U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2020
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November 3, 2020 |
Last updated: January 26, 2021
Elections for 35 U.S. Senate seats took place in 2020.[1] Democrats won control of the U.S. Senate in the 2020 elections, winning a net three seats.
Ballotpedia identified 16 races as general election battlegrounds. Of the 16 seats, four had Democratic incumbents and 12 had Republican incumbents heading into the election.
These battleground seats were selected by examining the results of the 2016 presidential election in the state, whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, and whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in the Senate. Race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales were also considered. For more information on our methodology, click here.
At the time of the election, the Republican Party had a 53-seat Senate majority, while Democrats had 45 seats. There were also two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The following are some factors that could influence the outcome of the 2020 Senate elections:
- Republicans were defending 23 seats while Democrats were defending 12. The greater number of Republican seats up for election made the GOP more vulnerable to losing seats than Democrats.
- Both parties were defending two states each where the opposite party's presidential candidate won in 2016.
- Republicans were defending seven seats in states with Democratic governors, while Democrats were defending three seats in states with Republican governors.
In 2018, Ballotpedia identified 16 U.S. Senate battleground races: 11 Democratic seats and five Republican seats. Democrats won two of the Republican-held seats, and Republicans won four of the Democratic-held seats. To read more about the 2018 battleground races, click here.
Battleground list
The following map displays the 2020 Senate battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Hover over a state for more information.
| Battleground U.S. Senate elections, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent | Open seat? | 2014 margin | 2016 presidential margin | 2020 election result | |
| Alabama |  Doug Jones |
No | R+94.5 | R+27.7 | R+20.4 | |
| Arizona (special) |  Martha McSally |
No | R+13.0[2] | R+3.5 | D+2.4 | |
| Colorado | Cory Gardner |
No | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | D+9.3 | |
| Georgia | David Perdue |
No | R+7.7 | R+5.2 | D+1.2 | |
| Georgia (special) | Kelly Loeffler |
No | R+13.8[3] | R+5.2 | D+2.0 | |
| Iowa | Joni Ernst |
No | R+8.3 | R+9.4 | R+6.5 | |
| Kansas | Pat Roberts |
Yes | R+10.6 | R+20.6 | R+11.4 | |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell |
No | R+15.5 | R+29.8 | R+19.6 | |
| Maine | Susan Collins |
No | R+36.2 | D+3.0 | R+8.6 | |
| Michigan | Gary Peters |
No | D+13.3 | R+0.2 | D+1.7 | |
| Minnesota | Tina Smith |
No | D+10.2 | D+1.5 | D+5.2 | |
| Montana | Steve Daines |
No | R+17.7 | R+20.5 | R+10.0 | |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen |
No | D+3.2 | D+0.4 | D+15.6 | |
| North Carolina | Thom Tillis |
No | R+1.6 | R+3.7 | R+1.8 | |
| South Carolina | Lindsey Graham |
No | R+17.7 | R+14.2 | R+10.2 | |
| Texas | John Cornyn |
No | R+27.2 | R+9.0 | R+9.6 | |
Race ratings
The following table compares the most recent race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. The following table compared U.S. Senate race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2020 elections.
Presidential and gubernatorial data
The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2020 Senate race. These trends can be used as an indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2020 elections.
- There were two states with a Democratic incumbent that Trump won in 2016: Alabama and Michigan. There were also two states with a Republican incumbent that Clinton won in 2016: Colorado and Maine.
- There were seven states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor: Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina. There were three states with a Democratic incumbent and a Republican governor: Alabama, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire.
- There were two states which Barack Obama (D) carried in 2008 and 2012 and Donald Trump (R) carried in 2016: Iowa and Michigan. There were no states which were carried by a Republican in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and by Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016.
Change log
This section lists every change that was made to our battleground list since we published the page in July 2019.
- September 11, 2020: Removed the elections in Alaska and New Mexico from the list.
- July 6, 2020: Added the election in South Carolina to the list.
- January 3, 2020: Added the election in Alaska to the list.
- August 30, 2019: Added the special election in Georgia to the list.
- July 16, 2019: Published initial version of the page with 15 battlegrounds.[4]
2018 battlegrounds
- See also: U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 51-47 majority in the chamber and the remaining two were held by independents who caucused with the Democratic Party.
- Democrats were defending 26 seats, including two held by independents, while Republicans were defending nine seats. The Democratic Party was at a disadvantage relative to the Republican Party, regardless of political climate.
- The Democratic Party had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while Republicans had to defend one seat in a state won by Clinton over Trump in 2016. These states made up the majority of those considered to be battlegrounds in 2018.
- There were 13 states with a Democratic incumbent that had a Republican governor but no states with a Republican incumbent and a Democratic governor.
The map and chart below highlight the states with battleground elections in 2018 and whether the seat changed party hands.
The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.
| Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent | Winner | Partisan change | Incumbent status |
| Arizona | Jeff Flake |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Yes | Incumbent didn't seek re-election |
| California | Dianne Feinstein |
Dianne Feinstein |
No | Won |
| Florida | Bill Nelson |
Rick Scott |
Yes | Lost |
| Indiana | Joe Donnelly |
Mike Braun |
Yes | Lost |
| Minnesota (special) | Tina Smith |
Tina Smith |
No | Won |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill |
Josh Hawley |
Yes | Lost |
| Mississippi (special) | Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Cindy Hyde-Smith |
No | Won |
| Montana | Jon Tester |
Jon Tester |
No | Won |
| North Dakota | Heidi Heitkamp |
Kevin Cramer |
Yes | Lost |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez |
Bob Menendez |
No | Won |
| New Mexico | Martin Heinrich |
Martin Heinrich |
No | Won |
| Nevada | Dean Heller |
Jacky Rosen |
Yes | Lost |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown |
Sherrod Brown |
No | Won |
| Tennessee | Bob Corker |
Marsha Blackburn |
No | Incumbent didn't seek re-election |
| Texas | Ted Cruz |
Ted Cruz |
No | Won |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin |
Joe Manchin |
No | Won |
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2020
- United States Senate elections, 2020
- United States Senate
- Battlegrounds
Footnotes
- ↑ This figure includes 33 seats up for regular election and two seats up for special election.
- ↑ This seat was last up for regular election in 2016. Incumbent John McCain (R) won re-election by a margin of 13.0 percent.
- ↑ This seat was last up for regular election in 2016. Incumbent Johnny Isakson (R) won re-election by a margin of 13.8 percent.
- ↑ The initial battlegrounds list included the regularly-scheduled elections in Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Texas, as well as the special election in Arizona.
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