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 225,336
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 4

Incumbent Dan Newhouse and Christine Brown advanced from the primary for U.S. House Washington District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
63.2
 
77,203
✔
Image of Christine Brown
Christine Brown (D)
 
36.8
 
44,868

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 122,071
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Dan Newhouse (R) defeated Clint Didier (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Newhouse and Didier defeated Doug McKinley (D), John Malan (D), and Glenn Jakeman (R) in the top-two primary on August 2, 2016.[11][12]

U.S. House, Washington District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Newhouse Incumbent 57.6% 132,517
     Republican Clint Didier 42.4% 97,402
Total Votes 229,919
Source: Washington Secretary of State


U.S. House, Washington District 4 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Newhouse Incumbent 45.8% 44,720
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngClint Didier 27.5% 26,892
     Democratic Doug McKinley 22.2% 21,678
     Democratic John Malan 2.4% 2,320
     Republican Glenn Jakeman 2.1% 2,090
Total Votes 97,700
Source: Washington Secretary of State

2014

See also: Washington's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Washington held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Dan Newhouse (R) defeated Clint Didier (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Washington District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Clint Didier 49.2% 75,307
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Newhouse 50.8% 77,772
Total Votes 153,079
Source: Washington Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Washington is a vote-by-mail state. Early voting dates and polling hours apply to county-level vote centers where individuals can instead vote in person.
  2. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  11. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Unofficial List of Candidates in Ballot Order," accessed May 23, 2016
  12. ↑ Politico, "Washington House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016


Washington's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Maria Cantwell (D)
Patty Murray (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
Democratic Party (10)
Republican Party (2)


v • e
2019-2020 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona (special) • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia (special) • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
v • e
Ballotpedia
About
Editorial Content
Geoff Pallay, Director of Editorial Content and Editor-in-Chief • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Daniel Anderson, Managing Editor • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor • Cory Eucalitto, Managing Editor • Mandy Gillip, Managing Editor • Doug Kronaizl, Local Elections Project Manager • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Thomas Ellis • Frank Festa • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Hosea • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Nathan Maxwell • Ellie Mikus • Jackie Mitchell • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Maddie Sinclair Johnson • Abbey Smith • Janie Valentine • Joel Williams • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox • Mercedes Yanora
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Washington%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2020&oldid=8519731"