United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): N/A
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 19
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 2 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: April 6, 2020 |
| Primary: June 9, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Kelly Armstrong (R) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in North Dakota |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
At-large North Dakota elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
The 2020 U.S. House of Representatives election in North Dakota took place on November 3, 2020. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's one at-large congressional district.
Incumbent Kelly Armstrong won election in the general election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Kelly Armstrong, who was first elected in 2018.
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
31.9 | 27.6 |
Republican candidate  |
65.5 | 69 |
| Difference | 33.6 | 41.4 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
North Dakota did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Partisan breakdown
Heading into the November 3 election, the Republican Party held the At-Large Congressional District seat from North Dakota.
| Members of the U.S. House from North Dakota -- Partisan Breakdown | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 2020 | After the 2020 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 0 | 0 | |
| Republican Party | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 1 | 1 | |
Incumbents
Heading into the 2020 election, the incumbent for the one at-large congressional district were:
| Name | Party | District |
|---|---|---|
| Kelly Armstrong |  Republican |
1 |
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Incumbent Kelly Armstrong defeated Zach Raknerud and Steven Peterson in the general election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Kelly Armstrong (R) | 69.0 | 245,229 |
 | Zach Raknerud (D)  | 27.6 | 97,970 | |
 | Steven Peterson (L) | 3.4 | 12,024 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.1 | 375 | ||
| Total votes: 355,598 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Matthew Austin Gullo (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Zach Raknerud defeated Roland Riemers in the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 9, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Zach Raknerud | 62.0 | 21,394 |
 | Roland Riemers | 37.0 | 12,747 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 1.0 | 346 | ||
| Total votes: 34,487 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Incumbent Kelly Armstrong advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 9, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Kelly Armstrong | 99.5 | 99,582 |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.5 | 461 | ||
| Total votes: 100,043 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Steven Peterson advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 9, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Steven Peterson | 78.5 | 729 |
| Other/Write-in votes | 21.5 | 200 | ||
| Total votes: 929 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Benson County, North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% | ||||
| Ransom County, North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% | ||||
| Sargent County, North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% | ||||
| Steele County, North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.[1]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 25.25% | 72.44% | R+47.2 | 15.70% | 77.60% | R+61.9 | R |
| 2 | 23.50% | 74.04% | R+50.5 | 12.81% | 81.65% | R+68.8 | R |
| 3 | 34.53% | 62.62% | R+28.1 | 20.28% | 69.79% | R+49.5 | R |
| 4 | 44.65% | 53.30% | R+8.7 | 31.23% | 62.19% | R+31 | R |
| 5 | 35.04% | 62.99% | R+27.9 | 25.32% | 65.85% | R+40.5 | R |
| 6 | 33.60% | 64.02% | R+30.4 | 19.03% | 73.86% | R+54.8 | R |
| 7 | 28.93% | 68.80% | R+39.9 | 18.95% | 74.05% | R+55.1 | R |
| 8 | 28.39% | 69.14% | R+40.7 | 16.17% | 78.39% | R+62.2 | R |
| 9 | 73.98% | 24.10% | D+49.9 | 57.16% | 33.14% | D+24 | D |
| 10 | 40.63% | 56.80% | R+16.2 | 23.79% | 68.63% | R+44.8 | R |
| 11 | 54.52% | 42.92% | D+11.6 | 47.09% | 42.67% | D+4.4 | D |
| 12 | 40.44% | 56.89% | R+16.5 | 28.16% | 63.38% | R+35.2 | R |
| 13 | 45.20% | 52.76% | R+7.6 | 36.60% | 54.96% | R+18.4 | R |
| 14 | 30.67% | 67.01% | R+36.3 | 19.04% | 74.40% | R+55.4 | R |
| 15 | 43.56% | 53.45% | R+9.9 | 28.47% | 62.14% | R+33.7 | R |
| 16 | 50.78% | 45.95% | D+4.8 | 40.22% | 49.41% | R+9.2 | R |
| 17 | 43.28% | 54.92% | R+11.6 | 36.93% | 56.05% | R+19.1 | R |
| 18 | 55.25% | 41.99% | D+13.3 | 39.68% | 50.13% | R+10.4 | D |
| 19 | 38.30% | 59.10% | R+20.8 | 23.98% | 68.23% | R+44.3 | R |
| 20 | 43.84% | 53.94% | R+10.1 | 28.99% | 61.73% | R+32.7 | D |
| 21 | 58.10% | 37.73% | D+20.4 | 49.24% | 38.72% | D+10.5 | D |
| 22 | 39.93% | 57.89% | R+18 | 30.35% | 60.24% | R+29.9 | R |
| 23 | 48.91% | 48.94% | R+0 | 34.28% | 57.80% | R+23.5 | R |
| 24 | 45.51% | 52.18% | R+6.7 | 30.90% | 59.19% | R+28.3 | R |
| 25 | 41.58% | 56.58% | R+15 | 27.20% | 64.26% | R+37.1 | D |
| 26 | 47.28% | 50.58% | R+3.3 | 30.77% | 59.94% | R+29.2 | R |
| 27 | 43.92% | 53.66% | R+9.7 | 38.23% | 51.62% | R+13.4 | R |
| 28 | 25.69% | 71.88% | R+46.2 | 14.18% | 80.31% | R+66.1 | R |
| 29 | 34.32% | 63.27% | R+28.9 | 20.98% | 72.76% | R+51.8 | R |
| 30 | 34.36% | 63.38% | R+29 | 23.14% | 69.35% | R+46.2 | R |
| 31 | 37.63% | 60.06% | R+22.4 | 24.35% | 68.30% | R+44 | R |
| 32 | 37.65% | 59.45% | R+21.8 | 26.56% | 64.60% | R+38 | R |
| 33 | 26.89% | 70.44% | R+43.6 | 13.37% | 81.32% | R+68 | R |
| 34 | 36.69% | 60.28% | R+23.6 | 23.55% | 67.65% | R+44.1 | R |
| 35 | 37.72% | 59.56% | R+21.8 | 29.88% | 60.59% | R+30.7 | R |
| 36 | 21.01% | 77.00% | R+56 | 11.33% | 83.81% | R+72.5 | R |
| 37 | 26.51% | 71.55% | R+45 | 16.67% | 77.64% | R+61 | R |
| 38 | 30.15% | 67.72% | R+37.6 | 19.59% | 72.28% | R+52.7 | R |
| 39 | 19.92% | 78.02% | R+58.1 | 11.09% | 83.49% | R+72.4 | R |
| 40 | 35.42% | 61.14% | R+25.7 | 25.35% | 63.05% | R+37.7 | R |
| 41 | 42.55% | 55.38% | R+12.8 | 39.53% | 51.32% | R+11.8 | R |
| 42 | 49.85% | 46.46% | D+3.4 | 39.58% | 49.50% | R+9.9 | R |
| 43 | 49.24% | 48.50% | D+0.7 | 41.62% | 50.35% | R+8.7 | R |
| 44 | 52.26% | 44.96% | D+7.3 | 46.38% | 42.62% | D+3.8 | D |
| 45 | 44.75% | 52.72% | R+8 | 35.95% | 54.29% | R+18.3 | R |
| 46 | 45.62% | 52.35% | R+6.7 | 41.96% | 49.55% | R+7.6 | R |
| 47 | 30.74% | 67.39% | R+36.7 | 25.59% | 67.63% | R+42 | R |
| Total | 38.92% | 58.66% | R+19.7 | 27.74% | 64.15% | R+36.4 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+16, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District the 70th most Republican nationally.[4]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[5]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Armstrong | Republican Party | $1,273,005 | $1,083,764 | $305,708 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Zach Raknerud | Democratic Party | $28,328 | $26,310 | $2,285 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Steven Peterson | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]
| Race ratings: North Dakota's At-large Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Candidate ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in North Dakota in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in North Dakota, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| North Dakota | At-large District | Recognized party | 300 | Fixed number | N/A | N/A | 4/6/2020 | Source |
| North Dakota | At-large District | Unaffiliated | 1,000 | Fixed number | N/A | N/A | 8/31/2020 | Source |
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Kelly Armstrong defeated Mac Schneider and Charles Tuttle in the general election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Kelly Armstrong (R) | 60.2 | 193,568 |
 | Mac Schneider (D) | 35.6 | 114,377 | |
 | Charles Tuttle (Independent) | 4.1 | 13,066 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 521 | ||
| Total votes: 321,532 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Mac Schneider advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Mac Schneider | 100.0 | 33,727 |
| Total votes: 33,727 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Ben W. Hanson (D)
- John Grabinger (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Kelly Armstrong defeated Tom Campbell, Tiffany Abentroth, and Paul Schaffner in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Kelly Armstrong | 56.3 | 37,364 |
 | Tom Campbell | 26.9 | 17,861 | |
 | Tiffany Abentroth | 8.9 | 5,921 | |
| Paul Schaffner | 7.9 | 5,243 | ||
| Total votes: 66,389 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) defeated Chase Iron Eyes (D) and Jack Seaman (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.[10]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Kevin Cramer Incumbent |
69.1% | 233,980 | |
| Democratic | Chase Iron Eyes | 23.7% | 80,377 | |
| Libertarian | Jack Seaman | 7% | 23,528 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.2% | 574 | |
| Total Votes | 338,459 | |||
| Source: North Dakota Secretary of State | ||||
2014
The At-Large Congressional District of North Dakota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) defeated George B. Sinner (D) and Jack Seaman (L) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kevin Cramer Incumbent |
55.5% | 138,100 | |
| Democratic | George B. Sinner | 38.5% | 95,678 | |
| Libertarian | Jack Seaman | 5.8% | 14,531 | |
| Write-in | Write-in candidates | 0.1% | 361 | |
| Total Votes | 248,670 | |||
| Source: North Dakota Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
- List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2020
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- Democratic Party battleground primaries, 2020
- Republican Party battleground primaries, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ North Dakota Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed April 12, 2016
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