Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
62.8
 
141,551
Image of Christine Brown
Christine Brown (D)
 
37.2
 
83,785

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 225,336
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Washington's 4th Congressional District
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Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 18, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Dan Newhouse (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Washington
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Washington's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th
Washington elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Washington, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Dan Newhouse (R), who was first elected in 2014.

Washington's 4th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Adams, Benton, Franklin, Grant, Okanogan, and Yakima counties and parts of Douglas and Walla Walla counties.[1]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 4

Incumbent Dan Newhouse defeated Christine Brown in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
62.8
 
141,551
Image of Christine Brown
Christine Brown (D)
 
37.2
 
83,785

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 225,336
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 4

Incumbent Dan Newhouse and Christine Brown advanced from the primary for U.S. House Washington District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Newhouse
Dan Newhouse (R)
 
63.2
 
77,203
✔
Image of Christine Brown
Christine Brown (D)
 
36.8
 
44,868

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 122,071
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Washington's 4th Congressional District the 99th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Dan Newhouse Republican Party $1,155,668 $1,077,766 $117,430 As of December 31, 2018
Christine Brown Democratic Party $475,862 $467,396 $8,466 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history

2016

See also: Washington's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Dan Newhouse (R) defeated Clint Didier (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Newhouse and Didier defeated Doug McKinley (D), John Malan (D), and Glenn Jakeman (R) in the top-two primary on August 2, 2016.[4][5]

U.S. House, Washington District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Newhouse Incumbent 57.6% 132,517
     Republican Clint Didier 42.4% 97,402
Total Votes 229,919
Source: Washington Secretary of State


U.S. House, Washington District 4 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Newhouse Incumbent 45.8% 44,720
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngClint Didier 27.5% 26,892
     Democratic Doug McKinley 22.2% 21,678
     Democratic John Malan 2.4% 2,320
     Republican Glenn Jakeman 2.1% 2,090
Total Votes 97,700
Source: Washington Secretary of State

2014

See also: Washington's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Washington held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Dan Newhouse (R) defeated Clint Didier (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Washington District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Clint Didier 49.2% 75,307
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDan Newhouse 50.8% 77,772
Total Votes 153,079
Source: Washington Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 39 Washington counties—12.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Clallam County, Washington 2.76% 0.38% 3.30%
Cowlitz County, Washington 13.32% 4.44% 11.15%
Grays Harbor County, Washington 6.99% 14.11% 14.56%
Mason County, Washington 5.81% 7.09% 8.66%
Pacific County, Washington 6.74% 11.52% 14.07%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Washington with 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Washington cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Washington supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state favored Democrats in every election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Washington. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 30 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 32.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Washington heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Washington State Legislature. They had a 50-48 majority in the state House and a 26-23 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Washington was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democrats controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Washington elections, 2018

Washington held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Washington
 WashingtonU.S.
Total population:7,160,290316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):66,4563,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:3.6%12.6%
Asian:7.7%5.1%
Native American:1.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.6%0.2%
Two or more:5.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:12%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:90.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,062$53,889
Persons below poverty level:14.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Washington.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Washington's three largest cities were Seattle (pop. est. 724,745), Spokane (pop. est. 217,108), and Tacoma (pop. est. 213,418).[8][9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Washington from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Washington Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Washington every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Washington 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 54.3% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.1% 16.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 41.2% 10.0%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party John McCain 40.5% 17.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 52.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.6% 7.2%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.6% 5.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Washington from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Washington 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Patty Murray 59.0% Republican Party Chris Vance 40.1% 18.9%
2012 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 60.4% Republican Party Michael Baumgartner 39.5% 20.9%
2010 Democratic Party Patty Murray 52.4% Republican Party Dino Rossi 47.6% 4.8%
2006 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 56.9% Republican Party Michael McGavick 39.9% 17.0%
2004 Democratic Party Patty Murray 55.0% Republican Party George R. Nethercutt, Jr. 44.7% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 48.7% Republican Party Slade Gorton 48.6% 0.1%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Washington.

Election results (Governor), Washington 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Jay Inslee 54.4% Republican Party Bill Bryant 45.6% 8.8%
2012 Democratic Party Jay Inslee 51.5% Republican Party Rob McKenna 48.6% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Christine Gregoire 53.2% Republican Party Dino Rossi 46.8% 6.4%
2004 Democratic Party Christine Gregoire 48.9% Republican Party Dino Rossi 48.9% 0.0%
2000 Democratic Party Gary Locke 58.4% Republican Party John Carlson 39.7% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Washington in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Washington 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 4 40% Democratic Party 6 60% D+2
2014 Republican Party 4 40% Democratic Party 6 60% D+2
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2008 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2004 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2002 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2000 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Washington Party Control: 1992-2024
Eighteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R D D D D R R D D D D R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R[10] D D D D D D D
House D D D R R R R S S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Unofficial List of Candidates in Ballot Order," accessed May 23, 2016
  5. ↑ Politico, "Washington House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  8. ↑ Washington Demographics, "Washington Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  9. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Washington," accessed December 11, 2017
  10. ↑ Democrats gained full control of the state Senate after a special election on November 7, 2017.
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