Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: August 6, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Tim Burchett (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by county
Voting in Tennessee
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Tennessee elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Tennessee, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Tim Burchett won election in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
August 6, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Tim Burchett, who was first elected in 2018. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.

Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District is located in the northeastern portion of the state and includes Blount, Claiborne, Grainger, Knox, and Loudon counties as well as portions of Campbell and Jefferson counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 34.5 31.1
Republican candidate Republican Party 63.6 67.6
Difference 29.1 36.5

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Tennessee modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures and voter identification rules for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Individuals "with a special vulnerability to COVID-19" and "caretakers for individuals with a special vulnerability to COVID-19" were deemed to meet the existing statutory criteria for absentee voting eligibility. A law requiring first-time voters to vote in person was temporarily suspended.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

Incumbent Tim Burchett defeated Renee Hoyos, Matthew Campbell, Ronald Cornell Jr., and David Dockery in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett (R)
 
67.6
 
238,907
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos (D) Candidate Connection
 
31.1
 
109,684
Matthew Campbell (Independent)
 
1.3
 
4,592
Ronald Cornell Jr. (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
7
David Dockery (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
7

Total votes: 353,197
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

Renee Hoyos defeated Chance Brown in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on August 6, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos Candidate Connection
 
87.1
 
30,287
Image of Chance Brown
Chance Brown Candidate Connection
 
12.9
 
4,479

Total votes: 34,766
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

Incumbent Tim Burchett advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on August 6, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett
 
100.0
 
78,990

Total votes: 78,990
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 95 Tennessee counties—1 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Hardeman County, Tennessee 7.92% 5.91% 6.18%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Tennessee with 60.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 34.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Tennessee cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Tennessee supported Democratic candidates for president and Republican candidates equally. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Tennessee. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns show the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns show the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 50.7 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 22 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 79 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 77 out of 99 state House districts in Tennessee with an average margin of victory of 43.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+20, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 20 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District the 34th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tim Burchett Republican Party $1,347,006 $889,218 $593,678 As of December 31, 2020
Renee Hoyos Democratic Party $815,388 $819,397 $210 As of December 31, 2020
Matthew Campbell Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Ronald Cornell Jr. Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
David Dockery Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Tennessee in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Tennessee, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Tennessee 2nd Congressional District All candidates 25 Fixed number N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett (R)
 
65.9
 
172,856
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos (D) Candidate Connection
 
33.1
 
86,668
Greg Samples (Independent)
 
0.4
 
967
Image of Jeffrey Grunau
Jeffrey Grunau (Independent)
 
0.3
 
657
Image of Marc Whitmire
Marc Whitmire (Independent)
 
0.2
 
637
Keith LaTorre (Independent)
 
0.1
 
349

Total votes: 262,134
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

Renee Hoyos defeated Joshua Williams and Joseph Schenkenfelder in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Renee Hoyos
Renee Hoyos Candidate Connection
 
72.4
 
22,220
Image of Joshua Williams
Joshua Williams
 
23.1
 
7,077
Image of Joseph Schenkenfelder
Joseph Schenkenfelder
 
4.5
 
1,383

Total votes: 30,680
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Tennessee District 2 on August 2, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tim Burchett
Tim Burchett
 
48.2
 
47,875
Image of Jimmy Matlock
Jimmy Matlock
 
36.1
 
35,855
Ashley Nickloes
 
11.0
 
10,961
Image of Jason Emert
Jason Emert
 
2.3
 
2,305
Image of Hank Hamblin
Hank Hamblin
 
0.9
 
855
Image of Vito Sagliano
Vito Sagliano Candidate Connection
 
0.8
 
844
Image of C. David Stansberry
C. David Stansberry
 
0.7
 
657

Total votes: 99,352
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Duncan, Jr. (R) defeated Stuart Starr (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, Tennessee District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Duncan, Jr. Incumbent 75.6% 212,455
     Democratic Stuart Starr 24.4% 68,401
Total Votes 280,856
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State

2014

See also: Tennessee's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

Incumbent John J. Duncan, Jr. won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated Bob Scott (D), Green Party candidate Norris Dryer and independent Casey Gouge in the general election.

U.S. House, Tennessee District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn J. Duncan, Jr. Incumbent 72.5% 120,853
     Democratic Bob Scott 22.6% 37,599
     Green Norris Dryer 2.4% 4,033
     Independent Casey Gouge 2.5% 4,222
Total Votes 166,707
Source: Tennessee Secretary of State Vote totals above are unofficial and will be updated once official totals are made available.

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
John Rose (R)
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (10)
Democratic Party (1)