United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2020

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Montana's At-Large Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 9, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Montana's At-Large Congressional District
U.S. Senate • At-large
Montana elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives election in Montana took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's one at-large congressional district.

Matt Rosendale defeated Kathleen Williams in the general election for U.S. House Montana At-large District on November 3, 2020.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 9, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


The national campaign arms of both major parties focused on Montana's At-Large Congressional District. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee listed the District as one of its targets in 2020, naming Williams (D) a Red to Blue candidate.[1] The National Republican Congressional Committee named Rosendale (R) one of its Young Gun candidates.[2]

Rosendale, the incumbent state auditor, advanced to the general election after defeating five other candidates including Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (R). Rosendale received 48 percent of the vote followed by Stapleton with 33 percent. No other candidate received more than 10 percent of the vote. In the Democratic primary, Williams, the 2018 Democratic nominee for U.S. House, defeated state Rep. Tom Winter (D), receiving 89 percent of the vote to Winter's 11 percent. Gibney (G) did not face a contested primary. At the time of the primary, Democrats held a 233-196 majority in the U.S. House.

In the most recent election for the seat, Williams faced incumbent U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) in the general election for the at-large seat. Gianforte defeated Williams 50.9% to 46.2%, the seat's narrowest margin of victory since 2000 when Denny Rehberg (R) defeated Nancy Keenan (D) 51.5% to 46.2%. Gianforte did not seek re-election to the U.S. House, leaving the seat open.

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Montana's At-Large Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 40.6 43.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 56.9 56.4
Difference 16.3 12.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Montana modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Counties were authorized to conduct the general election entirely by mail.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Partisan breakdown

Heading into the November 3 election, the Republican Party held the At-Large Congressional District seat from Montana.

Members of the U.S. House from Montana -- Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2020 After the 2020 Election
     Democratic Party 0 0
     Republican Party 1 1
Total 1 1

Incumbents

Heading into the 2020 election, the incumbent for the one at-large congressional district was:

Name Party District
Greg Gianforte Ends.png Republican 1

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Matt Rosendale defeated Kathleen Williams in the general election for U.S. House Montana At-large District on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale (R)
 
56.4
 
339,169
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams (D)
 
43.6
 
262,340

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 601,509
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Kathleen Williams defeated Tom Winter in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams
 
89.5
 
133,436
Image of Tom Winter
Tom Winter
 
10.5
 
15,698

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 149,134
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Matt Rosendale
Matt Rosendale
 
48.3
 
104,575
Image of Corey Stapleton
Corey Stapleton
 
33.2
 
71,902
Image of Debra Lamm
Debra Lamm
 
6.7
 
14,462
Image of Joe Dooling
Joe Dooling
 
6.3
 
13,726
Image of Mark McGinley
Mark McGinley Candidate Connection
 
3.6
 
7,818
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
John Evankovich
 
1.8
 
3,983

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 216,466
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

John Gibney advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
John Gibney
 
100.0
 
690

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 690
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 56 Montana counties—5.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Blaine County, Montana 2.46% 15.32% 19.24%
Hill County, Montana 17.18% 3.50% 12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana 6.49% 15.58% 26.27%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Montana with 56.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 35.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, Montana voted Republican 65.6 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Montana voted Republican all five times.[3]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Montana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 17.2 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Montana with an average margin of victory of 34.7 points. Trump won 14 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Montana's At-Large Congressional District the 128th most Republican nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kathleen Williams Democratic Party $6,332,417 $6,362,945 $6,430 As of December 31, 2020
Matt Rosendale Republican Party $4,034,800 $3,848,140 $262,839 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Montana's At-large Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for At-large District candidates in Montana in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Montana At-large District Qualified party N/A N/A $1,740.00 Percentage of annual salary 3/9/2020 Source
Montana At-large District Unaffiliated 12,833 5% of total votes cast for successful candidate in the last general election N/A N/A 6/1/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: United States House of Representatives election in Montana, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Incumbent Greg Gianforte defeated Kathleen Williams and Elinor Swanson in the general election for U.S. House Montana At-large District on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte (R)
 
50.9
 
256,661
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams (D) Candidate Connection
 
46.2
 
233,284
Image of Elinor Swanson
Elinor Swanson (L)
 
2.9
 
14,476

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 504,421
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kathleen Williams
Kathleen Williams Candidate Connection
 
33.5
 
37,513
Image of John Heenan
John Heenan
 
31.7
 
35,480
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Grant Kier
 
24.2
 
27,025
Image of Lynda Moss
Lynda Moss
 
5.1
 
5,667
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
John Meyer Candidate Connection
 
3.3
 
3,740
Image of Jared Pettinato
Jared Pettinato
 
2.2
 
2,472

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 111,897
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District

Incumbent Greg Gianforte advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Montana At-large District on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Gianforte
Greg Gianforte
 
100.0
 
136,372

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 136,372
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2017

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District special election, 2017
U.S. House, Montana At-Large Special Election, 2017
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGreg Gianforte 50% 190,520
     Democratic Rob Quist 44.4% 169,214
     Libertarian Mark Wicks 5.7% 21,682
Total Votes 381,416
Source: Montana Secretary of State

The election was held to replace Ryan Zinke (R), who was confirmed as secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior on March 1, 2017.[12]

Republican Greg Gianforte defeated Democrat Rob Quist and Libertarian Mark Wicks, earning more than 50 percent of the vote. Gianforte was sworn in as a member of the United States House of Representatives on June 21, 2017.[13]

Primary elections were not held in the race. Instead, party leaders chose the nominees at conventions. Democrats selected musician Rob Quist at the party's convention on March 5, 2017, while Republicans nominated businessman Greg Gianforte at the party's convention on March 6, 2017. A third candidate, Libertarian Mark Wicks, was also on the ballot.[14][15][16][17]

Ballotpedia compiled the following resources to help voters better understand the policy positions of the candidates prior to the general election on May 25, 2017:

Although Montana's At-Large District seat was held by a Republican continuously from 1997, with former incumbent Ryan Zinke winning election in 2014 and 2016 by roughly 15 points, the race garnered significant national attention and fundraising. In the final week of the election alone, Quist announced that he had received $1 million, bringing his total campaign contributions to $6 million. The pro-Democrat House Majority PAC also spent $125,000 on ad buys for the election's final week. Outside organizations backing Gianforte like the Congressional Leadership Fund have spent $7 million on ad buys—approximately $4 million more than Democratic outside groups.[18][19]

On May 24, 2017, the eve of the election, Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault after he allegedly slammed a reporter to the ground and punched him. The Gianforte campaign refuted the reporter's account in a statement.[20][21]

2016

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Ryan Zinke (R) defeated Denise Juneau (D) and Rick Breckenridge (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.[22]

U.S. House, Montana's At-Large District General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Zinke Incumbent 56.2% 285,358
     Democratic Denise Juneau 40.5% 205,919
     Libertarian Rick Breckenridge 3.3% 16,554
Total Votes 507,831
Source: Montana Secretary of State

2014

See also: Montana's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2014

The At-Large Congressional District of Montana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Ryan Zinke (R) defeated John Lewis (D) and Mike Fellows (Montana) (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Montana's At-Large District General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRyan Zinke 55.4% 203,871
     Democratic John Lewis 40.4% 148,690
     Libertarian Mike Fellows 4.2% 15,402
Total Votes 367,963
Source: Montana Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC website, "DCCC Chair Bustos Adds Six Candidates To DCCC ‘Red To Blue’ Program," May 28, 2020
  2. ↑ Rosendale's 2020 campaign website, "MATT ROSENDALE RECEIVES DESIGNATION AS AN NRCC ‘YOUNG GUN,'" May 27, 2020
  3. ↑ 270towin.com, "Montana," accessed June 29, 2017
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ The Washington Post, "Trump taps Montana congressman Ryan Zinke as interior secretary," December 13, 2016
  13. ↑ The Billings Gazette, "Gianforte set to take oath as Montana's next congressman," June 15, 2017
  14. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Democrats, Republicans plan for special election to replace Zinke," December 15, 2016
  15. ↑ KTVH, "Bullock sets soonest possible date for special election," March 1, 2017
  16. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Montana Democrats pick musician Rob Quist to run for U.S. House," March 5, 2017
  17. ↑ Billings Gazette, "Greg Gianforte wins Republican nomination for Montana's U.S. House election," March 6, 2017
  18. ↑ Politico, "Republicans: Montana special election 'closer than it should be,'" May 24, 2017
  19. ↑ The Hill, "GOP, Dems put more money into Montana special election," May 3, 2017
  20. ↑ KULR, "U.S. House candidate Greg Gianforte charged with misdemeanor assault," May 25, 2017
  21. ↑ KTVQ, "Greg Gianforte accused of body slamming reporter," May 24, 2017
  22. ↑ Montana Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate Filing List: Non-Legislative," accessed March 15, 2016
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