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Paul Craig Roberts
Institute for Political Economy
Where Life and Freedom Stand
Where Life and Freedom Stand
Paul Craig Roberts
I appreciate the confidence that readers show in me by their many emails asking if there really is to be war between the US and Russia and whether it is possible for Trump to achieve anything. I cannot possibly answer individually and continue to write and research for this website. I try to anticipate questions and explain as clearly as I can in my postings.
Whether or not there will be war between the US and Russia depends on whether Washington continues its provocations of Russia. The latest provocation is the sending of missiles into a limited area of Russia. This is risky and irresponsible, because the Russian government has stated that the missiles can be operated only by US and NATO personnel. Therefore, missile strikes inside Russia place the West at war with Russia. This is especially serious, because recent changes in Russian war doctrine permit Russia to respond with nuclear weapons to any attack. The nuclear response can be to the entire West, even if it was a conventional attack on Russia by a US/NATO ally.
The danger of such a Russian response is mitigated by the fact that Russian President Putin is a humanitarian who does not want his rescue of the Donbas Russians from slaughter by the hostile Ukrainians to result in wider war. Putin is unlikely to see the missile attack on Russia, which was defeated by Russian air defenses, as an excuse to teach Washington and Europe a lesson. Most certainly, Putin is not looking for an excuse to widen the war. Widening the war is the purpose of the American Zionist Neoconservatives. In the interest of not widening the war, Putin is likely to treat the provocation as merely a battlefield operation and not an attack on Russia herself. The question is: How much longer can Putin ignore Washington’s escalating attack on Russia? Another relevant question is: Will Putin’s ignoring of the latest provocation lead to another and another until the provocation is such that it cannot be ignored?
As readers know, I have emphasized from the beginning of the conflict in 2022 that Putin himself has widened the war by trying to limit it to Donbas, thus permitting the continuation of the regime in Kiev to continue fighting the war. By not promptly knocking out Ukraine, Putin permitted Washington and NATO to get more and more involved. Every weapon system Washington and Europe said would not be supplied to Zelensky was supplied. The long range missiles that President Biden said would not be permitted to strike inside Russia are now permitted, limited at first but certainly to be expanded. By the time Trump is in office, the situation can be too poisonous to be resolved. Who is willing to lose face in an agreement? The US and NATO or the Kremlin?
My answer to readers’ questions is that we are not yet at war with Russia, but that is the direction in which we are headed. What is driving us toward war is the neoconservatives’ agenda of US hegemony.
My view might be optimistic. Strong nationalist forces inside Russia resent the humiliations Putin has accepted. They resent the West’s attitude that Russia is dirt under its feet. Putin has support, but he is limited in the number of violations of Russian red lines he can ignore. I suspect that that limit is near at hand.
What can Trump do? He can call Putin, ask him to hold his response until Trump is in office and can cancel the missile permission. If Trump hasn’t already called Putin, Trump has betrayed his supporters.
To give assurances to Putin is not an easy thing for Trump to do. The American print and TV media and NPR would present Trump as helping Russia win the war with Ukraine by preventing US missiles fired from Ukraine into Russia. The entire CIA/FBI/Democrat/media “Russiagate” operation could be revived, which, of course, would distract Trump from his agenda.
Trump’s weaker-kneed appointments along with his warmonger appointments might begin criticizing Trump, eroding his support.
After 107 years of Western propaganda against Russia–Lenin, Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev–Americans see Russia as an enemy. Coming to peace with an enemy can easily be portrayed as a sell-out of the nation.
To turn from the question whether Trump can accomplish peace to the question whether he can accomplish an American restoration:
As I have explained, the United States is the Constitution. Without the Constitution, the United States does not exist. A geographical area (apparently without borders) still exists, but without the Constitution it is not America. It is something else.
For decades the US Constitution has been under fierce attack from liberal-left intellectuals, professors, law schools, political activists, politicians, and some judges. The US Constitution, once a revered document, has been misrepresented as a white racist entitlement to privilege that prevents Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion. For a couple of decades law schools have turned out graduates taught to see the US Constitution as a document that is in the way of progress. The 14th Amendment prohibits status-based privilege, such as advancement based on race, gender, and sexual preference, that DEI uses to destroy a merit-based system. The alleged privileges that white people are said to have are to be given instead to “people of color.”
Over the course of American history there have been occasions when the Constitution was breached in the name of “national security” or some other fake cause. But the attacks were repelled. Today the US Constitution is so weakly supported that it lacks the support of the US House of Representatives, the US Senate, and the President-elect Donald Trump himself. The oath of office to protect and defend the Constitution no longer has any meaning.
Trump has often emphasized that America’s internal enemies are more formidable than external ones. But do we now count Trump among them? Trump has lent his support to the attack on the US Constitution by House Republicans and Senate Democrats.
The latest attack on America has taken the form of the Antisemitism Awareness Act. This act which the Republican Speaker of the House got passed several months ago, and which Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer is trying to have passed as part of the defense appreciations bill, violates the First and 14th Amendments to the US Constitution by creating special protections for Jews by giving Jews and Israel immunity from criticism.
Under this act, apparently endorsed by President-elect Trump (see: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/11/18/trump-and-the-constitution/ ) universities that don’t suppress student protests against Israel’s massacre of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon will lose their accreditation and federal financial support.
So, here we have Trump, the President-elect on whom so much hope resides, disavowing the 1st and 14th amendments of the US Constitution. Trump might as well stand up publicly and tear the once sacred document into shreds.
The First Amendment guarantees free speech, but the Antisemitism Awareness Act cancels that guarantee.
The 14th Amendment requires equality under the law, but the Antisemitism Awareness Act renounces that by establishing a special class of people consisting of Jews that it is illegal to criticize., The 14th Amendment was passed to end white privilege over blacks. The Antisemitism Awareness Act establishes Jewish privilege over everyone else.
The Antisemitism Awareness Act replaces equal treatment under the law with status-based privilege. A country cannot be made great again by destroying its founding principles.