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Corbin Burnes

Details On Corbin Burnes Contract

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The Diamondbacks finalized their shocking six-year free agent deal with Corbin Burnes on Monday. The former Cy Young winner signed a $210MM contract, though deferrals in the $60MM range were known to have knocked down the net present value to an extent.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the deal’s specific breakdown. The contract officially contains $64MM in deferred money. Burnes will collect a $10MM signing bonus up front, which was first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. $10MM of his $30MM salaries over the next two seasons will be deferred. If he does not trigger an opt-out clause after the ’26 season, he’d be due $35MM annually between 2027-30. $11MM of those salaries will be deferred. According to Heyman, the contract comes with a net present value of roughly $193.76MM.

Burnes will be able to opt out with four years and $140MM remaining. Whether he does so will determine when he receives the deferred money. According to the Associated Press, Burnes would be owed either $10MM or $11MM installments between 2031-36 if he does not trigger the out clause. If he does opt out, he’d receive a pair of $10MM payments after the 2027 and ’28 seasons. (There’d only be $20MM in deferrals if he opts out after two years.) Burnes has full no-trade rights for the first two years. That would drop to a 14-team no-trade list for the final four seasons if he doesn’t opt out, per the AP.

Arizona now has a projected rotation featuring Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez. Righty Ryne Nelson has pitched well enough to hold a rotation job as well, so the Snakes could consider a six-man starting staff to open the year. Even that wouldn’t leave room for Jordan Montgomery, whose $22.5MM salary the D-Backs would be happy to offload. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported shortly after the Burnes agreement that the Snakes were not on the verge of any rotation trades. That’ll remain a major storyline for the club over the next couple months.

Diamondbacks Sign Corbin Burnes

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The Diamondbacks have officially announced their signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year free agent deal. Burnes, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $210MM and can opt out after two seasons. He’ll collect a $10MM signing bonus up front and is due $30MM salaries in the first two years. He’d need to weigh whether to leave the remaining four years and $140MM on the table after 2026. The contract reportedly includes roughly $60MM in deferred money and varying no-trade protection over the course of the deal.

The news is a shocking turn of events, as Burnes had garnered plenty of interest in free agency but had not been connected to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services such as the Yankees and Red Sox turned to alternative options for the front of their rotations by signing Max Fried and trading for Garrett Crochet respectively, a number of known interested parties remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports offered Burnes a higher guarantee.

However, Burnes lives in Scottsdale, and playing close to home seems to have inspired the right-hander’s decision. According to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic, Burnes was the one who approached the Diamondbacks “expressing a desire to pitch in Arizona.” John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Arizona Sports radio (multiple links to X) reports that the deal came together quickly, as talks between Burnes’ camp and the Snakes only started within the last three or four days. Diamondbacks chairman Ken Kendrick viewed signing Burnes as “too good of an opportunity to pass up,” as a source told Piecoro, and thus Kendrick okayed the biggest contract in franchise history.

Gambadoro writes that the contract contains “a significant amount of” deferred money, and a full no-trade clause covering just the 2025-26 seasons. If Burnes doesn’t opt out, Nightengale notes that Burnes’ no-trade protection is then limited to 14 teams over the final four seasons of the deal. Piecoro, meanwhile, goes into further detail regarding the deferred money. Per Piecoro, Burnes’s contract includes “a little north” of $60MM in deferred money, or between $10MM and $11MM per year deferred. Should Burnes decide to opt out following the 2026 campaign, the more than $20MM in deferred money accrued during the first two years of the deal would then need to be paid out within the following year.

Earlier this offseason, Blake Snell landed a $182MM guarantee from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures ahead of their age-32 campaigns or older. Burnes’ deal falls short of his previously-reported goal of matching the $245MM guarantee the Nationals offered to right-hander Stephen Strasburg during the 2019-20 offseason.

By total guarantee, Burnes’ contract lands close to the seven-year, $200MM prediction that MLBTR made at the start of the offseason as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Burnes ranked second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter, however, and landed a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35MM average annual value of the deal dwarfs the $28.57MM AAV predicted by MLBTR and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s a massive financial outlay that beats out Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5MM deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated that they planned to run a payroll for 2025 that more or less matched their 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173MM on payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes are projected for a $194MM payroll in 2025. That hike of more than $20MM brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a record for payroll just last year. It’s hardly a secret that the club is trying to move on from left-hander Jordan Montgomery on the trade market this winter, but even if the club manages to shed the majority of his salary they’ll have still put themselves into uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.

That’s not to say the risk is a poor one to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s very best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 campaign, where he broke out to finish sixth in NL Cy Young award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes ranks fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP, and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69), and strikeout rate (35.6%).

Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively pedestrian figure started to tick back up towards the end of the season, when he struck out 27.7% of opponents faced in September. While he’s not quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the last three seasons ultimately still cast him as a starter who is clearly capable of fronting a playoff-caliber rotation.

He’ll be tasked with doing exactly that in Arizona this year, as the Diamondbacks appear to be all-in after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2024 despite winning more games than the 84-win 2023 club that managed to secure the NL pennant. Burnes will pair nicely with longtime club ace Zac Gallen at the front of the rotation, with veterans Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez bringing up the middle. Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson represent intriguing options at the back of the club’s rotation, as will Montgomery if he’s not traded before the start of the season. Overall, the club’s rotation mix is among the most robust in the league at the moment on paper and should help to support an offense that lost both Joc Pederson and Christian Walker to free agency this winter. The front office swung a trade to land first baseman Josh Naylor in hopes of helping to plug that hole, but the club nonetheless seems likely to lean heavily on its internal youngsters like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and top prospect Jordan Lawlar at the plate in 2025.

It’s unclear what’s in store for the Diamondbacks going forward this winter given their unprecedented current payroll commitments. The club has long been known to be pining after help at the back of its bullpen this winter, with a trade for Ryan Helsley or signing Kirby Yates among the potential options the club has reportedly considered. Another hitter would also make sense for the club after losing both Walker and Pederson to free agency, preferably a right-handed bat to complement a heavily left-handed lineup. With that being said, it’s entirely possible that the club won’t have room to make additional moves of significance without first shedding salary in the form of Montgomery or another potential trade candidate.

Because Burnes turned down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, Baltimore will receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft. Gaining what currently stands as the 30th overall selection isn’t a bad consolation prize for the Orioles, but since they had designs on retaining Burnes themselves, the O’s are still on the lookout to add more frontline pitching to their rotation.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the D-Backs were signing Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal with an opt-out after year two. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus and the salaries for the first two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Diamondbacks Not Close To Any Pitching Trades

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The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes added a new frontline arm to a rotation that was already operating at a surplus on paper.  Burnes joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson, giving the Snakes an enviably deep group of starting pitchers.  The D’backs had already been drawing trade interest in this group even before Burnes was added, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Burnes signing wasn’t made with any other pitching swaps immediately on the horizon.

According to Piecoro, no “other deals [are] lined up or even close” involving Arizona’s pitchers, as the Diamondbacks will continue to take a measured view of the market.  A source tells Piecoro that the D’Backs will likely “spend the coming days fielding calls from teams still in the hunt for starters, including those that were in on Burnes.”  The D’Backs aren’t in any particular rush to complete a trade any time soon, as having more than a full rotation in place before New Year’s Eve gives the club plenty of time to figure out the best possible offer.

It also isn’t entirely out of the question that the Diamondbacks stand pat on their starters, especially if an injury emerges to a starter during their offseason training, or during Spring Training.  Kelly, Rodriguez, and Montgomery all missed significant time with injuries last season, so there is obvious value in having extra pitchers on hand should any more health issues create openings in the rotation.  Operating with a six-man rotation is also a possibility, in order to keep everyone healthy and fresh for what the D’Backs hope can be an extended run through the playoffs.

Given how the Burnes deal reportedly came together just within the last week when Burnes himself approached the D’Backs, it isn’t surprising that the signing wasn’t part of an immediate plan to re-model the pitching staff.  Such two-step transactions are usually hard to pull off, though the Diamondbacks were part of such a set of moves from the Guardians just last week — Arizona acquired Josh Naylor from the Guards, and Cleveland then signed Carlos Santana that same day to immediately fill Naylor’s spot as the everyday first baseman.

The fact that Burnes signed with a team that was seemingly already set for starting pitching gives GM Mike Hazen even more leverage in shopping his hurlers.  Such known Burnes suitors like the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Giants are still in need of pitching, to say nothing of the many other starter-needy clubs on the market that weren’t willing or able to meet Burnes’ asking price.

Nothing seems to have changed in terms of which starters are most prominently on Arizona’s trade block.  Gallen and Kelly are both free agents next winter but don’t seem likely to be dealt, as a team source told Piecoro that the team’s focus in on “trying to put the best team on the field in 2025.”  Nelson is controlled through the 2027 season and Pfaadt through the 2029 season, so the Diamondbacks would probably only move either if a longer-term asset (likely a position player) could be obtained in return.  The D’Backs might not mind moving the $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s contract, but the club would certainly have to sell low and eat some of that money in the wake of E-Rod’s injury-plagued down year.

That leaves Montgomery as still the chief candidate to be dealt before Opening Day.  Montgomery’s trade value is also at a low ebb after his rough first year in Arizona, and his $22.5MM salary for the 2025 season.  Owner Ken Kendrick’s public criticism of Montgomery following the season only increased the probability that the left-hander would be pitching elsewhere next year, yet again, the Burnes signing gives the D’Backs some flexibility in this regard.  The Diamondbacks technically don’t have to trade Montgomery if an acceptable offer for another starter comes their way, and offers for Montgomery might improve if other teams become increasingly desperate to add pitching.

Orioles, Blue Jays Discussed Franchise-Record Contracts With Corbin Burnes

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Perhaps the most surprising deal of the offseason came together late last night when the Diamondbacks and right-hander Corbin Burnes reportedly reached an agreement on a six-year deal that guarantees Burnes $210MM. It’s a deal that Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports came together rapidly after Burnes’s camp expressed the right-hander’s desire to pitch in the desert. Prior to Burnes pivoting to Arizona, the three teams most frequently connected to the right-hander were the incumbent Orioles, their division rival Blue Jays, and the Diamondbacks’ own division rival Giants.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale previously reported that the Jays and Giants both offered Burnes more than he ultimately received from the Diamondbacks, but subsequent reports have shed more light on the offers Burnes received prior to signing, particularly from Baltimore and Toronto. The Orioles, according to Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner, made a “competitive offer” for Burnes that did not ultimately reach the level of the deal he signed in Arizona. The exact specifics of the club’s offer to Burnes aren’t entirely clear, but it’s worth noting that Nightengale later reported that the Orioles and Blue Jays both discussed franchise-record contracts with Burnes while adding that one AL East club offered Burnes a seven-year, $250MM contract that did not come with an opt-out opportunity. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, described the Blue Jays, Orioles, and one other team from the East divisions as the three biggest bidders for Burnes. That report tracks with Nightengale’s reporting but conflicts with that of Allentuck as Heyman appears to suggest that the Orioles outbid the Diamondbacks for Burnes’s services.

It’s unclear which AL East club made the $250MM offer Nightengale mentioned, and it’s worth noting that both the Yankees and Red Sox were regarded as serious contenders for Burnes’s services before pivoting away from the right-hander to land Max Fried and Garrett Crochet respectively. Both the Orioles and Blue Jays needn’t have gone anywhere near that $250MM level to offer Burnes the largest contract in franchise history; Toronto’s current record for guaranteed money is the six-year, $150MM contract they gave to outfielder George Springer, while the Orioles’ current record is held by former first baseman Chris Davis and his seven-year, $161MM deal. Those relatively low benchmarks make offering Burnes a franchise-record guarantee a somewhat obvious step for either club to take if at all serious about pursuing the right-hander, as he was wildly expected to land a deal in the $200MM range even from the outset of the offseason before the winter’s hot market for starting pitching came into focus.

Regardless of how competitive the offers Burnes received from Baltimore and Toronto ultimately were, both clubs will now have to turn their attention to other options as they look to fortify their rotations. The Blue Jays’ top priority is surely attempting to hammer out an extension with star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that will keep him in town following the 2025 season, when he’s currently scheduled to hit free agency. Aside from that, however, the club has expressed a desire to both bolster their starting rotation while also bringing in a solid hitter who can help protect Guerrero in the lineup. On the rotation front, the club has reportedly shown interest in right-hander Nick Pivetta, but another possibility for the club could be focusing on adding a bat like Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar and then focusing on a lower-level rotation signing like Michael Lorenzen or Spencer Turnbull.

As for the Orioles, the club already landed Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez for its lineup earlier this winter and figures to be focused squarely on replacing Burnes at the front of its rotation going forward. A reunion with Jack Flaherty, who struggled with the club down the stretch in 2023 but looked much better with the Tigers and Dodgers this past season, has been floated as a possible back-up plan in the past. It’s also not difficult to imagine the club opting to explore the trade market, as they did when they first landed Burnes last winter. Padres right-hander Dylan Cease is available as a potential rental ace who mirrors last year’s acquisition of Burnes to a T, but it’s possible the Orioles would prefer to land a more controllable piece such as Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, who they’ve reportedly joined a number of teams in inquiring after this winter.

Giants Considering Pete Alonso

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The Giants already made one big infield addition by signing Willy Adames, and kept Matt Chapman off the free agent market entirely by signing the third baseman to a six-year, $151MM extension back in September.  With the Giants still weighing big moves, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that “Pete Alonso is on their radar” as a significant upgrade to the first base/DH mix.

As it stands, LaMonte Wade Jr. will be getting the bulk of first base at-bats, as the left-handed hitting side of what will likely be a platoon situation.  That said, reports have suggested San Francisco is open to moving Wade, and that the Giants had some interest in signing Paul Goldschmidt before Goldschmidt landed with the Yankees.  Top prospect Bryce Eldridge is viewed as the long-term answer at first base, and with Eldridge making his Triple-A debut in 2024, a shorter-term signing like Goldschmidt made sense as a bridge at the position.

Adding Alonso would only somewhat change that direction.  If Alonso took over the everyday first base role, Wade could be shifted into the part-time DH role, and Wade is a free agent next winter so he might not remain part of the Giants’ future plans.  Eldridge played some outfield in 2023 but is largely viewed as a first baseman going forward, so he and Alonso could form a powerful first base/DH combo even if such an arrangement would lock down both positions for years to come.

There’s also a possibility that Eldridge could become a big trade chip the Giants can dangle to address other needs, or that Alonso wouldn’t necessarily be a long-term addition.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears from various executives around the league that Alonso’s next contract might involve an opt-out clause or two, thus allowing Alonso to re-enter the market potentially as early as the 2025-26 offseason.  Alonso’s agent Scott Boras has included such opt-out provisions in several of his clients’ deals in recent years, in some cases creating an extra level of flexibility for teams and for players coming off less-than-ideal platform years.

It could be argued Alonso is coming off two relative down years, as he has a solid but unspectacular 121 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season.  The first baseman slugged 80 homers and hit .229/.324/.480 in 1353 plate appearances over that span, while providing little value with his glove or on the basepaths.  Clubs are increasingly wary about committing big money to first base-only players in general, and Alonso’s increasingly homer-heavy approach raises questions about his overall offensive value.

Oracle Park may not exactly be the best ballpark for a right-handed hitting slugger to re-establish his value, though Alonso’s options may be increasingly limited.  The Yankees (Goldschmidt), Astros (Christian Walker), Diamondbacks (Josh Naylor), and Nationals (Nathaniel Lowe) have all addressed their needs at first base.  MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern recently looked at Alonso’s market and cited the Giants along with the Reds, Tigers, Blue Jays, as possible darkhorse candidates for the slugger, along with the more obvious possibility that Alonso just re-signs with the Mets.

Indeed, most of the executives who spoke with Feinsand “believe an Alonso/Mets reunion is inevitable,” even if such a deal involves opt-out clauses.  The Mets remain linked to both Alonso and Alex Bregman, leaving the team with an interesting choice of top-tier corner infielders since Mark Vientos can play first or third base depending on who is signed.  (Or, it isn’t entirely out of the question that the aggressive Mets could sign both Bregman and Alonso, with Vientos moving to DH.)  Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “a sizable gap” remains between Alonso and the Mets in their current negotiations.

Because both Adames and Alonso rejected qualifying offers, the Giants would have to surrender two more draft picks and another $1MM in international bonus pool money if they brought Alonso into the fold to join their new shortstop.  This might not necessarily be an obstacle since the Giants already gave up two picks and $1MM to sign Chapman and Blake Snell (two other qualified free agents) last offseason.  RosterResource estimates San Francisco for roughly a $167.1MM payroll and $207.5MM luxury tax number in 2025, so adding Alonso is feasible even if it remains unclear how much ownership is willing to spend on next year’s roster.

The Giants’ pursuit of Corbin Burnes signaled that the club was willing to make another splurge, though Slusser notes that they didn’t offer Burnes more than the $210MM over six years than the righty received from the Diamondbacks.  Indeed, Slusser frames the Giants’ courtship of Burnes as fairly limited, writing that “San Francisco’s pursuit never advanced much beyond initial talks at the general manager meetings…and an offer made at that point did not get things off the ground.”

President of baseball operations Buster Posey addressed the Giants’ next steps in a text to The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, with Posey writing “We believe in our young arms, and feel like they are in a position to take some big steps forward.  [We] will continue to look on the offensive side for players that give us a chance to score runs in multiple ways.”

Corbin Burnes Reportedly Seeking $245MM+

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Corbin Burnes is the remaining headliner of the free agent class. The top starting pitcher is still unsigned despite the generally robust and quick-moving rotation market.

Most of the recent chatter regarding Burnes has centered on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (albeit to a lesser extent in Baltimore’s case). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that San Francisco has had a standing offer on the table, though he notes that the Giants could elect to move on to other targets if there continues to be no resolution on Burnes’ part.

Terms of San Francisco’s proposal are not clear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young winner is looking for a deal that would at least match the $245MM guarantee which Stephen Strasburg received from the Nationals over the 2019-20 offseason. (The net present value of Strasburg’s contract actually checked in around $229MM after accounting for deferrals.) The pre-deferral guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, trailing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325MM contract with the Dodgers and the $324MM Gerrit Cole deal with the Yankees.

It’s unsurprising that Burnes and agent Scott Boras are shooting for Strasburg money in this market. MLBTR predicted Burnes to land seven years and $200MM in early November. Essentially every starter who has signed so far has equalled or beaten those (and most other) predictions. Max Fried was the biggest beneficiary. He landed an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That beat MLBTR’s prediction by two years and $62MM. Fried landed an extra season and $43MM than Aaron Nola received last winter.

Virtually every prognostication had Burnes above Fried. That makes something in the $220MM range feel like the former’s floor. Creating a notable separation would push Burnes close to or beyond Strasburg money. Burnes is nine months younger than Fried. He hasn’t had any injuries of note. That differentiates him from Fried, who missed three months in 2023 because of a muscular flexor strain in his forearm. Burnes has also reached bigger heights, winning the National League ERA title and Cy Young in 2022.

The one question has been a recent dip in swing-and-miss. Burnes fanned upwards of 35% of batters faced between 2020-21. That dropped to roughly 30% in 2022. It has continued to trend down over the past two seasons, falling to a slightly above-average 23.1% rate this year. Even the “diminished” strikeout rate essentially matched Fried’s 23.2% rate, though, so Burnes isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.

That’ll be weighed against the question of which teams still have the willingness to offer a deal well north of $200MM. The Yankees would’ve been an obvious Burnes suitor if they hadn’t landed Fried. They’re probably out of the mix now. The Mets seem unlikely to make a massive commitment to a starting pitcher. The Sox have already acquired Garrett Crochet and agreed to terms with Walker Buehler on a one-year deal, adding significant upside to their rotation. They might have the payroll room to remain involved on Burnes, but they’re no longer facing the same sense of urgency to add an impact arm.

San Francisco might offer the best blend of spending capacity and need for an ace. Logan Webb is a legitimate #1, but the Giants haven’t replaced the production they lost when Blake Snell walked. Beyond Webb, San Francisco’s rotation consists of upside plays with questions about their durability and/or performance track records (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).

The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. They extended Matt Chapman for $151MM in September before adding Willy Adames on a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax number at approximately $208MM, which puts them around $33MM shy of the base threshold. Their actual salary commitments sit around $167MM. That puts them almost $40MM below last year’s spending level. It’s not clear if ownership is willing to again push beyond $200MM in Opening Day payroll, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a significant spike in relative spending.

The Giants relinquished their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM from their ’26 international amateur bonus pool to sign Adames. They’d surrender their third- and sixth-highest selections and another $500K from the international pool if they were to land Burnes, who declined a qualifying offer from Baltimore.

Where Will Corbin Burnes End Up?

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With Blake Snell and Max Fried off the board, Corbin Burnes stands alone at the top of the pitching market. There was some thought that the former Cy Young winner might sign within a day or two of Fried agreeing to an eight-year term at the Winter Meetings. That hasn’t happened, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if Burnes signs before league activity goes quiet with the holidays next week.

Thus far, the starting pitching class has outperformed expectations. That’s most true of Fried, whom few would’ve foreseen getting eight years or handily beating $200MM at the start of the offseason. With Fried securing $218MM, how much should one project upwards on Burnes? Every free agent projection would’ve had Burnes above Fried when the offseason got underway. Fried money feels like a floor for Burnes, whom MLBTR predicted for seven years and $200MM just six weeks ago.

That said, the Yankees and Mets were two of the most obvious on-paper fits at the start of the offseason. The Yankees can safely be ruled out after the Fried deal. The Mets are still in the market for starting pitching and have the payroll room to lurk as a threat on Burnes even after landing Juan Soto. Yet it seems the Mets’ focus for starting pitching has been on the middle tiers. They added Frankie Montas and converted Clay Holmes to the rotation, preferring more affordable upside plays than a quick strike for any of free agency’s top three arms. They’re reportedly still interested in re-signing Sean Manaea, which would very likely close the door on a Burnes acquisition.

Recent rumors have most prominently connected Burnes to a few teams: the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and (to a lesser extent) the Orioles. Boston is still engaged in the rotation market after landing Garrett Crochet last week. Trading for Crochet leaves them with ample payroll space — the former White Sox staff ace is projected for a meager $2.9MM arbitration salary — but could indicate that the Sox weren’t keen on the climbing cost for free agent starting pitching.

The Giants would benefit greatly from an ace they could plug alongside Logan Webb in the rotation to replace Snell’s production. Yet San Francisco has already made a pair of big investments ($151MM on the Matt Chapman extension, $182MM for Willy Adames) within the past few months. Does ownership have interest in a deal that should easily exceed those already significant contracts?

Depending on how one feels about the Andrés Giménez trade, it’s debatable whether the Blue Jays have made a splash acquisition this offseason. They were heavily involved on Soto and Fried but watched both players head elsewhere. Their front office could be most motivated to land a marquee free agent, but they’re also faced with some payroll questions. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote last week that the Jays landing Burnes “doesn’t seem especially likely,” suggesting the organization could prefer to focus on a bat as its biggest addition while looking for a cheaper rebound target on the rotation front.

Maybe that opens the opportunity for the incumbent Orioles to make a push. GM Mike Elias has said that the ownership change has allowed the O’s front office to explore the top of the rotation market. (They reportedly were involved on Snell, in particular.) Still, it’s fair to take a “believe it when I see it” approach for Baltimore. The O’s have brought up spending since David Rubenstein purchased the franchise in April. They took on Zach Eflin’s $18MM salary in a deadline trade with the Rays and signed Tyler O’Neill for three years and $49.5MM last week. Yet neither investment is close to what it’d take to retain Burnes.

How will the Burnes situation play out? Will there be a late push by a mystery team to land him, and how much will it take? Is he soon to be the latest beneficiary of a bullish rotation market, or is the number of teams willing to make a $200MM+ investment drying up?

 

 

Latest On Blue Jays’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Blue Jays made a major splash during the Winter Meetings this past week, swinging a trade with the Guardians that sent slugger Spencer Horwitz (very briefly) to Cleveland in exchange for second baseman Andres Gimenez and right-hander Nick Sandlin. The club also reunited with right-hander Yimi Garcia on a two-year deal during the meetings to bolster their relief mix. Now that they’ve made those additions to the bullpen and infield Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote about the club’s needs going forward into the rest of the offseason, noting that the club is interested in adding an impactful slugger to the middle of the lineup to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as a starting pitcher who could push Yariel Rodriguez into the bullpen for the club.

It’s hardly a surprise that the club is looking to upgrade the roster in these areas given the players they’ve been connected to this winter. In the aftermath of the club’s failed pursuit of Juan Soto, Toronto has been name-checked as a potential suitor for corner outfield sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander. Nicholson-Smith opines that the outfield appears to be the “most logical” place for the club to add impact now that the addition of Gimenez has helped to solidify the club’s infield mix, particularly given the fact that center fielder Daulton Varsho is expected to start the 2025 season on the injured list after undergoing surgery on his rotator cuff back in September.

With that said, Nicholson-Smith also suggests that the club could add a more defensively-limited player to their lineup as well after parting ways with a similarly limited player in Horwitz opened up additional DH reps. To that end, Nicholson-Smith reiterates the club’s interest in Hernandez while also floating two other names worth mentioning: free agent DH Joc Pederson and Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. Nicholson-Smith lists Pederson alongside Hernandez and Corbin Burnes among free agents the Jays have spoken to this winter, and he reports that the club is “believed to have shown some interest” in Naylor during their negotiations with Cleveland surrounding the Gimenez trade.

It’s the first time that Toronto has been directly connected to Pederson this winter, though it was just one year ago that the club was reported to have “strong interest” in the slugger before he ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks later in the winter. The soon to be 33-year-old put up a strong season in Arizona in 2024, slashing .275/.393/.515 with a 151 wRC+ in 449 trips to the plate. While Pederson’s massive platoon splits make him a somewhat lackluster option against opposing southpaws, the club’s deep group of young right-handed hitters like Leo Jimenez and Davis Schneider could be a natural fit to step into the lineup for him against tough lefties.

Naylor, meanwhile, is more of a true everyday player who sports a less significant platoon split and more defensive value but a less potent bat overall. The 27-year-old has some experience in the outfield corners but has primarily been a first baseman for the Guardians in recent year. 2024 saw Naylor slash a solid .243/.320/.456 (118 wRC+) that was mostly in line with previous years, as he’s a 121 wRC+ hitter overall since becoming a full-time player in 2022. It’s unclear if the Jays have interest in Naylor even after completing the Gimenez deal, but he certainly makes sense as a trade candidate for the Guardians given the $12MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for the slugger in his final trip through arbitration before he reaches free agency next winter. Cleveland has well-regarded youngster Kyle Manzardo available to step in as the regular first baseman should Naylor be dealt at some point this winter.

As for pitching, Nicholson-Smith suggests that while landing Burnes in free agency “doesn’t seem especially likely,” the club pursuing an impact starter can’t be ruled out with left-hander Sean Manaea’s name floated as one possible option. It’s unclear if the club is interested in Manaea specifically, but a pitcher of that caliber could solidify the club’s rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt while pushing Rodriguez to the bullpen after he posted a lackluster 90 ERA+ in 21 starts last year. Attractive as that may seem to Blue Jays fans, Nicholson-Smith cautions that it’s unclear whether the Jays would have the stomach to make an impact addition both to the rotation and the lineup this winter.

RosterResource puts the club’s luxury tax number at just over $228MM, meaning they have around $12MM remaining in the budget before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. Even on impact addition seems certain to carry them past that mark, but a second one would run the risk of pushing them into the uncharted territory of surpassing the second threshold, which sits at $261MM in 2025. Given that, Nicholson-Smith suggests the club may have to choose between targeting an impact slugger and an impact starter before making a lower-level addition to address the other need. Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are among the veteran sluggers who may be available for relatively cheap in free agency, while back-end starting options who wouldn’t break the bank include players like Michael Lorenzen and Colin Rea.

Latest On Giants, Corbin Burnes

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With Max Fried joining the Yankees and Garrett Crochet landing with the Red Sox, all eyes are on Corbin Burnes. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was always, arguably, the best starter up for grabs this winter on either the free agent market or the trade block. Now, he might be the only ace-level pitcher left available.

On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested the Blue Jays and Giants would be the two most “aggressive” teams in pursuit of Burnes, though he described the Blue Jays as the favorites. His sources were “skeptical” that San Francisco could beat Toronto in a bidding war, given that the Giants already signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM contract earlier this month. This morning, however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants, not the Blue Jays, are the “heavy favorites” to sign the All-Star right-hander.

On a similar note, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey met with agent Scott Boras late on Tuesday evening, presumably to discuss his client Burnes. Yet, Heyman does not categorize the Giants as the clear favorites, writing that both Toronto and San Francisco are making a “strong push” for the ace. He adds that four more teams are still in the mix for Burnes’s services, including his former team, the Orioles. As Heyman mentions, the Yankees and Red Sox are also thought to be interested, at least to some degree, even after adding Fried and Crochet, respectively. However, it’s not clear who the sixth team Heyman refers to could be. The Mets might have seemed like another potential landing spot, especially before they signed Juan Soto, but Tim Healey of Newsday Sports reported on Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to sign Burnes.

Turning back to the Giants, this is a team that could certainly use another top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Their starters finished 18th in ERA and 29th in innings pitched this past season. Some of their underlying numbers were more promising, such as the ninth-best SIERA in MLB, but after losing Blake Snell, it’s hard to imagine the Giants rotation, as currently constructed, could perform better in 2025. Other than ace Logan Webb, no Giants starter threw more than 125 innings in 2024. Robbie Ray is a huge question mark after missing much of the past two seasons with injuries. Jordan Hicks ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately had to move back to the bullpen. He also dealt with shoulder issues in August and September. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong are promising young arms but have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Neither have Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, or Mason Black.

At the Winter Meetings, Posey told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he has “a lot of belief” in his young pitchers and expressed hope they will “take a big step forward” in 2025. Still, the Giants could use another arm to depend on at the top of the rotation. Other than Webb, it’s not clear who on this team could start in a postseason series. Needless to say, Burnes could fill that role. If not Burnes, Pavlovic suggests the Giants are “likely” to sign another veteran starter. They haven’t been linked to many others yet, although they expressed interest in NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano earlier this winter. According to Pavlovic, they were also in on Shane Bieber before he re-signed with the Guardians.

Red Sox Remain In Rotation Market Following Crochet Deal

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The Red Sox landed the offseason’s top rotation trade candidate this afternoon. Even after acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a four-prospect package, Boston is on the hunt for starting pitching.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that the Sox remained in the rotation market after the Crochet acquisition (Bluesky link via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). The Globe’s Alex Speier reports (on X) that Boston is still engaged on Corbin Burnes as well as mid-tier rotation targets.

That could evidently take the form of either a free agent move or a trade. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that the Sox are still having discussions with the Mariners regarding their starting pitching. Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported on Monday that Seattle rebuffed interest in a framework that would’ve sent one of their young starters to the Sox for first baseman Triston Casas. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken repeatedly of the organization’s reluctance to even consider moving George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller.

Luis Castillo could be a different story. The Mariners are reportedly open to discussing Castillo, whom they owe $68.25MM over the next three seasons. The deal also has a vesting option for 2028. According to Mark Feinsand and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, there’s a belief within the industry that the righty is available (X link). There should be trade value, as Castillo’s deal aligns with what Luis Severino and Nathan Eovaldi have landed on three-year free agent deals. Yet Castillo isn’t as appealing as the M’s young core of much more affordable starters. That price tag surely plays into the M’s willingness to listen to offers, as they’re reportedly working with around $15-20MM in payroll room and could use multiple hitters.

It’s unlikely that the Mariners would trade Castillo strictly for prospects. They’d presumably need an MLB hitter to anchor the return. Casas might be too big an ask if they’re not sending one of their younger arms to Boston. Outfielder Wilyer Abreu is another potential Red Sox trade candidate, though the M’s have less need for an outfielder than they do for an impact bat in the corner infield like Casas.

Whether anything will come of the Sox’s pursuits remains to be seen. At the very least, it’s clear Breslow and his front office aren’t fully satisfied with a rotation comprising Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Lucas Giolito. They gave up a good package of young talent to get Crochet, but he’s eminently affordable from a financial perspective. Boston should have the flexibility to continue identifying free agent targets or take on a notable salary in trade.

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