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Cardinals “In The Market” For Late-Inning Relief Help

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The Cardinals are “in the market” for a setup reliever who can help replace right-hander Andrew Kittredge near the back of their bullpen after he hit free agency back in November, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

It’s not necessarily surprising that the Cardinals would have interest in adding to their bullpen. Aside from the void left by Kittredge in the late innings, closer Ryan Helsley has found his name in the rumor mill frequently this winter. While all signs point to the club keeping him in the fold for at least the start of the 2025 season, the addition of a veteran reliever with experience in the late innings could provide cover for St. Louis that would allow them to more seriously weigh dealing Helsley in the event that they receive the sort of overwhelming offer that would compel them to reconsider their stance. While the loss of Helsley would be a tough blow for the club’s bullpen regardless of what pitcher (or pitchers) they add to their relief corps this winter, it would certainly be easier for the Cards to attempt to stay competitive in 2025 without Helsley in the fold if they have an experienced veteran who could step into the closer’s role in Helsley’s stead.

The more likely scenario, of course, is that the club will stick with its apparent plan to retain Helsley headed into the season. Even in that case, however, it’s easy to see why the club would want to bolster its bullpen as a way to keep Helsley firmly in his current role as the club’s closer. 2024 was the first year of Helsley’s career where he was utilized exclusively in the ninth inning or later, and he responded with a 206 ERA+ and an MLB-best 49 saves. Goold suggests that the steady presence of Kittredge, who posted a 2.80 ERA and collected 37 holds with the Cardinals last year, was a key part of the reason the Cardinals were able to be more judicious in their deployment of Helsley in comparison to years’ past.

As much sense as it could make for the Cardinals to add at least one veteran reliever to their bullpen this winter, it’s a path that isn’t without obstacles. It’s been made abundantly clear through a number of reports and even president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s comments this winter that lowering payroll is a priority for St. Louis this winter. The most obvious way to do that, and the Cardinals’ clear preference, is to find a trade partner for Nolan Arenado. Recent reporting has suggested a quiet market for Arenado ever since a potential deal with the Astros last month fell through, however, and for his part Goold indicates that the Cardinals may be best served waiting out fellow third baseman Alex Bregman’s market given the potential for overlapping suitors between the two infielders.

With no public indications that Bregman is especially close to signing, that could mean the Cardinals will need to wait for quite some time before they can seriously consider adding more payroll of real significance. Fortunately for St. Louis, the relief market has been very slow moving this winter with Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi García standing out as the only players to sign for more than $10MM to this point in that corner of the market. Whether the Cardinals would be interested in playing in that mid-tier of the relief market will surely depend on how much (if any) of Arenado’s contract they manage to move, as well as whether or not they part ways with hurlers like Steven Matz and Erick Fedde this winter after both starters garnered interest earlier this winter. Even if Matz or Fedde is moved, Goold suggests that the club could consider circling back to veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson rather than signing a pricier relief arm like David Robertson.

Given the slow pace of the relief market this winter, the Cardinals should still have a good amount of flexibility to make an addition to their bullpen whenever their payroll situation is properly resolved. Goold speculatively suggests former Rangers righty José Leclerc as a potential fit for the Cards, and players like Kyle Finnegan, Chris Martin, and Paul Sewald are among a handful of other options for late-inning veterans who could feasibly be had on one-year deals—as is a reunion with Kittredge himself. Each of those options will surely secure a reasonably healthy big league guarantee, however, and if the Cardinals find themselves unable to move any of their pricey veterans on the trade market it’s possible they won’t have interest in adding that sort of salary. In that case, Héctor Neris, Scott Barlow, and Joe Kelly are a handful of the veteran relievers with late-inning experience coming off difficult seasons in 2024 who could be available for a club on a tight budget like St. Louis.

Which Teams Can Still Use Nolan Arenado?

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The Cardinals expected to have traded Nolan Arenado by now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested at the Winter Meetings that a deal could come together within a week or two. That probably would've been the case had the eight-time All-Star not used his no-trade clause to kill talks about a move to the Astros.

That leaves St. Louis in an awkward position. They've publicly shopped Arenado. He's seemingly amenable to waiving his no-trade clause in certain circumstances. For whatever reason, he wasn't interested in going to Houston last month. Subsequent reporting indicated he could consider the Astros in the future, but the team moved on to Christian Walker almost immediately and no longer needs a corner infielder. The Cardinals need to look elsewhere.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic reported this week that there's been minimal traction on an Arenado trade since the Houston talks collapsed. The Yankees, long a speculative fit, are apparently not as interested as it first seemed. The YES Network's Jack Curry pushed back against that notion last week. Jon Heyman also suggested in a Bleacher Report live stream yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to stick with DJ LeMahieu than to go after Arenado.

Where does that leave Mozeliak and company?

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Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Several teams don’t publicize contract details for their top front office executives or even for their managers, so this list of skipper and execs (any head of a baseball operations department, whether titled as a president of baseball ops, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) entering the final year of their deals may not be entirely complete or accurate.  Still, since MLBTR so often focuses on players entering their “contract year,” this post provides a rough outline of which notable team personnel may be feeling some extra pressure as their own deals may be close to expiring.

It is quite possible some of these names may have already quietly signed extensions weeks or months ago, or will sign new deals during Spring Training once clubs turn their attention away from offseason roster-building.  A shorter-term extension may not necessarily indicate much extra job security, as some teams tack an extra year (or at least a club option) onto an executive or managerial contract just to avoid the appearance of that person entering a lame-duck year.  Of course, even a longer contract is no guarantee of job security, as a rough season can instantly put a manager or a front office on the hot seat.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Ron Washington is already heading into the final season under contract, as he signed only a two-year deal to manage the Halos in November 2023.  While the Angels were only 63-99 last season, it could hardly be considered Washington’s fault given the subpar state of the roster.  Expectations will be higher in 2025 since the team has been aggressing in adding talent this winter, and since GM Perry Minasian got a contract extension last August, Los Angeles might also look to add a year onto Washington’s deal to at least keep him on line with the guaranteed portion of Minasian’s new contract.  It should be noted that Washington turns 73 this coming April, so he might also prefer to just take things year-to-year if he has any thoughts about retirement.

Astros: Dana Brown is entering his third season as Houston’s GM, and the terms of his contract weren’t made public when he was hired in January 2023.  It is possible Brown might only be working on a three-year deal since his predecessor James Click also received just a three-year commitment, though Click was hired in the singular aftermath of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  This probably isn’t a situation to monitor too closely since the Astros have kept winning during Brown’s tenure, with the caveat that owner Jim Crane and his advisors are known to weigh heavily on baseball operations decisions.  Click was let go within days of winning a World Series due to reported acrimony with Crane, but there hasn’t been any indication of any heat between Crane and Brown.

Athletics: Mark Kotsay’s initial contract covered the 2022-24 seasons, and the A’s picked up Kotsay’s 2025 club option over a year ago.  GM David Forst said in October that “there’s no one I would rather have managing this team,” and that Kotsay “wants to be here,” though there hasn’t been any public word about any extension talks.  As comfortable as Kotsay seems with the organization, it is possible he might be willing to let the season play out and then explore his options, if he has any uncertainty over continuing to manage the A’s through their stint in West Sacramento before their planned move to Las Vegas for the 2028 season.  While no public details were revealed about Forst’s latest contract, the GM has obviously signed some kind of extension since his last deal expired after the 2023 season, and said in November that “I’ve been here for 25 years.  There’s not a thought that I wouldn’t be in this for the long run.”

Blue Jays: Manager John Schneider is entering the last guaranteed season of his three-year contract, as the Blue Jays hold a club option on Schneider for 2026.  It is fair to guess that the Jays might not exercise that option too far in advance, as there is widespread speculation that another disappointing season (or even a slow start) will cost Schneider his job.  The same could be true of general manager Ross Atkins, even though Atkins is under contract through 2026.  Team president Mark Shapiro is also entering the final season of his five-year contract, and while Shapiro’s focus has been more towards bigger-picture projects like Rogers Centre’s renovations, his possible departure might also trigger a larger overhaul unless the Jays turn things around on the field in 2025.

Braves: Manager Brian Snitker is entering the last year of his contract, so the Braves might well look to tack at least one more season onto Snitker’s deal this spring.  Snitker has led Atlanta to the postseason in each of the last seven seasons, highlighted by the team’s World Series victory in 2021.  He has stuck to just shorter-term deals and extensions during his tenure, which is probably due more to his age (Snitker turned 69 in October) than any dissatisfaction on the organization’s part, so no change seems imminent in the Braves dugout.

Cardinals: John Mozeliak’s exit plan is already in place.  The longtime head of the St. Louis front office is stepping down after the 2025 season, with Chaim Bloom already inked to a long-term contract to become the Cardinals’ next president of baseball operations.

Cubs: The Cubs have posted 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons, but they still haven’t reached the postseason during Jed Hoyer’s four-year tenure as president of baseball operations.  2025 is the last year of Hoyer’s original five-year contract, and acquiring Kyle Tucker (who is a free agent next winter) in a big-ticket trade might indicate that Hoyer is feeling some heat to win as soon as possible.  It can be argued that Hoyer has been somewhat hamstrung by ownership’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market, but that might also indicate that ownership could be considering hiring a PBO with more experience in building contenders on limited budgets.

Dodgers: Reports surfaced earlier today that the Dodgers are planning to work out an extension with Dave Roberts, as the skipper is entering the last season of his last three-year extension with the club.  It comes as no surprise that L.A. wants to retain Roberts in the wake of the team’s second World Series title during his tenure, and it stands to reason that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is also a candidate for a new deal, perhaps regardless of the terms of his last agreement.  Friedman came to the Dodgers on a five-year deal in October 2014, then signed an extension of an unknown length in November 2019.  If that next contract was another five-year pact, Friedman is a technically free agent right now, but there has no zero indication that Friedman (who has been as busy as ever in bolstering the Dodgers roster this winter) is going anywhere.

Guardians: This is a speculative entry since it has been well over a decade since Chris Antonetti’s contract terms were publicly reported.  Even if he is approaching the end of his current deal, there hasn’t been any sense that the Guardians are planning a front office change, especially not in the wake of another AL Central crown and a trip to the ALCS.  Antonetti has been a member of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and in his current role as president of baseball operations since October 2015.

Mariners: Jerry Dipoto has been extended twice since the M’s first hired him in September 2015, and his last extension in September 2021 was a multi-year deal of unspecified length.  It is therefore possible this could be Dipoto’s final season under contract as Seattle’s president of baseball operations, unless another extension has been signed in the last three-plus years.  Despite four straight seasons of 85 or more wins, the Mariners reached the playoffs just once in that span, as a lack of hitting has hampered the team over the last two years in particular.  It remains to be seen if ownership is okay with just being competitive (or, as Dipoto infamously put it, winning “54 percent of the time“) or if any impatience is growing over the Mariners’ difficulty in truly breaking through as a contender.  The Mariners were sparked to a 21-13 record down the stretch after manager Dan Wilson was hired last August, so it could be that the managerial change (and a change of hitting coaches) is what was needed to get the M’s back on track, but Dipoto and Wilson could both face pressure if Seattle again falls short of postseason baseball.

Orioles: Mike Elias has been Baltimore’s GM for six seasons, though his contract terms haven’t been made public at any point during his tenure.  Manager Brandon Hyde signed a three-year deal when first hired prior to the 2019 season, and he has signed at least one or perhaps two extensions since, leaving his contract status a bit of a mystery.  This is another situation where job security probably isn’t an issue, as the Orioles have come out of their rebuild to reach the playoffs in back-to-back years, even if the club has yet to record even a single postseason win in that span.  New owner David Rubenstein is eager to win but hasn’t shown any inclination to changing the leadership structure since he bought the Orioles earlier this year.

Pirates: Ben Cherington has now completed five full seasons as the Buccos’ general manager, so he either signed a somewhat unusually long contract when first hired, or he has already inked one extension that has escaped public attention.  Pittsburgh fans are impatiently waiting for the first winning season of Cherington’s tenure, as the team has flirted with contention in each of the last two years before finishing with identical 76-86 records.  Paul Skenes has at least emerged as the crown jewel of the Pirates’ lengthy rebuild process, so regardless of Cherington’s contract terms, it doesn’t appear as though he is in any danger of being fired.

Rangers: Bruce Bochy’s return to managing saw him sign a three-year contract with Texas, so 2025 represents the final year of that deal.  Bochy turns 70 in April but didn’t give any hints about retiring when speaking to reporters at the end of the season.  A second straight losing season might change the equation either on Bochy’s end or on the front office’s end, but the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title (to say nothing of Bochy’s three previous rings as the Giants’ manager) has naturally brought him a lot of leeway within the organization.  Both sides might prefer to go year-to-year just to maintain flexibility, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Bochy soon gets another year added to his contract.

Rockies: Bud Black has signed three straight one-year extensions to remain as Colorado’s manager, and past reports have indicated that Black is on something of an unofficial year-to-year rolling contract with the organization.  It is perhaps notable that Black’s most recent deal wasn’t finalized until this past October, whereas his previous two extensions were completed prior to the start of the seasons.  This might indicate that ownership and/or Black himself are starting to think harder about continuing the relationship in the wake of six straight losing seasons, even despite the Rockies’ well-known penchant for staying loyal to long-term employees.  The same logic could extend to GM Bill Schmidt, though Schmidt’s contract terms haven’t been known since he was elevated to the full-time general manager position in October 2021.

Royals: Matt Quatraro is entering the final guaranteed year of his initial three-year contract as manager, though the Royals have a club option on his services for the 2026 season.  J.J. Picollo has also completed two full seasons as the team’s general manager since being elevated to top of Kansas City’s baseball ops ladder in September 2022, though his contract status in the wake of that promotion wasn’t known.  Regardless, it doesn’t seem like either is going anywhere, and extensions could be in order since the Royals enjoyed an 86-win season and a return to the playoffs last year, including a wild card series win over the Orioles.

Tigers: Likewise, Detroit is also coming off a playoff appearance and a wild card series victory, as a magical late-season surge left the Tigers just one game short of the ALCS.  It is therefore safe to assume that president of baseball operations Scott Harris has plenty of job security, and while his contract terms aren’t known, it is probably safe to assume Harris received more than a three-year guarantee when he was hired in September 2022.

Twins: Some larger-scale changes could be afoot in Minnesota since the Pohlad family is exploring selling the Twins, and some shuffling in the front office has already taken place, with president of baseball ops Derek Falvey also becoming the president of business operations and Jeremy Zoll replacing Thad Levine as general manager.  Falvey’s previous deal was up after the 2024 season so obviously he signed an extension, but while manager Rocco Baldelli’s previous extension is known to have run through at least the end of the 2025 campaign, it is unclear if the coming season is the final year of that deal.  If Baldelli is indeed heading into a lame-duck year, the ownership situation might prevent the skipper from getting at least another season added to his deal, just so a new owner could potentially have a clean slate in evaluating things once they take over the team.

White Sox: This is more of a speculative entry, just because Chris Getz’s contract terms weren’t released when he was named Chicago’s general manager in August 2023.  A GM wouldn’t normally be considered to be on the hot seat so soon after being hired, nor are immediate results expected since the White Sox are quite obviously going through a hefty rebuild.  While nobody expected the Sox to contend in 2024, however, there’s a difference between just being a losing team and having a league-record 121 losses.  Another embarrassment of a season might give owner Jerry Reinsdorf second thoughts about Getz’s stewardship of the rebuild effort, or the possibility exists that Reinsdorf could sell the team, which should shake the organization up entirely.

Yankees: Aaron Boone quieted some of his critics when the Yankees both returned to the postseason, and captured the first AL pennant of Boone’s seven-year stint as the Bronx manager.  This result led the Yankees to exercise their club option on Boone’s services for 2025, and while no negotiations had taken place about a longer-term deal as of early November, it stands to reason that some talks will take place before Opening Day.  Then again, Boone’s current deal wasn’t signed until after he’d already completed the final season his previous contract, so it could be that the Yankees will again play wait-and-see.  There isn’t much sense that Boone is in jeopardy, and while expectations are always high in New York, ownership’s loyalty to Boone through some relative lean years would make it unusual if he was let go so soon after a World Series appearance.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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It has been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed deal that would’ve seen the veteran third baseman go from the Cardinals to the Astros.  The next step in the Cards’ efforts to trade Arenado remain unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report that “there has been minimal traction on Arenado’s front since the Astros deal fell through.”

The lack of activity isn’t exactly surprising given how many factors complicate any potential deal.  The Rockies are covering $10MM of the remaining $74MM owed to Arenado over the last three years of his contract, and some deferred money involved in the contract reportedly makes Arenado’s remaining salary worth $60MM in present-day money.  That’s still a big chunk of change that the Cardinals are looking to mostly shed from their payroll, leaving a fairly limited number of possible suitors who have both payroll space and a need at third base.

To the latter point, Arenado has indicated a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe told reporters during the Winter Meetings.  Arenado is ultimately in the driver’s seat in these negotiations due to his no-trade protection, and past reports have indicated that he would okay a deal to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, though it appears this list of preferred destinations is somewhat fluid.

In fact, Houston was on an initial version of that list, as Woo and Chandler Rome wrote earlier this month.  The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker just a few days before the proposed Arenado trade reportedly gave him pause about going to Houston, which is why he invoked his no-trade clause at the time.  However, the door wasn’t entirely closed on a potential deal, as Sammon and Woo write that Arenado “was willing to revisit the Astros after further clarity developed in his market (namely, Alex Bregman signing).”

The Astros ended up moving on from both Arenado and Bregman, as they instead signed Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, thus pushing Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal with the Cubs) across the diamond as the new regular third baseman.  Even with his former team now out of the running, Bregman is still garnering plenty of interest, as such clubs as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets have all been linked to him this winter.  Reports have been somewhat mixed about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman, as the primary hold-up in Arenado’s case being New York’s unwillingness to take on the bulk of his remaining salary.

The overlap between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s reported trade preference list is likely why Arenado’s situation hasn’t much changed in the last couple of weeks, as it might take Bregman signing to spark renewed interest in teams returning to trade talks with the Cardinals.  If Arenado can’t be traded at all, St. Louis could simply bring him back for the coming season and perhaps explore deals later — even as early as the trade deadline, as a hot start from Arenado could help erase any worries a suitor might have about his average offensive numbers from the last two seasons.

Keeping Arenado even for the short term doesn’t solve the Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll, however, so Sammon and Woo write the Cards would then likely put a better emphasis on trading a starting pitcher to save some money.  Sonny Gray has indicated he isn’t going to waive his own no-trade protection and Andre Pallante is still in his arbitration-eligible years, leaving Miles Mikolas (owed $16MM in 2025), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) or Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) as the top trade chips.  It seems likely that St. Louis would be open to moving Mikolas or Matz with or without an Arenado trade, though Sammon and Woo note that the Cardinals would prefer to keep Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they move him at all.

Blue Jays, Diamondbacks Have Expressed Interest In Ryan Helsley

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As the Cardinals eye a reset focused on younger players in 2025, Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com report that the club has received interest from the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks regarding closer Ryan Helsley. A subsequent report from John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 confirms the interest in Helsley on the part of the D-Backs, though Gambadoro adds that the Cardinals do not appear to be interested in dealing their closer.

That apparent disinclination to deal Helsley meshes with a report from earlier this month that characterized St. Louis as unlikely to part ways with Helsley this winter, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggesting at the time that they plan on Helsley remaining with the team for 2025. Given the perennial desire for high-end relief talent at the trade deadline each summer, it stands to reason that if Helsley pitches anything like he did in 2024 (2.04 ERA, 49 saves, 29.7% strikeout rate) in the first half of 2025 the Cardinals would still be able to land quite the haul for his services in the event they aren’t in position to push for a return to the playoffs.

Given that reality, it’s perhaps not a shock that the Cardinals have seemingly set an incredibly high bar for even considering moving on from the two-time All-Star. The 30-year-old has been among the league’s most dominant relievers in recent years, with a 1.83 ERA and 82 saves to go with a 34.6% strikeout rate in 167 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign. That sort of dominant relief profile can net an impressive return even with just one year of team control remaining, as the Brewers demonstrated when they acquired Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin from the Yankees in exchange for star closer Devin Williams.

Considering a report earlier this week suggested that the Snakes had interest in Williams before he was ultimately traded to the Yankees, it’s perhaps no surprise that Arizona has made contact with the Cardinals regarding Helsley. Club brass has made plain their goal of adding high-leverage relief help this winter following the loss of Paul Sewald to free agency. The club’s current back-end trio of Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Kevin Ginkel is a solid one, but it’s easy to see why the Diamondbacks would have interest in bumping a young arm like Martinez out of the closer role and bringing in someone more established.

The Blue Jays, meanwhile, appear to be in the market for upgrades to virtually every area of their roster after a disappointing 2024 season that saw them finish dead last in the AL East. As star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters his final year of team control before free agency, Toronto appears to be focused on adding a bat to the lineup who can help offer him protection and bulking up a starting rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi to a midseason trade and stands to lose Chris Bassitt to free agency next winter. In addition to those two issues, however, it can’t be ignored that the Jays non-tendered longtime closer Jordan Romano last month and currently figure to rely on Chad Green and the recently re-signed Yimi Garcia in the late innings. Adding a more proven closer to that mix would surely help turn around a Blue Jays club that saw its relievers struggle to the second-worst ERA and the worst FIP in baseball last year.

Other options beyond Helsley exist for strengthening either club’s bullpen corps, of course. It’s unclear whether either club would spend what it takes to land a top-of-the-market closing option like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman, but veteran closers like Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson are all available in free agency this winter and could be had on a shorter commitment. Sewald, José Leclerc, and Chris Martin are among the other relievers available who could impact a club’s late-inning mix and could be more affordable than other options available.

Tigers, Guardians Interested In Erick Fedde, Steven Matz

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As reported by John Denton, Mark Feinsand, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, the Tigers and Guardians have both expressed interest in trading for Cardinals starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. Both pitchers seemed to be likely trade candidates entering the offseason, but this is the first report to link either pitcher to specific suitors.

As the Cardinals look to shed payroll and kickstart a retooling effort, just about all of their veteran players look like possible trade chips. Nolan Arenado has generated much of the buzz so far, but his contract isn’t the only one St. Louis could look to offload. After Arenado, the next highest-paid players on the roster are Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Willson Contreras. However, all three have no-trade clauses in their contracts, and all three have expressed a desire to stay in St. Louis. Thus, Matz and Fedde could be the next players who president of baseball operations John Mozeliak looks to flip. Those trades wouldn’t come with quite as much salary relief – Matz will make $12.5MM and Fedde will make $7.5MM in 2025 – but they might be easier to pull off. Not only is less money involved, but neither Matz nor Fedde has the right to reject a trade.

Any trade involving Matz would likely be a salary dump. In other words, the Cardinals should not expect to get any notable players back in return. As he enters his age-34 campaign, Matz is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. In 12 games (seven starts), he pitched to a 5.08 ERA and 4.63 SIERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was the lowest it’s ever been. To make matters worse, he missed four months of the year nursing a lower back strain.

While Matz has been a productive starting pitcher in the not-so-distant past, he has struggled with injuries and inconsistency throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL in every season since his rookie year and has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. His 3.86 ERA and 4.19 SIERA over 105 innings in 2023 are a reminder that he can be a valuable contributor to a big league rotation. Yet, as Matz enters his mid-thirties, concerns about his durability and potential decline will only increase. All that to say, his $12.5MM salary is probably more than he could command on the open market. If the Cardinals want another team to take on that salary, they won’t be able to ask for much in return.

As for Fedde, the Cardinals wouldn’t get as much salary relief in a trade, but they could bring back some talent to help in 2025 and beyond. Although Fedde has had injury and inconsistency problems of his own, he is two years younger than Matz and coming off of two consecutive strong seasons. He also comes $5MM cheaper.

Fedde was little more than an innings eater for the Nationals from 2017-22. However, he reinvented himself in the KBO in 2023, winning the MVP Award and signing a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox last winter. While he wasn’t an MVP-caliber player in 2024, he produced what was easily the best season of his MLB career, pitching 177 1/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 4.19 SIERA. He didn’t excel in any one area, but he limited walks and hard contact at better-than-average rates and tossed at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts. If he repeats that performance in 2025, he’d be an upgrade for just about every contending team’s starting rotation.

As far as contending teams go, Cleveland and Detroit have two of the weaker rotations. With Shane Bieber still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Guardians only have three locks for the rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively. The Tigers are in a similar position with several question marks after Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, and Alex Cobb. With that said, it’s still surprising to see these two teams linked to Fedde and Matz. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported during the Winter Meetings that the Tigers were not “planning to pursue additional starting pitchers” after signing Cobb. He quotes general manager Jeff Greenberg, who said “I think we’re probably done for now.”

As for the Guardians, it’s a question of money as usual. It’s especially rare to see this team spend significant money on pitching because they have done such a good job of developing talented arms internally. Thus, Matz, in particular, seems to be an unexpected target; he would become the highest-paid pitcher on the roster. However, a deal with Cleveland could make more sense if St. Louis is willing to eat some salary to receive a more talented return package.

Cardinals Reportedly Declined Offer Of Marcus Stroman For Nolan Arenado

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Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals declined an offer from the Yankees that could’ve sent Marcus Stroman to St. Louis for Nolan Arenado, according to a report from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. It’s unknown whether Arenado would have approved that trade. MLB.com reports that the Cardinals never brought it to the star third baseman because they were uninterested in acquiring Stroman.

That’s not to say that talks between the clubs on Arenado are finished. The Yankees still have needs at both corner infield positions. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that they’re showing increased interest in Paul Goldschmidt at first base. They write that signing Goldschmidt might make Arenado more likely to waive his no-trade clause to join his former teammate as a corner infield tandem in the Bronx.

Various reports have tied the Yankees to Goldschmidt throughout this week. It seems they’ll turn to one of the short-term free agent options to upgrade first base. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported on Thursday that the Yankees were increasingly likely to pursue a more affordable first baseman than to spend at the top of the market for Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. Walker, whom the Yankees had reportedly preferred to Alonso, has subsequently come off the board on a $60MM deal to Houston.

Interestingly, Goldschmidt’s asking price could itself prove a sticking point. Most predictions, MLBTR’s included, assumed he’d sign a one-year deal as he enters his age-37 season. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that Goldschmidt is seeking multiple years. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll find a two-year deal, of course, which would be a lofty ask coming off a middling season.

Goldschmidt hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 homers during his final year in St. Louis. He posted career-worst strikeout and walk rates with overall offense that measured exactly league average. Goldschmidt had a better second half after a dismal start to the season, but the overall numbers are worrisome given his age. MLBTR felt he’d secure $15MM on a one-year deal.

Money is also a complicating factor on Arenado. Even if the Yankees signed Goldschmidt and Arenado were willing to play there, they’d still need to find an agreeable return with St. Louis. The Cardinals owe the eight-time All-Star $64MM over the next three seasons, while the Rockies are on the hook for another $10MM between 2025-26. (Colorado’s obligations would carry over in the event of a trade.) $12MM of the Cardinals’ $64MM is deferred. MLB.com writes that the net present value of what St. Louis owes is around $60MM.

The Cardinals are trying to shed at least the vast majority of that deal. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the Astros would’ve absorbed around $45MM had Arenado not vetoed the proposed trade to Houston earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported differently, writing that Houston would have taken $59MM. In either case, the Cardinals would have shed most of the money.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the extent of the Yankees’ interest in Arenado depends on how much of the deal the Cardinals would cover. While it’s not known how much the Yankees want St. Louis to eat, their proposal of Stroman would’ve been a financial counterbalance. The righty will make $18MM next season and would trigger a matching player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings. An Arenado/Stroman swap would’ve gotten the Cardinals off the hook for the former’s salaries in 2026-27, but it would not have represented a significant cut next season.

Arenado has a $32MM salary next year, $5MM of which is Colorado’s responsibility. Another $6MM is deferred, so the immediate savings for St. Louis would only have been $3MM. The Cardinals could have tried to flip Stroman themselves. The righty is coming off a 4.31 ERA over 154 2/3 innings. His salary is above market but not egregiously so, but it doesn’t seem the Cardinals had any interest in that sequence of moves.

A player’s competitive balance tax number resets if they’re traded. Assuming the NPV on Arenado’s contract is around three years and $60MM, he’d carry an approximate $20MM luxury tax hit for an acquiring team if the Cardinals did not eat any money. RosterResource calculates New York’s luxury tax number around $287MM. Signing Goldschmidt or taking most of Arenado’s contract would push them beyond the $301MM final tax tier. Doing both would vault them well beyond $301MM, which comes with a 110% tax on every dollar spent from that point.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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The potential for a Nolan Arenado trade has been one of the most persistent storylines of the 2024-25 offseason, and Arenado surged into the spotlight yesterday when it was reported that he invoked his no-trade clause to quash a deal that would’ve sent him to the Astros.

Further details on the matter, unsurprisingly, have continued to leak out today and presumably will in the days and weeks ahead. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that while Arenado vetoed the potential deal to Houston, the Cardinals and Astros will continue to negotiate and an eventual deal remains possible. Of further note, while there’s been plenty of talk regarding the number of teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, Goold suggests that the third baseman has not at any point submitted a formal list of such teams to the Cardinals. Around five teams have spoken with the Cardinals about a trade, per the report.

The lack of a firm list could potentially be due to the fact that Arenado’s willingness to approve a trade to another club is context-dependent. Agent Joel Wolfe made clear at last week’s Winter Meetings that Arenado’s goal is to land with a clear win-now team that will continue to pursue a World Series title for the balance of the three years remaining on his contract. A team’s offseason dealings can impact the perception of whether they’re a true long-term contender.

Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that, somewhat ironically, the very same move that in some regards paved the way for Houston’s pursuit of Arenado might’ve reduced his willingness to go there: the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. For a player seeking a perennial win-now atmosphere, a team simultaneously trading its best player and balking at re-signing a franchise cornerstone (Alex Bregman) logically raises some red flags. Woo and Rome write that Arenado wants to further see how the third-base market plays out before making any kind of decision, with Bregman’s eventual landing spot being one potential factor.

If that sounds counterintuitive, consider that Arenado could be viewed as something of a “Plan B” for teams with interest in Bregman. Bregman has been linked to both the Yankees and Red Sox, for instance. Either could hold appeal to Arenado, speculatively speaking, but they may choose not to ramp up their pursuit until Bregman is off the table. Revisiting the talks with Houston could also occur if Bregman signs elsewhere.

MLB.com’s John Denton appeared on 101 ESPN’s BK and Ferrario Show in St. Louis this morning and touched on the Arenado saga as well. He echoed many of the same points made in those reports and in his own reporting in helping break the no-trade development yesterday, but he added the wrinkle that Arenado is still holding out hope for a potential match with the Dodgers.

While Dodgers brass has publicly indicated that Max Muncy will be the team’s third baseman next season, Denton suggested some gamesmanship in those comments and reports that the Dodgers still have some interest in Arenado. It’s hard to see how that’d work with Muncy in the fold, Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani locked in at designated hitter.

Muncy would make a pricey and overqualified bench player. He’s a highly affordable starter at third, owed $12MM this year with a $10MM club option for 2026. Muncy doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but the 2023-24 version of Arenado isn’t a clear upgrade overall — certainly not when Muncy has been the superior hitter. Muncy’s .232/.358/.494 slash in 2024 (135 wRC+) outpaces Arenado’s .272/.325/.394 output (102 wRC+) — higher batting average for Arenado notwithstanding. Those roadblocks aside, Denton feels the Dodgers aren’t entirely out of the question and that Arenado isn’t likely to approve a deal anywhere “until the Dodgers tell him no to his face.”

There were clearly many factors that went into Arenado’s decision to utilize his no-trade provision, but regardless of the specifics, the scratched Houston deal leaves the Cards in limbo. They’d like to open third base playing time for younger players (e.g. Nolan Gorman, perhaps Jordan Walker) and are simultaneously hopeful of scaling back payroll ahead of next year’s player development-focused “reset” year.

Trading Arenado would’ve done just that, particularly with the Astros apparently willing to foot the majority of the bill. Woo and Rome indicate that Houston was willing to cover around $45MM of Arenado’s deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears differently, reporting that the Astros were willing to cover a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on top of the $10MM the Rockies are covering under the terms of their prior deal. In essence, it seems the Cardinals would’ve only been on the hook for anywhere from $5-19MM in total — as compared to the $64MM they currently owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “facing pressure from ownership” to further reduce payroll.

Taking a step further back, Arenado’s various reported reasons for saying no to the Astros — at least for the time being — suggest we may not get resolution on his trade candidacy anytime soon. If Arenado is waiting to see both whether the Dodgers make a serious push and to see where Bregman lands (perhaps opening the door for a match with an AL East contender), then the Cardinals’ hands are tied to an extent. Passan writes that the Houston veto could push the Cards to show willingness to eat more of the contract, thus bringing in additional suitors. Even in that scenario, the ball would be squarely in Arenado’s court, and if he’s willing to wait out several related market factors, this saga could drag on for some time.

In that scenario, the Cardinals might well be forced to look into other ways they could shed some payroll. Steven Matz ($12MM), Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) and Ryan Helsley (projected $6.9MM) are among the other short-term veterans on the roster who don’t hold the same no-trade provisions that Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas hold. Both Contreras and Gray have reportedly told the Cardinals that they prefer to stay in St. Louis and do not plan to waive their no-trade rights.

Nolan Arenado Uses No-Trade Clause To Block Trade To Astros

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The Cardinals are known to be looking to trade Nolan Arenado this offseason, but the talks are complicated by the fact that he has a full no-trade clause in his contract. Per a report today from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Cards and Astros were in discussion on a trade to send him to Houston before Arenado informed St. Louis that he would not be waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic provided some additional details.

The Cardinals are planning for 2025 to be sort of a reset year, which has put Arenado’s name into trade rumors for the past few months. At the winter meetings last week, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that he intended to try to line up a deal. The idea would seem to be mutually beneficial. Arenado turns 34 in March and could get a chance to go to a club with more immediate aims of playing competitive baseball. The Cards would save some money and open up playing time to get looks at less established players like Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker.

But as mentioned, Arenado gets a say in the matter via that no-trade clause. It was reported last week that he would approve a trade to six teams: the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox. It wasn’t clear if that was an exhaustive list but the Astros weren’t on it. Per today’s report from Woo and Rome, that list originally included the Astros but they were removed, perhaps due to the recent Kyle Tucker trade and uncertainty around the Alex Bregman situation.

Speaking of Bregman, he has long been the third baseman in Houston, though there are some signs they are planning on moving on. In the years leading up to his free agency, they repeatedly said that they wanted to re-sign him but no deal ever came together. He is still unsigned but there was reportedly a gap in the negotiations, with the club offering him $156MM over six years while he was looking for something more in the $200MM range.

On top of that, the Astros made a big trade last week which arguably got them a Bregman replacement for the hot corner. In sending Tucker to the Cubs, the Astros got three players back, one of whom was Isaac Paredes. While Paredes has played all four infield positions, he’s played third base far more than the other three spots combined.

But in the aftermath of that trade, it was reported that the Astros were emerging as “a serious suitor” for Arenado. Since Arenado is renowned for his third base defense, the plan would presumably be to move Paredes over to first base, since that’s also a target area for Houston. Though it appears Arenado isn’t on board, which puts that whole plan on ice for now.

It’s not clear what the full deal was or why Arenado decided to put the kibosh on it. All reporting has suggested that winning is Arenado’s primary motivation with his theoretical next team and the Astros would seemingly fit the bill. Despite just trading Tucker, they are still planning to compete again in 2025 and have been one of the winningest clubs of the past decade. Perhaps his decision has something to do with geography, the Astros sign-stealing scandal or the Astros-Cardinals data breach scandal, though those would be just guesses. Woo and Rome’s report suggests that he wants more time to make his decision and this isn’t final.

Aside from Arenado blocking the deal, the most notable item in today’s reporting is that the Cardinals were apparently willing to eat money. Arenado is going to make $74MM over the next three years but $10MM is covered by the Rockies as part of the trade that sent him from Colorado to St. Louis. There are also some deferrals, which apparently drop the present day value of what’s owed from $64MM to about $60MM, per the MLB.com column. But the Cards were willing to include $15-20MM so that the Astros would only be on the hook for $40-45MM of that. The Athletic says the Cards were willing to eat $5MM per season for the rest of the deal, or exactly $15MM.

That’s a sensible position for the Cards to take. While lowering the payroll is a goal for their planned reset year, it’s already projected to be well below their recent spending levels. RosterResource projects the 2025 payroll to be almost $40MM below 2024 levels. Trading Arenado, even if they eat some of the money, would only widen that gap while allowing the club to get a more notable return in terms of young talent.

It also may have helped the Astros stay under the competitive balance tax, with RosterResource currently putting their number at $225MM. If they were to take on roughly three years and $45MM of Arenado’s deal, that would add $15MM to their number and put them right around the $241MM base threshold.

Now the major questions will be about what comes next for each club. Both reports suggest that the Astros and Cardinals will continue having discussions, but it’s possible that they may have to pivot to other options while they are still available, depending on how much time Arenado wants to make up his mind about Houston. The Astros could look to restart negotiations with Bregman or pivot to a first baseman like Christian Walker. The Cardinals could try to negotiate a new deal with one of the other clubs that Arenado is perhaps less hesitant about joining.

Arenado was an MVP finalist as recently as a couple of years ago but his offense has dipped in recent years. In 2022, he hit 30 home runs and slashed .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+. When combined with his excellent glovework, FanGraphs credited him with 7.2 wins above replacement that year. But over the past two years, he has hit .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+, barely above league average. He’s still been worth close to 3 fWAR annually in that time thanks to the defense, but it’s obviously a concerning drop. Most of his home runs come to the pull side, so playing in front of Houston’s Crawford Boxes could be a good fit for him, but he would have to want that.

Astros Now “Serious Suitor” For Nolan Arenado

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While the Astros have been intent on trying to re-sign Alex Bregman this offseason, the club landed a potential third base backup option in Isaac Paredes, and is now looking at an even bigger option at the hot corner.  The Athletic’s Chandler Rome reports that Houston has “emerged as a serious suitor for” Nolan Arenado’s services, though a trade isn’t “believed to be imminent.”

Since the Cardinals are looking to create more playing time for younger players and reduce payroll, the club has been open about its attempts to trade Arenado this offseason.  The third baseman has a full no-trade clause but is open to waiving it in the right situation, as agent Joel Wolfe stressed that Arenado is only willing to leave St. Louis for “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

The Astros would seemingly fit that description as longtime playoff regulars who are trying to keep their contention window, but it is unclear if Arenado would have interest in going to Houston.  The Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Phillies, Mets, and Red Sox are the six teams Arenado would reportedly be willing to play for, but it isn’t known if any clubs beyond this group would also meet his approval for a waiver of his no-trade privileges.

Beyond the no-trade clause, the Astros and Cardinals also have to work out the terms of the actual deal, and finances could present an obstacle.  Rome writes that “the Astros will ask the Cardinals to help pay down” the $74MM owed to Arenado over the final three years of his contract.  (Only $64MM is technically the Cards’ responsibility, as the Rockies are covering $10MM of that figure as per the term of the 2021 trade that brought Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis.)  Whether or not the Cardinals are willing to cover any of Arenado’s salary is an open question, and if so, it’ll be a matter of whether they can match figures with the Astros or any other suitor, or if St. Louis is willing to take on an unwanted contract as salary offset.

Some additional baggage might stand in a way of an Astros/Cardinals trade in particular.  Former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa was found guilty in federal court over charges of illegally accessing the Astros’ proprietary baseball operations database in 2013 and 2014, and MLB punished the Cardinals by forcing them to give $2MM and their top picks in the 2017 draft to the Astros as punishment.  Though Houston’s front office has since been overhauled and Chaim Bloom is set to replace John Mozeliak next year as the Cards’ next president of baseball operations, the two teams haven’t completed a trade with each other since 2012, hinting at some lingering bad blood.

Astros GM Dana Brown said yesterday that the team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker (and get Paredes back in the trade package from the Cubs) didn’t indicate that anything changed in Houston’s pursuit of a reunion with Bregman.  KPRC’s Ari Alexander also hears from a source that the Astros remain among “the strong four” top contenders for Bregman along with the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees, with the Tigers and Blue Jays also linked to Bregman’s market.

Technically, a scenario exists where Houston could re-sign Bregman, install Arenado at first base, and then have Paredes at DH whenever Yordan Alvarez is in left field.  But, more realistically, trading for Arenado would surely close the door on the chances of a reunion between Bregman and the Astros.  Reports have indicated that Houston has offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM contract, but if he and his camp have indicated that a larger outlay is necessary, that might explain why the Astros now have given more attention to Arenado since the end of the Winter Meetings.  With at least the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox in on both third basemen, it make sense that the Astros would also explore both options out of due diligence.

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