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Paul Craig Roberts
Institute for Political Economy
Is Reality Gaining a Foothold on Putin’s Thinking?
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Is Reality Gaining a Foothold on Putin’s Thinking?
Paul Craig Roberts
As Laura Logan says, American journalism is a bloodsport that massacres truth-tellers. https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/19/the-american-media-is-a-collection-of-whores-who-prostitute-themselves-for-money/
I have been labeled almost every name in the book–conspiracy theorist, Putin agent/dupe, Reagan fascist, anti-semite, holocaust denier, left-wing nutcase, right-wing nutcase, domestic terrorist, racist. Unable to refute my analysis, they call me names.
Nevertheless, I find it satisfying when people of statute and importance, such as Putin, come around to my point of view. For example, in his recent legendary year end press conference and four hour question and answer session, Putin agreed with me that the beneficiary of Syria’s overthrow was Israel. But Putin again misread the consequences. He attributed Israel’s occupation of the southern part of what was Syria to Israel’s legitimate security concerns and expressed his hope that Israel would eventually withdraw its forces from Syrian territory. It is nonsensical for Putin to think Israel might withdraw from Greater Israel. The Israeli government has announced its plan to double the Jewish population in the occupied area. “We will continue to hold onto it, cause it to blossom, and settle in it,” announced the Israeli government. It seems that Putin forgot about Greater Israel. Lebanon and Iran are Israel’s next targets. With Syria gone, the road is open.
Whereas Putin agrees that Israel was the winner, he rejects any responsibility for Syria’s disappearance, denying to an American journalist that Russia was weakened by the overthrow of Syria. Putin blamed Syria’s fall on the refusal of the Syrian army and Iranian-backed militias to fight. He didn’t explain why the Syrian Army, if it still had Russian air support, would suddenly change its mind after 10 years and stop fighting. Putin asserted that the American-backed terrorist forces underwent an “internal transformation” as evidenced by the willingness of Western nations to engage with them, thus achieving “the core Russian objective” in Syria. I find it difficult to believe that Putin spent 8 or more years fighting for Syria only in order to bring the terrorists and their Washington sponsors together, especially when Washington has been the terrorists sponsors the entire time.. It is this kind of explanation that causes me worries about Putin. Once again, my concern is that nuclear war is a likely consequence of Putin’s attempts to avoid it. (Putin appears to be mistaken about the “internal transformation” of the terrorists: https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/behold-what-we-have-done-by-overthrowing-assad-in-syria ; https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/behold-the-results-of-assad-overthrow-in-syria).
As readers know, I place the blame for the widening of the conflict in Ukraine on Putin for coming so late to the realization of reality and for being unprepared. In defending Russia’s intervention, Putin admitted that his intervention was too long delayed and that he was not prepared. So, take note Putin defenders and get off my back. Putin agrees with me. From RT’s report of Putin’s Q&A session:
“Asked if he would have changed his decision to send troops to Ukraine in February 2022 if he could go back in time, Putin firmly replied that Russia should have done it earlier. “With this kind of [prior] knowledge, we should have started preparing for this action, including the special military operation,” he said.
“The president noted that the decision to launch the military campaign was made without much preparation because Russia “could no longer tolerate” Ukraine’s behavior, referring to Kiev’s aspirations to acquire nuclear weapons and its open refusal to abide by the now-defunct Minsk agreements, which sought to give Donbass a special status within the Ukrainian state.” https://www.rt.com/russia/609580-putin-hosts-annual-question-session/
Thinking over my listings of Putin’s strategic failures — https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/19/is-putin-capable-of-strategic-thinking/ — they seem to be failures to anticipate. Putin did not anticipate the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, Washington’s coup in Ukraine, the invasion of Kursk, the renewed American/Israeli assault on Syria. But Russian intelligence must have. Does Putin not listen to information he doesn’t want to hear? Does he balance the information away in accommodating other interests ?
Once again, my concerns are that the needlessly long drawn-out conflict in Ukraine, the loss of Syria without a fight, the Kursk invasion, Washington’s inroads into Armenia, Washington’s attempts at color revolution in Georgia, the US/NATO firing of missiles into Russia which never receive an appropriate response have all contributed to Russia’s lost of credibility in the eyes of the West. This will make it difficult for President Trump to accept a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine that is favorable to Putin and Russia. This will make it difficult for Putin to deliver the promised result. How can Russia prevail if Washington impacts the outcome? With Washington and Israel on a roll, Putin cannot expect Trump to accept Russia’s terms for ending the conflict. Refurbishing Washington’s hegemony is part of Making America Great Again.
Again, I believe the world should respect Putin’s restraint in the face of extraordinary provocations. He is opposed to war, and accepts insults and provocations in his efforts to avoid wider war.
The question remains: Are Putin’s efforts to avoid war overdone and do they send the wrong message and bring war upon us? Putin should give this question careful thought.