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Latest On Financial Dispute Between Nationals And Orioles, MASN

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The Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is co-owned by the Orioles and Nationals, although the Orioles have a controlling stake. Since the network was established in 2005, the two clubs have regularly fought over how much money the Nationals should receive in rights fees each season. These disagreements have led to several court battles over the years.

Earlier this week, the Nationals filed a petition with the Supreme Court of New York, requesting that the court confirm a decision from MLB’s Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee. The committee found that the Orioles and MASN owe the Nationals approximately $320.5MM in TV rights fees to cover the 2022-26 seasons (per Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun). That would mean around $203.9MM in backpay for the past three seasons ($72.8MM for 2022 and ’23 and $58.3MM for ’24) and another $58.3MM in 2025 and ’26. To put those numbers in context, RosterResource estimates the Nationals spent around $130MM on player payroll in 2024.

As Weyrich points out, a quick resolution to this petition would mean the two clubs will be in agreement on a deal that holds for multiple years to come for the first time since 2012. As for whether or not the two sides will be able to stay out of court in 2027 and beyond? That remains to be seen. Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein previously spoke about his desire to move these discussions “away from the lawyers” but stopped far short of making any promises. “I don’t have an easy answer yet,” he said. “If it was easy, it would have been resolved” (per Weyrich).

The Nationals have been active this offseason, trading for Nathaniel Lowe, signing Josh Bell and Michael Soroka, and re-signing Trevor Williams. However, they have not made the kind of big splash (or even medium splash) that some thought they’d make this winter. With a projected 2025 payroll that is still $22MM below last year’s final figure and the possibility of more financial certainty if this $320.5MM agreement is confirmed, perhaps the Nationals will continue adding this offseason to supplement a roster full of talented but unproven young players.

Trevor Williams To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation

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The Nationals brought Trevor Williams back on a two-year, $14MM free agent deal this week. The veteran righty spoke with the Washington beat (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) this afternoon and indicated he’ll be part of Dave Martinez’s rotation.

While that’s not surprising in isolation, it potentially sets up a camp battle if Washington sticks with a five-man staff. They signed righty Michael Soroka to a $9MM deal to work as a starter. The Nats are also bringing back four pitchers who started at least 19 games last season: Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.

All four of those returning arms had productive campaigns. Gore is a former top prospect who posted a 3.90 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents across 32 starts. He’ll certainly be in the rotation. Irvin led the team with 187 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.41 ERA with decent underlying metrics. The 27-year-old righty did seem to wear down in the second half, as he allowed a near-6.00 ERA after taking a 3.49 mark into the All-Star Break. He still seems likely to be a starting pitcher himself.

If Washington wanted to begin the year with a five-man staff, that could leave Parker and Herz battling for a job if everyone comes through Spring Training healthy. Herz showed more swing-and-miss ability, fanning nearly 28% of opponents with a 12.9% swinging strike rate in 19 starts as a rookie. The southpaw’s 9.4% walk rate was the highest of any of Washington’s starters, though. Herz has had far more worrisome walk numbers in the minors, including a massive 19% clip over 10 Triple-A starts last year.

Parker, 25, profiles as a steadier back-end arm. He made 29 starts during his debut campaign and turned in a 4.29 ERA through 151 innings. He struck out 20.6% of opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t throw quite as hard as Herz does and doesn’t miss bats at the same rate, but he looks the part of a league average starter.

Washington used a six-man rotation when Williams returned from injury late last season. Patrick Corbin, who is now a free agent, was on hand in the role that Soroka would play this year. That’d be the simplest solution if all six starters are available on Opening Day. Each of Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz have minor league options, though, so the Nats could send anyone from that group to Triple-A if they wanted to move to a five-man staff.

Prospect Cade Cavalli will be in the mix after missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nusbaum writes that Cavalli, who made his big league debut with one start in 2022, is likely to open the year in the minors. That’s designed to allow the team to monitor his workload since he has only thrown 8 1/3 minor league innings over the last two years. Cavalli is expected to factor into the MLB staff at some point in the season.

Nationals Re-Sign Trevor Williams

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The Nationals officially announced the re-signing of Trevor Williams to a two-year free agent deal. It’s reportedly a $14MM guarantee for the John Boggs & Associates client. The veteran right-hander turns 33 next April.

The last time Williams was a free agent, he signed a two-year, $13MM pact with Washington. Despite an uneven performance over the past two seasons, he showed enough upside to convince the club to bring him back on an almost identical deal. In 2023, the righty was an innings eater for the Nationals, providing them with 144 1/3 frames in 30 starts. It was the first time he passed the 100-inning threshold since 2019. However, there was little else to like about his performance. No NL pitcher (min. 140 IP) had a higher ERA than Williams that year. He also finished among the bottom five in strikeout rate, SIERA, and xERA. Things turned especially sour at the end of the year; he gave up 33 runs (32 earned) in 35 2/3 innings over his final eight starts.

The 2024 season was a completely different story. Williams got off to a red-hot start, pitching to a 2.22 ERA across 11 outings in April and May. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to do the one thing he did well in 2023: stay on the field. A flexor muscle strain in his pitching arm kept him out for nearly four months from May to September. He continued to see great results in two starts upon his return (10 IP, 1 ER, 12 K), but he finished the year with just 13 starts and 66 2/3 innings under his belt.

Most of the underlying data indicates Williams wasn’t quite as dominant as he seemed on the surface. His .267 BABIP and 4.2% home run-to-fly ball ratios were well below his career averages, while his 80.2% left-on-base percentage was well above his typical rate. His 22.7% strikeout rate marked a significant improvement from the year before, but it was only a touch above league average for a starting pitcher. Thus, his 3.96 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.03 ERA.

Regardless, Williams was still a productive starter when he was on the field, even if the peripheral numbers suggest he was more of a mid-rotation arm than an ace. If he can figure out how to combine the best parts of his 2023 and ’24 seasons, he will be well worth a $7MM annual salary over the next two seasons. Of course, it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be able to do that. Williams has reached 30 starts just twice in his nine-year MLB tenure, and he came into the 2024 season with a career 4.48 ERA and 4.66 SIERA. He is also entering his mid-thirties. In theory, his excellent command should help him thrive as an older starter. Then again, he could be in real trouble if he loses any more velocity on his four-seam fastball. It was a valuable pitch in 2024, but at 88.9 mph, it’s already one of the slowest heaters in the league.

Williams will return to a Nationals rotation that also features de facto ace MacKenzie Gore, free agent acquisition (and project) Michael Soroka, and a handful of mid-to-back-end types who broke out for Washington last year: Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz. Top prospect Cade Cavalli will also factor into the equation, although Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post notes that the team will be monitoring Cavalli’s innings in 2025 and could option him to Triple-A to begin the year. Meanwhile, Josiah Gray is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be out for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign. It’s unclear how manager Dave Martinez will set up his rotation to begin the season, but barring an injury or a disastrous performance this spring, it feels safe to presume that Williams be one of the starting five (or six?) come Opening Day.

Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Athletic first reported the Nationals were re-signing Williams on a two-year, $14MM deal.

Nationals Sign Josh Bell

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Josh Bell is heading back to Washington, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the first baseman has signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Nationals.  The 32-year-old Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Since Nathaniel Lowe was just acquired last week to be the Nats’ new everyday first baseman, Bell likely now slots in as the first-choice designated hitter.  Both the left-handed hitting Lowe and the switch-hitting Bell have pretty even career splits, but Bell could step in at first base every once in a while when Washington faces a left-handed pitcher, even though Lowe is a much better fielder.  As the DH, Bell’s switch-hitting bat also brings a bit more balance to a Nationals lineup that is heavy on lefty swingers.

In a career defined by major hot and cold streaks, Bell’s previous stint in D.C. stands out as perhaps the most consistent stretch of his nine MLB seasons.  The Nationals acquired Bell from the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason, and Bell proceeded to hit .278/.363/.483 with 41 homers over 1005 plate appearances from Opening Day 2021 until he was dealt to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster at the 2022 trade deadline.

Unfortunately for Bell and the Padres, his bat went cold after the deal, though his overall offensive output was enough for him to earn NL Silver Slugger honors for the DH position.  It also led to a two-year, $33MM contract with the Guardians that winter, but Bell didn’t hit particularly well in his first four months in Cleveland before he was again dealt at the deadline, which sparked another hot streak as he helped lead the Marlins to a playoff berth.

The pattern continued at last July’s deadline, as Bell again found himself on the move from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks.  Bell had hit only .239/.305/.394 in 441 PA for Miami last year, but his bat again came to life post-trade, as he hit .279/.361/.436 in 162 PA for an Arizona team that had temporarily lost starting first baseman Christian Walker to the injured list.

The short-term nature of this latest contract leaves open the possibility that Bell could be dealt at his fourth consecutive trade deadline if the Nationals aren’t in contention.  While Lowe is under arbitration control through the 2026 season, Bell and fellow free agent Michael Soroka were both inked to one-year deals, as the Nationals seem to be somewhat hedging their bets on their readiness to compete in 2025.  The Nats have struggled through five straight losing seasons since their World Series victory in 2019, yet with many members of their young core now in the big leagues, there was speculation Washington might be a little more aggressive this winter in firmly announcing the end of its rebuild.

This being said, Bell’s signing is certainly a boost for a Nationals club that had trouble producing offense last year, particularly in the power department.  The Nats’ 135 home runs ranked 29th of 30 teams, and CJ Abrams (with 20 homers) was the only D.C. player who went yard more often than Bell (19 homers) did in 2024.

With Bell and Lowe in the fold, expected improvement from Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.  If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball next year, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.

Bell’s career walk and strikeout rates have consistently been above average, while his barrel rates have been more spotty.  His hard-hit ball rate dropped to 40.1% last season, slightly below the league average and his lowest mark since the 2018 season.  While there isn’t much sign of decline at age 32, per se, the big question about Bell is simply which version of the slugger is going to show up, given how his production has swung back and forth so sharply over the last few seasons.

Now that Bell is signed, third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.  The bullpen remains a clear area of need, and there’s still plenty of time in the offseason for the Nationals to add a bigger name than Soroka as more of a clear-cut upgrade to the rotation.

Nationals Sign Patrick Weigel To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals have signed right-hander Patrick Weigel to a minor league deal, as noted by Talk Nats. The deal presumably includes an invite to big league Spring Training.

Weigel, 30, was a seventh-round pick by the Braves back in 2015. The righty worked his way up through Atlanta’s minor league system to make his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season, but was shelled in his lone appearance to the tune of two runs on two hits, three walks, and a wild pitch during an outing that saw him record no strikeouts and just two outs overall. That rough big league debut proved to be his only work in the majors with Atlanta, as he was shipped to Milwaukee as part of the Orlando Arcia trade in 2021. Weigel was used as an up-and-down reliever with the Brewers, for whom he delivered three decent but unremarkable relief appearances. In four innings of work that year, he pitched to a 4.50 ERA with nine strikeouts and four walks.

Despite that serviceable work in his brief time in the majors during 2021, his time at Triple-A Nashville was nothing short of disastrous. In 43 1/3 innings of work at the level, Weigel posted a brutal 7.27 ERA while walking 17.6% of opponents faced. That complete lack of command led the Brewers to designate the right-hander for assignment on the day of the 2021 trade deadline, leading him to elect minor league free agency during the offseason. He eventually caught on with the Mariners on a minor league deal for the 2022 season and pitched to a decent 4.21 ERA in 62 innings of work, though his 13.9% walk rate still left much to be desired.

Since departing the Mariners during the 2022-23 offseason, Weigel has bounced between independent leagues. He pitched for the American Association’s Kansas City Monarchs in 2023, and his solid work there led him to split the 2024 campaign between the Reds’ minor league system and the Mexican League’s Saraperos de Saltillo. Weigel dominated the Double-A level with the Reds (0.90 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate) but was lit up at Triple-A to the tune of five runs in just two innings of work. Now, he’s poised to try his hand with a fifth MLB organization. The Nationals are surely hoping they’ll be able to help Weigel rein in his command, and if he can get his walk rate into a more manageable range going forward it’s easy to imagine him be a useful non-roster depth option for the club out of the bullpen this year.

Yankees Did Not Make Offer To Gleyber Torres In Free Agency

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Second baseman Gleyber Torres saw his first foray into free agency come to a close yesterday when he landed a one-year, $15MM contract with the Tigers. According to a report from Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, however, Torres had multi-year offers on the table that he turned down in favor of signing with Detroit. McCosky goes on to note that Torres highlighted the Nationals and Angels as teams who made offers to him before he signed with the Tigers, while the incumbent Yankees did not make him an offer.

“I’ve got great friends there, great communication with the entire organization,” Torres said of his longtime club. “I feel proud of myself for being with the Yankees for seven years, but now I’m with Detroit and just really happy they gave me the opportunity to play next year. I think they have other priorities and I’m not on the list. I’m good.”

It’s not necessarily a major shock that the Yankees opted not to make an attempt to bring back Torres. The 28-year-old joined the club prior to his MLB debut as part of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs at the 2016 trade deadline and debuted with the club back in 2018. After back-to-back All-Star seasons in 2018 and ’19, Torres’s production took a step backwards. He’s slashed just .261/.332/.411 (109 wRC+) while playing average to below average defense at second base. It’s solid enough production for a big league regular but a far cry from the numbers the Yankees surely hoped they were getting when their consensus top-5 prospect in baseball posted a 123 wRC+ in the first two seasons of his big league career.

Torres actually began to look something more like his early-career self in 2023, when he slashed a strong .273/.347/.453 (120 wRC+) and put up 3.6 fWAR. Unfortunately, though, he followed that up with a lackluster 2024 season that saw his wRC+ drop down to just 104, the second-lowest figure of his career. That weak overall number is thanks in large part to a slow start to the season, as Torres hit just .215/.289/.248 in his first 32 games of the season. From May 2 onward, however, he slashed a much more respectable .268/.341/.412 (115 wRC+), including an excellent .292/.361/.419 (124 wRC+) after the All-Star break.

That strong finish wasn’t enough to save his role with the Yankees, however, as the club had already traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr. at the trade deadline over the summer. While Chisholm shifted to third base in deference to Torres down the stretch, the Yankees have eyed potential third base additions such as Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado rather than a reunion with Torres as they consider moving Chisholm back to his natural position. Even so, Torres’s excellent numbers late in the season grabbed the attention of a few clubs aside from the Tigers, with Torres himself highlighting the Nationals and Angels as teams who showed interest in him this winter.

Both clubs were previously reported to have interest in Torres this winter, so it’s hardly a shock that either club made him an offer. With that being said, Torres’s ability to remain at his natural position of second base with the Tigers may have made them a more attractive option than either D.C. or Anaheim. The Nationals were explicitly interested in Torres as a third baseman given the presence of Luis García Jr. at the keystone, while the Angels currently have Luis Rengifo penciled in as their everyday second baseman. It’s unclear whether Angels brass were hoping to move Torres to third base as well or if they’d have instead had Rengifo take up the super-utility role he’s handled often throughout his career, but the Tigers moving Colt Keith to first base in deference to Torres surely made it easy for the 28-year-old to feel comfortable that he would be able to put his best foot forward with the club this year before returning to free agency next winter.

With Torres now off the board, the Angels and Nationals will have to look elsewhere if they hope to upgrade their infield mix this winter. Washington already landed first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in trade with the Rangers earlier this week but could also stand to make an upgrade at the hot corner. The Angels, meanwhile, have been connected to several third base options ranging from known trade candidates like Nolan Arenado and Alec Bohm to more surprising options like Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Aside from those trade market possibilities, the third base market in free agency is led by Bregman but also includes lower-tier options like Yoan Moncada and Josh Rojas.

Nationals Acquire Nathaniel Lowe

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The Nationals and Rangers have swung a one-for-one trade that will see first baseman Nathaniel Lowe head to Washington in exchange for left-hander Robert Garcia.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) was the first to report the deal, which has now been officially announced by both teams.

Lowe will change teams via trade for the second time in his career, as it was just over four years ago that Lowe was dealt from the Rays to the Rangers as part of a six-player swap.  The Rays’ first base depth had left Lowe struggling for playing time in his first two MLB seasons, but he immediately found a regular job once Texas installed him as its everyday first baseman.  Lowe has played in 615 of a possible 648 regular-season games in his four seasons with the Rangers, while hitting .274/.359/.432 with 78 homers in 2576 plate appearances.

Between his 123 wRC+ over those four seasons and increasingly strong defensive metrics, Lowe has been worth 10.6 fWAR during his Rangers tenure.  It isn’t superstar production and the left-handed hitting Lowe has naturally been more consistent against right-handed pitching, but he has at worst been a steady regular, with hints of a higher ceiling of production.  Lowe hit .302/.358/.492 with 27 homers over 645 PA in 2022, though a .363 BABIP may have helped contribute to that career year.

Despite Lowe’s very solid play, there had been some whispers that the Rangers could be looking to clear some room at first base.  The recently-acquired Jake Burger figures to get a good chunk of the first base at-bats now that Lowe is off the roster, with Josh Smith, Justin Foscue, or Ezequiel Duran also in the running for playing time depending on how the Rangers opt to arrange their infield.  Josh Jung is slated to be the regular third baseman but Burger, Smith, or Duran could also be used at the hot corner based on matchups.

Lowe’s increasing arbitration price tag was also surely a factor in the Rangers’ decision.  Now entering his second arb-eligible year, Lowe was projected to earn $10.7MM for the 2025 season.  It is hardly an ungainly sum for a Gold Glove-winning first baseman with Lowe’s offensive production, but since Lowe turns 30 in July, Texas might’ve been considering the longer-term question of whether or not Lowe was a candidate for a contract extension.

Today’s trade answers that question, and gaining more flexibility at a premium position allows the Rangers to both see what they have in internal options, or to potentially keep first base open for a bigger free agent or trade target down the road.  Or, such a bat could still come this offseason, as Texas now has an even greater need for left-handed hitting depth after dealing Lowe.

It was no secret that the Nationals were looking to upgrade at first base this winter, as such free agents as Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt were on Washington’s radar.  Walker signed with the Astros and Goldschmidt joined the Yankees just within the last week, which quite possibly prompted the Nats to complete this trade as the first-base market continues to quickly thin out.

The Lowe deal is the clearest sign yet that the Nationals are ready to end their rebuild after five straight losing seasons.  The Nats’ youth movement has led to CJ Abrams, James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Luis Garcia Jr. becoming parts of the everyday lineup, but plenty more offensive help was still required for a team that finished near the back of the pack in several major offensive categories.

In adding Lowe, the Nationals now have a player still in his prime who can bring a veteran voice and championship experience to the clubhouse, in addition to what Lowe can provide on the field.  There is even a slightly hometown-hero aspect to the trade, as Lowe was born a few hours’ down the road from D.C. in Norfolk, Virginia.

The Nats have plenty of payroll space available, so Lowe’s salaries aren’t any kind of concern for the team.  Addressing first base by trading for Lowe instead of, say, spending much more in salary and draft capital to sign a Walker or a Pete Alonso allows president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo to still keep his financial powder dry for other big moves this winter or (perhaps more likely) next offseason or potentially at the trade deadline.  Rizzo and team ownership might prefer to give it one more season to see what they really have in their young core before really putting the pedal down in a full-fledged run towards contention.  In this scenario, Lowe is already under control if 2026 is really the Nationals “go for it” kind of year.

Garcia’s role in the deal shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Nationals now have an even greater need for relief pitching after dealing away a southpaw who showed plenty of promise in his first two Major League seasons.  Washington claimed Garcia off waivers from the Marlins in August 2023, and the lefty has a 4.03 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 46.6% grounder rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 91 2/3 career relief innings.

Fifty-nine and two-thirds of those frames came last season, as Garcia posted a misleading 4.22 ERA that was inflated by some bad luck.  Garcia had a .329 BABIP and a very low 57.2% strand rate, and his 2.71 SIERA is perhaps a better reflection of just how solid Garcia’s performance was in 2024.  The left-hander doesn’t bring much in the way of velocity, but his fastball is used primarily to set up his excellent changeup, which was quietly one of the more effective changeups thrown by any pitcher in baseball.

With a swath of above-average Statcast metrics, Garcia will provide a huge boost to the Texas bullpen if he can replicate those numbers on his new club.  Garcia joins Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner as recent new additions to a relief corps that was destined to undergo an overhaul with Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, and David Robertson all entering free agency.  Since this trio is still unsigned, the Rangers could seek out reunions with any of their own free agents, but naturally it makes sense to fortify the pen with other longer-term arms like Garcia.  The left-hander turns 29 in June but is arb-controlled through the 2029 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Mariners, Nationals, Mets Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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Veteran first baseman appears to be drawing a lot of interest as a free agent. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Nationals and Mets are all engaged with him. The connections to the Yankees and Giants have been previously covered at MLBTR, as well as interest from the Tigers.

Coming into the winter, the free agent market for first basemen had various intriguing options, but their respective ages gave them different levels of earning power. As part of MLBTR’s annual ranking of the Top 50 Free Agents, Pete Alonso was the top first baseman. Now 30 years old, he was predicted for a five-year, $125MM deal. Christian Walker, who is going into his age-34 season, had a prediction of three years and $60MM. Goldschmidt, now 37, was predicted for $15MM on a one-year deal. Veterans like Justin Turner and Carlos Santana didn’t crack the list but should be in line for one-year deals as well.

Earlier today, the Astros cut out the middle of that market. Walker has reportedly agreed to sign with Houston on exactly the three-year, $60MM deal that MLBTR predicted. For clubs that are still looking for help at first base, there’s now a clear divide between the big-ticket option in Alonso, as well as several other more affordable possibilities. Alonso also rejected a qualifying offer, so he’s also tied to the associated penalties with signing such a player, which depend upon whether a club paid the competitive balance tax this year or is a revenue sharing recipient.

Regardless of how clubs feel about Alonso, some of them will just not be likely candidates to make that kind of a splash in free agency. For those that are looking to make a modest investment at first, Goldschmidt is an intriguing candidate.

As recently as 2022, Goldschmidt was one of the best players at the position. He won National League Most Valuable Player that year, hitting 35 home runs, drawing walks at a 12.1% clip and stealing seven bases. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a wRC+ of 175 and produced 6.8 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

But the last two years have been far less impressive. He had a .268/.363/.447 batting line and 122 wRC+ in 2023. In the most recent season, that was down to .245/.302/.414 and a 100 wRC+, exactly league average production. His 7.2% walk rate was the worst of his career. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a personal high, apart from his rookie debut way back in 2011.

That’s downward slope is obviously somewhat discouraging, but Goldy has a strong track record and at least finished strong in 2024. After hitting .230/.291/.373 for an 87 wRC+ in the first half, he posted a .271/.319/.480 line and 120 wRC+ in the second half. The Cardinals aren’t bringing him back as they pivot to a reset year, which involves lowering the payroll. It also means more playing time for younger players like catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, which is pushing Willson Contreras to first base.

The Mariners are rarely huge spenders in free agency and are working with budgetary constraints this offseason, reportedly having about $15MM of wiggle room at the moment. It’s been rumored that they are considering Luis Castillo trade offers as a means of opening up some extra room, but they wouldn’t be a likely suitor even in that scenario. They are looking to add multiple infielders and a Castillo trade could perhaps leave them looking to make a rotation addition as well.

Goldschmidt fits well into their offseason plans as they are looking for a right-handed hitting veteran first baseman. They have been connected to Turner and Santana in rumors this offseason, as well as Walker before he agreed to his new deal with the Astros. Goldschmidt is another option they could consider, as he would require a lesser investment than Walker, though likely more than Turner or Santana.

MLBTR’s $15MM projection for Goldschmidt exactly matches what the M’s reportedly have to spend. That wouldn’t leave them any money to get the other infielder they want, likely a third baseman, though perhaps the trade market could help them out there.

The Nationals have been rebuilding for a while but could perhaps be ready to emerge back into contention. Their roster has started to fill up with exciting young talents but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said back in September that adding middle-of-the-order bats was a priority this winter.

That kind of addition wouldn’t have to come at first base but it would be the most logical place for it. They have lots of exciting young players for the outfield. CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. seem to be set in the middle infield. Prospect Brady House is a potential third baseman of the future.

But at first, the Nats gave most of their playing time to Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses and Juan Yepez this year. The club declined a mutual option on Gallo while Meneses was outrighted and has since signed a minor league deal with the Mets. Yepez is still on the roster but is likely viewed as more of a role player than an everyday guy. The Nats also don’t have a strict designater hitter and could theoretically have lots of at-bats to share between Yepez and Goldschmidt or some other external addition.

The Mets technically have a first base vacancy but it would be a surprise to see them put fill it with Goldschmidt. Alonso has been a mainstay there for years and many in the baseball world expect the Polar Bear to wind up back in Queens. If Alonso ends up elsewhere, it’s been expected that the Mets would move Mark Vientos over from third since his defense at the hot corner is not well regarded. That could allow them to pursue someone like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

It’s clear though that president of baseball operations David Stearns loves short-term deals. Last winter, he signed ten free agents, nine of them getting one-year deals. Sean Manaea got two years but with an opt-out, which he eventually triggered.

This winter, it was thought that he would ramp up the aggressiveness. The 15-year Juan Soto deal certainly qualifies but Stearns has paired that with a pile of far more modest moves. Despite having seemingly unlimited funds to work with, he has given one-year deals to Griffin Canning, Jared Young, Dylan Covey and Justin Hagenman, a two-year deal to Frankie Montas and a three-year deal with an opt-out to Clay Holmes.

Signing Goldschmidt to replace Alonso would likely mean Vientos staying at third base for another year, but that was tolerable in 2024 and he’s only 25 years old, so perhaps he will improve a little with more experience. Guys like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña could perhaps push their way into the infield mix over the course of the year, solidifying the infield group for 2026 and beyond.

Christian Walker Reportedly Seeking Four-Year Deal

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Christian Walker has been a popular target in free agency thus far in the offseason, drawing interest not only from the incumbent Diamondbacks but also the Yankees, Mariners, Astros and Nationals, among other clubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that interested teams have been unwilling to extend their offers beyond three years but that Walker’s camp “would love to get a fourth year.”

Widespread interest in Walker is only logical. He’s been among the most underrated players in the sport for several seasons. The 33-year-old slugger’s .251/.335/.468 slash from 2024 is a near mirror image of the broader .253/.332/.464 line he carries in nearly 3200 plate appearances dating back to 2019. At the time, it would’ve seemed utterly nonsensical to think that the Diamondbacks would be able to successfully replace perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt with a journeyman waiver claim, but Arizona did just that and has been rewarded handsomely.

Not only has Walker been consistently productive at the plate — 13% better than average overall, including 20% better over the past three seasons — he’s emerged as one of the game’s best defenders at his position. Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves for his work at first base. Walker’s 33 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons lead all big league first baseman by a wide margin. Matt Olson is second, at 27. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting Walker with 39 Outs Above Average — nearly double that of second-ranked Carlos Santana (20). He’s made only eight errors since 2022.

Quietly excellent as Walker has been, however, a four-year deal is a lofty ask when considering his age. He’ll turn 34 in March. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, only four position players in the past decade have secured a four-year deal beginning in their age-34 season or later: Josh Donaldson (four years, $92MM with the Twins), Ben Zobrist (four years, $56MM with the Cubs), Nelson Cruz (four years, $57MM with the Mariners) and Victor Martinez (four years, $68MM with the Tigers. Donaldson’s deal, now almost five years old, is the most recent of the bunch. Of the four, only Cruz’s contract played out well.

Suffice it to say, four years would break any recent precedent for a position player of this age. Speculatively speaking, he could go the route some other veterans have in the past to secure the additional years they seek on longer-term deals: throw in (in this instance) the fourth year at a discounted rate. General expectations for Walker have been that he’ll command something in the vicinity of $20MM per year. If he were to tack on a fourth year at, say, $8-10MM, that’d get him his fourth season and also lower the luxury-tax hit for the signing club. For many of Walker’s reported suitors, that won’t be a factor, as they’re not CBT payors anyhow. For a team like the Yankees or Astros, it could prove significant.

Walker’s asking price is likely one of the reasons that the Yankees “appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base,” as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The others include the qualifying offer that’d cost them an additional two draft picks (after already punting two for Max Fried) and the plethora of options available on the free agent market  (Santana, Justin Turner, Goldschmidt) and trade market (Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Nathaniel Lowe).

Nationals Sign Michael Soroka

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The Nationals announced that they have signed right-hander Michael Soroka to a one-year deal, which reportedly comes with a $9MM salary. The club had 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move. The ISE Baseball client will reportedly be used as a starter.

Soroka, 27, came into the offseason as one of the more interesting free agents available. He found success as a starting pitcher in his early 20s, back in 2019, but missed most of the 2020 to 2023 seasons due to injuries. In 2024, he struggled badly as a starter but then got moved to a bullpen role and finished the season in very strong fashion. It could have been argued that he earned himself another shot at a rotation job or that he found a role that worked for him and should continue as a reliever, though it seems he will take another shot at being a starter next year.

Prior to his 2019 breakout, Soroka was already a name to watch. He was a first-round pick of Atlanta in 2015 and found himself on top 100 prospect lists as he climbed through the minors. He debuted with five starts in 2018 and then fully cemented himself as a big leaguer in 2019, making 29 starts and logging 174 2/3 innings while allowing 2.68 earned runs per nine. His 20.3% strikeout rate was just below average but his 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate were both notably better than par.

That was Soroka’s age-21 season, so it seemed Atlanta had a rotation building block for years to come. Unfortunately, the baseball gods had a miserable fate in store for Soroka’s next chapter. In his third start of the shortened 2020 season, he had to be helped off the field with a leg injury, later revealed to be a torn right achilles tendon which required surgery. In 2021, he missed some time due to shoulder inflammation and later required another surgery on his achilles. He got back on the mound in 2022 and pitched in the minors, though that season was ended due to elbow soreness. In 2023, he was frequently shuttled between Triple-A and the majors and finished the season on the IL due to forearm inflammation.

After those four years in the injury wilderness, Atlanta seemingly didn’t have much faith in Soroka bouncing back. He was flipped to the White Sox in November, part of a five-for-one trade that saw Atlanta flip multiple spare parts for Aaron Bummer in a roster clearout move.

Unlike Atlanta, Chicago was aggressively rebuilding and had more bandwidth for being patient with Soroka, hoping for a bounceback. It didn’t materialize at first. Soroka started the season with nine starts but had a 6.39 ERA in those. His 46.9% grounder rate was strong but his matching strikeout and walk rates of 12.4% were both bad.

The last of those starts was on May 12. Soroka was moved to the bullpen at that point, which is when things became very interesting. He tossed 36 innings out of the bullpen in the remainder of the season with a 2.75 ERA. His 13% walk rate was oddly high and his grounder rate was just 26.5% but he managed to punch out 39% of batter’s faced.

That came with a significant change in his pitch mix. In those nine starts, he threw 22.5% four-seamers, 30.8% sinkers, 31.9% sliders and 14.7% changeups. After moving to the bullpen, he pushed towards a fastball/slider mix, with 43.2% of his pitches being the former and 41.6% the latter. His sinker and changeup rates dropped to 10.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite limiting his arsenal, he was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Righties hit just .197/.306/.296 against Soroka the reliever while lefties mustered only a .179/.299/.286 line.

Given the amount of success he had in that relief role, it might be tempting to suggest that he should stay there, but there are also counterarguments. For one thing, despite the many twists and turns in his career, Soroka is still young. He is currently 27 and won’t turn 28 until August. He might not want to give up on the possibility of being a starter just yet.

Furthermore, teams these days don’t tend to view relief success as any kind of reason to not try a guy in a starting role. In recent years, bullpen-to-rotation conversions have become all the rage, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, Jeffrey Springs and others making the move successfully. It doesn’t always work out, with A.J. Puk being one example, but even then the downside is pretty harmless as the pitcher just lands as a viable reliever as a fallback.

The Nats should be able to give Soroka a chance to earn a rotation job, at least for a while. They have some intriguing arms but most of them are fairly lacking in experience. The quartet of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz all had decent results in 2024, with each posting an ERA of 4.41 or lower. However, Gore’s 372 2/3 career innings are the most of the bunch. Irvin is at 308 while Parker and Herz just debuted in 2024 and are below 200. Josiah Gray had UCL surgery in July and won’t be a factor until late in the 2025 season, if at all. Cade Cavalli missed all of 2023 and 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery and it’s unknown what kind of workload he can take on next year.

Washington can give Soroka a rotation gig to start the year and see how things go. If he struggles out of the gate, they can push him to the bullpen and give those starts to one of the younger pitchers. But if things go well, he can be very valuable for the Nats. If they are able to emerge from their ongoing rebuild, he can be a part of that, but he could be a midseason trade candidate even if the club isn’t ready for that step yet. Even if he’s pushed to a relief role, he could still be an interesting deadline trade candidate.

It’s also theoretically possible that he pitches his way into consideration for a qualifying offer at season’s end, as even mid-rotation or back-end guys like Nick Pivetta, Luis Severino and Nick Martinez got QOs this year. In that scenario, Soroka could stay with the Nats all year and help them make a contending push while also providing some future value at the end of the year, though that will be a concern for another day.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soroka for a two-year deal worth $14MM. He has settled for a lesser guarantee but on a stronger annual value, with the chance to return to the open market a year from now. For him personally, that could be a lucrative bet, as it’s possible he will have much more earning power at the end of the 2025 season.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Nats and Soroka were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that it was a one-year deal worth $9MM.

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