Jack Flaherty’s first stint in an Orioles uniform didn’t go well, as the right-hander struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings after Baltimore acquired him from the Cardinals at the 2023 trade deadline. However, it doesn’t appear that any hard feelings exist between Flaherty and the O’s, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo write that “both sides would be open to a reunion after Flaherty’s bounce-back season.”
Injuries marred Flaherty’s 2020-22 seasons, and his 2023 numbers are okay but unspectacular (4.43 ERA in 109 2/3 innings) even before his production cratered by the trade to Baltimore. He signed a one-year, $14MM deal with the Tigers last offseason with the goal of re-establishing his value for another quick trip into free agency, and that plan paid off in spades. Flaherty posted a 3.17 ERA over 162 innings for the Tigers and Dodgers, and another deadline deal that sent him to Los Angeles saw Flaherty capture a World Series ring with his hometown team.
Flaherty’s 29.9% strikeout rate, 32.1% whiff rate, and 5.9% walk rate were all excellent, while his hard-contact and chase rates were both well above the league average. Batters were able to square up Flaherty when they did make good contract (24 homers allowed, 7.7% barrel rate) and his fastball averaged only 93.3mph, but his modest four-seamer was mostly a setup pitch for Flaherty’s devastating curveball.
This isn’t the first time Flaherty has been linked to the Orioles this winter, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote a few weeks ago that the O’s viewed Flaherty as a potential backup plan if the team was unable to re-sign Corbin Burnes. Now that Burnes has officially signed with the Diamondbacks, it therefore isn’t surprising that Sammon and Woo write that the Orioles “recently inquired about Flaherty,” as well as other starters they might have on their target list.
How many free agents are on that target list isn’t clear, as Flaherty stands out as the top starter available now that Burnes is off the board. Flaherty is perhaps the only pitcher remaining who has clear-cut upside as a No. 1 starter, which is what the Orioles need for a rotation that is solid but lacking in a true ace. Of course, Flaherty’s inconsistent track record prior to 2024 isn’t exactly evidence that the 29-year-old is that kind of frontline pitcher, but it might speak to his talent that the O’s are still interested signing him even in the wake of the 2023 letdown.
Such pitchers as the Padres’ Dylan Cease and the Mariners’ Luis Castillo have been linked to the Orioles on the trade front, but acquiring those hurlers would cost the O’s in both prospects and (in Castillo’s case) some significant money. Signing Flaherty would cost Baltimore “only” money, and perhaps importantly, no draft picks since Flaherty wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer. Nick Pivetta is the last pitcher remaining who rejected a qualifying offer, and signing Pivetta would cost the Orioles their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft — a concession Baltimore was reportedly wary about giving up for Pivetta or any other qualified pitcher besides Burnes (who wouldn’t have cost the Orioles any extra compensation since he was their own free agent).
Tough to replace Burnes, got to do something!
Tarik Skubal for Gunnar Henderson?
no way. those trades dont happen.
That’s one of those deals neither team should think about.
Wow – one last dumb idea before year end.
Inexpensive ace for 2 years. Enjoy Zach Eflin as your ace. LOL.
Better than your foolish, idiotic trade proposal, Melcher17
4 years of a superstar every day player for 2 years of a starting pitcher is not a thing
2 years of Cy Young Triple Crown Winning ACE with a capital A,C and E. Inexpensive, young and durable.
Baltimore has Holliday to plug in at short.
What’s a better combo? Eflin and Henderson or Holliday and Skubal?
Then, turn around and pick up Dylan Cease… dang, the Orioles might actually stand a chance in the playoffs and not get swept by the Royals.
Interesting idea. I wonder how often a star is traded for a star? But you forget three things: all things equal a position star has more value, so a 1-1 trade would be a loser for the Os, Henderson has more remaining years of control, and Holliday is awful on defense. He would be a laughable shortstop. And he hasn’t shown any ability to hit yet. He has Billy Beane vibes all over him
Holliday is not capable of playing SS. Certainly not anywhere near the level Gunnar does.
Eflin & Henderson >>> Skubal and Holliday at SS. Even better Eflin+Gunnar+Holliday >>>>>Skubal + Holliday
holliday is not even proven himself yet
They lost because they had no offense whatsoever. The pitching was great. Catch a game sometime, maybe.
I think I would sign Pivetta at this point if I was the O’s. He might even take a 2 year deal. I think he is more consistent than Flaherty. Giving up a third round pick is not the end of the world and is less of a hit to the farm system than trading for a starter.
Pass.
He did such a great job the last time he was in town, what could go wrong? Ahahahaha!
Orioles fans.. you better hope this doesn’t happen.. this would be such a garbage and desperation move.. and a waste of money in my opinion
Then what do you call the Trevor Rogers trade…
Short-Sighted people can’t see past their own opinions
This is a meaningless post!
Hardly desperation. Traded a 4A outfielder and an unproven utility player for a controllable lefty that they think can return to earlier form. I really can’t understand the angst over this deal. Stowers will never do anything in the bigs.
Meanwhile no one talks about the fact that Eflin was the single best move of the deadline – with the possible exception of Tommy Edmond.
Loved the Eflin trade…
It’s bc it didn’t help right away. But agreed, it was essentially a no risk deal bc the assets given up were of almost no value
Thank you for sanity 🙂
Go look at the trade deadline from last year. They mailed it in a long time ago. They’re not serious about winning anything.
So idiotic
Let’s focus on facts – rather than drama. He has been a solid pro and his metrics last year were better than Burnes. You have to ignore flaming out late season in his first year back from 2 years of injuries – pretty typical.
He’s a quality stop gap while they wait for Bradish – their true ace if healthy to come back. They should also sign Means cheap and have him ready for a stretch run. He won’t cost much and upside is big.
The facts:
Last season
Burnes – 32 starts/194.1 IP/2.92 ERA/3.55 FIP/128 ERA+
Flaherty – 28 starts/162 IP/3.17 ERA/3.47 FIP/127 ERA+
About the same production. Burnes is much more durable.
Last 3 seasons
Burnes – 97 starts/590.0 IP/3.08 ERA/3.49 FIP/131 ERA+
Flaherty- 63 starts/342.1 IP/4.05 ERA/4.00 FIP/102 ERA+
Burnes 29% better and an order of magnitude more durable.
The durability argument is so ridiculous. I said in my comments that he missed most of 22 so there’s the difference in starts.
Every pitcher is durable until they finally get injured. In fact the more innings the more likely. Burnes just as likely to need TJ in the next 2 years as anyone in the game.
You also ignore the fact that every metric reflecting arm strength and stuff has been in steep decline for the last 2 years.
I’m not suggesting for a second that Flaherty is better than Burnes but the the 3 year numbers are useless. Last year the delta is no where close to your 29% and as an Os fan I’m not disappointed that they saved $250 million to sign multiple players over the next few years.
Just curious – other than citing 3 year WAR how many of Burnes’ starts did you actually watch last year?
tuck, pretty much everything you have said is ridiculous.
Its 34 starts in 3 seasons. Basically a full seasons worth of starts.
You have not even CHECKED the “metrics” of you would see that Burnes’ velocity is UP, he just stopped throwing a 4-seam and now throws a cutter.
What is useless is your opinion since you don’t know even the basic facts.
I didn’t cite WAR at all. I am a Padres fan and its quite obvious that I watched more of his starts than you did.
Thanks for the laughs. As I said the 34 starts is basically the 22 season – should I have used smaller words? Strike outs and swing and miss are down dramatically. Look at multiple pieces on this site for confirmation. Hard contact also up significantly and walks nearly doubled.
Watched virtually every start several live. Not saying he’s not a stud, he’s just not the pitcher he was 3 years ago and he sure as hell won’t be in 3 or 4 years. A 6 year or 7 as was offered for a pitcher his age is just bad business unless your Steve Cohen.
I will admit I thought your 29% reference was to WAR but now I see it was to the number of starts – which is factual but nearly irrelevant to go forward success.
Let me know if you need help finding those metrics you say don’t exist.
One such piece:
Some red flags have emerged in the right-hander’s profile since then, as he’s started to go deeper into games at the expense of rate-basis dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was during his Cy Young-winning campaign, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past five seasons until it ultimately fell to a roughly league average 23.1% this year.
Other stats
K per 9 since 2020 – 13.3, 12.6 (Cy Young), 10.8, 9.3, 8.4.
WHIP 1.022, 0.94, 0965, 1.069, 1.096.
Hits per 9 are up 2 over those years and homers doubled.
FIP in 2021 was 1.63 vs 3.55 last year.
Last year first since shortened 2020 with fewer than 200 Ks.
None of the stats are bad – just clearly a pitcher past his peak signing for 6 more years – and odds are he’s a league average pitcher by year 4 of that contract.
I’ve been saying that for about a year now. Burnes is an excellent SP. And if one wants to ignore the precipitous decline in Ks, go right ahead.
I understand that you have not paid attention but Burnes changed his pitch mix significantly to lower his pitch count. He has successfully learned to induce weak contact but still has the strength to blow 4SFBs past batters when he needs a strikeout.
FIP is obsolete. It was always a stupid idea to throw out 80% of data points and claim they are all “luck.” At least cite something modern and worthwhile like xERA.
You da man, PadsFans. Always enjoy reading your posts. You are a knowledgeable fan.
tuck, You should learn more words, at least a few stats, and how to read. You got everything wrong and tried to say I referenced a stat I never even mentioned.
Burnes is significantly better than Flaherty, including last season. Flaherty could still be a good signing, however.
What are options are there?
I wonder how much him speaking up against bad union leadership has affected his market. All other big pitchers without a QO are already locked up, I’m surprised Jack is still out there.
If he’s still trying to get $80-100MM, then I’m not surprised at all. I think the Tigers were concerned about his longevity since he was getting cortisone injections in his back in order to pitch. Otherwise, they would have tried to bring him back. Back issues in most cases worsen over time. If he is willing to take a 3-year deal at $60MM, that would be an easier pill for many teams to swallow.
The Tigers initially said they were interested in a reunion. Then the prices went up and they signed Cobb at a “low” amount and Harris has now called it done, saying they are no longer looking for SP. Detroit fans hopefully aren’t holding their breathe, waiting for something other than a fringe move.
This does not constitute an ace!
You don’t have to have an Ace. Your Ace is returning from TJS.
I’d argue that Grayson has potential to be the Ace. Just needs to post every 5th day
Agent: A team has interest and will pay you money.
Flaherty: The interest is mutual.
Blue Jays: We heard the O’s are interested. So are we.
Agent: What are you thinking about proposing?
Jays: Yes.
I’d be okay with this if they also swing a trade for Cease. Based on the market at this point, Flaherty could end up a bargain. Orioles will probably offer him a player option.
Cease is one year. No thanks
That’s usually my mindset, but the price has come down a bit from last season from what I’ve been reading.
For Cease? Nope. Morosi said at the Winter Meetings that Preller asked the Red Sox for Abreu, Mayer, and two MLB ready pitching prospects. If anything. Preller has put a higher price on Cease after his really good 2024 season than the White Sox did after his mediocre 2023 season.
Sox don’t have two MLB ready pitching prospects, so I don’t buy it.
I’d be okay with a Povich, Mountcastle, top 10 prosect deal for Cease. The O’s are clearly not going to deal Heston or Mayo, so this would probably be the best package they could put together. The team desperately needs a number 1. There are no guarantees when the injured starters get back.
Fitts and Gonzalez. Gonzalez was included in the Crochet trade.
Considering what Preller was asking for Cease from the Red Sox, that would not get the job done. Not even close.
Povich has little value after a 5.20 ERA/72 ERA+ last season and Mountcastle would be a negative with him being due a raise in arbitration and just 2 years of team control. Plus, the Padres have no need for a 1B/DH type player.
Also look at the Burnes trade. Orioles paid far more than you are suggesting. Shoot, they paid more than that for Rogers.
Cease isn’t getting traded. He’s worth 1/3 if what they want
How about Bradish who won’t return until 2026 after having TJ in June of 2024, McDermott, Young, Kjerstad, and Gary Sanchez for Cease and Peralta?
Certainly less than Preller was asking for from the Red Sox but a solid return for the Padres and Orioles nonetheless.
Povich has a lot of value after his strong August/September showing. He’s never going to be an ace, he was never supposed to be, but he had a 3.85 era with a big k rate and a much reduced walk rate. So, if anything, he may have increased his value last year.
The Morosi story is insane. The Sox not only don’t have two MLB-ready pitching prospects, they might not even have two MLB pitching prospects of any type.
That and the fact that the RS aren’t trading Mayer for one year of Cease, and probably wouldn’t trade 5 years of Abreu for one year of Cease.
Not to mention that SD already has a RF that is pretty good.
I think that is the point dan. He is worth it, just look at what the Orioles paid to rent Burnes, the Padres simply don’t want to trade him.
Povich had a 5.20 ERA with a 7.8K/9 in Baltimore after a 4.17 ERA in AAA and was never a top prospect. That he had 2 good starts in September doesn’t change his value. He gave up 10 ER in 8.1 IP in the 2 starts just before that 1st good start in September and 4 ER in 4.2 IP in the start immediately after it. That is 14 ER in a 20 IP stretch over 4 starts. His ceiling is a #5 starter.
Morosi might be insane. The pitching prospects were Fitts and Gonzalez. Gonzalez was part of the trade for Crochet.
PF- Can’t trade Sanchez until June at the earliest, I believe. I upvoted Josh111 for thinking along the right line, although (based on Preller’s perspective) I agree that it would take a lot more than Josh’s initial salvo.
It was his rookie season and he had to carry more of a load than expected due to the pitching staff injuries. I’m sure Baltimore would be open to including one of their top pitching prospects as well.
Basallo is blocked- use him as a headliner now while his value is peaked. Mountcastle, Basallo, Honeycutt, McDermott and maybe a lottery ticket arm like Trace Bright and I think “we” are cooking.
You keep your big dog prospects and obtain an affordable and legit ace for 1 year. The Pads don’t want to sell, so you’d have to knock their socks off. Basallo is the key.
lol
Padsfan. Good comedy.
Almost as funny as you telling me the pads are going to push their payroll up again for a 2nd straight year.
lol one year of Dylan Cease for Samuel Basallo ++++
Pads will enjoy the last year of cease and offer him a QO. Hopefully sasaki signs to keep that window open after cease and king walk.
Pads Fans
Morosi might be insane. The pitching prospects were Fitts and Gonzalez. Gonzalez was part of the trade for Crochet.
==========================
I wasn’t even sure we were gong to keep Gonzalez had we not traded him. He’s worth very little. I guess Fitts has some value, but he tops off as a #5. No big loss on either.
But SD wouldn’t get Mayer straight up and likely not Abreu either.
cease for one year. whether that’s a good move or not all depends on what the Orioles have to give up to get them. you should always field calls to see what the ask
You pair this signing with that Nick Gordon signing and the Orioles are slaying the off season!
Bring back McCant.
192 wins in 2 years children – way ahead of schedule on rebuild – best organization in baseball top to bottom – can you all RELAX
You are living in the past. This team will look very different without a switch hitting veteran, Santander, in the middle of the line-up and no true #1 to steady the rotation.
Kjerstad could be better than Santander but we’ll have to wait and see. I think Elias will trade for a good pitcher but maybe not Cease and maybe not a true #1. They need to do more than hope Bradish will be the true #1 whenever he returns.
Rodriguez, Sugano, Eflin, Povich, Suarez, Kremer, Rogers, McDermott with Patrick Reilly, Trace Bright, Brandon Young and Alex Pham all possibilities at some point during the season the O’s have depth. Replacing Burnes will be no easy feat but Flaherty would help
Burnes was not without risk – his metrics were in decline – it’s clear what he’ll be in year three years from now. He was a stud last year, but that $250 million can do a lot elsewhere.
There are reasons the Dodgers didn’t retain Jack, chief among them his inconsistency late in the season. Buyer beware. But I get that the O’s need innings.
Yeah, it’d either be 7 shutout innings or 5 runs in 3 innings. Too much Jekyll and Hyde….
That’s the story of his career. More like 3 or 4 shut out innings then one big bad inning where his head is not in the game. Also easily rattled. Saw him pitch against the Brewers where he was dominating until Ryan Braun stepped out of the box and called time during his wind up. Rattled Jack and he gave up a home run to Braun. Then the next 5 got on base and he was knocked out of the game. Cannot be counted on as a #1.
How many years ago? Ryan Braun? Yeah, I’m sure there’s no difference between then and now.
I saw him pitch against the Jays this year for Detroit and he was outstanding.
His first year was actually his best. He has never been as good since. Still weak in the brain with a great arm.
That sure is the truth. I’m glad he’s not coming back to LA.
You mean like every pitcher?
Burnes 15-9 2.92 Flaherty 13-7 3.19
Flaherty 10.5 Ks per 9 and better than 5 Ks per walk
Burnes 8.4 Ks per 9 and 3.3 K to walk ratio.
Facts are funny things –
Flaherty had a 4.36/94 ERA+ in the four years prior to his walk year. I don’t think he’ll be bad, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on someone that has such mediocre recent stats. Lot’s of guys disappear after a career-best walk year.
@luck 2 1.3 HR./9.
Funny, that.
Even funnier? 4.4 BB/9 om 2022=23, barely a 2 to 1 K/BB ratio. 1.586 WHIP, 4.84 ERA.
Hilarious, actually. I think you really meant, “selective facts are funny things…” If only peak years were the only things that counted.
By playoffs he was hit or miss out there, he was starting P that got rocked in WS Gm5. Put em in hole real quick. I was glad to see Dodgers not interested in reunion. Didn’t dominate enough. Thanks 4 WS n good luck.
4 yr 100 million opt out after year 2.
1 more year at that AAV seems like a price based on how much SPs are getting, 29yo and no QO….but let’s see if a bunch of teams bid him up since he’s supposedly best left.
No point of giving him an opt out if you give him a contract like that.
Flaherty is gonna be a “what were they thinking?” Contract
The Orioles are having a what were they thinking offseason so far.
@Jackalopal Bidding him up based on one good year since 2019?
Yeah, it’s likely to get ugly.
Would be a good replacement. Flaherty fip and xfip over the last 2 years 3.89 3.64
Burnes 3.68 3.67
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from for Flaherty, Fangraphs has 4.36 xFIP in 23 and 3.00 in 24.
Not a fan of his durability and streakiness, he’s only pitched over 160 IP twice in his career.
Fip and xfip over the last 24 months.
thats 2 years, which is what you said the first time
Sorry must have misunderstood your original comment, thought you were doing xFIP for each year. Even with 3.00 xFIP in 24 Flaherty was only worth 3.2 war.
Flaherty: 3.2 fWAR – 3.1 bWAR
Burnes: 3.7 fWAR – 3.4 bWAR
and as BronxBombers23 said, they have very similer FIP and xFIP over the past 2 years. Though burnes is definately more game changing, and stats dont tell the full picture
@energel Yeah, cherrypicking his one good year since 2019, folding it into 2023 to deceive regarding a nonexistent consistency, what could possible go wrong with spending $100m+ based on this fraudulent ‘argument’?
Last season
Burnes – 32 starts/194.1 IP/2.92 ERA/3.55 FIP/128 ERA+
Flaherty – 28 starts/162 IP/3.17 ERA/3.47 FIP/127 ERA+
About the same production. Burnes is much more durable.
Last 3 seasons
Burnes – 97 starts/590.0 IP/3.08 ERA/3.49 FIP/131 ERA+
Flaherty- 63 starts/342.1 IP/4.05 ERA/4.00 FIP/102 ERA+
Burnes 29% better and an order of magnitude more durable.
Yes, Burnes is more durable, but isn’t a much better pitcher, at least according to the stats over the last 1-2 seasons.
I don’t have much faith in Burnes’ declining K-rates, but the difference between the two is that Burnes is excellent every single year. His worst year was an ERA+ of 127.
Flaherty was excellent last year, but just a low #2, high #3 for most of his career. I have an inherent distrust of SPs having excellent contract years. Too much of a chance they are throwing for stats, with a disregard for their long-term health.
But still only 29, so he’s young.
@BronxBombers23 That’s a phony ‘stat,’ folding his 2024 into 2023 to make it seem like 2024 wasn’t his one decent or better year since 2019.
Anyone signing Flaherty is betting they’ll bet multiple 2024s out of him when there’s very little reason to believe that’s the case.
No, Burnes 23 and 24 fip 3.81 and 3.55 Flaherty 4.38 3.48. I never said that Burnes isn’t better, but the difference isn’t that big. Flaherty also dealt with injuries, which probably affected his performances. Counting on Flaherty to stay healthy is risky, but I would rather sign him to a 3/60 contract than giving Burnes that big contract.
He pitched really well for Detroit and I’d be stoked if they resigned him to fill the vacant #2 spot there.
Yes he did. I worry about his back, though.
I agree with that but the Tigers must know better than anyone how bad it is so if they signed him I’d take that as a good sign…if not then perhaps buyer beware is in order.
O’s in desperation mode now. Looks like the Jays when they floundered their contention window.
Not sure they are desperate with Eflin and Rodriguez sitting at the top of the rotation. We’ll see what that Asain they just brought over can do. If Jack is anything close to what he was last season they will be run away leaders in the AL East for certain. Book it. Mark it.
Not a bad top 3 with those two and Flaherty.
Wow dude. Chem finance your brain after that idiotic post.
Why don’t u suck my quarter pounder (u would like that knowing ur Lindors Bodyguard) also what is so idiotic about u small guy
Except the O’s have young talent that isn’t about to walk!
Rooting for the O’s. Burnes will be remembered for leaving
The O’s knew they were getting a rental and we’re not expected to give Burnes the amount of money he was projected to get.
Horrible idea if it isnt a 1 year deal. Hes had 1 year where he was good and mostly healthy. Would be better to trade for castillo and/or lopez now, than have to trade at the deadline to replace flaherty when hes either ineffective, injured, or both.
Crazy idea…
All (FA) pitcher contracts should be 1 year.
Pivettas next contract is already bad.
Career ERA nearly 5!
Yeah Baby
Honestly…I am all for it
REDEMPTION
Me and a Cheeseburger have reported mutual interest. Terms have yet to be discussed
Negotiations are being held up by a question of bonus structures- extra patties or extra special sauce- the cheese type and amount has already been agreed upon.
I’m getting word that there’s a vesting bacon option after hitting 4 bites. I’m also hearing rumors of deferred pickles?
Make sure they’re Bread & Butter pickles. Walk away if they only offer Gherkins.
My good sir you are one hundred percent correct. I know my worth
Mmmm….cheeseburgers….
A double double animal style from In-n-Out?
I’ll raise you a Culver’s double deluxe with Swiss cheese
Are you sure the cheeseburger really wants you?
Idk ask the contract offer they made me last night
Hope not unless a one year deal
20 years/$3.64B who says no?
i mean……… yeah?
Why havent Os been able to piece it together in playoffs? So many talented young players, prospects, burnes (for 1 yr) but disappointment in oct past couple yrs
Still plenty of time to W. Need more pitching
The curse of Jeffrey Maier.
@why – no, the curse of Peter Angelos.
Grinchelos.
I still want to punch him out!
“Why haven’t Os been able to piece it together in playoffs?”
“So many talented young players”
You answered your own question. Kids usually take a few trips to learn to win in the playoffs. An individual young guy can have success early, if on a veteran team, but a team full of youngsters is going to take their lumps.
They have a hard time attracting top free agent pitchers. I think it goes all the way back to when negotiations broke down with Mike Mussina. But I also think Burnes was never the guy. He simply wants to be close to home. They’ll probably need to trade for someone.
In all seriousness he really did pitch his way into the modern version of a mid tier deal, which would, at his age, be 4 years/$100M to 8 years/$220M, crazy as that used to seem.
mutual interest:
Mr. Flaherty, would you accept a boatload load of cash from us? Yes, I shall. Consider me interested.
Asking, because I honestly don’t know. But wouldn’t it be better for Flaherty to wait until after Roki signs? He’d have a few pitching starved losers to pick from.
It’s a roll of the dice- does waiting that long give him more or less leverage? Will teams just want to be able to say they spent money and pretend they landed a Big Ticket Free Agent Pitcher or will they wield whatever power they have over desperate free agents looking for a remotely acceptable deal and so a guy like Flaherty, who might have capitalized in a best case scenario with a 9 year/300.15M deal or will he be forced to take, say 2 years/$37M and be grateful to have just managed to get that?
It’s a toss up.
And if you think that 9 years/$300.15M idea is a bit extreme, think about the very unexpected, completely unjustified Patrick Corbin sweepstakes that took a guy who was projected to get like 4 years/$53M and it turned into 6 years/$140M
The new version of that would be a guy projected for like 3 years/$60M to convert that into 7 years/$224M, so if people around here are saying 4 years/$100M to 5 years/$150M, maybe that turns into 7 years/$245M etc and once that becomes the base line, someone throws in 2 extra years and a ton more money.
As he hasn’t signed yet, maybe he will.
We saw Snell press his luck last year, and ended up signing something akin to a 1 year pillow contract. Montgomery did the same- although he exercised his ’25 Option- but both took a hit on their potential earnings by waiting out the market. It’s a gamble to wait but it *could* pay off.
Pillow contract last year, looking for multi year deal this year. Not happening in Baltimore. Orioles already have two on staff that could get a multi year deal. Pivotal year for Rodriguez and to an extent Bradish in 2025.
If Os think they need to add another SP, their MO is one yr deal. I like Lorenzen.
Looks like the “GM of the year” Ellias has been sleeping all off season. Worst GM in the game. He is wasting the prime cheap years of their young players, its a shame. A rotation headlined by Akins, Rogers, and Bradish, that will show em!
You make twisted, inaccurate, stupid comments.
You’re a NYC baseball fan, so we understand.
I’d be cool with Flaherty as the Burnes replacemnet on a front-loaded high AAV 3 or 4 year deal with an opt out for the final year. It’s kinda crazy but 2025 is only going to be his age 29 season so he’d still be able to hit the market again with some prime years to sell if he shows he’s back to his TOR form for the long haul.
After we found out how from Morosi much Preller was asking for Cease, it is a certainty that Elias is not giving that up.
Maybe Castillo would be cheaper in prospect capital.
He was terrible with them last time go trade for a pitcher Mariner’s would be a team they should trade with
Why spend all those $100s of millions on multi-year deals? Take a chance on a bounce back year from Jordan Montgomery at 1 yr/$22.5M or less in a trade with the Dbacks.
@scott, you need to add a z to your screen name,
Love,
Mike Elias & co.
He can’t be as bad as he was the first time around, he’s definitely not my preferred option either but, the O’s have to do something. You don’t lose Burnes and replace him with merely a 35 year old Japanese control pitcher making the move from Japan and expect to be a better team than you were last season.
scruffmcgruff;
1. Starters In today’s MLB Starters cover 160-170 innings during the regular season. A teams pitching staff has to cover 1,400.
2. The job of a starter in todays MLB is to keep is team in the game for 4-maybe 5 innings. Anything beyond is gravy.
3. MLB today is a bullpen game.
4. Starters are dropping like flies with injuries. At the Winter Meetings a few weeks ago the 30 ML managers were shown a video behind closed doors in which the sorts of injuries which pitchers are having not only in the majors, but in the minor leagues as well was documented. In short, throwing a baseball is not a natural movement for the human body and this nonsense about throwing the ball harder and harder along with putting more and more spin on it is not working. Lately teams have been moving from allowing a starter 100 pitches a game max to 90. That will have minimal effect on the issue.
5. THROW AWAY THE DEPTH CHARTS, especially in the offseason. In the past 2 years the O’s have lost the following starters to injures: Bradish, Means, Wells. Even Rodriguez and Eflin missed starts with injuries during the stretch run. They also lost their bullpen stopper, which hurt them more – it changed the way Hyde managed games.
6. The way the sport is played today the large market teams have an edge during the stretch run. When their pitchers get injured they can trade their highly-publicized and overrated top farm prospects for healthy pitchers and still compete the following year. For mid and especially small market teams like the O’s, when they’re confronted with the same issue, they can’t afford to trade their best prospects unless they’re willing to go through another rebuild within 2 years….they need those affordable, controlled prospects to develop if they want to continue to contend.
6. Giving out a multi-year $100m-plus contract to any starting pitcher is simply a high-risk. The odds that said pitcher will even participate at near his top performance for even 70-80% of the contract is slim. Ever read any studies about that here?
7. For over 10 years here I’ve posted what’s the best solution to the issue, but that involves changing the rules. Which this screwball commissioner does to make the sport gimmicky to attract casual fans that don’t understand the game, but like to bet on it, buy merchandise, and eat gourmet food. That commissioner is not going to stand up for something that will actually make the game safer for the players.
Samuel – coming back from vacation, I wanted to catch up with this post.
1. That’s about right these days . Sad. 180-190 innings for the best.
2. The best starters should hand the ball over after 6 innings the vast majority of the time (since the average IP/start is under 6 now, average out a bunch of 6+ inning starts with a few clunkers) having given up 2 or less runs. That’s a 3 ERA. That gave your offense 2 trips through or more to score at least 2 runs, that’s giving your chance to win. 4 or 5 innings still leaves too much of the game up in the air.
3. Well if we keep adding roster spots so that there are 8 relievers per game, yes. Its ridiculous. But the starters still average about 5.4 IP/start so yes. The game goes more and more toward overmanaging rather than talent winning it.
4. I have spoken to this many time. The guys on the mound don’t pitch any more, they throw. There’s a difference. The injuries happen as they are trying to max speed and torque. The craftmanship is gone. While Nolan Ryan was overpowering, obviously he was still pitching even at his speed if he could throw 235 pitches, then go on 3 days rest then pitch another 15 years. Now they’re like the Valvoline oil commercial they used to have where the engine revs higher and higher until it turns red and seizes.
5. Rodriguez missed more than a few starts, 40% of the season (all of Aug and Sept). Eflin missed 10 days (?). But having 12 guys who can fill in as a back end starter is NOT the same as having rotation depth, and that’s where the Orioles continue to fall short because unlike other teams, they refuse to address it.
6. I disagree here. No team has over publicized and overrated its top farm prospects more than the Orioles over the years. Matt Wieters was the next Johnny Bench. Ben McDonald was going to dominate the 90s. We heard about those young pitchers in 2007, 08, 09. Oh, and Daniel Cabrera was the Dominican prototype of Randy Johnson – I’ll NEVER forget that one! I made a list once, there are dozens.
6a. Completely disagree. The extra years are added onto the contracts to spread the cost over a longer period. Burnes getting 6/210 is banking on spreading the cost for hopefully 4 productive years out over 6. If this is so stupid, then why do teams that are playoff fixtures and World Series winners like the Dodgers, Yankees, etc. continue to make these moves? Because they work. If it was so stupid, they would not do them. The Orioles think they are smarter than everyone, but the duct tape does not hold up, given the lack of “pieces of metal” in their trophy case of late. Instead they prospect-hug, only trading away when they have like 3 layers of redundancy, try to sell us a bill of goods that they are great at finding diamonds in the rough like Cole Irvin or that players who try hard like Mateo result in more wins than a 20 or 30 home run guy no matter how low his OBP gets because he’s fast. They cry poverty (no rich guy would buy a small market team if it wasn’t extremely lucrative, they just sold for 1.275B!), pocket revenue sharing money, and try to be “good enough”. The piece of metal is not awarded to the team who can field the lowest payroll and finish the regular season above .500.
7. Remind me which rule change this was? I agree overall, this commissioner is like a used car salesman: “oh you don’t want the arctic blue…if you’re taking the tribe across country Mr. Griswold, the Family Truckster’s the one you want!” And if they don’t fix the broadcasting issue MLB is falling into there’s going to be a much bigger problem for everyone.
Castillo also gives you quite a number of years of control. at this rate, top pictures are going to start eclipsing 30 and 40 million aav in the next few years
Top ones already do
Where’s that “no no please god no” emoji when you need it?
I thought Washington might be in on this guy. No QO.
In my order for my O’s and their pitching needs:
1)Trade for Cease
2) Smart, mutually assuring trade w/Seattle
3) Flaherty signing
Am I forgetting anyone?
Yes
O’s trade for Luis Robert Jr
Sign the Polar Bear
lol I don’t want Pete at all.
But a Maybe for Robert?
Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara.
At this point, it’s Flaherty or Lance Lynn. Think about that.
Need to do something, gota replace Burnes’ innings plus could use another P besides Flaherty. Cease trade would be perfect, there’s your #1.
It can’t be a thing where he pitches well everywhere EXCEPT Baltimore, right?
For those saying Castillo, will Flaherty cost more than 3/$68.75 million with a vesting option that could take it to 4/$93.5 million?
Flaherty doesn’t cost prospects, so there is that too.
I have a feeling the Orioles will wait until the trade deadline, and once they see their need for another starter, the prospect-hugging will have to loosen up.
If I am the Orioles Flaherty would be my 1st choice from day one.
We know all about the Orioles and their interest in everyone. If they require significant money or multiple years, they sign elsewhere.
These are the moves I’d like to see the O’s make to complete our rotation.
Jack Flaherty (3-years $90 million)
Max Scherzer (1-year $20 million)
John Means (1-year $3 million)
Cole Irvin (minor league deal)