Posts by I ain't Spartacus

There was a man caught by the police with his john thomas shoved up the exhaust pipe of a Ford Fiesta. There's no accounting for taste.

Hope the engine had been given a decent time to cool down.

And I suppose, at least it wasn't an Escort...

I'm not sure about gateways creating a desire for the next step up the ladder 'o doom. But I'm pretty sure there is evidence for "normalisation" of behaviours leading to more of them. Quite how strong that evidence is, and whether it's going to get debunked in future is another matter. But I think there's been some evidence for the "nudge" type stuff that's so popular in government and big business at the moment. From offering you that humungous chocolate bar while you're buying someting in Smiths to the things like how you state things. So there have been some studies (though I've heard rumblings of opposition and not myself read the papers) where they got numbers of missed doctors appointments down by just changing the terminology. Signs saying, "almost 10% of people miss appointments and waste our time please stop doing this" are argued to normalise the behaviour - whereas the sign "over 95% of patients attend booked appointments please help us to improve this" apparently do get missed appointments down. This is just linked to social conditioning.

I've then seen people working with child sex offenders saying that there's a rise in people actively pursuing the behaviours. One argument is that this stuff was harder to get, but also it was harder to find like-minded people, since it's not something you can just bring up in conversation. But with the internet, you can find that you're not the only person like you. Now whether the extra access to child porn the internet gives is the cause of a rise in use, or whether it's down to a reinforcement of behaviours due to finding a "peer group" is another matter, and I don't know if the trick-cyclists have come to a conclusion on that. Or even if there's a way to experimentally validate it.

Social conditioning is a powerful influence on our behaviour.

Re: DC Deluge

This has been frequently cited to me by fire brigades and various civil engineers as an outstanding reason why water points should always be under a pavement access plate.

Of course if one was to do this in the USA, dog bladders would explode.

Not just that, Think of all the Hollywood car chases that would be ruined!

With any change, one must assess the all-important unintended consequences.

We once dealt with a flood where the period of the waves in a 200,000 litre water tank managed to exactly line up, so that enough water would disappear down the other end to cause the float-valve to open - and that slug of incoming water nicely added to the returning wave in a lovely feedback loop. All until the many tonnes of water hit the end of the tank so hard it simply flew off across the room. The basement suddenly became a very wet place indeed...

Re: I got my virus scammer into a furious antisemitic raving...

My brother, quite an RP / BBC english voice, managed to wind one of them up into a screaming rage too. After he'd realised he'd been had our Indian friend screamed, "fuck off you fucking paki" at him. Much to my brother's credit he managed to avoid laughing, and replied, "no you fuck off, you phoned me."

At which point they got into a bizarre 2 minute exchange consisting of the Indian guy saying, "fuck off!" but not hanging up, and my brother saying, "no, you fuck off first." By which point I was in pain from laughing.

You'd have thought the guy would just want to get onto the next call, which might make some money, but I guess he was too pissed off.

Yeah, my Mum got the call from "TalkTalk" when she was expecting a real one. And their call centres are also in India, so it was hard to tell. Fortunately all they did with Team Viewer was to take her to the Western Union transfer website, at which point her scam alarms went off, and she called me to detoxify the computer.

I recently read that not only had they lost all their users records, but their enineering database has also been hacked, so I'm not sure if this was just dumb luck or good planning from the scumbags.

Re: Ahh makes sense now

So, is it time to finally upgrade? Got a Lumia 735, still happily on 8.1. Is it worth taking the plunge to upgrade? Or should I just stick with what I've got? I quite like the OS, even though there's too many apps missing. It's got the benefit of being easy to use, and having big buttons (and big writing). Very useful for stabbing at it when walking, and not wearing reading glasses.

Re: Misread this...

Well you have to eat with special utensils in space - because liquids behave all funny, and you don't want them spread all round the station, and in the air filters.

So he's been leading a gravy-less (as well as almost gravityless) exisitence for the last 6 months. And now has to master the delicate task of getting foods such as cabbage or yorkshires into his mouth, without dribbling gravy down his chin / shirt.

Hopefully this is part of the vital space medicine research that he is undertaking.

Obviously radiation exposure and loss of bone density are a massive problem to be overcome on any trip to Mars. But it's a concept too horrible to contemplate, that returning astronauts might find themselves medically unable to eat yorkshire puddings again!

Re: The Alternative Solution

This is a lot harder than it looks. And we're currently short of several technologies to do it.

You need to be doing 17,500 mph to get into orbit. That's quite quick. As well as being a long way to go up. And there are various technical challenges to overcome in a working spaceship.

Wings are extremely attactive, as they cover the going up bit rather efficiently, and a lot of the weight of the rocket is stupid amounts of rocket fuel needed purely to lift the other stupid amounts of rocket fuel the first few thousand feet. But there's a big problem with wings. Once you're in the upper atmosphere and space they stop doing you any good, and are now just added weight. But even worse, when you try to bring your spaceship back down to earth, they become incredibly dangerous. because now, in order to get down from insanely fast orbital velocities to sensible lower atmosphere aeroplane ones, you have to aerobrake. Using friction with the atmosphere to slow you down. And this is hot. Hence the shuttle being covered in ceramic tiles, which are quite heavy. And if enough break off means you kill everyone. You could of course do more braking in space, but that means carrying the fuel up there, which means less payload, which means you can't do the stuff you went up there for.

Going for a lifting-body, rather than wings, might help a lot here though. The Shuttle's wings were apparently an Air Force idea, to do sneaky moves back down from orbits no-one was expecting.

The next problem is engines. Jets are great in the lower atmosphere, but even ramjets need air to work. Once you've gone too high for that, you still have to carry your own oxidisers - and you get more whoosh-for-your-weight with rocket fuel than jet fuel. If you have two engines, then that's extra weight to take up there and bring back down - we don't yet have a hybrid engine to do both. Though Reaction Engines are working on something to do this job. But their design only gets a few passegers or a small satellite up there, it doesn't do heavy lift.

One thing that helps might be to split the craft. You have a chunky old Jumbo Jet type thing (or Virgin's White Knight) to do the runway take off, carrying the actual spaceship up to 40-50,000 feet. Then releasing it and coming back down to land. That's your superflous jets and big wings. You then only need to design something to start at 500mph at 45,000ft - but that still needs a dirty great rocket strapped on the back, or to have some hybrid air-breathing/rocket engine we've not yet designed.

Which is why we're still using rockets. And SpaceX decided to try the hard problem of landing one, rather than the even harder wings/lifting-body thing.

Re: A broken watch tells the right time twice a day?

I'm not sure I agree that charging a watch every night is all that hard. I leave mine on, but most people I know take their watch off when they go to bed. If the charging cable / pad is already on the bedside table - why's that so hard to do? Not that I have a smart watch, given I'd have to take my reading glasses out of my bag to be able to do anything other than telling the time on that small a screen, whereas I can get my phone out of my pocket one-handed and the text is set large enough to squint at without glasses.

It's the same with phones though. They need a daily charge, and you just get used to it. It goes on the table by the bed, with the alarm set to wake me up, so it ain't hard to plug it in. This one has a coil in the back, so I could get a charging pad if I liked, but £25 seems like too much money to save the oh so onerous task of picking up the end of the lead from the table-top and shoving it in the phone as I put it down.

Admittedly it's a bit harder when you travel, and you've got phone and tablet chargers to remember. And if it's for longer cords for shaver and toothbrush too. So adding an extra phone charger and possibly another adapter is more of an annoyance.

Mum went to visit friends in Khartoum. Her luggage consisted of two suitcases barely containing the lightest Summer clothing she had. A couple of books. A bunch of cauliflower, leeks and apples packed amongst the clothes, them being the fresh veg her friends desperately wanted to eat. Marmite, chocolate and peanut butter. A 20kg container of tools for a car mechanic. Her luggage came to 80kg (about 15kg of it hers) - and her excess baggage charge came to nothing. People flying to Africa travel heavy. Those same friends subsequently moved to Nigeria - and on one trip took a washing machine as luggage - Ian managed to talk his way out of the excess baggage charge - as usual.

Watching him pack was amazing. He had scales and various pilles of stuff for family and friends to be whittled down. Then each case would be packed in priority order, so he knew what to give up when the airline finally decided he was taking the piss. Those items would go back with whoever gave him a lift to the airport, and taken on subsequent trips, or by visitors.

Re: Hertfordshite?!?

My mobile phone punishes me for swearing in texts. Because I have dared to use a few strong words at times, it now tries to select them in predictive text, whenever I'm not looking too closely.

Actually I've noticed that a lot with predictive text. When I've got my reading glasses on, it's as good as gold. When I'm in a hurry, and just trying to get a message out like "does 7 o'clock suit you?", it goes all sweary on me. I'd hope that 7 o'clock doesn't shit anyone, but sadly it's a question I've accidentally asked...

Just saying that the two are completely different doesn't make it a fact.

Yes it does. It's a fact that the ERM was a system of exchange rate pegs which needed continuous active market intervention to maintain, once they became disconnected from the underlying economics. There are only limited ways to hold onto an exchange rate peg, and they have their own economic consequences. Even the Swiss had to give up on their's (and allow the franc to rise) which was actually allowing them to print free money and sell it to foreigners, they were so desperate to exchange their Euros for Swiss francs. Whereas we were trying to keep sterling from falling, which is the much more expensive way. They were forced out against their will, because of the cost in limited reserves and required interest rates.

The EU is a political construct. After losing a referendum the government has the option to stall and try to renegotiate, offering another referendum. But if it ignores the result, then it's ignoring democracy. That would create the biggest constitutional crisis since 1911 and destroy the Conservative Party. It's simply not a feasible option.

Also, you can't have a Remain campaign that warns of economic disaster and then say, "we're surpirsed by the economic disaster so we're annulling the result". Voters were warned and still went ahead. You're living in fantasy-land if you think otherwise. The ERM was not a choice, it was an event the government was force to respond to, the EU membership is a political choice.

" There's a clear majority of voters in polls who'd like to stay in a reformed EU."

Really? How do you know that since we don't even know what a "reformed EU" would look like?

Because I've read the polls perhaps?

The polls do not state what people mean by reform. But the point is that there are many people who have no strong opinions either way, or strong opinions both ways, who can probably be swayed by the right reforms. It's pretty clear that one of those is a limit on migration. I saw a poll the other day that said 60% of voters believed leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, but only 29% thought the economy was the top issue in the referendum. With 45% saying the top issue is immigration. If Remain lose, the EU's inflexibility on immigration will be the reason. Plus a pretty poor campaign.

If sterling drops by 10% it will have a limited effect on ordinary people. Even 20%. In 2008 sterling fell by 20%, and inflation only hit 4%. The point about exchange rate movements is that they cushion shocks to the internal economy. That's the whole reason why the Euro has been such a disaster. Well that and astonishing levels of incompetence.

Voyna i Mor,

If Sterling drops by 10% overnight, we just ignore it. And it'll probably bounce back to a normal-ish level once the panic is over.

Although given our currently growing trade deficit (with the EU - we have a trade surplus with the rest of the world) sterling is naturally going to drop at some point anyway - and this may be the trigger as much as anything else.

As to a crisis in government debt pricing, our average debt maturity is incredibly long, so the immidiate needs of re-financing are relatively low. We are however running a government deficit. So there's a funding need, but the Bank of England can always launch QE.

Anyway fears of a market panic on government debt are massively overblown. We keep hearing it, but in the current economic climate the markets have to put their money somewhere. Given that Italy can borrow almost as cheaply as Germany, and even Greece can get short term paper sold - I see no likelihood of a long term problem here. When we got downgraded it had pretty much zero effect. If the worst happens, the Bank of England will just have to launch more QE.

As for leaving the ERM vs ignoring a referendum, the two are completely different. If the government says stuff's bad so we're ignoring you, it won't last the week, before a vote of no confidence and general election. Whereas we were forced out of the ERM because it wasn't possible to stay in. Leaving the EU may cost us more, but is a possibility.

On the other hand a renegotiation and second referendum is possible. Unlikely though. But the rest of the EU governments are starting to worry now. The logical thing to do is for a bit of consulting before launching article 50 of the treaty (to start the formal 2 year leave negotiations). And in that process it may be that a deal on immigration curbs could be offered? The 4 freedoms aren't so inviolable that they stopped the Eurozone imposing supposedly illegal Capital Controls on Greece last year, and Cyprus in 2014. Several of the Eurozone bailouts were illegal before they were done, and the ECB has broken the treaties several times in it's various gyrations. If there's the political will, something could be negotiated that Cameron felt was worth re-running the referendum with a good chance of winning. There's a clear majority of voters in polls who'd like to stay in a reformed EU. Myself I don't think the politicians can dance fast enough to come up with a deal before political pressure kicks in, and they may not even want to anyway.

Re: Although Tasers were introduced as non-lethal weapons.....

Indeed, tasers should only be used as a last resort to protect the officers/public from a dangerous criminal who is likely to inflict harm.

Pepper spray, TASERs, choke holds, generally grappling with people or just hitting them with big sticks are all alternatives to firearms. But they're all dangerous, to both the person in question and the police. For pepper spray you've got to get close, and I believe people have died after inhaling that as well.

So in a lot of cases there is no "safe" method of dealing with people, and the police on the spot get to choose their poison. Hopefully they do a good job. The downside of giving them something like a TASER is that they're obviously going to be tempted to use it rather than risking getting bruised, or worse. But then the upside is the same thing, fewer police injuries. And you can bet than in a physical fight serious enough to injure an officer, there's also a risk to the other guy. So even they might be better off getting tasered, even if they do also miss out on the pleasure of punching a copper...

Re: ...behaviour and welfare of a man. A man subsequently died.

A man gets a name once there's been a chance to tell his relatives.

Re: @I ain't Spartacus

Vines,

That depends on the area of policy. Short of armed force or economic pressure, no government can enforce its voters' demands on another. The difference with being in the EU is that it interferes with our legal system as well. Something we're quite vulnerable to, having no written constitution and a different legal system to the rest of the continent. Also Norway has to comply with "only" about 1,700 pieces of EU primary and secondary legislation. For us it's over 11,000. They're only involved in trade and free movement matters - we also have CAP, fisheries, foreign policy, energy, environment, justice, economic, tax etc.

Now the Swiss have democracy. They told their government to negotiate, it's tried, and looks to have failed. So the voters know what's on offer, and can choose the policy they want, knowing the cost.

If our government fails in EU negotiations, we have to lump it. Except in this one specific case. You can only do the referendum once a generation. Even there, we got the bare minimum it was thought might work, rather than a sensible discussion on desperately needed reform. That contempt for the voters may have destroyed the EU. Just like telling the Swiss voters to fuck off may destroy that trade deal. And ignoring the Italian, Greek and Spanish voters may eventually destroy the Euro. Actually and the German voters. They were also lied to when they joined the Euro - and their government are still lying now. Claiming Greece can pay them back. It can't. They could have bailed Greece out in 2010 for €10 billion. The cost now is at least 10 times that, plus much German and EU credibility, and also shame. They claim to be the moral ones now, but history will not be kind to Merkel.

I was a reluctant in voter until the day last year the ECB broke all treaty law and common sense to deliberately destroy the Greek banking system and democracy. Under heavy pressure from Germany. They also brought down the Greek government in 2012, destroying the Pasok party, and forced Spain and Italy to change policies under threat of destroying the credibility of their government bonds. Which also brought down the Italian government. Not a sad loss admittedly, it was Berlusconi's last. But democracy is important - and those actions crossed a line. Hubris may soon meet Nemesis. I'd have preferred reform though, it's safer.

Hard to know for sure but countries that already have a trade deal with the EU are bound by EU laws and have signed up to the EU freedom of movement agreement

Disclaimer: I don't believe we'd be likely to get a free trade deal with the EU without allowing freedom of movement. Though it might just be possible after a decade or two of negotiation?

But, Canada have a trade deal without. Most of the EU's trade deals don't involve freedom of movement. It's a political decision to insist on it around here, which I'd say is unlikely to change. Though there's talk of a free trade deal with North Africa, and I bet there won't be freedom of movement on offer there But then Norway and Switzerland are both in Schengen and the Single Market (well only partially for Switzerland). Which is different to a free trade deal.

Although Norway and Switzerland are agreed to free movement (or disagreed in the Swiss case), they don't have to harmonise access to benefits in the same way. So were we to leave we could refuse to pay in-work, unemployment and child benefits to people we don't choose to, and I assume the same might be true for the NHS, we could make people pay an insurance for that too, until granted "permanent residence status" of some kind. There are many options, which we might use to reduce low-skilled migration. Although one of the best ways to cut the migration numbers to the UK would be if the fucking Eurogroup would sort their shit out, and actually fix the Eurozone! But there's not much sign of that happening any time soon. The latest IMF prediction in the bail-out debt sustainability analysis, is that Greek unemployment will fall from it's current 1930s Depression level of 25% to about 12% by 2040! Now that's how to run an economy! And quite a lot of that fall is expected to be achieved by emigration. Well with youth unemployment at 50%, wouldn't you?

Also, Switzerland and Norway are only signed up to something like 20% of EU rules by being in the Single Market. That still leaves them the ability to sign their own trade deals, and out of the Common Fisheries and Agriculture Policies. As well as safely out of the Euro, and the Foreign Policy and tax harmonisation stuff.

Any country that exports into the Single Market is subject to large chunks of the same regulations, in order to make their products compliant. In the same way that you have to comply with lots of US laws in order to trade in the US.

The upside of being in the EU is that you can influence the rules. Subject to getting outvoted. The downside is that you're subject to a lot more of those rules than any flavour of leaving (either EEA or even fully out).

In my opinion the only sane option on Brexit is the Norway option. Nothing else can be negotiated in a sensible time. But done as a temporary deal with more negotiations to slowly follow. That means we pay in a bit less cash and get a bit less inward migration, in the short term and that gives everyone time to calm down and come up with a sensible agreement.

Either that or the other governments accept a 2 speed Europe, which is what we actually have anyway with some countries unwilling to join the Euro. If they'd done that, then Cameron would have won the referendum easily, but they only gave the minimum concessions that looked likely to work - and that may now backfire spectacularly. To be honest I still think it's more likely than not that the Euro will implode when the next recession comes (not that Souther Europe have ever really got out of recession) - and quite possibly take the EU with it. But the Italian economy is now smaller than when it joined the Euro, with deflation, youth unemployment of 40%, extremely low growth and a huge government debt which it can only service with some growth or inflation. Plus a half-collapsed banking system that the new Eurozone banking rules make it impossible to restructure. That's the quiet crisis currently going on. Spain, Cyprus and Ireland are doing OK-ish, Portugal is too small to matter if/when it goes wrong again, and Greece is a shameful stain on the reputations of the governments that have fucked it up for short-term political gain.

It's possible certain that the UK government will pass all sorts of rubbish laws in the future. As will the EU. The difference is that we can get rid of UK governments at regular intervals, and replace them with ones that will fix some of those laws. It is admittedly true that democracy is a blunt instrument, unless you go for the Swiss referenda-on-everything model, so only a few bad laws are going to get enough public focus to be changed.

But that's still better than the EU model. Where once the hugely complex rigmarole of passing EU laws has happened, there's not only no political will to fix the problem, but there's active resistaance from teh system to go back and look at stuff again. And there's no democratic pressure that reaches that level. Youth unemployment in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain has been over 40% for more than 5 years now, and there's still no serious moves underway to solve the Eurozone crisis. And that's despite massive political turmoil in those countries. What chance anything like patent law problems getting any political attention?

Not that there aren't many good reasons to stay in the EU, and shape policy. But if you can't at least see the huge democratic deficit then you're just not looking properly.

Gizmo, obviously.

Or if you want a word that's a bit more old fashioned, gewgaw.

Greek geeks grok great gyrating gewgaw.